Climatology Research Articles

Longitudinal assessment of extreme climate events in Kinnaur district, Himachal Pradesh, north-western Himalaya, India.

It is vital to keep an eye on changes in climatic extremes because they set the stage for current and potential future climate, which usually have a reasonable adverse impact on ecosystems and society. The present study examines the variability and trends in precipitation and temperature across seasons in the Kinnaur district, offering valuable insights into the complex dynamics ofthe Himalayan climate. Using Climatic Research Unit gridded Time Series (CRU TS) datasets from 1951 to 2021, the study analyzes the data to produce 28 climate indices based on India Meteorological Department (IMD) convention indices and Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Although there may be considerable variation in climate indices in terms of absolute values within different products, there is consensus in both long-term trends and inter-annual variability. Analysis shows that even within a small area, there is variability in the magnitude and direction of historic temperature trends. Initially, the datawere subjected to rigorous quality control procedures, which involved identifying anomalies. Statistical analysis like trend analysis, employing Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator, reveal significant (p < 0.05) increase in consecutive dry days (CDD) at 0.03days/year and decrease in consecutive wet days (CWD) at 0.02days/year. Notably, the frequency of heavy precipitation occurrences showed an increasing trend. Changes in precipitation in the Western Himalaya are driven by a complex interplay of orographic effects, monsoonal dynamics, atmospheric circulation patterns, climate change, and localized factors such as topography, atmospheric circulation patterns, moisture sources, land-sea temperature contrasts, and anthropogenic influences. Moreover, in case of temperature indices, there is significant increasing trend observed. Temperature indices indicate a significant annual increase in warm nights (TN90p) at 0.06%/year and warm days (TX90p) at 0.11%/year. Extreme temperature events have been trending upward, with monthly daily maximum temperature (TXx) increasing by 1.5°C yearly. This study enhances our comprehension of the global warming phenomenon and underscores the importance of acknowledging alterations in the water cycle and their repercussions on hydrologic resources, agriculture, and livelihoods in the cold desert of the northwestern Indian Himalaya.

Projecting marine fish distributions during early life stages under future climate scenarios

AbstractChanges to Earth's climate affect organisms globally; in marine systems, these impacts are seen through warming water temperatures, ocean acidification, hypoxia and frequent marine heatwaves. These effects may lead to the movement of species to more favourable conditions. While climate‐driven movement is well studied at the adult stage, how the early life stages of marine fish will respond to future variability is less clear. Many fish species are constrained by specific spawning locations or phenology. Spawning in certain locations allows for local retention of offspring, while precise timing can facilitate transport of offspring to nursery locations through seasonal circulation patterns. Our research investigates how changing oceans impact the location and timing of spawning of Bering Sea groundfishes over the next century. We used ROMS SST and SSS model output and NOAA survey data in species distribution models to hindcast and project distributions and centre of gravity for eggs and larvae of six groundfish species. Our analyses found that most of our study species exhibit flexible geography. However, the speed and direction of egg and larval movement did not track the speed and direction of their respective thermal niches. Hence, the projected distributional patterns of adult stages may be limited by their early life stages. This response is likely to be mirrored globally by other species with planktonic eggs and larvae. These results indicate that life history considerations are critical for the management of commercially important species, as effects on early life stages are strongly connected to the success or failure of adult populations.

Investigating the impact of tropical deforestation on Indian monsoon hydro-climate: a novel study using a regional climate model

AbstractThis study uses a state-of-the-art regional climate model (RCM) to examine how tropical deforestation affects the meteorology of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). Incorporating insights from existing research on deforestation by climate scientists, alongside evidence of environmental deterioration in semi-arid, hilly and tropical regions of Southeast Asia, this research seeks to elucidate the critical influence of anthropogenic reasons of climate change on the hydroclimate of ISM. Employing “tropical deforestation” design experiments with the ICTP-RegCMv4.4.5.10 RCM the study evaluates the effects on meteorological parameters including precipitation, circulation patterns and surface parameters. This experimental design entails substituting vegetation type in the land use map of RegCMv4.4.5.10 model, such as deciduous and evergreen trees in Southeast Asia with “short grass” to mimic tropical deforestation. Findings reveal that deforestation induces abnormal anti-cyclonic circulation over eastern India curtails moisture advection, diminishing latent heat flux and moisture transport, leads to a decrease in precipitation compared to control experiment scenario. Alterations in albedo and vegetation roughness length attributable to deforestation impact temperature, humidity, precipitation, consequently exacerbating drought and heatwave occurrences. Additionally, the study also explores deforestation-induced feedback on ISM precipitation variability. The study concludes that deforestation substantially alters land-surface characteristics, water and energy cycle, and atmospheric circulation, thereby influencing regional climate dynamics. These findings offer foundational insights into comprehending land-use and land-cover changes and their implications for climate change adaptation strategies.

Dealing with the Quiet Opposition? News Coverage of Climate Skepticism in Two Finnish Newspapers 1990–2021

ABSTRACT This article examines news coverage of climate skepticism in two Finnish newspapers between 1990 and 2021. It approaches climate skepticism as a professional problem that involves a tension between conventional professional ideals that underscore balanced coverage of conflicts and emerging ideals that stress communicating climate change responsibly. Content analysis focused on two core forms of climate skepticism that have remained relatively stable throughout the 31-year research period: evidence and process skepticism. The presence of all kinds of skeptical contents (skeptical arguments, arguments against skepticism, and descriptions of skepticism) was examined to evalutate the overall media visibility of climate skepticism. The analysis then focused specifically on the coverage of skeptical arguments. The role of sources as well as the use of journalistic voice in the presentation of skeptical contents was examined. This study elaborates earlier anecdotal accounts concerning the limited public role of climate skepticism in Finland. Four per cent of news articles included sources who were quoted presenting their own skeptical views. Skeptical arguments were mainly presented by quoting foreign sources whereas arguments against skepticism were presented by quoting domestic climate scientists. “Climategate” caused the most notable increase in the volume of skeptical contents during the research period.

Burden of Stroke Attributable to Nonoptimal Temperature in 204 Countries and Territories: A Population-Based Study, 1990-2019.

Stroke attributable to nonoptimal temperature needs more attention with dramatic climate change. The aim of this study was to estimate the global burden and distribution characteristics of the burden. In this ecological study, we collected data from the Climate Research Unit Gridded Time Series, the World Bank databases, and the Global Burden of Diseases study to estimate the distribution of burden. We used the joinpoint model, decomposition analysis, age-period-cohort model, panel data analysis, and health inequality analysis to assess the different types of stroke burden attributable to different climatic conditions. The burden of stroke attributable to nonoptimal temperature continued to grow, and aging was a key factor in this increase. In 2019, 521,031 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 402,433-663,996) deaths and 9,423,649 (95% UI 7,207,660-12,055,172) disability-adjusted life years [DALYs] attributable to stroke due to nonoptimal temperature were recorded globally. Globally, men (age-standardized mortality rate [ASMR] 7.70, 95% UI 5.80-9.73; age-standardized DALY rate [ASDR] 139.69, 95% UI 102.96-178.54 in 2019) had a heavier burden than women (ASMR 5.89, 95% UI 4.50-7.60; ASDR 96.02, 95% UI 72.62-123.85 in 2019). Central Asia (ASMR 18.12, 95% UI 13.40-24.53; ASDR 327.35, 95% UI 240.24-440.61 in 2019) had the heaviest burden at the regional level. In the national level, North Macedonia (ASMR 32.97, 95% UI 20.57-47.44 in 2019) and Mongolia (ASDR 568.54, 95% UI 242.03-1,031.14 in 2019) had the highest ASMR/ASDR, respectively. Low temperature currently contributes to the main burden (deaths 474,002, 95% UI 355,077-606,537; DALYs 8,357,198, 95% UI 6,186,217-10,801,911 attributable to low temperature vs deaths 48,030, 95% UI 5,630-104,370; DALYs 1,089,329, 95% UI 112,690-2,375,345 attributable to high temperature in 2019). However, the burden due to high temperature has increased rapidly, especially among people aged older than 10 years, and was disproportionately concentrated in low sociodemographic index (SDI) regions such as Africa. In addition, the rapid increase in the stroke burden due to high temperature in Central Asia also requires special attention. This is the first study to assess the global stroke burden attributed to nonoptimal temperature. The dramatic increase in the burden due to high temperature requires special attention, especially in low-SDI countries.

Global Atlas of Methane Metabolism Marker Genes in Soil.

Methane, a greenhouse gas, plays a pivotal role in the global carbon cycle, influencing the Earth's climate. Only a limited number of microorganisms control the flux of biologically produced methane in nature, including methane-oxidizing bacteria, anaerobic methanotrophic archaea, and methanogenic archaea. Although previous studies have revealed the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of methane-metabolizing microorganisms in local regions by using the marker genes pmoA or mcrA, their biogeographical patterns and environmental drivers remain largely unknown at a global scale. Here, we used 3419 metagenomes generated from georeferenced soil samples to examine the global patterns of methane metabolism marker gene abundances in soil, which generally represent the global distribution of methane-metabolizing microorganisms. The resulting maps revealed notable latitudinal trends in the abundances of methane-metabolizing microorganisms across global soils, with higher abundances in the sub-Arctic, sub-Antarctic, and tropical rainforest regions than in temperate regions. The variations in global abundances of methane-metabolizing microorganisms were primarily governed by vegetation cover. Our high-resolution global maps of methane-metabolizing microorganisms will provide valuable information for the prediction of biogenic methane emissions under current and future climate scenarios.

Remote Sensing and Modeling of the Cryosphere in High Mountain Asia: A Multidisciplinary Review

Over the past decades, the cryosphere has changed significantly in High Mountain Asia (HMA), leading to multiple natural hazards such as rock–ice avalanches, glacier collapse, debris flows, landslides, and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Monitoring cryosphere change and evaluating its hydrological effects are essential for studying climate change, the hydrological cycle, water resource management, and natural disaster mitigation and prevention. However, knowledge gaps, data uncertainties, and other substantial challenges limit comprehensive research in climate–cryosphere–hydrology–hazard systems. To address this, we provide an up-to-date, comprehensive, multidisciplinary review of remote sensing techniques in cryosphere studies, demonstrating primary methodologies for delineating glaciers and measuring geodetic glacier mass balance change, glacier thickness, glacier motion or ice velocity, snow extent and water equivalent, frozen ground or frozen soil, lake ice, and glacier-related hazards. The principal results and data achievements are summarized, including URL links for available products and related data platforms. We then describe the main challenges for cryosphere monitoring using satellite-based datasets. Among these challenges, the most significant limitations in accurate data inversion from remotely sensed data are attributed to the high uncertainties and inconsistent estimations due to rough terrain, the various techniques employed, data variability across the same regions (e.g., glacier mass balance change, snow depth retrieval, and the active layer thickness of frozen ground), and poor-quality optical images due to cloudy weather. The paucity of ground observations and validations with few long-term, continuous datasets also limits the utilization of satellite-based cryosphere studies and large-scale hydrological models. Lastly, we address potential breakthroughs in future studies, i.e., (1) outlining debris-covered glacier margins explicitly involving glacier areas in rough mountain shadows, (2) developing highly accurate snow depth retrieval methods by establishing a microwave emission model of snowpack in mountainous regions, (3) advancing techniques for subsurface complex freeze–thaw process observations from space, (4) filling knowledge gaps on scattering mechanisms varying with surface features (e.g., lake ice thickness and varying snow features on lake ice), and (5) improving and cross-verifying the data retrieval accuracy by combining different remote sensing techniques and physical models using machine learning methods and assimilation of multiple high-temporal-resolution datasets from multiple platforms. This comprehensive, multidisciplinary review highlights cryospheric studies incorporating spaceborne observations and hydrological models from diversified techniques/methodologies (e.g., multi-spectral optical data with thermal bands, SAR, InSAR, passive microwave, and altimetry), providing a valuable reference for what scientists have achieved in cryosphere change research and its hydrological effects on the Third Pole.

Climate model selection via conformal clustering of spatial functional data

AbstractClimate model selection stands as a critical process in climate science and research. It involves choosing the most appropriate climate models to address specific research questions, simulating climate behaviour, or making projections about future climate conditions. This paper proposes a new approach, using spatial functional data analysis, to asses which of the 18 EURO CORDEX simulation models work better for predicting average temperatures in the Campania region (Italy). The method involves two key steps: first, using functional data analysis to process climate variables and select optimal models by a hierarchical clustering procedure; second, validating the chosen models by proposing a new conformal prediction approach to the anomalies associated to each cluster.

Gauge-Optimal Approximate Learning for Small Data Classification.

Small data learning problems are characterized by a significant discrepancy between the limited number of response variable observations and the large feature space dimension. In this setting, the common learning tools struggle to identify the features important for the classification task from those that bear no relevant information and cannot derive an appropriate learning rule that allows discriminating among different classes. As a potential solution to this problem, here we exploit the idea of reducing and rotating the feature space in a lower-dimensional gauge and propose the gauge-optimal approximate learning (GOAL) algorithm, which provides an analytically tractable joint solution to the dimension reduction, feature segmentation, and classification problems for small data learning problems. We prove that the optimal solution of the GOAL algorithm consists in piecewise-linear functions in the Euclidean space and that it can be approximated through a monotonically convergent algorithm that presents-under the assumption of a discrete segmentation of the feature space-a closed-form solution for each optimization substep and an overall linear iteration cost scaling. The GOAL algorithm has been compared to other state-of-the-art machine learning tools on both synthetic data and challenging real-world applications from climate science and bioinformatics (i.e., prediction of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and inference of epigenetically induced gene-activity networks from limited experimental data). The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the reported best competitors for these problems in both learning performance and computational cost.

Indigenous and colonial influences on Amazonian forests

Societal Impact StatementGlobal climate models that incorporate carbon sources and sinks usually consider that forest uptake of carbon is in a state of equilibrium. Both historical and paleoecological records suggest that this is commonly not the case for Amazonia. Here, the impacts of colonial practices on Amazonian Indigenous peoples and forests are reviewed. Human activities affect forests' successional stages, trajectories, and species composition. By increasing the spatial coverage of paleoecological records that focus on pre‐ and post‐Columbian periods, the long‐term interactions between humans and Amazonian forests and their role in affecting Earth's climate may be better understood.SummaryLegacy effects left by the activities of Indigenous people in Amazonia are well known. Although severe, widespread, and recently occurring, the impacts left post‐1492 CE have been less investigated. We review the impact of colonial practices on Indigenous peoples and Amazonian forests. We suggest that forests comprise the sum of their past events, in a mosaic of different cumulative successional trajectories depending on the type, frequency, intensity, and timing of human influence. In regions with a history of minimal human influence, old‐growth species sensitive to fire would be the dominant landscape. In regions with high pre‐Columbian and low colonial influence, old‐growth forests carrying pre‐Columbian ecological legacies would be prevalent. Regions occupied by Indigenous groups post‐1492 CE would also carry similar ecological legacies. In regions influenced by the Jesuits, mid‐successional forests are expected to be enriched with cacao trees. In regions of latex extraction during the rubber boom, mid‐growth forests would present high abundances of early and mid‐successional species and depletion of some species. In deforested areas, we expect early successional forests with influence of exotic useful species. This patchwork of history probably plays a large role in shaping today's forests, and the biodiversity and carbon dynamics documented within them. Paleoecological work focusing on the last millennium, although scarce, has the potential to detect these mosaics of past human influence, and they should be considered when estimating forest ages and successional stages across the basin.

Climate Literacy in the Age of Global Climate Change: A Critical Inquiry into Shaping Climate –Literate Society for a Sustainable Future

Climate Change is a multidimensional challenge in the twenty-first century. The challenges venting out of the consequences of climate change are mainly due to a lack of information and knowledge to combat it. It is important to build a climate-literate society to address and combat the consequences of ecological catastrophe. There is a need for cutting-edge knowledge on understanding the nuances of critical components of climate science, which is the need of the hour. Henceforth, climate literacy is an understanding of anthropogenic impact driven by human activities that have led to planetary crisis; cultivating ecological skills and thought processes, with a pragmatic vision of providing a tool to build a sustainable world in the era of climate change world. The role of educators and academic institutions in nurturing environmental stewardship becomes a vital for taking a step forward to a sustainable future in the cocoon of sustainable development goals. This paper will explore and address the vision of cultivating climate literacy as a framework for sustainable development and addressing climate resilience in the age of global climate change. The aim of the study is to identify the efficacy of Climate Change Education (CCE) initiatives and to trace few of the best practices and methods for developing a climate-literate society. As we introspect into the future outcome of the present study, it will envision climate literate society and decision-making processes at individual, institutional, and governmental levels for promoting sustainability and millennium development goals. Thus, it calls for action, emphasising the urgency of humanising climate literacy to empower current and future generations to contribute meaningfully to the global environmental sustainability and resilience effort.

Characterization of the airborne aerosol inlet and transport system used during the A-LIFE aircraft field experiment

Abstract. Atmospheric aerosol particles have a profound impact on Earth's climate by scattering and absorbing solar and terrestrial radiation and by impacting the properties of clouds. Research aircraft such as the Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR) Falcon are widely used to study aerosol particles in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. However, transporting a representative sample to the instrumentation inside the aircraft remains a challenge due to high airspeeds and changing ambient conditions. In particular, for high-quality coarse-mode aerosol measurements, knowledge about losses or enhancements in the aerosol sampling system is crucial. In this study, the sampling efficiency of the aerosol inlet aboard the Falcon research aircraft is characterized for the first time with state-of-the art in situ measurements including sizing instruments operated behind the Falcon aerosol inlet and mounted at the aircraft wing not affected by the aerosol inlet. Sampling efficiencies were derived for different true airspeed ranges by comparing the in-cabin and ”full”-size-range particle number size distributions during 174 flight sequences with a major contribution of mineral dust particles during the ”Absorbing aerosol layers in a changing climate: aging, lifetime and dynamics” project (A-LIFE). Additionally, experimentally derived Stokes numbers were used to calculate the cutoff diameter of the aerosol sampling system for different particle densities as a function of true airspeed. As expected, the results show that the velocity of the research aircraft has a major impact on the sampling of coarse-mode aerosol particles with in-cabin instruments. For true airspeeds up to about 190 m s−1, aerosol particles larger than about 1 µm are depleted in the sampling system of the Falcon during the A-LIFE project. In contrast, for true airspeeds higher than 190 m s−1, an enhancement of particles up to a diameter of 4 µm is observed. For even larger particles, the enhancement effect at the inlet is still present, but inertial and gravitational particle losses in the transport system get more and more pronounced, which leads to a decreasing overall sampling efficiency. In summary, aerosol particles are either depleted or enhanced in the Falcon aerosol inlet, whereas transport in sampling lines always leads to a loss of particles. Here, we have considered both effects and determined the cutoff diameter for the A-LIFE transport system (i.e., the sampling lines only), the cutoff diameter of the Falcon aerosol inlet (i.e., the effect of the inlet only), and the combined effect of the inlet and sampling lines.

Opinion: New directions in atmospheric research offered by research infrastructures combined with open and data-intensive science

Abstract. The acquisition and dissemination of essential information for understanding global biogeochemical interactions between the atmosphere and ecosystems and how climate–ecosystem feedback loops may change atmospheric composition in the future comprise a fundamental prerequisite for societal resilience in the face of climate change. In particular, the detection of trends and seasonality in the abundance of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate-active atmospheric constituents is an important aspect of climate science. Therefore, easy and fast access to reliable, long-term, and high-quality observational environmental data is recognised as fundamental to research and the development of environmental forecasting and assessment services. In our opinion article, we discuss the potential role that environmental research infrastructures in Europe (ENVRI RIs) can play in the context of an integrated global observation system. In particular, we focus on the role of the atmosphere-centred research infrastructures ACTRIS (Aerosol, Clouds and Trace Gases Research Infrastructure), IAGOS (In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System), and ICOS (Integrated Carbon Observation System), also referred to as ATMO-RIs, with their capabilities for standardised collection and provision of long-term and high-quality observational data, complemented by rich metadata. The ATMO-RIs provide data through open access and offer data interoperability across different research fields including all fields of environmental sciences and beyond. As a result of these capabilities in data collection and provision, we elaborate on the novel research opportunities in atmospheric sciences which arise from the combination of open-access and interoperable observational data, tools, and technologies offered by data-intensive science and the emerging collaboration platform ENVRI-Hub, hosted by the European Open Science Cloud (EOSC).

Emphasizes the Importance of Safety Behavior by Optimizing Safety Leadership and Safety Knowledge through a Safety Climate

Purpose: This study aims to comprehensively examine and empirically test how safety behavior can be realized, by optimizing the role of safety leadership and safety knowledge so as to create a safety climate. Theoritical Framework: This study uses two theories as the logic of the relationship between the variables studied. Related to the role of safety leadership, the Full-Range Leadership Model theory is applied, while the planned behaviour theory is used to explain the resulting behaviour. Design/methodologi/approach: The population in this study were employees of manufacturing companies in Banyumas. Starting with providing willingness forms to 15 companies, only 9 companies were willing. While the sample involved with work safety management activities directly was 792 samples. The questionnaire was given openly and randomly, using accidental sampling. The questionnaires collected and included in the criteria were 427 respondents. Finding: That it has been empirically proven that safety behavior is influenced by safety leadership and safety knowledge through safety climate Research, Pratical &amp; Social Implication: This research has theoretical implications and practical implications. Theoretically, it is an additional knowledge of the application of work safety behaviour in manufacturing companies. While practically it is an evaluation for companies in implementing safety management. Originality, value: The originality of this research apart from the conceptual framework is also from the object of research which is carried out on several manufacturing companies with different criteria and implementing a work safety management system. And similar research has never been done especially in Indonesia

Seasonal to interannual variations of daily growth rate of a Tridacna shell from Palau Island, western Pacific, and paleoclimatic implications

Seasonal-interannual climate change is an important component of Earth's climate system and has a significant impact on ecosystems and social systems. However, the short-run of modern observational data limits our understanding of the seasonal-interannual climates on long-term timescales. The natural archives can provide information on climate change before the industrial period, but most of their temporal resolution is too low to capture the seasonal-interannual climate signals. Tridacna spp. is the largest marine bivalve, and its shell has the potential to trace climatic/environmental changes on a daily to interannual scale. In this study, we investigated the daily growth pattern of a modern Tridacna gigas shell (PL-1) from Palau based on laser scanning confocal microscopy images. The results showed that the growth pattern of PL-1 was affected by effective solar radiation primarily, followed by nutrients on the seasonal timescale. On the interannual timescale, the growth rate of the shell was modulated by ENSO, which affected the effective solar radiation and nutrients accepted by Tridacna. The growth rate of Tridacna PL-1 was accelerated during the ENSO positive phase, and vice versa. However, due to a lack of situ observations, the effects of nutrients on Tridacna and the symbiotic zooxanthella in detail need to be further investigated. This study indicates that the daily growth rate of Tridacna shells in equatorial regions may have the potential to reconstruct seasonal-interannual climate/environment variations.

The where, when, and how of ooid formation: What ooids tell us about ancient seawater chemistry

Ooids are a common constituent of carbonate rock throughout the last 3.2 billion years. The chemical and physical characteristics of ooids record essential details of the carbonate chemistry and hydrodynamic conditions of their depositional environment. As a result, ooids may be a powerful tool for reconstructing Earth's ancient climates and environments. However, lack of constraints on fundamental aspects of ooid formation, such as the role of abrasion, underscores the potential for additional discoveries utilizing ooids as paleoenvironmental proxies. Here, we use three-dimensional models built by serially grinding and imaging ooids to show how ooid shape changes during growth. We find that ooid abrasion plays only a small role in the formation of ooids, even in giant ooids, where the mass should cause abrasion to be most intense. A lack of abrasion during ooid formation suggests a greater sensitivity of ooid distribution and size to the chemistry of depositional environments. This insight enables us to harmonize our understanding of ooid formation with longstanding questions regarding their spatial and temporal distribution, as well as size variations. With a new database of ooid occurrences, we analyze the influence of seawater chemistry, carbonate shelf area, and evolutionary developments on ooid abundance in the Modern, Last Glacial Period, and throughout the Phanerozoic. Finally, we leverage our new understanding of ooid growth to show how ooid size, including giant ooids, can shed light on relative changes in alkalinity throughout the Phanerozoic.

A medical language for climate discourse

Innovative communication theories propose that we understand messages not by decoding their meaning but by inferring what speakers intend to express. However scientifically accurate the messages climate scientists have put forward, the appropriate inferences may not have been drawn by most of their audiences. One of the main reasons may be that scientific metaphors allow for multiple interpretations, yet, because of their expressive power, they impact discourses disproportionately. Climate communication took a path of euphemistic scientific expressions partially due to the noble scientific norms of self-restraint and modesty, but the hidden implications of climate jargon distort the way non-experts think about the heating climate. Consequently, the current climate jargon hinders informed decisions about Earth’s life support systems. Changing the softened expressions of climate language, from the cool of basic research to the heat and compassion of medical contexts, may allow for more productive public and political debates – which may lead to more powerful policy solutions. Speaking and thinking in medical terms could turn the perception of worst case scenarios from hypotheticals or doomism to life-saving interventions. We typically start reducing fever before it gets out of control, let alone crosses a threshold of potential death. Instead of putting on a positivist mascara, a calm and serious discussion of safety measures in medical terms, for example, talking about climatic tipping cascades as metastases, could foster a more honest evaluation of the required legal and regulatory steps to keep our home planet habitable.

Wizards of Climate Science: Ancient Magicians in the Court of Big Science

Myths inform real-world decision making. Scientific simulation models can do the same. Neither reflects their real-world targets perfectly. They are most useful in an apophatic sense: employing them as the best tools available without confusing their indications with Truth. The actions and choices of wizards often reflect those of scientists; drawing parallels is informative and several questions will be explored within this framework. How is a climate scientist to respond when offered a Faustian agreement promising limited insights? As scientists, how might we better communicate scientific limits regarding which aspects of the future we can see clearly and which we cannot? Should we risk casting doubt on the as-good-as-it-gets science underlying anthropogenic climate change? If an electorate requires certainty of a threat before it will vote for action, are lies of omission or misrepresentation justified? Is it ethical for scientists whose research is relevant to the policy process to pause their typical vigorous scientific criticism of overinterpretation by others (particularly in sciences downstream from physical science) when their science is thought not adequate for purpose? Should scientists merely advise, presenting the relevant science as neutrally as they can, or advocate by emphasizing evidence that supports their preferred course of action, or become activists overselling their science to achieve well-motivated policy ends by whatever means required?

Predicting the vertical density structure of oceanic gravity current intrusions

Understanding the dynamics and structures in the deep ocean is one of the remaining challenges in oceanography and climate sciences. We present results from large-scale laboratory experiments of rotating down-slope gravity currents intruding into a two-layer stratified ambient, performed in the largest rotating tank in the world, the Coriolis Rotating Platform in Grenoble. By means of velocity and density measurements, we show that no mixing occurs once the current has detached from the boundary. The shape of the vertical density profile in the stratified receiving ambient enables to identify two distinct regimes: the first issued by laminar transport through Ekman dynamics, the second by turbulent transport due to intermittent dense water cascading. Vertical density gradients reveal a piece-wise linear dependence on the density anomaly for the turbulent transport, suggesting an advection-diffusion process. For the turbulent regime, the scale height is deduced and an analytical model based on the critical Froude number is proposed to predict its value. Results show that the total thickness of the intruding current is on average 2.5 times the scale height. For laminar intrusions the scale height diverges whereas the thickness of the intrusion is a few times the Ekman layer thickness. Comparing the intrusion scale height with its measured vertical extension has led to a criteria to distinguish between laminar and turbulent regimes, which is corroborated by two additional independent criteria, one based on the sign of the local vorticity and the other based on the local maxima of the vertical density gradient. The model allows us to connect laboratory experiments to deep sea observations, gravity currents and Meddies and emphasizes the importance of laboratory experiments in understanding climate dynamics.

Locally narrow droplet size distributions are ubiquitous in stratocumulus clouds.

Marine stratocumulus clouds are the "global reflectors," sharply contrasting with the underlying dark ocean surface and exerting a net cooling on Earth's climate. The magnitude of this cooling remains uncertain in part owing to the averaged representation of microphysical processes, such as the droplet-to-drizzle transition in global climate models (GCMs). Current GCMs parameterize cloud droplet size distributions as broad, cloud-averaged gammas. Using digital holographic measurements of discrete stratocumulus cloud volumes, we found cloud droplet size distributions to be narrower at the centimeter scale, never resembling the cloud average. These local distributions tended to form pockets of similar-looking cloud regions, each characterized by a size distribution shape that is diluted to varying degrees. These observations open the way for new modeling representations of microphysical processes.