Climate Adaptation Planning Research Articles

Indigenous knowledge in climate adaptation planning: reflections from initial efforts

There are increasing calls to incorporate indigenous knowledge (IK) into climate adaptation planning (CAP) and related projects. However, given unique attributes of IK and the positionality of tribal communities to scientific research, several considerations are important to ensure CAP efforts with IK are ethical and effective. While such topics have been thoroughly explored conceptually, incorporation of IK into CAP is a nascent field only beginning to report findings and improve science production and delivery. Based on recent work with Ute Mountain Ute (UMU) resource managers and knowledge holders, we reflect on key considerations for incorporating IK into CAP: the importance of sustained and multi-level tribal engagement, operational approaches to IK incorporation, cross-cultural challenges with risk-based approaches, and how CAP can support existing tribal priorities. We hope exploring these considerations can help set appropriate expectations, promote ethical interactions, and increase the effectiveness of tribal CAP and related efforts.

Improving the Quality of Climate Change Adaptation Planning Through State Mandate: The Case of California

Problem, research strategy, and findings As communities everywhere experience accelerating climate change impacts, local governments must proactively plan and implement adaptation or resilience strategies. A significant challenge is effectively scaling up these efforts in diverse communities. In 2015, the State of California passed Senate Bill 379 (SB379), requiring climate change adaptation and resilience strategies in local plans, making it the first U.S. state to broadly mandate such requirements locally. Our study measured the effects of SB379 on the quality of local plans that address climate change adaptation or resilience and assessed which types of plans jurisdictions selected to meet the requirements. Using a longitudinal study, we analyzed plan quality before and after SB379 took effect using criteria developed for earlier studies of voluntary climate adaptation plans. We found that California plans have significantly improved when assessed against theoretical criteria, and most jurisdictions have chosen their local hazard mitigation plans to meet the requirements. The flexible and cooperative design of the mandate and its loose enforcement suggest local jurisdictions are willing to address climate change, even when challenged with more stringent requirements if incentives align. As a natural policy experiment, California’s experience offers a unique opportunity to examine the effects of a state planning mandate and the choices local jurisdictions make to comply. Takeaway for practice Cooperative mandates that require local governments to address climate change adaptation and resilience in their plans but offer flexibility in how they do so may improve the quality of plans. Practitioners should seek to leverage flexibility in such mandates to the advantage of their local communities.

Institutional Designs for Procedural Justice and Inclusion in Urban Climate Change Adaptation

Although there is broad consensus that more inclusive approaches are needed in climate adaptation planning, it is unclear how cities should redesign rules, institutions, and decision-making processes to produce more equitable forms of participation and engagement. This paper evaluates different planning procedures and institutional arrangements across twenty-five U.S. cities. Although arrangements are context-specific, institutional designs fall into three categories: consultative partnerships, strategic collaborations, and expansive co-governance arrangements. Each institutional design leads to different kinds of inclusion outcomes. Our results empiricize how cities can pursue more inclusive climate adaptation planning and highlight opportunities to advance and implement broader procedural equity goals.

Heterogenous impact of background meteorological factors on the cooling effect of two types of typical urban parks: Evidence from Shanghai, China

The cooling effect of urban parks (PCE) is widely recognized as an effective way to improve the urban thermal environment. While the influence of various background meteorological factors (BMFs) on PCE has been increasingly documented, further understanding of these impacts, particularly across different types of urban parks, remains insufficient. Here, we selected two typical urban parks, fifteen with green space (PG) and fifteen with blue-green space (PB&G) in Shanghai, China for comparative studies. The impact of BMFs on PCE and the threshold value of efficiency (TVoE) of sampled urban parks under six different dates were quantified through descriptive statistics and correlation analysis. The results showed that: (1) Compared with PG, PB&G had a stronger cooling effect, and were stable under different background meteorological conditions (BMCs). (2) The BMFs enable significant impact on the PCE, both PG and PB&G showed better PCE under higher background air temperature (Ta). (3) The blue space ratio (RBS) of urban parks presented a stronger correlation with PCE than the green space ratio (RGS) under various BMCs, especially in BMCs of lower relative humidity (Rh); thus, the regulation of RBS should be firstly considered for better PCE. (4) The TVoE of PB&G had better fitting results and was also less affected by BMCs, PB&G with an area of 0.93 ha was encouraged for optimal PCE from a cost-benefit perspective in the study area. These findings are essential to decision-makers and can provide actionable knowledge for urban climate adaptation planning.

Constructing an urban heat network to mitigate the urban heat island effect from a connectivity perspective

Urban heat islands (UHIs) have been investigated from various perspectives. However, little is known about UHI-mitigation strategies in terms of UHI networks and the overall connectivity. Therefore, we developed a research framework to construct a UHI network from a connectivity perspective in a typical “furnace city”—Fuzhou city, China. Initially, morphological spatial patterns, mean standard deviations, and landscape connectivity were analyzed to identify UHI sources and assess their importance. Subsequently, six natural and socioeconomic factors were integrated into the model to create a combined resistance surface for thermal diffusion. Finally, circuit theory was applied to build a UHI network and pinpoint key nodes. Our results show that the combined resistance increased from the center of the study area to the periphery. In addition, 38 UHI sources, 84 thermal corridors, 30 heating nodes, and 21 cooling nodes were identified. The UHI sources and key nodes were primarily distributed in an uneven manner in the nuclear and northwestern regions of the research area. Furthermore, cooling measures were developed for UHI networks to reduce network connectivity. Our research framework offers a new perspective for promoting healthy urban development and climate-adaptation planning.

Integrating aquatic species, assemblage, and habitat climate change vulnerabilities into a watershed-scale decision support framework

Climate change is increasingly recognized as a serious threat to ecological systems, particularly freshwater systems. As a result, climate adaptation planning is more common in natural resource management. Because conservation resources are limited, decision support tools can help managers prioritize actions. We created the Species and Habitat-based Ecological Decision Support tool (wtrSHEDS) for conservation managers by integrating two distinct indices: one biologically based on aquatic watershed-scale species assemblages and the other a habitat climate change vulnerability index. To do this, we evaluated 60 crayfish and fish species in West Virginia, USA, using the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index under an A1B emissions scenario. The species vulnerability assessment results indicated that most species we assessed are vulnerable to climate change. Four species of fish and two species of crayfish had extremely high vulnerability due to their dependence on a specific hydrological cycle, sensitivity to barriers, and reproductive dependence on a thermal niche. Aggregating species at the watershed scale (8-digit hydrological unit code [HUC]) using an adapted weighted sum indicated which assemblages were the most and least vulnerable to climate change. Secondly, we created a unique habitat vulnerability index using the established Northeast Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies habitat vulnerability index and an index of land cover vulnerability from the Forecast Scenario model’s land cover change projections under the A1B emissions scenario to incorporate potential synergistic impacts of land use. Land cover projections were reclassified based on the assumption that developed land would have a higher potential to interact with climate change than forested lands synergistically. We combined the two habitat indices at the watershed scale (HUC 8) and performed a Hot Spot Analysis to 1) combine the assemblage and habitat vulnerability indices and 2) identify watersheds of conservation priority. This assessment methodology illustrates a means of identifying priority conservation areas in West Virginia that utilize pre-existing data, can be modified to suit management needs, and, therefore, one that managers across regions can readily apply to their system.

Scenario planning for climate adaptation and management: a high-level synthesis and standardization of methodology

Scenario planning is a tool used to explore a set of plausible futures shaped by specific trajectories. When applied in participatory contexts, it is known as participatory scenario planning (PSP), which has grown in its usage for planning, policy, and decision-making within the context of climate change. There has been no high-level synthesis of systematic reviews covering the overall state and direction of PSP for climate adaptation and management. We draw from four systematic reviews on PSP published between 2015 and 2021 to substantiate the credibility of the process and identify a set of standard practices to make PSP a more accessible and usable tool for not only researchers, but policymakers, practitioners, and other end users who may benefit from PSP. We summarize and synthesize the range of PSP processes and characteristics, highlighting four common trends that provoke additional inquiry: PSP’s contribution to social learning and bias, the varying use of quantitative information in scenario development, issues related to carrying out monitoring and evaluation, and the varying completion of practices recommended by established PSP literature. We propose four processes as integral to maximizing PSP’s usability for end users and recommend these areas for further study: identifying social imbalances throughout the PSP process, recognizing bias as inherent to PSP, explicitly addressing, and incorporating uncertainty, and allocating resources for monitoring and evaluation.

Recommendations for incorporating invasive species into U.S. climate change adaptation planning and policy

AbstractExecutive Order No. 14008 mandated that U.S. federal agencies and departments develop Climate Change Adaptation Plans to enhance the nation's resilience to climate change. Invasive species are documented to reduce the effectiveness of climate adaptation and mitigation actions. In spite of this, only eight of the 26 federal plans directly reference invasive species, and just four meaningfully consider the reciprocal impact of invasive species on climate adaptation efforts. To ensure that climate adaptation planning and processes are effective with associated benefits for biodiversity conservation, a gap analysis of the Climate Change Adaptation Plans was conducted. Five key recommendations were developed that would transform how invasive species are considered within them. Examples of how invasive species have been included in some of the plans are provided, with suggestions for agencies that did not include invasive species on how they might do so, to illustrate that dedicated efforts in prevention, detection, and management of invasive species can safeguard carbon sequestration, protect communities and infrastructure, and minimize economic and biodiversity losses. Although developed based on U.S. federal plans, these recommendations can be used by state and local, as well as international, jurisdictions tasked with implementing climate‐adaptive policies to build resilience across multiple sectors.

Affective Sensitivity to Air Pollution (ASAP): Person-specific associations between daily air pollution and affective states.

Individuals' sensitivity to climate hazards is a central component of their vulnerability to climate change. In this paper, we introduce and outline the utility of a new intraindividual variability construct, affective sensitivity to air pollution (ASAP)-defined as the extent to which an individual's affective states fluctuate in accordance with daily changes in air quality. As such, ASAP pushes beyond examination of differences in individuals' exposures to air pollution to examination of differences in individuals' sensitivities to air pollution. Building on known associations between air pollution exposure and adverse mental health outcomes, we empirically illustrate how application of Bayesian multilevel models to intensive repeated measures data obtained in an experience sampling study (N = 150) over one year can be used to examine whether and how individuals' daily affective states fluctuate with the daily concentrations of outdoor air pollution in their county. Results indicate construct viability, as we found substantial interindividual differences in ASAP for both affect arousal and affect valence. This suggests that repeated measures of individuals' day-to-day affect provides a new way of measuring their sensitivity to climate change. In addition to contributing to discourse around climate vulnerability, the intraindividual variability construct and methodology proposed here can help better integrate affect and mental health in climate adaptation policies, plans, and programs.

Understanding how justice is considered in climate adaptation approaches: a qualitative review of climate adaptation plans

ABSTRACT Despite a growing focus on climate justice, prior research has revealed scant details about how marginalised groups have been engaged in local climate adaptation processes. This study aims to understand how justice is considered in these processes through a qualitative review of climate adaptation plans and related documents from US municipalities. We reviewed 101 plans published between 2010 and 2021 using the three-dimensional framework of recognitional, distributional, and procedural justice. Overall, our findings revealed a stronger focus on recognitional and distributional justice than procedural. Recognitional justice mainly focused on who is most vulnerable to climate change and how, with most plans adopting a similar understanding of vulnerability. Plans less frequently acknowledged how historical injustices contribute to vulnerability. Distributional justice was addressed through adaptation strategies across six areas (e.g. health and safety, buildings, green infrastructure, professional development, food, and transit), focusing greater attention on expanding existing programmes than new initiatives. Little attention was given to the potential negative impacts of proposed strategies. Procedural justice was mainly considered through one-off opportunities, rather than more extensive engagement in decision-making. Most plans lacked implementation considerations, for justice or otherwise, but when included, details mainly focused on who would be involved and not how strategies would be implemented. These findings provide an array of approaches to incorporate justice in adaptation planning and support several considerations for developing future plans.

Incorporating projected climate conditions to map future riparian refugia

AbstractIdentifying areas expected to remain buffered from climate change and maintain biodiversity and ecological function (i.e., climate refugia) is important for climate adaptation planning. As structurally diverse transitional zones between terrestrial and aquatic environments, riparian areas are often biological hotspots and provide critical corridors for species movement, particularly in arid and semi‐arid regions. In our study region in the western and central USA, identifying riparian areas that could serve as climate refugia is a priority for wildlife managers. We mapped areas with connected riparian habitats that, based on landscape diversity and projected changes in summer temperatures and landscape runoff, are expected to serve as climate refugia. To incorporate uncertainty and balance the need for near‐ and long‐term planning, we mapped potential refugia for 2 future time periods (2040–2069, 2070–2099) based on 2 climate models that represented divergent but plausible climate outcomes. The approach we developed is not constrained by physiology or behavior of target species and can be used to identify areas expected to fare comparatively well under a wide range of future climate scenarios. Our approach can also be used to identify areas where restoration could increase riparian connectedness and climate resilience.

Bridging differences by design: competencies and individual characteristics of boundary-spanning spatial designers in urban climate adaptation planning

ABSTRACT Urban designers and landscape architects increasingly take up boundary spanning as part of their broadening role towards designing processes, policies, narratives and becoming design-led entrepreneurs. This study mapped the competencies and individual characteristics of boundary-spanning spatial designers in urban climate adaptation planning and revealed that in addition to ‘known’ boundary spanning skills, design-related skills and competences have strong boundary spanning potential. However, boundary spanning is conditioned by the position of the boundary spanner, as well as other organizational, institutional, and environmental factors. These insights are helpful for developing (re)new(ed) educational design-curricula, and aiding spatial designers in becoming competent boundary spanners.

The necessity of pragmatic muddling. Ten Swedish early adopter cities navigating climate adaptation policy-implementation in the urban built environment

While climate adaptation planning and implementation is gradually increasing across the globe, there is a documented gap between what is done and what needs to be done. Researchers have documented climate adaptation efforts at the strategic policy-making level and in urban planning practices, but less is known about how cities navigate the intricacies of climate adaptation policy-progression in the existing built environment. Contributing to the analytical unpacking of how to reduce policy implementation gaps, this paper targets ten Swedish early adopter cities seeking to proactively and pragmatically progress with their climate adaptation efforts from policy-formation to implementation in the urban built environment. Qualitative analyses of interviews and policy-documents illustrate that the cities, despite their early adopter status, struggle with stepwise policy-progression and get stuck when approaching implementation. Ensuring appropriate climate adaptation in the existing urban built environment becomes problematic due to current legal distribution of responsibilities, diverse land-ownership patterns and path-dependent structures and configurations within cities that are dense, intricate and tightly developed over of time. We identify three pragmatic action-strategies adopted to create solution space and allowing the cities to proceed: event-driven, target-driven and opportunity-driven climate adaptation, each having their advantages and disadvantages for ensuring urban robustness, as well as different requirements for up-scaling. The analysis enables important lessons of climate adaptation policy-progression, the promise and pitfalls of stepwise adaptation and the necessity of pragmatic muddling that is required to make climate adaptation work in the existing urban built environment.

Temporal and Spatial Variability of Ground Frost Indices in Northeast China

Frost is one of the most frequent, intense, and influential agrometeorological disasters that occurs frequently in Northeast China. The study of the spatiotemporal changes of ground frost is of great significance for farmers and policymakers in Northeast China, as it can inform decisions related to crop selection, planting schedules, and the development of regional climate adaptation plans. In this study, the spatiotemporal changes of frost indices (last spring frost (LSF), first fall frost (FFF), and frost-free period (FFP)) in Northeast China were analyzed from 1961 to 2020. Then, we investigated the mutation characteristics of the frost indices and their correlation with geographical factors. The results revealed that (1) the LSF, FFF, and FFP in Northeast China were concentrated at 120–140 DOY, 260–280 DOY, and 110–170 days, respectively. The spatial distribution of frost indices exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity. (2) The LSF, FFF, and FFP showed significant trends of advancement, delay, and extension, with trends of −1.94 days/10 a, 1.72 days/10 a, and 4.21 days/10 a, respectively. (3) More than 80% of the LSF, FFF, and FFP of the sites showed trends of advancement, delay, and extension, with greater variability in the central part of Heilongjiang Province. (4) The FFF and FFP experienced an abrupt change in the late 1990s. (5) The correlation between latitude and LSF, FFF, and FFP was the strongest, with correlation coefficients of 0.77, −0.79, and −0.78, respectively. This study provides a comprehensive understanding of the changing characteristics of ground frost indices that impact agricultural production in Northeast China against the backdrop of climate change. The findings hold significant scientific value in guiding the adaptation of agricultural production layouts in Northeast China to the evolving climatic conditions.

Unequal considerations of justice in municipal adaptation planning: an assessment of US climate plans over time and by context

ABSTRACT Climate adaptation planning is increasingly approached locally through a social justice lens to ensure the needs of the most vulnerable are addressed. This study aims to identify trends in how recognitional, distributional, and procedural justice are considered within climate adaptation plans over time and across socio-demographic contexts. We coded these forms of justice in 101 climate adaptation plans and related documents published in the United States between 2010 and 2021 and conducted a series of regressions to understand patterns over time and across contexts. Newer plans more commonly addressed each type of justice, with a marked shift in plans published after 2017. More recent plans addressed new elements of recognitional justice (e.g. historical marginalisation, racial justice), a broader scope of distributional justice approaches (e.g. more strategies related to greenspaces, food, and green jobs), and more procedural justice-related initiatives to engage marginalised residents in adaptation. Plans from more Republican-leaning communities considered recognitional and distributional justice to a lesser degree than those from more Democratic-leaning areas. Plans by larger communities were more likely to address procedural justice and include strategies for monitoring the impacts to marginalised people. Plans from communities with a larger percentage of residents living in poverty addressed distributional justice more often and acknowledged more injustices faced by marginalised groups more often. We observed no trends in the treatment of procedural justice related to racial demographics or income. We discuss potential reasons for these trends and their implications.

Last mile delivery of climate adaptation in Uganda, the need to integrate and decentralize climate adaptation planning and implementation processes

ABSTRACT Millions of people in Uganda are in need of urgent climate adaptation. The current central government-led top-down projects are inefficient and ineffective. These projects financed by multi-lateral global climate funds have limited impact at community level. The Local Climate Living Adaptation facility (LoCAL) through its Performance-Based Climate Resilience Grants to local governments is much more efficient and effective. True last mile delivery of climate adaptation can be accomplished through the bottom-up District Development Planning process by assessing climate issues and capturing adaptation needs in village proposal sheets and turn them into Village Climate Adaptation Plans. To be able to rapidly provide locally led adaptation, systematically and continuously to the millions of people in need, integration of the three delivery mechanisms is proposed, where the millions of climate finance raised by the central government are channelled to district level as Performance-Based Climate Resilient Grants based on the adaptation needs captured in Village Climate Adaptation Plans.

Unravelling the impact of soil data quality on species distribution models of temperate forest woody plants

Soil properties influence plant physiology and growth, playing a fundamental role in shaping species niches in temperate forest ecosystems. Here, we investigated the impact of soil data quality on the performance of species distribution models (SDMs) of 41 woody plant species in Swiss forests. We compared models based on measured soil properties with those based on digitally mapped soil properties on regional (Swiss Forest Soil Maps) and global scales (SoilGrids). We first calibrated topo-climatic SDMs with measured soil data and plant species presences and absences from mature temperate forest stand plots. We developed further models using the same soil predictors, but with values extracted from digital soil maps at the nearest neighbouring plots of the Swiss National Forestry Inventory. The predictive power of SDMs without soil information compared to those with soil information, as well as measured soil information vs digitally mapped, was evaluated with metrics of model performance and variable contribution. On average, models with measured and digitally mapped soil properties performed significantly better than those without soil information. SDMs based on measured and Swiss Forest Soil Maps showed higher performance, especially for species with an ‘extreme’ niche position (e.g., preference for high or low pH), compared to those using SoilGrids. Nevertheless, if no regional soil maps are available, SoilGrids should be tested for their potential to improve SDMs. Moreover, among the tested soil predictors, pH, and clay content of the topsoil layers most improved the predictive power of SDMs for forest woody plants. In conclusion, we demonstrate the value of regional soil maps for predicting the distribution of woody species across strong environmental gradients in temperate forests. The improved accuracy of SDMs and insights into drivers of distribution may support forest managers in strategies supporting e.g. biodiversity conservation, or climate adaptation planning.

Between risk perceptions and adaptation policies: centering climate justice and social innovation in heat vulnerable cities

ABSTRACT This study leverages the roles of climate justice and social innovation in the perceptions of climate risk and climate adaptation policies within the local heat-vulnerable areas of seven Korean metropolitan cities. Using survey and document-based analyses, this work examines residents’ perceptions of climate risks and evaluates local climate adaptation plans in the context of climate adaptation policies. Results demonstrate that economic and social fairness aspects and collaborative learning activities played positive roles in enhancing adaptation policies. Further, higher participation as an aspect of social innovation led to heightened climate risk perceptions. Findings imply that social innovation and climate justice features can contribute to triggering risk perceptions as an initial stage for enabling subsequent steps in support of climate adaptation policies.

Applying global warming levels of emergence to highlight the increasing population exposure to temperature and precipitation extremes

Abstract. The swift and ongoing rise of global temperatures over the past decades led to an increasing number of climate variables showing statistically significant changes compared to their pre-industrial state. Determining when these climate signals emerge from the noise of internal climate variability (i.e., estimating the time of emergence, ToE) is crucial for climate risk assessments and adaptation planning. However, robustly disentangling the climate signal from internal variability represents a challenging task. While climate projections are communicated increasingly frequently through global warming levels (GWLs), the ToE is usually still expressed in terms of time horizons. Here, we present a framework to robustly derive global warming levels of emergence (GWLoE) using five single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) and apply it to four selected temperature and precipitation indices. We show that the concept of GWLoE is particularly promising to constrain temperature projections and that it proves a viable tool to communicate scientific results. We find that > 85 % of the global population is exposed to emerged signals of nighttime temperatures at a GWL of 1.5 °C, increasing to > 95 % at 2.0 °C. Daily maximum temperature follows a similar yet less pronounced path. Emerged signals for mean and extreme precipitation start appearing at current GWLs and increase steadily with further warming (∼ 10 % population exposed at 2.0 °C). Related probability ratios for the occurrence of extremes indicate a strong increase with widespread saturation of temperature extremes (extremes relative to historical conditions occur every year) reached below 2.5 °C warming particularly in (sub)tropical regions. These results indicate that we are in a critical period for climate action as every fraction of additional warming substantially increases the adverse effects on human wellbeing.

Characteristics of surface urban heat islands in global cities of different scales: Trends and drivers

Given the increasing severity of the surface urban heat island (SUHI) phenomenon, urban residents face heightened heat stress. Consequently, mitigating the effects of SUHI becomes critically important to improve urban livability. Previous studies often overlooked the influence of city size on SUHI, focusing on the correlational between SUHI and drivers and sidelining the synergistic effects of multiple factors on SUHI. To address this issue, we introduced a novel method, “geographical convergent cross-mapping”, coupled with the random forest and Shapley value theory. Our results indicated that: Globally, SUHI exhibited a decreasing trend during day and night, with significant spatiotemporal disparities, and in cities of varying sizes, the cooling capacity of vegetation for SUHI showed significant variation. Locally, in arid cities spanning 150–200 km², vegetation contributed to cooling SUHI by up to 61 %, but this effect lessened in larger cities. Notably, in equatorial cities larger than 200 km², this capability dropped drastically during summer, from 49 % to 7 %. Long-term trends showed an increase in daytime SUHI in equatorial regions and large cities along the southeastern coasts of China and the United States. This study provides key insights for precise urban climate adaptation and sustainable planning in cities of different sizes.