Climate-driven Loss Research Articles

How does carbon trading price matter for bank loans? Evidence from Chinese banking sector

This paper investigates the impact of carbon trading prices on Chinese commercial banks. We propose a stress test model to calculate the decline of firms’ liabilities and the climate-driven loss of commercial banks to different industries. The results indicate that State-Owned Banks suffer the highest climate-driven loss among all types of banks. City commercial banks suffer the highest climate-driven loss ratio since they maintain a relatively low level of Tier 1 core capital. Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang maintain the highest levels of climate-driven loss ratio. Furthermore, the allocation of loans portfolio across different industries also influences climate-driven loss of banks. The climate-driven loss to the electric power, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector is the largest in all industries. It is necessary for banks to incorporate climate factors into the risk assessment framework.

Values must be at the heart of responding to loss and damage

As climate change worsens, loss and damage will rapidly accelerate, causing tremendous suffering worldwide. Conceptualising loss and damage based on what people value in their everyday lives and what they consider worth preserving in the face of risk needs to be at the centre of policy and funding. This study in three Pacific Island countries utilises a local, values-based approach to explore people’s experiences of climate change, including intolerable impacts, to inform locally meaningful priorities for funding, resources, and action. What people value determines what is considered intolerable, tolerable, and acceptable in terms of climate-driven loss and damage, and this can inform which responses should be prioritised and where resources should be allocated to preserve the things that are most important to people. Given people’s different value sets and experiences of climate change across places and contexts, intolerable impacts, and responses to address them are place-dependent. We call on policy makers to ensure that understandings of, and responses to, loss and damage are locally identified and led.

Climate-driven loss of taxonomic and functional richness in Brazilian Atlantic Forest anurans

Climate change is one of the key drivers of the dramatic erosion of global biodiversity. Poikilothermic organisms, such as amphibians, are particularly prone to alterations in temperature and precipitation and are therefore expected to be severely impacted by global climate change. We evaluated: i) the potential effects of climate change on taxonomic and functional richness of amphibians in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil, and ii) tested whether forest-dependent and open area species responded differently to climatic stressors. We applied an ensemble forecasting approach using point locality data to establish predictive maps of taxonomic and functional richness for different IPCC AR5 scenarios with two Representative Concentration Pathway trajectories (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) at two temporal projections (2050 and 2070). A significant decline in both taxonomic and functional richness of Atlantic Forest amphibians is expected over the coming decades under the evaluated climate scenarios. The core areas projected to maintain significantly high anuran richness in both components were in coastal high-altitude localities. We found negative effects (losses) to be more pronounced for taxonomic richness. Model outcomes indicate significant losses in both forest and open area species. A few remaining high-altitude sites will then play an important role as potential climatic refuges to safeguard anuran diversity, requiring a dynamic landscape approach as conservation strategy.

Seagrass meadows as ocean acidification refugia for sea urchin larvae

Foundation species have been widely documented to provide suitable habitats for other species by ameliorating stressful environmental conditions. Nonetheless, their role in rescuing stress-sensitive species from adverse conditions due to climate change remains often unexplored. Here, we performed a mesocosm experiment to assess whether the seagrass, Posidonia oceanica, through its photosynthetic activity, could mitigate the negative effects of ocean acidification on larval development and growth of the calcifying sea urchin, Paracentrotus lividus. Sea urchin larvae at early and late developmental stages that are generally associated to benthic habitats, were grown in aquaria with or without P. oceanica plants, under ambient or low pH conditions predicted by the end of the century under the worst climate scenario (RCP8.5). The percentage of abnormal larvae and their total body length under different experimental conditions were assessed on early- (i.e., pluteus; 72 h post-fertilization) and final-developmental stages (i.e., echinopluteus; 30 days post-fertilization), respectively. The presence of P. oceanica increased mean daily pH values of ∼0.1 and ∼0.15 units at ambient and low pH conditions, respectively, compared with tanks without plants. When grown at low pH in association with P. oceanica, plutei showed a ∼23 % reduction of malformations and echinoplutei a ∼34 % increase in total body length, respectively, compared with larvae developing in tanks without plants. Our results suggest that P. oceanica, by increasing pH and altering seawater carbonate chemistry through its metabolic activity, could buffer the negative effects of ocean acidification on calcifying organisms and could, thus, represent a tool against climate-driven loss of biodiversity.

Whole-genome Analyses Reveal Past Population Fluctuations and Low Genetic Diversities of the North Pacific Albatrosses.

Throughout the Plio-Pleistocene, climate change has impacted tropical marine ecosystems substantially, with even more severe impacts predicted in the Anthropocene. Although many studies have clarified demographic histories of seabirds in polar regions, the history of keystone seabirds of the tropics is unclear, despite the prominence of albatrosses (Diomedeidae, Procellariiformes) as the largest and most threatened group of oceanic seabirds. To understand the impact of climate change on tropical albatrosses, we investigated the evolutionary and demographic histories of all four North Pacific albatrosses and their prey using whole-genome analyses. We report a striking concordance in demographic histories among the four species, with a notable dip in effective population size at the beginning of the Pleistocene and a population expansion in the Last Glacial Period when sea levels were low, which resulted in increased potential coastal breeding sites. Abundance of the black-footed albatross dropped again during the Last Glacial Maximum, potentially linked to climate-driven loss of breeding sites and concordant genome-derived decreases in its major prey. We find very low genome-wide (π < 0.001) and adaptative genetic diversities across the albatrosses, with genes of the major histocompatibility complex close to monomorphic. We also identify recent selective sweeps at genes associated with hyperosmotic adaptation, longevity, and cognition and memory. Our study has shed light on the evolutionary and demographic histories of the largest tropical oceanic seabirds and provides evidence for their large population fluctuations and alarmingly low genetic diversities.

Stacked distribution models predict climate-driven loss of variation in leaf phenology at continental scales

Climate change is having profound effects on species distributions and is likely altering the distribution of genetic variation across landscapes. Maintaining population genetic diversity is essential for the survival of species facing rapid environmental change, and variation loss will further ecological and evolutionary change. We used trait values of spring foliar leaf-out phenology of 400 genotypes from three geographically isolated populations of Populus angustifolia grown under common conditions, in concert with stacked species distribution modeling, to ask: (a) How will climate change alter phenological variation across the P. angustifolia species-range, and within populations; and (b) will the distribution of phenological variation among and within populations converge (become more similar) in future climatic conditions? Models predicted a net loss of phenological variation in future climate scenarios on 20-25% of the landscape across the species’ range, with the trailing edge population losing variation on as much as 47% of the landscape. Our models also predicted that population’s phenological trait distributions will become more similar over time. This stacked distribution model approach allows for the identification of areas expected to experience the greatest loss of genetically based functional trait variation and areas that may be priorities to conserve as future genetic climate refugia.

ERRATUM to “climate-driven losses to Indigenous and local knowledge and cultural heritage”

ERRATUM to “climate-driven losses to Indigenous and local knowledge and cultural heritage”

Climate-driven losses to knowledge systems and cultural heritage: A literature review exploring the impacts on Indigenous and local cultures

Anthropogenic climate change is leading to widespread losses around the world. While the focus of research over the last decade has largely been on economic or tangible losses, researchers have begun to shift their focus to understanding the non-economic or intangible dimensions of loss more deeply. Loss of life, biodiversity and social cohesion are some of the losses that are beginning to be explored, along with Indigenous and local knowledge (ILK) and cultural heritage. These latter two form the basis of this systematic review of 100 studies to take stock of what we know about climate-driven losses to ILK and cultural heritage, how such losses manifest and how they are overcome, revealing gaps in our knowledge and carving a path for future research.

Synergistic interactions among growing stressors increase risk to an Arctic ecosystem

Oceans provide critical ecosystem services, but are subject to a growing number of external pressures, including overfishing, pollution, habitat destruction, and climate change. Current models typically treat stressors on species and ecosystems independently, though in reality, stressors often interact in ways that are not well understood. Here, we use a network interaction model (OSIRIS) to explicitly study stressor interactions in the Chukchi Sea (Arctic Ocean) due to its extensive climate-driven loss of sea ice and accelerated growth of other stressors, including shipping and oil exploration. The model includes numerous trophic levels ranging from phytoplankton to polar bears. We find that climate-related stressors have a larger impact on animal populations than do acute stressors like increased shipping and subsistence harvesting. In particular, organisms with a strong temperature-growth rate relationship show the greatest changes in biomass as interaction strength increased, but also exhibit the greatest variability. Neglecting interactions between stressors vastly underestimates the risk of population crashes. Our results indicate that models must account for stressor interactions to enable responsible management and decision-making.

Climate impacts on hydropower in Colombia: A multi-model assessment of power sector adaptation pathways

Climate change is likely to affect water availability and therefore hydropower generation in many regions of the world. In drying regions, hydropower generation may be impaired, creating a need for new power investments that would otherwise have been unnecessary. In this study we apply two partial equilibrium models (GCAM and TIAM-ECN) and two general equilibrium models (MEG4C and Phoenix) to identify possible pathways of power sector adaptation for Colombia under climate change. We adopt two GCM projections that deteriorate hydropower generation over the next three decades, and simulate each for two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5). Relative to Colombia's projected power demand growth over the coming decades, losses in hydropower generation are marginal. Nonetheless, climate-driven losses in hydropower must be compensated by alternative technologies´expansion, which vary significantly across models. When climate policy is implemented (RCP4.5), three distinct expansion pathways emerge: increased solar and wind energy (TIAM-ECN); significant power demand reductions (Phoenix and MEG4C); and increased fossil resources with carbon dioxide capture and storage (GCAM). We show the need to explore the tradeoffs/synergies among alternative expansion pathways and their potential impacts on other sectors (e.g. water and land), and for effective policies to incentivize their adoption in Colombia.

Harnessing positive species interactions as a tool against climate-driven loss of coastal biodiversity.

Habitat-forming species sustain biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in harsh environments through the amelioration of physical stress. Nonetheless, their role in shaping patterns of species distribution under future climate scenarios is generally overlooked. Focusing on coastal systems, we assess how habitat-forming species can influence the ability of stress-sensitive species to exhibit plastic responses, adapt to novel environmental conditions, or track suitable climates. Here, we argue that habitat-former populations could be managed as a nature-based solution against climate-driven loss of biodiversity. Drawing from different ecological and biological disciplines, we identify a series of actions to sustain the resilience of marine habitat-forming species to climate change, as well as their effectiveness and reliability in rescuing stress-sensitive species from increasingly adverse environmental conditions.

Globally rising soil heterotrophic respiration over recent decades.

Global soils store at least twice as much carbon as Earth's atmosphere1,2. The global soil-to-atmosphere (or total soil respiration, RS) carbon dioxide (CO2) flux is increasing3,4, but the degree to which climate change will stimulate carbon losses from soils as a result of heterotrophic respiration (RH) remains highly uncertain5-8. Here we use an updated global soil respiration database9 to show that the observed soil surface RH:RS ratio increased significantly, from 0.54 to 0.63, between 1990 and 2014 (P = 0.009). Three additional lines of evidence provide support for this finding. By analysing two separate global gross primary production datasets10,11, we find that the ratios of both RH and RS to gross primary production have increased over time. Similarly, significant increases in RH are observed against the longest available solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence global dataset, as well as gross primary production computed by an ensemble of global land models. We also show that the ratio of night-time net ecosystem exchange to gross primary production is rising across the FLUXNET201512 dataset. All trends are robust to sampling variability in ecosystem type, disturbance, methodology, CO2 fertilization effects and mean climate. Taken together, our findings provide observational evidence that global RH is rising, probably in response to environmental changes, consistent with meta-analyses13-16 and long-term experiments17. This suggests that climate-driven losses of soil carbon are currently occurring across many ecosystems, with a detectable and sustained trend emerging at the global scale.

Integrating mechanistic and empirical model projections to assess climate impacts on tree species distributions in northwestern North America.

Empirical and mechanistic models have both been used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on species distributions, and each modeling approach has its strengths and weaknesses. Here, we demonstrate an approach to projecting climate-driven changes in species distributions that draws on both empirical and mechanistic models. We combined projections from a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) that simulates the distributions of biomes based on basic plant functional types with projections from empirical climatic niche models for six tree species in northwestern North America. These integrated model outputs incorporate important biological processes, such as competition, physiological responses of plants to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and fire, as well as what are likely to be species-specific climatic constraints. We compared the integrated projections to projections from the empirical climatic niche models alone. Overall, our integrated model outputs projected a greater climate-driven loss of potentially suitable environmental space than did the empirical climatic niche model outputs alone for the majority of modeled species. Our results also show that refining species distributions with DGVM outputs had large effects on the geographic locations of suitable habitat. We demonstrate one approach to integrating the outputs of mechanistic and empirical niche models to produce bioclimatic projections. But perhaps more importantly, our study reveals the potential for empirical climatic niche models to over-predict suitable environmental space under future climatic conditions.

Tropical nighttime warming as a dominant driver of variability in the terrestrial carbon sink

The terrestrial biosphere is currently a strong carbon (C) sink but may switch to a source in the 21st century as climate-driven losses exceed CO2-driven C gains, thereby accelerating global warming. Although it has long been recognized that tropical climate plays a critical role in regulating interannual climate variability, the causal link between changes in temperature and precipitation and terrestrial processes remains uncertain. Here, we combine atmospheric mass balance, remote sensing-modeled datasets of vegetation C uptake, and climate datasets to characterize the temporal variability of the terrestrial C sink and determine the dominant climate drivers of this variability. We show that the interannual variability of global land C sink has grown by 50-100% over the past 50 y. We further find that interannual land C sink variability is most strongly linked to tropical nighttime warming, likely through respiration. This apparent sensitivity of respiration to nighttime temperatures, which are projected to increase faster than global average temperatures, suggests that C stored in tropical forests may be vulnerable to future warming.