China's Population Policy Research Articles

Projected population exposure to heatwaves in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, China.

The intensification of heatwaves dues to climate change is a significant concern, with substantial impacts on ecosystems and human health, particularly in developing countries. This study utilizes NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) and projected population data accounting for China's population policies to project changes in various grades of heatwaves (light, moderate, and severe) and the population exposure to heatwaves (PEH) in Xinjiang under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The results show that the number of days and intensity of heatwaves in Xinjiang are projected to increase. Heatwaves occurring in Xinjiang will predominantly be severe heatwaves (SHW) in the long-term under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, and the number of SHW days projected to increase by 62 ± 18.4days compared to the reference period. Changes in heatwaves are anticipated to influence PEH, estimating population exposure to light, moderate, and severe heatwaves (LPEH, MPEH, and SPEH) at 534.6 ± 64 million, 496.2 ± 43.5 million, and 1602.4 ± 562.5 million person-days, respectively, in the long-term under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The spatial distribution of PEH is projected to be consistent with that of the reference period, with high values persisting in Urumqi, Kashgar and Hotan. Changes in PEH are primarily driven by climate effects, followed by interactive effects, while population effects contribute the least. Therefore, mitigating climate change is crucial to reduce the PEH in Xinjiang.

The Low Fertility Rate and Response of Population Policy in China

The Low Fertility Rate and Response of Population Policy in China

Research on future demographic trends based on the Chinese population growth model

Population development plays a vital role in the healthy and orderly operation of our country. To understand the new trends and characteristics of population change can effectively grasp the basic national condition of population and promote the high-quality development of China's economy. Based on the new characteristics and influencing factors of China's population, this paper establishes the mathematical model of China's population growth in the new era, and predicts the change trend of short-term and long-term population in China. First, we adopt the classical GM (1,1) model to predict the short-and medium-term demographic changes, and the fitting effect is very good. Then, in the long-term prediction, based on China's population policy and the future trend of population development, we choose the logistic population block growth model, which also got relatively good results. Next, we selected the representative five provinces of Guangdong, Zhejiang, Hubei, Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia for comparative analysis according to the above model, and concluded that the correlation coefficient of people such as age structure, urbanization rate, birth and mortality were the main factors affecting population change. Finally, we put forward corresponding policy suggestions by changing the age structure, urbanization rate, sex ratio model correlation coefficient, combined with our country's recent population policy.

Beyond Carrot and Stick: Dissecting the Enforcement of China's Population Policies

Beyond Carrot and Stick: Dissecting the Enforcement of China's Population Policies

Sex ratios and mental health: Evidence from China

While sex ratios (i.e., relative numbers of men and women) have been linked to various economic and social outcomes, how sex ratios affect mental health is underexplored. Using nationally representative data from the China Family Panel studies (CFPS) and Population Census, we evaluate the impact of sex ratios on mental health among Chinese men and explore potential mechanisms. Employing the instrumental variables (IV) approach where the One-Child Policy’s mandated fertility limits and implementation are used as exogenous variations in local sex ratios, we find that higher local sex ratios increase depressive symptoms and probability of depression among Chinese men. The impact is stronger for men with lower levels of education and living in rural areas. Analyses of potential mechanisms show that higher sex ratios increase the likelihood of marriage delay and unemployment for men, and prolong working hours for the employed men. The findings are of direct relevance to the health and population policy in China.

County-level estimates of population and economic scenarios under the shared socioeconomic pathways: A case study in Inner Mongolia, China

Contribution from socio-economic development to climate change cannot be ignored. In order to make a more reasonable comprehensive assessment of the future climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has proposed the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) based on the background of climate change and the possible future socio-economic conditions, which describes the adaptation and mitigation challenges of climate change. Based on different SSP scenarios, combined with China's current population policy and the actual social and economic development in Inner Mongolia, this paper adopts PDE model and C-D model to simulate population and economic changes of various counties in Inner Mongolia from 2010 to 2050. It is founded that population and GDP varies from different counties significantly, and shows the patterns of high in east and low in west, high in south and low in north. The spatial distribution of GDP is positively related with the population. The total population increases first and then decreases from 2015 to 2050 in Inner Mongolia. By the ends of 2050, the population reaches 23.32 million (−9.46%), 24.14 million (−2.30%), 24.72 million (+0.05%), 22.37 million (−9.46%), 23.49 million (−4.93%) under SSP1, SSP2, SSP3, SSP4, SSP5 scenarios. The largest gap of population is 2.35 million between SSP3 and SSP4. The GDP grows constantly from 2010 to 2050 in Inner Mongolia, but the growth rate is slowing down. By the ends of 2050, GDP reaches 5.09 trillion (+4.75 times), 5.22 trillion (+4.90 times), 4.41 trillion (+3.98 times), 4.98 trillion (+4.62 times), 5.87 trillion (+5.63 times). Therein, the biggest gap of GDP is 1.5 trillion between SSP4 and SSP5. The results provide technical solution for population and economic projection under SSPs at small area and subnational level, and provides scientific basis for the formulation of climate change policies in order to formulate measures to deal with climate change risks.

The Influence and Analysis of China's Population Policy Since the Reform and Opening up

The Influence and Analysis of China's Population Policy Since the Reform and Opening up

Family Planning Policy and Housing Price in China

Different intergenerational fertility levels affected by the family planning policy under such altruistic behavior will inevitably affect real estate prices. This paper studies the effect of different intergenerational fertility levels on real estate prices under the parental altruistic behavior model with Chinese characteristics by constructing an Overlapping Generation Model (OLG) with intergenerational wealth transfer. The empirical results show that the lower the intergenerational fertility level of the middle-aged generation, the higher the average wealth level transferred to the youth generation, and the higher the real estate price. This result shows that, unlike the high fertility rate of popular cognition, the low fertility rate of the middle-aged generation under the influence of the family planning policy and the altruistic behavior of the Chinese parents are the important reasons for the current high housing prices. This paper reveals the relationship between China's population policy and real estate price, and can guide the judgment of China's real estate market in the future.

The impact of China's latest population policy changes on maternity insurance-a case study in Jiangsu Province.

This study aims to examine the impact of China's population policy changes on social insurance. Nearly 4 decades ago, China ushered in the 1-child policy as a family planning policy to control the adverse effect of high population growth. The current maternity insurance system in China is designed to fit the operations of the 1-child policy. However, the implementation of the comprehensive 2-child policy can pose a challenge to the sustainability of the current maternity insurance scheme hence the call for reform. The study empanels a novel and comprehensive system dynamic model that incorporates all the related factors that influence the income and expenditure of maternity insurance in the Jiangsu Province. Data are mainly derived from the historical data of the Statistical Yearbook of Jiangsu Province and the National Bureau of Statistics of China. These are used to construct and simulate a system dynamic model to determine a sustainable contribution rate for maternity insurance. In conclusion, if the rate of contribution of the current maternity insurance policy is not increased, the burden of implementing the comprehensive 2-child policy will exacerbate the current deficit balance of the maternity insurance fund. The existing maternity insurance benefits thus cannot be maintained, and women's health will be threatened. In the short term, the study proposes an increase in the rate of premium payment to prolong the life of the maternity insurance. In the long term, there is a need to improve the level of coordination and expand the coverage of maternity insurance.

The Limits and Consequences of Population Policy: Evidence from China's Wan Xi Shao Campaign

Prior to the famous One Child Policy, China's total fertility rate declined by more than 50% during the 1970s - one of the most rapid sustained fertility declines documented in modern history. Coinciding with this transition was China's first national population policy, Wan Xi Shao, also known as the Longer, Later Fewer (LLF) campaign. Studying LLF's contribution to fertility and fertility strategies favoring sons, we find that the campaign i) reduced China's total fertility rate by 0.88 births per woman (explaining 27% of China's modern fertility decline), ii) doubled the use of male-biased fertility stopping rules, and iii) promoted postnatal selection (implying 200,000 previously unrecognized missing girls). Considering Chinese population policy to be extreme in global experience, our paper demonstrates the limits of population policy in explaining demographic transitions — and its potential human costs.

Chinese online public opinions on the Two-Child Policy

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to use Weibo as a window to examine the Chinese netizens’ online attitudes and responses to two sets of population policy: the Selective Two-Child Policy (Phase 2) and the Universal Two-Child Policy. The population policy change from the rigid One-Child Policy to the Selective Two-Child Policy then to the Universal Two-Child Policy aroused great attention of the Chinese people.Design/methodology/approachThis research uses the crawler technique to extract data on the Sina Weibo platform. Through opinion mining of Weibo posts on two sets of population policy, the Weibo users’ online opinions on the Two-Child Policy are analyzed from two perspectives: their attention intensity and sentiment tendency. The research also use the State Bureau of Statistics of China’s national population data between 2011 and 2016 to examine the Chinese people’s actual birth behaviors after implementing the two different sets of the Two-Child Policy.FindingsThe research findings indicate that the Selective Two-Child Policy (Phase 2) and the Universal Two-Child Policy are good examples of thematic public sphere of Weibo. Weibo posts on the two sets of the Two-Child Policy have undergone different opinion cycles. People from economically developed regions and populous regions have paid more attention to both sets of Two-Child Policy than their counterparts in the less developed and less populated regions. Men pay more attention to the Two-Child Policy than women do. Despite people’s huge attention to the new population policy, the population growth after the policy is not sustainable.Research limitations/implicationsThe new population policy alone is difficult to boost China’s population within a short period of time. The Chinese Government must provide its people with enough incentives and supporting welfare to make the population growth happen.Originality/valueThese findings have important implications for understanding the dynamics of online opinion formation and changing population policy in China.

The Economic Effect of Population Policy in China: Based on OLG Model and Panel Data Analysis

Based on the two-period overlapping generation( OLG) model and the panel data from 1983 to 2012 of 30 provinces,this paper investigates the impact of China's population policy on the economic growth and the social welfare. The model analysis and the empirical investigation results consistently indicate that the past 30 years the implementation of the family planning policy prominently promoted the growth of average per capita income. Nevertheless,it gave rise to the trend of the population aging,causing the shortage of the potential endowment resources and elderly welfare loss. The simulation of the population movement in the next 70 years based on the 2010 population census data reveals that the"selective two-child policy"will have little impact on the trend of aging population structure,while the general two-child policy will ameliorate and stabilize China's population structure in the future. This will play a crucial role in many aspects such as the stability of the labor supply,the providing for the aged,and the preschool education,and thus boost the sustainable and coordinated population,economy and society development. Accordingly,we come up with the propose that it is necessary and urgent for China to consider the implementation of the general two-child policy immediately.

The Innovation of China Population Policy: Focused on Policy Stream Model

The Innovation of China Population Policy: Focused on Policy Stream Model

Малодетность в России и Китае: Сходство Результатов При Различии Причин (Low Fertility in Russia and China: The Same Results on Account of the Different Reasons)

В статье рассматриваются режимы воспроизводства населения в России и Китае в настоящее время. Показано, что, несмотря на сходные низкие показатели рождаемости в этих странах, причины, которые привели к этому, сильно различаются. В Китае это стало следствием жесткой политики планирования семьи и контроля государства над рождаемостью. В России главной причиной выступила стремительная урбанизация и гендерный контракт «работающая мать». В силу этого в России ограничение рождаемости шло не сверху от государства, как в Китае, а снизу – от самих граждан. Китайская политика в области народонаселения показала свою успешность. Цели и методы проведения демографической политики в этих странах являются разными в силу национальной и культурной специфики. Тем не менее, учитывая общее социалистическое прошлое, возможно использование опыта Китая при решении демографических проблем в России.The article regards the modern types of reproduction in Russia and China. It is shown that, in despite of similar low rate of fertility in these countries, the reasons that led to this result are very different. In China, it was the result of a rigid policy of family planning and government control over fertility. In Russia, the main causes were the rapid urbanization and the gender contract working mother. Accordingly, in the Russian birth control did not go “from above” from the state, as in China, but went “from below” - from the citizens themselves. China's population policy has demonstrated its success. Aims and methods of population policies in these countries are different because of their national and cultural specifics. However taking into account their common socialist past, it is possible to use the experience of China to the solution of Russian demographic problems.

Population Policy and Eugenic Theory: Implications of China's Ratification of the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities

The Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (CRPD) is the first new human rights treaty of the 21st century. China was an early supporter of the CRPD and became East Asia's first State Party in 2008. This article discusses how the CRPD protects the rights of persons with disabilities to life, marriage and procreation, and analyses China's population policy, which continues to reflect eugenic theories. As China did not file any reservations, it is now obligated to reform laws and policies that conflict with the CRPD.

Book Review: Dudley L. POSTON, Jr., Che-Fu LEE, Chiung-Fang CHANG, Sherry L. McKIBBEN, and Carol S. WALTHER, eds, Fertility, Family Planning, and Population Policy in China. London and New York: Routledge, 2006. xvi+ 192 pp., with figures and tables. ISBN: 0-415-32330-4 (hc). Price: £65.00

Book Review: Dudley L. POSTON, Jr., Che-Fu LEE, Chiung-Fang CHANG, Sherry L. McKIBBEN, and Carol S. WALTHER, eds, Fertility, Family Planning, and Population Policy in China. London and New York: Routledge, 2006. xvi+ 192 pp., with figures and tables. ISBN: 0-415-32330-4 (hc). Price: £65.00

Fertility, Family Planning and Population Policy in China. Dudley L. Poston Jr. , Che-Fu Lee , Chiung-Fang Chang , Sherry L. McKibben , Carol S. Walther

Previous articleNext article No AccessReviewsFertility, Family Planning and Population Policy in China. Dudley L. Poston Jr. , Che-Fu Lee , Chiung-Fang Chang , Sherry L. McKibben , Carol S. Walther Zhongwei ZhaoZhongwei Zhao Search for more articles by this author PDFPDF PLUS Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditEmail SectionsMoreDetailsFiguresReferencesCited by The China Journal Volume 57Jan., 2007 Published on behalf of the Australian Centre on China in the World at the Australian National University Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/tcj.57.20066263 Views: 18Total views on this site Citations: 2Citations are reported from Crossref Copyright The China JournalPDF download Crossref reports the following articles citing this article:Xing Hua Zhao, Xin He, Jian Hua Wang Biodegradation of Swainsonine by Stenotrophomonas maltophilia Strain YLZZ-2 and its Isolation and Identification, Advanced Materials Research 178 (Dec 2010): 59–64.https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.178.59Xing Hua Zhao, Xin He, Jian Na Wang, Yu Min Song, Guo Xia Geng, Jian Hua Wang Biodegradation of Swainsonine by Acinetobacter calcoaceticus strain YLZZ-1 and its isolation and identification, Biodegradation 20, no.33 (Oct 2008): 331–338.https://doi.org/10.1007/s10532-008-9224-0

Transformations in China's population policies and demographic structure

Abstract. We use data from a 1992 national fertility survey to analyze China's changing demographic patterns between 1970 and 1989, covering marriage, childbearing, fertility and the gender composition of children. The analysis focuses on the relationship between population control policies and the behavior of successive marriage cohorts. Adopting a regression approach, we characterize a set of stylized demographic features in China over the two decades, including new results on women's average age at first marriage and first births, number of children per couple, and sex ratios among children. China's changing demographic patterns differed significantly among urban, township and rural populations.

Morality Policy and Unintended Consequences: China's “One-Child” Policy

The ability of government to change human behavior by altering policy has severe limitations. Nowhere are these limitations more evident than in the area of fertility policy and sexual behavior. This paper considers the impacts of China's restrictive population policy with regard to two dependent variables. First, we attempt to explain the impact of the “one child” policy on population growth. Secondly, we examine the effect of the policy on an unintended consequence: the sex ratio, or the imbalance between males and women in Chinese society. We utilize a time series, cross-sectional (TSCS) research design for 31 Chinese provinces and municipalities for the years 1996–1999. We consider the Chinese experience within the theoretical framework of morality policy and argue that, while China has been remarkably successful in lowering the growth rate of its still escalating population, the policy has had the unanticipated and harmful effect of an increasingly unbalanced sex ratio. While many Chinese have become convinced of the advantages of smaller families, their preference for sons has created a gender imbalance in the marriage market which potentially may have severe consequences for the future of Chinese society. We discuss these implications and argue that given the strong Chinese preference for sons, especially in rural areas of China, the government is now facing a new challenge in its effort to achieve a gender-balanced society.

Is it Time to Change China's Population Policy?

One of the notable features of China’s family planning programme is its decentralised policy formation and programme implementation despite being formed at the end of the 1970s soon after the Cultural Revolution when central planning still dominated. It is formulated and implemented primarily by the provincial governments though local authorities are given some flexibility in adapting the national policy to particular social economic and cultural conditions locally. As a result slightly different programmes have been applied in different localities. In the 1970s this regional diversity was reflected in the implementation of different local regulations pertaining to marriageable age and birth intervals. The current family planning regulations can be grouped into five major categories. Had all Chinese couples followed the local family planning regulations the total cohort fertility rate in 1990 would have been 1.62 and 1.50 in 1999 as more people became urban residents and changed their birth control categories. Therefore the notion of “One Child Policy” (OCP) is actually an oversimplification. However as the term is widely accepted it will be used in this article. By the late 1990s the total fertility rate (TFR) ranged from below one in Beijing and Shanghai to 3.11 in Tibet. Although it declined nation-wide in the 1990s the regional pattern remained more or less the same as in earlier decades. On the whole the rapid and continuous fertility decline has slowed down China’s population growth. It is estimated that in the last three decades roughly 300 million births were avoided. (excerpt)