Climate Prediction Center Research Articles

Strong Linkage Between Observed Daily Precipitation Extremes and Anthropogenic Emissions Across the Contiguous United States

AbstractThe results of probabilistic event attribution studies depend on the choice of the extreme value statistics used in the analysis, particularly with the arbitrariness in the selection of appropriate thresholds to define extremes. We bypass this issue by using the Extended Generalized Pareto Distribution (ExtGPD), which jointly models low precipitation with a generalized Pareto distribution and extremes with a different Pareto tail, to conduct daily precipitation attribution across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We apply the ExtGPD to 12 general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and compare counterfactual scenarios with and without anthropogenic emissions. Observed precipitation by the Climate Prediction Center is used for evaluating the GCMs. We find that greenhouse gases rather than natural variability can explain the observed magnitude of extreme daily precipitation, especially in the temperate regions. Our results highlight an unambiguous linkage of anthropogenic emissions to daily precipitation extremes across CONUS.

Characterizing the uncertainty of CMORPH products for estimating orographic precipitation over Northern California

Satellite-based precipitation products (SPPs), such as the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Morphing technique (CMORPH), have greatly extended our ability to monitor global precipitation. However, their performance over complex terrain remains highly uncertain. To improve accuracy, CPC has recently upgraded its operational SPP to the second generation CMORPH–CMORPH2. In addition to such efforts, the reliability of SPPs can be further enhanced by developing robust uncertainty estimates. This study employs a censored, shifted gamma distribution (CSGD)-based error modeling framework to develop error models for both CMORPH2 and its predecessor, CMORPH1, at a 6-hourly scale over Northern California—a typical complex terrain region that challenges most SPPs. Using the Stage IV reference precipitation, the relative improvements of CMORPH2 over CMORPH1 are quantified by comparing their CSGD-derived error statistics. The comparison shows that CMORPH2 outperforms CMORPH1 by reducing the overall bias and detection errors, and by better capturing the orographic gradients of precipitation over the Coast Ranges and Sierra Nevada. Validation results show that the trained error models can appropriately represent the bias and random errors; however, the models for both CMORPH2 and CMORPH1 show reduced skills in the high-altitude Sierra Nevada. With high-resolution regional climate simulations, the uncertainty estimates are further improved by incorporating them as covariates. The simulated precipitation shows substantial improvement of the uncertainty estimates over most areas, including the challenging high-altitude Sierra Nevada. Following precipitation, the simulated integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and convective available potential energy (CAPE) also offer modest improvements, mainly along the coast. Independent verification further demonstrates the robustness of the uncertainty estimates during heavy precipitation events. As NOAA is currently reprocessing CMORPH2 to produce an updated global precipitation record from 1991 onward, this error modeling framework holds potential for broader applications in quantifying the uncertainty of CMORPH2 for estimating orographic precipitation over extended periods and locations.

Assessments of various precipitation product performances and disaster monitoring utilities over the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau, often referred to as Asia’s water tower, is a focal point for studying spatiotemporal changes in water resources amidst global warming. Precipitation is a crucial water resource for the Tibetan Plateau. Precipitation information holds significant importance in supporting research on the Tibetan Plateau. In this study, we estimate the performance and applicability of Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG), Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation products for estimating precipitation and different disaster scenarios (including extreme precipitation, drought, and snow) across the Tibetan Plateau. Extreme precipitation and drought indexes are employed to describe extreme precipitation and drought conditions. We evaluated the performance of various precipitation products using daily precipitation time series from 2000 to 2014. Statistical metrics were used to estimate and compare the performances of different precipitation products. The results indicate that (1) Both CMAP and IMERG showed higher fitting degrees with gauge precipitation observations in daily precipitation. Probability of detection, False Alarm Ratio, and Critical Success Index values of CMAP and IMERG were approximately 0.42 to 0.72, 0.38 to 0.56, and 0.30 to 0.42, respectively. Different precipitation products presented higher daily average precipitation amount and frequency in southeastern Tibetan Plateau. (2) CMAP and GPCP precipitation products showed relatively great and poor performance, respectively, in predicting daily and monthly precipitation on the plateau. False alarms might have a notable impact on the accuracy of precipitation products. (3) Extreme precipitation amount could be better predicted by precipitation products. Extreme precipitation day could be badly predicted by precipitation products. Different precipitation products showed that the bias of drought estimation increased as the time scale increased. (4) GLDAS series products might have relatively better performance in simulating (main range of RMSE: 2.0–4.5) snowfall than rainfall and sleet in plateau. G-Noah demonstrated slightly better performance in simulating snowfall (main range of RMSE: 1.0–2.1) than rainfall (main range of RMSE: 2.0–3.8) and sleet (main range of RMSE: 1.5–3.8). This study’s findings contribute to understanding the performance variations among different precipitation products and identifying potential factors contributing to biases within these products. Additionally, the study sheds light on disaster characteristics and warning systems specific to the Tibetan Plateau.

Quantile mapping technique for enhancing satellite-derived precipitation data in hydrological modelling: a case study of the Lam River Basin, Vietnam

ABSTRACT Accurate precipitation is crucial for hydrological modelling in sparse gauge regions like the Lam River Basin (LRB) in Vietnam. Gridded precipitation data from satellite and numerical models offer significant advantages in such areas. However, satellite precipitation estimates (SPEs) are subject to uncertainties, especially in high variable of topography and precipitation. This study focuses on enhancing the accuracy of Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG), Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH) using the Quantile Mapping (QM) technique, aligning the cumulative distribution functions of the observed precipitation data with those of the SPEs, and assessing the impact on hydrological predictions. The study highlights that the post-correction IMERG precipitation using QM performs better than other data sets, enhancing the hydrological model's performance for the LRB at different temporal scales. Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency values increased from 0.60 to 0.77, surpassing the original IMERG's 0.52 to 0.74, and correlation coefficients improved from 0.79 to 0.89 (compared with the previous 0.75–0.86) for hydrological modelling. Additionally, Percent Bias (PBIAS) decreased from approximately −1.66 to −2.21% (contrasting with the initial −20.22 and 4.6%) with corrected SPEs. These findings have implications for water resource management and disaster risk reduction initiatives in Vietnam and other countries.

Global-scale evaluation of precipitation datasets for hydrological modelling

Abstract. Precipitation is the most important driver of the hydrological cycle, but it is challenging to estimate it over large scales from satellites and models. Here, we assessed the performance of six global and quasi-global high-resolution precipitation datasets (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations version 2.0 (CHIRPS), Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation version 2.80 (MSWEP), TerraClimate (TERRA), Climate Prediction Centre Unified version 1.0 (CPCU), and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CCS-CDR, hereafter PERCCDR) for hydrological modelling globally and quasi-globally. We forced the WBMsed global hydrological model with the precipitation datasets to simulate river discharge from 1983 to 2019 and evaluated the predicted discharge against 1825 hydrological stations worldwide, using a range of statistical methods. The results show large differences in the accuracy of discharge predictions when using different precipitation input datasets. Based on evaluation at annual, monthly, and daily timescales, MSWEP followed by ERA5 demonstrated a higher correlation (CC) and Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) than other datasets for more than 50 % of the stations, whilst ERA5 was the second-highest-performing dataset, and it showed the highest error and bias for about 20 % of the stations. PERCCDR is the least-well-performing dataset, with a bias of up to 99 % and a normalised root mean square error of up to 247 %. PERCCDR only show a higher KGE and CC than the other products for less than 10 % of the stations. Even though MSWEP provided the highest performance overall, our analysis reveals high spatial variability, meaning that it is important to consider other datasets in areas where MSWEP showed a lower performance. The results of this study provide guidance on the selection of precipitation datasets for modelling river discharge for a basin, region, or climatic zone as there is no single best precipitation dataset globally. Finally, the large discrepancy in the performance of the datasets in different parts of the world highlights the need to improve global precipitation data products.

Meteorological Drivers of North American Monsoon Extreme Precipitation Events

AbstractIn this paper the meteorological drivers of North American Monsoon (NAM) extreme precipitation events (EPEs) are identified and analyzed. First, the NAM area and its subregions are distinguished using self‐organizing maps applied to the Climate Prediction Center global precipitation data set. This reveals distinct subregions, shaped by the inhomogeneous geographic features of the NAM area, with distinct extreme precipitation character and drivers. Next, defining EPEs as days when subregion‐mean precipitation exceeds the 95th percentile of rainy days, five synoptic features and one mesoscale feature are investigated as potential drivers of EPEs. Essentially all EPEs can be associated with at least one selected driver, with only one event remaining unclassified. This analysis shows the dominant role of Gulf of California moisture surges, mesoscale convective systems and frontal systems in generating NAM extreme precipitation. Finally, a frequency and probability analysis is conducted to contrast precipitation distributions conditioned on the associated meteorological drivers. The findings demonstrate that the co‐occurrence of multiple features does not necessarily enhance the EPE probability.

How Do Futures Contracts on Agricultural Commodities Respond to El Nino Weather Events?

This study examines how futures contracts on wheat, soybeans, corn and sugarcane respond to El Nino weather events over the period March 2010 to April 2024. We use the monthly ENSO forecast data from the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to benchmark the start of an El Nino forecast, which we define as the first reporting month in which a current or forecasted El Nino probability exceeds 50%. We examine two periods around each event: the six months leading up to the El Nino forecast, and the six months following the event date. We find that El Nino weather events have significant effects on commodity futures prices. Wheat, soybean and corn futures prices (expressed in dollars) generally decline after an El Nino forecast, consistent with improved harvests due to an increase in rain. We also find that El Nino events are associated with increased volatility in commodity futures markets. Our study can inform hedgers and speculators who participate in the agricultural derivatives markets, as well as policymakers who may be interested in initiating or adjusting any subsidies granted to farmers or food consumers, as compensation for price pressures.

The Effectiveness of IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) on Environmental Security in the Greater Horn of Africa

The Effectiveness of IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) on Environmental Security in the Greater Horn of Africa

Machine learning‐based streamflow forecasting using CMIP6 scenarios: Assessing performance and improving hydrological projections and climate change

AbstractWater is essential for humans as well as for all living organisms to sustain their lives. Therefore, any climate‐driven change in available resources has significant impacts on the environment and life. Global climate models (GCMs) are one of the most practical methods to evaluate climate change. Based on this, this research evaluated the capability of GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) to reproduce the historical flow of climate prediction centre data for the Konya Closed basin and to project the climate of the basin using the selected GCMs. Global climate models based on the CMIP6 under the scenario of common socioeconomic pathways (SSP245 and SSP 585) were used to analyse the climate change effect on streamflow of the study area by Bias Correction of GCM Models using Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM), Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), AdaBoost, Gradient Boosting, Regression Tree, and Random Forest methods. The coefficient of determination (R2), mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) were used to assess the performance of the methods. Findings show that the Random Forest Model consistently outperformed other models in both the testing and training phases. A significant downward in the volume of water flowing through the region's rivers and streams in the next decades. It is critical to enhance climate‐resilient water infrastructure financing, establish an early warning system for drought, introduce best management practices, implement integrated water resource management, public awareness, and support water research to alleviate the negative consequences of drought and increase resilience against the effects of climate change on Turkey's water resources.

Urban flash floods modeling in Mzuzu City, Malawi based on Sentinel and MODIS data

Floods are major hazard in Mzuzu City, Malawi. This study applied geospatial and hydrological modeling techniques to map flood incidences and hazard in the city. Multi-sensor [Sentinel 1, Sentinel 2, and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)] Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets were used to determine the spatio-temporal variation of flood inundation. Ground control points collected using a participatory GIS mapping approach were used to validate the identified flood hazard areas. A Binary Logistic Regression (BLR) model was used to determine and predict the spatial variation of flood hazard as a function of selected environmental factors. The Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) was used to quantify the peak flow and runoff contribution needed for flood in the city. The runoff and peak flow from the HEC-HMS model were subjected to extreme value frequency analysis using the Gumbel Distribution approach before input into the Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (RAS) (HEC-RAS). The HEC-RAS model was then applied to map flood inundated areas producing flood extents maps for 100, 50, 20, and 10-year return periods, with rain-gauge and Climate Prediction Center MORPHed precipitation (CMORPH) satellite-based rainfall inputs. Results revealed that selected MODIS and Sentinel datasets were effective in delineating the spatial distribution of flood events. Distance from the river network and urban drainage are the most significant factors (p < 0.05) influencing flooding. Consequently, a relatively higher flood hazard probability and/susceptibility was noted in the south-eastern and western-most regions of the study area. The HEC-HMS model calibration (validation) showed satisfactory performance metrics of 0.7 (0.6) and similarly, the HEC-RAS model significantly performed satisfactorily as well (p < 0.05). We conclude that bias corrected satellite rainfall estimates and hydrological modeling tools can be used for flood inundation simulation especially in areas with scarce or poorly designed rain gauges such as Mzuzu City as well as those affected by climate change. These findings have important implications in informing and/updating designs of flood early warning systems and impacts mitigation plans and strategies in developing cities such as Mzuzu.

Assessment of precipitation and near-surface temperature simulation by CMIP6 models in South America

This study evaluated the performance of 50 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in simulating the statistical features of precipitation and air temperature in five subdomains of South America during the historical period (1995–2014). Monthly precipitation and temperature simulations were validated with data from the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation, the Global Precipitation Climatology Project, and the ERA5 reanalysis. The models’ performance was evaluated using a ranking analysis with statistical metrics such as mean, standard deviation, Pearson’s spatial correlation, annual cycle amplitude, and linear trend. The analyses considered the representation of precipitation and air temperature separately for each subdomain, the representation for all five regions together, and the joint representation of precipitation and air temperature for all five subdomains. In the Brazilian Amazon, the best-performing models were EC-Earth3-Veg, INM-CM4-8, and INMCM5-0 (precipitation), and IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM2-0, and IITM-ESM (temperature). In the La Plata Basin, KACE-1-0-G, ACCESS-CM2, and IPSL-CM6A-LR (precipitation), and GFDL-ESM4, TaiESM1, and EC-Earth3-Veg (temperature) yielded the best simulations. In Northeast Brazil, SAM0-UNICON, CESM2, and MCM-UA-1-0 (precipitation), BCC-CSM2-MR, KACE-1-0-G, and CESM2 (temperature) showed the best results. In Argentine Patagonia, the GCMs ACCESS-CM2, ACCESS-ESM1-5 and EC-Earth3-Veg-LR (precipitation), and CAMS-CSM1-0, CMCC-CM2-HR4, and GFDL-ESM4 (temperature) outperformed. Finally, for Southeast Brazil, the models ACCESS-CM2, ACCESS-ESM1-5, and EC-Earth3-Veg-LR (precipitation), and CAMS-CSM1-0, CMCC-CM2-HR4, and GFDL-ESM4 (temperature) yielded the best simulations. The joint evaluation of the regions and variables indicated that the best models are CESM2, TaiESM1, CMCC-CM2-HR4, FIO-ESM-2-0, and MRI-ESM2-0.

A New GFSv15 With FV3 Dynamical Core Based Climate Model Large Ensemble and Its Application to Understanding Climate Variability, and Predictability

AbstractNOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has generated a 100‐member ensemble of atmospheric model simulations from 1979 to present using the Global Forecast System version 15 (GFSv15) with FV3 dynamical core. The intent of this study is to document a development in an infrastructure capability with a focus to demonstrate the quality of these new simulations is on par with the previous GFSv2 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations. These simulations are part of CPC's efforts to attribute observed seasonal climate variability to sea surface temperature (SST) forcings and get updated once a month by available observed SST. The performance of these simulations in replicating observed climate variability and trends, together with an assessment of climate predictability and the attribution of some climate events is documented. A particular focus of the analysis is on the US climate trend, Northern Hemisphere winter height variability, US climate response to three strong El Niño events, the analysis of signal to noise ratio, the anomaly correlation for seasonal climate anomalies, and the South Asian flooding of 2022 summer, and thereby samples wide aspects that are important for attributing climate variability. Results indicate that the new model can realistically reproduce observed climate variability, trends, and extreme events, better capturing the US climate response to extreme El Niño events and the 2022 summer South Asian record‐breaking flooding than GFSv2. The new model also shows an improvement in the wintertime simulation fidelity of US surface climate, mainly confined in the Northern and Southeastern US for precipitation and in the east for temperature.

Homogenized gridded dataset for drought and hydrometeorological modeling for the continental United States

We present a novel data set for drought in the continental US (CONUS) built to enable computationally efficient spatio-temporal statistical and probabilistic models of drought. We converted drought data obtained from the widely-used US Drought Monitor (USDM) from its native geo-referenced polygon format to a 0.5 degree regular grid. We merged known environmental drivers of drought, including those obtained from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2), US Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow data, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) teleconnections data. The resulting data set permits statistical and probabilistic modeling of drought with explicit spatial and/or temporal dependence. Such models could be used to forecast drought at short-range, seasonal to sub-seasonal, and inter-annual timescales with uncertainty, extending the reach and value of the current US Drought Outlook from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. This novel data product provides the first common gridded dataset that includes critical variables used to inform hydrological and meteorological drought.

Comparative Analysis of Characteristics and Physical Mechanisms for Typical Summer Extreme Precipitation in Pakistan

Abstract The 2022 floods in Pakistan resulted in severe losses and garnered global attention. This study aims to enhance the understanding of extreme precipitation (EP) events in Pakistan by examining the characteristics and mechanisms behind the persistent EP during summer, utilizing daily precipitation data from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). Results showed that the monsoon precipitation in 2010, 2020 and 2022 are the highest three years on record. Notably, these peak events in 2010 (concentrating in the north) and 2022 (concentrating in the south) spanned from July through August. Conversely, the extreme precipitation in August 2020 was concentrated in northern Pakistan. For the circulation patterns, the intensification of the South Asian High and the western Pacific subtropical high with a strong Indian monsoon is a unifying feature, but the Iranian high and monsoon low-pressure system on the south of Pakistan was different. Additionally, the EP in July 2010 and August 2022 were also influenced by the teleconnection associated with European Blocking. La Niña events and the negative-phase Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also played a role in affecting summer EP, with the strongest La Niña occurring in 2010 and a notable triple-dip La Niña coinciding with a significant negative IOD phase in 2022. La Niña contributed to the formation of an anomalously strong anticyclone over the northwest Pacific and easterly winds along the southern Himalayas, impacting moisture transport to Pakistan. Conversely, the negative IOD phase amplified EP in Pakistan by enhancing the northward movement of convective systems and westerly winds over the Indian Ocean. Furthermore, reduced snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau in the springs of 2010 and 2022 likely induced a stronger thermal dynamical effect, acting as a heat source in summer and increasing precipitation in Pakistan.

Modulation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation Center Stagnation on Typhoon Genesis over the Western North Pacific

Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) modulates the generation of typhoons (TYs) in the western North Pacific (WNP). Using IBTrACS v04 tropical cyclone best path data, ERA5 reanalysis data, and the MJO index from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), this paper defines an index to describe the persistent anomalies of the MJO and to examine the statistical characteristics of TYs over 44 years (1978–2021), focusing on the analysis of major differences in environmental conditions after the removal of the ENSO signal over the WNP. The results indicate that the persistent anomalous state of the MJO influences the change in large-scale environmental factors, which, in turn, affects the generation of TYs, as follows: (1) For the I high-value years, the center of the MJO stagnates in the Indian Ocean–South China Sea (SCS), the monsoon trough retreats westward, the warm pool becomes warmer, and the Walker circulation is enhanced. There is stronger upper-level divergence and low-level convergence, larger low-level relative vorticity, higher mid-level relative humidity, and smaller vertical wind shear in the SCS and the seas near the Philippines. Consequently, these conditions foster a conducive environment for TY genesis in the SCS and the seas near the Philippines. (2) For the I low-value years, the center of the MJO stagnates in the WNP–North America region, the monsoon trough extends eastward, the warm pool becomes colder, and the Walker circulation is weakened. Consequently, these conditions are more likely to facilitate TY genesis in the central–eastern WNP. The results show that persistent anomalies in MJO active centers can effectively improve the predictive ability of TY frequency.

A D-vine copula-based quantile regression towards merging satellite precipitation products over rugged topography: a case study in the upper Tekeze–Atbara Basin

Abstract. Precipitation is a vital key element in various studies of hydrology, flood prediction, drought monitoring, and water resource management. The main challenge in conducting studies over remote regions with rugged topography is that weather stations are usually scarce and unevenly distributed. However, open-source satellite-based precipitation products (SPPs) with a suitable resolution provide alternative options in these data-scarce regions, which are typically associated with high uncertainty. To reduce the uncertainty of individual satellite products, we have proposed a D-vine copula-based quantile regression (DVQR) model to merge multiple SPPs with rain gauges (RGs). The DVQR model was employed during the 2001–2017 summer monsoon seasons and compared with two other quantile regression methods based on the multivariate linear (MLQR) and the Bayesian model averaging (BMAQ) techniques, respectively, and with two traditional merging methods – the simple modeling average (SMA) and the one-outlier-removed average (OORA) – using descriptive and categorical statistics. Four SPPs have been considered in this study, namely, Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite (TAMSAT v3.1), the Climate Prediction Center MORPHing Product Climate Data Record (CMORPH-CDR), Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG v06), and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN-CDR). The bilinear (BIL) interpolation technique was applied to downscale SPPs from a coarse to a fine spatial resolution (1 km). The rugged-topography region of the upper Tekeze–Atbara Basin (UTAB) in Ethiopia was selected as the study area. The results indicate that the precipitation data estimates with the DVQR, MLQR, and BMAQ models and with traditional merging methods outperform the downscaled SPPs. Monthly evaluations reveal that all products perform better in July and September than in June and August due to precipitation variability. The DVQR, MLQR, and BMAQ models exhibit higher accuracy than the traditional merging methods over the UTAB. The DVQR model substantially improved all of the statistical metrics (CC = 0.80, NSE = 0.615, KGE = 0.785, MAE = 1.97 mm d−1, RMSE = 2.86 mm d−1, and PBIAS = 0.96 %) considered compared with the BMAQ and MLQR models. However, the DVQR model did not outperform the BMAQ and MLQR models with respect to the probability of detection (POD) and false-alarm ratio (FAR), although it had the best frequency bias index (FBI) and critical success index (CSI) among all of the employed models. Overall, the newly proposed merging approach improves the quality of SPPs and demonstrates the value of the proposed DVQR model in merging multiple SPPs over regions with rugged topography such as the UTAB.

An Evaluation of NOAA Modeled and In Situ Soil Moisture Values and Variability across the Continental United States

Abstract Estimates of soil moisture from two National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) models are compared to in situ observations. The estimates are from a high-resolution atmospheric model with a land surface model [High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model] and a hydrologic model from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC). Both models produce wetter soils in dry regions and drier soils in wet regions, as compared to the in situ observations. These soil moisture differences occur at most soil depths but are larger at the deeper depths below the surface (100 cm). Comparisons of soil moisture variability are also assessed as a function of soil moisture regime. Both models have lower standard deviations as compared to the in situ observations for all soil moisture regimes. The HRRR model’s soil moisture is better correlated with in situ observations for drier soils as compared to wetter soils—a trend that was not present in the CPC model comparisons. In terms of seasonality, soil moisture comparisons vary depending on the metric, time of year, and soil moisture regime. Therefore, consideration of both the seasonality and soil moisture regime is needed to accurately determine model biases. These NOAA soil moisture estimates are used for a variety of forecasting and societal applications, and understanding their differences provides important context for their applications and can lead to model improvements. Significance Statement Soil moisture is an essential variable coupling the land surface to the atmosphere. Accurate estimates of soil moisture are important for forecasting near-surface temperature and moisture, predicting where clouds will form, and assessing drought and fire risks. There are multiple estimates of soil moisture available, and in this study, we compare soil moisture estimates from two different National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) models to in situ observations. These comparisons include both soil moisture amount and variability and are conducted at several soil depths, in different soil moisture regimes, and for different seasons and years. This comprehensive assessment allows for an accurate assessment of biases within these models that would be missed when conducting analyses more broadly.

Temporal-Spatial Variations Analysis of Surface Temperature in Kalimantan Region for The Period of 2010 - 2020

Surface temperature information is important to study because it affects other climate parameters and has an impact on various sectors. This study aims to analyze the temporal and spatial variations of maximum surface temperature on Kalimantan Region during the period 2010 to 2020. The data used is Surface Maximum Temperature (SMT) in the form of a 0.5o x 0.5o grid from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) NOAA PCL. The results of the temporal analysis showed that the highest monthly SMT values occurred in May (32.00o C) and September (31.75o C). While the lowest monthly SMT values were found in January (30.88o C) and July (31.40o C). The results of the annual SMT trend analysis show that the surface temperature in the Kalimantan Region has increased at an average rate of 0.03°C per year. This value is higher than the increase in global surface temperature (~0.02°C per year). Based on the results of spatial analysis, it was known that the distribution of SMT on Kalimantan Region tends to be stable in the range of 25o C to 35o C throughout the year. Spatial analysis of SMT in 2011 showed that low values (25o - 31o C) dominated South Kalimantan Province , while high values (33°C - 35°C) dominated West Kalimantan Province. The results of the 2019 SMT spatial analysis revealed a similar pattern to 2011. However, there was a significant increase in temperature compared to 2011, especially in the high SMT values observed in West Kalimantan and East Kalimantan Provinces.

Seasonal forecasts of the world’s coastal waterline: what to expect from the coming El Niño?

The central-eastern tropical Pacific is currently significantly warmer than normal, and the likelihood of a strong El Niño developing by early 2024 is 75–85%, according to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center. Disruptions in ecosystem services and increased vulnerability, in particular in the coastal zones, are expected in many parts of the world. In this comment, we review the latest seasonal forecasts and showcase the potential for predicting the world’s coastlines based on data-driven modeling.

Selecting the optimal gridded climate dataset for Nigeria using advanced time series similarity algorithms.

Choosing a suitable gridded climate dataset is a significant challenge in hydro-climatic research, particularly in areas lacking long-term, reliable, and dense records. This study used the most common method (Perkins skill score (PSS)) with two advanced time series similarity algorithms, short time series distance (STS), and cross-correlation distance (CCD), for the first time to evaluate, compare, and rank five gridded climate datasets, namely, Climate Research Unit (CRU), TERRA Climate (TERRA), Climate Prediction Center (CPC), European Reanalysis V.5 (ERA5), and Climatologies at high resolution for Earth's land surface areas (CHELSA), according to their ability to replicate the in situ rainfall and temperature data in Nigeria. The performance of the methods was evaluated by comparing the ranking obtained using compromise programming (CP) based on four statistical criteria in replicating in situ rainfall, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature at 26 locations distributed over Nigeria. Both methods identified CRU as Nigeria's best-gridded climate dataset, followed by CHELSA, TERRA, ERA5, and CPC. The integrated STS values using the group decision-making method for CRU rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures were 17, 10.1, and 20.8, respectively, while CDD values for those variables were 17.7, 11, and 12.2, respectively. The CP based on conventional statistical metrics supported the results obtained using STS and CCD. CRU's Pbias was between 0.5 and 1; KGE ranged from 0.5 to 0.9; NSE ranged from 0.3 to 0.8; and NRMSE between - 30 and 68.2, which were much better than the other products. The findings establish STS and CCD's ability to evaluate the performance of climate data by avoiding the complex and time-consuming multi-criteria decision algorithms based on multiple statistical metrics.