Circumpolar Current Transport Research Articles

Interbasin Differences in Interannual Variations of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current Transport

AbstractDespite the critical role of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) in global convey belt, its temporal variability and spatial difference are poorly investigated due to the lack of full‐depth observations. This study quantitatively investigates the interannual variability of the ACC transport in different basins using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) ocean bottom pressure (OBP) data and In Situ Analysis System 17 (ISAS17) temperature and salinity fields. The results reveal that the interannual variation differs significantly in the Indian basin, the Pacific and Atlantic basins, and is likely caused by the meridional distribution of the wind stress curl, rather than the westerly winds. The interannual variation is correlated with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in the Indian basin, but also modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific and Atlantic basins. The results are further verified by a mass conservation ocean model with elaborating the important influence of both local and global atmospheric variability on the spatial‐temporal variability of the ACC. The difference of the ACC transports in the major basins might be ascribed to the respective meridional transport in each basin.

Optimally growing initial error for predicting the sudden shift in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport and its application to targeted observation

Optimally growing initial error for predicting the sudden shift in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport and its application to targeted observation

Changes in Global Ocean Circulation due to Isopycnal Diffusion

Abstract We investigate changes in the ocean circulation due to the variation of isopycnal diffusivity (κiso) in a global non-eddy-resolving model. Although isopycnal diffusion is thought to have minor effects on interior density gradients, the model circulation shows a surprisingly large sensitivity to the changes: with increasing κiso, the strength of the Atlantic residual overturning circulation (AMOC) and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport weaken. At high latitudes, the isopycnal diffusion diffuses temperature and salinity upward and poleward, and at low latitudes downward close to the surface. Increasing isopycnal diffusivity increases the meridional isopycnal fluxes whose meridional gradient is equatorward, hence leading to a negative contribution to the flux divergence in the tracer equations and predominant cooling and freshening equatorward of 40°. The effect on temperature overcompensates the countering effect of salinity diffusion, such that the meridional density differences decrease, along with which ACC and AMOC decrease. We diagnose the adjustment process to the new equilibrium with increased isopycnal diffusion to assess how the other terms in the tracer equations react to the increased κiso. It reveals that around ±40° latitude, the cooling induced by the increased isopycnal flux is only partly compensated by warming by advection, explaining the net cooling. Overall, the results emphasize the importance of isopycnal diffusion on ocean circulation and dynamics, and hence the necessity of its careful representation in models. Significance Statement The effect of mixing by mesoscale eddies, represented as diffusion along surfaces of constant density in models, on the ocean circulation is not well understood. Here, we show that an increase in the eddy diffusivity in different setups of a global ocean model leads to a surprisingly large change of the ocean circulation. The strength of the Atlantic overturning circulation and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current decrease. We find that the interior ocean becomes cooler and fresher and that the temperature effect on density dominates over salinity, resulting in a decrease in the density gradients. Our results point out the importance of eddy diffusion on ocean circulation, and hence the necessity of its correct representation in ocean and climate models.

The Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Response to Antarctic Sea Ice Loss

Abstract Antarctic sea ice is projected to decrease in response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Limited studies so far have examined the coupled atmosphere–ocean response to Antarctic sea ice loss. Here, we isolate the response to Antarctic sea ice loss in the atmosphere and ocean using bespoke sea ice albedo perturbation experiments with HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL, provide the first detailed examination of the global ocean response, and quantify the importance of atmosphere–ocean coupling, through comparison to uncoupled experiments with prescribed Antarctic sea ice loss. Lower-tropospheric warming and moistening over regions of sea ice loss and the nearby Southern Ocean are simulated in both coupled and uncoupled configurations but are of greater magnitude in the coupled model. A weakening and equatorward shift of the tropospheric westerly jet are simulated in both configurations, but are also larger in the coupled model. Ocean coupling allows the warming response to spread northward, and by poleward atmospheric energy transport, back to the Antarctic interior. Warmer tropical sea surface temperatures enhance atmospheric convection, driving upper-tropospheric warming and triggering atmospheric teleconnections to the extratropics, including a weakened Aleutian low. A 20% reduction in Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport and a weakening of the shallow tropical convergence cell are simulated. Surface waters warm and freshen globally, becoming more stratified and stable in the Southern Ocean, with similar changes, but of lesser magnitude, in the Arctic Ocean, where sea ice declines. Our results suggest that the climate effects of Antarctic sea ice loss stretch from pole to pole and from the heights of the tropical troposphere to the depths of the Southern Ocean.

Acute Sensitivity of Global Ocean Circulation and Heat Content to Eddy Energy Dissipation Timescale

AbstractThe global ocean overturning circulation, critically dependent on the global density stratification, plays a central role in regulating climate evolution. While it is well known that the global stratification profile exhibits a strong dependence to Southern Ocean dynamics and in particular to wind and buoyancy forcing, we demonstrate here that the stratification is also acutely sensitive to the mesoscale eddy energy dissipation timescale. Within the context of a global ocean circulation model with an energy constrained mesoscale eddy parameterization, it is shown that modest variations in the eddy energy dissipation timescale lead to significant variations in key metrics relating to ocean circulation, namely the Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation strength, and global ocean heat content, over long timescales. The results highlight a need to constrain uncertainties associated with eddy energy dissipation for climate model projections over centennial timescales and also for paleoclimate simulations over millennial timescales.

Optimal Precursors Triggering Sudden Shifts in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current Transport Through Drake Passage

AbstractDue to the high nonlinearity, the accurate prediction of the Antarctic circumpolar current (ACC) transport is still challenging. Using the eddy‐permitting regional ocean modeling system and the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach, the sudden shift in the ACC transport through Drake Passage (DP) is investigated by exploring its optimal precursor (OPR). Here, the sudden shift in the ACC transport is defined as a fluctuation exceeding double STD (∼16 Sv; 1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1) within 30 days. The results indicate that the OPRs for all three cases exhibit specific structures in the middle DP (58°–62°S, 72°–64°W) at the depth of 1,000–3,000 m, implying that the ACC transport is most sensitive to the initial perturbations there. The OPRs' evolutions show similar features: the OPR for each case triggers an eddy‐like dipole perturbation with a northern cyclone and a southern anticyclone, leading to a sudden reduction in the ACC transport of ∼40 Sv. It is verified that the density components in the OPRs determine such evolution processes. Furthermore, baroclinic instability is diagnosed to play a dominant role in the development of OPRs by analyzing the perturbed kinetic energy budget. This study suggests that the deep‐layer density perturbations in the Southern Ocean should be carefully monitored when considering the short‐range prediction of the ACC transport.

Testing Methods for Reconstructing Glacial Antarctic Circumpolar Current Transport in an Isotope‐Enabled Climate Model

AbstractThe Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) plays a vital role in the interbasin exchange of ocean properties. A robust method to reconstruct the ACC baroclinic transport is helpful to assess the ACC's sensitivity to a changed climate. Here we test the reconstruction methods at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ∼20 ka) using end‐member water masses in a fully coupled, isotope‐enabled Community Earth System Model. Model results suggest that the density profile at the northern side of ocean margins across the ACC can be reconstructed well from end‐member water masses of Subtropical Surface Water (STSW), Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), and Lower Circumpolar Deep Water. One additional pore fluid observation at 1,000 m can substantially improve transport reconstruction and is essential to constrain the sign of change in ACC transport during the LGM. Moreover, the uncertainty in transport calculation is large when salinities for STSW and AAIW are reconstructed independently based on the δ18Osw‐Salinity relationship of surface and intermediate waters in the South Indian Ocean. More direct measurements of LGM temperature and salinity may allow better transport reconstruction.

Southern Ocean polynyas in CMIP6 models

Abstract. Polynyas facilitate air–sea fluxes, impacting climate-relevant properties such as sea ice formation and deep water production. Despite their importance, polynyas have been poorly represented in past generations of climate models. Here we present a method to track the presence, frequency and spatial distribution of polynyas in the Southern Ocean in 27 models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and two satellite-based sea ice products. Only half of the 27 models form open-water polynyas (OWPs), and most underestimate their area. As in satellite observations, three models show episodes of high OWP activity separated by decades of no OWP, while other models unrealistically create OWPs nearly every year. In contrast, the coastal polynya area is overestimated in most models, with the least accurate representations occurring in the models with the coarsest horizontal resolution. We show that the presence or absence of OWPs is linked to changes in the regional hydrography, specifically the linkages between polynya activity with deep water convection and/or the shoaling of the upper water column thermocline. Models with an accurate Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport and wind stress curl have too frequent OWPs. Biases in polynya representation continue to exist in climate models, which has an impact on the regional ocean circulation and ventilation that should be addressed. However, emerging iceberg discharge schemes, more adequate vertical grid type or overflow parameterisation are anticipated to improve polynya representations and associated climate prediction in the future.

Effects of Buoyancy and Wind Forcing on Southern Ocean Climate Change

AbstractObservations show that since the 1950s, the Southern Ocean has stored a large amount of anthropogenic heat and has freshened at the surface. These patterns can be attributed to two components of surface forcing: poleward-intensified westerly winds and increased buoyancy flux from freshwater and heat. Here we separate the effects of these two forcing components by using a novel partial-coupling technique. We show that buoyancy forcing dominates the overall response in the temperature and salinity structure of the Southern Ocean. Wind stress change results in changes in subsurface temperature and salinity that are closely related to intensified residual meridional overturning circulation. As an important result, we show that buoyancy and wind forcing result in opposing changes in salinity: the wind-induced surface salinity increase due to upwelling of saltier subsurface water offsets surface freshening due to amplification of the global hydrological cycle. Buoyancy and wind forcing further lead to different vertical structures of Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport change; buoyancy forcing causes an ACC transport increase (3.1 ± 1.6 Sv; 1 Sv ≡ 106m3s−1) by increasing the meridional density gradient across the ACC in the upper 2000 m, while the wind-induced response is more barotropic, with the whole column transport increased by 8.7 ± 2.3 Sv. While previous research focused on the wind effect on ACC intensity, we show that surface horizontal current acceleration within the ACC is dominated by buoyancy forcing. These results shed light on how the Southern Ocean might change under global warming, contributing to more reliable future projections.

Climate Response to Increasing Antarctic Iceberg and Ice Shelf Melt

AbstractMass loss from the Antarctic continent is increasing; however, climate models either assume a constant mass loss rate or return snowfall over land to the ocean to maintain equilibrium. Numerous studies have investigated sea ice and ocean sensitivity to this assumption and reached different conclusions, possibly due to different representations of melt fluxes. The coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice model, HadGEM3-GC3.1, includes a realistic spatial distribution of coastal melt fluxes, a new ice shelf cavity parameterization, and explicit representation of icebergs. This configuration makes it appropriate to revisit how increasing melt fluxes influence ocean and sea ice and to assess whether responses to melt from ice shelves and icebergs are distinguishable. We present results from simulated scenarios of increasing meltwater fluxes and show that these drive sea ice increases and, for increasing ice shelf melt, a decline in Antarctic Bottom Water formation. In our experiments, the mixed layer around the Antarctic coast deepens in response to rising ice shelf meltwater and shallows in response to stratification driven by iceberg melt. We find similar surface temperature and salinity responses to increasing meltwater fluxes from ice shelves and icebergs, but midlayer waters warm to greater depths and farther north when ice shelf melt is present. We show that as meltwater fluxes increase, snowfall becomes more likely at lower latitudes and Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport declines. These insights are helpful for interpretation of climate simulations that assume constant mass loss rates and demonstrate the importance of representing increasing melt rates for both ice shelves and icebergs.

Representation of Southern Ocean Properties across Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Generations: CMIP3 to CMIP6

AbstractThe air–sea exchange of heat and carbon in the Southern Ocean (SO) plays an important role in mediating the climate state. The dominant role the SO plays in storing anthropogenic heat and carbon is a direct consequence of the unique and complex ocean circulation that exists there. Previous generations of climate models have struggled to accurately represent key SO properties and processes that influence the large-scale ocean circulation. This has resulted in low confidence ascribed to twenty-first-century projections of the state of the SO from previous generations of models. This analysis provides a detailed assessment of the ability of models contributed to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to represent important observationally based SO properties. Additionally, a comprehensive overview of CMIP6 performance relative to CMIP3 and CMIP5 is presented. CMIP6 models show improved performance in the surface wind stress forcing, simulating stronger and less equatorward-biased wind fields, translating into an improved representation of the Ekman upwelling over the Drake Passage latitudes. An increased number of models simulate an Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport within observational uncertainty relative to previous generations; however, several models exhibit extremely weak transports. Generally, the upper SO remains biased warm and fresh relative to observations, and Antarctic sea ice extent remains poorly represented. While generational improvement is found in many metrics, persistent systematic biases are highlighted that should be a priority during model development. These biases need to be considered when interpreting projected trends or biogeochemical properties in this region.

Antarctic Circumpolar Current Transport Through Drake Passage: What Can We Learn From Comparing High‐Resolution Model Results to Observations?

AbstractUncertainty exists in the time‐mean total transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), the world's strongest ocean current. The two most recent observational programs in Drake Passage, DRAKE and cDrake, yielded transports of 141 and 173.3 Sv, respectively. In this paper, we use a realistic 1/12° global ocean simulation to interpret these observational estimates and reconcile their differences. We first show that the modeled ACC transport in the upper 1,000 m is in excellent agreement with repeat shipboard acoustic Doppler current profiler (SADCP) transects and that the exponentially decaying transport profile in the model is consistent with the profile derived from repeat hydrographic data. By further comparing the model results to the cDrake and DRAKE observations, we argue that the modeled 157.3 Sv transport, that is, approximately the average of the cDrake and DRAKE estimates, is actually representative of the time‐mean ACC transport through the Drake Passage. The cDrake experiment overestimated the barotropic contribution in part because the array undersampled the deep recirculation southwest of the Shackleton Fracture Zone, whereas the surface geostrophic currents used in the DRAKE estimate yielded a weaker near‐surface transport than implied by the SADCP data. We also find that the modeled baroclinic and barotropic transports are not correlated; thus, monitoring either baroclinic or barotropic transport alone may be insufficient to assess the temporal variability of the total ACC transport.

Twenty-five years of Mercator ocean reanalysis GLORYS12 at Drake Passage: Velocity assessment and total volume transport

Velocities in Drake Passage from the 25-year GLORYS12 Mercator Ocean reanalysis were compared with satellite altimetry-derived surface velocities and independent in-situ velocity measurements from the DRAKE (2006–2009) and cDrake (2007–2011) experiments. GLORYS12 assimilates satellite along-track sea level anomalies and, as expected, model velocities are in rather good agreement with gridded altimetry derived velocities (r ~ 0.5, above 99% confidence level). GLORYS12 velocities also compared well with the current-meter data from the DRAKE (in the water column) and cDrake (50 m above seafloor) experiments in terms of means and standard deviations; most correlations between the reanalysis and directly measured velocity time series were significant (r ~ 0.5 for DRAKE and r ~ 0.4 for cDrake, above 99% confidence level). We used the GLORYS12 reanalysis to examine the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) total volume transport across three sections in Drake Passage. The 25 years of the ACC total volume transport has a mean of 155 ± 3 Sv and a standard deviation of 6.7 Sv. Annual mean values span over a range of 12 Sv. The spectrum of the GLORYS12 total transport time series shows energy peaks (above 95% confidence level) at the intraseasonal, semi-annual and annual periods and no significant low-frequency variations (beyond 2 years) or trend, in agreement with previous studies. This first assessment of GLORYS12 velocities in Drake Passage is very encouraging for monitoring the regional variability of the ACC.

Sensitivity of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport to surface buoyancy conditions in the North Atlantic

The sensitivity of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport to surface buoyancy conditions in the North Atlantic is investigated using a sector configuration of an ocean general circulation model. We find that the sensitivity of the ACC transport is significantly weaker than previous studies. We attribute this difference to the different depth of the simulated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Because a fast restoring buoyancy boundary condition is used that strongly constrains the surface buoyancy structure at the Southern Ocean surface, the ACC transport is determined by the isopycnal slope that is coupled to the overturning circulation in the Southern Ocean. By changing the surface buoyancy in the North Atlantic, the shared buoyancy contour between the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean is varied, and consequently the strength of the overturning circulation is modified. For different depth of the simulated overturning circulation, the response of the ACC transport to changes in the strength of the overturning circulation varies substantially. This is illustrated in two conceptual models based on the residual-mean theory of overturning circulation. Our results imply that the sensitivity of the ACC transport to surface forcing in the North Atlantic could vary substantially in different models depending on the simulated vertical structure of the overturning circulation.

ACC Meanders, Energy Transfer, and Mixed Barotropic–Baroclinic Instability

AbstractAlong-stream variations in the dynamics of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) impact heat and tracer transport, regulate interbasin exchange, and influence closure of the overturning circulation. Topography is primarily responsible for generating deviations from zonal-mean properties, mainly through standing meanders associated with regions of high eddy kinetic energy. Here, an idealized channel model is used to explore the spatial distribution of energy exchange and its relationship to eddy geometry, as characterized by both eddy momentum and eddy buoyancy fluxes. Variations in energy exchange properties occur not only between standing meander and quasi-zonal jet regions, but throughout the meander itself. Both barotropic and baroclinic stability properties, as well as the magnitude of energy exchange terms, undergo abrupt changes along the path of the ACC. These transitions are captured by diagnosing eddy fluxes of energy and by adopting the eddy geometry framework. The latter, typically applied to barotropic stability properties, is applied here in the depth–along-stream plane to include information about both barotropic and baroclinic stability properties of the flow. These simulations reveal that eddy momentum fluxes, and thus barotropic instability, play a leading role in the energy budget within a standing meander. This result suggests that baroclinic instability alone cannot capture the dynamics of ACC standing meanders, a challenge for models where eddy fluxes are parameterized.

Bottom Temperatures in Drake Passage

AbstractLong time series of bottom temperatures in the Southern Ocean are rare. The cDrake array with over 40 current- and pressure-recording inverted echo sounders, moored across Drake Passage to monitor the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) variability and transport, measured temperature at 1 and 50 m above the seafloor at depths ≥ 3500 m and at the southern continental margin. The 4-yr dataset provided an opportunity to examine the temporal and spatial scales of bottom temperature variability. High variability was observed; ranges were 0.5°–0.9°C in the northern passage and 0.3°–0.6°C in the southern passage. Standard deviations in the two regions were 0.1°–0.15°C and <0.05°C, respectively. Meandering of the ACC with its deep-reaching thermocline accounted for up to 50% of the observed bottom temperature variance. Northern passage temperatures, spaced less than 40 km apart, were correlated with each other, while those in the southern portion, separated by 60–70 km, were not. A gap in the West Scotia Ridge provided a deep passageway for cold water to reach the northern passage from the southern basin; an extreme event during February 2008 brought bottom waters with in situ temperatures below 0.38°C as far north as 57°S. Strong vertical temperature gradients between 1 and 50 m above the bottom occurred intermittently due to intrusions associated with deep eddy circulations arising beneath the meandering jet and to flow over steep topography, permitting the generation of internal waves. High variability in temperature on interannual time scales requires record lengths of 13–17 yr to estimate long-term trends reliably.

Climatic variability of transport in the upper layer of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current from hydrological and satellite data

Based on the satellite altimetry dataset of sea level anomalies, the climatic hydrological database World Ocean Atlas-2009, ocean reanalysis ECMWF ORA-S3, and wind velocity components from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, the interannual variability of Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport in the ocean upper layer is investigated for the period 1959–2008, and estimations of correlative connections between ACC transport and wind velocity components are performed. It has been revealed that the maximum (by absolute value) linear trends of ACC transport over the last 50 years are observed in the date-line region, in the Western and Eastern Atlantic and the western part of the Indian Ocean. The greatest increase in wind velocity for this period for the zonal component is observed in Drake Passage, at Greenwich meridian, in the Indian Ocean near 90° E, and in the date-line region; for the meridional component, it is in the Western and Eastern Pacific, in Drake Passage, and to the south of Africa. It has been shown that the basic energy-carrying frequencies of interannual variability of ACC transport and wind velocity components, as well as their correlative connections, correspond to the periods of basic large-scale modes of atmospheric circulation: multidecadal and interdecadal oscillations, Antarctic Circumpolar Wave, Southern Annual Mode, and Southern Oscillation. A significant influence of the wind field on the interannual variability of ACC transport is observed in the Western Pacific (140° E–160° W) and Eastern Pacific; Drake Passage and Western Atlantic (90°–30° W); in the Eastern Atlantic and Western Indian Ocean (10°–70° E). It has been shown in the Pacific Ocean that the ACC transport responds to changes of the meridional wind more promptly than to changes of the zonal wind.

Mean Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport measured in Drake Passage

AbstractThe Antarctic Circumpolar Current is an important component of the global climate system connecting the major ocean basins as it flows eastward around Antarctica, yet due to the paucity of data, it remains unclear how much water is transported by the current. Between 2007 and 2011 flow through Drake Passage was continuously monitored with a line of moored instrumentation with unprecedented horizontal and temporal resolution. Annual mean near‐bottom currents are remarkably stable from year to year. The mean depth‐independent or barotropic transport, determined from the near‐bottom current meter records, was 45.6 sverdrup (Sv) with an uncertainty of 8.9 Sv. Summing the mean barotropic transport with the mean baroclinic transport relative to zero at the seafloor of 127.7 Sv gives a total transport through Drake Passage of 173.3 Sv. This new measurement is 30% larger than the canonical value often used as the benchmark for global circulation and climate models.

South Atlantic interbasin exchanges of mass, heat, salt and anthropogenic carbon

The exchange of mass, heat, salt and anthropogenic carbon (Cant) between the South Atlantic, south of 24°S, and adjacent ocean basins is estimated from hydrographic data obtained during 2008–2009 using an inverse method. Transports of anthropogenic carbon are calculated across the western (Drake Passage), eastern (30°E) and northern (24°S) boundaries. The freshwater overturning transport of 0.09Sv is southward, consistent with an overturning circulation that exports freshwater from the North Atlantic, and consistent with a bistable Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC), under conditions of excess freshwater perturbation. At 30°E, net eastward Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport, south of the Subtropical Front, is compensated by a 15.9±2.3Sv westward flow along the Antarctic boundary. The region as a whole is a substantial sink for atmospheric anthropogenic carbon of 0.51±0.37PgCyr−1, of which 0.18±0.12PgCyr−1 accumulates and is stored within the water column. At 24°S, a 20.2Sv meridional overturning is associated with a 0.11PgCyr−1 Cant overturning. The remainder is transported into the Atlantic Ocean north of 24°S (0.28±0.16PgCyr−1) and Indian sector of Southern Ocean (1.12±0.43PgCyr−1), having been enhanced by inflow through Drake Passage (1.07±0.44PgCyr−1). This underlines the importance of the South Atlantic as a crucial element of the anthropogenic carbon sink in the global oceans.

Antarctic density stratification and the strength of the circumpolar current during the Last Glacial Maximum

The interaction between ocean circulation and biological processes in the Southern Ocean is thought to be a major control on atmospheric carbon dioxide content over glacial cycles. A better understanding of stratification and circulation in the Southern Ocean during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) provides information that will help us to assess these scenarios. First, we evaluate the link between Southern Ocean stratification and circulation states in a suite of climate model simulations. While simulated Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport varies widely (80–350 Sverdrup (Sv)), it co-varies with horizontal and vertical stratification and the formation of the southern deep water. We then test the LGM simulations against available data from paleoceanographic proxies, which can be used to assess the density stratification and ACC transport south of Australia. The paleoceanographic data suggest a moderate increase in the Southern Ocean stratification and the ACC strength during the LGM. Even with the relatively large uncertainty in the proxy-based estimates, extreme scenarios exhibited by some climate models with ACC transports of greater than 250 Sv and highly saline Antarctic Bottom Water are highly unlikely.