Climate-induced Shifts Research Articles

Dying of thirst: Osmoregulation by a hawkmoth pollinator in response to variability in ambient humidity and nectar availability

Climate-induced shifts in flowering phenology can disrupt pollinator-floral resource synchrony, especially in desert ecosystems where rainfall dictates both. However, baseline metrics to gauge pollinator health in the wild amidst rapid climate change are lacking. Our laboratory-based study establishes a baseline for pollinator physiological state by exploring how osmotic conditions influence survivorship in a desert hawkmoth pollinator, Manduca sexta. We sampled hemolymph osmolality from over 1000 lab-grown moths at 20 %, 50 %, and 80 % ambient humidity levels. Starved moths maintained healthy osmolality of 350–400 mmol/kg for 1–3 days after eclosion regardless of ambient humidity, but it sharply rose to 550 mmol/kg after 4–5 days in low and moderate humidity, and after 5 days in high humidity. Starved moths in low humidity conditions perished within 5 days, while those in high humidity survived twice as long. Moths fed synthetic Datura wrightii nectar, synthetic Agave palmeri nectar, or water, maintained osmolality within a healthy range of 350–400mmol/kg. The same was true for moths fed authentic floral nectars from Datura and Agave plants, although moths consumed more synthetic than authentic nectars, possibly due to non-sugar constituents. Simulating a 4-day mismatch between pollinator emergence and nectar availability, a single nectar meal osmotically rescued moths under dry ambient conditions. Our findings highlight hemolymph osmolality as a rapid and accurate biomarker distinguishing dehydrated from hydrated states in insect pollinators.

Climate change will exacerbate land conflict between agriculture and timber production

Timber and agricultural production must both increase throughout this century to meet rising demand. Understanding how climate-induced shifts in agricultural suitability will trigger competition with timber for productive land is crucial. Here, we combine predictions of agricultural suitability under different climate change scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) with timber-production maps to show that 240–320 Mha (20–26%) of current forestry land will become more suitable for agriculture by 2100. Forestry land contributes 21–27% of new agricultural productivity frontiers (67–105 Mha) despite only occupying 10% of the surface of the land. Agricultural frontiers in forestry land occur disproportionately in key timber-producing nations (Russia, the USA, Canada and China) and are closer to population centres and existing cropland than frontiers outside forestry land. To minimize crop expansion into forestry land and prevent shifting timber harvests into old-growth tropical and boreal forests to meet timber demand, emissions must be reduced, agricultural efficiency improved and sustainable intensification invested in.

Climate change is associated with higher phytoplankton biomass and longer blooms in the West Antarctic Peninsula

The Antarctic Peninsula (West Antarctica) marine ecosystem has undergone substantial changes due to climate-induced shifts in atmospheric and oceanic temperatures since the 1950s. Using 25 years of satellite data (1998-2022), this study presents evidence that phytoplankton biomass and bloom phenology in the West Antarctic Peninsula are significantly changing as a response to anthropogenic climate change. Enhanced phytoplankton biomass was observed along the West Antarctic Peninsula, particularly in the early austral autumn, resulting in longer blooms. Long-term sea ice decline was identified as the main driver enabling phytoplankton growth in early spring and autumn, in parallel with a recent intensification of the Southern Annular Mode (2010-ongoing), which was observed to influence regional variability. Our findings contribute to the understanding of the complex interplay between environmental changes and phytoplankton responses in this climatically key region of the Southern Ocean and raise important questions regarding the far-reaching consequences that these ecological changes may have on global carbon sequestration and Antarctic food webs in the future.

Exploring climate change resilience of major crops in Somalia: implications for ensuring food security

ABSTRACT The complex relationship between climate change and major crop output poses urgent challenges for contemporary food production systems. Recognizing the diverse responses of different crops to climatic stressors, it is necessary to investigate the repercussions of climate-induced shifts in various crop yields. Focused on the adverse extreme weather impacts on food security, this research employs multiple specifications to assess the effects of climate change on major crops—maize, sorghum, rice, wheat, sugarcane, bananas, and beans—in Somalia using annual data spanning 1991–2019. The empirical findings from the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach reveal that increasing precipitation positively impacts the long-run output of sorghum, sugarcane, and banana while adversely affecting bean production. Conversely, changing temperatures detrimentally affect the long-run output of sorghum, rice, and beans, although they enhance rice and sorghum production in the short-run. Intriguingly, the study reveals that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and crop-harvested areas significantly enhance the yields of various crops. Moreover, agricultural labour positively impacts bananas while hampering other crop outputs. Based on these results, the study proposes the adoption of climate-resilient crop varieties, investment in irrigation infrastructure, enhanced weather prediction and early warning systems, as well as the promotion of sustainable land management.

The changing nature of groundwater in the global water cycle.

In recent decades, climate change and other anthropogenic activities have substantially affected groundwater systems worldwide. These impacts include changes in groundwater recharge, discharge, flow, storage, and distribution. Climate-induced shifts are evident in altered recharge rates, greater groundwater contribution to streamflow in glacierized catchments, and enhanced groundwater flow in permafrost areas. Direct anthropogenic changes include groundwater withdrawal and injection, regional flow regime modification, water table and storage alterations, and redistribution of embedded groundwater in foods globally. Notably, groundwater extraction contributes to sea level rise, increasing the risk of groundwater inundation in coastal areas. The role of groundwater in the global water cycle is becoming more dynamic and complex. Quantifying these changes is essential to ensure sustainable supply of fresh groundwater resources for people and ecosystems.

Imagining reef futures after mass coral bleaching events

Extreme climate events are dramatically changing social-ecological systems (SESs) and challenging long-standing environmental governance paradigms. How high level governance actors (e.g. decision-makers and those who advise them) imagine the future of SESs can shape what management approaches are pursued and how SESs change. Previous research on climate-induced shifts in governance suggests that: 1) crises can provide windows of opportunity to catalyze transitions, and 2) transitions require governance actors to revisit and reimagine possible management solutions and the underlying purposes and ultimate desired outcomes of resource management. Articulating the multiple visions of system futures that emerge in the wake of a crisis can encourage creative responses to change that can incorporate multiple perspectives and provide space for decision-makers to consider different options for management and potential conflicts therein. However, empirical research is needed to examine how governance actors actually envision future management in the context of a crisis. Here we explore governance actors’ perspectives on future pathways for reef management in the wake of an extreme climate event, and what actions are underway to pursue these pathways. We specifically investigate perspectives after recurrent mass coral bleaching events impacted the Great Barrier Reef through 36 semi-structured interviews with governance actors across the region. Drawing on climate adaptation frameworks and narrative policy analysis, we demonstrate that crises trigger changes in governance actors’ perspectives on the goals and approaches of reef management. However, rather than a single vision emerging in the wake of crisis, we find that multiple, and at times conflicting, visions for the role of management and plausible futures for the GBR are simultaneously shaping the trajectory of coral reef governance. Our findings suggest that transforming governance after crises involves negotiating multiple concurrent visions for social-ecological futures.

Climate-induced shifts in irrigation water demand and supply during sensitive crop growth phases in South Asia

This study investigated the shifts in irrigation water demand and supply of the major staple and water-intensive crops (wheat and rice) in the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra (IGB) river basins of South Asia under the combined impacts of climate change and socio-economic development during the period 1981–2100. It explores irrigation water usage during climate-sensitive crop growth phases (i.e. vegetative and reproductive which required ~ 60% of the total seasonal (sowing to harvest) water demand), which is supposed to be crucial for long-term integrated crop water management. A hydrology vegetation model Lund Potsdam Jena Managed Land is forced with an ensemble of eight downscaled (5 arc-min) global climate model’s using the RCP (Representative concentration pathways) -SSP (Shared socio-economic pathways) framework, i.e. RCP4.5-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3. To investigate phase-specific crop water projections, trend analysis is performed. It shows a significant (p<0.001) increase in irrigation water demand during the vegetative phase of wheat (6 mm) and reproductive phase of rice (26 mm) and a decrease during the reproductive phase of wheat (13 mm) and vegetative phase of rice (11 mm) in selected study sites. The large decrease in projected irrigation demand for wheat can be explained by a shortening of the growing season length as a result of rising temperatures and increased precipitation. Whereas, an increase in irrigation demand for rice is a combined effect of higher temperatures and less precipitation during the reproductive phase in the region. At the same time, irrigation supply by surface water and groundwater is likely to change in future due to warmer and drier growing periods, causing a significant increase in groundwater irrigation, mainly for rice. Our major research findings show the importance of crop water assessments during the sensitive crop growth phases of wheat and rice which vary in space and time. Including crop phase-specific, climate impact assessments of regional and global projection will help improve the region’s existing crop-water management strategies and adaptation practices.

Climate-induced shifts in grassland bird nesting phenology have implications for grassland management

Grasslands are among the most impacted ecosystems globally. In the midcontinent of North America, a > 80% loss of grasslands has made their conservation a major priority for resource managers. Grassland ecosystems evolved under periodic disturbances; consequently, grassland management often involves regular actions such as grazing, haying, or burning to maintain ecosystem integrity. The timing of such practices has direct implications on grassland ecology, agricultural economics, and survival and fecundity of grassland nesting birds (hereafter grassland birds). We conducted a meta-analysis on the nesting phenology of grassland birds throughout North America, focusing on nest-survival literature. We constructed a well-fitting model to predict median date of expected nest departure (hereafter fledge date) for grassland birds across the midcontinent. Predictions from our model demonstrate considerable spatial variation in median nesting phenology that is predictable using a spatially explicit spring phenology index. Median fledge dates were 8 or 13 days earlier in years of extreme weather conditions (dry or wet, respectively) than in years of average conditions. Species that generally nest in taller vegetation tended to have later median nest phenologies than those using shorter vegetation. Our results incorporate the most rigorous information available in the literature on nesting phenology of 36 grassland bird species and improve information available to managers about nesting phenology of grassland birds in the midcontinent of North America. Our predictions approximate the day when one-half of the nesting efforts would be complete for a given area within the midcontinent grasslands and can inform management and conservation decisions about the timing of management actions in grassland ecosystems.

Which Investors Matter for Equity Valuations and Expected Returns?

Abstract Based on an asset demand system, we develop a framework to quantify the impact of market trends and changes in regulation on asset prices, price informativeness, and the wealth distribution. Our leading applications are the transition from active to passive investment management and climate-induced shifts in asset demand. The transition from active to passive investment management had a large impact on equity prices but a small impact on price informativeness because capital did not flow from more to less informed investors on average. This finding is based on a new measure of investor-level informativeness that identifies which investors are more informed about future profitability. Climate-induced shifts in asset demand have a potentially large impact on equity prices and the wealth distribution, implying capital gains for passive investment advisors, pension funds, insurance companies, and private banking and capital losses for active investment advisors and hedge funds.

Plant-symbiotic fungal diversity tracks variation in vegetation and the abiotic environment along an extended elevational gradient in the Himalayas.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi can benefit plants under environmental stress, and influence plant adaptation to warmer climates. However, very little is known about the ecology of these fungi in alpine environments. We sampled plant roots along a large fraction (1941-6150m asl) of the longest terrestrial elevational gradient on Earth and used DNA metabarcoding to identify AM fungi. We hypothesized that AM fungal alpha and beta diversity decreases with increasing elevation, and that different vegetation types comprise dissimilar communities, with cultured (putatively ruderal) taxa increasingly represented at high elevations. We found that alpha diversity of AM fungal communities declined linearly with elevation, whereas within-site taxon turnover (beta diversity) was unimodally related to elevation. Composition of AM fungal communities differed between vegetation types and was influenced by elevation, mean annual temperature and precipitation. In general, Glomeraceae taxa dominated at all elevations and vegetation types, however, higher elevations were associated with increased presence of Acaulosporaceae, Ambisporaceae and Claroideoglomeraceae. Contrary to our expectation, the proportion of cultured AM fungal taxa in communities decreased with elevation. These results suggest that, in this system, climate-induced shifts in habitat conditions may facilitate more diverse AM fungal communities at higher elevations but could also favour ruderal taxa.

Multi-sensor detection of spring breakup phenology of Canada's lakes

The ice phenology of freshwater lakes throughout the Northern Hemisphere has undergone important climate-induced shifts over the past century. In Canada's North, where freshwater lakes and wetlands cover 15 to 40% of the landscape, monitoring ice phenology is vital to understand its impacts on climate, socio-economic, ecological, and hydrological systems. The rapid and dynamic nature of ice phenology events has restricted monitoring efforts to the use of satellite sensors with frequent revisit times (e.g., MODIS, AVHRR), but their low resolution (e.g., > 500 m) limits observations to larger water bodies. However, the increased abundance of high-resolution open-access satellite imagery combined with the rise of cloud-computing technologies has provided opportunities to reduce the trade-off between temporal (i.e., revisit time) and spatial (i.e., pixel size) resolution allowing for lake ice monitoring over broad scales. In this study, we present the Open Pixel-based Earth eNgine Ice (OPEN-ICE) algorithm implemented in Google Earth Engine (GEE), which classifies imagery from multiple open-access optical sensors, then combines them to construct dense annual time series of ice-water observations and estimate pixel spring breakup dates at a 30-m resolution. Using Landsat 7 ETM+, Landsat 8 OLI, and Sentinel-2 MSI scenes over lakes spanning northern latitudes, we build reference datasets to train decision trees that discriminate between ice, water, and clouds. We combine ice-water classifications from each sensor into annual time series and remove misclassifications with a temporal filter applied using a pixel-wise logistic regression. We then detect the sequence of transition from ice to water in each pixel's time series to estimate the occurrence of breakup each year. We deploy the OPEN-ICE algorithm over all freshwater pixels of Canada for the period of 2013 to 2021. Spring ice phenology events estimated by OPEN-ICE show high accuracy when compared to whole-lake breakup dates measured by the Canadian Ice Service in 105 lakes across 9 years, with mean bias errors of −1.10 and − 0.69 days for breakup start and end, respectively. We apply the OPEN-ICE algorithm to 4000 lakes across Canada and evaluate differences in breakup dates across ecozones and lake sizes. Our new OPEN-ICE tool provides accurate estimates of annual spring breakup events applicable across all boreal and arctic regions to monitor the rapid changes taking place in these vulnerable ecosystems.

Evaluating the household-level climate-electricity nexus across three cities through statistical learning techniques

As the climate crisis intensifies, rising temperatures and increased frequency of extreme events are likely to strain the electricity system. This will be particularly disastrous if the grid is unprepared for the climate-induced shifts in electricity demand that will result from increased temperatures. Recently, the use of data-driven modeling has emerged as a way to predict these climate-induced changes in electricity demand, however, much of the work has focused on entire sectors or regions. Here, we focus on the impact of climatic variables on hourly household electricity use for air conditioning. Our goal was to determine the best model for predicting the air conditioning use based on climate variables, as well as use that model to extract insights related to the household-level climate-electricity nexus. Using smart meter data from three US cities (Austin, Texas, Ithaca, New York, and San Diego, California), we tested seven different models of varying complexity. Ultimately, Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) was selected as the best model across all three cities (NRMSE ranged between 0.085 and 0.250). Additionally, we found that while the majority of the climate variables were important, relative humidity was the most important variable in each city. Given that air conditioning tends to drive non-base electricity demand in the summer, understanding these nuances in the climate-electricity nexus as it applies to air conditioning is critical for building a resilient grid.

A note on humpback whales off the coast of Ecuador during the 1997 ‘El Niño’ event

The southeastern Pacific humpback whale stock was studied for seven years (1991-1997) on the central coast of Ecuador (1°25’S, 79°55’W) during the breeding season (June-September). Boat trips were conducted from two different sites, Puerto López and Puerto Cayo, following well-defined routes offshore. In 1997, a strong El Niño affected the eastern Pacific area. In order to try and investigate possible climate-induced shifts, results obtained from 1996, a ‘normal’ year, were compared with those obtained in 1997, when water temperature was 4°C above its historical mean. Four factors were considered: whale encounter rate; distribution; group structure; and crude birth rate. The whale encounter rate decreased in 1997 for both sites: 11.2% for Puerto López and 8.7% for Puerto Cayo, although the differences were not statistically significant (p &gt; 0.05). Group distribution in relation to water depth was not significantly different (p &gt; 0.05), nor were the mean distances from sighting sites to port (p &gt; 0.05). Group size was equal in both years for Puerto López, but in Puerto Cayo it was larger in 1997, although not significantly (p &gt; 0.05). Group composition was not significantly different (p &gt; 0.05). No difference in birth rate was found in Puerto López. Results for Puerto Cayo are difficult to interpret. No changes in the investigated parameters were found in the study area during El Niño 1997. Since humpback whales do not feed in tropical waters, they may not be as vulnerable to El Niño events as other marine mammals.

Relating marine mammal distribution to water column prey structure derived from echosounding

Managing human impacts on marine mammal populations depends on understanding their distributions in space and time. Knowledge of these distributions is becoming increasingly important due to offshore energy development and climate-induced shifts in oceanic habitat. Most models assessing pelagic marine mammal abundance and distribution primarily use ocean surface or ocean floor variables as proxies for water column habitat. Here, we used a ship-based marine mammal sighting survey to test the utility of echosounder-based predictive variables for modeling marine mammal distribution and abundance. We assessed the distribution of 7 marine mammal taxa and 3 feeding guilds along the shelf break off the northeast USA relative to prey structure derived from acoustic data. We classified prey into 4 categories: (1) fish with swimbladders; (2) small resonant bubbles as phytoplankton, fish larvae, and gelatinous zooplankton; (3) fluid-like scatterers such as krill and copepods; and (4) fish with no swimbladder. We quantified the spatial structure of prey by calculating backscattering strength, location, dispersion, occupied areas, evenness, and aggregation. Spatial resolution along the survey track line was set to bins 1000 m in distance and either 50 or 200 m in depth. We then built generalized additive models (GAMs) using these acoustically derived variables to explain marine mammal distribution. The resulting GAMs explained between 9 and 38% of deviance, with model fit often reflecting aspects of foraging depth and prey preference. This approach could contribute to improved management through more accurate species distribution models that employ direct measurements of prey.

A research agenda for nonvascular photoautotrophs under climate change.

Nonvascular photoautotrophs (NVP), including bryophytes, lichens, terrestrial algae, and cyanobacteria, are increasingly recognized as being essential to ecosystem functioning in many regions of the world. Current research suggests that climate change may pose a substantial threat to NVP, but the extent to which this will affect the associated ecosystem functions and services is highly uncertain. Here, we propose a research agenda to address this urgent question, focusing on physiological and ecological processes that link NVP to ecosystem functions while also taking into account the substantial taxonomic diversity across multiple ecosystem types. Accordingly, we developed a new categorization scheme, based on microclimatic gradients, which simplifies the high physiological and morphological diversity of NVP and world-wide distribution with respect to several broad habitat types. We found that habitat-specific ecosystem functions of NVP will likely be substantially affected by climate change, and more quantitative process understanding is required on (1) potential for acclimation, (2) response to elevated CO2 , (3) role of the microbiome, and (4) feedback to (micro)climate. We suggest an integrative approach of innovative, multimethod laboratory and field experiments and ecophysiological modelling, for which sustained scientific collaboration on NVP research will be essential.

Climate-induced shifts in composition and protection regulate temperature sensitivity of carbon decomposition through soil profile

Through soil profile, both chemical composition of soil organic carbon (SOC) and edaphic physiochemical properties present a vertical gradient, likely resulting in depth-specific SOC dynamics in response to climate change (e.g., global warming). We assessed temperature sensitivity of SOC decomposition (Q10) by incubating (128 days) soils sampled across five sequential layer depths (i.e., 0–10, 10–20, 20–30, 30–50, and 50–100 cm) at ten sites along a ∼2500 m elevational transect (from ∼2100 m to ∼4600 m) covering various vegetation types (from evergreen broadleaved forest to alpine meadow) in southeast Tibet, China. The Q10 of SOC decomposition was significantly affected by both soil depth and elevation. However, depth-induced variation of Q10 was much smaller than that induced by the elevation gradient. Across the ten sites and five soil depths, chemical composition of SOC and its physiochemical protection against decomposition contributed >80% to the explained variance of Q10 values. Path analysis suggested that climate indirectly affected Q10 via its regulation on chemical composition of SOC and their physiochemical stabilization. The results from a carbon model constrained by the collected data further revealed that fast, slow and passive SOC pools exhibited significant difference in their Q10, resulted from different involvement of chemical composition and physicochemical protection in their decomposition. Our findings demonstrate similar temperature sensitivity of SOC decomposition across soil depths, but spatially heterogeneous temperature sensitivity due to climate-induced variability of both chemical recalcitrance of SOC and its physiochemical protection against decomposition.

Large fires or small fires, will they differ in affecting shifts in species composition and distributions under climate change?

Climate change is expected to increase fire activity, which has the potential to accelerate climate-induced shifts in species composition and distribution in the boreal-temperate ecotone. Wildfire can kill resident trees, and thus provide establishment opportunities for migrating tree species. However, the role of fire size and its interactions with tree species with varied life-history attributes in driving climate-induced shifts is not understood. Future fire regimes could be characterized by many small fires or a few large fires. Large and small fires create and regulate distinct burn patterns, which may influence tree-species responses and post-fire successional trajectories. Here we investigated the effects of future fire-regime variability on the boreal-temperate ecotone of northeastern China under climate change using a coupled forest dynamic model (LANDIS PRO) and ecosystem process model (LINKAGES). We simulated fire regimes using the LANDIS PRO fire module. We designed two fire scenarios (frequent, small fires and infrequent, large fires) to represent different fire regimes in terms of fire size. Results showed fire-catalyzed, climate-induced transitions from boreal to pioneer and temperate forest communities. Frequent, small fires resulted in 13% and 23% higher increases in pioneer and temperate species respectively, relative to infrequent, large fires. Therefore, species composition shifts were faster following frequent, small fires than infrequent, large fires. The results can help policymakers and forest managers determine tradeoffs among strategies to mitigate or adapt to climate change under altered fire regimes.

Modeling the freshwater ecological response to changes in flow and thermal regimes influenced by reservoir dynamics

Capturing the ecological effects of climate-induced shifts in hydrologic and thermal regimes in regulated river systems remains a challenge in regional-scale studies. In this study, we used a well-established species distribution model to analyze the results of a process-based hydrologic modeling approach that accounts explicitly for regulation impacts on river flow and temperatures. We also accounted for the stream network fragmentation resulting from dam blockage. This combined model framework can be used to predict historical environmental suitability of river reaches for specific fish species and estimate changes in suitability in response to changes in climate and reservoir operations. As a case study in the highly regulated and fragmented Tennessee River system, we examined the environmental suitability for nonnative rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), a species of high recreational value, and native blackfin darter (Etheostoma nigripinne), an endemic species of unique ecological importance. To quantify the impacts of reservoir regulation, we examined the historical environmental suitability, climate change signals, and the environmental drivers of change between the regulated and unregulated model setups. By the end of the 21st century (2080s), historically suitable streams for rainbow trout will disappear due to higher river temperatures. Only 8% of historically suitable streams for blackfin darter will remain but over half of them will be unreachable by current populations due to dam blockage. For river reaches influenced by reservoir regulations, the regulated model projects decreasing environmental suitability for blackfin darter while the unregulated model projects the opposite because of higher river temperatures. The contradictory climate signals between regulated and unregulated models highlight the necessity of considering reservoir regulation.

Chronological Trends and Mercury Bioaccumulation in an Aquatic Semiarid Ecosystem under a Global Climate Change Scenario in the Northeastern Coast of Brazil.

Simple SummaryManaging aquatic systems is becoming increasingly complex due to human impacts, multiple and competing water needs and climate variability. Considering the Hg concentration present in the top layers of sediment (~20 cm around 30 to 40 years) with the outer layers in the tree cores tree rings cores and in the sediment’s cores from Pacoti estuary and the Ceará estuary, overall data indicate an increase in mercury in recent years. A positive and significant correlation (p < 0.05) was revealed between Hg trends in sediments and Hg trends in annular tree rings. This shared Hg pattern reflects local environmental conditions. The results of this work reinforce the indicators previously described in the semiarid NE region of Brazil, showing that global climate change and some anthropogenic factors are key drivers to Hg exposure and biomagnification for wildlife and humans. Possible climate-induced shifts in these aquatic systems highlight the need for accurate and regionally specific metrics of change in the past in response to climate and for improved understanding of response to climate factors. These processes are inducing a greater mobilization of bioavailable Hg, which could allow an acceleration of the biogeochemical transformation of Hg.Due to global warming, in the northeastern semiarid coastal regions of Brazil, regional and global drivers are responsible for decreasing continental runoff and increasing estuarine water residence time, which promotes a greater mobilization of bioavailable mercury (Hg) and allows increasing fluxes and/or bioavailability of this toxic trace element and an acceleration of biogeochemical transformation of Hg. In this work, an application of dendrochemistry analysis (annular tree rings analysis) was developed for the reconstruction of the historical pattern of mercury contamination in a contaminated area, quantifying chronological Hg contamination trends in a tropical semiarid ecosystem (Ceará River Estuary, northeastern coast of Brazil) through registration of mercury concentration on growth rings in specimens of Rhizophora mangle L. and using the assessment in sediments as a support for the comparison of profiles of contamination. The comparison with sediments from the same place lends credibility to this type of analysis, as well as the relationship to the historical profile of contamination in the region, when compared with local data about industries and ecological situation of sampling sites. In order to evaluate the consequences of the described increase in Hg bioavailability and bioaccumulation in aquatic biota, and to assess the biological significance of Hg concentrations in sediments to fish and wildlife, muscle and liver from a bioindicator fish species, S. testudineus, were also analyzed. The results of this work reinforce the indicators previously described in the semiarid NE region of Brazil, which showed that global climate change and some anthropogenic factors are key drivers of Hg exposure and biomagnification for wildlife and humans. Considering the Hg concentration present in the top layers of sediment (~20 cm around 15 to 20 years) with the outer layers in the tree ring cores and in the sediment’s cores from Pacoti estuary and the Ceará estuary, overall the data indicate an increase in mercury in recent years in the Hg surface sediments, especially associated with the fine sediment fraction, mainly due to the increased capacity of small particles to adsorb Hg. There was revealed a positive and significant correlation (p < 0.05) between Hg trends in sediments and Hg trends in annular tree rings. This shared Hg pattern reflects local environmental conditions. The Hg concentration values in S. testudineus from both study areas are not restrictive to human consumption, being below the legislated European limit for Hg in foodstuffs. The results from S. testudineus muscles analysis suggest a significant and linear increase in Hg burden with increasing fish length, indicating that the specimens are accumulating Hg as they grow. The results from both rivers show an increase in BSAF with fish growth. The [Hg] liver/[Hg] muscles ratio >1, which indicates that the S. testudineus from both study areas are experiencing an increase in Hg bioavailability. Possible climate-induced shifts in these aquatic systems processes are inducing a greater mobilization of bioavailable Hg, which could allow an acceleration of the biogeochemical transformation of Hg.

Correction to: Potential future climate-induced shifts in marine fish larvae and harvested fish communities in the subtropical southwestern Atlantic Ocean

The online version of the original article can be found at https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03156-3