A thermodynamic calculation was carried out to predict the behavior and speciation of heavy metals (HMs), Pb, Zn, Cu, and Cd, during municipal solid waste (MSW) incineration with the different moisture levels. The calculation was based on the minimization of the total Gibbs free energy of the multi-components and multi-phases closed system reaching chemical equilibrium. The calculation also indicated the reaction directions and tendencies of HMs components. The impacts of chlorine additives (No PVC, 1%PVC, and 5%PVC) and moisture on the behavior of HMs were investigated at different temperature levels in the system (750°C, 950°C, and 1150°C). Furthermore, because the incineration temperature falls down with the increase in moisture in waste, the co-influence of moisture and temperature in combusting MSW on the HMs was also studied with the given chlorine (as 1%PVC+0.5%NaCl). The results showed that in the non-chlorine system, the impact of the moisture on Pb, Zn, and Cu was not significant, and the ratio of compound transformation was less than 10%, except the Cd compounds at 950°C and 1150°C. In the system with low chlorine (as 1%PVC) at constant temperature, the chlorides of HMs (Cd, Pb, Zn, and Cu) transferred to oxides, and when the content of chlorine rose up (as 5%PVC), the ratio of the chlorides of HMs (Cd, Pb, Zn, and Cu) transferring to oxides fell down noticeably. When the moisture varied together with the temperature, the Zn and Cu compounds transferred from chlorides to oxides with increase in moisture as well as decrease in temperature. At the temperature of 700–1000°C, the impact of temperature on Pb and Cd was little and the moisture was the main factor; while at the temperature of 1000–1200°C, the impact of increase in moisture and decrease in temperature on Pb and Cd was almost equal and reversed.