Influence Of Climate Change Research Articles

Spatial and climatic drivers of β‐diversity in assemblages of angiosperm genera across the world

Abstract β‐diversity quantifies the change in taxonomic and phylogenetic composition between areas. It can be partitioned into two additive components (turnover and nestedness). Geographic distance, which reflects dispersal limitation, and climatic distance, which reflects environmental filtering, are major drivers of β‐diversity, but few studies have assessed their relative importance to β‐diversity at a global scale. Here, we investigate the relationship of β‐diversity of angiosperm genera in regional floras worldwide to climatic conditions within regions and to geographic and climatic distances between regions. We found that (1) current climate has a stronger effect on phylogenetic turnover than does Quaternary climate change; (2) of the current climate variables examined, mean annual temperature is the strongest driver of phylogenetic turnover, followed by precipitation seasonality; (3) regions with high precipitation seasonality have high phylogenetic β‐diversity and phylogenetic turnover; and (4) at a global scale, the variation in phylogenetic turnover explained jointly by geographic and climatic distances is, on average, much larger than that explained uniquely by either distance, but that geographic distance explains more variation in phylogenetic turnover than climatic distance. Synthesis. These results reveal the synergistic role of geographic isolation and climatic filtering in determining the composition of floras worldwide, with less influence of Quaternary climate changes.

Risk and path analysis of global industrial transformation in the context of climate change

Global industrial transformation is accelerating, and climate risks and natural disasters brought by climate change may have an impact on global industrial transformation. Therefore, how to promote global industrial reform in the context of climate change is an important issue that needs to be urgently solved by various countries at this stage. Starting from the background of climate change, this paper deeply discusses the impact of climate change on global industrial transformation and analyzes the possible risks and challenges. The results show that the impact of climate change on global industrial transformation may be a double-edged sword. Global industrial development may make new progress under the influence of climate change, but climate change may affect the process of industrial transformation, bring some pressure to industrial development, and reduce the economic benefits of industrial development. Therefore, it is necessary to scientifically understand the impact of climate change, take effective measures to mitigate climate risks and promote high-quality industrial development. Due to the differences in the economic levels of different countries, it is necessary to formulate corresponding development measures according to their conditions in the process of coping with climate change. The conclusions of this paper provide implications for coping with climate change and global industrial transformation.

Influence of climate change on water quality in Terra Nova River basin, Pernambuco, Brazil

Climate changes tend to intensify water scarcity in arid and semi-arid regions, making water management in these areas more challenging, directly influencing hydrological dynamics, causing impacts on ecosystems and society. The Terra Nova River basin is crucial for the water security of the semi-arid region of Pernambuco, especially after the construction of the São Francisco River Integration Project (PISF), which saw the construction of six reservoirs to supply water for human consumption, agricultural, and industrial activities. Therefore, this study aims to analyzes the impacts of climate changes on water quality in the Terra Nova River basin in Pernambuco, using long-term data from the Hydrological Response Unit System for Pernambuco (SUPer). The ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages) model is employed to predict water quality parameters in climate change scenarios, using data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz). The variables include air temperature, precipitation, dissolved oxygen, nitrogen, and phosphorus. Simulated scenarios were compared with CONAMA No. 357/2005 limits, revealing potential decreases in dissolved oxygen and phosphorus concentrations, alongside an increase in nitrogen concentrations. Irregular rainfall rates, high air temperatures, and evapotranspiration, combined with conflicts by water resources, may exacerbate water access issues in the semi-arid region, worsening the water crisis and threatening water security.

Bayesian inference of forest road failure frequency depending on rainfall intensity for every prefecture in Japan

ABSTRACT To make a quantitative prediction on forest road failures in the future under the influence of climate change, forest road failure frequency depending on rainfall intensity needs to be clarified. The forest road failure frequency at a certain rainfall intensity should vary regionally because of the variability in susceptibility. In the current situation of a lack of nationwide detailed forest road failure inventory data and GIS-based forest road data, this study analyzed the relationship between rainfall intensity and forest road failure frequency based on Bayesian inference using data available for all the 47 prefectures in Japan; the annual number of forest road failures, forest road length, analyzed precipitation data and polygon data of forest areas. The predicted forest road failure frequency varied broadly by prefecture; 10−4–10−2 km−1 at a rainfall event of 100 mm/24 h, while 10−2–100 km−1 at that of 400 mm/24 h. The frequency at the same rainfall intensity tended to be lower in conventionally rainy prefectures. The results imply that the number of forest road failures in currently less rainy regions may show a larger increase in the future as intense rainfall events are predicted all over Japan due to climate change.

Anthropogenic Exacerbation in Dry‐Hot Probability and Consequential Record‐Shattering Droughts in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

AbstractIn the year 2019, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) experienced an unprecedented summer‐autumn drought (SAD) driven by dry‐hot conditions [high near‐surface air temperatures (T) and low precipitation (P)], causing substantial agricultural and economic losses. However, the influence of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) on these dry‐hot conditions and their impacts on SAD occurrences remains uncertain. Here, both observations and simulations show that an ACC‐driven T increase led to the greater likelihood of dry‐hot conditions from August to November 1901–2020 in MLRYR. Using the self‐calibrating Palmer drought index (scPDSI) to assess SAD severity, we find an increasing likelihood of SAD occurrence (from 33.3% in 1901–2000 to 85.7% in 2001–2020) in MLRYR associated with more frequent dry‐hot conditions. Under a business‐as‐usual scenario, future dry‐hot association is projected to be stronger, with exceptional dry‐hot conditions to increase by +10% per century. ACC‐induced increase in dry‐hot conditions would elevate the likelihood of SAD events like the 2019 event from 1.59% (1961–2020) to 17.82% (2041–2100). Therefore, effective measures are needed in MLRYR to adapt to increasing dry‐hot conditions and associated SAD occurrences under anthropogenic warming.

Design and evaluation of an active vineyard heating system to simulate temperature increase in the context of climate change

The current study introduces an innovative direct and active heating system designed for precise temperature control in vineyards. This system serves as a valuable tool for investigating the influence of climate change on grapevine physiology and, consequently, the characteristics of the resulting wine. The research took place in an experimental vineyard located in Mendoza, Argentina, with V. vinifera cvs. trained to a vertical shoot positioning trellis system over two consecutive growing seasons. The system design utilized electric hot water tanks and polypropylene pipes attached to the foliage catch wires. Over two growing seasons, the system consistently elevated the ambient air temperatures within the canopy by 2.5 ± 0.12 °C compared to the control group. This temperature increase emulated the temperature projections for Mendoza as forecasted by the IPCC by the end of this century. The system displayed heating uniformity, as evidenced by the absence of both vertical and horizontal temperature gradients. Additionally, the significant variation in mean daytime and night-time temperatures between the control and heated treatments highlighted the effectiveness of the system in modifying temperature conditions on a diurnal basis. The heated treatment applied with this system proved to have an effective biological impact on the physiology of grapevines. In both seasons, plants under the heated treatment advanced their bud break and harvest dates. The study showed a significant growth enhancement in the heated treatment, with apical shoots extending significantly longer than those in the control treatment. Additionally, the total soluble solids content increased in the heating treatment, while yield decreased, for both experimental seasons. These results illustrate the robust performance of the system throughout the entire growth period, regardless of fluctuations in atmospheric conditions. This study establishes a new foundation for future research on grapevine responses to climate change. It also opens the door to the implementation of effective adaptation strategies in vineyards, promising a more resilient and adaptable future for grape cultivation.

Do attitudes toward air pollution influence climate change perception? Evidence from online customers in China

Abstract The perception of climate change as an abstract and distant concept hinders climate action. Previous studies suggest that individuals may conflate climate change and local air pollution due to misconceptions, as these environmental issues share similar emission sources and mitigation strategies. However, it remains uncertain whether leveraging the public's high perception of air pollution can lead to increased climate change awareness and supportive behaviors. In this study, we surveyed 1,236 Chinese online customers to explore the influence of air pollution perception on climate change perception and willingness to pay (WTP) for supporting climate actions. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) results revealed that higher air pollution perception, which is connected to an individual's living environment and health status, is significantly associated with higher climate change perception. Despite this link, higher climate change perception does not necessarily translate to higher WTP for climate actions. However, air pollution perception can indirectly increase WTP for climate actions by fostering avoidance behavior intentions. For practical implications, our findings suggest that an emphasis on the co-benefits of climate change mitigation efforts for improving air quality may help lead to greater policy support and understanding. Additionally, promoting individual behavioral changes requires connecting these issues to personal experiences and highlighting tangible benefits such as improved health and well-being.

Direct and lagged climate change effects intensified the 2022 European drought

AbstractIn 2022, Europe faced an extensive summer drought with severe socioeconomic consequences. Quantifying the influence of human-induced climate change on such an extreme event can help prepare for future droughts. Here, by combining observations and climate model outputs with hydrological and land-surface simulations, we show that Central and Southern Europe experienced the highest observed total water storage deficit since satellite observations began in 2002, probably representing the highest and most widespread soil moisture deficit in the past six decades. While precipitation deficits primarily drove the soil moisture drought, human-induced global warming contributed to over 30% of the drought intensity and its spatial extent via enhanced evaporation. We identify that 14–41% of the climate change contribution was mediated by the warming-driven drying of the soil that occurred before the hydrological year of 2022, indicating the importance of considering lagged climate change effects to avoid underestimating associated risks. Human-induced climate change had qualitatively similar effects on the extremely low observed river discharges. These results highlight that global warming effects on droughts are already underway, widespread and long lasting, and that drought risk may escalate with further human-induced warming in the future.

Global Biodiversity: Extinct Arctic Mammoth Tusks as Substitute Resource to Save Live Elephants

Objective: The aim of this article is to justify an approach to natural resource substitution using fossilised mammoth bones from the Arctic to conserve live elephants. Theoretical Framework - The theoretical idea and basis of the article is the replacement of ivory with the tusks of extinct mammoths against the background of melting permafrost in the Arctic. This approach is considered within the framework of a kind of 'mammoth pipeline' - the journey of extinct fossil mammoth tusks and their transformation into eternal values in the form of exclusive products, as well as their ultimate contribution to the conservation of living elephant populations. The theoretical basis of the study is the concept of sustainable development, the theory of natural resource substitution, biodiversity conservation, the concept of benefit sharing paradigm in Arctic mining. Method - The study is based on an interdisciplinary approach using methods from economics and management, ethnology and palaeontology, social research and monitoring. The evaluation of the effectiveness of the ivory to mammoth tusk substitution scheme is considered in terms of the benefits to global biodiversity conservation, including the maintenance of wild elephant populations and the development of traditional fisheries by indigenous peoples of the North. Results and Discussion - This article assesses the world resource of mammoth bone remains, concentrated in the Russian Arctic, and shows the possibilities of their use as a substitute natural resource for elephant conservation and socio-economic development of areas inhabited by indigenous peoples of the North. The influence of ongoing climate change on the increase in the extraction of fossil mammoth tusks is shown. The stages and links of the 'mammoth pipeline' under consideration, including the extraction of mammoth bones, the export and trade of tusks, and the substitution of mammoth tusks for ivory, are substantiated. The factors influencing the formation of the world demand for mammoth tusks are identified and the directions of their use for elephant conservation and socio-economic development of the local population in the Arctic territories in the areas of their extraction are shown. Research Implications - The results of the study can be used to conserve global biodiversity, develop a green economy, substitute mammoth tusks for ivory and conserve elephant populations. The authors estimate that supplying the world market with an average of 10 kilograms of mammoth ivory can save one elephant; exporting even half of the mammoth tusks extracted in Yakutia can save 60,000 elephants. At the same time, issues of social and economic support for the traditional trades and livelihoods of the indigenous peoples of the North are being addressed. Originality/ Value - The originality of the research and its value lie in the new scientific formulation of the solution to the scientific problem of global biodiversity conservation through the substitution of natural resources, the use of own empirical data obtained in the Arctic territories, as well as the possibility of practical application of the results obtained in the field of green economy.

The Impact of Climate Change on the Transmission of Vector-borne Diseases and Drug Administration: A Review

Climate change continues to be a big threat to humanity, particularly due to its significant impacts on human health. Although there have been some studies on the impacts of climate change on human health, there is a huge gap on its prospective effects on the transmission of vector-borne diseases and drug administration. Therefore this review provides a comprehensive impacts of climate change on the transmission of vector-borne diseases and drug administration It is estimated that the global temperature on average will potentially rise by 1.0 – 3.0 oC, thus increasing the chance of the emergent and increased rate of transmission of vector-borne diseases. Climate change continues to have a significant impact on overly poor and vulnerable populations across tropical and sub-tropical regions across the world. Some studies have established the influence of climate change on the transmission of diseases due to increasing changes in weather patterns such as rainfall and increase in temperature, as a result of global warming. It is believed that climate change will have a long-term effect on the propagation of diseases, and subsequently affect treatment from drug administration. Rising temperatures and global warming due to climate change can alter disease patterns, drug stability and change drug properties, thus potentially increasing drug toxicity and reducing drug efficacy.

What drives the distinct evolution of the Aral Sea and Lake Balkhash? Insights from a novel CD-RF-FA method

Study RegionThe Aral Sea and Lake Balkhash. Study FocusThis study explores the impacts of climate change and human activities on the inflow of the Aral Sea and Lake Balkhash, revealing the different driving factors behind the evolution of inland lakes in arid environments. To achieve this, we propose a novel approach that combines classical seasonal decomposition with Random Forest and Factor Analysis (CD-RF-FA) to quantitatively assess the influences of climate change and human activities on lake inflow. New Hydrological Insights for the RegionDuring the period from 1960 to 1990, anthropogenic factors predominantly influenced the inflow to the lakes, contributing 89.9 %, 91.8 %, and 91.6 % to the Lake Balkhash Basin (BAK), the Syr Darya Basin (SYR), and the Amu Darya Basin (AMU), respectively. However, from 1991 to 2020, the influence of human activities diminished, and climate variables gradually dominated the changes in inflow, contributing 52.2 % and 47.2 % to BAK and SYR, respectively, with upstream inflow being the main driving factor. Additionally, reservoir construction and political factors also played significant roles in the variation of inflow, exerting direct or indirect effects. This study provides crucial insights into the complex interplay of factors affecting inland lakes in arid regions and informs strategies to mitigate the Aral Sea Syndrome.

Groundwater dynamics clustering and prediction based on grey relational analysis and LSTM model: A case study in Beijing Plain, China

Study regionBeijing Plain, China Study focusThe traditional zoning of groundwater systems relies on lithological characteristics and hydraulic connections. However, the influence of climate change and human activities has led to the emergence of diverse dynamic patterns within these systems. Additionally, the differences in groundwater dynamic characteristics are often ignored when modeling with machine learning methods. In this study, a new clustering method named GRA-CLU was proposed to classify dynamic types of groundwater. Then, regional models are built using LSTM based on the dynamic zoning, aiming to incorporate hydrogeological significance into the pure data-driven model.New hydrological insights for the region: The GRA-CLU method classified the study area into six groundwater dynamic types. Compared with the traditional hydrogeological units, the new zoning result identified two dynamic types that have never been considered: urban influence zone and mountain-plain junction zone where surface water interacts with groundwater. Through analysis, the significant rise of groundwater levels in 2021 was more influenced by heavy rainfall events rather than human activities. This study further explored the performance of LSTM regional models based on the six dynamic zones. The results indicated that the NSE of models increased by 5.7–50.0 %, the improvement was more obvious in zones with irregular fluctuations. The RMSE decreased by 31.5–59.8 %, particularly noticeable in zones with regular annual fluctuations and large samples.

Assessing the influence of climate change on multiple climate indices in Nepal using CMIP6 global climate models

Global climate models (GCMs) serve as essential tools for projecting future climate trends, but their coarse resolution limits localized impact assessments in sectors like hydrology, agriculture, and biodiversity. Observation data with a spatial resolution of a few kilometers are crucial for downscaling and bias-correcting GCMs at finer resolutions. However, Nepal's extreme topography and organizational challenges have led to uneven distribution of meteorological stations and inconsistent data quality. Moreover, CMIP6-based climate extremes projections for the entire country are currently unavailable. To tackle these challenges, we developed a comprehensive national database for Nepal, offering high-resolution historical and projected precipitation and temperature data analyzed through 25 climate extreme indices from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Initially, observation grid data were prepared at a daily timescale with a spatial resolution of 0.05° × 0.05° for baseline period (1981–2010) using the Asian Precipitation High-Resolved Observational Data Integration Toward Evaluation (APHRODITE), the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis (ERA5), and available good quality observed climate data. This data was then utilized to downscale and bias-correct 18 CMIP6 GCMs for 2015–2100 under four SSPs (1–2.6, 2–4.5, 3–7.0, 5–8.5). Quantile mapping was employed for the bias correction of the CMIP6 GCMs. The performance of the multimodal ensemble (MME) indicated better Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), root mean square error ratio (RSR), and Percent Bias (PBIAS) of climate extreme indices for the historical period. A comparative analysis was conducted across Nepal's major geographic regions to account for spatial variability in regional climate systems. The finer-resolution dataset can be crucial to deepen our understanding of climate impacts, and climate change, and eventually informing the policy-making in Nepal. Moreover, the methodology can be effectively replicated in data-scarce developing nations to promote climate research and adaptation efforts.

Tracing the Evolutionary History of the Temperature-Sensing Prion-like Domain in EARLY FLOWERING 3 Highlights the Uniqueness of AtELF3.

Plants have evolved mechanisms to anticipate and adjust their growth and development in response to environmental changes. Understanding the key regulators of plant performance is crucial to mitigate the negative influence of global climate change on crop production. EARLY FLOWERING 3 (ELF3) is one such regulator playing a critical role in the circadian clock and thermomorphogenesis. In Arabidopsis thaliana, ELF3 contains a prion-like domain (PrLD) that acts as a thermosensor, facilitating liquid-liquid phase separation at high ambient temperatures. To assess the conservation of this function across the plant kingdom, we traced the evolutionary emergence of ELF3, with a focus on the presence of PrLDs. We found that the PrLD, primarily influenced by the length of polyglutamine (polyQ) repeats, is most prominent in Brassicales. Analyzing 319 natural A. thaliana accessions, we confirmed the previously described wide range of polyQ length variation in AtELF3, but found it to be only weakly associated with geographic origin, climate conditions, and classic temperature-responsive phenotypes. Interestingly, similar polyQ length variation was not observed in several other investigated Bassicaceae species. Based on these findings, available prediction tools and limited experimental evidence, we conclude that the emergence of PrLD, and particularly polyQ length variation, is unlikely to be a key driver of environmental adaptation. Instead, it likely adds an additional layer to ELF3's role in thermomorphogenesis in A. thaliana, with its relevance in other species yet to be confirmed.

Influence of climate change on flowering phenology of Yoshino cherry at its southern distribution limit.

To clarify the influence of climate change on the flowering phenology of Yoshino cherry at its southern distribution limit, we examined the relationship between cold exposure for endodormancy release (chilling requirement) and heat requirement for bud growth on Hachijojima Island, Japan, from 1948 to 2024. Cold exposure and heat requirement had a significant relationship approximated by linear or log-linear functions. In years with less cold exposure, the first flowering dates were much later than normal, in accordance with the higher heat requirement. Our results indicate that the variation in the balance between cold exposure and heat requirement depending on the pattern of annual air temperature change is likely to vary the first flowering date greatly at the distribution limit of Yoshino cherry.

Natural disturbance history regime and the development of the dark coniferous forest in the Southern Sikhote-Alin

Age shifts in fir–spruce forests and the potential influence of ongoing climate changes upon them are pressing issues. The study focuses on a stand of undisturbed fir–spruce forest located in the southern Sikhote-Alin at an altitude of 530 m a.s.l. A permanent sample plot was established there in 2001, and a revision was conducted in 2022–2023 with wood samples (cores) obtained. The research has revealed significant deviations in the stand development from the previously described pattern of age shifts in virgin fir–spruce forests. Firstly, it was established that there have been no major stand disturbances over the last 242 years, and only minor ones occurring in 1831–1850 and 1931–1950 were identified. About 50% of Jezo spruce trees survived at least 2 minor disturbances during their development. Secondly, it is shown that Jezo spruce does not form a single-age generation within the studied stand. It was also found that at the time of revision, the stand was in a situation preceding a new stand disturbance. An important result obtained is that a stable trend of decreasing growth has been observed in 75% of Jezo spruce trees since 2001. This trend might not be associated with age shifts within the stand but could be attributed to the spruce’s response to global climate changes. Such a trend could significantly impact the age shifts in fir– spruce forest stands.

Towards the cost of health in Africa: examining the synergistic effect of climate change and renewable energy on health expenditure

AbstractClimate change has become the centre of discussion among scholars and practitioners globally. This is believed to have severe consequences for the environment and human health, leading to significant implications for health financing. However, empirical investigations examining the climate change-health nexus remain scarce and underexplored. Hence, this study contributes to knowledge by exploring the direct and synergistic influence of renewable energy and climate change on health expenditure (i.e., national, public, private and external) in Africa. The study employs annual data from a panel of 47 African countries between 2006 and 2019, which are estimated using the generalised method of moments. Robustness checks are performed using alternative proxies for climate change and the Driscoll-Kraay estimation technique. The empirical outcomes reveal that high CO2 emissions increase the various indices of health expenditure, implying environmental degradation triggers higher costs in health spending. The empirical results further show that renewable energy presents a negative and significant influence on health expenditure, showing that health expenditure decreases due to the adoption of renewable energy. Additionally, the study finds that renewable energy weakens the effect of carbon emissions on health spending, including public, private and external health expenditures. This implies that the severe impact of climate change on health expenditure is reduced through the intervening role of renewable energy sources. The study recommends that policymakers implement targeted policies towards reducing carbon emissions and increasing renewable energy consumption to improve health outcomes. Governments must also promote universal health coverage to ensure inclusive coverage as climate change becomes increasingly apparent.

Effects of Climate Changes and Crop Phenological Responses on Soil Organic Carbon of Cultivated Land in Fujian Province

Research on the mechanism of how climate change affects cultivated soil organic carbon is the basis for the management of cultivated land quality in the context of climate change. Crop phenological responses to climate change have an important effect on cultivated soil organic carbon as well. However, previous research primarily focused on the independent effects of climate change or crop phenological responses on the changes in soil organic carbon, and few studies have analyzed the changes in cultivated soil organic carbon under the combined influence of both factors or quantified their contribution rates to the changes in cultivated soil organic carbon. Based on topsoil samples in 2008 and 2021, annual pre-season and mid-season climate data from 2008 to 2021, and the phenological parameters extracted from the enhanced vegetation index （EVI） time series from 2007 to 2022, a soil organic carbon predictive model was constructed using the random forest algorithm. The total change in soil organic carbon from 2008 to 2021, the change in soil organic carbon under climate change alone, and the change in soil organic carbon under the synergistic influence of climate change and crop phenological responses were simulated. Furthermore, the contributions of climate change and crop phenological responses to the changes in cultivated soil organic carbon were distinguished and quantified. Moreover, the dominant influencing factors of soil organic carbon changes and their spatial distributions were identified and analyzed. The results were as follows： ① Under the synergistic influence of climate change and crop phenological responses, a decrease was observed in soil organic carbon in 74.15% of the cultivated land area in Fujian Province during the years 2008-2021, with an average decrease of 2.20 g·kg-1. Additionally, there was an increase in soil organic carbon in 25.85% of the cultivated area, with an average increase of 1.48 g·kg-1. ②The average contribution rates of pre-season climate, crop phenological responses to climate change, mid-season climate, and phenological changes resulting from cultivars shifts or other adjustments of agricultural measures to soil organic carbon changes were 34.08%, 28.56%, 22.75%, and 14.61%, respectively. Overall, climate change had a greater impact on the changes in cultivated soil organic carbon in Fujian Province than the crop phenological response to climate change. ③ The regions where climate change and phenological response jointly acted as dominant influencing factors held the largest area, accounting for 47.06% of the total cultivated land area in Fujian Province, and the regions where climate change was the dominant influencing factor alone held the second-largest area, accounting for 28.64% of the total cultivated land area. ④ Higher contribution rates of pre-season climate factors and phenological changes resulting from cultivar shifts or other adjustments of agricultural measures tended to be distributed in higher-altitude areas, whereas higher contribution rates of mid-season climate factors and phenological responses to climate change tended to be distributed in lower-altitude areas. These research findings can provide a theoretical basis for decision making regarding the management of cultivated land quality and the safeguarding of food security in the context of climate change.

Changing windstorm characteristics over the US Northeast in a single model large ensemble

Abstract Extreme windstorms pose a significant hazard to infrastructure and public safety, particularly in the highly populated US Northeast (NE). However, the influence climate change and changing land use will have on these events remains unclear. A large ensemble generated using the Max-Planck Institute (MPI) Earth system model is used to generate projections of NE windstorms under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and to attribute changes to projected land use land cover (LULC) change, externally forced changes and internal climate variability. To reduce the influence of coarse grid cell resolution and uncertainties in surface roughness lengths, windstorms are identified using simultaneous widespread exceedance of local 99th percentile 10 m wind speeds (U99). Projected declines in forest cover in the NE and the resulting reductions in surface roughness length under SSP3-7.0 lead to projections of large increases in U99 and derived windstorm intensity and scale. However, these projected changes in regional LULC under SSP3-7.0 are unprecedented in a historical context and may not be realistic. After corrections are applied to remove the influence of LULC on wind speeds, regionally averaged U99 exhibit declines for most of the single model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE) members which are broadly proportional to the radiative forcing and global air temperature increase in the SSPs, with a median value of −0.15 ms−1 °C−1. While weak cyclones are projected to decline in frequency in the NE, intense cyclones and the resulting windstorms and indices of socioeconomic loss do not. Where present, significant trends in these loss indices are positive, and some MPI SMILE members generate future windstorms that are unprecedented in the historical period.

Assessment of the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Suitable Habitats for Typical Halophytic Vegetation in China Based on Maxent Model and Landscape Ecology Theory

The widespread and complex formation of saline soils in China significantly affects the sustainable development of regional ecosystems. Intense climate changes and regional land use further exacerbate the uncertainties faced by ecosystems in saline areas. Therefore, studying the distribution characteristics of typical halophytic vegetation under the influence of climate change and human activities, and exploring their potential distribution areas, is crucial for maintaining ecological security in saline regions. This study focuses on Tamarix chinensis, Tamarix austromongolica, and Tamarix leptostachya, integrating geographic information systems, remote sensing, species distribution models, and landscape ecological risk (LER) theories and technologies. An optimized MaxEnt model was established using the ENMeval package, incorporating 143, 173, and 213 distribution records and 13 selected environmental variables to simulate the potential suitable habitats of these three Tamarix species. A quantitative assessment of the spatial characteristics and the area of their potential geographical distribution was conducted. Additionally, a landscape ecological risk assessment (LERA) of the highly suitable habitats of these three Tamarix species was performed using land use data from 1980 to 2020, and the results of the LERA were quantified using the Landscape Risk Index (LERI). The results showed that the suitable areas of Tamarix chinensis, Tamarix austromongolica, and Tamarix leptostachya were 9.09 × 105 km2, 6.03 × 105 km2, and 5.20 × 105 km2, respectively, and that the highly suitable habitats for the three species were concentrated in flat areas such as plains and basins. Tamarix austromongolica faced increasing ecological risk in 27.22% of its highly suitable habitat, concentrated in the northern region, followed by Tamarix chinensis in 16.70% of its area with increasing ecological risk, concentrated in the western and northern highly suitable habitats; Tamarix chinensis was the least affected, with an increase in ecological risk in only 1.38% of its area. This study provides valuable insights for the protection of halophytic vegetation, represented by Tamarix, in the context of China’s national land development.