Climate Change In Germany Research Articles

Impact of climate change on waterborne infections and intoxications.

Progressive climate change holds the potential for increasing human health risks from waterborne infections and intoxications, e. g. through an increase in pathogen concentrations in water bodies, through the establishment of new pathogens or through possible changes in pathogen properties. This paper presents some examples of potential impacts of climate change in Germany. Non-cholera Vibrio occur naturally in seawater, but can proliferate significantly in shallow water at elevated temperatures. In the case of Legionella, climate change could lead to temporary or longer-term increased incidences of legionellosis due to the combination of warm and wet weather. Higher temperatures in piped cold water or lower temperatures in piped hot water may also create conditions conducive to higher Legionella concentrations. In nutrient-rich water bodies, increased concentrations of toxigenic cyanobacteria may occur as temperatures rise. Heavy rainfall following storms or prolonged periods of heat and drought can lead to increased levels of human pathogenic viruses being washed into water bodies. Rising temperatures also pose a potential threat to human health through pathogens causing mycoses and facultatively pathogenic micro-organisms: increased infection rates with non-tuberculous mycobacteria or fungi have been documented after extreme weather events.

Analysing spatial patterns of climate change: Climate clusters, hotspots and analogues to support climate risk assessment and communication in Germany

The spatial visualization of current and future climate conditions is one key component for assessing related impacts and risks in a given territory. A suitable combination of statistical methods and visualisation techniques allows the creation of outputs that support the interpretation and understanding as well as communication of the complex climate analysis to a wider target audience. The present paper describes the adopted approaches to portray information about climate change in Germany until the end of the 21st century in meaningful maps with the aim to communicate it to the public as well as decision makers. In particular, the conducted analyses focused on the assessment of climate regions, climate hotspots and climate analogues. The maps showing the resulting spatial patterns 1) divide the country in seven climate clusters, 2) reveal different hotspot areas of climate change in terms of key indicators for the middle and the end of the century and 3) provide current and future climate shifts of German cities to analogue regions in Europe. Results are accompanied with recommendations and interpretation aids supporting the correct use for practical applications and communication purposes. The final map products resulting from these analyses and published in the frame of the Climate Impact and Risk Assessment for Germany 2021 were taken up by different national media outlets (print and audio), education experts as well as stakeholders, showing benefits and limitations of the visualisation choices.

Coalitions and counter-coalitions in online contestation: An analysis of the German and British climate change debate

We seek to understand the role of the Internet in policy monopolies characterized by a dominant coalition in traditional political venues. In these settings, we identify coalitions and counter-coalitions on the Web and ask how these coalitions differ resource-wise and where these differences come from. To do so, we combine link tracing and quantitative content analysis in the field of climate change in Germany and the United Kingdom. Our results show that online contestation is indeed structured by competing coalitions of climate advocates and skeptics. Moreover, the counter-coalitions of climate skeptics turn out to be the true winners of online communication: they have not only incorporated conservative media as their allies, but also managed to make themselves more visible than climate advocates. This visibility stems from their own link setting activity, which makes climate advocates’ passive online strategy of just ignoring the skeptical camp ineffective.

Overcoming Language Barriers: Assessing the Potential of Machine Translation and Topic Modeling for the Comparative Analysis of Multilingual Text Corpora

ABSTRACTThis study assesses the potential of topic models coupled with machine translation for comparative communication research across language barriers. From a methodological point of view, the robustness of a combined approach is examined. For this purpose the results of different machine translation services (Google Translate vs. DeepL) as well as methods (full-text vs. term-by-term) are compared. From a substantive point of view, the integratability of the approach into comparative study designs is tested. For this, the online discourses about climate change in Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States are compared. First, the results show that the approach is relatively robust and second, that integration in comparative study designs is not a problem. It is concluded that this as well as the relatively moderate costs in terms of time and money makes the strategy to couple topic models with machine translation a valuable addition to the toolbox of comparative communication researchers.

Brief Communication: An update of the article "Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions – a case study for Germany"

Abstract. In our first study on possible flood damages under climate change in Germany, we reported that a considerable increase in flood-related losses can be expected in a future warmer climate. However, the general significance of the study was limited by the fact that outcome of only one global climate model (GCM) was used as a large-scale climate driver, while many studies report that GCMs are often the largest source of uncertainty in impact modelling. Here we show that a much broader set of global and regional climate model combinations as climate drivers show trends which are in line with the original results and even give a stronger increase of damages.

Different actors, different factors? A comparison of the news factor orientation between newspaper journalists and civil-society actors

AbstractNews factors can be conceptualized as general relevance indicators guiding the attention of all humans. However, that doesn’t mean that they are the only factors influencing selection processes or that all news factors have the same importance across different actor types. Within the concept of news factors it is still unclear to what degree those news factors also apply to the communication outside of traditional mass media. We therefore ask whether and how actors with varying degrees of professionalization employ news factors in their communication differently. To answer our research question, we conducted a quantitative content analysis and compared the coverage in traditional newspapers with the communication of civil society actors with varying degrees of professionalization. We analyzed the relevance of news factors within the presentation of a specific issue, namely climate change in Germany. Our results show that news factors are – at least partly – also applied by non-journalist actors. The mass media and the more professionalized civil society actors do not apply news factors more strongly to their communication than do non-professionalized civil society actors. Instead, we find that different actors focus on different news factors.

Integrated assessment for vulnerability to climate change in Germany - a brief overview of methodology and results

Within the scope of the German Adaptation Strategy (DAS), a standardized, cross-sector assessment of current and future climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for Germany was carried out from 2011to 2015. For this assessment, an institutional Vulnerability Network was established, composed of sixteen Federal agencies and institutes. Supported by a scientific consortium, the Vulnerability Network developed a collaborative scientific concept for an integrative and spatially explicit assessment. For each pre-defined action field, impact chains were generated as the basis for the selection, prioritization and assessment of indicators. Exposure, sensitivities and adaptive capacities were described by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches, leading to a variety of products at different conceptual levels of aggregation. This paper introduces the methodology pursued for the assessment and then presents some examples illustrating the variety of outcomes produced. The conclusions drawn are based on critical procedural and methodological reflection.

A consensus based vulnerability assessment to climate change in Germany

Purpose– This paper aims to propose a collaborative approach toward an integrated vulnerability assessment to climate change in Germany that attempts to bridge the gap between scientific output and policy demand.Design/methodology/approach– Conceptually, the approach follows the definition of vulnerability as used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but it has modified this basic concept. It clearly distinguishes between three time slices (presence, near and remote future) not only regarding the change in the climatic conditions but also socio-economic development trends.Findings– The paper concentrates on the selected methodological framework, the collaborative research design and those preliminary results of the nationwide vulnerability assessment that are transferable to other settings.Practical implications– A Vulnerability Network (“Netzwerk Vulnerabilitaet”) emerged from an applied research project commissioned under the Adaptation Action Plan of the German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change by the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety and the Federal Environment Agency. The assessment serves as evidence basis for the implementation of the German Adaptation Strategy. Thus, all relevant federal authorities and agencies are represented in the Vulnerability Network.Originality/value– The approach is the first really integrative vulnerability assessment for the whole Germany, as it considers not only 16 sectors but also interconnections between these sectors and cumulative effects for three different time slices. Moreover, the normative component of the assessment was clearly separated from the analytic one. The Vulnerability Network as a whole has been responsible for all normative decisions to be taken during the assessment procedure thus ensuring a wide understanding and acceptance of commonly achieved results.

Forestry professionals’ perceptions of climate change, impacts and adaptation strategies for forests in south-west Germany

Forestry professionals’ perceptions of the risks and uncertainties associated with climate change were investigated in a questionnaire survey in south-west Germany. The respondents were employed in forestry in either public or private forests or working for state authorities. They were specifically asked about the related impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems, adaptive forest management and the potential of forestry to mitigate climate change. A factor analysis of the responses revealed significant variables explaining the major part of the variance and the key variable groups were identified in a canonical analysis. The majority of respondents (72 %) said they were under-informed, but most (83 %) view climate change as a reality, human-caused, and a significant risk. These forestry professionals were particularly concerned about extreme hazards, water scarcity, and changes in climatic zones. They generally said the potential of forestry to mitigate climate change is low, and saw few realistic measures like increased harvesting to substitute fossil fuels and energy-intensive materials for mitigation. Despite the uncertainty involved, adaptation strategies like using better-adapted tree species and provenances were mainly perceived as helpful, and tools such as spatially-explicit maps with recommendations for adapted species and indices of biotic and abiotic risks as important. The forestry professionals reported obtaining their information about climate change from advanced forestry training, the media, and scientific literature. The findings of the study are discussed in the light of the ongoing debate on climate change in Germany and recommendations made, including periodically checking and improving forestry professionals’ knowledge about climate change.

Spiral of silence online: How online communication affects opinion climate perception and opinion expression regarding the climate change debate

This study tests the spiral of silence theory under conditions of online communication. It is argued that a preference for user-generated content may result in different perceptions of the opinion climate than a preference for mass media. This may also affect willingness to speak out in public. This study tested the effects of selective exposure to information regarding climate change in Germany. The individual media diets were derived from online diaries and content analyses. The findings show no support for the spiral of silence theory. Individuals who see themselves in the minority were even more likely to express their opinions.

Increasing bioenergy production on arable land: Does the regional and local climate respond? Germany as a case study

The extent and magnitude of land cover change effect on local and regional future climate during the vegetation period due to different forms of bioenergy plants are quantified for extreme temperatures and energy fluxes. Furthermore, we vary the spatial extent of plant allocation on arable land and simulate alternative availability of transpiration water to mimic both rainfed agriculture and irrigation. We perform climate simulations down to 1 km scale for 1970-1975 C20 and 2070-2075 A1B over Germany with Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling in Climate Mode. Here an impact analysis indicates a strong local influence due to land cover changes. The regional effect is decreased by two thirds of the magnitude of the local-scale impact. The changes are largest locally for irrigated poplar with decreasing maximum temperatures by 1 ◦ C in summer months and increasing specific humidity by 0.15 g kg −1 . The increased evapotranspiration may result in more precipitation. The increase of surface radiative fluxes Rnet due to changes in latent and sensible heat is estimated by 5 W m −2 locally. Moreover, increases in the surface latent heat flux cause strong local evaporative cooling in the summer months, whereas the associated regional cooling effect is pronounced by increases in cloud cover. The changes on a regional scale are marginal and not significant. Increasing bioenergy production on arable land may result in local temperature changes but not in substantial regional climate change in Germany. We show the effect of agricultural practices during climate transitions in spring and fall.

From integration to impact – a new investment climate for Germany's SRI landscape

For a long time Germany has been an underperformer in Socially/Sustainable and Responsible Investment (SRI) which are typically based on mutual investment funds. As many Cooperative and Savings Banks now very successfully offer investments into bio energy or solar projects/companies (among others), SRI seems to stand at the edge of a relaunch. This paper examines the current situation and trends regarding the German market of SRI in the field of climate protection funds, the availability of its products and their perception by private retail investors. As a starting point for further empirical research, the paper describes the derivation of a research question that consists of an analysis of German retail investors' preferences for climate change related investments in mutual funds. Along with this, we describe the research methodology with which we intend to find out how the financial market in Germany and its financial institutions can ease the change in energy policy and climate change in Germany when designing climate protection fund products that match the preferences of the investors.

A Study on the Energy Policy to Respond to the Climate Change in Germany (II)

A Study on the Energy Policy to Respond to the Climate Change in Germany (II)

Monitoring of climate change in Germany – data, products and services of Germany's National Climate Data Centre

Abstract. Germany's national meteorological service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD) is the responsible authority for monitoring climate change in Germany. To fulfill this task it operates the National Climate Data Centre ("Nationales KlimaDatenZentrum, NKDZ"). The historical and current instrumental measurements and visual observations of DWD's station network are archived, quality-controlled and used to provide aggregated products, as for example daily and monthly means or climate normals. Gridded data are generated and used to derive time series of national and regional averages. Phenological observations and radiosonde data are also part of the data base. In recent years, additional historical data have been digitized to expand the data base. The products are used for informing the public, e.g. as an element of the German climate atlas (http://www.deutscher-klimaatlas.de). One major recent activity was the provision of information for the new climatological reference interval 1981–2010 and an updated climatological analysis based on the newly digitized data.

The politics of climate change in Germany: ambition versus lobby power

In 30 years of climate policy in Germany, a high level of declared ambition has coexisted with an eclectic mix of climate policy measures. Well‐organized lobbies were either exempt from policy instruments such as the energy tax or directly benefitted from them, as in the case of the renewable feed‐in tariff or windfall profits from free allocation of emissions allowances. As a result, German emissions mitigation is much more costly than it would have to be. Moreover, the challenges because of the imminent phase‐out of nuclear power are increasing due to failures in a number of relevant policy fields such as offshore wind, grid reinforcement, and carbon capture and storage (CCS). WIREs Clim Change 2013, 4:315–320. doi: 10.1002/wcc.224This article is categorized under: The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Policies, Instruments, Lifestyles, Behavior Policy and Governance > National Climate Change Policy

Erratum to: Winter storm- and summer thunderstorm-related loss events with regard to climate change in Germany

Erratum to: Winter storm- and summer thunderstorm-related loss events with regard to climate change in Germany

A Study on the Energy Policy to Respond to the Climate Change in Germany (I)

A Study on the Energy Policy to Respond to the Climate Change in Germany (I)

Winter storm- and summer thunderstorm-related loss events with regard to climate change in Germany

The development of winter storm- and summer thunderstorm-related loss events within the next decades in Germany was investigated with regard to change in frequency and intensity caused by climate changes. As a first step, observed meteorological data were connected with insurance data on a statistical basis. A regional climate model was then used to estimate future climate development. Using the statistical relations between meteorological and insurance data, the development of climate-driven damages was calculated. Results show that an increase of loss events can be expected within the next decades. These results show loss ratios shifting from higher return periods to smaller ones. In progressive decades, all these loss events become regionally more differentiated.

Climate change impacts on German cities and actions for preserving quality of life

Also German cities -as many other cities worldwide- will be affected by impacts of climate change. Starting from the German Adaptation Strategy to climate change, the paper presents a short literature review on impacts of climate change and on fields of action for German municipalities and urban planners to adapt to it. The literature review shows that main negative impacts of climate change in Germany are due to rising temperatures and cities will also need to cope with altered precipitation regimes. But also positive impacts such as reduced heating costs are reported. Additionally, the paper highlights a second phenomenon, which also causes specific demands for urban planners regarding human health and quality of life in German cities: demographic change. Altering demographic patterns within the society will lead to altered demands for healthy living conditions. Moreover, findings from the literature show that specific groups of the society - such as the elderly - are especially vulnerable towards impacts of climate change. A concrete sensitivity towards overheating or bad air is reported. Both phenomena may simultaneously impact on German urban structures and will demand closer attention now and in the future. Consequently, specific fields of action to adapt to climate change will be presented highlighting their possible contribution sustaining quality of life in cities.

Modeling the impact of climate change in Germany with biosphere models for long-term safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories

Biosphere models are used to evaluate the exposure of populations to radionuclides from a deep geological repository. Since the time frame for assessments of long-time disposal safety is 1 million years, potential future climate changes need to be accounted for. Potential future climate conditions were defined for northern Germany according to model results from the BIOCLIM project. Nine present day reference climate regions were defined to cover those future climate conditions. A biosphere model was developed according to the BIOMASS methodology of the IAEA and model parameters were adjusted to the conditions at the reference climate regions. The model includes exposure pathways common to those reference climate regions in a stylized biosphere and relevant to the exposure of a hypothetical self-sustaining population at the site of potential radionuclide contamination from a deep geological repository. The end points of the model are Biosphere Dose Conversion factors (BDCF) for a range of radionuclides and scenarios normalized for a constant radionuclide concentration in near-surface groundwater. Model results suggest an increased exposure of in dry climate regions with a high impact of drinking water consumption rates and the amount of irrigation water used for agriculture.