Cliff Instability Research Articles

Stability of Ice Shelves and Ice Cliffs in a Changing Climate

The largest uncertainty in future sea-level rise is loss of ice from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Ice shelves, freely floating platforms of ice that fringe the ice sheets, play a crucial role in restraining discharge of grounded ice into the ocean through buttressing. However, since the 1990s, several ice shelves have thinned, retreated, and collapsed. If this pattern continues, it could expose thick cliffs that become structurally unstable and collapse in a process called marine ice cliff instability (MICI). However, the feedbacks between calving, retreat, and other forcings are not well understood. Here we review observed modes of calving from ice shelves and marine-terminating glaciers, and their relation to environmental forces. We show that the primary driver of calving is long-term internal glaciological stress, but as ice shelves thin they may become more vulnerable to environmental forcing. This vulnerability—and the potential for MICI—comes from a combination of the distribution of preexisting flaws within the ice and regions where the stress is large enough to initiate fracture. Although significant progress has been made modeling these processes, theories must now be tested against a wide range of environmental and glaciological conditions in both modern and paleo conditions. ▪Ice shelves, floating platforms of ice fed by ice sheets, shed mass in a near-instantaneous fashion through iceberg calving.▪Most ice shelves exhibit a stable cycle of calving front advance and retreat that is insensitive to small changes in environmental conditions.▪Some ice shelves have retreated or collapsed completely, and in the future this could expose thick cliffs that could become structurally unstable called ice cliff instability.▪The potential for ice shelf and ice cliff instability is controlled by the presence and evolution of flaws or fractures within the ice.

Geodynamically corrected Pliocene shoreline elevations in Australia consistent with midrange projections of Antarctic ice loss

The Mid-Pliocene represents the most recent interval in Earth history with climatic conditions similar to those expected in the coming decades. Mid-Pliocene sea level estimates therefore provide important constraints on projections of future ice sheet behavior and sea level change but differ by tens of meters due to local distortion of paleoshorelines caused by mantle dynamics. We combine an Australian sea level marker compilation with geodynamic simulations and probabilistic inversions to quantify and remove these post-Pliocene vertical motions at continental scale. Dynamic topography accounts for most of the observed sea level marker deflection, and correcting for this effect and glacial isostatic adjustment yields a Mid-Pliocene global mean sea level of +16.0 (+10.4 to +21.5) m (50th/16th to 84th percentiles). Recalibration of recent high-end sea level projections using this revised estimate implies a more stable Antarctic Ice Sheet under future warming scenarios, consistent with midrange forecasts of sea level rise that do not incorporate a marine ice cliff instability.

DSCIM-Coastal v1.1: an open-source modeling platform for global impacts of sea level rise

Abstract. Sea level rise (SLR) may impose substantial economic costs to coastal communities worldwide, but characterizing its global impact remains challenging because SLR costs depend heavily on natural characteristics and human investments at each location – including topography, the spatial distribution of assets, and local adaptation decisions. To date, several impact models have been developed to estimate the global costs of SLR. Yet, the limited availability of open-source and modular platforms that easily ingest up-to-date socioeconomic and physical data sources restricts the ability of existing systems to incorporate new insights transparently. In this paper, we present a modular, open-source platform designed to address this need, providing end-to-end transparency from global input data to a scalable least-cost optimization framework that estimates adaptation and net SLR costs for nearly 10 000 global coastline segments and administrative regions. Our approach accounts both for uncertainty in the magnitude of global mean sea level (g.m.s.l.) rise and spatial variability in local relative sea level rise. Using this platform, we evaluate costs across 230 possible socioeconomic and SLR trajectories in the 21st century. According to the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report (AR6), g.m.s.l. is likely to rise during the 21st century by 0.40–0.69 m if late-century warming reaches 2 ∘C and by 0.58–0.91 m with 4 ∘C of warming (Fox-Kemper et al., 2021). With no forward-looking adaptation, we estimate that annual costs of sea level rise associated with a 2 ∘C scenario will likely fall between USD 1.2 and 4.0 trillion (0.1 % and 1.2 % of GDP, respectively) by 2100, depending on socioeconomic and sea level rise trajectories. Cost-effective, proactive adaptation would provide substantial benefits, lowering these values to between USD 110 and USD 530 billion (0.02 and 0.06 %) under an optimal adaptation scenario. For the likely SLR trajectories associated with 4 ∘C warming, these costs range from USD 3.1 to 6.9 trillion (0.3 % and 2.0 %) with no forward-looking adaptation and USD 200 billion to USD 750 billion (0.04 % to 0.09 %) under optimal adaptation. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) notes that deeply uncertain physical processes like marine ice cliff instability could drive substantially higher global sea level rise, potentially approaching 2.0 m by 2100 in very high emission scenarios. Accordingly, we also model the impacts of 1.5 and 2.0 m g.m.s.l. rises by 2100; the associated annual cost estimates range from USD 11.2 to 30.6 trillion (1.2 % and 7.6 %) under no forward-looking adaptation and USD 420 billion to 1.5 trillion (0.08 % to 0.20 %) under optimal adaptation. Our modeling platform used to generate these estimates is publicly available in an effort to spur research collaboration and support decision-making, with segment-level physical and socioeconomic input characteristics provided at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7693868 (Bolliger et al., 2023a) and model results at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7693869 (Bolliger et al., 2023b).

Smartphone Structure-from-Motion Photogrammetry from a Boat for Coastal Cliff Face Monitoring Compared with Pléiades Tri-Stereoscopic Imagery and Unmanned Aerial System Imagery

Many issues arise from the recession of sea cliffs, including threats to coastal communities and infrastructure. The best proxy to study cliff instability processes is the cliff face evolution. Unfortunately, due to its verticality, this proxy is difficult to observe and measure. This study proposed and compared three remote sensing methods based on structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry or stereorestitution: boat-based SfM photogrammetry with smartphones, unmanned aerial system (UAS) or unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) photogrammetry with centimetric positioning and Pléiades tri-stereo imagery. An inter-comparison showed that the mean distance between the point clouds produced by the different methods was about 2 m. The satellite approach had the advantage of covering greater distances. The SfM photogrammetry approach from a boat allowed for a better reconstruction of the cliff foot (especially in the case of overhangs). However, over long distances, significant geometric distortions affected the method. The UAS with centimetric positioning offered a good compromise, but flight autonomy limited the extent of the monitored area. SfM photogrammetry from a boat can be used as an initial estimate for risk management services following a localized emergency. For long-term monitoring of the coastline and its evolution, satellite photogrammetry is recommended.

A statistical approach for sea cliff hazard and setback lines mapping in the northeast of Peniche, Portugal

The considerable increase in the occupation of coastal areas requires strategies to conceive and apply hazard prevention and mitigation measures, especially in coastlines with sea cliffs where mass movements are more likely to occur. To predict the potential of sea cliff failures and identify the more unstable cliff sections, analytical, physical and/or statistical tools can enable the assessment of cliff failure susceptibility, which is a progress towards a better understanding of sea cliff failure hazard assessment and mapping.In this study, statistical approaches for the assessment of sea cliff failure susceptibility and definition of safety set-back lines located landwards of the cliff top crest were adopted, in the coast located to northeast of Peniche, between Baleal and the Óbidos lagoon, in the western coast of Portugal. For the susceptibility assessment, the logistic regression was used to correlate a set of predictive factors, obtained from thematic maps of geology (lithology, structure, faults), geomorphology (cliff height, slope angle, exposure, curvature, toe protection) and wave action, with an inventory of cliff failures that caused cliff top retreat, compiled from aerial photographs from 1947 to 2010. This method enabled the production of cliff failure susceptibility models using terrain units with different sizes, encompassing cliff crest length segments of 50 m, 20 m, and 10 m. The ordinal logistic regression was applied for the setback lines definition.The modeling results were analyzed using diagnostic measures and external validation, with each model being validated against the cliff instability inventory which indicated very good statistical performance and allowed the production of reliable susceptibility maps.The application of such statistical techniques enables estimation of the degree of susceptibility for cliff failures at regional scales of analysis, and assists the definition of cliff setback lines, which provide answers to planning and hazard prevention problems of coastal areas with sea cliffs.

Evaluating the Retreat, Arrest, and Regrowth of Crane Glacier Against Marine Ice Cliff Process Models

AbstractThe fastest projected rates of sea level rise appear in models which include “the marine ice cliff instability (MICI),” a hypothesized but mostly unobserved process defined by rapid fracture and wastage of terminal ice cliffs that outpaces viscous relaxation and ice‐shelf formation. Crane Glacier's response to the Larsen B Ice Shelf collapse has been invoked as evidence of MICI in the observational record. Using available remote sensing data, we analyze Crane's retreat, arrest, and regrowth over the last two decades. Much of Crane's terminus retreat occurred in floating, not grounded ice. Retreat accelerated by at least 54% during the 2 years following ice shelf collapse. This is inconsistent with contemporaneous regional forcing that promoted ice shelf growth during this period, but consistent with a geometrically controlled positive feedback. We infer a maximum possible cliff height of 111 m, which according to process models, could enable cliff calving assuming damaged ice.

Field Investigation of Sandstone Escarpment Stability at East Mountain, Utah, USA

During the last three decades, a significant amount of research has been directed to developing predictive tools for assessing the stability of the Castlegate Sandstone escarpment, travel distances for the debris and the need for any control measures in Central Utah. The cliff-forming Castlegate Sandstone is 60 m thick at the study mine in Utah and lies approximately 250 m above multiple-seam coal reserves. To assess escarpment stability, the authors used multiple regression analysis and extensive data on geology, mining, and escarpment stability collected over many years. The volume of failed rocks was used as the response variable. Mine layout options were developed to minimize cliff instability and frequency of mining-induced surface fractures. Geologic and geometric variables were obtained along 3.7 km of escarpment exposure at 180 study locations. A regression analysis of data from 29 study locations showed that surface topography plays a critical role in influencing escarpment stability. With additional data collected over the next longwall block, important variables were identified including canyon slope, thickness of Castlegate Sandstone and mining influence angle. Finally, the model was used for prediction of escarpment stability in area 3. In remote mining areas of Utah, warning signs were posted at the study areas.

Through an Ice Sheet, Darkly

Through an Ice Sheet, Darkly

Ice mass loss sensitivity to the Antarctic ice sheet basal thermal state

Sea-level rise projections rely on accurate predictions of ice mass loss from Antarctica. Climate change promotes greater mass loss by destabilizing ice shelves and accelerating the discharge of upstream grounded ice. Mass loss is further exacerbated by mechanisms such as the Marine Ice Sheet Instability and the Marine Ice Cliff Instability. However, the effect of basal thermal state changes of grounded ice remains largely unexplored. Here, we use numerical ice sheet modeling to investigate how warmer basal temperatures could affect the Antarctic ice sheet mass balance. We find increased mass loss in response to idealized basal thawing experiments run over 100 years. Most notably, frozen-bed patches could be tenuously sustaining the current ice configuration in parts of George V, Adélie, Enderby, and Kemp Land regions of East Antarctica. With less than 5 degrees of basal warming, these frozen patches may begin to thaw, producing new loci of mass loss.

GHOSTly flute music: drumlins, moats and the bed of Thwaites Glacier

AbstractGlacier-bed characteristics that are poorly known and modeled are important in projected sea-level rise from ice-sheet changes under strong warming, especially in the Thwaites Glacier drainage of West Antarctica. Ocean warming may induce ice-shelf thinning or loss, or thinning of ice in estuarine zones, reducing backstress on grounded ice. Models indicate that, in response, more-nearly-plastic beds favor faster ice loss by causing larger flow acceleration, but more-nearly-viscous beds favor localized near-coastal thinning that could speed grounding-zone retreat into interior basins where marine-ice-sheet instability or cliff instability could develop and cause very rapid ice loss. Interpretation of available data indicates that the bed is spatially mosaicked, with both viscous and plastic regions. Flow against bedrock topography removes plastic lubricating tills, exposing bedrock that is eroded on up-glacier sides of obstacles to form moats with exposed bedrock tails extending downglacier adjacent to lee-side soft-till bedforms. Flow against topography also generates high-ice-pressure zones that prevent inflow of lubricating water over distances that scale with the obstacle size. Extending existing observations to sufficiently large regions, and developing models assimilating such data at the appropriate scale, present large, important research challenges that must be met to reliably project future forced sea-level rise.

Stabilizing effect of mélange buttressing on the marine ice-cliff instability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Abstract. Owing to global warming and particularly high regional ocean warming, both Thwaites and Pine Island Glaciers in the Amundsen region of the Antarctic Ice Sheet could lose their buttressing ice shelves over time. We analyse the possible consequences using the parallel ice sheet model (PISM), applying a simple cliff-calving parameterization and an ice mélange-buttressing model. We find that the instantaneous loss of ice-shelf buttressing, due to enforced ice-shelf melting, initiates grounding-line retreat and triggers marine ice sheet instability (MISI). As a consequence, the grounding line progresses into the interior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and leads to a sea level contribution of 0.6 m within 100 a. By subjecting the exposed ice cliffs to cliff calving using our simplified parameterization, we also analyse marine ice cliff instability (MICI). In our simulations it can double or even triple the sea level contribution depending on the only loosely constrained parameter that determines the maximum cliff-calving rate. The speed of MICI depends on this upper bound of the calving rate, which is given by the ice mélange buttressing the glacier. However, stabilization of MICI may occur for geometric reasons. Because the embayment geometry changes as MICI advances into the interior of the ice sheet, the upper bound on calving rates is reduced and the progress of MICI is slowed down. Although we cannot claim that our simulations bear relevant quantitative estimates of the effect of ice-mélange buttressing on MICI, the mechanism has the potential to stop the instability. Further research is needed to evaluate its role for the past and future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Reviewing the elements of marine ice cliff instability

Antarctica’s ice sheets are the largest potential sea-level rise contributors, but projections of future sea-level rise yield wide ranges of estimates under different emission scenarios. An important factor in the variability of estimates is marine ice cliff instability (MICI). Inclusion of MICI yields the highest potential sea-level rise cases but also the largest uncertainty due to poor understanding of the factors that control it and the mechanisms of how it happens. Although evidence for MICI has been implied by paleo-ice sheet studies and observations of keel plough mark on sea-floor, recent statistical and modelling studies have suggested a lower magnitude of MICI effect on sea-level rise due to thinning of ice sheets and buttressing forces exerted on potentially failing cliffs. This paper reviews the factors that control MICI with the goal of identifying priorities for modern ice sheet studies to better bound the estimates.

Modelling discontinuity control on the development of Hell\u2019s Mouth landslide

This paper focuses on numerical modelling and back analysis of the Hell’s Mouth landslide to provide improved understanding of the evolution of a section of the north coast of Cornwall, UK. Discontinuity control is highlighted through the formation of a ‘zawn’ or inlet, the occurrence of two successive landslides and evidence of ongoing instability through opening of tension cracks behind the cliff top. Several integrated remote sensing (RS) techniques have been utilised for data acquisition to characterise the slope geometry, landslide features and tension crack extent and development. In view of the structural control on the rock slope failures, a 3D distinct element method (DEM) code incorporating a discrete fracture network and rigid blocks has been adopted for the stability analysis. The onset and opening of tension cracks behind the modelled slope failure zones has also been studied by analysing the displacements of two adjoining landslide blocks, between which, a joint-related tension crack developed. In addition, a sensitivity analysis has been undertaken to provide further insight into the influence of key discontinuity parameters (i.e. dip, dip direction, persistence and friction angle) on the stability of this section of the coastline. Numerical modelling and field observations indicate that block removal and preferential erosion along a fault resulted in the formation of the inlet. The development of the inlet provides daylighting conditions for discontinuities exposed on the inlet slope wall, triggering the initial landslide which occurred on 23rd September 2011. Numerical modelling, and evidence from a video of the initial landslide, suggests that the cliff instability is characterised by a combination of planar sliding, wedge sliding and toppling modes of failure controlled by the discrete fracture network geometry.

Geomorphological Approach to Cliff Instability in Volcanic Slopes: A Case Study from the Gulf of Naples (Southern Italy)

This paper deals with the problem of cliff stability and proposes a geomorphological zonation of a cliff using a sector of the Posillipo promontory (named the Coroglio-Trentaremi sea cliff, Italy), in the Campi Flegrei coastal area, as a case study. A detailed geological and geomorphological analysis was carried out, by combining field work with analysis of detailed scale topographic maps, orthophoto, and stratigraphical data from deep boreholes. Field and borehole data, together with structural data collected in seven different stations along the cliff, allowed us to derive six geological cross-sections and to reconstruct the complex stratigraphical and structural setting of the cliff. Geomorphological analysis focused on the detection of the main geomorphological factors predisposing to cliff instability. We selected the most significant factors and divided them into two groups: factors influencing landslide intensity and factors influencing cliff instability. Then, by means of a heuristic approach, we constructed a matrix that was used to derive a map showing the geomorphological zonation of the sea cliff. This map may enable to development of a reliable scenario of cliff instability and consequent retreat, which may be useful either to plan intervention works in the most critical areas or to organize prevention plans aimed at risk mitigation.

Transition to marine ice cliff instability controlled by ice thickness gradients and velocity.

Portions of ice sheets grounded deep beneath sea level can disintegrate if tall ice cliffs at the ice-ocean boundary start to collapse under their own weight. This process, called marine ice cliff instability, could lead to catastrophic retreat of sections of West Antarctica on decadal-to-century time scales. Here we use a model that resolves flow and failure of ice to show that dynamic thinning can slow or stabilize cliff retreat, but when ice thickness increases rapidly upstream from the ice cliff, there is a transition to catastrophic collapse. However, even if vulnerable locations like Thwaites Glacier start to collapse, small resistive forces from sea-ice and calved debris can slow down or arrest retreat, reducing the potential for sustained ice sheet collapse.

Application of Structure-from-Motion Terrestrial Photogrammetry to the Assessment of Coastal Cliff Erosion Processes in SW Spain

Del Río, L.; Posanski, D.; Gracia, F.J. and Pérez-Romero, A.M., 2020. Application of structure-from-motion terrestrial photogrammetry to the assessment of coastal cliff erosion processes in SW Spain. In: Malvárez, G. and Navas, F. (eds.), Global Coastal Issues of 2020. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 95, pp. 1057–1061. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.The episodic and irregular nature of cliff changes makes their assessment a challenging task, essential in order to cope with risks related to cliff erosion. In this work, structure-from-motion terrestrial photogrammetry was used to measure erosion processes in the Torre Bermeja cliff in SW Spain, where cliff instability poses a threat to people walking along the fronting beach. Two sites were investigated on 14 photogrammetric surveys conducted along a 9-month period in order to detect morphological changes in relation to external forces. The erosive events at both sites showed a strong episodic character, with some short periods reflecting intensive erosion and long periods of stability. Average figures for the observation period indicate a mean retreat of 2.8 mm/day at one of the sites and 0.5 mm/day at the other site. The differences were attributed to variations in the lithology and a higher wave exposure of the first site, due to a smaller fronting beach. A comparison of erosion and meteorological data of the survey period showed a positive correlation between mean retreat and maximum rainfall intensity. However, the storms with highest wave heights did not significantly affect the cliff foot, as most wave-related erosion occurred when a modal storm coincided with a high spring tidal range. Therefore, rainfall can be considered as the trigger for most of the erosion events at the study site, although the unstable conditions required for large-scale collapses are generated by wave attack in the first place. In this respect, it is assumed that climate change will lead to higher retreat rates in the investigated cliff, due to a rising mean sea level and a higher frequency of heavy rainfall events.

Simulated last deglaciation of the Barents Sea Ice Sheet primarily driven by oceanic conditions

The Barents Sea Ice Sheet was part of an interconnected complex of ice sheets, collectively referred to as the Eurasian Ice Sheet, which covered north-westernmost Europe, Russia and the Barents Sea during the Last Glacial Maximum (around 21 ky BP). Due to common geological features, the Barents Sea component of this ice complex is seen as a paleo-analogue for the present-day West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Investigating key processes driving the last deglaciation of the Barents Sea Ice Sheet represents an important tool to interpret recent observations in Antarctica over the multi-millennial temporal scale of glaciological changes. We present results from a perturbed physics ensemble of ice sheet model simulations of the last deglaciation of the Barents Sea Ice Sheet, forced with transient atmospheric and oceanic conditions derived from AOGCM simulations. The ensemble of transient simulations is evaluated against the data-based DATED-1 reconstruction to construct minimum, maximum and average deglaciation scenarios. Despite a large model/data mismatch at the western and eastern ice sheet margins, the simulated and DATED-1 deglaciation scenarios agree well on the timing of the deglaciation of the central and northern Barents Sea. We find that the simulated deglaciation of the Barents Sea Ice Sheet is primarily driven by the oceanic forcing, with prescribed eustatic sea level rise amplifying the ice sheet sensitivity to sub-shelf melting over relatively short intervals. Our results highlight that the sub-shelf melting has a very strong control on the simulated grounding-line flux, showing that a slow, gradual ocean warming trend is capable of triggering sustained grounded ice discharge over multi-millennial timescales, even without taking into account marine ice sheet or ice cliff instability.

Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey

Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30–0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54–2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986–2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63–1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67–5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Sea cliff instability hazard assessment for coastal management in Chabahar, Iran

Hazards from sea cliff instabilities are increasing because of the growing human occupation in coastal areas. Assessment of cliff hazards is very important in order to develop appropriate coastal management plans. In this study, a semi-quantitative heuristic method was developed to assess instability hazard for rocky coasts at Chabahar (Iran) along the northern coastline of the Gulf of Oman. In this method, seven factors affecting cliff instability, including: wave exposure, cliff height, cliff slope, rock resistance, lithology, bathymetry and beach width, were used to calculate an instability hazard index, from which a hazard map was constructed for the study area. Results were validated by statistical analysis of the previous instabilities detected by comparing old and new satellite images. According to the instability hazard class and cliff height, a hazard zone from the top of cliffs was determined within which development is not recommended.

Investigation of cliff instability at Għajn Ħadid Tower (Selmun Promontory, Malta) by integrated passive seismic techniques

Għajn Ħadid Tower represents an important cultural heritage of Malta (Central Mediterranean Sea). This tower, built in 1658 on the Selmun Promontory on the northeast coast of the island, was severely damaged by the 1856 Crete earthquake (MW 7.7). The area where the tower ruins stand is involved in a significant landslide process of lateral spreading. During 2015 and 2016, engineering geological surveys and passive seismic measurements were carried out to evaluate the main resonance frequencies of the promontory and monitor the gravity-induced instability process. Seismic ambient noise measurements in the area of the tower show significant horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) resonance peaks at 3.3–3.5 Hz characterized by linearity and polarization of the particle motion. These features are not present in the measurements carried out on the stable zone and can be related to the vibrational behaviour of the unstable rock block. Additionally, a shear wave velocity profile for the area was obtained by using a seismic array. At the same time, two different approaches were tested for monitoring the landslide process: (i) a Seismic Navigating System (SNS) array detected 20 natural microseismic events caused by the ongoing landslide process; (ii) few-days continuous seismic noise measurements on the unstable rock block were used to carry out a preliminary study of the variation of specific parameters over time.