Climate Policymaking Research Articles

Thinking with Children: Climate Change and the Democratic Politics of Renewal and Risk

AbstractClimate change poses serious political challenges to liberal democracies arising from the problem of short-termism and the priority accorded to the vested interests of present adults over the vulnerabilities of children and future generations. This article aims to analyse the justifications, benefits, and policy implications of centring children in climate change politics in order to overcome these problems. The central argument is that ‘thinking with children’ introduces normative vantage points for tackling climate change based on taking responsibility for future harms. Such a vantage point also produces new sites of contestation shaped by adult representations of the renewal and risk embodied in children. First, we outline what “thinking with children” means for democratic politics, focussing on how child-as method approaches centre the injustices faced by children and youth and the implications for the renewal of democracy. We then analyse how this normative shift to centre children addresses the problems of vested interests and short-termism by de-naturalising present adult interests, foregrounding impacts on young people as the future demos, and giving long-term priority to the affectedness of future generations. Finally, we analyse the policy implications that thinking with children offers, using a recent landmark court case in Australia to propose independent legal standing for children in public interest cases and the introduction of Child Impact Assessments in climate policymaking.

Local preferences for the adoption and modification of climate policy instruments under a radical left government: unveiling the impact and legacy of Barcelona in Common

ABSTRACT This study aims to uncover how shifting towards a radical left ideology affects a city’s climate policy. Using semi-structured interviews with stakeholders and an analysis of local action plans and laws enacted in Barcelona between 1984 and May 2023, we find that the period of local government led by the radical left, embodied by Barcelona in Common, saw a significant increase in the adoption of climate-related policy instruments, with a preference for ‘soft’ over ‘hard’ measures. Likewise, this administration more actively raised the ambition of pre-existing policy instruments, though evidence suggests that this trend is driven by other, non-ideological factors. The results further show that ‘hard’ policy instruments especially were more prone to changes, both in terms of raising or reducing policy ambition. Overall, these findings enhance our understanding of local climate policymaking and how it is affected by partisan politics.

Lithium scale-making and extractivist counter-futurities in Bolivia

This article uses the ethnography of the prelives of lithium industrialization in Bolivia to contribute to wider debates – in anthropology and beyond – about the essentially contested nature of the green energy transition. Based on research conducted between 2019 and 2023, the article examines the topographies of production and sociopolitical mobilization that are entangled with Bolivia’s state-controlled lithium project but which resist the various pressures to reorient social and productive worlds around arguably the most important ‘critical’ mineral for climate policy-making. The article develops a theoretical framework for understanding these localized counter-futurities, one in which the image of scale-making takes on both vertical and horizontal dimensions. An anthropology of energy, climate justice, and resource imaginaries that is critically attuned to these inter-scalar frictions is one that must also be able to project itself through the kaleidoscope of competing energy narratives as a form of both demystification and ethnographic truth-telling.

Do climate acts of EU countries enable the most vulnerable to participate in climate policymaking?

One way to give recognition to and account for vulnerability in climate policymaking is enhanced public participation. This study examines national climate acts across the EU Member States from this perspective, paying particular attention to those members of the public who are considered most climate vulnerable. The analysis finds that few of the acts address public participation, and none of the acts examined directly provides for the participation of specified groups of people based on their presumed vulnerability to climate change impacts. There are, however, participation mechanisms that take into account climate vulnerable groups. Yet, many states have not regarded the national climate act as the legal instrument of choice for regulating public participation in climate policymaking. However, this paper argues that the institutionalization of public participation in the national climate acts would have added value.

Assessing carbon budgets and reduction pathways in different income levels with neural network forecasting

Understanding carbon emissions across income levels is vital to limiting global warming to below 1.5 °C and 2 °C, as the Paris Agreement outlines. Unequal emission patterns can affect global remaining carbon budgets, necessitating differentiated strategies. This paper introduces a unique perspective to forecasting carbon emissions and determining the remaining carbon budget relative to income levels and associated socioeconomic factors. Leveraging Pearson correlation analysis and Bayesian-optimised Artificial Neural Network methods, the study examines emissions and carbon budgets of thirty countries, representing 82 % of global carbon emissions in 2022, under a business-as-usual scenario across various income levels. Findings reveal distinct patterns, with high-income countries experiencing declining emissions while middle- and low-income countries anticipate increases. High-income countries are projected to deplete their 2.0 °C budgets later than middle- and low-income countries, with an estimated depletion around 2052 and 2046–2048, respectively. Proposed mitigation and adaptation strategies tailored to income levels include investment in advanced technologies for high-income countries, promoting energy efficiency and renewable energy transition for middle-income countries, and expanding clean energy access for low-income countries. This study advocates the importance of integrating income levels and socioeconomic factors into climate policymaking, offering insights for policymakers, environmentalists, and businesses to tailor interventions and promote equitable climate action.

Embedding justice into climate policy and practice relevant to tourism

Climate change in tourism discussions rarely address justice concerns. This work critically examines the intricate relationship between climate change, climate justice, and tourism, emphasising the urgent need for a holistic approach to address the interconnected challenges of tourism-related sustainable development. The paper builds on a climate justice framework encompassing recognition, procedural, distributive, and restorative justice to systematically connect justice dimensions to the climate change-tourism nexus. A shift towards a performative justice framework includes all notions of justice and underscores the significance of examining the various justice challenges when embedding justice into climate policymaking. Enhancing visibility of climate justice should foster collaboration among researchers, policymakers, and advocates for climate justice. Ultimately, this article advocates for the development of just climate policies and practices, and an inclusive socio-economic transition at the local, global, and intergenerational levels.

Investigating the asymmetric impact of artificial intelligence on renewable energy under climate policy uncertainty

The focus on sustainable development and the transition to renewable energy sources has intensified due to the risks associated with climate change. This study provides new insights into the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) and climate policy uncertainty (CPU) on the development of renewable energy (RE) in China. Utilizing a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) framework, the asymmetric relationship between these variables from January 2013 to April 2023 is revealed. The empirical results indicate a significant positive asymmetric effect of AI on RE development, with downturns in AI having a more pronounced influence compared to upswings. Additionally, CPU has a positive effect on RE development, also exhibiting an asymmetric pattern where declines in CPU have a more substantial impact than upturns. These findings highlight the critical roles of AI and CPU in renewable energy development and add new dimensions to existing research. Policymakers should consider these asymmetric dynamics when formulating strategies to facilitate the energy transition through climate policymaking and the advancement of AI-driven technologies.

NGO strategy, policy networks, and climate policymaking process in China

NGO strategy, policy networks, and climate policymaking process in China

Citizens’ assemblies in Brazil: an analysis of the role of mini-publics on building democratic participatory climate public policies

This article aims to explore how Brazilian city-level public officials have used citizens’ assemblies to implement climate policies effectively in communities where other emergencies require political action. We analyze the implementation of citizens’ assemblies on climate change in three Brazilian cities in different regions, with distinct demographic densities, social development rates, and mayors’ political affiliations. Cities are where people experience the most consequences of climate change. In the Brazilian context, the Bolsonaro federal administration has weakened both environmental and citizen participation policies. This adds to previously known challenges for policy making in the issue, including countering the interests of some industries and the construction sector. Citizens’ assemblies are a democratic innovation that promotes the inclusion of the population in the development of public policies, particularly in times of democratic crisis. In this study, we examine the implementation process of citizens’ assemblies in Brazil through interviews and documentary analysis of experiences implemented by the Brazilian NGO Delibera Brasil. This research offers valuable insights into the role of citizens’ assemblies as catalysts for informed and participatory climate policymaking in Brazilian municipalities.

Indigenous climate justice in Aotearoa New Zealand: the dangers of (mis)recognition within climate policymaking

This paper explores Indigenous climate justice in the settler-colonial context of Aotearoa New Zealand. We adopt the interdisciplinary approach of Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA) to examine the extent to which Māori knowledge systems (mātauranga Māori) and Māori status as Treaty partners with the Crown (New Zealand Government) were recognised included in New Zealand’s Zero Carbon Act (ZCA). Through our exploration we reflect on and explore Māori experiences of climate injustice through lack of recognition or misrecognition. CDA helps to identify whose voices dominated the ZCA process, revealing unequal power relations between stakeholder groups, the Crown, and Māori. By analysing policy documents, long-form submissions from Māori, and interviews with Māori we shed light on the power dynamics which shaped the ZCA process and the implicit assumptions regarding Māori participation in climate policy decision-making. The misrepresentation of Māori as stakeholders rather than treaty partners perpetuates historical legacies of colonization. By applying CDA within the context of climate justice, we highlight tensions between Māori aspirations for partnership and the actual treatment of Māori as stakeholders rather than Treaty partners. By closely examining the narratives surrounding the formation of the ZCA, CDA reveals the ways in which Māori voices are side-lined, their aspirations and concerns dismissed, their Indigenous knowledge systems (mātauranga-a-iwi and mātauranga-a-hapu) marginalized, and their rights to retain their tino rangatiratanga (sovereignty) violated.

Unraveling the dynamics of atmospheric methane: the impact of anthropogenic and natural emissions

The reduction in methane concentration is crucial for achieving the goals of the Paris agreement. However, its annual growth rate is unstable, and understanding the reasons for changes in methane growth is essential for climate policy-making. Currently, there is considerable uncertainty regarding its attribution. Here, we utilize multi-source data and optimal fingerprinting methods to detect the contributions of several key drivers to the methane trend and interannual variability. We find that the methane growth trend is primarily influenced by anthropogenic emissions, while interannual variability is predominantly determined by wetland and biomass burning emissions. This result underscores the central role of anthropogenic emissions in methane dynamics, providing confidence in the effectiveness of human efforts to control methane atmospheric concentrations through emission reductions. It also helps alleviate concerns about the recent surge in atmospheric methane concentration, as it may be a short-term peak caused by increased wetland emissions rather than a long-term change.

Carrots with(out) sticks: credit policy and the limits of green central banking

This article considers the role of central bank interventions in credit and financial markets in support of decarbonization. Drawing on the critical macrofinance literature, we argue that central banks are constrained in greening financial flows by their continued adherence to monetary dominance – prioritizing short-term price stability – and the structural demands of global market-based finance. This has led to a narrow focus on 'market-fixing' and 'de-risking' policy interventions, implicitly outsourcing the green transition to private finance whilst asserting that central banks cannot be seen as 'climate policymakers'. Moving beyond the constraints of this macrofinancial regime remains challenging, as we illustrate with the European Central Bank's (ECB) tilting of its corporate asset purchase program. We explore the lessons from the Post-World War II credit guidance regimes employed in many countries and consider how these could be updated to meet the challenges posed by market-based finance. Such a shift would require an evolution in the role of the central bank as a public agency, challenging current norms around independence and market neutrality.

Forerunner city or net-zero opportunist? Carbon dioxide removal in Stockholm, residual emissions and risks of mitigation deterrence

The City of Stockholm aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2030 by compensating for residual emissions using bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Relying heavily on negative emissions to reach the target, the city's strategy presents an interesting case of net-zero climate policymaking. Based on the analysis of interviews, City Council debates, and policy documents, the Stockholm case underscores the importance of understanding municipal climate policy in a multi-level policy setting, where the ability to govern emissions varies heavily between sectors depending on politics and policy at other levels of governance. Both waste incineration and road transport are perceived to include hard-to-abate emissions in 2030, partly due to governance linkages involving regional, national, and EU-level governing bodies. The energy utility, Stockholm Exergi, plans to implement BECCS, with funding from the EU and other public and private sources, at a heat and power plant. The unique opportunity to use BECCS as part of the city's net-zero target has made it possible to advance the net-zero goal from 2040 to 2030. However, there are risks that relying on BECCS may muffle public debate on what constitutes residual emissions in the city, subsequently leading to smaller municipal investments in emission reductions. Additionally, there are risks that the schedule for implementing BECCS is overly optimistic, meaning goal fulfilment may be threatened. However, this risk is not isolated to BECCS; similar risks are associated with combining fossil fuels with CCS. We recommend that the city critically examines the residual emissions, considers separate targets instead of a net-zero goal, and conducts risk assessments of key mitigation technologies to maintain its status as climate policy forerunner.

Policy learning from evidence during polycrises: a case of EU environmental policy

Despite their increasing frequency and magnitude, research on how polycrises influence policymaking has been remarkably scarce. In this article, we approach this issue from an evidence-based policy learning perspective. We explore how the polycrisis involving the progressive intersections between the climate change crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the energy crisis influenced evidence-based policy learning underlying the European Union’s climate policymaking. Our findings show that at the initial phases of the polycrisis, interdisciplinary scientific evidence was employed to depoliticize the climate change crisis and facilitate a paradigmatic policy shift. Yet, as relatively faster burning crises overlapped, such evidence played an increasingly substantiating role for previously established institutional choices, and then its role further diminished as more crises overlapped. These findings offer a more robust theoretical understanding of evidence-based policy learning and its contribution to policy change within polycrises. This also draws practitioners’ attention to the need for actively re-aligning evidence-based policy learning practices as political conditions evolve during polycrises.

Social psychological pathways to climate justice: Emerging insights and intersecting challenges

As the impacts of climate change grow in frequency and intensity, climate justice—the recognition of climate change’s unequal impacts across populations, as well as inequities in the benefits and burdens from societal responses to climate change—has become a central focus of climate policymaking, advocacy, and scholarship. In this review, we take stock of these trends to consider what social psychologists can contribute to this discourse. We draw from integrative perspectives within the environmental social sciences, as well as emerging insights from psychology, communication, and public health, to highlight three areas with growing policy relevance that are ripe for social psychological inquiry: (a) understanding factors that influence climate vulnerability, its causes, and remediation; (b) identifying barriers and pathways to inclusive climate governance and decision-making; and (c) enhancing justice in climate solutions. For each, we consider the relevance of group and intergroup processes and highlight emerging empirical insights and key unanswered questions. We conclude by considering the urgency and challenges of translating psychological research to address climate injustice and highlighting opportunities for advancing the societal relevance of this research.

Embedding deliberation: guiding the use of deliberative mini-publics in climate policy-making

ABSTRACT The use of deliberative mini-publics (DMPs), such as citizens’ assemblies, is becoming more common in climate policy-making across many countries. The upsurge of these methods reflects an acknowledgement of the need to engage the publics in policy choices that significantly impact their lives. Many DMPs to date have focused on the general challenge of decarbonization, across a range of policy areas. In this article, we first situate DMPs within the wider field of public engagement methods. We then draw from deliberative democratic theory and practice to argue that the next step for climate DMPs is to focus them on specific climate policy challenges and to embed and routinize their use in existing policy-making institutions. We present a case study of the targeted use of a climate DMP, which we designed and ran in partnership with the UK Climate Change Committee, focused on home energy decarbonization. We use this case study to explore barriers and challenges to embedding such an approach in climate policy-making institutions. Finally, we suggest ways that such challenges can be overcome and identify a number of tensions that must be navigated as DMPs become embedded in climate policy-making.

The role of the IPCC in assessing actionable evidence for climate policymaking

Climate policymakers across the world seek inputs from the research community to determine appropriate policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which perform the largest available analytical exercise in this area, offer scarce analytics on climate policy design. Here, we explore how, despite its ‘neutral, policy-relevant but not policy-prescriptive’ principle, the IPCC’s analytical scenario process in Working Group III on Mitigation has adopted an implicitly prescriptive policy position in favour of carbon pricing. Drawing on the example of alternative climate-economic modelling using the E3ME-FTT framework, we explore a pathway for the IPCC process that could cater for diverse ranges of more realistic granular policies. We conclude that, to become truly policy-relevant, the IPCC’s climate mitigation work is in urgent need of reform to provide more effective support for policy design.

Political trust and climate policy choice: evidence from a conjoint experiment

AbstractWhy do citizens support or reject climate change mitigation policies? This is not an easy choice: citizens need to support the government in making these decisions, accept potentially radical behavior change, and have altruism across borders and for future generations. A substantial literature argues that political trust facilitates citizen support for these complex policy decisions by mitigating the cost and uncertainty that policies impose on individuals and buttressing support for government intervention. We test whether this is the case with a pre-registered conjoint experiment fielded in Germany in which we vary fundamental aspects of policy design that are related to the cost, uncertainty, and implementation of climate change policies. Contrary to strong theoretical expectations and previous work, we find no difference between those with low and high trust on their support for different policy attributes, assuaging the concern that low and declining trust inhibits climate policymaking.

The Influence of Non-State Actors in Climate Policymaking

Purpose: The main objective of this study is to explore the influence of non-state actors in climate policymaking.
 Methodology: The study adopted a desktop research methodology. Desk research refers to secondary data or that which can be collected without fieldwork. Desk research is basically involved in collecting data from existing resources hence it is often considered a low cost technique as compared to field research, as the main cost is involved in executive’s time, telephone charges and directories. Thus, the study relied on already published studies, reports and statistics. This secondary data was easily accessed through the online journals and library.
 Findings: The findings revealed that there exists a contextual and methodological gap relating to the influence of non-state actors in climate policymaking. Preliminary empirical review revealed that non-state actors, including civil society organizations, corporations, cities, and transnational networks, exert considerable influence through various mechanisms such as advocacy, mobilization, technical expertise, and collaboration with governments. Their involvement is driven by diverse motivations, including environmental stewardship, economic interests, and the pursuit of social and ethical values. One key takeaway from this study is that non-state actors are not merely peripheral actors in the climate policy landscape; rather, they are central to the process of crafting effective climate policies. Their contributions span from raising public awareness and holding governments accountable to providing innovative solutions and pushing for ambitious climate targets. However, the extent of their influence can vary significantly depending on the specific context, the level of government involved, and the particular issue at hand.
 Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: The Network Governance theory, Interest Group theory and the Policy Diffusion theory maybe used to anchor future studies on climate policymaking. Recommendations made from the study include the following: enhancing transparency and accountability, strengthening collaboration, promoting inclusivity, supporting capacity building and global knowledge sharing.

The Role of Subnational Climate Policy Initiatives in Achieving Global Climate Goals

Purpose: The main objective of this study was to investigate the role of subnational climate policy initiatives in achieving global climate goals.
 Methodology: The study adopted a desktop research methodology. Desk research refers to secondary data or that which can be collected without fieldwork. Desk research is basically involved in collecting data from existing resources hence it is often considered a low cost technique as compared to field research, as the main cost is involved in executive’s time, telephone charges and directories. Thus, the study relied on already published studies, reports and statistics. This secondary data was easily accessed through the online journals and library.
 Findings: The findings revealed that there exists a contextual and methodological gap relating to the role of subnational climate policy initiatives in achieving global climate goals. Preliminary empirical review revealed that subnational climate policies have a demonstrable impact on emissions reductions and climate resilience. By adopting innovative approaches to renewable energy deployment, carbon pricing mechanisms, and climate adaptation strategies, subnational governments can serve as laboratories of experimentation, showcasing the feasibility and effectiveness of various climate solutions. These findings emphasize the importance of recognizing subnational entities as pivotal actors in climate policymaking, with the potential to catalyze broader change.
 Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: The Diffusion of Innovations theory, Multi-Level Governance theory and the Policy Innovation Diffusion theory may be used to anchor future studies achieving global climate goals. The study recommended for the strengthening of intergovernmental collaborations, sharing best practices and lessons learnt, aligning climate policies with local context, measuring and reporting progress and engaging stakeholders and civil society.