INTRODUCTION: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a clinical syndrome associated with high short-term mortality. Numerous models have been proposed to predict outcomes in ACLF patients, including novel ones by Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) ACLF Research Consortium (AARC), but their utility in a heterogeneous population of ACLF patients remains inconclusive. The study aims to assess the performance of established and newer models for predicting mortality of ACLF patients. METHODS: A retrospective study of 96 patients fulfilling either APASL or European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) criteria for ACLF admitted to a tertiary hospital in Singapore between 2004 and 2018 was performed. Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD)-Na, Chronic Liver Failure Consortium (CLIF)-SOFA, CLIF-C ACLF and AARC prognostic scores (MELD-lactate, AARC-ACLF) were calculated on days 1, 4, 7 of hospital admission and days 1, 4 of ICU admission. Outcomes assessed were survival to discharge without transplant, 30-day survival and 90-day survival. The scores were evaluated by measuring area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve at each time point and compared. RESULTS: 28 patients (29.2%) survived to discharge without transplant, 21 patients (21.9%) underwent urgent transplant and 47 patients (49%) died before discharge. 30-day transplant-free survival was 21.9% and 90-day survival was 19.8%. CTP, MELD-Na, MELD-lactate, CLIF-C ACLF and AARC-ACLF scores had high accuracy in predicting hospital mortality on day 4 admission (CTP D1 AUROC 0.642, D4 0.715; MELD-Na D1 0.607, D4 0.721; MELD-lactate D1 0.664, D4 0.861; CLIF-C ACLF D1 0.559, D4 0.697; AARC-ACLF D1 0.571, D4 0.747). CTP, MELD-Na and MELD-lactate scores also had good predictive utility on day 7 admission (CTP D7 0.684; MELD-Na 0.67; MELD-lactate 0.848). This held true regardless of whether APASL or EASL criteria was applied. In addition, the sequential change in CLIF-SOFA and CLIF-C ACLF scores from day 1 to day 4 was significantly associated with need for urgent transplant or death before discharge. CONCLUSION: CTP, MELD-Na and MELD-lactate scores are superior at prognosticating outcomes on day 4 and 7 of admission in our multi-ethnic Asian population. The trend of CLIF-SOFA and CLIF-C ACLF scores from day 1 to day 4 of admission may also contribute valuable information to our assessment of ACLF patients.
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