Climate Change In South Africa Research Articles

Threshold Effect of Trade on Climate Change in South Africa

The relationship between trade and climate change is not a simple linear relationship. In this paper, using the threshold regression model, we estimated the effect of trade on climate change in South Africa. The paper applied the LM test to examine the nonlinear inference approach to test whether nonlinearity existed and if the threshold model was relevant to the study. The results show that when energy use is set as the threshold variable, the relationship between trade and climate change measured as methane is U-shaped. Also, in other models of GHG as climate change indicators, the results show that the effect of trade on climate change is not dynamic. This result supports the idea that high and low trade effects may have different impacts on climate change indicators. It is, therefore, recommended that all exporters in South Africa resort to more innovative environmental mechanisms to reduce the contribution to climate. The suggestion for future studies is to consider exports of different sectors to climate change. This approach will avoid the generalization of exporting firms as the worst emitters.

The Judge-Made ‘Duty’ to Consider Climate Change in South Africa

Abstract Environmental legislation in South Africa does not explicitly require that the executive branch consider climate change in environmental decision-making. Yet, in a handful of climate cases, the executive has been found to have acted unlawfully (and thus unconstitutionally) by failing to do so. We argue that the case law has implicitly introduced a ‘duty’ to consider climate change mitigation and adaptation issues. The precedent set entails that in order to act lawfully as required by the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, 1996, decision-makers must take climate change into account in various contexts. This article describes the role of the judiciary within South Africa’s transformative constitutional regime, and the interpretive approach they are mandated to adopt. The interpretive approach is a feature of South Africa’s normative conceptualization of the separation of powers. We then describe how, in the exercise of this role, the ‘duty’ to consider climate change has emerged and evolved through three instances of climate litigation in the High Courts, and one before the Water Tribunal. We conclude that the power of judiciary in South Africa to respond to the myriad human rights and justice implications of the climate crisis derives not only from constitutionally entrenched human rights. Equally important are the mechanisms within the broader transformative architecture of the constitutional order. By making this modest point, we hope to deepen the understanding of the utility of human rights in climate litigation in the Global South.

Knowledge management for climate change in South Africa: A proposed strategy

This article investigates knowledge management for climate change in South Africa and proposes a strategy for knowledge management for climate change. The economic, political, social and ecological dimensions of climate change are predicted to pose a threat to the country’s National Development Plan and sustainable development. Given the growing emphasis on knowledge management for sustainable development and the importance of knowledge in the adaptive capacity and mitigation of climate change, knowledge management has been a central response strategy to climate change by various government and non-government agencies across the globe. The effects of climate change and the lack of focus on knowledge management for climate change in South Africa makes this an important topic for investigation. A systematic literature search and content analysis of relevant textbooks, articles, policy strategies, frameworks and legislation on knowledge management and climate change was conducted. Climate change, knowledge management and strategies were the keywords that were interrogated in the Scopus, ProQuest, EBSCO, Science Direct, Emerald, Elsevier, Taylor and Francis, Springer, Wiley and Inderscience databases to ensure comprehensive coverage. The retrieved articles were evaluated for eligibility. After removing 2900 irrelevant duplicate entries that did not entirely address the study’s scope, a descriptive synthesis of the 100 pertinent articles was completed. A strategy for knowledge management for climate change that calls for establishing a Knowledge Management Centre for Climate was proposed.

A Review of Rural Communities’ Vulnerability to Climate Change: The Case of Limpopo Province in South Africa

Climate change threatens the livelihood of rural communities that depend on climate-sensitive resources. The risks and consequences of climate change, to which rural areas are especially susceptible, are discussed in this review. The review summarizes previous studies on rural communities' susceptibility to the impacts of changing climatic conditions. Previous studies on climate change in South Africa's Limpopo Province provide the information used in this review. The findings indicate that rural communities are vulnerable to rising temperatures and unpredictable precipitation. The communities are exposed to higher temperatures, less rainfall, and intermittent drought. Subsistence agricultural and livestock production and water supplies are two examples of climate-dependent livelihood resources vulnerable to weather variability and change. These resulted in food insecurity and water scarcity in many rural areas. This review helps fill a gap in understanding the importance of assessing the vulnerability of rural communities with climate-dependent livelihood resources. The study recommends detailed community-based adaptation measures to counteract the detrimental effects of climatic stresses on people's means of subsistence. Adaptation policies to climate change could be strengthened by incorporating indigenous adaptation techniques and community voices into response efforts.

Projecting the effect of climate change on planting date and cultivar choice for South African dryland maize production

The anticipated climate change in South Africa is of great concern as Southern Africa appears to be warming at twice that of the global average, limiting maize production in the country and threatening food security in the region. The formulation of effective adaptation measures calls for understanding how projected changes in temperature, precipitation, and climate extremes might become misaligned with the critical maize developmental stages, which are likely to impact crop development. We conducted an analysis of the climate change impacts for dryland maize phenology in Bloemfontein and Lichtenburg, which represent major maize growing regions of South Africa. The climate projections generated by six Global Climate Models under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 were used. Analyses were performed for four representative planting dates: November 15 (early), December 15 (optimal), January 15 (late), and February 5 (very late). Days to maturity decreased (by approx. 5-10 days) as years progressed from baseline period (1991-2020) to the far future period (2051-2080), at both locations with higher rates projected under RCP 8.5. The results suggest a longer summer season with receding freeze dates in these regions and might provide additional flexibility for adaptive strategies. At the optimal planting dates, future climate will likely affect both vegetative and reproductive stages of maize leading to the decrease in the days to maturity. A major factor affecting maize productivity is extreme temperature, with the number of days above 35 °C expected to increase 20–30% at the optimal planting date as climate changes progresses, which will likely limit grain filling and yield. Exploring maize phenology in the future at later planting dates revealed a decrease in days to maturity trending towards the optimal number of days required for each cultivar (100–110 days) in both regions. This coupled with the projected receding freeze date at these planting dates under future climates suggests there may be opportunities to shift planting to later dates in the region.

Application of the disaster management cycle and climate change: Studying flood disasters in South Africa

The devastating floods in the Global South have been attributed to climate change. Furthermore, governmental agencies have been unable to effectively apply the Disaster Management Cycle (DMC) before, during and after disasters. This paper addresses this gap by analysing the application of the DMC in preparation for, and in response to, flood disasters in two South African coastal provinces (namely, the Eastern Cape [EC] and KwaZulu-Natal [KZN]). The paper also assesses the association between the devastating flood disasters of April 2022 and climate change. In order to gather data for this paper, face-to-face interviews were conducted with 12 stakeholders (including governmental officials, academics, researchers, and officials of non-profit organisations [NPOs]). A thematic analysis was then conducted to categorise and code the collected data. Patterns, trends, and themes that emerged from the data resulted in findings that revealed that Government failed to fully and effectively applied the DMC before, during, and in the aftermath of the 2022 flood disasters. The findings also revealed that Government had failed to incorporate climate change in the DMC and respond proactively to floods. The respondents rejected the climate change rhetoric of various stakeholders, however, and instead continue to regard a cut-off low as the cause of the April 2022 floods. These respondents conceded, however, that climate change and other factors may have contributed to the disaster. Since neither a DMC nor climate change in the Global South have previously been investigated, this paper significantly contributes to knowledge on climate change in South Africa.

African-initiated churches and environmental care in Limpopo, South Africa: A missional enquiry

Climate change in South Africa is increasingly threatening the most vulnerable populations in rural areas of the country, such as the Limpopo province. Religious communities could be important actors in South Africa, and their role in sustainable development could be critical. Research on the capacities of religious communities for climate change adaptation is vital for reaching the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals 13, 14 and 15. This article drew on empirical research focusing on adaptive practices to climate change. It asked the following question: how do African Independent and Pentecostal churches located in the province of Limpopo relate to climate change in their communal and individual activities? To answer this question, qualitative semistructured individual interviews, group interviews and results from focus groups were used for data collection. The research learned that eco-theology is not the most prominent topic in the majority of the participants’ congregations and their communal activities. However, all the participants had noticed the effects of climate change in their immediate surroundings. As a consequence, these individuals took care of their surrounding environments. Focus groups were formed with the hope of consolidating individual efforts into a collective toolkit. This article concluded that the majority of the research participants are not knowledgeable about climate change as a concept. However, they are cognisant of the impact climate change has on them.Intradisciplinary and/or interdisciplinary implications: This article was practical theology research. It was strengthened by research findings from agricultural sciences, ecology, development sciences, missiology and intercultural theology to propose an eco-theology from below based on individual adaptive measures to climate change.

Social housing as a catalyst towards net-zero carbon building in the mitigation of climate change in South Africa

Since low-income and social housing are among the most vulnerable built environments to climate change, this article evaluates the energy performance of social housing in the context of enabling net-zero carbon social housing in South Africa (SA). It seeks to investigate how improved and conscious energy-efficient design in the context of social housing contributes toward a climate change mitigation response in SA. The article analyses energy use and indoor comfort, based on ASHRAE 55-2004 Standard, of two social housing case studies to review the potential of the social housing sector to contribute to the national climate mitigating agenda. The findings highlight that the housing provision itself is not an adequate response, but that bio-climatic design solutions with appropriate spatial and material choices, along with efficient envelope articulation, play a critical role in lowering energy use and improving user comfort. There is, however, a need to challenge the growing advent of (energy-) inefficient and carbon-intensive social housing in SA and simultaneously address the parallel crisis of homelessness, to enable a sustainable future for the built environment.

Climate change in South Africa: Risks and opportunities for climate-resilient development in the IPCC Sixth Assessment WGII Report

Climate change in South Africa: Risks and opportunities for climate-resilient development in the IPCC Sixth Assessment WGII Report

Sorghum as a household food and livelihood security crop under climate change in South Africa: A review

Extreme events, declining rainfall and increasing temperatures under climate change threaten smallholder households’ food and livelihoods security. The potential of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor [L.] Moench) to contribute to food security and livelihoods of smallholders in South Africa has not been realised, despite its resilience to heat and drought, due to its marginalisation in research, breeding, the scale of production, and policy support. Consequently, to reduce vulnerability and boost sorghum’s position as a key climate change adaptation crop, in this review we examined some biophysical, socio-economic, socio-cultural and institutional barriers that constrain its production and performance on smallholder farms in South Africa. We further suggest pertinent issues to be addressed to improve production and productivity on smallholder farms. Increasing awareness, policy development and support, and capacitation of extension services, as well as improving market access, agronomic and cultural practices, and availability of more locally adapted sorghum varieties are requisite factors in addressing the prevailing constraints limiting sorghum production. Furthermore, tailored and site-specific studies at farm and landscape level are imperative for informed management and decision support. Thus, an integrated and multidisciplinary approach is key in fostering significant improvement in sorghum production and performance in smallholder systems in South Africa to reduce climate change vulnerability. Significance: Sorghum has the potential to bolster food and livelihoods of smallholder farmers in South Africa. Socio-economic, socio-cultural and biophysical challenges limit sorghum production and performance in South Africa. An integrated and multidisciplinary approach is required to optimise the opportunities to improve sorghum production and performance in South Africa.

Forecasting the Economic Growth Impacts of Climate Change in South Africa in the 2030 and 2050 Horizons

In this paper, we estimate the effects of climate change by means of the systems generalised method of moments (System GMM) using panel data across South African municipalities from 1993 to 2016. We adapt the estimates to the municipal economic structures to forecast losses at the municipal level for the 2030 and 2050 horizons. The projections show that, relative to the 1995–2000 levels, South Africa’s economy would lose about 1.82 billion United States dollars (USD) on average due to climate change following the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of 4.5 Wm−2 radiative forcing scenario, and USD 2.306 billion following the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario by 2030. By 2050, the losses will be USD 1.9 billion and USD 2.48 billion, respectively. The results vary across municipalities depending on geographic location and sectors. Natural resources and primary sectors are the most impacted, while the economic losses are more than the gains in almost all municipalities in South Africa. This has a significant bearing on sustainable poverty reduction in South Africa through pro-poor industrialisation. The implication of the findings is discussed in the paper’s conclusion.

Household vulnerability to climate change in South Africa: A multilevel regression model

ABSTRACT This study measures the vulnerability of households to food insecurity by measuring the risk or threat posed by climate change. This is conducted using multilevel or hierarchal regression, an extension of the “Three Stage Least Squares” model. Unlike the standard ordinary least squares regression model, this model can produce estimates of different hierarchal levels and produce unbiased reliable standard errors. With a sample size of 18,444 households nested within nine provinces, the findings show that climate change is a reality in South Africa, and it poses serious threats that expose households to future food consumption inadequacies. This study also offers a deeper understanding of the different sources of vulnerability among these households. Poverty or structural-induced vulnerability emerged as the main source of vulnerability for South African households. Climate change-induced vulnerabilities were also found to be prevalent and detrimental in rural areas with Limpopo and Eastern Cape being the most vulnerable provinces.

Addressing the challenges of water-energy-food nexus programme in the context of sustainable development and climate change in South Africa

Abstract The fast-growing pace of the world's population and the increasing pressure exerted on global life supporting natural systems due to amplified natural resource use and consumption coupled with the impacts of climate change necessitates the development of innovative technologies and comprehensive policy frameworks to address the looming crisis in the water, energy and food nexus. As the 30th driest country globally, South Africa has embarked on and enacted a pro-water-energy and food nexus policy which aims to create an understanding of the interdependencies of the three components and their influence on socio-economic growth and national development in the face of climate change-induced environmental changes. While these policies and programmes appear to have a sound theoretical basis, their implementation has been hindered by a number of structural and systemic challenges. Using methods inspired by the tradition of participatory research, this paper discusses the strengths and weaknesses of the water-energy-food policy framework in South Africa within the context of its implementation in order to achieve water, energy and food security. The findings of this paper revealed that while some level of progress has been attained to improve the livelihoods of the population using the nexus ecosystem, the broader goal of the concept has failed to materialise due to poor execution of the programme, which is exacerbated by lack of synergies, and establishment of collaborations and partnerships among the relevant actors mandated with the management of the three components and inadequate investment. This paper recommends a broader and coordinated approach to implementing the water-energy-food nexus programme with a broader objective of sustainable development goals (SDGs) framework.

‘Empowering youth as change agents for climate change in South Africa’: challenges, caveats and course corrections

ABSTRACT Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change (CC), warming at ‘double the global average rate’. The southern African region is already a CC hotspot with climate variability exposing stark societal and biophysical ecosystem vulnerabilities. South African and southern African youth are beginning to claim their place at various CC negotiation tables adding to the voices of government and various civil society groups. In this paper, written by a group of youth activists, civil society organisation leaders, educators and climate scientists, we track the journey that a group of young change-makers and local government officials (in the age range 15–24) have taken in securing a seat at the policy table. The challenges, caveats and course corrections that have been taken in the Johannesburg Youth Climate Action Plan (YCAP) process and the wider country, are interrogated. This YCAP Johannesburg experiment provides a useful learning exercise for subsequent CC policy and practice engagements in the country and elsewhere.

Healthcare and Climate Change: A South African Health Professionals’ Perspective

Abstract Background: Climate change is currently the most significant threat to human health. Middle- and lower-income countries are at particular risk, placing South Africa at risk. To date research analysing healthcare workers’ perspectives on climate change has a unitary bias towards the views of developed and high-income nations. The aim of this study was to assess healthcare professionals’ knowledge and perspectives on climate change in South Africa and thereby contribute to improving their education regarding climate change and health. Methods: We conducted a national survey of healthcare professionals (doctors, nurses, medical students, allied health professionals) assessing views on several aspects related to climate change and health. The survey included overall views on climate change, perceptions of climate change and health as well as on healthcare systems and climate change. Results: The majority of the participants in the survey were doctors, predominantly from the public sector. The three health categories which most concerned participants were malnutrition/foodborne diseases, waterborne diseases/other water related health concerns and morbidity and mortality related to extreme weather events. Some of the health areas of less concern were non-communicable diseases and mental health. Additionally, 81% of participants were not aware of how their health facility was adapting to climate change. Conclusion: South African healthcare workers demonstrate a reasonable knowledge regarding climate change and the effects it will have on healthcare, a view similar to those of health professionals in high income countries. Hopefully, through improvements in environmental health education and increasing awareness and understanding amongst healthcare workers, there will be greater advocacy and transformation of our healthcare systems.

South Africa's Journey to Climate Change Regulation: Earthlife Africa Johannesburg v Minister of Environmental Affairs 2017 2 All SA 519 (GP)

Concerns over climate change are increasingly reaching an urgent level. Many countries have begun focusing their efforts on mitigating its devastating impact. At the same time countries need to ensure their economic growth and development, thus calling for greater energy usage leading to increased greenhouse gas emissions. As the environment struggles to adapt to the rapid changes brought about by climate change, the effects are felt by the most vulnerable of the world's population. Reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have outlined the reasons and the effects of climate change providing actions required to mitigate these effects. Unfortunately developing countries, including South Africa, are the most affected. The current energy system in the country is primarily based on fossil fuels, which emit the greatest amount of greenhouse gases. To ensure that South Africa mitigates the impact, government needs to safeguard and promote sustainable development. To do this South Africa should weigh its energy mix in relation to the environment and the wellbeing of its citizens. A comprehensive and robust regulatory framework on climate change is required thus ensuring the achievement of South Africa's developmental goals well into the future and ensuring participation in the global effort against climate change. Earthlife Africa Johannesburg v Minister of Environmental Affairs 2017 2 All SA 519 (GP) signifies a good start towards the effective regulation of climate change in South Africa.

Beyond Tokenism: The “Born Frees” and Climate Change in South Africa

Climate change and youth participation are emerging as important clarion calls today. Indeed, very few individuals will possibly counter a call for the involvement of young people in decisions and actions which (in)directly affect their lives. Presently, some of the greatest social problems faced by young South Africans are COVID-19, employment, and climate change. These challenges require the active participation of young people—locally known as the “born frees”—in the construction and operationalization of interventions, especially in light of the insufficient (sub)national response. That being said, policymakers often adopt top-down over bottom-up approaches, with the young generation often excluded or at best given a tokenistic role in climate decision-making processes. Therefore, this paper suggests some new ways of conceptualizing youth agency and brings to light how the born frees could efficiently take part or have a say in negotiating the path to climate adaptation, resilience, and mitigation. By drawing from the existing literature, the paper concludes that effective engagement with youth is essential in empowering them to key stakeholders or partners in adapting and/or mitigating climate change.

Building resilience to climate change in vulnerable communities: A case study of uMkhanyakude district municipality

Climate change in South Africa remains an issue of socio-economic and environmental concern. An increase in frequency and intensity of climatic events pose significant threats to biophysical and socio-economic aspects, namely food security, water resources, agriculture, biodiversity, tourism, and poverty. In order to counteract the socio-economic and environmental concerns pertaining to issues of climate change, emergent insights on climate change strategies suggest that building resilience in human and environmental systems is an ideal way of combating dynamic environmental conditions and future uncertainties. Using the qualitative secondary data approach, this article evaluates whether vulnerable communities in uMkhanyakude District Municipality can become resilient to the implications of climate change. UMkhanyakude District Municipality is predominantly rural and one of the most impoverished districts in KwaZulu-Natal, with the majority of socially and economically marginalised individuals and households experiencing more severe impacts as a result of climate change compared to those in urban areas. Data was analysed using content analysis and a concise summary of the biophysical and socio-economic aspects is presented. This research suggests that building resilience to climate change is possible when bottom-up, proactive and systematic measures are taken to manage vulnerable areas such as those in uMkhanyakude District Municipality. It recommends that social impact assessments (SIA) be conducted to assist in terms of assessing social consequences that are likely to follow from policy actions.

Demographic responses of forest-utilizing bats to past climate change in South Africa

AbstractHistorical forest contractions may have restricted the distributions of forest-utilizing fauna while providing opportunities for range expansions for open-habitat species. We aimed to test if habitat associations have played an important role in determining population genetic structure and demographic responses of six bats to oscillations in forest extent since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We hypothesized that forest-associated species would display high levels of population structure and past population contractions as their distribution is dependent on fragmented forests. By contrast, habitat generalists would demonstrate low geographical structuring and historical population stability as suitable habitats are widely available. We used mitochondrial DNA to generate genetic diversity and population structure metrics of three forest-associated species and three habitat generalists in South Africa. Neutrality tests and Bayesian skyline plots were used to investigate demographic histories. A forest habitat association did not inform the population genetics of the study species. Rather, species-specific traits of roosting requirements, philopatry to the natal range and dispersal ability informed the observed structure. All species demonstrated population expansions during the Pleistocene, with no apparent decline during the LGM. It appears that the lower climate change footprint and refuge-status of eastern South Africa prevented population declines of insectivorous bats during the LGM.

Windbreaks as part of climate-smart landscapes reduce evapotranspiration in vineyards, Western Cape Province, South Africa

Under the conditions of climate change in South Africa, ecological and technical measures are needed to reduce the water consumption of irrigated crops. Windbreak hedges are long-rated systems in agriculture that significantly reduce wind speed. Their possibilities to reduce evapotranspiration and water demand are being investigated at a vineyard in the Western Cape Province, South Africa. Detailed measurements of meteorological parameters relevant for the computation of reference and crop-specific evapotranspiration following the FAO 56 approaches within a vineyard in the Western Cape Province of South Africa have shown the beneficial effect of an existing hedgerow consisting of 6 m high poplars (Populus simonii (Carrière) Wesm.). With reference to a control station in the open field, the mean wind speed in a position about 18 m from the hedgerow at canopy level (2 m) was reduced by 27.6% over the entire year and by 39.2% over the summer growing season. This effect leads to a parallel reduction of reference evapotranspiration of 15.5% during the whole year and of 18.4% over the growing season. When applying empirical crop-specific K<sub>c</sub> values for well-irrigated grapes, the reduction of evapotranspiration is 18.8% over the summer growth period. The introduced tree shelterbelts are a suitable eco-engineering approach to reduce water consumption and to enhance water saving in vineyards.