Climate-related Risks Research Articles

Exploring Climate Health Risks and Adaptations among Vulnerable Populations in Israel’s Negev Desert

Abstract Background Climate change represents the paramount challenge to global health, disproportionately impacting particular vulnerable individuals and communities. By identifying and elucidating disparities in health-related climate risks among these groups, we can facilitate the development of appropriate and equitable climate adaptation strategies. This research identified climate-related risks, health perceptions and needs, and behaviors among Jewish and Bedouin populations in the Negev Desert, a region highly susceptible to climate change, located at the intersection of geographical and social marginality. Methods Ten focus groups (n = 69) among vulnerable Jewish and Bedouin residents were conducted and systematically analyzed to identify disparities in health-related climate risks and behaviors. Vulnerabilities were defined based on income, age, health status, living environment, and outdoor activities. Results The findings highlight both shared and distinct difficulties and barriers vulnerable Jewish and Bedouin Negev residents face in the context of climate-related health risks. Key themes that emerged address: a) the direct and indirect impacts of climate-related events on health and well-being; b) the exacerbation of climate-related health risks by existing vulnerabilities and systemic barriers; c) the pivotal role of community resources in coping strategies; and d) lack of trust in the state and its institutions which underpin climate-related experiences. Conclusions The complexity of coping with climate change encompasses individual, community, and national/institutional levels. Vulnerable populations’ experiences with climate change are impacted by factors such as poverty, social marginality, violence, and barriers to accessing healthcare and other services, and is not a standalone phenomenon. Therefore, climate change adaptation and mitigation cannot be distinguished from other challenges impacting the health and well-being of populations. Key messages • Climate adaptation efforts must integrate with broader social and health strategies to effectively support vulnerable groups. • Community resources and trust in institutions are crucial for vulnerable populations facing climate change impacts.

5.D. Scientific session: Climate Change and Inequalities: Addressing Intersections and Impacts

Abstract Climate change poses one of the greatest challenges of our time, with far-reaching implications for environmental sustainability, social equity, and economic development. In recent years, growing attention has been paid to the intersecting dynamics between climate change and inequalities, recognizing that vulnerable populations are disproportionately affected by climate-related risks and impacts. This workshop aims to explore the multifaceted relationship between climate change and inequalities and examine the root causes of disparities. In this workshop we will explore intersectionality by examining how climate change intersects with various forms of inequality, including socio-economic and health status, gender, age, indigenous status, and geography, shaping differential vulnerabilities and experiences of climate impacts. This workshop aims to facilitate dialogue, knowledge exchange, and collaboration among public health researchers and professionals. We offer a unique opportunity to deepen our understanding of the complex interplay between climate change and inequalities, shedding light on overlooked aspects [?]. By bringing together diverse perspectives and expertise, the workshop aims to generate actionable insights and solutions that promote social justice, sustainability, and human rights in the face of climate change. The presentations in this workshop are thematically interconnected, addressing key aspects of climate change and inequalities from multiple angles. Topics include: Gender and climate justice, Climate change adaptation equity, Legal perspectives on climate change and inequalities and Climate Change Impacts on Respiratory Health. In conclusion, this workshop serves as a critical platform for advancing understanding, dialogue, and action on the intersection of climate change and inequalities. Key messages • Climate change interacts with socio-economic, health, gender, age, indigenous status, and geography, influencing vulnerabilities and impacts. • Vulnerable populations bear a disproportionate burden of climate change effects, including individuals with pre-existing lung conditions and children.

Climate change and health vulnerability assessments to increase regional climate resilience

Abstract Background The impacts of climate change on health and healthcare systems exhibit complex interrelationships, varying across time and space. Population groups already disadvantaged due to their demographics, health, socioeconomic status, or geographical location tend to be particularly vulnerable to climate-related health risks. Our work aims to develop a method for a systematic quantitative vulnerability assessment to make regional vulnerabilities comparatively measurable. Methods Building on the WHO framework on Climate Change and Health Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment (2021) a data mapping process was carried out to identify and validate vulnerability factors and quantitative indicators on a small-scale spatial resolution for the five dimensions: demographic, socioeconomic, biological/health, sociopolitical, and geographic/climate. Regional vulnerability scores for each indicator were calculated and visualized as geographic maps and circular barplots to allow for easily understandable interpretation. Results A set of 25 quantitative vulnerability indicators from a multitude of data sources - combining register data, survey data, and geospatial data - was compiled. Main challenges were the identification of sociopolitical vulnerability factors suitable for Austria and data availability on a small-scale level. The indicator set was used to identify regions that are particularly vulnerable due to their population composition, disease burden, and geographical location (e.g. regions in Eastern Austria with high shares of persons < 65 years of age, unemployment, and heat days). Conclusions Systematically assessing vulnerabilities in key dimensions is central to identifying regionally specific pressure points, allowing for a quantitative baseline to derive adequate and tailored climate change adaptation measures to sustain future health. Systematic assessment provides essential insights for policymakers, public health officials, and disaster management agencies.

Climate-related risk to maize crops in China from Fall Armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda

AbstractThe Fall Armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, invaded China late in 2018 and was responsible for substantial crop losses, especially to maize. This work focuses on the suitability of climate across China for Fall Armyworm survival and spread. It uses climate metrics derived with guidance from experts to enable assessment of the risks posed by Fall Armyworm on maize production in different regions of China. The locations and time of year when temperature conditions are within a viable range for Fall Armyworm survival (minimum temperature higher than 9.7$$^\circ$$ ∘ C and maximum temperature lower than 39.2$$^\circ$$ ∘ C) are used to estimate the spatial distribution of winter breeding and overwintering zones, which helps understand the regions and timing of Fall Armyworm migration risk into northern maize production regions. In addition, meridional wind conditions across the Yangtze River basin area are assessed, and a metric of migration potential from the winter breeding and overwintering regions in the south towards northern regions with maize production is established. Results show that temperature during the winter months currently limits Fall Armyworm winter breeding populations to the very southern regions of China (and bordering countries to the south). However, due to the consistent timing and direction of the East Asian Summer Monsoon winds, the Fall Armyworm could easily be directed northwards to the Yangtze River basin during summer months with a peak in July. For this reason, pest management actions against the Fall Armyworm on summer maize should be taken.

From the first European Climate Risk Assessment to action in policy and practice

Abstract The first European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA), produced by the European Environment Agency in March 2024, engaging nearly 100 authors across Europe, highlights health among the most at-risk sectors. According to the structured risk assessment that was conducted to support the transparent identification of priorities for policy action, more and urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from heat indoors and outdoors; from wildfires and outbreaks of vector- and water-borne diseases. The responsibility for managing risks lies both with the EU and Member States, and the policy readiness varies depending on the risk. The European Climate and Health Observatory, set up to better understand, anticipate and prevent climate risks to human health in Europe, in the most recent report ‘Responding to climate change impacts on human health in Europe: focus on floods, droughts and water quality’ provides in-depth analyses of some climate-related risks to health and presents examples of responses to them in both policy and practice. Both assessments emphasise that without fast and systemic action to increase societal resilience, the health impacts of the changing climate will worsen, affecting already disadvantaged or vulnerable groups the most. Health and health-determining sectors have the opportunity to address the health impacts of climate change by, among others, increasing the climate resilience of health systems; developing, updating and implementing national health adaptation plans; and supporting the education and training of public health and healthcare professionals on climate change threats. At the same time, addressing health impacts from climate extremes requires responses across sectors, actors and spatial scales.

Assessing the current health effects of climate change in the Netherlands

Abstract The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) has assessed the current effects of climate change on health as part of a national sector-wide process towards updating the Dutch National Adaptation Strategy. Besides health, this process includes assessing the risks of climate change for water management, agriculture, the built environment, nature and other sectors. It will provide a basis for policy, for prioritising the most urgent risks and for long-term risk monitoring. Six climate-related health topics were assessed for this update: heat, air quality, mental health, UV radiation, pollen allergies and infectious diseases. To allow comparison of the impact and likelihood of the climate-related risks across sectors, a format for factsheets on climate risks had been provided. Following this format, for each climate-related health topic we considered the climate threat, secondary effects, exposure, vulnerability, adaptive capacity, impact and cascading effects. The magnitude of the health impacts was categorised per topic as low (< 10,000 people affected; 0 - 10 seriously injured/dead), medium (10,000 - 100,000 people affected; 10 - 100 seriously injured/dead) or high (>100,000 people affected; >100 seriously injured/dead). The likelihood of these impacts was then described as well as possible black swan events or tipping points. Finally, the policy context was outlined, including possible maladaptation, lock-ins, and equity aspects, followed by quality assurance considerations. For all topics, negative health impacts are already occurring. However, the magnitude of the impacts cannot yet be accurately quantified. In this presentation, we will discuss the results of this assessment and explore the pros and cons of being part of a sector-wide process.

8.C. Scientific session: Health system resilience: A Planetary Health perspective

Abstract Planetary Health is a collective and unifying approach to balance the interlinkages between human health, political, economic and social systems as well as the natural systems of our planet, the importance of which is growing in the context of climate change in European countries and beyond. Yet, there is a dearth of of research linking Planetary Health to health systems’ resilience, particularly from a public health lens. With the number of studies growing regarding impacts of climate change on health, the question remains how health systems need to be prepared, focusing for example on the emergence of infectious diseases as well as the triple crises of biodiversity loss, pollution and climate change. In addition, tools to assess climate-related risks developed at international level, such as the vulnerability, adaptation and capacity assessment developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) have rarely been piloted in European countries. In this workshop, firstly evidence is presented on the status quo of how climate change impacts health and emerging infections in Europe and at global level. Secondly, the workshop provides insights into how tools to assess vulnerability and resilience of health systems in the context of climate change may be used in the European context. Thirdly, resilience is assessed against evidence emerging from the triple environmental crises of biodiversity loss, pollution and climate change. Key messages • In a planetary health lens, using mixed methods to consider climate change vulnerability of different population groups and adaptation potentials are key to address current complex health challenges. • Synergistic solutions and joint working across climate and health offer opportunities for greater health system resilience and population health impact.

Transitioning the grid for climate change: power transmission futures and grid justice

Abstract Amid the ongoing international boom in renewable power generation, debates over the future of the grid are gaining increasing attention in the United States and beyond. Climate change poses parallel but entangled questions for the large-scale movement of electricity. On the one hand, grid operation is a profoundly altered undertaking in renewables-dominated grids, bringing new management challenges around multi-directional flows, variability, bids for long-distance renewable power transmission, and more. On the other hand, electricity operators and users simultaneously face new climate-related disruptions, repair needs, and risks. In this paper, we explore an important set of energy and climate justice debates emerging around these combined decarbonization and grid resilience challenges, particularly concerns related to high-voltage transmission in the United States and other countries with developed but aging grids. We consider questions of transmission grid 1) access, 2) ownership, 3) siting, and 4) scale/rescaling. We illustrate these issues via the exemplary case of New York State, as the state has become a high-profile focus for debates around grid congestion, rising financial sector ownership of transmission projects, and siting justice issues, as well as for varying progressive alternatives in campaigns for both large-scale public power and decentralized ‘non-wires’ solutions.

Climate-Related Risks and Agricultural Yield Assessment in the Senegalese Groundnut Basin

Climate change and variability pose significant threats to agricultural production, particularly in regions heavily dependent on rainfed agriculture like Senegal. The problem addressed in this study revolves around the impact of climate-related risks on agricultural yields in the Senegalese Groundnut Basin as a key agricultural region. Daily rainfall, temperatures, and yield over 1991–2020 were used. The data were analyzed using multiple regression, trend analysis, and correlation approaches. The results indicate that the overall seasonal precipitation increases over time (98 mm in the north and 103 mm in the south). However, we found that the south Groundnut Basin has a much slower seasonal precipitation rate than the northern zone. Our results also show that the northern zone exhibits a more consistent and predictable growing season, with onset and offset, in contrast with the southern zone, which shows higher variability. The analysis further reveals that both the northern and southern zones are experiencing a warming trend, with the southern zone showing a more pronounced increase in maximum temperatures (+0.7 °C) than to the northern zone (+0.4 °C). Estimates from the regression analysis revealed that total seasonal precipitation and maximum temperature positively and significantly influence groundnut, millet, and maize yields in the northern and southern zones. All the other weather-related parameters have different influences depending on the zone. These findings highlight the heterogeneous nature of the study area and the significant role climatic factors play in crop yield variability in the Groundnut Basin. Understanding these influences is crucial for developing targeted agricultural strategies and climate adaptation measures to mitigate risks and enhance regional productivity. The study provides valuable insights for policymakers and farmers aiming to improve crop resilience and sustain agricultural outputs amidst changing climatic conditions.

Modeling climate-related global risk maps of rice bacterial blight caused by Xanthomonas oryzae (Ishiyama 1922) using geographical information system (GIS).

Rice is a critical staple crop that feeds more than half of the world's population. Still, its production confronts various biotic risks, notably the severe bacterial blight disease produced by Xanthomonas oryzae. Understanding the possible effects of climate change on the geographic distribution of this virus is critical to ensuring food security. This work used ecological niche modeling and the Maxent algorithm to create future risk maps for the range of X. oryzae under several climate change scenarios between 2050 and 2070. The model was trained using 93 occurrence records of X. oryzae and five critical bioclimatic variables. It has an excellent predictive performance, with an AUC of 0.889. The results show that X. oryzae's potential geographic range and habitat suitability are expected to increase significantly under low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. Key climatic drivers allowing this development include increased yearly precipitation, precipitation during the wettest quarter, and the wettest quarter's mean temperature. These findings are consistent with broader research revealing that climate change is allowing many plant diseases and other dangerous microbes to spread across the globe. Integrating these spatial predictions with data on host susceptibility, agricultural practices, and socioeconomic vulnerabilities can help to improve targeted surveillance, preventative, and management methods for reducing the growing threat of bacterial blight to rice production. Proactive, multidisciplinary efforts to manage the changing disease dynamics caused by climate change will be critical to assuring global food security in the future decades.

How Does Legal Culture Matter for Climate Mobilities? A Case Study in an Unplanned Coastal Settlement in Urban Mozambique

This article responds to the general neglect of legal culture in the study of climate mobilities. It presents a case study of climate mobilities in an unplanned settlement in Maputo, Mozambique, exploring how legal culture influenced residents’ decision-making processes as they navigated climate-related risks in their daily lives. We demonstrate that legal culture can facilitate climate mobilities. However, we argue that the role of legal culture in enabling climate mobilities is potentially very complex. Our case study uncovered a nuanced ‘ecosystem’ of land laws in Mozambique, comprising two official systems – formal and informal. Despite their contradictory substantive content regarding land rights, these systems functioned symbiotically, allowing residents of unplanned settlements to mitigate the effects of climate risks. This apparent paradox is explained through the analytical lenses of jurisdiction, scale and temporality. We also argue that this ‘ecosystem’ of land laws can only fully be understood within the broader context of Mozambique's political economy, which attracts foreign investment and promotes urban development, often at the expense of those living in unplanned settlements. Future research into the significance of legal culture for climate mobilities must not only be attuned to the plurality of legal orders in play but also consider the scales and temporalities through which they operate. Furthermore, they must also interrogate the interplay between law and broader political, economic and social contexts.

Climate Change Effects in Stock Markets

Climate change significantly impacts global stock markets through both short-term extreme weather events and long-term climate shifts. This study examines the relationship between CO2 emissions and stock returns across 19 countries from 2001 to 2020 using regression analysis. The findings also reveal a positive correlation between CO2 emissions and stock returns, indicating that investors anticipate higher returns to offset climate-related risks. This suggests that higher CO2 emissions drive investor expectations for increased returns to compensate for potential economic losses. The study highlights the importance of balanced emission reduction strategies and promoting green finance to support sustainable economic growth. Additionally, it underscores the need to integrate climate risks into financial decision-making, offering valuable insights into the financial implications of climate change and guiding policymakers and investors in addressing these challenges. By providing empirical evidence on the link between CO2 emissions and stock returns, this research enriches existing knowledge and emphasizes the financial risks and opportunities presented by climate change. The study's results align with the carbon risk premium theory, which posits that investors demand higher returns from companies with higher carbon emissions. This study advocates for policies that balance economic growth with environmental sustainability, promoting green finance initiatives to facilitate the transition to a low-carbon economy and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on financial markets.

Assessing Subseasonal Forecasts of Dry Spells and Heatwaves at the Regional Scale in Brazil

This study evaluates the performance of subseasonal forecasts for dry spells and heatwaves at a regional scale in Brazil. The forecasts’ verification was designed to provide end-users with relevant information about the forecasts’ quality. The U.K. Met Office model was assessed using a significant sample of weekly forecasts: 552 for dry spells and 240 for heatwaves. The analysis reveals that the overall performance of the forecasts is low, with a chance of detecting an event close to 0.2, indicating that only one out of five observed dry spells is accurately predicted on average. The application of quantile mapping corrections demonstrates improvements in predicting shorter dry spells (up to 5 days) and longer lead times, although the timing of these forecasts often remains inaccurate, leading to increased false alarms. A significant improvement in the forecast quality occurs when categorization by duration is disregarded. The detection chances increase to 0.5−0.7 for dry spells and 0.5 for heatwaves. The Brier Score indicates that the probabilistic forecasts issued by the model are equivalent or less skilful than climatological probabilities. Overall, the findings underscore the challenges in forecasting dry spells and heatwaves in Brazil and highlight the need for ongoing improvements in forecasting methodologies to enhance their reliability and utility for regional decision-making. This research contributes to understanding subseasonal climate forecasting and its implications for managing climate-related risks in Brazil.

Analyzing the Relationship between Agricultural AI Adoption and Government-Subsidized Insurance

Due to the increased unpredictability and severity of weather patterns caused by climate change, traditional farming practices and risk management strategies are becoming increasingly inadequate. In this paper, we explore the literature to understand the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) in mitigating climate-related agricultural risks and the pivotal role that public institutions play in encouraging farmers to adopt such technologies. We propose a framework to integrate AI into government-subsidized insurance structures, focusing on reduced premiums through government intervention. We argue that AI’s potential to reduce the uncertainty and severity of climate-induced damages could lower the overall risk profile of insured farmers, thereby justifying lower premiums in the long run. We further discuss the implications of such policies on insurance markets, agricultural sustainability, and global food security. Our initial exploration contributes to the literature by addressing a relatively underexplored intersection of two critical fields—agricultural insurance and artificial intelligence—suggesting directions for future research.

Peace in an extreme climate: How climate-related security risks affect prospects for stability in Lake Chad

The lake Chad region faces a humanitarian crisis with simultaneous risks coming from conflict and fragility. Climate change is compounding the many political, environmental, economic, and security challenges facing the region, exacerbating the already complex security challenges. Climate change is causing higher temperatures and greater fluctuations in rainfall patterns, making it harder for communities around Lake Chad to sustain their livelihoods. At the same time, the conflict between armed opposition groups and state security forces is increasing people’s vulnerability to climate change risks and undermining traditional coping mechanisms. This article presents the findings of the climate-security nexus assessment of the Lake Chad region to inform response options for the region. We conducted locally grounded, participatory conflict analysis. The conflict analysis is based on 229 in-depth one-to-one interviews, which have been conducted by a locally-led research team with affected communities around Lake Chad in all four countries of the region (Cameroon, Chad, Niger, Nigeria). It contributes to an evidence base to assess the specific ways climate change interacts with the risk landscape, systematically analysing how climate change shapes risks and determining appropriate responses for the Lake Chad region. The article sets out four climate-fragility risks: (i) Climate and ecological change increase livelihood insecurity; (ii) Vulnerability heightens as conflict and fragility strain coping capacities.; (iii) Resource conflicts rise due to scarcity.; and (iv) Livelihood insecurity fuel recruitment into armed groups. We argue that the success of stabilisation efforts to end violence in the region hangs on their ability to account for climate risks affecting Lake Chad.

Econometric Analysis and Intercropping Nutri-Cereals with Legumes (Urad Bean, Arhar) on Climate Resilience in North Eastern Zone of Tamil Nadu

Background: Nutri cereal - Legume intercrop systems are particularly beneficial in North Eastern Zone of Tamil Nadu, which are characterized by high levels of malnutrition, resource limitation and rainfall variability. These conditions are further exacerbated by climate-related risks and uncertainty. Apart from enhancing water and nutrient use efficiency, improving soil fertility and financial gains, Millet-legume intercrop systems have become a better bet for increased food and nutrition security in marginal farming communities. Methods: A study conducted during the year of 2022 to 2024 at the Center of Excellence in Millet, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Athiyandal, Tamil Nadu. The study evaluated various intercropping ratios of finger millet with black gram and red gram across seven treatments, focusing on productivity, compatibility and economic viability. Result: Results indicated that intercropping finger millet with black gram at a 4:1 ratio produced taller plants (92.7 cm), more protective tillers (5.7 per plant), extensive root systems (19.9 cm), and higher chlorophyll content (3.67 mg/g). This combination resulted in the highest equivalent grain yield (2895 kg/ha) and demonstrated a favourable benefit-to-cost ratio (2.84), highlighting its potential for improving profitability and soil fertility. Conversely, intercropping with red gram yielded lower finger millet yields and less favourable economic returns, underscoring the importance of selecting suitable intercrops to maximize agricultural productivity and sustainability.

ESG and climate-related risks versus traditional risks in commercial banking: A bibliometric and thematic review

The aim of this study is to classify scientific research on the impact of ESG and climate-related risks on the conduct of the banking business. The systematic literature review was based on a bibliometric analysis of articles found in the Scopus and Web of Science databases. The search was confined to materials published between 2000 and August 2023. After applying criteria limiting the search, the final result was 869 unique literature items which were later analysed towards establishing the relationship of ESG and climate-related risks (‘new banking risks’) with other (so-called ‘traditional’) banking risks and identifying research gaps at the interface between traditional and new banking risks. This article introduces a variety of findings, including the most productive authors, organisations, countries and journals, the most cited articles and keyword distribution. In addition, a map of the evolution of the approach to ESG risk in banking was constructed on the basis of the literature review. The study identified 11 clusters of banking risk influenced by ESG risk and 10 clusters of banking risk affected by climate-related risk.

Ukraine’s water security under pressure: Climate change and wartime

Ukraine’s water resources depend on external water flow and are unevenly distributed across the country. Water security in Ukraine is threatened by climate-related risks, including droughts and floods, resulting in substantial economic losses. But the greatest risks to water security are posed by military operations. Russia’s occupation of the southeastern part of the territory of Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea in 2014, along with the start of a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, further worsened the state of Ukraine’s water resources. The destruction of the Kakhovka reservoir deprived Ukraine of 10% of its water resources, which were used to support the agricultural and industrial South of Ukraine. It has caused a loss of access to quality drinking water for 6 million people in Ukraine and more that 13 million people have a limited access to water for satisfying sanitary and hygienic needs. The continuation of the war will have multiple negative sustainability implications not only in Ukraine but also on a global scale, hampering the achievement of clean water and sanitation, conservation and sustainable use of water resources and energy, and food security.

A demand-driven climate services for health implementation framework: A case study for climate-sensitive diseases in Caribbean Small Island Developing States

Here we introduce a demand-driven framework designed to implement climate services in the health sector, with a particular focus on the Caribbean region. Climate services are essential for supporting informed decision-making and response strategies in relation to climate-related health risks. Through collaborative efforts, we are co-producing a climate-driven dengue early warning system (EWS) to target vector-borne diseases effectively. While challenges exist in implementing such systems, EWSs provide valuable tools for managing epidemic risks by predicting potential disease outbreaks in advance. The scarcity of operational climate tools in the health sector underscores the need for increased investment and strategic implementation practices. To address these challenges, a demand-driven framework is proposed, emphasizing strategic planning focused on health intervention development, partnership building, data, communication, human resources, capacity building, and sustainable funding. This framework aims to integrate climate services seamlessly into health systems, thereby enhancing public health resilience and facilitating well-informed decision-making to effectively address climate-sensitive diseases.

Integrating user- and data-driven weather forecasts to develop legitimate, credible, and salient information services for smallholders in the Global South

Climate-related risks and variability pose significant challenges to the livelihoods and food security of smallholder farmers practicing rainfed agriculture. Many smallholders have limited access to weather information from climate services, and this information is often not tailored to their specific context and needs. Therefore, they rely on local ecological knowledge. This study utilizes the second generation of climate services, which provide demand-driven forecast information systems through mobile apps. We present three cases from agricultural communities in Guatemala, Bangladesh, and Ghana where we collaborated with farmers to develop local weather forecasts (LF) and combined them with scientific weather forecasts (SF) to create hybrid weather forecasts (HF). The integration of user-driven forecasts (LF) and data-driven forecasts (SF) enhances the legitimacy of the service, thereby increasing farmers’ trust and credibility by providing skilful forecasts. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that the hybrid weather forecast approach facilitates climate-smart, adaptive agricultural decision-making, enhancing the resilience and capacity of smallholder farmers in the Global South to adapt to a changing climate.