Climate Change In Southern Africa Research Articles

Climate Change Impacts on Wildlife Protected Areas in Southern Africa: a Bibliometric Analysis

The article examines how climate change has impacted wildlife-protected areas in Southern Africa in the context of tourism development. Protected areas are known as preferred destinations for nature-loving tourists. Using a systematic review and bibliometric analysis the authors identify symptoms of climate change in Southern Africa’s wildlife-protected areas and adaptation strategies for resilient destinations. Some of the key effects of climate change identified in the analysis include species reduction, human-wildlife conflicts, habitat quality and infrastructure modification and social impacts. The authors establish at what levels changing climatic conditions in protected areas affect conservation and tourism processes in protected areas thus contributing to the body of knowledge on wildlife-human interactions, survival strategies of community members and interactions between community members and conservation organizations. The synthesized data can be used in future studies to focus on climate-proofing protected areas and surrounding communities, can help social enterprises and conservation groups to improve community resilience against climate change and inform conservation ecosystem-based adaptation strategies.

Mopane (Colophospermum mopane): A potential winner under climate change in southern Africa

AbstractDistribution and abundance under climate change of particularly non‐timber forest product tree species is vital since they sustain many livelihoods, especially in rural sub‐Saharan Africa. The aim of the study was to determine the current and future natural range of mopane (Colophospermum mopane (J. Kirk ex Benth.) J. Léonard, Fabaceae), a dominant tree species in mopane woodlands of southern Africa. An ensemble model was built in ‘biomod2’ from eight algorithms and used to estimate the current and future distribution. Seven bioclimatic variables and 269 occurrence records were used to calibrate individual models that were later combined into an ensemble model. The ensemble model was projected to two time periods, 2041–2060 and 2081–2100, under two shared socio‐economic pathways (SSPs), SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5, and three general circulation models (GCMs). The ensemble model showed high performance (KAPPA = 0.770, ROC = 0.961, TSS = 0.792, ACCURACY = 0.900). A map of the current distribution shows occurrence predominantly in low‐lying areas, including the Zambezi, Save and Limpopo valleys, Okavango and Cuvelai basins, and in southern and central Mozambique. Projection maps show expansion under all SSPs, GCMs and time periods. Averaged across GCMs in 2041–2060, the range expanded by 22.37% under SSP2‐4.5, and by 19.94% under SSP5‐8.5. In 2081–2100, the range expanded by 20.43% under SSP2‐4.5, and by 27.62% under SSP5‐8.5. Notably, the range expansion was highest under SSP5‐8.5, an SSP that envisages unmitigated greenhouse gas release and the largest mean global temperature increase. It is highly likely that mopane is not directly threatened by climate change. Indirect climate change threats, however, remain uncertain.

Light-coloured concrete surfacing for urban heat-island mitigation in Southern Africa

Global population growth and rapid urbanisation have resulted in the rapid transformation of natural topographies that are now dominated by engineering materials and structures. It is widely recognised that economic development is largely attributable to infrastructure development. However, this development has come about with adverse consequences. In this paper, the effects of surface characteristics, climatic parameters and material properties on the thermal environment and near-surface heat islands in urban areas were investigated. An experiment was conducted in which simple concrete structures with varying surface characteristics were constructed and instrumented. The effect of solar absorptivity was clearly visible, with structures surfaced with low absorptivity materials exhibiting lower surface and effective temperatures. Following the experimental programme, numerical simulations of the simple concrete structures were performed using finite element modelling. The analyses showed that the thermal environment of concrete structures is sensitive to changes in solar absorptivity, climatic parameters, cross-sectional dimensions, and material properties. It was found that the use of low absorptivity or highly reflective surfacing and the selection of appropriate dimensions can be used to significantly reduce the temperatures of concrete infrastructure, including buildings and pavements, thereby providing an evidential basis for the use of low absorptivity surfacing materials to mitigate climate change in Southern Africa.

Dryland dunes and other dryland environmental archives as proxies for Late Quaternary stratigraphy and environmental and climate change in southern Africa

AbstractThe Namib Desert and the Kalahari constitute the drylands of southern Africa, with the current relatively humid portions of the latter having experienced periodically drier conditions during the Late Quaternary. This study explores the range of dryland archives and proxies available for the past ~190 ka. These include classic dryland geomorphological proxies, such as sand dunes, as well as water-lain sediments within former lakes and ephemeral fluvial systems, lake shorelines, sand ramps, water-lain calcrete and tufa sediments at the interface of surface hydrological and hydrogeological, speleothems and groundwater hydrogeological records, and hyrax middens. Palaeoenvironmental evidence can also be contained within geoarchaeological archives in caves, overhangs and rockshelters. This integration of records is undertaken with the aim of identifying a (or a number of) terrestrial regional chronostratigraphic framework(s) for this time period within southern Africa, because this is missing from the Quaternary stratigraphy lexicon. Owing to a lack of long, near-continuous terrestrial sequences in these drylands, the correspondence between nearby terrestrial records are explored as a basis for parasequences to build this chronostratigraphy. Recognising the modern climatological diversity across the subcontinent, four broad spatial subdivisions are used to explore potential sub-regional parasequences, which capture current climatic gradients, including the hyper-arid west coast and the decrease in aridity from the southwest Kalahari toward the north and east. These are the Namib Desert, the northern Kalahari, the southern Kalahari and the eastern fringes of the southern Kalahari. Terrestrial chronostratigraphies must start from premise that climate-driven environmental shifts may have occurred independently to those in other terrestrial locations and may be diachronous compared to the marine oxygen isotope stratigraphy (MIS), which serves as a global-scale master climatostratigraphy relating to global ice volume. The fragmented nature of preserved evidence means that we are still some way from producing unambiguous parasequences. There is however, a rich record to consider, compile and compare, within which seven broad wetter intervals are identified, with breaks between these inferred to be relatively drier, and some also have proxy evidence for drying. The onset and cessation of these wetter intervals does not align with MIS: they occur with greater frequency, but not with regular periodicity. Precession-paced insolation forcing is often invoked as a key control on southern African climate, but this does not explain the pacing of all of the identified events. Overall, the pattern is complex with some corresponding wetter intervals across space and others with opposing west-east trends. The evidence for drying over the past 10 ka is pronounced in the west (Namib Desert), with ephemerally wet conditions in the south (southern Kalahari). The patterns identified here provide a framework to be scrutinised and to inspire refinements to proposed terrestrial chronostratigraphies for southern Africa. Considering changes across this large geographic area also highlights the complexity in environmental responses across space as we continue to test a range of hypotheses about the nature of climatic forcing in this region.

Pursuing fullness of life through harmony with nature: Towards an African response to environmental destruction and climate change in Southern Africa

Like the rest of the developed world, African nations are now subject to consumerist tendencies of the global economic architecture and activities, which excessively exploit natural resources for profits and are at the centre of what this article describes as ‘disharmony between nature and humanity’. The exploitative nature of consumerist tendencies requires healing and restoration as it leads towards unpredictable and destructive weather patterns in which the relationships between human activity and the environment have created patterns and feedback mechanisms that govern the presence, distribution and abundance of species assemblages. Disharmony is employed to describe the exploitative nature of consumerist tendencies that lead to unpredictable weather patterns. The consequences include climate change and natural disasters such as floods, drought and environmental pollution, which have been severely experienced in Southern Africa recently. This article provides a qualitative literature review on recent religious and ecumenical responses to climate change crisis and draws on the notions of ‘cultural landscapes’ and ‘ecotheology’ to highlight an exploitative relationship, which is characterised by disharmony in the relationship between humanity and nature. This illustration demonstrates how the concept of unity between ‘self and the entire Kosmos’ in African worldview presents a potentially constructive African theology of ecology. Amongst other recommendations, the article proposed that in order for humanity to restore harmony and attain fullness of life – oikodome – with nature the notions of healing, reconciliation, liberation and restoration should be extended to human relations or interactions with nature and all of God’s creation.Contribution: This article represents a contextual and systematic reflection on climate challenges facing the African context within a paradigm in which the intersection of philosophy, religious studies, social sciences, humanities and natural sciences generates an interdisciplinary, multidisciplinary and transdisciplinary contested discourse.

Fluvial sediments and playa deposits of the Naukluft Mts. foreland and Tsauchab Valley, Namibia – New insights from key sections in the Late Quaternary landscape and climate change in Southern Africa

Fluvial sediments and playa deposits of the Naukluft Mts. foreland and Tsauchab Valley, Namibia – New insights from key sections in the Late Quaternary landscape and climate change in Southern Africa

Da teoria verde ao ecofeminismo: mulheres na África Meridional frente às mudanças climáticas

Considerando a presença feminina na África Meridional no que tange às mudanças climáticas, este artigo objetiva-se analisar a temática à luz das teorias verde e ecofeminista. Sob tal prisma, utiliza-se uma metodologia de abordagem qualitativa, apoiando-se em análises de caráter documental e bibliográfico. O resultado do presente trabalho gira em torno da discussão acerca da demonstração de como as teorias supracitadas contribuem para a atuação das mulheres africanas frente às mudanças climáticas na região meridional africana. Conclui-se, portanto, que os principais obstáculos enfrentados diante da desigualdade de gênero, no âmbito socioeconômico, são intensificados pelos impactos ambientais na região, tornando-as o principal grupo afetado.

Environmental change, risk and vulnerability: poverty, food insecurity and HIV/AIDS amid infrastructural development and climate change in Southern Africa

AbstractThe Lesotho Highlands Water Project (LHWP) is a transnational multi-dam infrastructural development project to sell water from Lesotho to South Africa. Based on field and secondary research in Lesotho, I demonstrate how infrastructural projects such as the LHWP shape a geography of risk and become a medium through which riskscapes are created or exacerbated in both South Africa and Lesotho. Project-induced changes interacted with and intensified co-occurring vulnerabilities for communities directly and indirectly affected by the LHWP over time. I focus specifically on risks to livelihood, food insecurity and health, within the context of increased climatic shocks in the region.

Migration under Climate Change in Southern Africa: A Nexus Planning Perspective.

Population increase is exacerbating resource insecurities due to increased demand for already depleted resources. Coupled with climate change, they are the main drivers of both intra-(rural-urban and urban-urban) and inter-migration (from one country to the other). We carried out a systematic review of literature, focusing on available options to ensure water and food security, as well as improve the socio-economic environment, highlighting the drivers of migration in southern Africa. The aim was to develop informed adaptation strategies and build resilience in the advent of accelerated migration. We developed a migration conceptual framework based on the nexus between water, food and socio-economic interlinkages. Urban areas in southern Africa are under immense pressure to accommodate climate refugees from resource stressed rural areas, a situation that is impacting on agricultural production. Most urban areas are exceeding their ecological thresholds to support the built environment, causing some socio-ecological challenges. Nexus planning can inform adaptation planning on permissible migration that are aligned with regional goals such as regional integration, poverty reduction and improved livelihoods. This would also contribute to the region's achievements of the Sustainable Development Goals. Furthermore, through the identification of synergies and trade-offs, nexus planning can inform regional adaptation strategies for positively managing migration leading to sustainable outcomes.

Complementary practices supporting conservation agriculture in southern Africa. A review

Conservation agriculture (CA)—the simultaneous application of minimum soil disturbance, crop residue retention, and crop diversification—is a key approach to address declining soil fertility and the adverse effects of climate change in southern Africa. Applying the three defining principles of CA alone, however, is often not enough, and complementary practices and enablers are required to make CA systems more functional for smallholder farmers in the short and longer term. Here, we review 11 complementary practices and enablers grouped under six topical areas to highlight their critical need for functional CA systems, namely: (1) appropriate nutrient management to increase productivity and biomass; (2) improved stress-tolerant varieties to overcome biotic and abiotic stresses; (3) judicious use of crop chemicals to surmount pest, diseases, and weed pressure; (4) enhanced groundcover with alternative organic resources or diversification with green manures and agroforestry; (5) increased efficiency of planting and mechanization to reduce labor, facilitate timely planting, and to provide farm power for seeding; and (6) an enabling political environment and more harmonized and innovative extension approaches to streamline and foster CA promotional efforts. We found that (1) all 11 complementary practices and enablers substantially enhance the functioning of CA systems and some (e.g., appropriate nutrient management) are critically needed to close yield gaps; (2) practices and enablers must be tailored to the local farmer contexts; and (3) CA systems should either be implemented in a sequential approach, or initially at a small scale and grow from there, in order to increase feasibility for smallholder farmers. This review provides a comprehensive overview of practices and enablers that are required to improve the productivity, profitability, and feasibility of CA systems. Addressing these in southern Africa is expected to stimulate the adoption of CA by smallholders, with positive outcomes for soil health and resilience to climate change.

Right to Food and Climate Change in Southern Africa: International and National Protection for Indigenous Peoples. The Cases of South Africa, Namibia and Botswana

This article explores the concept of the “right to food” through an indigenous peoples rights lens and in the context of climate change in southern Africa. The article critically examines the legal framework relevant to the “right to food” at the international and African regional level. The article then focuses on the legal situations in South Africa, Namibia and Botswana, and describes the domestic regulatory framework and case-law developments. The state of the play appears to be highly diversified in these three countries. This article strives to ground the legal analysis with a review of the current situation regarding the right to food for indigenous peoples in the selected countries. The article describes different levels of advancement of the legal right to food at the national level as well as different methods pursued to implement the right. However, as indigenous peoples are not identified as a specific grouping in many studies or in some national census data, it is difficult to develop a comprehensive overview of whether their right to food is attained in practice. The article suggests that to ascertain whether states are fulfilling their three key obligations regards RtF, namely to respect, protect and fulfill, indigenous representatives must be consulted.

Addressing Climate Change in Southern Africa: Any Role for South Africa in the Post-Paris Agreement?

Climate change is a global challenge. Its ramifying effects on both natural and human systems cut across different regions of the world. While Africa as a whole is being confirmed to be more affected by climate change due in part to a relatively low(er) mitigation and adaptive capacity, coupled with a situation where majority of its population depends mainly on natural resources, Southern Africa is singled out as a potentially vulnerable subregion for other additional factors. Representing a milestone in the trajectory of the global climate change process, the 21st session of the Conference of Parties (COP-21) resolved with a consensual climate change deal known as the Paris Agreement. The Agreement, through the instrumentality of a ratchet up mechanism, otherwise described as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), seeks significant cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions effectively from 2020. In essence, it calls for a novel though gradual shift from carbon-emission approach to low emission development strategy. This, no doubt, is indispensable to sustainable development at all levels. Beyond national commitments as obligatory for parties, there is a need for regional cooperative efforts which should bring about shared appropriate policy responses that promote green energy as well as seize opportunities inherent in it for national and deterritorialised gains. Adopting neoliberal and green theories, the institutional framework of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) where South Africa is expected to take a lead is examined in this article.

Potential impacts of forestation on future climate change in Southern Africa

ABSTRACTMany studies have projected future climate changes over Southern Africa, but without including the influence of on‐going forestation activities in the region. The present study investigates how the forestation activities may alter the projected climate change. For the study, two regional climate models (RegCM and WRF) were applied to simulate the present‐day climate (1970–2004) and future climate (2030–2064; IPCC RCP 4.5), with and without forestation. The simulations account for the potential impacts of natural bush encroachment and commercial forestation activities over the eastern part of South Africa. The results agree with previous studies that found that the RCP4.5 emission scenario would induce warming over Southern Africa in the future, but the results further indicate that forestation would enhance the warming over the forested area and induce cooling elsewhere. The additional warming over the forested area is due to the albedo effect of the forestation, while the cooling is due to the dynamic feedback of the local warming induced by the forestation. For similar reasons, the forestation would induce wet and dry conditions over different areas in the sub‐continent in the future. As a result of its combined influences on rainfall and temperature, the forestation would enhance summer drought frequency over some areas but reduce it over other areas in Southern Africa. The simulations suggest that using forestation to mitigate the impacts of global warming may produce unintended climate impacts over some areas in Southern Africa. Hence, before embarking on large‐scale forestation, the biophysical effects of forestation in Southern Africa should be weighed against the biogeochemical benefits.

English

The study examines farmer adaptation strategies to climate change in Southern Africa based on a cross-section database of three countries (South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe). A multivariate discrete choice model was used to analyse the determinants of farm-level adaptation strategies. Results confirm that access to credit, free extension services, awareness of climate change are critical determinants of farm-level adaptation options. Policies aimed at easing identified key limits to farmers’ capacity to adapt to climate change need to emphasize the critical role of: extension services; provision of improved climate, production and market information as well as the means to implement adaptation through affordable credit and insurance against climate risks (safety nets). Key words: Climate change, farm-level adaptation, Southern Africa.

The environmental context for the origins of modern human diversity: A synthesis of regional variability in African climate 150,000–30,000 years ago

We synthesize African paleoclimate from 150 to 30 ka (thousand years ago) using 85 diverse datasets at a regional scale, testing for coherence with North Atlantic glacial/interglacial phases and northern and southern hemisphere insolation cycles. Two major determinants of circum-African climate variability over this time period are supported by principal components analysis: North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variations and local insolation maxima. North Atlantic SSTs correlated with the variability found in most circum-African SST records, whereas the variability of the majority of terrestrial temperature and precipitation records is explained by local insolation maxima, particularly at times when solar radiation was intense and highly variable (e.g., 150–75 ka). We demonstrate that climates varied with latitude, such that periods of relatively increased aridity or humidity were asynchronous across the northern, eastern, tropical and southern portions of Africa. Comparisons of the archaeological, fossil, or genetic records with generalized patterns of environmental change based solely on northern hemisphere glacial/interglacial cycles are therefore imprecise.We compare our refined climatic framework to a database of 64 radiometrically-dated paleoanthropological sites to test hypotheses of demographic response to climatic change among African hominin populations during the 150–30 ka interval. We argue that at a continental scale, population and climate changes were asynchronous and likely occurred under different regimes of climate forcing, creating alternating opportunities for migration into adjacent regions. Our results suggest little relation between large scale demographic and climate change in southern Africa during this time span, but strongly support the hypothesis of hominin occupation of the Sahara during discrete humid intervals ∼135–115 ka and 105–75 ka. Hominin populations in equatorial and eastern Africa may have been buffered from the extremes of climate change by locally steep altitudinal and rainfall gradients and the complex and variable effects of increased aridity on human habitat suitability in the tropics. Our data are consistent with hominin migrations out of Africa through varying exit points from ∼140–80 ka.

Responding to climate change in southern Africa - the role of research.

Projections show that the effects of climate change in Africa will not be uniform over the region. The region is extremely vulnerable to the impact of climate change because of poverty, a high pre-existing disease burden, fragmented health services and existing water and food insecurity. Despite the consensus that locally relevant information is necessary to inform policy and practice related to climate change, very few studies assessing the association between climate change and health in southern Africa have been conducted. More complete information is therefore urgently needed for the southern African region to estimate the health risks from projected future changes in climate.

Adaptation to climate change in Southern Africa: factoring in AIDS

Abstract This paper addresses the interactions between the AIDS epidemic and climate change in southern Africa, particularly as they impact on food security. An assessment was undertaken through a comprehensive literature review. Understanding the underlying causes of regional food insecurity inevitably means understanding the role of the AIDS epidemic and increasingly climate change amongst other stressors. AIDS cuts through household and community level capacity, as well as the capacity of key facilitators of the adaptation process including state extension services and civil society organisations. The main argument of the paper is that adaptation to climate change must explicitly factor in the existing and long-term effects of the epidemic. While calls for embracing adaptation abound, little is being done to assess and strengthen the organisational capacity of institutions, which should play leading roles in any attempt to help prepare for a changing climate. In particular the capacity of key agencies has been undermined by the AIDS epidemic. This reiterates the need for a multisectoral approach and building bridges between agriculture and health sectors to ensure longer term support to livelihoods where HIV and hunger coexist, often overlaid by climate change.

AIDS, Agriculture and Climate Change in Southern Africa

AIDS, Agriculture and Climate Change in Southern Africa

Reappraisal of contemporary perspectives on climate change in southern Africa's Okavango Delta sub-region

This paper provides a reappraisal of contemporary perspectives on climate change in southern Africa's Okavango Delta sub-region by drawing on time-line evidence from historical/archival records, field-compiled information and multi-date remotely sensed imagery. By using temporal variations in stream discharge and surface and groundwater distribution as proxies of declining rainfall from the beginning of the 19th century, trends emerging from this reconstruction suggest that progressive contraction of the Delta's permanent floodplains, the desiccation of Lake Ngami in its distal reaches, fossilization of receiver channels, sustained dewatering of aquifers, and changes in vegetation from grassland to drought-tolerant woody species are non-transient precursors of increasing aridity and deteriorating climatic conditions. With evidence pointing to persistent drying sequences and system failures to revert to moister climate conditions of the recent historical past, hypotheses that characterize deteriorating rainfall and recurring flood failures in this environment as isolated singularities in a punctuated equilibrium need to be reconsidered in order to provide empirically grounded planetary change perspectives that are consistent with evidence over long-term temporal horizons.

Scenarios of biodiversity loss in southern Africa in the 21st century

The rich biodiversity of southern Africa has to date been relatively unimpacted by the activities of modern society, but to what degree will this situation persist into the 21st century? We use a leading global environmental assessment model (IMAGE) to explore future land use and climate change in southern Africa under the scenarios developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. We assess the impacts on terrestrial biodiversity using the Biodiversity Intactness Index, which gives the average change in population size relative to the pre-modern state, across all terrestrial species of plants and vertebrates. Over the coming century, we project absolute declines in the average population sizes of these taxa that are two to three times greater than the reductions that have occurred since circa 1700. Our results highlight the immense challenges faced by efforts to reduce rates of biodiversity loss in southern Africa, even under relatively optimistic scenarios. These results stress the urgent need for better aligning biodiversity conservation and development priorities in the region. Furthermore, we suggest that context-sensitive conservation targets that account for the development imperatives in different parts of the region are needed.