Climate Change Perspective Research Articles

Sensitivity analysis of the typhoon disturbance effect on forest dynamics and carbon balance in the future in a cool-temperate forest in northern Japan by using SEIB-DGVM

Large storms are a major source of natural disturbance in forest ecosystems in coastal regions of the world. With the changing climate, some climate projection models predict that storms will become stronger in the future, especially in the Northwest Pacific. Although the destruction of typhoons has a strong impact on the structure and carbon balance of forest ecosystems, leading to local climate change feedback, the long-term effect of typhoon frequency and intensity on forest and carbon dynamics has not been investigated from the perspective of future climate change. To elucidate these long-term effects, we adapted a dynamic vegetation model to a deciduous-coniferous mixed forest in southern Hokkaido, Japan, to represent the development of a larch plantation established in 1954 after typhoon Toyamaru struck a natural forest and the natural regeneration from 2004 when the plantation suffered windthrow by typhoon Songda. The model was validated using eddy flux and biomass data. The adapted model was then forced with various combinations of typhoon frequency, typhoon intensity, and projected climatic conditions for 2017–2100 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. These future projections suggest that increasing typhoon frequency and intensity has a significant effect on forest and carbon dynamics under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. As the frequency and intensity of typhoons increase, aboveground biomass (AGB) and net primary production (NPP) decrease. However, increasing typhoon frequency and intensity had a greater influence on AGB than NPP. The values of AGB and NPP are much higher under RCP8.5 than under RCP2.6 and at baseline. As the frequency and intensity of typhoons increase, net ecosystem production first increases and then decreases. Our projection indicates that the forest at the Tomakomai site will become a carbon sink under different typhoon scenarios at the end of the 21st century. Our result also predicts that if typhoon frequency is ≤2 (i.e., a typhoon occurs up to two times between 2017 and 2100) and intensity is ≤40% (i.e., up to 40% of trees damaged), then forest AGB can recover to that before typhoon Songda by the end of the 21st century. Simulation results also showed strong linear relationships among forest structural traits (AGB, tree height, tree density, and woody plant and grass leaf area indexes), carbon fluxes, and typhoon frequency and intensity.

Impacts of Anthropogenic Perturbations on Reactive Nitrogen Dynamics in Mangrove Ecosystem: Climate Change Perspective

This review paper deals with the most pressing problems of increasing anthropogenically induced reactive nitrogen (Nr) and investigates how they severely altered the global nitrogen cycle and its enhanced effect on climate change. Global scale assess

Statistical methodology for on-site wind resource and power potential assessment under current and future climate conditions: a case study of Suriname

The feasibility and long term sustainability of proposed projects for wind energy production strongly depend on the availability of wind resources. This availability is assessed by means of local wind speed statistics. Under climate change, the future (long term) wind resource availability is, however, highly uncertain. This research proposes a methodology for on-site wind resource assessment in future (climate change) perspective based on stochastic modeling, observed data and the latest generation of climate model results for future projections. Statistical downscaling and bias correction methods, i.e., the Quantile Perturbation Method and Quantile Matching, are applied to enable local scale assessments. It requires observed data for extended periods to facilitate climate change signal assessments and associated future projections. Two types of data sets are considered for observed data, i.e., on-site (local) measurements and reanalysis data. Two stochastic modeling approaches were adopted for the local observations data extension, i.e., a Markov and Weibull model, allowing for a sensitivity assessment. The methodology has been applied to a potential wind site in Suriname. Results reveal significant changes in wind power potential for the end of the century (2070–2100), ranging from − 27 to 89%. Analysis of the extreme conditions reveals an extended range, from − 65 to 282%.

Sensitivity of SPI to Distribution Functions and Correlation Between its Values at Different Time Scales in Central Africa

This paper studies sensitivity of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to statistical distribution functions used in SPI computation procedure, in order to find out which are more appropriate and to assess SPI shift if using inappropriate distribution functions. Results may explain one of the reasons why spatial SPI computed with unique distribution function as usually, sometimes does not give better drought description. Central Africa is chosen as the study area because of its importance in climate change perspective and the necessity to use improved tools for drought quantification in this region. Monthly precipitation data for the period 1951–2016, both from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) were used. They were first aggregated at various time scales and four statistical distribution functions (gamma, weibull, exponential and lognormal) were tested to select the best-fit. Next, SPI was calculated for various time scales using the best fit function at each grid point and results were compared to those computed assuming a same distribution function at all grid points. Results show that, from 1- to 9-month time scales, observed spatial patterns of distribution functions were more homogeneous and the weibull function had the highest extended spatial rate, followed successively by gamma, lognormal and exponential. From 12-month time scale, spatial patterns were inhomogeneous, and no gridded precipitation followed the exponential function. The study of cross-correlations showed significant resemblance between SPIs at different time scales, leading to reduce the studies from 1- to 15-month. SPI values were affected if inappropriate distribution functions were used and the shift increases in correlation with the increase of time scale. The two datasets CRU and GPCC showed similar results, but GPCC’s SPIs were wetter and distribution functions somewhat more dispersed spatially from 12-month time scale. For SPI calculation in Central Africa, the weibull and gamma functions if used lead to good SPI results at short time scales (not more than 9-month) compared to SPI calculated using exponential or lognormal function. From 12-month time scale, it is recommended to choose the best fit distribution function at each grid point in order to expect good SPI results and then better drought description.

Exploring interactive effects of climate change and exotic pathogens on Quercus suber performance: Damage caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi varies across contrasting scenarios of soil moisture

Climate change and exotic pests and pathogens are causing alarming forest declines worldwide. However, we still lack a comprehensive understanding of how damage caused by exotic pests and pathogens might vary under the different scenarios of water availability imposed by a changing climate, particularly in water-limited forests as those that occupy Mediterranean areas. In this paper we aimed to experimentally analyse the interactive effects of the aggressive exotic pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi and climate change-related reductions in soil moisture on seedling performance of the Mediterranean host Quercus suber. We conducted a full-factorial greenhouse experiment where the physiology and growth of Q. suber seedlings was measured in soils with different combinations of P. cinnamomi inoculum density (0, 30, 60 and 120 colony forming units per gram of dry soil) and soil moisture (15%, 40%, 50% and 100% soil water holding capacity) simulating different invasion and climate change scenarios. We found additive effects of P. cinnamomi and drought on Q. suber performance aboveground, although these effects were not always negative. In fact, seedlings showed a compensatory physiological response to P. cinnamomi infection by increasing their net photosynthetic rates. Our results also supported important interactive effects of pathogens and soil moisture on belowground performance. Thus, the inoculum density in the soil required to cause significant root damage in experimental seedlings decreased as soil moisture increased. From a climate change perspective, these results suggest that an average drier climate might imply sub-optimal conditions for P. cinnamomi infections allowing for a slower advance of the disease in invaded areas. However, this effect will be modulated by the also predicted more frequent extreme climatic events. A higher frequency of extreme rain events that saturate the soil might be particularly beneficial for P. cinnamomi, boosting its soil density beyond any possible response capacity of susceptible hosts.

Alternatives for Financing of Municipal Investments - Green Bonds

Abstract The perspective of global climate change emerges as a significant political, economic, financial and social issue. Scientific researches show that the accumulated carbon dioxide (CO2), released by the industry and agriculture, together with the contribution of man-made greenhouse gases leads to a rise in the temperature of the earth's surface. Traditional sources of financing capital expenditure, such as own revenues and bank financing have proved to be extremely insufficient. At the same time, not only traditional municipal needs, such as costs for street, road, bridge, school construction etc., but also the need of investments related to climate change have been on the rise. The purpose of this article is to examine and analyze alternatives for financing climate change-related municipal investments. The subject of the research is green bonds and the so-called Subnational Pooled Financing Mechanisms, which have already gained popularity in Western Europe but are not yet well known in Eastern Europe. The positive aspects and opportunities that the green bond market reveals as well as the barriers to this type of financing are assessed and an analysis of the practice of bond financing in Europe is made.

Climate change going deep: The effects of global climatic alterations on cave ecosystems

Scientists of different disciplines have recognized the valuable role of terrestrial caves as ideal natural laboratories in which to study multiple eco-evolutionary processes, from genes to ecosystems. Because caves and other subterranean habitats are semi-closed systems characterized by a remarkable thermal stability, they should also represent insightful systems for understanding the effects of climate change on biodiversity in situ. Whilst a number of recent advances have demonstrated how promising this fast-moving field of research could be, a lack of synthesis is possibly holding back the adoption of caves as standard models for the study of the recent climatic alteration. By linking literature focusing on physics, geology, biology and ecology, we illustrate the rationale supporting the use of subterranean habitats as laboratories for studies of global change biology. We initially discuss the direct relationship between external and internal temperature, the stability of the subterranean climate and the dynamics of its alteration in an anthropogenic climate change perspective. Owing to their evolution in a stable environment, subterranean species are expected to exhibit low tolerance to climatic perturbations and could theoretically cope with such changes only by shifting their distributional range or by adapting to the new environmental conditions. However, they should have more obstacles to overcome than surface species in such shifts, and therefore could be more prone to local extinction. In the face of rapid climate change, subterranean habitats can be seen as refugia for some surface species, but at the same time they may turn into dead-end traps for some of their current obligate inhabitants. Together with other species living in confined habitats, we argue that subterranean species are particularly sensitive to climate change, and we stress the urgent need for future research, monitoring programs and conservation measures.

Does climate change influence people\u2019s migration decisions in Maldives?

The influence of climate change and perceptions of it on people’s migration decisions has received significant prominence, especially for people living on low-lying islands. To contribute to this literature, this paper uses Maldives as a case study for exploring the research question: How does climate change influence or not influence people’s migration decisions in Maldives? Previous work tends to start from a disciplinary climate change perspective, while this study combines migration, mobility, and island studies perspectives, within which climate change sits. As well, rather than focusing on the area around the capital, Malé, as with many previous studies, the 113 interviews here were conducted in eight islands across three atolls. The method was qualitative, semi-structured, face-to-face interviews using purposive sampling of ordinary people. Contrary to a view of islanders preparing to flee their islands as “climate change refugees”, the interviewees provided nuanced and varied responses. They rarely identified the potential of future impacts due to climate change as influencing their migration-related decisions. When migration was considered, it was chiefly internal movement seeking a better standard of living via improved services, better living conditions, and more job opportunities. If migration related to potential climate change impacts might happen, then it was assumed to be in the future for decisions then. This lack of influence of climate change-related perceptions on Maldivians’ migration decisions fits well within island mobilities studies, from which climate change perspectives could adopt wider contexts.

Nutrition from a climate change perspective.

Climate change is threatening future global food and nutrition security. Limiting the increase in global temperature to 1·5 °C set out in The Paris Agreement (2015) while achieving nutrient security means overhauling the current food system to create one that can deliver healthy and sustainable diets. To attain this, it is critical to understand the implications for nutrition of actions to mitigate climate change as well as the impacts of climate change on food production and the nutrient composition of foods. It is widely recognised that livestock production has a much greater environmental burden than crop production, and therefore advice is to reduce meat consumption. This has triggered concern in some sectors about a lack of protein in diets, which hence is driving efforts to find protein replacements. However, in most high- and middle-income countries, protein intakes far exceed dietary requirements and it would even if all meat were removed from diets. Reduction in micronutrients should be given more attention when reducing meat. Simply eating less meat does not guarantee healthier or more sustainable diets. Climate change will also affect the type, amount and nutrient quality of food that can be produced. Studies have shown that increased temperature and elevated CO2 levels can reduce the nutrient density of some staple crops, which is of particular concern in low-income countries. Nutrition from a climate change perspective means considering the potential consequences of any climate action on food and nutrition security. In this paper, we discuss these issues from an interdisciplinary perspective.

Migration impact on China’s population dividing line driven by hybrid features: perspectives of climate change and wage gap

The development of China’s population distribution boundary (Hu Line) in the future will have mixed driving characteristics: (1) driven by potential agricultural production in the long term; (2) driven by the wage gap between the eastern and the western provinces in the short term. At the same time, China’s unique pattern of migrant workers has increased the complexity of the issue of population migration between the Hu Line. This paper establishes a population support model based on the Potential Agricultural Production and a multi-regional Computable general equilibrium model considering a transfer mechanism of remittance. Results show that the population proportion caused by climate change in the provinces west of the Hu Line will increase in the long term, but the stability of the Hu Line has not been broken down. In the short term, as the wage-driven migration of western labor force expands, the country’s total economy shows a growing trend, and the wage gap between regions gradually narrows with the expansion of the migration scale. When the migration rate of the western labor force is 30%, the per capita GDP gap between the eastern and western regions of the Hu Line is the minimum, and when the rate is 10%, the per capita income gap between the eastern and western regions is the smallest. Though the rural migrant workers from the western province can improve the living standards of families in the western regions, it has little impact on the national and regional economy overall.

Effect of torrefaction on thermal behavior and fuel properties of Eucalyptus grandis macro-particulates

Considered as a carbon-neutral fuel from a climate change perspective and the most common renewable resource, biomass needs an energetic conversion process to replace more conventional energy sources. Torrefaction is a thermal modification process used to improve biomass as solid fuel. In this study, macro-particles of Eucalyptus grandis were investigated under an oxidizing atmosphere (10% O2). The aim was to evaluate the effect of the temperature (230, 250, 270 and 290 °C) and heating rates (3, 5 and 7 °C min−1) on 3 × 3 × 3 cm samples by the assessment of the dynamic solid yield and its derivative curve, proximate analysis as well as energy content. The solid yield decreases with increasing temperature showing a linear relationship (R2 = 0.97) for light and mild torrefaction and more aggressive behavior for severe torrefaction (280 and 290 °C) with degradation varying from 6.7 to 34.8% and a higher heating value enhancement varying from 3.4% (230 °C) to 24.3% (290 °C). The approach followed allows a characterization of biomass samples, thermal behaviors dynamics as well as the torrefied final product showing the impact of temperature, heating rate and residence time.

Factors determining conversion of agricultural land use in Bangladesh: farmers’ perceptions and perspectives of climate change

The study was accomplished to identify the factors determining land conversion in Bangladesh and evaluate farmers’ perception about the changing land use decision. Data were collected from Mymensingh, Rajshahi and Khulna districts of Bangladesh. A total of 300 sample farmers were interviewed following purposive and random sampling technique. For analyzing data, a combination of descriptive, mathematical and statistical techniques were used. Descriptive statistics showed that average household and farm size of the farmers were 5.0 and 0.47 hectare, respectively. Percentage perception index demonstrated that most of the respondents experienced climatic changes having negative impacts on agricultural activities. Agreement index depicted that natural calamities caused stern damage to respondents’ cultivable land, assets, agricultural enterprises and basic livelihood necessities. From the result of Logit model it was found that farming experience, disaster loss, farmer’s educational level, annual income, access to credit, farmer’s age and saline water intrusion were the significant determinants of changing land use decision in the study areas. Farmers’ livelihood assets namely, human, social, financial, natural and physical capitals were improved to a noticeable extent after their land shifting decision. The study recommended that training provision, motivational programmes and extension contact should be properly implemented by the government as well as non-government organizations to aware the farmers about pros and cons of land conversion and to choose the best land use decision for livelihood improvement.

Multi-omics approaches for strategic improvement of stress tolerance in underutilized crop species: A climate change perspective.

For several decades, researchers are working toward improving the "major" crops for better adaptability and tolerance to environmental stresses. However, little or no research attention is given toward neglected and underutilized crop species (NUCS) which hold the potential to ensure food and nutritional security among the ever-growing global population. NUCS are predominantly climate resilient, but their yield and quality are compromised due to selective breeding. In this context, the importance of omics technologies namely genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, phenomics and ionomics in delineating the complex molecular machinery governing growth, development and stress responses of NUCS is underlined. However, gaining insights through individual omics approaches will not be sufficient to address the research questions, whereas integrating these technologies could be an effective strategy to decipher the gene function, genome structures, biological pathways, metabolic and regulatory networks underlying complex traits. Given this, the chapter enlists the importance of NUCS in food and nutritional security and provides an overview of deploying omics approaches to study the NUCS. Also, the chapter enumerates the status of crop improvement programs in NUCS and suggests implementing "integrating omics" for gaining a better understanding of crops' response to abiotic and biotic stresses.

Seasonal variability of the ocean mixed layer depth depending on the cape Ghir filament and the upwelling in the Moroccan Atlantic coast

Abstract The determination of the monthly variations of the ocean mixed layer depth (MLD), in relationship with upwelling and filament is important in a climate change perspective. This paper presents a monthly change of the mixed layer properties, temperature, salinity, oxygen and fluorescence, to provide a better understanding of the relationship between upwelling, filament and the monthly variability of the MLD in the cape Ghir region latitude 31°N in Moroccan Atlantic coast. Firstly, we compared the MLD using the threshold method and the gradient method of temperature and density from CTD profiles in-situ data. Secondly, we observed the activity of upwelling variability in the region by satellite data. In the other hand, we used monthly mean seawater velocity from Mercator model to identify the filament structure. The general pattern of the in-situ MLD varies between 20m in summer and 150m in winter as the MLD variability derived from Mercator model. The deepest MLD occur in December and February, it coincides with a weak activity of upwelling. During April, June and August, the mixed layer is shallow, accompanied with a high activity of upwelling filament. In October, the mixed layer was deeper following a persistent activity of upwelling.

Sediment Stocks of Carbon, Nitrogen, and Phosphorus in Danish Eelgrass Meadows

Seagrass ecosystems provide an array of ecosystem services ranging from habitat provision to erosion control. From a climate change and eutrophication mitigation perspective, the ecosystem services include burial and storage of carbon and nutrients in the sediments. Eelgrass (Zostera marina) is the most abundant seagrass species along the Danish coasts, and while its function as a carbon and nutrient sink has been documented in some areas, the spatial variability of these functions, and the drivers behind them, are not well understood. Here we present the first nationwide study on eelgrass sediment stock of carbon (Cstock), nitrogen (Nstock), and phosphorus (Pstock). Stocks were measured in the top 10 cm of eelgrass meadows spanning semi-enclosed estuaries (inner and outer fjords) to open coasts. Further, we assessed environmental factors (level of exposure, sediment properties, level of eutrophication) from each area to evaluate their relative importance as drivers of the spatial pattern in the respective stocks. We found large spatial variability in sediment stocks, representing 155-4413 g C m-2, 24-448 g N m-2, and 7-34 g P m-2. Cstock and Nstock were significantly higher in inner fjords compared to outer fjords and open coasts. Cstock, Nstock, and Pstock showed a significantly positive relationship with the silt-clay content in the sediments. Moreover, Cstock was also significantly higher in more eutrophied areas with high concentrations of nutrients and chlorophyll a (chl a) in the water column. Conversely, silt-clay content was not related to nutrients or chl a, suggesting a spatial dependence of the importance of these factors in driving stock sizes and implying that local differences in sediment properties and eutrophication level should be included when evaluating the storage capacity of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus in Danish eelgrass meadows. These insights provide guidance to managers in selecting priority areas for carbon and nutrient storage for climate- and eutrophication mitigation initiatives. (Less)

Effect of Increased Temperature on Native and Alien Nuisance Cyanobacteria from Temperate Lakes: An Experimental Approach.

In response to global warming, an increase in cyanobacterial blooms is expected. In this work, the response of two native species of Planktothrix agardhii and Aphanizomenon gracile, as well as the response of two species alien to Europe—Chrysosporum bergii and Sphaerospermopsis aphanizomenoides—to gradual temperature increase was tested. The northernmost point of alien species distribution in the European continent was recorded. The tested strains of native species were favoured at 20–28 °C. Alien species acted differently along temperature gradient and their growth rate was higher than native species. Temperature range of optimal growth rate for S. aphanizomenoides was similar to native species, while C. bergii was favoured at 26–30 °C but sensitive at 18–20 °C. Under all tested temperatures, non-toxic strains of the native cyanobacteria species prevailed over the toxic ones. In P. agardhii, the decrease in concentration of microcystins and other oligopeptides with the increasing temperature was related to higher growth rate. However, changes in saxitoxin concentration in A. gracile under different temperatures were not detected. Accommodating climate change perspectives, the current work showed a high necessity of further studies of temperature effect on distribution and toxicity of both native and alien cyanobacterial species.

Influences of Extreme Weather Conditions on the Carbon Cycles of Bamboo and Tea Ecosystems

Tea plantations have expanded rapidly during the past several decades in China, the top tea-producing country, as a result of economic development; however, few studies have investigated the influence of tea plantations on the carbon cycle, especially from the perspective of climate change and increases in extreme weather events. Therefore, we employed combined observational and modeling methods to evaluate the water and carbon cycles at representative bamboo and tea plots in eastern China. Green tea growth and the corresponding water and carbon cycles were reproduced using the Community Land Model after applying fertilizer. Old-growth bamboo was reasonably simulated as broadleaf evergreen forest in this model. The mean observed soil respiration ranged from 1.79 to 2.57 and 1.34 to 1.50 µmol m−2 s−1 at the bamboo and tea sites, respectively, from April 2016 to October 2017. The observed soil respiration decreased by 23% and 55% due to extreme dryness in August 2016 at the bamboo and tea plots, respectively, and the model reproduced these decreases well. The modeling results indicated that tea acted as a stronger carbon sink during spring and a stronger carbon source during autumn and winter compared with old-growth bamboo. The carbon cycle was affected more by extremely dry weather than by extremely wet weather in both the bamboo and tea plots. Extremely dry periods markedly reduced the carbon sink at both plots, although this trend was more pronounced at the tea plot.

Climate change perspectives and adaptation strategies of business enterprises: a case study from Italy

ABSTRACTThe purpose of the paper is to present empirical evidence on how to develop climate-resilient business enterprises under the auspices of an industrial park management. This was facilitated through the collective mapping of climate adaptation strategies corresponding to the identified business risks exacerbated by climate events directly experienced in the shared territory. The cluster approach attempted to overcome the typical challenges of single business enterprises, mostly small and medium-sized enterprises, with respect to their lack of human and financial resources and scientific and technical knowledge to understand climate change risks. The prospects of facilitating knowledge-sharing and information exchange within a cluster of business enterprises give impetus to the replicability and transferability of the approach in other industrial areas and organizational contexts.

The Response of Subtropical Highs to Climate Change

Subtropical highs are an important component of the climate system with clear implications on the local climate regimes of the subtropical regions. In a climate change perspective, understanding and predicting subtropical highs and related climate is crucial to local societies for climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. We review the current understanding of the subtropical highs in the framework of climate change. Projected changes of subtropical highs are not uniform. Intensification, weakening, and shifts may largely differ in the two hemispheres but may also change across different ocean basins. For some regions, large inter-model spread representation of subtropical highs and related dynamics is largely responsible for the uncertainties in the projections. The understanding and evaluation of the projected changes may also depend on the metrics considered and may require investigations separating thermodynamical and dynamical processes. The dynamics of subtropical highs has a well-established theoretical background but the understanding of its variability and change is still affected by large uncertainties. Climate model systematic errors, low-frequency chaotic variability, coupled ocean-atmosphere processes, and sensitivity to climate forcing are all sources of uncertainty that reduce the confidence in atmospheric circulation aspects of climate change, including the subtropical highs. Compensating signals, coming from a tug-of-war between components associated with direct carbon dioxide radiative forcing and indirect sea surface temperature warming, impose limits that must be considered.

Effect of temperature variation on disease proliferation of common fishes in perspective of climate change

Meteorological variations and global warming frequently produce serious losses in fishing stocks and fish production. The rate of fish production depends on climatic variation and demand more prudent management of natural sources, attention to technological action and more specific knowledge of the fish and the emergent pathogens. Temperature affects the development of parasites and pathogenic bacteria and may also have effects on the resistance of fish to disease. Certain environmental conditions are considered door openers to opportunistic pathogens and important initiators of stress. Global warming and worsening of other environmental parameters causes an alteration of the immune-response, with a reduction in the resistance of fish and increases the occurrence of various diseases of fish. Climate change cans increase pathogen development and survival rates, disease transmission, and host susceptibility. Disease in fishes is caused by the infection of various types of bacteria, viruses and fungi. This type of disease has been noticed in many states of India.