Climate-carbon Cycle Feedback Research Articles

Climate warming accelerates carbon release from foliar litter-A global synthesis.

With over one-third of terrestrial net primary productivity transferring to the litter layer annually, the carbon release from litter serves as a crucial valve in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. However, few quantitative global projections of litter carbon release rate in response to climate change exist. Here, we combined a global foliar litter carbon release dataset (8973 samples) to generate spatially explicitly estimates of the response of their residence time (τ) to climate change. Results show a global mean litter carbon release rate ( ) of 0.69 year-1 (ranging from 0.09-5.6 year-1). Under future climate scenarios, global mean τ is projected to decrease by a mean of 2.7% (SSP 1-2.6) and 5.9% (SSP 5-8.5) during 2071-2100 period. Locally, the alleviation of temperature and moisture restrictions corresponded to obvious decreases in τ in cold and arid regions, respectively. In contract, τ in tropical humid broadleaf forests increased by 4.6% under SSP 5-8.5. Our findings highlight the vegetation type as a powerful proxy for explaining global patterns in foliar litter carbon release rates and the role of climate conditions in predicting responses of carbon release to climate change. Our observation-based estimates could refine carbon cycle parameterization, improving projections of carbon cycle-climate feedbacks.

Early Jurassic large igneous province carbon emissions constrained by sedimentary mercury

Large igneous province eruptions and their carbon emissions often coincide with, and are hypothesized to have driven, severe environmental perturbations in the geological past. However, the vast scale of large igneous provinces and uncertainties in magmatic volatile contents and radioisotopic dates limit our ability to resolve gas emissions in detail over time. Here we employ high-resolution (~5–200 kyr) sedimentary mercury data from the Llanbedr (Mochras Farm) borehole, Wales, to derive quantitative large igneous province degassing estimates over a 20-million-year-long Early Jurassic interval (195–175 million years ago). Intervals of relatively elevated sedimentary mercury coincide with episodes of carbon-cycle change, including the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (183–182 million years ago). We use excess mercury loading to estimate large igneous province-associated carbon emissions, revealing that multi-millennial episodes of activity plausibly drove recognized pCO2\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$p_{{\\mathrm{CO}}_2}$$\\end{document} and temperature increases. However, previous carbon-cycle model-based carbon emission scenarios require faster and larger carbon inputs than our proposed emissions. Resolving this discrepancy may require climate–carbon-cycle feedbacks or co-emitted gases to substantially exacerbate the carbon-cycle response, processes potentially underestimated in current models. Our long and near-continuous record of Early Jurassic large igneous province activity demonstrates mercury’s potential as a tool to resolve past carbon fluxes.

Emergent temperature sensitivity of soil organic carbon driven by mineral associations

Soil organic matter decomposition and its interactions with climate depend on whether the organic matter is associated with soil minerals. However, data limitations have hindered global-scale analyses of mineral-associated and particulate soil organic carbon pools and their benchmarking in Earth system models used to estimate carbon cycle–climate feedbacks. Here we analyse observationally derived global estimates of soil carbon pools to quantify their relative proportions and compute their climatological temperature sensitivities as the decline in carbon with increasing temperature. We find that the climatological temperature sensitivity of particulate carbon is on average 28% higher than that of mineral-associated carbon, and up to 53% higher in cool climates. Moreover, the distribution of carbon between these underlying soil carbon pools drives the emergent climatological temperature sensitivity of bulk soil carbon stocks. However, global models vary widely in their predictions of soil carbon pool distributions. We show that the global proportion of model pools that are conceptually similar to mineral-protected carbon ranges from 16 to 85% across Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and offline land models, with implications for bulk soil carbon ages and ecosystem responsiveness. To improve projections of carbon cycle–climate feedbacks, it is imperative to assess underlying soil carbon pools to accurately predict the distribution and vulnerability of soil carbon.

Drought response of the boreal forest carbon sink is driven by understorey–tree composition

The boreal forest is an important global carbon sink, but its response to drought remains uncertain. Here, we compiled biometric- and chamber-based flux data from 50 boreal forest stands to assess the impact of the 2018 European summer drought on net ecosystem production (NEP) across a 68 km2 managed landscape in northern Sweden. Our results reveal a non-uniform reduction in NEP (on average by 80 ± 16 g C m−2 yr−1 or 57 ± 13%) across the landscape, which was greatest in young stands of 20–50 years (95 ± 39 g C m−2 yr−1), but gradually decreased towards older stands (54 ± 57 g C m−2 yr−1). This pattern was attributed to the higher sensitivity of forest-floor understorey to drought and its decreasing contribution to production relative to trees during stand development. This suggests that an age-dependent shift in understorey–tree composition with increasing stand age drives the drought response of the boreal forest NEP. Thus, our study advocates the need for partitioning ecosystem responses to improve empirical and modelling assessments of carbon cycle–climate feedbacks in boreal forests. It further implies that the forest age structure may strongly determine the carbon sink response to the projected increase in drought events across the managed boreal landscape.

Carbon Cycle–Climate Feedbacks in the Post-Paris World

The Paris Agreement calls for emissions reductions to limit climate change, but how will the carbon cycle change if it is successful? The land and oceans currently absorb roughly half of anthropogenic emissions, but this fraction will decline in the future. The amount of carbon that can be released before climate is mitigated depends on the amount of carbon the ocean and terrestrial ecosystems can absorb. Policy is based on model projections, but observations and theory suggest that climate effects emerging in today's climate will increase and carbon cycle tipping points may be crossed. Warming temperatures, drought, and a slowing growth rate of CO2 itself will reduce land and ocean sinks and create new sources, making carbon sequestration in forests, soils, and other land and aquatic vegetation more difficult. Observations, data-assimilative models, and prediction systems are needed for managing ongoing long-term changes to land and ocean systems after achieving net-zero emissions. ▪ International agreements call for stabilizing climate at 1.5° above preindustrial, while the world is already seeing damaging extremes below that. ▪ If climate is stabilized near the 1.5° target, the driving force for most sinks will slow, while feedbacks from the warmer climate will continue to cause sources. ▪ Once emissions are reduced to net zero, carbon cycle-climate feedbacks will require observations to support ongoing active management to maintain storage. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Volume 52 is May 2024. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Recent peat and carbon accumulation on changing permafrost landforms along the Mackenzie River valley, Northwest Territories, Canada

Northwestern Canada is currently warming nearly four times faster than the global average, driving accelerated permafrost thaw and changes to ecosystem vegetation, hydrology and landscape structure across the landscape. While permafrost peatlands constitute a large carbon reservoir, there is no consensus yet on the direction and magnitude of changes to their vulnerable carbon balance. Here, we assessed changes in peatland ecosystems following permafrost thaw at three sites located along a 1000 km long climate and permafrost gradient along the Mackenzie River valley, Canada. Specifically, we examined vegetation succession over the last few decades to evaluate the possible impact of climate warming on peat and carbon accumulation. Results from the palaeoecological analysis of 20 surficial peat cores, supported by robust chronologies, show a return to Sphagnum accumulation since ca. 1980 CE in the sporadic and discontinuous permafrost zones and ca. 2000 CE in the continuous permafrost zone. The average rates of peat and carbon accumulation reached 4 mm yr−1 and 134 g C m−2 yr−1 at the northernmost site in the continuous permafrost zone. In contrast, peat and carbon accumulation reached 3 mm yr−1 and 81 g C m−2 yr−1, respectively, in the sporadic and discontinuous permafrost zones. This study highlights the need for a net carbon budget that integrates the recent accelerated Sphagnum growth and carbon uptake from the atmosphere to better assess the potential carbon emissions offset following permafrost thaw. High-resolution palaeoecological studies can offer insights into decadal-scale patterns of vegetation and carbon balance changes to improve model predictions of peat climate-carbon cycle feedbacks.

Coupled anaerobic methane oxidation and metal reduction in soil under elevated CO2.

Continued current emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) and methane (CH4 ) by human activities will increase global atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations and surface temperature significantly. Fields of paddy rice, the most important form of anthropogenic wetlands, account for about 9% of anthropogenic sources of CH4 . Elevated atmospheric CO2 may enhance CH4 production in rice paddies, potentially reinforcing the increase in atmospheric CH4 . However, what is not known is whether and how elevated CO2 influences CH4 consumption under anoxic soil conditions in rice paddies, as the net emission of CH4 is a balance of methanogenesis and methanotrophy. In this study, we used a long-term free-air CO2 enrichment experiment to examine the impact of elevated CO2 on the transformation of CH4 in a paddy rice agroecosystem. We demonstrate that elevated CO2 substantially increased anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) coupled to manganese and/or iron oxides reduction in the calcareous paddy soil. We further show that elevated CO2 may stimulate the growth and metabolism of Candidatus Methanoperedens nitroreducens, which is actively involved in catalyzing AOM when coupled to metal reduction, mainly through enhancing the availability of soil CH4 . These findings suggest that a thorough evaluation of climate-carbon cycle feedbacks may need to consider the coupling of methane and metal cycles in natural and agricultural wetlands under future climate change scenarios.

Soil respiration-driven CO2 pulses dominate Australia's flux variability.

The Australian continent contributes substantially to the year-to-year variability of the global terrestrial carbon dioxide (CO2) sink. However, the scarcity of in situ observations in remote areas prevents the deciphering of processes that force the CO2 flux variability. In this study, by examining atmospheric CO2 measurements from satellites in the period 2009-2018, we find recurrent end-of-dry-season CO2 pulses over the Australian continent. These pulses largely control the year-to-year variability of Australia's CO2 balance. They cause two to three times larger seasonal variations compared with previous top-down inversions and bottom-up estimates. The pulses occur shortly after the onset of rainfall and are driven by enhanced soil respiration preceding photosynthetic uptake in Australia's semiarid regions. The suggested continental-scale relevance of soil-rewetting processes has substantial implications for our understanding and modeling of global climate-carbon cycle feedbacks.

Bioenergetic control of soil carbon dynamics across depth

Soil carbon dynamics is strongly controlled by depth globally, with increasingly slow dynamics found at depth. The mechanistic basis remains however controversial, limiting our ability to predict carbon cycle-climate feedbacks. Here we combine radiocarbon and thermal analyses with long-term incubations in absence/presence of continuously 13C/14C-labelled plants to show that bioenergetic constraints of decomposers consistently drive the depth-dependency of soil carbon dynamics over a range of mineral reactivity contexts. The slow dynamics of subsoil carbon is tightly related to both its low energy density and high activation energy of decomposition, leading to an unfavourable ‘return-on-energy-investment’ for decomposers. We also observe strong acceleration of millennia-old subsoil carbon decomposition induced by roots (‘rhizosphere priming’), showing that sufficient supply of energy by roots is able to alleviate the strong energy limitation of decomposition. These findings demonstrate that subsoil carbon persistence results from its poor energy quality together with the lack of energy supply by roots due to their low density at depth.

Responses of soil respiration to nitrogen addition are mediated by topography in a subtropical karst forest

Soil respiration is the largest terrestrial source of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and hence plays a vital role in the carbon cycle-climate feedback. Although the effects of elevated atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition on soil respiration have been intensively investigated, it remains unclear whether the effects are mediated by topography, which impacts multiple soil abiotic and biotic properties. Here, a field N addition experiment with three rates, i.e., 0, 50 and 100 kg N ha−1 yr−1 was performed in the valley and on the slope of a subtropical karst forest in southwest China to explore whether and how topography mediates soil respiration. Nitrogen addition increased soil respiration by 55–63 % in the valley due to increased microbial activity. However, high N addition stimulated soil respiration by 56 % on the slope due to enhanced fine root biomass. The response of soil respiration to moderate N addition was significantly greater in the valley than on the slope, likely owing to the lower N availability in the valley. Our results demonstrate that the responses of soil respiration to N addition were mediated by topography, and hence highlight the importance of incorporating topography into Earth system models to better predict forest carbon dynamics in the context of elevated atmospheric N deposition.

Compound drought constrains gross primary productivity in Chinese grasslands

Water constraints disturb and damage the growth and development of grassland vegetation mainly through both atmospheric and soil pathways. In the background of rapid climate change in the future, the impacts of water constraints on grasslands are expected to further deepen. However, current studies lack reports exploring the frequency, intensity, and area of land-atmospheric compound drought on carbon indicators in grassland ecosystems. In this study, we analyze the response of China grasslands to dual terrestrial-atmospheric water constraint events using ISIMIP gross primary productivity (GPP) data to reveal the carbon cycle-climate feedback relationships over the Chinese grassland. We found that the occurrence probability of compound drought events (i.e. land-atmospheric water constraint) was 3–4 times higher than that of random drought events, and the frequency, intensity, and affected area of compound droughts were significantly higher than that of single droughts. Compound droughts caused a decline of up to 20.27% in GPP of grassland ecosystems in China, while the decline of single atmospheric drought or soil drought was only 12.34% and 14.32%. Which is because vapor pressure deficit and soil moisture are a set of strongly coupled bivariate variables, and the continued strengthening of the land-atmospheric feedback causes a higher probability of occurrence of compound drought events and an increased impact on ecosystem GPP.

Optimal soil water content and temperature sensitivity differ among heterotrophic and autotrophic respiration from oasis agroecosystems

Soil respiration (Rs), which consists of heterotrophic respiration (Rh) by soil decomposers and autotrophic respiration (Ra) by roots, plays a critical role in the climate–carbon cycle feedback. However, the magnitudes, patterns and drivers of Rs and its components remain unclear in agroecosystems in arid regions. In this study, we conducted a two-year program of continuous measurement of Rs, Rh, Ra, soil water content (SWC5), and soil temperature (Ts5) at a 5-cm depth in an irrigated vineyard in Northwest China. The results showed that the mean annual Rs was 688.03 ± 8.59 g C m−2 yr−1 (mean ± standard deviation), of which 67.9 ± 0.5 % was dependent on Rh and 32.1 ± 0.5 % was dependent on Ra. In addition, the contribution of Rs during the non-growing season (NGS) to the annual values was 19.9 ± 2.3 %. We found that Rh and Ra responded asynchronously to SWC5 and Ts5. During the growing season (GS), the optimal SWC5 (20.0 %) and temperature sensitivity (Q10 = 1.93 ± 1.38) for Ra were higher than that for Rh (19.0 % and 0.97 ± 0.76). They were affected by the plant growth stages to a certain extent. During the NGS, the Q10 for Rh (1.52 ± 0.95) was higher than that for Ra (1.51 ± 1.27). These results underscore the importance of including the NGS emissions for reliably quantifying annual Rs and its components from arid agroecosystems. Meanwhile, Rh and Ra should be considered separately in Earth system models. The different optimal soil water content and temperature sensitivity for Rh and Ra should be used when predicting the effects of climate change.

Reduced global fire activity due to human demography slows global warming by enhanced land carbon uptake

Fire is an important climate-driven disturbance in terrestrial ecosystems, also modulated by human ignitions or fire suppression. Changes in fire emissions can feed back on the global carbon cycle, but whether the trajectories of changing fire activity will exacerbate or attenuate climate change is poorly understood. Here, we quantify fire dynamics under historical and future climate and human demography using a coupled global climate–fire–carbon cycle model that emulates 34 individual Earth system models (ESMs). Results are compared with counterfactual worlds, one with a constant preindustrial fire regime and another without fire. Although uncertainty in projected fire effects is large and depends on ESM, socioeconomic trajectory, and emissions scenario, we find that changes in human demography tend to suppress global fire activity, keeping more carbon within terrestrial ecosystems and attenuating warming. Globally, changes in fire have acted to warm climate throughout most of the 20th century. However, recent and predicted future reductions in fire activity may reverse this, enhancing land carbon uptake and corresponding to offsetting ∼5 to 10 y of global CO2 emissions at today’s levels. This potentially reduces warming by up to 0.11 °C by 2100. We show that climate–carbon cycle feedbacks, as caused by changing fire regimes, are most effective at slowing global warming under lower emission scenarios. Our study highlights that ignitions and active and passive fire suppression can be as important in driving future fire regimes as changes in climate, although with some risk of more extreme fires regionally and with implications for other ecosystem functions in fire-dependent ecosystems.

Impact of bioenergy crop expansion on climate–carbon cycle feedbacks in overshoot scenarios

Abstract. Stringent mitigation pathways frame the deployment of second-generation bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) to generate negative CO2 emissions. This bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) technology facilitates the achievement of the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. Here, we use five state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs) to explore the consequences of large-scale BECCS deployment on the climate–carbon cycle feedbacks under the CMIP6 SSP5-3.4-OS overshoot scenario keeping in mind that all these models use generic crop vegetation to simulate BECCS. First, we evaluate the land cover representation by ESMs and highlight the inconsistencies that emerge during translation of the data from integrated assessment models (IAMs) that are used to develop the scenario. Second, we evaluate the land-use change (LUC) emissions of ESMs against bookkeeping models. Finally, we show that an extensive cropland expansion for BECCS causes ecosystem carbon loss that drives the acceleration of carbon turnover and affects the CO2 fertilization effect- and climate-change-driven land carbon uptake. Over the 2000–2100 period, the LUC for BECCS leads to an offset of the CO2 fertilization effect-driven carbon uptake by 12.2 % and amplifies the climate-change-driven carbon loss by 14.6 %. A human choice on land area allocation for energy crops should take into account not only the potential amount of the bioenergy yield but also the LUC emissions, and the associated loss of future potential change in the carbon uptake. The dependency of the land carbon uptake on LUC is strong in the SSP5-3.4-OS scenario, but it also affects other Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios and should be taken into account by the IAM teams. Future studies should further investigate the trade-offs between the carbon gains from the bioenergy yield and losses from the reduced CO2 fertilization effect-driven carbon uptake where BECCS is applied.

Examining the role of environmental memory in the predictability of carbon and water fluxes across Australian ecosystems

Abstract. The vegetation's response to climate change is a significant source of uncertainty in future terrestrial biosphere model projections. Constraining climate–carbon cycle feedbacks requires improving our understanding of both the immediate and long-term plant physiological responses to climate. In particular, the timescales and strength of memory effects arising from both extreme events (i.e. droughts and heatwaves) and structural lags in the systems (such as delays between rainfall and peak plant water content or between a precipitation deficit and down-regulation of productivity) have largely been overlooked in the development of terrestrial biosphere models. This is despite the knowledge that plant responses to climatic drivers occur across multiple timescales (seconds to decades), with the impact of climate extremes resonating for many years. Using data from 12 eddy covariance sites, covering two rainfall gradients (256 to 1491 mm yr−1) in Australia, in combination with a hierarchical Bayesian model, we characterised the timescales and magnitude of influence of antecedent drivers on daily net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and latent heat flux (λE). By focussing our analysis on a single continent (and predominately on a single genus), we reduced the degrees of variation between each site, providing a novel chance to explore the unique characteristics that might drive the importance of memory. Model fit varied considerably across sites when modelling NEE, with R2 values of between 0.30 and 0.83. λE was considerably more predictable across sites, with R2 values ranging from 0.56 to 0.93. When considered at a continental scale, both fluxes were more predictable when memory effects (expressed as lagged climate predictors) were included in the model. These memory effects accounted for an average of 17 % of the NEE predictability and 15 % for λE. Consistent with prior studies, the importance of environmental memory in predicting fluxes increased as site water availability declined (ρ=-0.73, p<0.01 for NEE, ρ=-0.67, p<0.05 for λE). However, these relationships did not necessarily hold when sites were grouped by vegetation type. We also tested a model of k-means clustering plus regression to confirm the suitability of the Bayesian model for modelling these sites. The k-means approach performed similarly to the Bayesian model in terms of model fit, demonstrating the robustness of the Bayesian framework for exploring the role of environmental memory. Our results underline the importance of capturing memory effects in models used to project future responses to climate change, especially in water-limited ecosystems. Finally, we demonstrate a considerable variation in individual-site predictability, driven to a notable degree by environmental memory, and this should be considered when evaluating model performance across ecosystems.

Elevational variability in and controls on the temperature sensitivity of soil organic matter decomposition in alpine forests

AbstractPatterns and elevational controls on the response of soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition to temperature in alpine forest soils are critical to efforts to quantify the regional carbon cycle–climate feedback, but are not well known. Here, we report rates of SOM decomposition (RS) and temperature sensitivity (Q10) determined in a short‐term laboratory incubation with gradual warming from 5 to 29°C of soils from different elevations in the Qilian Mountains, China (2600, 2800, 3000, and 3200 m). The results showed the RS significantly increased with increasing elevation (p < 0.001), in which RS was significantly greater at 3200 m than that at the other elevations but had no significant difference in RS among elevations below 3200 m. Across all elevations, RS first showed an increasing trend at temperatures <20°C and then declined substantially (>20°C), most likely in response to the content of labile C (greater at the start of incubation and declining over time). Q10 of SOM decomposition increased significantly with increasing elevation and decreasing incubation temperature (p < 0.001). Meanwhile, soil organic carbon (SOC), total nitrogen, and 1‐ to 2‐mm aggregate‐associated organic carbon (OC) were the main control factors affecting RS and Q10 along an elevational gradient. These results indicate that high‐altitude soils in alpine forests of the Qilian Mountains are relatively more sensitive to warming and have greater potential to release CO2 due to higher SOC contents and 1‐ to 2‐mm aggregate‐associated OC than low‐altitude soils. The findings could serve as a reference for how regional C pools may respond to future warming in alpine forests of the Qilian Mountains.

Assessing and predicting soil carbon density in China using CMIP5 earth system models

Soil carbon (SC) is a key component of the carbon cycle and plays an important role in climate change; however, quantitatively assessing SC dynamics at the regional scale remains challenging. Earth system model (ESM) that considers multiple environmental factors and spatial heterogeneity has become a powerful tool to explore carbon cycle-climate feedbacks, although the performance of the ESM is diverse and highly uncertain. Thus, identifying reliable ESMs is a prerequisite for better understanding the response of SC dynamics to human activity and climate change. The 16 ESMs that participated in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were employed to evaluate the skill performance of SC density simulation by comparison with reference data from the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme Data and Information System (IGBP-DIS). Although ESMs generally reflect spatial patterns with lower SC in northwest China and higher SC in southeast China, 11 of 16 ESMs underestimated the SC in China, and 5 of 16 ESMs overestimated the SC density as most ESMs had large discrepancies in capturing the SC density in the northern high latitudes of China and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. According to a series of model performance statistics, SC simulated by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) Coupled Model had a close spatial pattern with IGBP-DIS and showed higher skills for SC predictions in China relative to other CMIP5 ESMs. The multimodel ensemble average obtained by IPSL family ESMs showed that SC density exhibited increasing trends under both the RCP4.5 scenario and RCP8.5 scenario. The SC density increased slowly under RCP8.5 compared with that under RCP4.5 and even displayed a decreasing trend in the late 21st century. The findings of this study can provide a reference for identifying the shortcomings of SC predictions in China and guide SC parameterization improvement in ESMs.

Empirical evidence that manganese enrichment accelerates decomposition

Our understanding of the controls regulating the rate of litter decomposition is important for improving confidence in the parameterization of carbon cycle–climate feedbacks. Traditional conceptual models rely primarily on climate and lignin/N ratios as the main regulators of decomposition. Here we studied the effects of manganese (Mn) addition on long-term decomposition across 18 substrates in a laboratory incubation. Mn addition remarkably promoted later stage of decomposition, resulting into a smaller fraction of slowly decomposing litter. This dynamic is closely associated with the changes of activities of manganese peroxidase, an important enzyme with greater capacity for lignin degradation. Our findings suggest the necessity of incorporating the interaction of Mn and decomposition into biogeochemical models.

Temporally variable parameters simulate asymmetrical interannual variation of aboveground and belowground carbon pools in an alpine meadow

Exploring interannual variation (IAV) of terrestrial carbon cycle is crucial for understanding the climate-carbon cycle feedback. However, model simulations of IAV in carbon pools are highly sensitive to parameterization. Although researches indicate that parameters vary as environment changes, most terrestrial carbon cycle models apply time-invariant parameters, leading to uncertainty in reproducing IAV. We compared the IAV simulation accuracy of carbon pools between constant and temporally variable parameters, generated by a piecewise model-data fusion framework based on long-term multi-observations in an alpine meadow over the Tibetan Plateau. Piecewise assimilation showed that key parameters involved in photosynthesis and allocation processes exhibited significant temporal variation under warming and nitrogen deposition. Specifically, day length threshold for leaf senescence was postponed, while allocation to autotrophic respiration, allocation to root, leaf nitrogen content, and nitrogen use efficiency increased. Compared with constant parameters, temporally variable parameters captured the observed asymmetrical response of aboveground and belowground carbon pools to climate fluctuations, improved modeled magnitude of IAV in carbon pools by 34% on average, and advanced carbon sink estimation accuracy by 43.15%. Therefore, fitting parameter dynamics to climatic conditions can provide a benchmark for future simulation in the Tibetan Plateau. Our research suggests that IAV in different carbon pools is crucial in determining carbon sinks. Temporal variations of parameters present how ecosystems adapt to a changing environment and should be incorporated to terrestrial carbon cycle models to reduce uncertainty in model prediction.

A small climate-amplifying effect of climate-carbon cycle feedback

The climate-carbon cycle feedback is one of the most important climate-amplifying feedbacks of the Earth system, and is quantified as a function of carbon-concentration feedback parameter (β) and carbon-climate feedback parameter (γ). However, the global climate-amplifying effect from this feedback loop (determined by the gain factor, g) has not been quantified from observations. Here we apply a Fourier analysis-based carbon cycle feedback framework to the reconstructed records from 1850 to 2017 and 1000 to 1850 to estimate β and γ. We show that the β-feedback varies by less than 10% with an average of 3.22 ± 0.32 GtC ppm−1 for 1880–2017, whereas the γ-feedback increases from −33 ± 14 GtC K−1 on a decadal scale to −122 ± 60 GtC K−1 on a centennial scale for 1000–1850. Feedback analysis further reveals that the current amplification effect from the carbon cycle feedback is small (g is 0.01 ± 0.05), which is much lower than the estimates by the advanced Earth system models (g is 0.09 ± 0.04 for the historical period and is 0.15 ± 0.08 for the RCP8.5 scenario), implying that the future allowable CO2 emissions could be 9 ± 7% more. Therefore, our findings provide new insights about the strength of climate-carbon cycle feedback and about observational constraints on models for projecting future climate.