Climate Change Adaptation Measures Research Articles

Quantifying and communicating uncertain climate change hazards in participatory climate change adaptation processes

Abstract. Participatory processes for identifying local climate change adaptation measures have to be performed worldwide. As these processes require information about context-specific climate change hazards, we show in this study how to quantify climate change hazards with their uncertainties in regions all around the globe and how to best communicate the potential hazards with their uncertainties in order to identify local climate change adaptation strategies. In a participatory process on water-related adaptation in a biosphere reserve in Germany, we used the freely available output of a multi-model ensemble provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) initiative, which provides global coverage, to quantify the wide range of potential future changes in (ground)water resources. Our approach for quantifying the range of potential climate change hazards can be applied worldwide for local to regional study areas and also for adaptations in agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and biodiversity. We evaluated our approach to communicating uncertain local climate change hazards by means of questionnaires that the stakeholders in the participatory process and the audiences from the general public of two project result presentations answered. To support the stakeholders in participatory climate change adaptation processes, we propose the use of percentile boxes rather than boxplots for visualizing the range of potential future changes. This helps the stakeholders identify the future changes they wish to adapt to, depending on the problem (e.g., resource scarcity vs. resource excess) and their risk aversion. The general public is best informed by simple ensemble averages of potential future changes together with the model agreement on the sign of change. Using or adapting our quantification and communication approach, flexible climate change adaptation strategies can and should be developed worldwide in a participatory and transdisciplinary manner, involving stakeholders and scientists.

Targeting farmers’ heterogeneity to enrich climate change adaptation policy design: findings from northern Italy

With its scientifically proven effects and widespread acceptance, climate change stands as one of the most pressing and intricate challenges for society and economies. Farmers are on the frontline of managing climate change. Therefore, how they perceive and respond to climate change shapes their risk assessment and structures future resilience and adaptive capacity. Employing a bottom-up approach, we conducted 460 surveys randomly among farmers throughout the Lombardy region in northern Italy. A triple-loop approach considering climate change awareness, perceived impacts, and adaptation measures and barriers was implemented to characterize the potential heterogeneity of farmer behaviour and explore whether risk attitudes and adaptation actions differ between farmer profiles. We then profiled farmers through a clustering analysis. Four groups emerged, highlighting farmers’ adaptation preferences and risk attitudes: (1) cropping-adapted and isolated farmers, (2) cooperation-adapted and insecure farmers, (3) risk insurance-adapted and confident farmers, and (4) climate services-adapted and aware farmers. Although the groups vary in terms of farmers’ characterization and farming activities (e.g. young and highly educated vs. old and highly experienced farmers, rainfed vs. irrigated farms), similar patterns were observed regarding climate change awareness and perceived impacts—however, the contrast increased in terms of adaptation measures and barriers. Gaining a more comprehensive understanding of the diverse ways in which farmers assess risks and adapt can promote the transferability of bottom-up findings and inform the co-design of tailored and flexible adaptation instruments, minimizing the risk of maladaptation or ineffective transformation in the face of climate change.

The effects of climate extreme events on selected food crop yields in Sub-Saharan Africa

The agricultural sector is essential for economic growth. However, agricultural performance can be limited by factors such as climatic risks. This paper aims to analyse the effect of climate extreme events on selected food crop yield in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The study uses data from the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) database for maize, rice, and sorghum yields. Also, we used data obtained from the International Disaster Database of the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) for floods and droughts over the period 1990–2020. The data were analysed based on the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS). The results showed that climate extreme events negatively affected maize, rice and sorghum yields. Also, the findings showed that floods and droughts in past years negatively influence current yields of maize, rice and sorghum. Moreover, agricultural labour force, fertilizer and financial development are the main transmission channels through which floods and droughts can affect maize, rice and sorghum yields. The study concludes by recommending that policies aimed at promoting climate change adaptation measures as well as agricultural insurance could make the agriculture sector more resilient to climate extreme events and in turn that could improve agricultural productivity and reduce food insecurity.

Co-producing disaster-resilient urban settlements in Ghana: Case of Ahensan, Kumasi

The occurrence of disasters, specifically flooding, has intensified over the past two decades in African cities with devastating impacts on people and properties. In Ghana, cities are beset by weak community and urban planning capacities to contend with climate challenges; exacerbating the vulnerabilities of the urban poor. Given that the urban poor, mostly in informal settlements, are largely excluded from official climate change adaptation and resilience measures, involving them in co-producing disaster risk management interventions to build resilience remains crucial. Premised on six agency interviews and four focus group discussions of residents in Ahensan, Kumasi, the research examined efforts aimed at co-producing integrative disaster risk governance towards building resilience to disaster risks. The findings showed that the dominant disaster in the settlement was flooding. Consequently, there are flood disaster management plans designed to identify and reduce risks. However, these plans do not involve residents in their preparation; rather, they are largely involved in the implementation of the plans. This has resulted in the lack of ownership of these plans by residents and their unwillingness to participate in their implementation. This study concludes that to ensure the ownership of strategies for disaster management towards resilience, residents should be involved at every stage of the process - from plan preparation through to its implementation.

The dual approach to climate change adaptation in official development assistance

ABSTRACT A dual approach is an effective method for formulating climate change adaptation measures. It combines both a top-down approach, whereby plans are formulated based on climate change projections, and a bottom-up approach, in which plans are formulated based on the situation in the target region. I analyse Japan’s advanced measures and a development case in Timor-Leste, where some level of adaptation effectiveness is expected. In Timor-Leste, the inadequacy of scientific data makes the top-down approach difficult, but the bottom-up approach based on thorough field surveys can promote climate-resilient development which can be expected to have high adaptation effects in such circumstances. To achieve this, it is necessary to complement scientific data with available data, further strengthen the current system in which each actor thinks independently and works and collaborates with others, and train facilitators who can understand scientific data.

Exploring food system resilience to the global polycrisis in six Asian countries.

The world is currently in the midst of a global food crisis brought about and exacerbated by a series of mutually reinforcing shocks to food systems This study investigated the resilience of food systems in six Asian countries (Bangladesh, Kyrgyz Republic, Lao PDR, Pakistan, Philippines, and Sri Lanka) amidst the global 'polycrisis' caused by COVID-19, geopolitical conflicts, and climate change. Trend analyses were performed for 19 indicators sourced from global databases and World Food Programme national data, representing the four domains of food system resilience: exposure to shocks; resilience capacities and agro- and food diversity, resilience responses and strategies; and long-term resilience outcomes. The analysis revealed that all six countries experienced the effects of the 'polycrisis', leading to diverse impacts on exchange rates, with Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Lao PDR facing significant currency depreciation. While most countries increased crop production and decreased food imports during the crisis, government economic support during the pandemic varied widely. Resilience outcomes, including national food price inflation and the proportion of populations facing food insecurity, witnessed upward variations. Overall, countries with higher resilience capacities at the start of the 'polycrisis' showed less severe long-term resilience outcomes. Our findings highlight the varied challenges and resilience capacities across each country, influenced by a complex interplay of economic, political, agricultural, and food affordability factors crucial for determining long-term resilience in their food systems. Recommendations for future research include focusing on resilience assessment in food systems, integrating climate change adaptation measures, and developing early intervention strategies.

Socioeconomic determinants of modern climate change adaptation of small-scale vegetable farmers in Bohlabela District, Mpumalanga Province

Climate change significantly impacts small-scale agriculture, with limited adaptation capabilities due to lack of access to advanced science and technology. Traditional methods are ideal, but modern adaptations require significant financial investment, affecting the smallholder under-resourced agricultural sector's economic activities. The study analyzed climate change adaptation drivers among small-scale vegetable farmers, using a representative sample of 244 farmers from four villages through face-to-face interviews and semi-structured questionnaires. Using the Logistic regression model, the results showed resources (extension services), institutional (association membership) and societal influence (farm produce theft, and animal trespassing in the farming plots) to be associated with the use of modern climate change adaptation measures in the study area. The study recommends expanding extension services, strengthening community policing, creating community grazing guidelines, and training farmers on climate change causes, social cohesion, and mitigation strategies to address farm produce theft and animal trespassing. The study contributes new knowledge to the discourse of climate change adaptation by providing empirical evidence pointing out the need to consider critical non-climate factors for farmers when making climate change adaptations interventions in the smallholder farming sector.

Characterization of urban agriculture and farmers’ climate change adaptation: the case of Urban Wa, Ghana

Urban agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa has the potential to significantly improve urban food security and feed the underprivileged when promoted. In Ghana, urban agriculture has several characteristics that distinguish it from traditional farming practices. However, climate change poses a significant threat to urban agriculture, as changing weather patterns can lead to droughts, floods, and extreme weather events that damage crops and animals. This study explored the characteristics of urban food crops and livestock production in the Wa township, Ghana. Mixed methods of data collection and analysis were employed. A sample of 362 urban households was administered survey questionnaires supplemented with 12 key informant interviews. Descriptive and content analysis were carried out, with the results presented in tables, graphs, and narratives. The study found that amidst climatic stressors, urban agriculture is characterized by the production of animals such as chickens, sheep, and goats and crops like maize, yam, beans, cabbage, and pumpkin. Land is acquired through purchasing, though other farmers obtain land from relatives and friends. There is a very strong relationship between residential class and the type of urban farming (Cramer’s V = 0.291 > 0.25) and a moderate relationship between residential class and land acquisition type (Cramer’s V = 0.108 > 0.10). The study concludes that urban farming is characterized by mixed farming coupled with crop diversification, which has implications for climate change adaptation measures. To adapt urban agriculture to climatic stressors, the study recommends that the Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA) should streamline agricultural policy interventions in urban agriculture to promote agriculture intensification.

Stability of soil slope in Almaty covered with steel slag under the effect of rainfall

The issue of rainfall-induced slope failure has attracted more attention from geotechnical engineers as a consequence of global warming. Current cumulative waste disposal has generated scientific interest in the utilization of waste materials in geotechnical design for climate change adaptation measures. Taking into consideration the effect of slope height and angle, steel slag—a waste product derived from the production of steel—was investigated as a slope cover against rainfall. To assess the stability of the slope and the infiltration of water into the soil, numerical analyses were conducted using both SEEP/W and SLOPE/W software in conjunction with rainfall conditions. Based on the findings, it can be concluded that increasing the slope's elevation and inclination will have an adverse effect on its safety factor. Steel slag can nevertheless be utilized for minimizing rainwater infiltration into the slope, as indicated by the pore-water pressure variations and graphs of the safety factor versus time. For a 20-m slope height, steel slag slopes have demonstrated a lower factor of safety difference in comparison to the initial slope without remediation. Regardless of slope angle and slope height, the safety factor reduces marginally during rainfall.

Vulnerability and adaptation of maize smallholder farmers to climate change: a Sub-Saharan African context

This study analyzed smallholder maize farmers' perceptions of climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategies in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. The study used a cross-sectional quantitative approach, with smallholder farmers selected based on farm size (less than 10 hectares). Using simple random sampling techniques, 210 smallholder farmers in South Kivu Province was selected from October and November 2021. The data were analyzed using frequency analysis, non-parametric Mann–Whitney U-tests, Tobit regression model and structural equations modeling, which demonstrated that demographic and socioeconomic factors influenced smallholder farmers' perceptions and adaptation strategies to climate change. The findings revealed that the level of education, size of the field, and activities of smallholder farmers had significant effects on climate change perception and adaptation strategies. Smallholder farmers' perceptions had a negative (p < 1%) influence on maize smallholder farmers' adaptation to climate change. Common efforts should be made to encourage smallholder farmers to feel committed enough to implement climate change adaptation measures that are effective in mitigating or preventing climate change risk. The results of this study would have implications for policies to support maize smallholder farmers in their efforts to mitigate and resilient to climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Firstly, the promotion of climate literacy must be sufficient to provide farmers with information on climate and forecasting. Secondly, to empower smallholder farmers with means and resources to prevent and reduce the effects of climate change. Lastly, enhancing the current environment for the agriculture sector will advance community inclusivity and food security.

Analysis of the Effect of Climate Change Adaptation Measures Used by Cassava Farmers in Central Agricultural Zone of Cross River State, Nigeria

The study examined an analysis of the effect of climate change adaptation measures used by cassava farmers in a central agricultural zone, Cross River State, Nigeria. A systematic sampling technique was used to select 141 Cassava farmers who participated in the study. Data collected were analyzed using descriptive statistics and a logit model. Adaptation measures and barriers to adaptation were captured using a four (4) point Likert scale, while the data on socio-economic characteristics were analyzed using descriptive statistics such as percentage and frequency, while hypothesis one was tested using a logit regression model and hypothesis two was tested using Chi-square x2. The findings show that (74.80/0) of the respondents were between the ages of 31 years and above. The majority of the respondents were males (50.10/0), while 480/0 of them were females and were mainly dominated by the married class (50.30/0). The study reveals that the major cause of climate change in the study area is bush burning, which was ranked first; using agricultural chemicals was ranked second; and deforestation was ranked third, respectively. While the climate change effects were reducing rainfall, was ranked first pest and disease outbreaks and drought were ranked second and third, respectively, as the most adverse effects caused by climate change in the study area. The study also shows that farmers have been able to carry out some adaptation measures to combat the effect of climate change, such as the use of improved cassava varieties, the use of green manure, early planting, change of planting date, change of harvesting date and tillage. It was also revealed that the barriers associated with climate change mitigation include lack of access to weather forecast technology, inadequate finance to cope with the changing climate, and lack of cassava varieties that are adaptable to low rainfall. The result of the Chi-square x2 test on the relationship between the effect of climate change and the adaptive measures used by cassava farmers in the study area shows that x2 values of 287.3 of the effect of climate change on cassava production are greater than the tabulated value of 0.0922. The result, therefore, indicates that there is a significant relationship between the effect of climate change and the adaptive measures used by cassava farmers. The positive sign associated with the variables in the logit regression model improved varieties of cassava stem, green manure, early planting, and mulching would increase cassava yield. It was recommended that policy-makers formulate policies that will strengthen climate adaptation in the study area.

How Do Arable Crop Farmers’ Adapt to Climate Change? New Evidence from Nigeria

In Nigeria, climate change is not a new phenomenon and arable crop production is vulnerable to climate change. Arable crop farmers have always responded to climate change with local strategies believed to be climate-smart. Arable crop farmers' knowledge of climate change is an important step in understanding any action to be taken to reduce its effect. However, empirical studies on the link between climate change and crop farmers’ adaptation strategies are still relatively scanty in the area. This presents a dearth in research. Therefore, our paper examined how arable crop farmers adapt to climate change using cross-sectional data obtained through a structured focused group discussion and questionnaire from 120 arable farmers across critical farming communities in Imo State, Nigeria. We utilized multistage and purposive sampling procedure in the selection of arable crop farmers. The reason we utilized purposive sampling procedure was to select areas with high intensity of arable crop farmers and farming. Data collected was analyzed using descriptive statistical tools and mean (x̄) score analysis. Our result shows that the mean age was 42.00 years. Greater proportions (73.00%) were female. The average farm size was 1.45 hectares. Vegetables (100.00%), maize (99.17%), cassava (98.33%) and rice (96.67%) were among the crops produced in the area. The result confirmed the incidence of climate change in the area and farmers perceived rightly the direction of the change, which includes declining crop yields (x̄ = 3.00; σ = 0.50), increased in new pests and diseases infestation (x̄= 2.88; σ = 0.58); unstable decrease and increase in temperature and rainfall (x̄=3.63, σ = 0.83) among others. Our study further shows that the major climate change adaptation measures farmers practiced were diversification of livelihood (99.17%) and changing planting/harvesting dates (97.50%). Farmers identified inadequate information (99.17) and inadequate climate change adaptation fund (98.33%) among others as the barriers they faced in adapting to climate change in the area. We recommend that, since arable crop farmers are members of cooperatives, they are encouraged to take advantage of their strength to collectively project a common demand in obtaining funds and other necessary inputs in adapting to climate change in the area. Finally, our study also suggests that the agricultural extension service system should be strengthened so as to provide farmers with stable and right early warning signs which will be critical in minimizing risks of climatic threats in the area.

Adapting to sea level rise: migration decisions and disaster mitigation strategies in small-scale fishing communities

This study explores the adaptation process of small-scale fishing families in Demak, Java, in response to sea level rise and tidal floods. Qualitative research methods are used to investigate the factors influencing families’ decisions to relocate. Findings indicate that families employ home elevation as a short-term adaptation measure, but severe floods eventually lead to the challenging decision of permanent migration. The study highlights the interplay of physical, social, and economic factors in shaping migration decisions. While short-term strategies provide partial relief, migration emerges as a vital long-term resilience strategy. Mitigation efforts involve coastal protection, wetland restoration, land use planning, and climate change adaptation measures. The study emphasises the need for tailored, context-specific strategies and integration of sea level rise considerations into broader climate change mitigation efforts. Overall, understanding migration decisions and implementing targeted disaster mitigation strategies are crucial for enhancing the resilience of coastal communities facing sea level rise.

Tipología de unidades de producción y tecnologías pecuarias de adaptación a la sequía en Sinaloa, México

Drought as an effect of climate change affects the productivity and sustainability of livestock systems. The objective of this study was to analyze how technological land management for adaptation to climate change adopted by livestock farmers in southern Sinaloa, Mexico, corresponds to the typologies identified in the study area. A non-probabilistic sampling was applied, selecting 50 production units (UP) in six municipalities of Sinaloa, whose information was analyzed by cluster analysis and descriptive statistics. It were identified three livestock typologies. Cluster 1 (46 %), was defined as subsistence since its production units (PU) has few animals and showed the smallest total surface area, the producers are the oldest and use the shade in paddocks and the adjustment of stocking rates as drought mitigation practices. Cluster 2 (46 %), sowed the medium productive behavior, are younger producers whose PU showed the largest area of crops and rangeland, this group adopted stocking rate adjustment, forage conservation and species diversification as mitigation measures. Cluster 3 (8 %) showed the highest total area, livestock inventory and productivity levels; drought mitigation decisions are focused on stocking rate adjustment and forage conservation. The study identified mitigation practices related to land use from the farmers' point of view. These results can be used to conduct studies in similar environments and to scale adaptation measures for climate change from the local level and by type of farmer.

Building climate resilience: awareness of climate change adaptation in German outpatient medical practices

BackgroundClimate change is seen as the biggest health threat of the twenty-first century. Making outpatient medical practices resilient is therefore crucial to protect vulnerable groups and maintain quality of care. Awareness is a precondition for action. This study aims to explore awareness (knowledge, experience and attention) of climate change adaptation among stakeholders of outpatient medical practices.MethodsSemi-structured interviews and focus groups with stakeholders of outpatient medical practices were conducted. The qualitative data were analysed in a two-step Thematic Analysis process.ResultsIn total, n = 40 stakeholders participated in two focus groups and 26 interviews. The findings show a mixed degree of awareness in outpatient medical practices. The spectrum ranged from a passive role with curative acting only, handing over responsibility to others and a low perceived self-efficacy to a proactive and responsible implementation of adaptation strategies. Participants who saw the need and responsibility of climate change adaptation in medical practices perceived low additional workload. In general, implementation of climate change adaptation measures and general awareness of climate change adaptation appeared to be depending on a certain tension for change and a higher self-efficacy.ConclusionMedical practices, and specifically primary care, plays a crucial role in climate change adaptation, and awareness needs to be increased further in order to cope with consequences of climate change. To facilitate this, there should be a strong emphasis on climate change adaptation strategies being part of outpatient care provider roles rather than being perceived as an “add-on” to already high workloads.

The utilization and contribution of timber and non-timber forest products to livelihoods under a changing climate in the Limpopo River Basin

Forest products contribute immensely to rural livelihoods and household income. However, their contribution to climate change adaptation in semi-arid areas, and the limited ecosystem management capacities of rural communities are poorly examined. We examined the influence and challenges of cash income derived from forest products on livelihoods and climate change adaptation using data from 130 household surveys, 20 participatory mapping exercises, several in-depth interviews, and field observations in the Limpopo Basin of Botswana. Households derived livelihoods and/or income from Mopane caterpillars, firewood, timber, palm plants, wild fruits, thatch, medicinal plants, natural dyes, natural pastures, and game meat. Mopane caterpillars, firewood, and other forest products featured in the top ten sources of household income and contributed weighted monthly income of BWP 1,647.27 ± 1,519.04, BWP 1,110.02 ± 1,980.05, and BWP 780.56 ± 1,360.32, respectively (US$1 ≈ BWP13.4). A higher proportion of households (62.3%) were in the low-income category, earning income below BWP5,000/month. Income derived from Mopane caterpillars and firewood made a significant difference between low-income and high-income households (p = 0.006). Generally, higher proportions of high-income households adopted climate change adaptation measures than proportions in the low-income category, indicating the influence of cash income on household adaptations. However, significant differences were only observed in cropland expansion, purchasing of supplementary livestock feed, drilling boreholes/wells, and use of drip irrigation (p < 0.05). We discuss the potential threats, such as the unsustainable harvesting of forest products, caused by an increasing need for cash incomes and the interconnectedness with distant urban markets. Such threats add to the institutional and biophysical challenges, further limiting prospects for effective adaptation in the Limpopo Basin of Botswana. We call on the government to capacitate and strengthen traditional authorities—as custodians of local resources—in the regulation, management, and conservation of forest products to make them more sustainable adaptation options.

Climate Smart Agriculture and its Implication on Climate Change Adaptation Measures within Smallholder Farming Systems in Gatundu South, Kenya

The impacts of climate change and the need for implementing adaptation and mitigation measures continues to dominate global environmental dialogue, with the Africa Climate Summit 2023 and Conference of Parties 28 being the most recent in this series. A hitherto marginalised aspect is the level of adoption of climate-smart agriculture practices in smallholder production systems. This study explored this dimension using Gatundu South as a case study. Rainfall data was obtained from the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station data. Socio-economic data targeting 384 respondents was collected using questionnaires. Standard procedures were used to analyse these data. Results showed that farmers are generally aware of climatic variability especially as evidenced by changes in rainfall patterns. Farmers adapt and attempt to mitigate effects of climate change and variability by using practices that deliver direct economic benefits and not necessarily the climate-smartness of the practices. Farmers did not associate their adaptation measures with the need to reduce emission of greenhouse gasses. To smallholder farmers, direct economic benefits are the primary incentives for the adoption of climate-smart practices. Further, the link between climate change and the invisible greenhouse gases is a knowledge gap among smallholder farmers. Therefore, adoption of climate smart agriculture practices can be enhanced if the narrative shifts to emphasise the negative contribution of greenhouse gases to farmers’ health and the concomitant medical costs, through their role in exacerbating air pollution

Coupled heat transfers resolution by Monte Carlo in urban geometry including direct and diffuse solar irradiations

Modelling transient combined heat transfer in complex urban geometry is a key step to predict human exposure or energy consumption and to quantify the effect of climate change mitigation and adaptation measures. A difficulty lies in the possibility for a model to scale up and integrate large and complex urban morphology. We develop a probabilistic approach to solve heat transfers with the Monte Carlo method that is insensitive to the complexity of both the urban geometry and the boundary conditions. The integral formulation that includes random walks for each heat transfer mode is presented and the computation of absorbed solar irradiations at walls with the double randomization technique is detailed. Numerical validations are given through comparisons with deterministic method results for single and two-layer slabs, but also a three-dimensional thermal bridge geometry. The developed probabilistic heat transfer model is then used in a demonstration heat wave scenario where are computed: the outdoor mean radiant temperature showing the influence of trees; and the indoor average wall temperature showing the influence of solar gains through windows.

Macroscale impact assessment of flood damage reduction from climate change adaptation policies

AbstractAdaptation policies are being increasingly implemented to cope with the increased frequency of natural disasters due to climate change. However, it is crucial to quantitatively evaluate the mitigating effects of these policies, as this allows for their assessment and prioritization. Therefore, this study sought to develop a nonlinear flood damage function for each administrative region of South Korea to quantify the potential damage caused by extreme rainfall events. Afterward, a power function was nested to model the coefficient of the flood damage function with regional factors characterizing each region's flood mitigation capacity. Here, regional factors were selected based on their linkage to two potential adaptation policies: enhancing retention reservoir and pumping capacity and enhancing river dike construction. The proposed evaluation framework was tested in 15 administrative districts in South Korea and the flood damage reduction effects of the two policy scenarios were estimated. The enhancement of retention reservoir and pumping capacity showed a 6.7% reduction effect, whereas enhancing river dike construction showed a 29.2% reduction effect. The implementation of both policies yielded a 34.3% reduction effect. Despite the limitations of this study, our findings still provide a quantitative comparison of the long‐term effects of national climate change adaptation measures. Additionally, accumulating more damage records would allow for the development of damage functions at a finer scale.

On the impact of decision rule assumptions in experimental designs on preference recovery: An application to climate change adaptation measures

Efficient experimental designs aim to maximise the information obtained from stated choice data to estimate discrete choice models' parameters statistically efficiently. Almost without exception efficient experimental designs assume that decision-makers use a Random Utility Maximisation (RUM) decision rule. When using such designs, researchers (implicitly) assume that the decision rule used to generate the design has no impact on respondents' choice behaviour. This study investigates whether the decision rule assumption underlying an experimental design affects respondents' choice behaviour. We use four stated choice experiments on coastal adaptation to climate change: Two are based on experimental designs optimised for utility maximisation and two are based on experimental designs optimised for a mixture of RUM and Random Regret Minimisation (RRM). Generally, we find that respondents place value on adaptation measures (e.g., dykes and beach nourishments). We evaluate the models' fits and investigate whether some choice tasks particularly invoke RUM or RRM decision rules. For the latter, we develop a new sampling-based approach that avoids the confounding between preference and decision rule heterogeneity. We find no evidence that RUM-optimised designs invoke RUM-consistent choice behaviour. However, we find a relationship between some of the attributes and decision rules, and compelling evidence that some choice tasks invoke RUM consistent behaviour while others invoke RRM consistent behaviour. This implies that respondents’ choice behaviour and choice modelling outcomes are not exogenous to the choice tasks, which can be particularly critical when information on preferences is used to inform actual decision-making on a sensitive issue of common interest as climate change.