Response rates for Immune checkpoint blocker (ICB) monotherapy in melanoma patients with non-chronic sun damage subtype, which is predominant in the Asian population, is relatively modest (Cancer Res Treat. 2020 Feb 13. https://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2019.598). The use of dual ICB in patients with advanced or metastatic melanoma is controversial, mostly due to reported toxicity. Emerging data have suggested that combining ICB with radiotherapy (RT) could be a promising strategy. However, clinicians need better tools to identify which melanoma patients are likely to benefit from either monotherapy or combination-based approach. We retrospectively reviewed the records of 134 patients with metastatic or advanced melanoma who received ICB monotherapy between 2014 and 2018: acral/mucosal 80%, uveal 16.4%, and chronic-sun damage subtype 3.7%. Various clinical and therapeutic features were evaluated, and the multivariable Cox regression model for overall survival (OS) was used to identify potential prognostic factors. Patients were grouped according to the number of factors using the identified prognostic factors. With a median follow-up of 13.7 months (range, 1.6–60.2 months), the median progression-free survival (PFS) was 3.7 months in all patients. In multivariable analysis for OS, more advanced M stage (M1c/d vs. M1a/b; HR, 1.82; p = .022), development of treatment-related lymphopenia (<1000 cells/μL; HR, 1.89, p = .011), and elevated baseline LDH level (HR, 2.61; p<.001) were significantly associated with dismal treatment outcome. In multivariable analysis for PFS, more advanced M stage (M1c/d vs. M1a/b; HR, 1.59; p = .025), development of treatment-related lymphopenia (<1000 cells/μL; HR, 1.69, p = .012), and elevated baseline LDH level (HR, 2.68; p<.001) were significantly associated with dismal treatment outcome. Development of immune-related adverse events (vitiligo or hypothyroidism) within 6 months showed a trend toward better OS (HR, 2.86, p = .080), but not PFS. Using these four clinically practical indicators, we grouped patients into 4 groups according to the number of risk factors. In patients with 0-1, 2, 3, and 4 risk factors, the 2-year OSs were 79.7%, 42.1%, 15.3%, and 5.9%, respectively (p<.001), and the median PFSs were 8.6 months, 4.4 months, 2.8 months, and 2.0 months, respectively (p<.001). Although further validation is needed, the easily accessible early clinical biomarkers for OS were M stage, treatment-related lymphopenia, development of immune-related vitiligo/hypothyroidism, and elevated baseline LDH level. Better risk stratifying melanoma patients is helpful in defining the role of a combination approach, including our phase II study (NCT04017897).
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