Climate Change Adaptation Research Articles

Water Infrastructure Impacts of Agricultural Industry in China Under Extreme Weather: A System Dynamics Model of a Multi-Level, Climate Resilience Perspective

China is the world’s largest agricultural country and is also deeply affected by extreme weather. Water infrastructure is a promising solution to improve the climate adaptability of the agricultural industry. This paper aimed to explore the above adaptive processes of the agricultural industry from a resilience perspective. By building a multi-level system dynamics (SDs) model, we assessed the development of the agricultural industry and water infrastructure, predicted the future resilience development trend, identified the key influencing factors, and simulated the effectiveness of different water infrastructure measures. The results show that (1) water infrastructure involving various climate adaptation measures significantly promotes the development of the agricultural industry. (2) Agricultural output, water infrastructure investment, and other fixed asset investments strongly improve resilience, and the impact of the crop planting area is limited. (3) The resilience level is higher under the eco-friendly water conservation scenario than in the water supply security scenario and flood disaster prevention scenarios. Such information will promote the sustainable development of the agricultural industry and future climate adaptation policy-making.

Revisiting the “East African Paradox”: CMIP6 Models Also Struggle to Reproduce Strong Observed Long Rain Drying Trends

Abstract Societies in much of the Horn of Africa are affected by variability in two distinct rainy seasons: the March–May (MAM) “long” rains and the October–December (OND) “short” rains. A recent five-season, La Niña–forced drought has renewed concerns about possible anthropogenic drying trends in the long rains, which had partially recovered after a multidecadal drying trend in the 1980s through the 2000s. Despite observed drying, previous generations of global climate models (GCMs) have consistently projected long-term wetting due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations, an East African “paradox” which complicates the interpretation of East African rainfall projections. We investigate the paradox in new phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and seasonal forecast models, leveraging an improved observational record and large ensembles to better differentiate internal and forced trends. We find observed drying trends are at the limits of the GCM spread during the peak paradox period, though the recent recovery is comfortably within the model spread. We find that the apparent paradox is largely removed by prescribing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and is likely caused by the GCM difficulties in simulating observed tropical Pacific SST trends in recent decades. In line with arguments that these SST trends are at least partially forced anthropogenically, we recommend users of future rainfall projections in East Africa consider the possibility of long-term MAM drying despite GCM wetting and call for future model simulations that better sample the expected spread of SSTs. Significance Statement Societies in the Horn of Africa depend on the March–May “long” rains and the September–December “short” rains to support agricultural and pastoral practices on rain-fed lands. Recent major droughts have raised worries about possible anthropogenically forced drying trends in the long rains through global climate models (GCMs) project wetting. This East African “paradox” complicates long-term climate adaptation planning. We find the paradox continues in the newest generation of GCMs and seasonal forecast models; though a recent recovery in rainfall is well-captured, the strongest observed drying trends are rare in simulations. The paradox likely arises from known GCM biases in the Pacific Ocean interacting with natural variability. We recommend that researchers and policymakers consider possible long-term drying despite GCM projections of wetting.

Investigating factors affecting trade flows in pork and poultry global markets using gravity models

ABSTRACT We aim to analyse factors affecting global trade in pork and poultry markets by examining trade flow determinants through gravity models. Our gravity model analysis focuses on non-tariff measures (i.e., sanitary and phytosanitary, technical barriers to trade, and other non-tariff measures) and climate change (i.e., temperature abnormalities, precipitation abnormalities, and climatological catastrophes). Our results confirm the theoretical ambiguity of the standards-trade effects. For pork trade, sanitary and phytosanitary measures are more trade-restrictive than tariffs. For poultry trade, technical barriers to trade operate as a trade catalyst, while other non-tariff measures function as a trade barrier. Policymakers should aim for a balance between protecting public health and facilitating trade. Temperature abnormalities in importing countries harm pork and poultry imports, while precipitation abnormalities in exporting countries negatively influence poultry exports. Climatological catastrophes slightly decrease pork imports (poultry exports). Encouraging climate adaptation measures within the agricultural and food processing sectors can help mitigate production and trade disruptions for exporters and supply disruptions for importers.

Using environmental and exercise physiology to address gender inequalities in climate change and occupational health research.

Climate change is a health-risk and health-inequity multiplier with excessive heat exposure a direct climate change impact already affecting the health and livelihood of billions globally. Women face greater risks and burdens from climate change impacts. Biological sex may or may not influence an individual's thermoregulatory capacity, heat tolerance or heat susceptibility. However at a population level, sex differences in physiological characteristics (anthropometrics, aerobic capacity, etc.) likely affect thermoregulatory capacity. Still, gender appears to play the most significant role in heat exposure and resulting health impacts. For climate change resilience and adaptation strategies to be effective, public health and occupational guidance/governance must be based on comprehensive and representative evidence. The current dearth of empirical evidence on how excessive heat exposure affects women prohibits this. Environmental and exercise physiology can help address this lack of empirical evidence by adhering to inclusive research guidelines. This paper is based on a symposium presentation given at Physiology 2023 in Harrogate, UK. Using a multi-year cohort study on industrial agricultural workers (the Adelante Initiative) as a case study, this review discusses the role of environmental and exercise physiology in generating inclusive research and evidence to inform occupational and public health guidance/governance for climate change resilience and adaptation, specifically heat exposure.

Agroforestry Systems: A Pathway to Resilient and Productive Landscapes

Agroforestry, the integration of trees, crops, and livestock on the same land, offers a sustainable approach to enhancing agricultural productivity while mitigating environmental challenges. This review highlights the important role agroforestry systems play in promoting resilient and productive landscapes, particularly in the face of climate change, land degradation, and biodiversity loss. Agroforestry systems, including alley cropping, silvopasture, and home gardens, provide significant ecological benefits such as carbon sequestration, reduced greenhouse gas emissions, improved soil health, water conservation, and enhanced biodiversity. These systems not only stabilize microclimates and reduce soil erosion but also improve soil fertility and water infiltration, making them vital for climate adaptation. Socio-economically, agroforestry diversifies income sources for smallholder farmers by generating products like timber, fruits, and fodder, while contributing to food security through year-round crop availability and improved nutrition. Despite these benefits, the adoption of agroforestry faces substantial barriers, including socio-cultural resistance, knowledge gaps, inadequate policy support, and limited access to markets and credit. High initial costs, perceived risks, and competition for resources between trees and crops further impede its widespread implementation. Addressing these challenges requires enhancing extension services, policy reforms, financial incentives, and market access to support smallholder farmers. Future directions emphasize integrating agroforestry into national agricultural policies and climate action plans, supported by research on optimizing species selection, pest management, and sustainable resource use. By the synergies between agroforestry, regenerative agriculture, and Sustainable Development Goals, agroforestry presents a viable pathway for transforming agricultural systems into more resilient, productive, and sustainable models. Scaling up agroforestry can help restore degraded lands, sequester carbon, and enhance the livelihoods of rural communities, contributing to global efforts to combat climate change and promote sustainable development.

New York State Climate Impacts Assessment Chapter 06: Energy.

Energy plays an integral role in New Yorkers' lives. It powers the economy, moves people and goods, keeps homes and workplaces at a livable temperature, and runs critical infrastructure that keeps people healthy and safe. Reliable energy systems are easy to take for granted, but many aspects of these systems are vulnerable to weather and climate hazards. This chapter discusses how climate change is affecting and will increasingly affect New York State's energy supply, delivery, and end uses. It provides insights into current and future climate vulnerabilities as New York's energy system transitions to clean energy sources. This assessment also highlights opportunities to adapt current and future energy systems and to build resilience to climate impacts.

The Role of Psychological Capital on Climate Change Adaptation Among Smallholder Farmers in the uMkhanyakude District of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Climate change and variability pose a challenge to the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. Previous studies on climate change in the context of smallholder farming have mainly focused on the influence of socio-economic factors in understanding farmers’ responses to climate change. However, little is known about the effect of psychological capital on climate change adaptation. There are calls for better empirical models and transdisciplinary approaches to understand the underlying drivers of climate change adaptation in smallholder farming systems. This study draws from behavioural decision research to assess psychological factors influencing climate change adaptation in the uMkhanyakude district of KwaZulu-Natal. This study adopted the Theory of Planned Behaviour to understand the effect of psychological capital on climate change adaptation. Data were collected from a sample of 400 smallholder farmers who were randomly selected from the uMkhanyakude district. Survey data were analysed using a multivariate probit regression model. The results of the multivariate probit regression model indicated that psychological capital (attitudes towards climate change, subjective norms, and trust) played an important role in influencing climate change adaptation. Climate change adaptation is also influenced by the gender of the farmer, education level, household size, and Tropical Livestock Units. These findings underscore the role of psychological capital in shaping climate change adaptation. This study recommends using transdisciplinary approaches (i.e., combining economics and psychology) in evaluating farmers’ responses to climate change.

A relational turn in climate change adaptation: Evidence from urban nature-based solutions.

The emergence of nature-based solutions (NbS) in science, policy, and practice signals a paradigmatic shift in urban climate change adaptation, yet empirical investigations into its impact on adaptation definitions and progress tracking remain scarce. Addressing this gap, we conducted thematic analysis on semi-structured interviews (n = 15) with practitioners responsible for implementing and evaluating urban NbS in different countries. We provide a nuanced understanding of urban adaptation goals within urban NbS according to the insights from these practitioners, extending beyond hazard mitigation and towards cultivating and strengthening relationships between humans and nature. Tracking adaptation progress towards such relational adaptation goals requires acknowledging knowledge pluralism and the diversity of human-nature relations. We propose an alternative definition of adaptation supported by our data that aims to foster a more holistic approach to urban climate adaptation that accounts for the potential benefits of urban NbS across interconnected climate, biodiversity, and social goals.

Advances and Challenges in Species Ecological Niche Modeling: A Mixed Review

Species distribution modeling (SDM) is a vital tool for ecological and biogeographical research, allowing precise predictions of species distributions based on environmental variables. This study reviews the evolution of SDM techniques from 1985 to 2023, focusing on model development and applications in conservation, climate change adaptation, and invasive species management. We employed a mixed review with bibliometric and systematic element approaches using the Scopus database, analyzing 982 documents from 275 sources. The MaxEnt model emerged as the most frequently used technique, applied in 85% of the studies due to its adaptability and accuracy. Our findings highlight the increasing trend in international collaboration, particularly between China, the United Kingdom, and Brazil. The study reveals a significant annual growth rate of 11.99%, driven by technological advancements and the urgency to address biodiversity loss. Our analysis also shows that while MaxEnt remains dominant, deep learning and other advanced computational techniques are gaining traction, reflecting a shift toward integrating AI in ecological modeling. The results emphasize the importance of global cooperation and the continued evolution of SDM methodologies, projecting further integration of real-time data sources like UAVs and satellite imagery to enhance model precision and applicability in future conservation efforts.

Rural Households' Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Adaptation Strategies in the Case of Begemdir District, Amhara Region, Ethiopia.

Climate change vulnerability is the biggest threat to ecosystems and economies of the world. Hence, this study aims to assess the vulnerability to climate variability adaptation strategies of rural households in Begemdir District, Northwest Ethiopia. In this study, the cross-sectional research design was used to gain a wider and better understanding of vulnerability to climate variability. Both primary and secondary data were used to triangulate the study to maintain validity. A multi-stage random sampling technique was used to select 120 sample households from the study area. Moreover, climatic data, such as rainfall and temperature data were collected from meteorological stations. The data gathered from primary data sources analyzed by using descriptive statistics. Finally, a logistic regression model was employed to identify the factors that affecting households' decisions to climate adaptation strategies in the study area. The results of the study reveal that the overall IPCC-LVI score is 0.49, and the perceived rainfall has decreased over the last decade. This implies livelihoods of the households are vulnerable to climate variability and low adaptive capacity. The age, sex, education level, extension services, land size, credit access, access to climatic information, access to credit, and extension services affected significantly (p < 0.05) households' vulnerability to climate variability in the study area. Thus, the local governments, policymakers, non-governmental organizations, and farming communities need to consider these variables to realize climate change adaptation strategies in the study area. Moreover, higher focus should be given to enhancing education, expanding access to credit, increasing land management support, as well as strengthening extension services to build long-term sustainable climate-resilient practices and mitigate the impacts of climate change vulnerability to households in the study area.

Engaging Young People in Community-based Flood Risk Management in Pekalongan, Indonesia

This technical report describes a capacity development project for flood risk management in Indonesia. The project aimed to equip tertiary students, referred to as 'learners,' with the basic knowledge and skills for flood risk management. We adopted a holistic approach that integrated online lectures, remote coaching and locally-based activities. We implemented a wide range of field activities to foster collaborative experiential learning. Our project took place in Pekalongan, a coastal city in Central Java Province. The significance of our efforts was underscored by the formal endorsement and support provided by the City Government of Pekalongan, which actively engaged 18 government officials in our programme. The capacity development project was structured into two parts. The first part encompassed six online lectures, delving into various aspects of flood risk management. In the second part, 18 enthusiastic Indonesian students took part in our field activities, which included water quality testing, flood exposure assessment, community vulnerability evaluation and community disaster planning. The majority of participants conveyed that the project either met or surpassed their expectations, significantly altering their understanding of climate change and climate vulnerability in Indonesia, while also redefining their roles in local climate change adaptation efforts.

Layout Optimization of Residential Buildings to Improve the Outdoor Microclimate of Neighborhoods Along an Urban Bay: A Case Study of Shantou’s Inner Bay, China

In summer, the urban heat island effect causes unbearable warmth in Shantou City, especially in the urban areas along the Inner Bay with densely populated neighborhoods. An investigation of the layout patterns of 100 residential neighborhoods along Shantou’s Inner Bay was conducted, leading to the establishment of four types and nine sub-types of idealized residential neighborhood models. Their wind speed, relative humidity, and air temperature were simulated in the ENVI-met software (version No.5.0.1). The simulation results show that high-rise buildings in the front areas play a decisive role in the overall microclimate environment. Accordingly, three principal drawbacks regarding neighborhood layout for thermal climate adaptation were extracted. Furthermore, by comparing the simulation results before and after modifying the layout of high-rise buildings, three spatial strategies to strengthen the humidification and cooling effect of sea–land breezes to optimize the outdoor microclimatic environment of neighborhoods were proposed, and these strategies were subsequently verified in the Golden-Harbor neighborhood.

Nutrition-sensitive climate risk across food production systems

Abstract Global nutrition targets remain unmet, as over half of preschool-aged children and two-thirds of non-pregnant women of reproductive age worldwide suffer from micronutrient deficiencies. Climate change poses a growing threat to global food and nutrition security, but existing climate risk assessments often overlook the critical roles of both terrestrial and aquatic nutrient-rich foods that are vital for dietary diversity and micronutrient supply. In this study, we introduce an innovative framework that integrates data on future climate extremes, nutrient supply dependencies, and diet-related climate vulnerability. Our comprehensive analysis assesses nutrition-sensitive climate risk to five essential micronutrients across production systems. By mid-century (2041-2060), we estimate that 75% of calcium, 30% of folate, 39% of iron, 68% of vitamin A, and 79% of vitamin B12 produced in primary food products will face frequent climate extremes (at least every other year) globally. Nearly fifty countries are projected to face high domestic climate risk for two or more micronutrients during this period, with ten countries facing high risk across all five. We outline distinct climate risk profiles to offer data-driven entry points into strategies for bolstering the resilience of micronutrient supply chains and advancing progress toward global nutrient targets in the face of a changing climate.

The role of the public health service in the implementation of heat health action plans for climate change adaptation in Germany: A qualitative study

BackgroundIn response to climate change-induced increases in heat periods, the WHO recommends the implementation of heat health action plans (HHAPs). In Germany, HHAPs are implemented neither comprehensively nor nationwide. Several recommendations have identified the public health service (PHS) at municipal and federal state levels as a key actor regarding to heat and health. Therefore, this study aimed at assessing the role of the PHS in implementing HHAPs at municipal and federal state levels in Germany.MethodsWe conducted a policy document analysis to assess the legal basis for the work of the PHS in the 16 federal states in Germany. Furthermore, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 16 experts from within and outside the PHS to explore their perceptions of the PHS in the implementation of HHAPs. The interviews were analysed using reflective thematic analysis.ResultsThe policy document analysis revealed that heat is not mentioned in any of the federal states’ regulatory frameworks for the PHS, while tasks related to environment and health are addressed, but tend to remain vague. The interviews confirmed that there is currently no clearly defined role for the PHS in implementing HHAPs in Germany and that the actual role primarily depends on the local setting. Main barriers and facilitators could be assigned to three levels (individual, organizational and political), and two overarching contextual factors (awareness of the need for adaptation and existence of other public health emergencies) influenced the implementation of HHAPs across all levels. At the individual level, motivation, knowledge and competencies, and previous experience were possible barriers or enablers. At the organizational level, administrative structures, financial and human resources, leadership and networks were barriers or facilitators, while at the political level they included legislation and political decisions.ConclusionsThe PHS could and should be a relevant actor for implementing measures addressing health and climate change locally, in particular because of its focus on vulnerable populations. However, our findings suggest that the legal basis in the federal states of Germany is insufficient. Tailored approaches are needed to overcome barriers such as rigid, non-agile administrative structures and competing priorities, while taking advantage of facilitators such as awareness of relevant actors.

Natural world heritage sites are at risk from climate change globally

Natural world heritage sites face increasing risk under rapid climate change, especially considering the impacts of climate extremes. However, there is not yet enough understanding of the future extreme climate challenges at global natural world heritage sites. Here we identify the exposure of 250 natural heritage sites to extreme climate events under 4 different future scenarios. We found that by 2100 under the highest emission scenario, 248 out of 250 sites were exposed to extreme climate events. Forest natural world heritage sites may face increasing pressure to complex extreme phenomena under emission rise. In tropical regions, where high temperatures may magnify the vulnerability of biodiversity, we identify 14 natural world heritage sites to be prioritised that are poor in biodiversity and expected to face high temperatures. Hence, there is an urgent need for enhanced climate change adaptation at heritage sites to minimise loss of irreplaceable values.

Review of Climate Change Impacts on Water Quantity and Quality in the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia

Climate change is a global phenomenon that significantly affects water quality and quantity, with implications observed across various regions worldwide. In the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB), Australia’s largest and most vital river system, climate change is exacerbating environmental and public health challenges, particularly through its impact on water resources. This review assesses the historical, current, and potential future impacts of climate change on both water quantity and quality in the MDB. The study involved a systematic review of 126 reputable sources, including peer-reviewed journals, government reports, and relevant books. A particular focus was given to the increasing frequency of blue-green algae (BGA) and blackwater events, which are key indicators of climate change’s impact on the basin’s water systems. The findings underscore the critical importance of integrating climate adaptation measures into existing water quality management policies to mitigate these adverse effects. The review concludes that proactive adaptation measures are essential for enhancing the resilience of the MDB’s water resources against the ongoing and future impacts of climate change, with lessons that may be applicable to other regions facing similar challenges.

Determination of Shoreline Variability for Adaptation of Maritime Built Heritage to Climate Change: A Case of Southern Kenya Coast

ABSTRACT Erosion, shoreline retreat and accelerated beach loss at maritime heritage sites in Southern Kenya, is on the rise. Consequences ranging from gradual decay, collapse to outright catastrophic loss of pillars, mosques, tombs, wells and historic ruins are indicative of absent coastal management and climate adaptation plans. Unfortunately, the susceptibility of this heritage to suffer damage remains high due to its location, age, material and methods of construction. The archival research method, was selected to establish shoreline movement based on multi-temporal Landsat images from 1994–2023. Shoreline positions of the study area were analysed using geo-spatial statistical techniques executed in the GIS environment. These include Net Shoreline Movement, End Point Rate and Linear Regression Rate. Results of total shoreline change between 1994 and 2023 were −96.47 m. A mean erosion rate of −3.57 m/year with a maximum of −6.18 m/year reveals that erosion trends are significant in the cultural landscape. Short-term priorities include: physical stabilisations and relocation of built heritage from vulnerable zones. Long-term priorities include: restoration of mangroves, preservation of salt marshes and protection of seagrass beds. This paper contributes to the promotion of coping capacities and priorities for adapting maritime heritage to climate change.

Beyond the scoreboard: Coaches' UV-related skin cancer knowledge in outdoor sports.

The global rise in UV radiation is widely recognized as one of the most relevant health impacts of climate change. Consequently, the prevalence of skin cancer is experiencing a significant increase, with outdoor athletes being identified as a particularly vulnerable population group. This study aims to investigate the extent of UV-specific skin cancer knowledge among coaches in outdoor sports and to examine potential variations in this knowledge between different sports, coach- and club-specific factors. This nationwide representative study was conducted among outdoor sports coaches from the 10 largest outdoor sports associations in Germany. Their knowledge of the risks associated with UV radiation and prevention measures were evaluated using the Skin Cancer and Sun Knowledge Scale (SCSK Scale). Out of 1200 participating trainers, the UV-specific skin cancer knowledge score averaged 17.76 (±2.98) on a scale ranging from 0 to 25. The true-false statements 'A tan is a sign that the skin is damaged' (true) and 'When using sunscreen, you can tan without any negative effects' (false) were most frequently answered incorrectly. Only 16% of participants correctly identified basal cell carcinoma as the most prevalent form of skin cancer. Differences in UV-specific skin cancer knowledge were evident across different sports, with football and tennis coaches showing the major knowledge deficits. Conversely, trainers in skiing, swimming and mountain sports demonstrated the highest levels of knowledge. Significant deficiencies in knowledge were particularly notable among male trainers, as well as those from the youngest and the oldest age group, with limited training experience and who primarily worked with children and adolescents in small clubs on a regular basis. Serious knowledge deficiencies are evident among German outdoor sports coaches. The study results emphasize the necessity for enhanced coach education and the implementation of evaluated concepts for climate adaptation in sports.

Fragility Modeling of Power Grid Infrastructure for Addressing Climate Change Risks and Adaptation

ABSTRACTThe resilience of electric power grids is threatened by natural hazards. Climate‐related hazards are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. Statistical analyses clearly demonstrate a rise in the number of incidents (power failures) and their consequences in recent years. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to understand and quantify the resilience of the infrastructure to external stressors, which is essential for developing efficient climate change adaptation strategies. To accomplish this, robust fragility and other vulnerability models are necessary. These models are employed to assess the level of asset damage and to quantify losses for given hazard intensity measures. In this context, a comprehensive literature review is carried out to shed light on existing fragility models specific to the transmission network, distribution network, and substations. The review is organized into three main sections: damage assessment, fragility curves, and recommendations for climate change adaptation. The first section provides a comprehensive review of past incidents, their causes, and failure modes. The second section reviews analytical and empirical fragility models, emphasizing the need for further research on compound and non‐compound hazards, especially windstorms, floods, lightning, and wildfires. Finally, the third section examines risk mitigation and adaptation strategies in the context of climate change. This review aims to improve the understanding of approaches to enhance the resilience of power grid assets in the face of climate change. These insights are valuable to various stakeholders, including risk analysts and policymakers, who are involved in risk modeling and developing adaptation strategies.

Data Sharing Practices in Agricultural Research: Findings from a Systematized Review

Objective: Agricultural researchers who follow data sharing best practices advance the state of research in a variety of critical areas including plant breeding, cropping systems, and climate change adaptation. Data sharing makes research more reliable and reproducible, therefore, data sharing practices of researchers are integral to advancing science. To assess how agricultural researchers adhere to these practices, we conducted a systematized review of their published output and examined different ways data were shared. Methods: Our study focused on corn and soybean production research published from 2017 to 2022 by authors at our institutions. We searched five databases, retrieved 8,271 articles, and created a randomized sample of 1,250 papers that contained an equal number of examples from each year. Following a rigorous set of criteria, we screened each article for inclusion and recorded the characteristics of the data, funder information, and whether the researchers shared data. Results: Of the articles that met the inclusion criteria, less than 15% shared the full dataset associated with the research. The rate of articles sharing data did not change appreciably over time and was low regardless of funding source. Methods for sharing data varied widely, both in data availability statements and in storage options. Conclusions: These results indicate a need for improved agricultural data sharing and suggest an important role for librarians and data professionals in promoting best data practices to meet increasingly strict funder requirements.