Climate-related Policies Research Articles

Climate change policing: Integrating environment-sensitive approaches in Nigerian security operations

Climate change has shifted from being solely a severe environmental challenge to becoming a critical threat to global security. Despite efforts to securitise climate change through speeches, policies, research, media and advocacy by various organisations, the specific roles of security agencies, especially in developing countries dealing with insurgencies, remain undefined. This study emphasises that an effective securitisation process must outline clear roles for security agencies, beginning with the creation of an environment friendly operational plan. In Nigeria, non-state violent groups use natural environments like forests and water bodies as hideouts, leading security forces to turn these areas into battlegrounds without environmental assessments or post-conflict remediation plans. This study investigates how eco-friendly practices are integrated into Nigerian security operations. Through 30 interviews and a critical analysis of climate-related policies, it was found that climate policies are not incorporated into security operations. This is evident in the criminalisation of forests, unsustainable disposal of crude oil and drugs, and correctional processes that ignore climate sensitivity. The study concludes that Nigerian security operations need a paradigm shift towards integrating climate-sensitive approaches, recommending that security agencies adopt practices that consider ecological impacts.

Climate risks, financial performance and lending growth: Evidence from the banking industry

This study examines the impact of climate-related risks, specifically physical and transition risks, on bank performance and lending growth. Using panel data from 147 international banks across 37 countries from 2011 to 2020 and climate data from the Carbon Disclosure Project, our findings show that transition risks positively impact both performance and lending growth, whereas physical risks negatively impact performance and loan growth. Consequently, the inclusion of transition risks in banks' risk frameworks has allowed them to benefit from climate-related policy changes imposed by regulatory bodies, but this does not hold true for physical risks. Although banks recognize the severe impact that physical risks may have on their businesses, they still cannot protect their performance against extreme weather events, particularly because most of these events are characterised by a high degree of uncertainty.

Local preferences for the adoption and modification of climate policy instruments under a radical left government: unveiling the impact and legacy of Barcelona in Common

ABSTRACT This study aims to uncover how shifting towards a radical left ideology affects a city’s climate policy. Using semi-structured interviews with stakeholders and an analysis of local action plans and laws enacted in Barcelona between 1984 and May 2023, we find that the period of local government led by the radical left, embodied by Barcelona in Common, saw a significant increase in the adoption of climate-related policy instruments, with a preference for ‘soft’ over ‘hard’ measures. Likewise, this administration more actively raised the ambition of pre-existing policy instruments, though evidence suggests that this trend is driven by other, non-ideological factors. The results further show that ‘hard’ policy instruments especially were more prone to changes, both in terms of raising or reducing policy ambition. Overall, these findings enhance our understanding of local climate policymaking and how it is affected by partisan politics.

Climate Change Prediction Model using MCDM Technique based on Neutrosophic Soft Functions with Aggregate Operators

The increasing impact of climate change necessitates innovative approaches in modeling and prediction to mitigate its adverse effects. This paper introduces a novel methodology integrating Neutrosophic Soft Functions (NSFs) into climate change prediction frameworks. NSFs, a hybrid of Neutrosophic Set Theory and Soft Set Theory, provide a flexible framework for handling uncertain and imprecise information inherent in climate data. This study explores the application of NSFs in capturing the complex interplay of various climatic variables, including temperature, precipitation, humidity, and atmospheric pressure, thereby enhancing the accuracy and reliability of climate change predictions. By incorporating NSFs into existing predictive models, such as neural networks and fuzzy systems, this research demonstrates significant improvements in forecast precision, particularly in scenarios with limited or noisy data. Additionally, the paper discusses the integration of NSFs with advanced machine learning algorithms for climate pattern recognition and anomaly detection, enabling timely identification of climate change indicators and facilitating proactive measures for adaptation and mitigation. Through empirical validation using real-world climate datasets, this study underscores the efficacy of NSFs in enhancing the predictive capabilities of climate change models, thereby contributing to more informed decision-making in climate-related policies and strategies.

Track to reach net-zero: Progress and pitfalls

Over recent years, many companies and countries have established net-zero emission objectives for 2050 or sooner. Frankly, there will be fraught with challenges and dangers to some extent to attain net-zero. Therefore, we scrutinized the importance of net-zero strategies and plans/roadmap to attain these net-zero goals in this review. We found that overcoming the diverse obstacles including settling on a formal definition of the concept, increasing global financing and infrastructure investments, and ensuring that advancements in green technology occur while keeping their costs low or subsidizing them is very imperative to quickly transition away from carbon-emitting fossil fuels. Other challenges could include getting the net-zero ball moving on difficult-to-decarbonize sectors, choosing the correct carbon offsets, not relying solely on renewable energy credits, and striking the right balance between climate-related policies at various levels. Based on the review analysis, we suggested some solutions to achieving net-zero by 2050, as well as long-run scenarios. In short, all components of sustainable development, socioeconomic sustainability, or the pursuit of broad developing opportunities must be matched with a net-zero emission-based economy, this ensures stability and harmony in the balance between national targets and international benefits.

Structure, agency and local climate governance: how do individual actors exploit local contexts to shape policymaking in smaller cities and towns?

ABSTRACT Previous studies stress that structural conditions influence local climate action, but often neglect the role of agency in policymaking. Drawing on fieldwork in 11 German towns, we show how municipal managers frame climate-related policies in different ways to gain local support for action. Although these framings are influenced by each town’s socio-economic, demographic and political conditions, as well as its vulnerability to climate threats, they nonetheless highlight the importance of individuals in policymaking. We then present a two-dimensional framework to inform future research into structure and agency in local governance, whilst cautioning that undertaking such studies can be difficult.

Assessing the tradeoffs in emissions, air quality and health benefits from excess power generation due to climate-related policies for the transportation sector

As the transportation sector continues to decarbonize through electrification, there is growing interest in quantifying potential tradeoffs in air pollution and health impacts due to potential excess emissions from the power sector. This study investigates air pollution and health impacts of policy-driven changes in the transportation sector and the associated power generation demand in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic United States. Five illustrative scenarios were designed to capture the effects of different policies under the first mandatory market-based program to reduce greenhouse gases in the US power sector (Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative—RGGI) and the Transportation and Climate Initiative (TCI). Considering future power generation with new renewable energy investments to meet demands from decarbonized transportation, the scenarios were framed using: 1. 2030 reference cases for both sectors and a hybrid TCI portfolio, 2. Departure from the reference cases defined by Pennsylvania included or not in RGGI, and 3. Power grid emissions estimated under clean energy standard (CES) policy and hybrid TCI portfolio. While the cross-sectoral policy effect on domain-wide concentrations is modest (max ΔPM2.5 ∼ 0.06 μg m3, ΔNO2 ∼ 0.3 ppbv, ΔO3 ∼ 0.15 ppbv), substantial increases in Ohio and West Virginia were attributed to Pennsylvania joining RGGI. With CES enacted and Pennsylvania in RGGI, significant reductions are seen in average concentrations (max ΔPM2.5 ∼ 1.2 μg m3, ΔNO2 ∼ 1.1 ppbv, ΔO3 ∼ 1.7 ppbv) except for Louisiana and Mississippi with corresponding disbenefits. When focusing exclusively on emissions reductions from transportation, the hybrid TCI portfolio had health benefits of 530 avoided adult deaths, and 46 000 avoided asthma exacerbations. With a ‘business as usual’ power grid, these benefits remain comparable and are mainly driven by NO2, followed by PM2.5 and O3. However, if Pennsylvania joins RGGI, total health benefits and spatial distribution change substantially, with a large portion of adverse health impacts moving from TCI states to Ohio and West Virginia. The overall monetized impact of a CES scenario can substantially exceed the estimated average range of 66–69 Billion US$, depending on the interaction with transportation decarbonization strategies and other drivers of exposure.

Renewable energy as a connecting spot between China and Central and Eastern European countries: status, directions and perspectives

BackgroundConsidering energy- and climate-related policies adopted, the European Union and the People’s Republic of China are expected to be on the same trajectory of reducing pollution, aiming for carbon neutrality in 2050 and 2060, respectively. However, although they share a common goal of more sustainable development, their targets and means often collide. The main objective of the study is to identify the main similarities and differences in approaches to energy and climate policies in the European Union and the People’s Republic of China, with special attention given to the scope, past, present, and future of Chinese investments in renewable energy projects in the countries of the Central and Eastern European region, and to reveal the prevailing factors of the (un)successful renewable energy projects in those countries eventually. The methods used are literature review and qualitative content analysis of the European Union’s and the People’s Republic of China’s energy- and climate-related policies according to the prescribed indicators (from 2005 onwards) and in-depth exploratory desk research of cooperation in renewable energy projects between the People’s Republic of China and 14 Central and Eastern European Countries (from 2014 onwards).ResultsThe study showed that despite the significant alignment of the European Union’s and the People’s Republic of China’s energy- and climate-related policies on a normative level, renewable energy cooperation between the People’s Republic of China and Central and Eastern European countries on a practical level is moderate. This state of play mainly results from political factors, such as rising levels of Sino-scepticism and the overall deterioration of the European Union–People’s Republic of China relations.ConclusionsThe study showed that political rather than economic or legal factors had a great impact on the Chinese presence in the domain of renewable energy in the countries of the Central and Eastern European region. However, the significant alignment of the European Union’s and the People’s Republic of China’s energy- and climate-related policies and dedication to common energy transition targets offer room for improving renewable energy cooperation. Overcoming political and economic divergences imposes a condition for achieving better cooperation in the renewable energy domain.

Thermodynamic and Dynamic Components of Winter Temperature Changes in Western Canada, 1950–2020

Abstract Most of the globe has experienced significant warming trends that have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. However, these rates of warming are also influenced by short-term climate fluctuations driven by atmospheric circulation dynamics, resulting in inconsistent trend magnitudes in both time and space. This research evaluated winter (December–February) temperature trends over 1950–2020 at 91 climate stations across British Columbia (BC), Alberta (AB), and Saskatchewan (SK), Canada, and determined the components attributed to thermodynamic and dynamic (atmospheric circulation) factors. A synoptic climatological approach was used to classify atmospheric circulation patterns in the midtroposphere, relate those patterns to surface temperature, and evaluate changes in frequency. Moderate to high temperature increases over 71 years were found for most of the region, averaging 3.1°C in southern SK to 4.1°C in central-northern AB, and a maximum of 5.8°C in northern BC. Low to moderate increases were found for southern BC, averaging 1.2°C. Changes in atmospheric circulation accounted for 29% and 31% of observed temperature changes in central-northern BC and AB, respectively. Dynamic factors were a moderate driver in southern AB (18%) and central-northern SK (13%), and low in southern SK (5%). Negative dynamic contributions in southern BC (−6%), suggest that atmospheric circulation changes counteracted thermodynamically driven temperature changes. Results were consistent with trend analyses, indicating this method is well suited for trend detection and identification of thermodynamic and dynamic drivers. Results of this research improve our understanding of the magnitude of winter temperature changes critical for informing adaptation and climate-related policy decisions. Significance Statement Winter temperatures are strongly influenced by atmospheric circulation patterns, which move warm or cold air masses over large distances. We wanted to understand how changes in atmospheric circulation affect observed changes in winter temperatures in three provinces in western Canada. This also helps us to understand how much temperature change is due to anthropogenic (e.g., caused by greenhouse gases and land cover changes) and naturally occurring changes to Earth’s energy balance. Our results highlight the importance of understanding variability when selecting a time series for trend analyses or climate baselines for modeling studies. This study also helps to inform climate-related policies, decision-making, and adaptation strategies.

Проблемы и перспективы реализации политики справедливого энергетического перехода в ЮАР

South Africa is the one of leading African economies and the one of the major global greenhouse gas emitters. Actively participating in international climate and energy frameworks, South Africa sets an ambitious goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050. The climate agenda is a sphere of crucial importance for South Africa due to explicit systemic vulnerabilities of the national economy in the face of expected changes. This article analyzes problems and prospects in achieving South Africa’s climate policy goals, as well as the availability of resources necessary to achieve these goals. The analysis finds that South Africa does not possess the resources to achieve its climate goals. South Africa remains dependent on polluting fossil fuels, especially coal, due to enormous available natural deposits. Climate financing covers only a portion of necessary financial placing. In the long run, established international agreements may aggravate the country’s international debt problem. South Africa’s leaders recognize the necessity of climate-related policy measures, but such measures cannot be characterized as the main drivers of the country's development.

A systems science leverage point analysis of climate change advocacy.

Failure of governments across the world to address climate change has fuelled social movements focused on climate-related policy and action. Research analysing these movements has focused mainly on the types of strategies employed including blockades and occupations, marches and petitions, divestment, boycotts and litigation as well as how groups are framing climate change as a problem. What has been largely missed are the ways these groups are framing the change they want to see, that is their demands to governments. Not all demands and actions have the same potential to create the changes needed to mitigate climate change. Used in public health and health promotion, the systems science Intervention Level Framework (ILF) is a tool that can help analyse to what extent different demands have the leverage to create change in a system. We use the ILF to analyse 131 demands from 35 different climate-related advocacy groups in Australia. Results show demands are more focused on lower system leverage points, such as stopping particular projects, rather than on more impactful leverage points, such as the governance structures that determine climate-related policy and decision-making mechanisms. Further, the results highlight the lack of attention on public health related topics of transport and food systems. This paper shows how a systems science framework used in health promotion, the ILF, could enable climate advocacy groups to more effectively target demands to achieve more impactful outcomes from governments, corporations and the public.

Navigating the interconnected risks in currency valuation: unveiling the role of climate policy uncertainty.

Given the significance of fostering sustainable climate conditions for long-term economic stability and financial resilience, this study probes the connection between climate-related policy ambiguity and its implications for currency valuation. In doing so, the current study investigates the interconnected effects of climate policy on economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk with the currency valuation in ASEAN countries. Employing wavelet coherence analysis and partial wavelet coherence analysis, the paper highlights the complex relationships among these factors and their implications for exchange rate fluctuations. Using data from 2000 to 2022, the findings reveal that climate policy uncertainty is an important driver of exchange rate movements, amplifying the impact of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk. Furthermore, the study identifies a vicious cycle between climate policy uncertainty and exchange rates, potentially impacting the region's macroeconomic stability and long-term economic growth. The study presents several policy recommendations to address economic and climate policy uncertainties comprehensively based on the findings. These recommendations include establishing national frameworks for climate risk management, enhancing policy credibility and macroeconomic stability, and promoting regional integration to mitigate the influence of geopolitical risk on exchange rates.

Making a Case for Centring Energy Poverty in Social Policy in Light of the Climate Emergency: A Global Integrative Review

The recent polycrises of COVID-19, economic recession, and energy price increases have reinforced the critical importance of energy services – such as heating, information and communications technology, and refrigeration – to everyday societal functioning. Compromising access to these energy services, or energy poverty, limits social and economic development affecting education, health, and social participation. Energy poverty is impacted by climate change and climate-related policies – however, this nexus has been marginalised within social policy. We critically review literature at the intersection of climate change and energy poverty identifying policy approaches, tensions, and solutions of relevance for social policy. While tensions exist between efforts to mitigate climate change and energy poverty, climate-friendly mitigation of energy poverty requires better integration of social perspectives to disrupt current technical biases, recognising the characteristics and needs of individuals in energy poverty, and holistic governance approaches, especially involving the health and housing sectors.

The Human Right to Public Participation in Environmental Decision-making: Some Legal Reflections

Recent years have seen an increase in climate-related protests and demonstrations. There is a clear disparity between the opinions of the public and those of the state in relation to climate change and how it should be tackled. At the heart of the problem is poor communication between citizens and state actors, which has resulted in a lack of support from the public for the state’s climate policy formulation and implementation processes. To increase support for new and existing climate-related policies and initiatives, and to ensure that the fundamental human right to public participation is protected, the state must make a concerted effort to engage with the public during the policy formulation, introduction, application and monitoring phases. This would ensure that state actors are better informed about the concerns of the public and that, when promoting decision-making in climate-related policies, citizens are given opportunities to exercise their right to public participation. It would also promote transparency and accountability in the decision-making process and create a more engaged citizenry and inclusive society. The processes driving greater public participation are not new; they have been encouraged and supported by United Nations (UN) Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) and have been incorporated into environmental law both at the national level and at an international level through the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, it may be necessary to rethink and reframe existing public participatory processes to encourage stronger cooperation between all stakeholders in environmental decision-making processes including climate change.

SOME VIEWS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKETING DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS

ABSTRACT Currently, two-thirds of greenhouse gas emissions come from the energy sector, and many energy plans still lag behind the required emission reductions. The increasing impact of global warming makes it important to take urgent measures. Renewable are predicted to account for at least two-thirds of the total final energy supply by 2050. Key strategies concern energy savings for those who demand, efficiency improvements in power generation, and the substitution of a variety of new and renewable energy sources for fossil fuels. Climate change, which is a global problem, requires a global solution. The most important effects of climate change are heavy downpours, strong storms, heat waves, melting ice-field, droughts, reduced food security, pests and diseases. Climate changes can significantly affect the availability, reliability and affordability of energy supply systems. An effective strategy will require the commitment and action of all developing and developed countries. It is known that some climate-related policies need additional revisions in order to achieve the desired levels in the energy sector. The fundamentals of marketing can be applied to renewable energy marketing, as has been extensively stated in the literature. Climate protection aspects partially convert renewable energy into the public good.

Just “blah blah blah”? Stock market expectations and reactions to COP26

Applying an event study methodology, this research examines whether and how the stock market incorporated the key outcomes and statements from the COP26 summit into share prices. Our study is based on a sample of 7587 firms from four economic areas (EU, USA, China and India) belonging to the most carbon-intensive sectors. The empirical evidence shows that stock market reaction depends on how country authorities respond to commitments to accelerate and scale the transition to a greener economy, confirming that the stock market reacts negatively to stringent climate policies and positively to less stringent regulations. At the same time, in sectors emitting the most pollution, investors tend to reward companies with the best/worst environmental performance according to the type of climate policies adopted, more or less strict. Since finance is expected to play a critical role in the transition to a low-carbon economy, our results have relevant policy implications by highlighting that only clearly-defined, long-term and credible climate-related policies can lead equity investors to adequately consider environmental issues.

China's Trade of Agricultural Products Drives Substantial Greenhouse Gas Emissions.

China's trade of agricultural products has expanded rapidly over the past two decades, resulting in considerable shifts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions worldwide. This study aims to explore the evolution of GHG emissions embodied in China's trade of agricultural products from 1995 to 2015. The GHG emissions embodied in China's exports of agricultural products experienced three stages of fluctuation, showing a significant upward trend (1995-2003), a fluctuating trend (2004-2007), and a fall back to the previous level (2008-2015). The embodied GHG emissions in China's imports were witnessed at times of sustained growth, rising from 10.5 Mt CO2-eq in 1995 to 107.7 Mt CO2-eq in 2015. The net import of embodied GHG emissions has grown at an average annual rate of 25.1% since 2008. In terms of regional contribution, the distribution of China's trading partners tended to be diversified. The increasing net imports of oil crops to China resulted in a significant GHG emissions shift from China to the US and Brazil. Asian countries contributed to 76.9% of the total GHG emissions embodied in China's agricultural exports. The prominent impacts of China's trade of agricultural products on global GHG emissions provide important implications for climate-related policy choices.

The use of scenarios in climate policy planning: an assessment of actors’ experiences and lessons learned in Finland

ABSTRACT Scenarios are often used to depict the possible outcomes of alternative future developments as part of the evaluation of climate and energy policy measures. In Finland, scenarios have become a standard practice in climate-related policy planning. However, scenario planning often results in a single cohesive narrative, which lacks transparency in why certain developments and solutions are included and others left out. This article focuses on how scenarios created during the planning of Finland’s Medium-term Plan for Climate Change Policy (KAISU) were built, and how the actors involved assessed the characteristics and quality of these scenarios. We interviewed a total of 18 participants from research, administration, and policymaking domains involved in the creation of the plan and the scenarios it contains. Semi-structured interviews provided an insight into the creation and use of scenarios as part of policy formulation, as well as points of further improvement for the process. The KAISU plan was constructed as a cross-sectoral collaborative effort between policymakers, public officials, and researchers. Despite the variety of actors involved in the process, the resulting scenarios were perceived as well-executed by the participants. However, national scenario foresight could be improved in three dimensions: 1) the process where actors collaborate to build scenarios, 2) the scenario methodology, where solutions and developments are included or excluded, and 3) use of the scenarios after their construction. Key policy insights The scenario approach used in Finland corresponds with needs at the political level. However, the approach could be improved without compromising this goal. The underlying scenario assumptions and the compatibility of the models used lack transparency. Many actors involved in the scenario process have a limited understanding of the models used and measures proposed outside their respective sector. Construction of more than one policy scenario would allow a larger variety of possible future trajectories to be evaluated in national policymaking. In this case, the aim and role of the scenario process would have to be adjusted and clarified accordingly. Communication regarding the role and applicability of foresight methods should be improved for citizens and politicians alike.

Appraisal of climate change mitigation and adaptation regulatory frameworks in Ethiopia and their congruency with the UN climate change convention

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to critically investigate the Ethiopia’s climate change adaptation and mitigation regulatory frameworks and their congruency with the guiding principles under the United Nations (UN) Climate Convention, to show the alignment of the regulatory frameworks with the UN Climate Change rules. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall distribution, recurrent droughts and floods require robust climate change mitigation and adaptation policies and effective implementation in the country.Design/methodology/approachThrough the doctrinal legal research method, the author has used a detailed analysis of primary sources, both national and international legislative enactments. Besides, the research has benefitted from secondary sources like research reports, online publications, scientific journals, international reports, books and journal articles.FindingsThe findings reveal that in Ethiopia, there is no national climate change-specific policy and legislation. Although there are scattered sectoral climate-related policies and strategies, they are not consistent with the principles of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).Originality/valueThis study argues that having comprehensive specific climate change policy and legislative frameworks consistent with UNFCCC guiding principles could help to mitigate and adapt to the adverse effects of climate change in the country.

Right-wing populism and climate policies: Explaining opposition to road tolls in Norway

In 2019, the road toll uproar in Norway contributed to a governmental crisis and road tolls became the most debated issue in the media. Using survey data of around 2,000 respondents, we explore what characterizes opponents of road tolls. Key findings are that attitudes relating to climate change, the environment, and right-wing populism are strongly related to opposition to road tolls. We propose that these attitudes and opposition to toll roads are components of an anti-elitist identity struggle linked to recent literature suggesting that right-wing populists display particular resistance to climate-related policies. Lack of alternative transport modes is not a strong predictor, while owning a car does predict increased opposition. A policy-relevant question for future research is how to facilitate more inclusive climate policies debates, bringing in those who feel left out, for the instruments to be both efficient and legitimate.