Chironomid-based Temperature Reconstruction Research Articles

Climate change drove the route shift of the ancient Silk Road in two distinct ways

Although climate change has convincingly been linked to the evolution of human civilization on different temporal scales, its role in influencing the spatial patterns of ancient civilizations has rarely been investigated. The northward shift of the ancient Silk Road (SR) route from the Tarim Basin (TB) to the Junggar Basin during ∼420–850 CE provides the opportunity to investigate the relationship between climate change and the spatial evolution of human societies. Here, we use a new high-resolution chironomid-based temperature reconstruction from arid China, combined with hydroclimatic and historical datasets, to assess the possible effects of climate fluctuations on the shift of the ancient SR route. We found that a cooling/drying climate in the TB triggered the SR route shift during ∼420–600 CE. However, a warming/wetting climate during ∼600–850 CE did not inhibit this shift, but instead promoted it, because of the favorable climate-induced geopolitical conflicts between the Tubo Kingdom and the Tang Dynasty in the TB. Our findings reveal two distinct ways in which climate change drove the spatial evolution of human civilization, and they demonstrate the flexibility of societal responses to climate change.

Chironomid-based temperature and environmental reconstructions of the Last Glacial Termination in southern Bohemia, Czech Republic

We present a new chironomid record from sediments of former Lake Švarcenberk in South Bohemia (412 m asl, Czech Republic), located in the oceanic-to-continental macroclimatic transitional zone of eastern Central Europe. We provide estimates of Weichselian Late Glacial and Early Holocene (ca. 15–8 ka BP) mean July air temperatures on the basis of changes in the fossil assemblage using a joint Norwegian-Swiss transfer function. In our study, the climate was found to be relatively cold during the Late Pleniglacial, with July temperatures ranging between 11.2 and 12.3 °C. With the exception of the youngest section of this interval, temperatures during the Bølling-Allerød interstadial were relatively stable and warm, with values around 13.3–14.5 °C. During the Younger Dryas (YD), July temperatures varied between 12.7 and 16 °C, and these particular results are in agreement with other climatic reconstructions from the central to the eastern part of the European continent showing no or moderate summer temperature decrease during the YD, or even a slightly warming trend. A relatively warm and climatically stable early YD phase was followed by a variable and overall cooler younger phase. At the beginning of the Early Holocene, our reconstructed July temperatures increased to 17.7 °C. We demonstrate that general patterns of temperature changes inferred from chironomids during the Last Glacial Termination are similar to various multi-proxy reconstructions in Europe but we observe two unusually strong and abrupt cooling events: one that may be linked with the Gerzensee oscillation at the end of the Bølling-Allerød Interstadial and another that probably corresponds to the Preboreal Oscillation, although the temperature decreases in these intervals were much more pronounced than observed in other chironomid records from Europe, suggesting that local climatic factors and ecosystem responses may have overamplified these cold events in the temperature reconstruction. However, other proxies (geochemistry, pollen) support the interpretation of climatically driven palaeoenvironmental changes such as the development of vegetation cover, changes in lake productivity, pedogenesis and erosion.

Summer temperatures and lake development during the MIS 5a interstadial: New data from the Unterangerberg palaeolake in the Eastern Alps, Austria

Investigations of interstadials during early stages of glacial periods are of special interest, because they featured large-scale transformations of the climate system and the build-up of land-based ice sheets. Lacustrine sediment sequences are considered to be important natural archives that register past climate and environmental signals. Here, we present new multi-proxy data obtained from a palaeolake succession preserved in the inner-alpine terrace of Unterangerberg, Eastern Alps. These sediments formed during the second Early Würmian Interstadial, equivalent to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5a, and were used to reconstruct changes in lake conditions and to infer past air temperatures. The sediment geochemical data and subfossil aquatic biota provide evidence of a cyclic lake–fen–lake development during this interstadial. The proxy records reveal stable lacustrine conditions with dense charophyte meadows and abundant aquatic fauna during the early part of the interstadial, a progressive shallowing of the lake resulting in the spreading out of fen vegetation in the middle part, and a transition from wetland to a renewed shallow lake stage towards the end of the interstadial. Chironomids were used to reconstruct mean July air temperatures, employing a combined Norwegian-Swiss chironomid temperature inference model. The reconstruction indicates a temperature close to present-day values of ca. 18 °C in the middle part of the record, while temperatures of ca. 13–14 °C are recorded for the lower and upper parts. The proxy data from this palaeolake provide evidence of heat and drought in the middle part of MIS 5a, supported by the chironomid-based temperature reconstruction. Our reconstruction shows a climate pattern broadly similar to that found in pollen-based estimates of mean July air temperatures from sites in the northern Alpine foreland and compares well to other European palaeoclimatic reconstructions of MIS 5a climate.

Complexities in interpreting chironomid-based temperature reconstructions over the Holocene from a lake in Western Ireland

Investigation of Holocene climate variability remains challenging. This is largely due to chronological uncertainties and complexities associated with proxies and their relationship with climatic drivers. Pertinent questions still exist regarding the Holocene climate in Ireland, particularly in the early Holocene. We present a mean July air temperature reconstruction based on fossil chironomidae (non-biting midge flies), along with an assessment of chironomid functional traits from five guilds (based on their feeding habits) from Lough Nakeeroge, a small glacial lake in western Ireland. These records span the early to late Holocene (c. 10,000–1500 cal yr BP). The chironomid record is supplemented with pollen data to determine landscape vegetation dynamics, and compared to climate model simulations of the same period. As reliable models are essential for robust analysis of long-term climate change, we critically assess the value of the chironomid transfer function and explore the use of chironomid functional traits to infer past climate variability. While this study demonstrates the complexities of chironomid-based temperature reconstruction in Irish lakes, it endeavours to i) disentangle a complicated Holocene climate history through the exploration of other long-term Holocene records from the island; and ii) improve our understanding of environmental responses to climate variability in Ireland. The findings of this study suggest that the interpretation of chironomid-based temperature transfer functions can be challenging. However, our results demonstrate the influence of climate on the functioning of lake ecosystems over the Holocene, with the promising performance of the collector-filterer feeding guild as a palaeothermometer.

Late Holocene hydroclimate variability in Costa Rica: Signature of the terminal classic drought and the Medieval Climate Anomaly in the northern tropical Americas

In the northern tropical Americas (Neotropics), notable hydrological variability has been documented in multi-proxy paleoclimate records between ∼600 and 1200 CE. This interval generally overlaps with the Maya Terminal Classic Drought (TCD: ∼770–1100 CE) and the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA: ∼950–1250 CE). There is, however, limited paleoclimate data that provide reliable estimates of terrestrial thermal variability in southern Central America during this time. In this study, we present chironomid-based temperature reconstructions, developed from sediment cores from two lakes: (1) Lago Morrenas 3C, a high-elevation glacial lake located on the crest of the Atlantic slope of the Cordillera Talamanca, Costa Rica, and (2) Laguna Zoncho, a mid-elevation lake located on the Pacific slope in southern Costa Rica. Distinctive shifts in the chironomid assemblages occurred at both sites between ∼610 and 1230 CE. These changes are inferred to reflect an ∼600-year interval characterized by depressed mean annual temperatures at Lago Morrenas 3C and dry conditions and lake level decline at Laguna Zoncho. Taken together, the multi-proxy paleoclimate records from these two lakes, including stable carbon isotope (δ13C) and charcoal data, suggest that middle elevations on the Pacific slope and high elevations on the Atlantic slope of Costa Rica experienced sustained drought, and possible cooling coeval with the TCD-MCA interval. The timing of hydroclimate variability in these records provides support for the hypothesis that cooling and drought in the northern tropical Americas during the TCD and early MCA were linked to thermal changes in the tropical North Atlantic.

Chironomid-based temperature reconstruction for the Eemian Interglacial (MIS 5e) at Sokli, northeast Finland

The Last Interglacial (Eemian, MIS 5e) can be considered a test-bed for climate dynamics under a warmer-than-present climate. In this study we present a chironomid record from the high latitude Sokli site (N Finland), where a long continuous sediment sequence from the last interglacial has been preserved from glacial erosion. The chironomid-analysis shows a diverse fauna, with dominance of warm-water indicators and shifts in assemblage composition that can be attributed to temperature, lake depth, productivity and habitat availability. Quantitative mean July paleotemperature estimates based on the chironomid data indicate overall mean July air temperatures up to 1 °C warmer than present. Two cooling events can be discerned, the Tunturi event, dated to about 127.5 ka BP, in the lower part of the sequence, and the Värriö event, dated to about 119 ka BP, associated with the beginning of a cooling trend in the upper part of the record. Warm conditions already at the onset of the interglacial contrast with a recent chironomid-based last interglacial temperature reconstruction from Denmark, which suggests a late onset of Eemian warming. The relatively small increase in inferred temperatures compared to present day temperatures at Sokli differs from other high latitude Eemian sites, and likely reflects the influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in maintaining already elevated temperatures in Fennoscandia during interglacials.

A 2000-year record of lake ontogeny and climate variability from the north-eastern European Russian Arctic

A lake sediment record from the north-eastern European Russian Arctic was examined using palaeolimnological methods, including subfossil chironomid and diatom analysis. The objective of this study is to disentangle environmental history of the lake and climate variability during the past 2000 years. The sediment profile was divided into two main sections following changes in the lithology, separating the limno-telmatic phase between ~2000 and 1200 cal. yr BP and the lacustrine phase between ~1200 cal. yr BP and the present. Owing to the large proportion of semi-terrestrial chironomids and poor modern analogues, a reliable chironomid-based temperature reconstruction for the limno-telmatic phase was not possible. However, the lacustrine phase showed gradually cooling climate conditions from ~1200 cal. yr BP until ~700 cal. yr BP. The increase in stream chironomids within this sediment section indicates that this period may also have had increased precipitation that caused the adjacent river to overflow, subsequently transporting chironomids to the lacustrine basin. After a short-lived warm phase at ~700 cal. yr BP, the climate again cooled, and a progressive climate warming trend was evident from the most recent sediment samples, where the biological assemblages seem to have experienced an eutrophication-like response to climate warming. The temperature reconstruction showed more similarities with the climate development in the Siberian side of the Urals than with northern Europe. This study provides a characteristic archive of arctic lake ontogeny and a valuable temperature record from a remote climate-sensitive area of northern Russia.

Modeling postglacial vegetation dynamics of temperate forests on the Olympic Peninsula (WA, USA) with special regard to snowpack

Past and future forest composition and distribution in temperate mountain ranges is strongly influenced by temperature and snowpack. We used LANDCLIM, a spatially explicit, dynamic vegetation model, to simulate forest dynamics for the last 16,000 years and compared the simulation results to pollen and macrofossil records at five sites on the Olympic Peninsula (Washington, USA). To address the hydrological effects of climate-driven variations in snowpack on simulated forest dynamics, we added a simple snow accumulation-and-melt module to the vegetation model and compared simulations with and without the module. LANDCLIM produced realistic present-day species composition with respect to elevation and precipitation gradients. Over the last 16,000 years, simulations driven by transient climate data from an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) and by a chironomid-based temperature reconstruction captured Late-glacial to Late Holocene transitions in forest communities. Overall, the reconstruction-driven vegetation simulations matched observed vegetation changes better than the AOGCM-driven simulations. This study also indicates that forest composition is very sensitive to snowpack-mediated changes in soil moisture. Simulations without the snow module showed a strong effect of snowpack on key bioclimatic variables and species composition at higher elevations. A projected upward shift of the snow line and a decrease in snowpack might lead to drastic changes in mountain forests composition and even a shift to dry meadows due to insufficient moisture availability in shallow alpine soils.

Revised deglaciation history of the Pietrele–Stânişoara glacial complex, Retezat Mts, Southern Carpathians, Romania

Although geomorphological evidences of Quaternary glaciations of the Southern Carpathians were extensively studied and discussed, the limited number of chronological studies resulted in poor and controversial knowledge on the age of glaciations and deglaciation of the area. We use new and recalculated in situ produced 10Be surface exposure ages of glacial landforms to shed light on the age of the maximum glacial extent and the glacier oscillations during the last deglaciation process on the northern side of the Retezat Mountains. According to our data, the maximum ice extent documented by preserved moraines occurred around 21.0−1.5+0.8 ka, coincident with the global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The deglaciation process during the Lateglacial was characterized by two glacial advances at 18.6−0.8+0.9 and 16.3−0.6+0.6 ka. Inferred stabilization date of the penultimate glacial stage at 15.2−0.8+0.7 ka was closely followed by the abrupt warming at the onset of the Bølling/Allerød documented by a local chironomid-based temperature reconstruction. The last small glacier advance was dated to 13.5−0.4+0.5 ka. These recessional/readvance phases agree with other European glacial chronologies.

Assessing recent climatic and human influences on chironomid communities from two moderately impacted lakes in western Ireland

This study assessed the influences of climate warming and human impacts on Irish lakes over the late nineteenth to early twenty-first centuries. High-resolution chironomid (Insecta: Diptera) stratigraphies were developed for two low- to mid-elevation lakes in northwest Ireland to determine if lakes with mild-to-moderate human impacts can be used to accurately reconstruct mean July air temperature. Application of an Ireland-based chironomid-inference model to quantitatively estimate July air temperature (\(r_{\text{jack}}^{2}\) = 0.60, RMSEP = 0.57°C) revealed that chironomids can reflect changes in Irish temperature, particularly post-1980 when warming accelerated, although this signal becomes compromised with intensified human impacts. A biotic response to nutrient enrichment and soil erosion from direct human activities was identified through a comparison of chironomid autecology with known catchment changes. Redundancy analysis and time series comparisons were used to identify when faunal turnover is a function of local (nutrient input, erosion) versus extra-regional (climate) drivers over the recent past, and identify any thresholds of human influence within the catchments. This study highlights the importance of careful site selection as moderately impacted sites do not follow a simple scheme, as well as multi-proxy analysis to assess catchment-based human activity for longer term chironomid-based temperature reconstructions in Ireland.

The relationship between water and air temperature in chironomid-based paleoclimate reconstructions: Records from boreal and subarctic Finland

Fossil remains of larval chironomids are one of the most useful paleolimnological proxies to reconstruct Holocene paleoclimate. We investigate the within-lake distribution of chironomids in relation to water temperature and test the usability of intralake calibration in chironomid-based temperature reconstructions. We compare our findings against the traditional multilake calibration technique in Holocene sediment cores from Finland. The results show that intralake water temperature optima of common taxa correspond closely with mean July air temperature optima in a regional multilake dataset, with exception of a few vegetation-associated taxa. A calibration model based on intralake water temperatures shows performance statistics that correspond to the general performance statistics level of multilake calibration models. However, the intralake model has somewhat increased prediction error. Despite the fact that the intralake model is sensitive to poor modern analogues, it shows correlation with the results using the multilake calibration approach in the Holocene reconstructions. Our results confirm that the within-lake distribution of chironomids along a water depth gradient is closely linked with water temperature gradient. This provides evidence for the close relationship between chironomids and temperature in general and suggests that, in addition to the regional scale, water temperature is a key variable in determining chironomid distribution at the site-specific scale. However, long-term changes in intralake gradients in other depth-related factors, such as hypolimnetic oxygen conditions, extent of photic zone and habitat distribution, may hamper the quantitative accuracy of chironomid-based temperature reconstructions, though the results also suggest that these changes are likely to have little general impact on the trends of chironomid-based air temperature reconstructions.

New evidence of warm early-Holocene summers in subarctic Finland based on an enhanced regional chironomid-based temperature calibration model

Paleoclimate reconstructions based on biological proxies present methodological challenges, especially during non-analog conditions, such as the early Holocene. Here, two chironomid-based training sets from Finland were amalgamated to create a more accurate transfer function of summer air temperature. The aim was to reconstruct Holocene paleoclimate in northernmost Lapland, in an area that has been either too warm or too cold for reliable reconstructions using the original calibration models. The results showed that the combined calibration model had improved performance statistics. The temperature trends inferred from the downcore chironomid record using the original and combined models were very similar. However, there were major changes in their absolute values with the combined model showing greatly improved accuracy. The chironomid-based temperature reconstruction showed significant correlation with the previous pollen-based reconstructions from northwestern Finnish Lapland. However, differences were observed in the temperature trends of the early Holocene, when the chironomid-inferred temperatures rapidly increased, but the pollen-based reconstructions lagged behind suggesting that a cool climate continued for much longer. However, similar to the chironomid record, new plant macrofossil evidence from northwestern Finland also showed warmer-than-present early Holocene temperatures. Therefore, we conclude that the early Holocene was probably warm in northern Lapland.

Holocene climate variability on the Kola Peninsula, Russian Subarctic, based on aquatic invertebrate records from lake sediments

Sedimentary records of invertebrate assemblages were obtained from a small lake in the Khibiny Mountains, Kola Peninsula. Together with a quantitative chironomid-based reconstruction of mean July air temperature, these data provide evidence of Holocene climate variability in the western sector of the Russian Subarctic. The results suggest that the amplitude of climate change was more pronounced in the interior mountain area than near the White Sea coast. A chironomid-based temperature reconstruction reflects a warming trend in the early Holocene, interrupted by a transient cooling at ca. 8500–8000calyrBP with a maximum drop in temperature (ca. 1°C) around 8200calyrBP. The regional Holocene Thermal Maximum, characterized by maximum warmth and dryness occurred at ca. 7900–5400calyrBP. During this period, July temperatures were at least 1°C higher than at present. The relatively warm and dry climate persisted until ca. 4000calyrBP, when a pronounced neoglacial cooling was initiated. Minimum temperatures, ca. 1–2°C lower than at present, were inferred at ca. 3200–3000calyrBP. Faunal shifts in the stratigraphic profile imply also that the late-Holocene cooling was followed by a general increase in effective moisture.

European climate change at the end of the last glaciation: chironomid–based temperature reconstruction on a conti-nental scale

In Europe climatic conditions at the end of the last ice age were affected by a number of abrupt temperatures shifts, including the rapid transitions to warmer climate at the beginning of the Lateglacial Interstadial and the Holocene, and the cooling at the start of the Younger Dryas cold period. The amplitude and spatial pattern of Lateglacial changes in temperature can provide information about the forcing factors of these climate shifts and about processes affecting the European climate system during a transition to warmer climate. However, spatially resolved datasets describing temperature change across the European continent during the Lateglacial period at centennial or higher time resolution and based on the same standardized approach are presently not available. We aim to develop such a standardized dataset based on records of past summer temperature reconstructed from fossil chironomid assemblages in lake sediments. A combination of regional calibration datasets provided the basis for a chironomidbased inference model for July air temperature that covers the range of temperatures and chironomid assemblages expected for Europe during the Lateglacial. This model, which is based on modern chironomid assemblages from 274 lakes in Norway and Switzerland and associated observed values of mean July air temperature, was then used to produce temperature records from Estonia, Denmark, Ireland, the UK, Norway, the Netherlands, southeastern France, Western Spain, Northern Italy, Switzerland, and southern Romania. Preliminary results indicate distinct variations in the amplitude of temperature changes across Europe during the Lateglacial, with stronger shifts in July air temperature reconstructed in northern parts than at localities more to the south of the continent. Future work will expand this dataset to include additional sites in the British Isles, Italy, Bulgaria and Scandinavia in order to confirm the observed spatial pattern of Lateglacial temperature changes.

Inconsistent results should not be overlooked: A reply to Brooks et al. (2012)

Empirical data in the form of many chironomid-based temperature reconstructions give an excellent opportunity to assess the chironomid approach to temperature reconstruction by testing its reproducibility. Brooks et al. ( The Holocene 22(12) 2012 (this issue)) offer a critique of points discussed in Velle et al. ( The Holocene 20 (2010) 989–1002), but fail to explain the poor reproducibility found when Holocene chironomid-based temperature reconstructions are compared. We discuss the issues raised by Brooks et al. (2012) and cite studies that demonstrate the complexity involved. We are grateful to Brooks et al. (2012) for contributing to the discussion. However, they overly rely uncritically on transfer functions and the resulting reconstructions as representatives of true patterns in nature. A major source of bias involved when chironomids are used as a palaeoenvironmental proxy is the response to confounding gradients. Many of the challenges discussed in the Forum Article, in the comment, and in the reply are also valid for other research fields within palaeoecology. The challenges should still be properly addressed in chironomid research.

A 274-lake calibration data-set and inference model for chironomid-based summer air temperature reconstruction in Europe

A 274-lake calibration data-set for chironomid-based temperature reconstruction is presented which is based on the taxonomic amalgamation of a 117-lake data-set from Switzerland and a 157-lake data-set from Norway and Svalbard. Taxonomic consistency of the two data-sets was ensured by joint microscope sessions by the two involved analysts, re-identifying chironomid assemblages in the Swiss data-set to reach an identical taxonomic resolution as in the Norwegian data, and by double-checking selected samples of the Norwegian calibration data-set. The combined Swiss-Norwegian calibration data-set contains information on the distribution of 154 chironomid taxa over a July air temperature range of 3.5–18.4 °C, a pH range of 4.7–8.8, and an altitudinal range of 5–2815 m asl from lakes in temperate, subarctic, arctic, and alpine environments. Inference models developed based on this data-set using weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS) regression outperformed inference models based on maximum likelihood regression. After outlier deletion WA-PLS regression predicted July air temperature with a bootstrapped (cross-validated) root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) of 1.40 °C. Inference models developed from the separate regional data-sets have an RMSEP of 1.16 and 1.43 °C for the Norwegian and the Swiss calibration data-set, respectively. The WA-PLS inference model based on the Norwegian data-set adequately predicted July air temperature based on chironomid assemblages in the Swiss data-set (RMSEP 2.05 °C; r 2 0.74). In contrast, the WA-PLS model based on the Swiss chironomid assemblages performed poorly in inferring July air temperatures based on the Norwegian chironomid assemblages (RMSEP 2.70 °C; r 2 0.39). We attribute this discrepancy to the large proportion of chironomid taxa in Norwegian samples not represented in the Swiss data-set, the larger range of both pH and lake types included in the Norwegian calibration data-set, and the lack of some chironomid taxa with an arctic and boreal distribution in the Swiss data-set. The WA-PLS inference model based on the combined Swiss-Norwegian calibration data-set is the largest taxonomically consistent chironomid-based inference model available to date and outperforms other existing models if the r 2 and RMSEP relative to the overall temperature gradient are examined. We demonstrate that the combined model can reconstruct a larger range of temperatures when applied to fossil assemblages than models based on the Norwegian or Swiss calibration data-sets only. The combined data-set includes the majority of chironomid taxa expected in late Pleistocene and Holocene sediments of lakes from Northern, Eastern, and Central Europe as well as from southern European mountain lakes. The newly developed WA-PLS inference model is therefore well suited for developing continental-scale reconstructions of late Quaternary temperature change based on chironomid records from different parts of Europe.

Holocene temperature variations at a high-altitude site in the Eastern Alps: a chironomid record from Schwarzsee ob Sölden, Austria

Few well-dated, quantitative Holocene temperature reconstructions exist from high-altitude sites in the Central Eastern Alps. Here, we present a chironomid-based quantitative reconstruction of mean July air temperatures (TJuly) throughout the Holocene for a remote high-mountain lake, Schwarzsee ob Sölden, situated above the treeline at 2796 m a.s.l. in the Austrian Alps. Applying a chironomid-temperature inference model developed from lakes of the Alpine region to a high-resolution chironomid record from the lake provides evidence for early Holocene (ca 10000–8600 cal yr BP) TJuly of up to 8.5 °C, i.e. >4 °C above the modern (1977–2006) mean July temperature. The reconstruction reveals the so-called ‘8.2-ka cold event’ centered at ca 8250–8000 cal yr BP with temperatures ca 3 °C below the early-Holocene thermal maximum. Rather warm (ca 6 °C) and productive conditions prevailed during ca 7900–4500 cal yr BP. The chironomid record suggests a climate transition between ca 5200 and 4500 cal yr BP to cooler TJuly. A distinct cooling trend is evident from ca 4500 until ca 2500 cal yr BP. Thereafter, the study site experienced its coldest conditions (around 4 °C or less) throughout the rest of the Holocene, with the exception of the warming trend during the late 20th century. Beside other factors, the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation seems to be the major driving force for the long-term trends in TJuly at high altitudes in the Eastern Alps. Due to the extreme location of the lake and the limited temperature range represented by the applied calibration data set, the chironomid-based temperature reconstruction fails to track phases of the late-Holocene climatic history with TJuly cooler than 4 °C. Further chironomid-based palaeoclimate model and down-core studies are required to address this problem, provide more realistic TJuly estimates from undisturbed high-altitude lakes in the Alps, and extract a reliable regional temperature signal.

How does taxonomic resolution affect chironomid-based temperature reconstruction?

The resolution achievable for chironomid identifications has increased in recent years because of significant improvements in taxonomic literature. However, high taxonomic resolution requires more training for analysts. Furthermore, with greater taxonomic resolution, misidentifications and the number of rare, poorly represented taxa in chironomid calibration datasets may increase. We assessed the effects of various levels of taxonomic resolution on the performance of chironomid-based temperature inference models (transfer functions) and temperature reconstruction. A calibration dataset consisting of chironomid assemblage and temperature data from 100 lakes was examined at four levels of taxonomic detail. The coarsest taxonomic resolution primarily represented identifications to genus or suprageneric level. At the highest level of taxonomic resolution, identification to genus level was possible for 37% of taxa, and identification below genus was possible for 60% of taxa. Transfer functions were obtained using Weighted Averaging (WA) and Weighted Averaging-Partial Least Squares (WA-PLS) regression. Cross-validated performance statistics, such as the root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) and the coefficient of determination (r2) between inferred and observed values improved considerably from the lowest taxonomic resolution level (WA: RMSEP 1.91°C, r2 0.78; WA-PLS: RMSEP 1.59°C, r2 0.86) to the highest taxonomic resolution level (WA: RMSEP 1.66°C, r2 0.84; WA-PLS: RMSEP 1.41°C, r2 0.89). Reconstructed July air temperatures during the Lateglacial period based on fossil chironomid assemblages from Hijkermeer (The Netherlands) were similar for all levels of taxonomic resolution, except the coarsest level. At the coarsest taxonomic level, reconstruction failed to infer one of the known Lateglacial cold episodes in the record. Also, the difference in reconstructed values based on lowest and highest taxonomic resolutions exceeded sample-specific estimated standard errors of prediction in several instances. Our results suggest that chironomid-based transfer functions at the highest taxonomic resolution outperform models based on lower-resolution calibration data. However, transfer functions of intermediate taxonomic resolution produced results very similar to models based on high-resolution taxonomic data. In studies that include analysts with different levels of expertise, inference models based on intermediate taxonomic resolution, therefore, might provide an alternative to transfer functions of maximum taxonomic detail in order to ensure taxonomic consistency between calibration datasets and down-core records produced by different analysts.

Application of bacterial glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) to develop modern and past temperature estimates from New Zealand lakes

Branched isoalkyl glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) of bacterial origin have been found in high abundance in both modern and glacial sediments of New Zealand South Island freshwater lakes covering a wide range of altitude (101–2000 m). Like isoprenoid GDGTs of archaeal origin, they provide excellent potential for temperature assessment. For this study, their distribution patterns (MBT, methylation ratio and CBT, cyclisation ratio of branched GDGTs) have been successfully used to develop an initial temperature calibration for the study area and to provide preliminary (palaeo)environmental interpretations. MBT data from modern lake sediments correlate well with measured annual air temperature ( R 2 0.74), enabling a regional calibration for reconstructing palaeotemperatures for fossil samples. MBT-derived palaeotemperatures for Alpine Lake, calibrated against mean annual temperature, were determined for the Last Glacial during an early cold phase (between 29,000 and 26,000 years BP) and for later less cold phases (between 23,000 and 18,000 years BP). Compared with the modern temperature regime, the MBT data indicate a decrease of ca. 5.6 and 2.8 °C respectively, during this time. Modern and past MBT-derived temperatures correlate with chironomid-based temperature reconstructions in the area. Archaeal GDGTs, commonly used for the TEX 86 index, are abundant in fossil sediments (Alpine Lake) but scarce in modern sediments, hindering a new local calibration for this palaeotemperature proxy.

Paleotemperature reconstruction in tropical Africa using fossil Chironomidae (Insecta: Diptera)

Fossil assemblages of chironomid larvae (non-biting midges) preserved in lake sediments are well-established paleothermometers in north-temperate and boreal regions, but their potential for temperature reconstruction in tropical regions has never before been assessed. In this study, we surveyed sub-fossil chironomid assemblages in the surface sediments of 65 lakes and permanent pools in southwestern Uganda (including the Rwenzori Mountains) and central and southern Kenya (including Mount Kenya) to document the modern distribution of African chironomid communities along the regional temperature gradient covered by lakes situated between 489 and 4,575 m above sea level (a.s.l). We then combined these faunal data with linked Surface-Water Temperature (SWTemp: range 2.1–28.1°C) and Mean Annual Air Temperature (MATemp: range 1.1–24.9°C) data to develop inference models for quantitative paleotemperature reconstruction. Here we compare and discuss the performance of models based on different numerical techniques [weighted-averaging (WA), weighted-averaging partial-least-squares (WA-PLS) and a weighted modern analogue technique (WMAT)], and on subsets of lakes with varying gradient lengths of temperature and other environmental variables. All inference models calibrated against MATemp have a high coefficient of determination (\( r_{\text{jack}}^{2} \) = 0.81–0.97), low maximum bias (0.84–2.59°C), and low root-mean-squared error of prediction (RMSEP = 0.61–1.50°C). The statistical power of SWTemp models is generally weaker (\( r_{\text{jack}}^{2} \) = 0.77–0.95; maximum bias 1.55–3.73°C; RMSEP = 1.39–1.98°C), likely because the surface-water temperature data are spot measurements failing to catch significant daily and seasonal variation. Models based on calibration over the full temperature gradient suffer slightly from the limited number of study sites at intermediate elevation (2,000–3,000 m), and from the presence of morphologically indistinguishable but ecologically distinct taxa. Calibration confined to high-elevation sites (>3,000 m) has poorer error statistics, but is less susceptible to biogeographical and taxonomic complexities. Our results compare favourably with chironomid-based temperature inferences in temperate regions, indicating that chironomid-based temperature reconstruction in tropical Africa can be achieved.