Classification Of Individual Consumption Research Articles

Comparison Of ARIMA And Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters Methods For Forecasting CPI In The Tegal City, Central Java

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an essential economic index that shows the level of prices for goods and services consumed by the public in a certain period in a specific region so that forecasting the ICP is needed to find out the pattern of economic movement in the area. The purpose of this study is to determine the forecasting rate for CPI from July 2021 to June 2022 by comparing two forecasting methods, i.e., ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters. The data used in this study is Tegal City CPI data for January 2014 - June 2021, with the year 2018 as the base year equals 100 with a time series of 90 observations. The backcasting technique was implemented to the CPI figures of January 2014 – December 2019 (Base Year 2012=100) to adjust the new Base Year following 2018 on Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (COICOP). The results from the two methods show that the Exponential Holt-Winters method has a minor Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value, which is 0.281 compared to the MAPE of ARIMA value of 0.311. Hence, the Exponential Holt-Winters Additive method is chosen as the best CPI forecasting model for Tegal City

The use of web-scraped data to analyze the dynamics of footwear prices

Aim/purpose – Web-scraping is a technique used to automatically extract data from websites. After the rise-up of online shopping, it allows the acquisition of information about prices of goods sold by retailers such as supermarkets or internet shops. This study examines the possibility of using web-scrapped data from one clothing store. It aims at comparing known price index formulas being implemented to the web-scraping case and verifying their sensitivity on the choice of data filter type. Design/methodology/approach – The author uses the price data scrapped from one of the biggest online shops in Poland. The data were obtained as part of eCPI (electronic Consumer Price Index) project conducted by the National Bank of Poland. The author decided to select three types of products for this analysis – female ballerinas, male shoes, and male oxfords to compare their prices in over one-year time period. Six price indexes were used for calculation – The Jevons and Dutot indexes with their chain and GEKS (acronym from the names of creators – Gini–Éltető–Köves–Szulc) versions. Apart from the analysis conducted on a full data set, the author introduced filters to remove outliers. Findings – Clothing and footwear are considered one of the most difficult groups of goods to measure price change indexes due to high product churn, which undermines the possibility to use the traditional Jevons and Dutot indexes. However, it is possible to use chained indexes and GEKS indexes instead. Still, these indexes are fairly sensitive to large price changes. As observed in case of both product groups, the results provided by the GEKS and chained versions of indexes were different, which could lead to conclu- sion that even though they are lending promising results, they could be better suited for other COICOP (Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose) groups. Research implications/limitations – The findings of the paper showed that usage of filters did not significantly reduce the difference between price indexes based on GEKS and chain formulas. Originality/value/contribution – The usage of web-scrapped data is a fairly new topic in the literature. Research on the possibility of using different price indexes provides useful insights for future usage of these data by statistics offices. Keywords: inflation, CPI, web-scraping, online shopping, big data. JEL Classification: C43, C49.

Struktura prywatnych wydatków na zdrowie na osobę w krajach UE w latach 2008–2018

Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP). Make health expenditure accepted in European Union statistics into three main categories: medical and pharmaceutical products, medical devices and equipment; outpatient and alternative medicine services, hospital and sanatorium services. This classification also applies to private households on health as part of consumption. The aim is to investigate the structure of health expenditure per capita in the EU-27 in the years 2008–2018.

Sectoral Price Divergence between Korea and Japan

This paper examines the persistent properties of 12 sectoral relative prices between Korea and Japan obtained following the Classification of Individual Consumption according to Purpose (COICOP) over the period of 1985-2016. Applying a new econometric method developed by Pesaran which controls for the cross-section dependence in a panel, we are not able to reject the hypothesis that the sectoral real exchange rates contain a common stochastic trend. On the other hand, the well-known panel unit root tests such as the IPS and LLC tests widely used by previous studies strongly reject the unit root hypothesis. Since the error term of the regression for our panel exhibits significant cross-section dependence, these opposite results justify that the use of the new econometric method is appropriate.

Dominant Patterns of Expenditure Among Older People in the United Kingdom: Segmenting the Older Consumer Using the Living Costs and Food Survey

Policy-makers and practitioners need a good understanding of older people’s expenditure and consumption to inform the design of policies and services that affect their lives. This paper uses data from the 2010 Living Costs and Food Survey to examine and explain levels and patterns of expenditure among households headed by someone aged 50 and over. Expenditure is defined based on 12 broad categories, which reflect the international standard ‘Classification of Individual Consumption according to Purpose’, and is equivalised to control for household size. We report the results of cluster analysis which segments older households depending on their predominant patterns of expenditure. CHAID (decision tree) analysis and bivariate analysis is then used to understand the profile of each cluster in relation to their demographic, socio-economic and other characteristics. Based on their patterns of expenditure, six distinct clusters of older households emerge from the analysis. The findings raise important questions for government policy in the UK in relation to the extent and nature of expenditure poverty among older consumers.

Revisiting Rebound Effects from Material Resource Use. Indications for Germany Considering Social Heterogeneity

In contrast to the original investigation by William Stanley Jevons, compensations of energy savings due to improved energy efficiency are mostly analyzed by providing energy consumption or greenhouse gas emissions. In support of a sustainable resource management, this paper analyzes so-called rebound effects based on resource use. Material flows and associated expenditures by households allow for calculating resource intensities and marginal propensities to consume. Marginal propensities to consume are estimated from data of the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) in order to account for indirect rebound effects for food, housing and mobility. Resource intensities are estimated in terms of total material requirements per household final consumption expenditures along the Classification of Individual Consumption according to Purpose (COICOP). Eventually, rebound effects are indicated on the basis of published saving scenarios in resource and energy demand for Germany. In sum, compensations due to rebound effects are lowest for food while the highest compensations are induced for mobility. This is foremost the result of a relatively high resource intensity of food and a relatively low resource intensity in mobility. Findings are provided by giving various propensity scenarios in order to cope with income differences in Germany. The author concludes that policies on resource conservation need to reconsider rebound effects under the aspect of social heterogeneity.

Changes in consumer's behavior of households in the Visegrad four countries in the period between 2007 and 2009

The onset of the economic crisis belongs to the years 2007 to 2009. This article evaluates the household consumption behaviour of European countries, especially in the Visegrad Four (V4), using consumption spending categories classified according to COICOP (Classification of Individual consumption by purpose) and using data available in the database of the European Commission, Eurostat. Available data include spending for the major commodities within the three years. The paper is devoted to the analysis of expenditure development, especially in the V4 countries and assesses whether there are any transfers of the shares between categories. The categories with the highest share of European household expenditures are: Food and non-alcoholic beverages, as well as Housing, water, gas and other fuels, transport. Furthermore, attention is concentrated, whether economic maturity of the V4 countries is reflected in the expenditure structure of selected countries. To search similarities in household consumption behaviour in EU countries, a cluster analysis is used. The results are shown in dendograms that help identify the differences among the individual EU states.

Development and subsequent comparison of the cost of living in different social groups in Czech Republic

This paper deals with development and subsequent comparison of the cost of living in different social groups in the Czech Republic. There is an analysis performed using data available from entry of the Czech Republic into the European Union till 2011. For this purpose, it will be interesting to track those measures in a timeline including the period before the last economic crisis, during the crisis as well as after this event. The economic crisis began in 2007 and has significantly affected living conditions of many people, who had to change their consumer behaviour or lifestyle. In the file used for the analysis, the individuals are divided into different social groups (i.e. employees, self-employed, pensioners and unemployed). The paper is focused on individuals according to the division of expenditure COICOP (Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose). As the second source of the performed analysis are taken the results of a sample survey EU-SILC (European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions) from 2005 till 2011. The paper considers mainly cost of living, but also household income because it is possible to determine from this indicator how much money households have left for other activities (as disposable income). The analysis is focused on whole set of individual households including low-income households at risk of poverty. According to widely used methodology within the European Union, households are considered to be at the risk of poverty if their income is lower than its median, which is 60%.