Climate In South-eastern Australia Research Articles

High-severity wildfires in temperate Australian forests have increased in extent and aggregation in recent decades.

Wildfires have increased in size and frequency in recent decades in many biomes, but have they also become more severe? This question remains under-examined despite fire severity being a critical aspect of fire regimes that indicates fire impacts on ecosystem attributes and associated post-fire recovery. We conducted a retrospective analysis of wildfires larger than 1000 ha in south-eastern Australia to examine the extent and spatial pattern of high-severity burned areas between 1987 and 2017. High-severity maps were generated from Landsat remote sensing imagery. Total and proportional high-severity burned area increased through time. The number of high-severity patches per year remained unchanged but variability in patch size increased, and patches became more aggregated and more irregular in shape. Our results confirm that wildfires in southern Australia have become more severe. This shift in fire regime may have critical consequences for ecosystem dynamics, as fire-adapted temperate forests are more likely to be burned at high severities relative to historical ranges, a trend that seems set to continue under projections of a hotter, drier climate in south-eastern Australia.

Changing patterns of pasture production in south-eastern Australia from 1960 to 2015

The seasonal pattern of pasture production and its variability from year to year are important for pasture-based livestock production systems in south-eastern Australia because they influence key strategic decisions such as stocking rate and timing of the reproductive cycle. In this study, the effects of observed climate variations over the period 1960–2015 on pasture growth patterns were investigated by using a biophysical modelling approach. Pasture growth rates were simulated using DairyMod biophysical software at five sites ranging from high-rainfall, cool temperate at Elliott in Tasmania to medium-rainfall, warm temperate at Wagga Wagga in southern New South Wales. Annual pasture yields showed a small increasing rate of 50 kg DM/ha.year at Elliott and 40 kg DM/ha.year at Ellinbank (P < 0.05), whereas other sites showed no significant trend over time. A cross-site analysis of seasonal average pasture growth rates predicted under four different discrete periods of 14 years each showed that winter growth has increased steadily through time (P = 0.001), and spring pasture growth rate has decreased (P < 0.001) in 2002–15 compared with the earlier periods. Year-to-year pasture yield variability (coefficient of variation) during autumn and spring seasons has also increased (P < 0.05) across sites in the period 2002–15 compared with 1998–2001. At each site, the number of spring days with water stress (growth limiting factor_water <0.7) was ~10 times greater than the number of days with temperature stress (growth limiting factor_temperature <0.7). There was an increase in the number of days with water stress at Wagga Wagga, and increased heat stress at Wagga Wagga and Hamilton (P < 0.05) in the most recent period. These results highlight the importance of incorporating more heat-tolerant and deep-rooting cultivars into pasture-based production system. Although previous studies of climate-change impact have predicted increasing winter growth rates and a contraction of the spring growing season in the future (2030), this study provides clear evidence that these changes are already occurring under the observed climate in south-eastern Australia.

Designing wheat ideotypes to cope with future changing climate in South-Eastern Australia

Global food demand is increasing with the rapid growth of the world's population and improvement in living standards. To meet this demand, crop yields need to increase but climate change presents a potential threat. Genetic and agronomic strategies are helping agriculture adapt to climate change, but introducing new genetic traits into crops is time-consuming and costly. Process-based biophysical modelling is a powerful tool for targeting and accelerating development of new synthetic cultivars, and we have used it to identify the traits of rain-fed wheat ideotypes and suitable sowing dates needed to adapt to future climate change in south-eastern Australia. Our simulations involved two Global Climate Models (GCMs) with the driest conditions under a high emission scenario of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We compared simulated yields under future climate with those under historical climate with and without changes in cultivar and sowing date. Our results show that wheat yield for the reference cultivar would decrease on average by 23% and 38% in 2061–2100 under RCP8.5 at two contrasting sites (wet and dry, respectively). Ideotypes with an early flowering date, longer grain filling period, larger radiation use efficiency, larger maximum grain size and faster potential grain filling rate, sown on the optimum sowing date proved to be effective at the wet site in reversing these declines, leading to an average yield increase of 20–24% for both GCMs. However, improving cultivars and altering sowing times would have little impact for a drier GCM at the dry site. Although there is some uncertainty in simulations related to the genetic coefficients used in the crop model, climate projections and emission scenarios, we demonstrate that it is possible to enhance wheat production under a future climate if a cultivar with a longer grain filling period and larger yield component parameter was adopted in eastern Australian wheat-growing areas.

Age and rate of weathering determined using uranium-series isotopes: Testing various approaches

Abstract The development of weathering profiles shapes Earth’s surface and regulates its climate via chemical weathering. Hence, it is essential to be able to determine the age of weathering profiles and quantify how fast they form. Uranium-series isotopes allow for such quantification. However, isotope compositions are generally measured in bulk regolith, which represents a complex mixture of mineral and organic phases of different origins that can impact the reliability of the information derived from U-series isotopes. Thus, in this study, we assess whether sequential extraction and mineral separation could provide more reliable estimates of weathering ages and rates. We focus on a granitic profile developed under temperate climate in southeastern Australia, a tectonically quiescent environment. Regolith production rates have been independently estimated in the region using cosmogenic isotopes. As expected, the mineralogy and geochemistry of the bulk regolith show that biotite and feldspar are the main phases lost during weathering, progressively replaced by clay minerals. There is no evidence for significant input of element from external sources, such as via aerosol deposition. While sequential extraction does not seem to affect major mineral phases and element concentrations, it is suspected of producing artificial radioactive disequilibrium. Biotite separates show very large accumulation of U and Th, which increases with decreasing depth. Regolith production rates and mineral dissolution rates calculated with weathering rates estimated using the bulk saprolite and quartz separate compositions yield values comparable to independent estimates. Conversely, weathering ages derived from the compositions of saprolite leached experimentally or biotite separates underestimate regolith production rates and mineral dissolution rates. Thus, sequential extraction or biotite separation are not recommended methods to derive reliable rates of regolith production and mineral dissolution. Despite the potential complexity of the composition of bulk regolith, the use of regolith without any pre-treatment seems to yield satisfying estimates of regolith production and mineral dissolution rates. The composition of quartz separates yields rates similar to those derived from bulk compositions. This provides an alternative method, potentially allowing reliable results to be obtained from a single mineral phase rather than a complex mixture of weathering products.

Environmental effects on germination phenology of co-occurring eucalypts: implications for regeneration under climate change.

Germination is considered one of the important phenological stages that are influenced by environmental factors, with timing and abundance determining plant establishment and recruitment. This study investigates the influence of temperature, soil moisture and light on the germination phenology of six Eucalyptus species from two co-occurring groups of three species representing warm-dry and cool-moist sclerophyll forests. Data from germination experiments were used to calibrate the germination module of the mechanistic model TACA-GEM, to evaluate germination phenology under a range of climate change scenarios. With the exception of E. polyanthemos, the optimal niche for all species was characterised by cool-moist stratification, low light, cool temperatures and high soil moisture. Model results indicated that of the warm-dry species, Eucalyptus microcarpa exhibited greater germination and establishment under projected changes of warmer drier conditions than its co-occurring species Eucalyptus polyanthemos and Eucalyptus tricarpa which suggests that E. microcarpa could maintain its current distribution under a warmer and drier climate in southeastern Australia. Among the cool-moist species, Eucalyptus radiata was the only species that established under projected climate change of the 2080s but at such a low probability that its persistence compared to Eucalyptus obliqua and Eucalyptus sieberi cannot be posited. For all cool-moist species, germination did not benefit from the phenological shifts they displayed. This study successfully demonstrated environmental effects on germination phenology and how a shift in climate can influence the timing and success of recruitment.

Southeastern Australian climate variability 1860–2009: a multivariate analysis

AbstractHistorical datasets of instrumental temperature, rainfall and atmospheric pressure observations have recently been developed for southeastern Australia (SEA), extending the regional climate record back to 1860. In this study we use the newly extended datasets to conduct the first multivariate examination of SEA climatic changes from 1860 to 2009.The climate in SEA is highly variable in response to fluctuations in large‐scale circulation features including El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). To examine how teleconnection patterns in the SEA region have changed over time, we then applied a path analysis over the 1871–2009 period to isolate the independent relationships between SEA climate variables, ENSO and the IOD. The extended data revealed several relatively unknown periods of 19th century SEA climate variations. Cool and wet conditions were identified in the early parts of the 1860s, 1870s and 1890s, while dry conditions were found in the late 1870s, 1880–1885, and during the well‐known Federation Drought (1895–1902).Path analysis identified a decrease in the influence of ENSO on SEA rainfall during 1920–1959, particularly in the austral winter. Increasing correlations between the IOD and annual SEA rainfall and pressure were found in the recent 1970–2009 period, but appear to be within the range of natural variability in the context of the last 140 years. Despite large changes in the correlations between SEA rainfall, ENSO and the IOD, correlations between SEA rainfall and temperature remained stable over 1871–2009. Similar results were obtained using 20th Century Reanalysis data for 1871–2009, supporting the quality of the extended historical datasets and providing verification for the reanalysis data in SEA from the late 19th century.

Southeast Australia Autumn Rainfall Reduction: A Climate-Change-Induced Poleward Shift of Ocean–Atmosphere Circulation

Abstract Since the 1950s annual rainfall over southeastern Australia (SEA) has decreased considerably with a maximum decline in the austral autumn season (March–May), particularly from 1980 onward. The understanding of SEA autumn rainfall variability, the causes, and associated mechanisms for the autumn reduction remain elusive. As such, a new plausible mechanism for SEA autumn rainfall variability is described, and the dynamics for the reduction are hypothesized. First, there is no recent coherence between SEA autumn rainfall and the southern annular mode, discounting it as a possible driver of the autumn rainfall reduction. Second, weak trends in the subtropical ridge intensity cannot explain the recent autumn rainfall reduction across SEA, even though a significant relationship exists between the ridge and rainfall in April and May. With a collapse in the relationship between the autumn subtropical ridge intensity and position in recent decades, a strengthening in the influence of the postmonsoonal winds from north of Australia has emerged, as evident by a strong post-1980 coherence with SEA mean sea level pressure and rainfall. From mid to late autumn, there has been a replacement of a relative wet climate in SEA with a drier climate from northern latitudes, representing a climate shift that has contributed to the rainfall reduction. The maximum baroclinicity, as indicated by Eady growth rates, has shifted poleward. An associated poleward shift of the dominant process controlling SEA autumn rainfall has further enhanced the reduction, particularly across southern SEA. This observed change over the past few decades is consistent with a poleward shift of the ocean and atmosphere circulation.

‘Haying-off' in wheat is predicted to increase under a future climate in south-eastern Australia

Under a future climate for south-eastern Australia there is the likelihood that the net effect of elevated CO2, (eCO2) lower growing-season rainfall and high temperature will increase haying-off thus limit production of rain-fed wheat crops. We used a modelling approach to assess the impact of an expected future climate on wheat growth across four cropping regions in Victoria. A wheat model, APSIM-Nwheat, was performance tested against three datasets: (i) a field experiment at Wagga Wagga, NSW; (ii) the Australian Grains Free Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment (AGFACE) experiment at Horsham, Victoria; and (iii) a broad-acre wheat crop survey in western Victoria. For down-scaled climate predictions for 2050, average rainfall during October, which coincides with crop flowering, decreased by 32, 29, 26, and 18% for the semiarid regions of the northern Mallee, the southern Mallee, Wimmera, and higher rainfall zone, (HRZ) in the Western District, respectively. Mean annual minimum and maximum temperature over the four regions increased by 1.9 and 2.2°C, respectively. A pair-wise comparison of the yield/anthesis biomass ratio across climate scenarios, used for assessing haying-off response, revealed that there was a 39, 49 and 47% increase in frequency of haying-off for the northern Mallee, southern Mallee and Wimmera, respectively, when crops were sown near the historically optimal time (1 June). This translated to a reduction in yield from 1.6 to 1.4 t/ha (northern Mallee), 2.5 to 2.2 t/ha (southern Mallee) and 3.7 to 3.6 t/ha (Wimmera) under a future climate. Sowing earlier (1 May) reduced the impact of a future climate on haying-off where decreases in yield/anthesis biomass ratio were 24, 28 and 23% for the respective regions. Heavy textured soils exacerbated the impact of a future climate on haying-off within the Wimmera. Within the HRZ of the Western District crops were not water limited during grain filling, so no evidence of haying-off existed where average crop yields increased by 5% under a future climate (6.4–6.7 t/ha). The simulated effect of eCO2 alone (FACE conditions) increased average yields from 18 to 38% for the semiarid regions but not in the HRZ and there was no evidence of haying-off. For a future climate, sowing earlier limited the impact of hotter, drier conditions by reducing pre-anthesis plant growth, grain set and resource depletion and shifted the grain-filling phase earlier, which reduced the impact of future drier conditions in spring. Overall, earlier sowing in a Mediterranean-type environment appears to be an important management strategy for maintaining wheat production in semiarid cropping regions into the future, although this has to be balanced with other agronomic considerations such as frost risk and weed control.

Quantitative reconstruction of Early Pleistocene climate in southeastern Australia and implications for atmospheric circulation

Today, southeastern Australia experiences a winter-dominated rainfall regime, governed by the seasonal migration of the highly zonal Southern Hemisphere subtropical anticyclone. The late Cenozoic history of this rainfall regime is poorly understood, but it has been widely accepted that its onset was a product of the intensification and northward migration of the subtropical anticyclone, driven by steepening of hemispheric temperature gradients associated with the initiation of extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation, ∼2.6 million years ago (Ma). Here, we use fossil beetle remains from Stony Creek Basin, a small palaeolake record in upland southeastern Australia deposited over ∼280,000 years between ∼1.84 and 1.56 Ma, to quantitatively reconstruct regional climate during the Early Pleistocene. Climate reconstructions based on coexistence of extant beetle taxa indicate that temperatures were consistently 1–3 °C warmer than present, and rainfall as high as or substantially higher than today, throughout the record. In particular, beetle data indicate that rainfall was similar to today during winter, but 2–2.4 times higher than today during summer. This is consistent with the presence of diverse rainforest pollen also present in the record, and indicates that the modern, winter-dominated rainfall regime was not yet in place by ∼1.5 Ma, at least one million years later than previously thought. We suggest that the Southern Hemisphere anticyclonic circulation must have been much less intense during the Early Pleistocene than today, rather than shifted meridionally as previously argued.

Geochemical mass-balance and oxygen-isotope constraints on silcrete formation and its paleoclimatic implications in southern Australia

ABSTRACT Two geographically distinct silcrete associations are present in southern Australia, inland and eastern; these were sampled in central South Australia and central Victoria, respectively. At each site, both silicified and immediately adjacent unsilicified parent material were collected. Analytical data from these pairs were used to construct isocons, assuming Zr immobility, and to calculate the volume change and amount of silica introduced during silicification. These results, together with whole-rock oxygen-isotope compositions, were used to determine the 18O of the introduced silica. The results show that the eastern silcretes in central Victoria are probably linked genetically to the associated basalts, weathering of which supplied the introduced silica. This conclusion is based on the close spatial connection between the two, as well as the substantial amount of introduced silica in the silcretes (greater than in the inland silcretes), resulting in volume increases in some eastern silcretes. Oxygen isotopic calculations for the silcretes indicate that the silica precipitated from groundwaters at temperatures slightly higher than present conditions. Silcrete formation apparently occurred during the Miocene and Pliocene (basalts in Victoria younger than Pliocene lack associated silcrete) and may reflect the much wetter climate in southeastern Australia at that time. The inland silcretes of central South Australia can be divided into pedogenic (the most common) and groundwater varieties. The pedogenic silcretes, which show typical soil features like columnar and nodular textures, contain moderate amounts of introduced silica that precipitated by evaporation from saline groundwaters. For the groundwater silcretes, which have massive textures and formed at or close to the water table, insufficient data are available to determine the mode of formation. The inland pedogenic silcretes have probably been forming from the Eocene-Miocene to the present, implying that conditions of seasonally high evaporation have occurred in central Australia during this time period. Thus silcrete formation depends on a complex interplay between climate and silica supply, and it is impossible to generalize that the presence of silcrete is indicative of a particular climate. Likewise, the elemental composition of silcretes, particularly Ti content, is not necessarily of climatic significance. Nevertheless, detailed geochemical and oxygen isotopic studies of a silcrete and its parent material can elucidate the mechanisms of silcrete formation, and if evaporation is indicated as a major factor in silcrete formation, then the climate at the time was likely to have been at least seasonally arid.

Australian vegetation during the Tertiary: Macrofossil evidence

The Australian Tertiary plant macrofossil record, although very incomplete, offers a unique insight into past vegetation composition and dynamics, and the effect of changing climate both on vegetation composition and plant evolution. During the Early Tertiary, southeastern Australia supported complex rainforests with a very high diversity of woody plant species. The prevailing climate included a moderate mean annual temperature and, more importantly, very little temperature variability away from the mean. As well as this, rain fall was high throughout the year, and humidity was also very high. There is no extant analogue either for this climate or for the vegetation it supported. As the climate cooled and temperature extremes developed, and rainfall declined and became more seasonal, rainforests in southeastern Australia declined in species numbers. Many taxa became extinct or migrated (or were restricted in range) northwards into the mid-high elevation equatorial rainforests where they, or their descendants, still occur. Some rainforest taxa evolved in response to the changing climate in southeastern Australia, although many of these were ultimately unsuccessful and became extinct in the region. As the climate further deteriorated, non-rainforest vegetation expanded in the drier and colder areas, although many of the taxa present in these expanding ecosystems may have had their origin in nutrient-poor rainforests.

Tertiary climate and phytogeography in southeastern Australia

Palynofloras of late Eocene to Pliocene-Pleistocene age have been used to reconstruct vegetation and climate in southeastern Australia. The vegetation was forest, becoming open only in the late Pliocene-early Pleistocene. Precipitation was the highest in the late Eocene-early Oligocene, decreasing in the late Oligocene-early Miocene and mid Miocene, with a brief increase in the late Miocene-early Pliocene and subsequent further decreases. Patterns of change show a retreat of rainforest taxa from a formerly widespread distribution to their present restricted habitats, e.g. the Huon Pine (pollen type Phyllocladidites mawsonii) to Tasmania and the Araucariaceae to the northern part of the east coast. Other taxa may be abundant, under certain ecological conditions, e.g. Nothofagus flemingii on well drained soils and Casuarinaceae in marginal marine regions. The Miocene was a time of great change and maximum variation, when widespread rainforest disappeared from inland regions and burning on a regular basis became an integral part of the environment. Throughout the time period under review, there was a climatic gradient parallel to that of today.