China Health Statistics Yearbook Research Articles

Updated information concerning trends in suicide rates in elderly in China, 2002-2020.

The aim of this study was to investigate trends in suicide rates (SRs) among the elderly in China. Annual data on SRs among Chinese people ≥ the age of 65 were collected from China's Health Statistics Yearbook from 2002 to 2020. Then, data were stratified by age, region, and sex. Standardized SRs were calculated and analyzed using a conventional joinpoint regression model. Results revealed that overall, SRs among the elderly in China tended to decline from 2002-2020. Fluctuations in SRs, including in 2004-2005 due to the SARS epidemic, in 2009-2010 due to the economic crisis, and in 2019-2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, were also observed. Data suggested a relatively greater crude SR among the elderly (vs. young people), in males (vs. females), and in people living in a rural area (vs. those living in an urban area). SRs tended to rise with age. Joinpoint regression analysis identified joinpoints only for males ages 65-69 and over the age of 85 living in a rural area, suggesting that individuals in these groups are more sensitive to negative stimuli and more likely to commit suicide, necessitating closer attention. The findings from this study should help to make policy and devise measures against suicide in the future.

Spatial distribution patterns of human resources allocation in maternal and child healthcare institutions in China from 2016 to 2021

BackgroundIn China, economic, urbanization, and policy differences between the eastern and western regions lead to uneven healthcare resources. This disparity is more pronounced in the west due to fewer healthcare personnel per thousand individuals and imbalanced doctor-to-nurse ratios, which exacerbates healthcare challenges. This study examines the spatial distribution of human resources in maternal and child healthcare from 2016 to 2021, highlighting regional disparities and offering insights for future policy development.MethodsThe data were sourced from the “China Health and Family Planning Statistical Yearbook” (2017) and the “China Health and Health Statistics Yearbook” (2018–2022). This study utilized GeoDa 1.8.6 software to conduct both global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses, using China’s administrative map as the base dataset.ResultsFrom 2016 to 2021, there was an upward trend in the number of health personnel and various types of health technical personnel in Chinese maternal and child healthcare institutions. The spatial distribution of these personnel from 2016 to 2021 revealed clusters characterized as high-high, low-low, high-low and low-high. Specifically, high-high clusters were identified in Guangxi, Hunan, Jiangxi, and Guangdong provinces; low-low in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region; high-low in Sichuan province; and low-high in Fujian and Anhui provinces.ConclusionsFrom 2016 to 2021, there was evident spatial clustering of health personnel and various health technical personnel in Chinese maternal and child healthcare institutions, indicating regional imbalances.

Association between maternal health service utilization and under-five mortality rate in China and its provinces, 1990–2017

BackgroundThe United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goal − 3.2 aims to eliminate all preventable under-five mortality rate (U5MR). In China, government have made efforts to provide maternal health services and reduce U5MR. Hence, we aimed to explore maternal health service utilization in relation to U5MR in China and its provinces in 1990–2017.MethodsWe obtained data from Global Burden of Disease 2017, China Health Statistics Yearbook, China Statistical Yearbook, and Human Development Report China Special Edition. The trend of U5MR in each province of China from 1990 to 2017 was analyzed using Joinpoint Regression model. We measured the inequities in maternal health services using HEAT Plus, a health inequity measurement tool developed by the UN. The generalized estimating equation model was used to explore the association between maternal health service utilization (including prenatal screening, hospital delivery and postpartum visits) and U5MR.ResultsFirst, in China, the U5MR per 1000 live births decreased from 50 in 1990 to 12 in 2017 and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was − 5.2 (p < 0.05). Secondly, China had a high maternal health service utilization in 2017, with 96.5% for prenatal visits, 99.9% for hospital delivery, and 94% for postnatal visits. Inequity in maternal health services between provinces is declining, with hospital delivery rate showing the greatest decrease (SII, 14.01 to 1.87, 2010 to 2017). Third, an increase in the rate of hospital delivery rate can significantly reduce U5MR (OR 0.991, 95%CI 0.987 to 0.995). Postpartum visits rate with a one-year lag can reduce U5MR (OR 0.993, 95%CI 0.987 to 0.999). However, prenatal screening rate did not have a significant effect on U5MR.ConclusionThe decline in U5MR in China was associated with hospital delivery and postpartum visits. The design and implementation of maternal health services may provide references to other low-income and middle-income countries.

The economic effect of financial compensation in China’s healthcare system: comprehensive insights regarding supply and demand factors

ObjectivesWe aim to analyse the effects of government subsidies on residents’ health and healthcare expenditure from the perspectives of supply and demand.Data and methodsAccording to the regional division adopted in the data query system of the National Bureau of Statistics, this study divides 31 provinces and cities into three regions: eastern, central, and western. The data used are from public databases, such as the “China Statistical Yearbook,” “China Health Statistical Yearbook,” and “Government Final Account Report”. In this study, mathematical model derivation is used to construct a fixed effects model, and an empirical study based on cross-sectional data and general linear regression is conducted. To prevent endogeneity issues, this study introduces instrumental variables and uses 2SLS regression to further analyse the output results.ResultsFor every 1% increase in supplementary funding on the supply side, the perinatal mortality rate decreases by 1.765%, while for every 1% increase in financial compensation on the demand side, per capita outpatient expenses increase by 0.225% and per capita hospitalization expenses increase by 0.196%. Regarding medical resources, for every 1% increase in the number of beds per 1,000 people, per capita hospitalization expenses decrease by 0.099%. In the central and eastern regions, where economic levels are higher, supply-side government funding is more effective than demand-side funding. In contrast, demand-side funding is more effective in the western region.ConclusionsThe roles of multiple influencing factors and significant regional heterogeneity are clarified. Increasing financial compensation to providers positively impacts perinatal mortality but leads to higher per capita outpatient and hospital expenditures. Finally, this study provides targeted policy recommendations and solid theoretical support for policymakers.

Can the allocation of primary health care system resources affect efficiency? A spatial Dubin model study in China

BackgroundThe primary health care (PHC) system plays an important role in China’s health care system, but there are challenges such as irrational allocation of health resources and inefficient operation, which need to be improved. The purpose of this study was to explore the impact of resource allocation on the efficiency of the PHC system in China.MethodsThe data in 31 provinces were collected from the China Statistical Yearbook 2017–2021 and the China Health Statistical Yearbook 2017–2021. The comprehensive health resource density index (CHRDI) was constructed based on the entropy method and the health resource density index (HRDI), which was used to analyze the allocation of primary health resources in each province. The adjusted efficiency of the PHC system in each province was calculated by the bootstrap data envelopment analysis (DEA). Finally, the spatial Dubin model was used to explore the effect of the CHRDI on efficiency.ResultsFrom 2016 to 2020, the allocation of primary health resources in 31 provinces showed an increasing trend, and the average efficiency after correction showed a decreasing state year by year. The spatial direct effect and spatial spillover effect coefficients of CHRDI were 0.820 and 1.471, which positively affect the efficiency. Per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), urbanization rate, and the proportion of the elderly were the factors affecting the efficiency of the PHC system.ConclusionsThe allocation of primary health resources in all provinces in China has improved each year, but there are still great differences, and efficiency must be further improved. Pay attention to the spatial spillover effect of the level of resource allocation and formulate differentiated measures for different regions. Attention should also be paid to the impact of population aging and economic development on the utilization of primary health resources by increasing health needs and choices.

Feminization of the health workforce in China: exploring gendered composition from 2002 to 2020.

Feminization of health workforce has been globally documented, but it has not been investigated in China. This study aims to analyze changes in the gendered composition of health workforce and explore the trend in different types of health workforce, health organizations and majors within China's health system. The data were collected from China Health Statistical Yearbook from 2002 to 2020. We focused on health professionals including doctors, nurses, and pharmacists in health organizations. Trend analysis was employed to examine the change in the ratio of female health workforce over 18years. The estimated average annual percent change (AAPC) was estimated, and the reciprocals of variances for the female ratios were used as weights. In China, health professionals increased from 4.7 million in 2002 to 10.68 million in 2020. Health professionals per 1000 population increased from 3.41 in 2002 to 7.57 in 2020. The ratio of female health professionals significantly increased from 63.85% in 2002 to 72.4% in 2020 (AAPC = 1.04%, 95% CI 0.96-1.11%, P < 0.001). Female doctors and pharmacists increased 4.7 and 7.9 percentage points from 2002 to 2020. Female health workers at township health centers, village clinics, centers for disease control and prevention had higher annual increase rate (AAPC = 1.67%, 2.25% and 1.33%, respectively) than those at hospital (0.70%) and community health center (0.5%). Female doctors in traditional Chinese medicine, dentistry and public health had higher annual increase rate (AAPC = 1.82%, 1.53% and 1.91%, respectively) than female clinical doctor (0.64%). More women are participating in the healthcare sector in China. However, socially lower-ranked positions have been feminizing faster, which could be due to the inherent and structural gender norms restricting women's career. More collective and comprehensive system-level actions will be needed to foster a gender-equitable environment for health workforce at all levels.

Temporal trend in hospitalizations for malignant neoplasm and benign neoplasm: a nationwide study, China, 2004–2020

The increasing cancer burden calls for reliably assessed changes in the hospitalizations for tumors over time and space in China. This study evaluated trends in hospitalization rate, in-hospital mortality, length of stay (LOS), and medical costs for malignant and benign neoplasms. Data were derived from China Health Statistical Yearbooks from 2004 to 2020. Temporal trends in hospitalization rates and in-hospital mortality rates were assessed through the Cochran-Armitage Test. We used the linear model with continuous variables to test for the trend. The malignant neoplasm hospitalization rate increased from 1.1‰ to 5.8‰ and the benign neoplasm increased from 1.0‰ to 2.0‰. The in-hospital mortality rate due to malignant neoplasm and benign neoplasm decreased from 5.11 to 2.87% (P for trend < 0.001) and 0.14–0.01% (P for trend < 0.001), respectively. Among all patients hospitalized with malignant neoplasm, the average cost per hospitalization significantly increased during the study period (P for trend < 0.001), adjusted for the Consumer Price Index. However, the average LOS gradually decreased (P for trend < 0.001). In line with the trend of malignant neoplasm, the average cost per hospitalization increased significantly among all patients hospitalized for benign neoplasm (P for trend < 0.001), and the average LOS showed a steady downward trend (P for trend < 0.001). We found upward trends in hospitalization rates, and medical costs in neoplasms. By contrast, substantial decreases in in-hospital mortality and LOS. The hospitalization rate gap between urban and rural areas is narrowed.

Assessing the price levels of medical service and influential factors: evidence from China

BackgroundMedical service prices play a crucial role in cost containment in China. This study aimed to assess the change in medical service price levels at the macro level and the relationship with relevant macroeconomic factors.MethodsData from the 2022 China Statistics Yearbook, the 2022 China Health Statistics Yearbook, and the 2020 China National Health Accounts Report were used. Time trends of health price levels, utilization, and health expenditure were examined. A time-series regression model was employed to measure the impact of service utilization and medical service prices on total medical service expenditure growth from 2000 to 2021. The Johansen cointegration test was conducted to test the cointegrating relationship between medical service price levels and total medical service expenditure, average wage of employees and CPI. The Granger causality test was performed to observe the direction of causality.ResultsDescriptive analyses showed consistent growth in utilization and medical service price levels from 2000 to 2021. The time-series model indicated that medical service expenditure was influenced by the rise in inpatient admissions and price levels of medical service and medicine. The Johansen cointegration test identified a long-term equilibrium relationship between medical service price levels and total medical service expenditure, average wage and CPI. The change in medical service price levels was the Granger cause of the change in medical service expenditure, but it had no impact on average wage and CPI. However, the change in medical service price levels was influenced by these three macroeconomic factors.ConclusionsThe growth of medical service expenditure in China was driven by inpatient use and price level. There was a long-term equilibrium relationship between medical service price levels and relevant macroeconomic factors. However, medical service price levels only affected medical service expenditure and have no impact on average wage and CPI. It is necessary to improve the value transmission mechanism of medical service prices.

Injury Mortality of Children and Adolescents Aged 0-19 Years - China, 2010-2021.

To examine the recent trends in child injury mortality in China. Injury mortality data of 2010-2021 for children and adolescents aged 0-19 years were from the China Health Statistics Yearbook. Injury mortality disparities across urban vs. rural locations, gender, and age groups were scrutinized. Annual percent change (APC), average annual percent change (AAPC), and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estiamted usimg Joinpoint regression models. The age-standardized injury mortality significantly dropped from 21.87 to 9.41 per 100,000 population among children and youth aged 0-19 years during 2010-2021, with an AAPC of -6.7% (95% CI: -8.2%, -5.2%). The urban-rural disparity and gender gap in injury mortality reduced gradually. In 2021, drowning and road traffic crashes were the top two causes of child injury deaths, explaing 31.1% and 27.9% of total injury deaths, respectively. Suffocation accounted for 62.3% of injury deaths among infants younger than a year. Alarmingly, the suicide mortality rate rose from 2.16 to 3.42 per 100,000 population between 2010 and 2021 among teenagers aged 15-19 years. Subgroup analyses yielded similar results. During 2010-2021, the injury mortality decreased significantly among Chinese children and adolescents, and the responding urban-rural disparities narrowed.

Human resource allocation status and equity research of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in China from 2016 to 2020.

In recent years, the development of global public health has become a matter of great concern and importance for governments worldwide. China, as the largest developing country, plays a crucial role in shaping the development of the public health and its ability to respond to sudden public health emergencies through the fairness of its human resource allocation in center for disease control and prevention (CDC). This study aims to analyze the situation of health human resource allocation in the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDCs), assess the fairness of the allocation, and provide reference for the rational allocation of human resources. We selected data from the China Health Statistics Yearbook on healthcare technical personnel, other technical personnel, managerial personnel, and workforce technical personnel of China CDCs for the period of 2016-2020. We utilized the Health Resource Density Index to evaluate the level of human resource allocation in China CDCs. Additionally, we used the Gini coefficient and Theil index to assess the fairness of human resource allocation in China CDCs from both a population and geographical perspective. Firstly, the educational qualifications and professional titles of CDC staff have improved, but the workforce is aging. Secondly, HRDI development trends vary among different personnel types and regions with varying levels of economic development. Finally, the results of the Gini coefficient and Theil index indicate that population distribution fairness is better than geographical distribution fairness. Overall, the unfair population distribution is primarily due to regional disparities. The China CDCs should tailor different standards for the allocation of health human resources based on regional characteristics, aiming to enhance the accessibility of health human resources in various regions and achieve equitable allocation.

Trend and Equity in Maternal and Child Health Resource Allocation in China Since the New Health System Reform: A Nationwide Study from 2008 to 2020.

China has made considerable efforts to promote the development of maternal and child health (MCH) care since the new health system reform in 2009. This study aims to evaluate the trend and equity of MCH resources allocation in China from 2008 to 2020 and provide a reference for rational distribution of MCH resources. Data were collected from the China Health Statistics Yearbook and China Statistics Yearbook. The number of MCH hospitals, licensed (assistant) physicians, registered nurses and beds were selected for the measurement of the equity of MCH resources allocation. The Health Resource Agglomeration Degree and Theil index were used in evaluating MCH resource allocation equity and to compare differences among regions. From 2008 to 2020, the average annual growth rates for MCH hospitals, beds, licensed (assistant) physicians, and registered nurses were 0.72%, 6.95%, 5.04%, and 9.57%, respectively. However, regional disparities in the equity of MCH resource allocation have been identified. Although the western region has shown growth in MCH resource allocation by geography, the agglomeration degree of the four indicators remains less than 1, significantly lower than the average value of greater than 2 in the eastern region. Additionally, the equity of human resource allocation in the western region is lower than the equity in the allocation of institutions. In the densely populated eastern region, the equity of MCH resource allocation by population is decreasing, with the agglomeration degree of all four indicators below 1 in 2020. The disparity in healthcare resource allocation within regions is the main cause of inequitable MCH resource allocation in China. The allocation of MCH resources in China has improved since 2009, however, geographic equity needs further improvement, particularly in densely populated regions. Population and geographic balances should be considered in the development and implementation of MCH resource allocation policies, and improving intraregional equity should be the focus.

Dynamic distribution, regional differences and convergence of health workforce allocation in township health centers in China

This study evaluated the dynamic distribution, regional differences, and convergence of health workforce allocation in Township Health Centers in China during 2011–2020 using data obtained from the China Health Statistics Yearbook (2012–2021). The Gini coefficient and kernel density estimation were chosen to examine the dynamic distribution and regional differences in health workforce allocation in Township Health Centers in China and their components. σ convergence and β convergence were used to investigate the change trend of health workforce allocation in Township Health Centers. The results show that between 2011 and 2020, the number of licensed doctors and registered nurses per thousand population in Township Health Centers both increased largely and regional disparities still exist. In 2020, the largest differences in the density of licensed doctors and registered nurses were found in the eastern and central regions, respectively, and the intensity of trans-variation contributed the most to the overall disparities. The allocation of licensed doctors and registered nurses both exhibited σ convergence, absolute and conditional β convergence, indicating that the regional differences in health workforce in THCs among provinces will decrease. The growth of healthcare workforce was positively impacted by the urbanization rate, growth rate of government health expenditures and growth domestic product per capita, but negatively impacted by population density in rural areas and fiscal self-sufficiency.

A comparative evaluation of child health care in China using multicriteria decision analysis methods

Child health is an important public health issue in China and the Chinese government always attached great importance to child health care. With the implementation of a series of medical and health reforms in China in recent decades, the status of child health improved year by year. Objectives This study aims to comprehensively evaluate if the measures implemented in the medical and health reforms effectively promoted the development of Chinese child health care in recent years and provide theoretical support for future decision-making on the policies of child health care in China. Methods A total of six indicators were selected from the China Health Statistics Yearbook. Based on the multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) algorithm, three different evaluation methods were applied in the study, which are the weighted technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) method, the weighted rank-sum ratio (RSR) method, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE). Each indicator's weight was calculated by the entropy weight methods objectively. The sensitivity analysis was conducted to validate the stability and accuracy of the rank results.Results The results indicated that the rank values of each year’s child health care calculated by the different evaluation methods were not exactly the same, but the overall trend is consistent which is that child health care in China improved year by year from 2000 to 2020. The top 5 were ranked from 2016-2020 and the bottom 5 were ranked from 2000-2004. Conclusions The results indicated that the policies and measures implemented in the medical and health reforms, as well as improved sanitation conditions, availability of healthy food and water, etc., have jointly promoted the development of child health care in China in the past 20 years, providing a scientific theoretical basis for future policy-making to promote child health care.

Long-term trends of nasopharyngeal carcinoma mortality in China from 2006 to 2020 by region and sex: an age-period-cohort analysis

BackgroundChina has a high mortality from nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). The NPC mortality trends in China from 2006 to 2020 were described and analyzed to understand its epidemiological characteristics by region and sex and to explore age, period, and cohort effects.MethodsThis study utilized NPC mortality data from the China Health Statistical Yearbook. A joinpoint regression model was used to fit the standardized NPC mortality and age-specific mortality. The age-period-cohort model was applied to investigate age, period, and cohort effects on NPC mortality risk.ResultsThe results showed that the NPC mortality rate in China has been declining steadily. From 2006 to 2020, the standardized NPC mortality rate in most age groups showed a significant downward trend. The annual percentage change was smaller in rural areas than in urban areas. The mortality risks of rural males and rural females from 2016 to 2020 were 1.139 times and 1.080 times those from 2011 to 2015, respectively. Both urban males born in 1984–1988 and rural males born in 1979–1983 exhibited an increasing trend in NPC mortality risk.ConclusionsOur study confirmed the effectiveness of NPC prevention and treatment strategies in China from 2006 to 2020. However, it underscored the urgent need for targeted interventions in rural areas to further reduce NPC mortality rates.

Research of Combined ES-BP Model in Predicting Syphilis Incidence 1982-2020 in Mainland China.

Syphilis remains a major public health concern in China. We aimed to construct an optimum model to forecast syphilis epidemic trends and provide effective precautionary measures for prevention and control. Data on the incidence of syphilis between 1982 and 2020 were obtained from the China Health Statistics Yearbook. An exponential smoothing model (ES model) and a BP neural network model were constructed, and on this basis, the ES-BP combination model was created. The prediction performance was assessed to compare the MAE (Mean Absolute Error), MSE (Mean Squared Error), MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error), and RMSE (Root Mean Square Error). The optimum ES model was Brown's linear trend model, which had the lowest MAE and MAPE values, and its residual was a white noise sequence (P=0.359). The optimum BP neural network model had three layers with the number of nodes in the input, hidden, and output layers set to 5, 11, and 1, and the mean values of MAE, MSE, and RMSE by five-fold cross-validation were 1.519, 6.894, and 1.969, respectively. The ES-BP combination model had three layers, with model nodes 1, 4, and 1. The lowest mean values of MAE, MSE, and RMSE obtained by five-fold cross-validation were 1.265, 5.739, and 2.105, respectively. The ES, BP neural network, and ES-BP combination models can be used to predict syphilis incidence, but the prediction performance of the ES-BP combination model is better than that of a basic ES model and a basic BP neural network model.

Asthma prevalence based on the Baidu index and China's Health Statistical Yearbook from 2011 to 2020 in China.

Due to environmental pollution, changes in lifestyle, and advancements in diagnostic technology, the prevalence of asthma has been increasing over the years. Although China has made early efforts in asthma epidemiology and prevention, there is still a lack of unified and comprehensive epidemiological research within the country. The objective of the study is to determine the nationwide prevalence distribution of asthma using the Baidu Index and China's Health Statistical Yearbook. Based on China's Health Statistical Yearbook, we analyzed the gender and age distribution of asthma in China from 2011 to 2020, as well as the length of hospitalization and associated costs. By utilizing the Baidu Index and setting the covering all 31 provinces and autonomous regions in China, we obtained the Baidu Index for the keyword 'asthma'. Heatmaps and growth ratios described the prevalence and growth of asthma in mainland China. The average expenditure for discharged asthma (standard deviation) patients was ¥5,870 (808). The average length of stay (standard deviation) was 7.9 (0.38) days. During the period of 2011 to 2020, hospitalization expenses for asthma increased while the length of hospital stay decreased. The proportion of discharged patients who were children under the age of 5 were 25.3% (2011), 19.4% (2012), 16% (2013), 17.9% (2014), 13.9% (2015), 11.3% (2016), 10.2% (2017), 9.4% (2018), 8.1% (2019), and 7.2% (2020), respectively. The prevalence of asthma among boys was higher than girls before the age of 14. In contrast, the proportion of women with asthma was larger than men after the age of 14. During the period from 2011 to 2020, the median [The first quartile (Q1)-the third quartile (Q3)] daily asthma Baidu index in Guangdong, Beijing, Jiangsu, Sichuan, and Zhejiang were 419 (279-476), 328 (258-376), 315 (227-365), 272 (166-313), and 312 (233-362) respectively. Coastal regions showed higher levels of attention toward asthma, indicating a higher incidence rate. Since 2014, there has been a rapid increase in the level of attention toward asthma, with the provinces of Qinghai, Sichuan, and Guangdong experiencing the fastest growth. There are regional variations in the prevalence of asthma among different provinces in China, and the overall prevalence of asthma is increasing.

Province-level distribution and drivers of infant mortality in mainland China: a Geodetector-based analysis of data from 2020

ObjectiveThe present study investigated the province-level distribution and drivers of infant mortality rate (IMR) in mainland China.DesignEcological analysis based on publicly available data for all 31 provinces in mainland China.Data...

Analysis of factors influencing the organizational capacity of Institutional Review Boards In China: a crisp-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis based on 107 cases

BackgroundInstitutional Review Boards (IRBs) play a vital role in safeguarding the rights and interests of both research participants and researchers. However, China initiated the establishment of its own IRB system relatively late in comparison to international standards. Despite commendable progress, there is a pressing need to strengthen the organizational capacity building of Chinese IRBs. Hence, this study aims to analyze the key factors driving the enhancement of organizational capacity within these committees.MethodThe cross-sectional survey for this research was conducted from July 2020 to January 2022. Following the statistical grouping based on the "2020 China Health Statistical Yearbook", a systematic investigation of IRBs in various provinces of China was carried out. In-depth interviews and questionnaire surveys were conducted with the chairpersons and administrative executives (or secretaries) of highly cooperative IRBs. Subsequently, data were collected from 107 IRBs. Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) was employed as the method to analyze the factors influencing the organizational capacity of medical ethics committees and explore the diverse combinations of these factors.ResultsThrough a singular necessary condition analysis, the variable "protection of rights and interests" emerges as a critical factor contributing to the robust construction of Institutional Review Boards Institutional Review Boards (IRBs). Conversely, the variables of "lack of member ability, absence of review process, and deficiency in the supervision mechanism" collectively constitute a sufficient condition leading to weaker IRB construction. The state analysis uncovers three interpretation modes: member ability-oriented (M1), system process-oriented mode (M2), and resource system-oriented mode (M3).ConclusionsThe results of this study are effectively explicable using the "Triangular Force" model proposed for the hypothesis of IRBs' organizational capacity, which provides a solid foundation for the development of organizational capabilities in IRBs. To enhance the organizational capacity of IRBs in China, it is imperative to elevate the competence of committee members and strengthen team development. This can be achieved by establishing a comprehensive regulatory framework and refining procedural protocols. Moreover, clarifying the organizational structure and optimizing resource allocation are essential steps in bolstering the overall organizational capabilities of these committees.

Impact of changing the prevalence of smoking, alcohol consumption and overweight/obesity on cancer incidence in China from 2021 to 2050: a simulation modelling study

Smoking, alcohol consumption and overweight/obesity are key cancer risk factors contributing to the cancer burden in China. We aimed to quantify the cancer burden in China associated with smoking, alcohol consumption and overweight/obesity, and estimate the potential effect for cancer prevention interventions under different scenarios. We used a macro-simulation approach called Prevent Model to estimate for a 30-year study period (2021-2050) numbers and proportions of future avoidable cancer cases under different scenarios of reducing the prevalence of smoking, alcohol consumption and overweight/obesity in Chinese adults. Cancer incidence was predicted under three scenarios: elimination, ambitious target (between elimination and manageable target) and manageable target (from national policy or global action plan). Risk factor prevalence was obtained from China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance, and cancer incidence data were derived from the China Cancer Registry Annual Report. Relative risks were obtained from several recent large-scale studies or high-quality meta-analysis. Population data were extracted from the China Population & Employment Statistical Yearbook, China Health Statistical Yearbook and World Population Prospects. Estimates of the avoidable cancer burden varied with different scenarios. In the theoretical maximum intervention scenario, where the prevalence of smoking, alcohol consumption and overweight/obesity would be eliminated, 9.17% (males: 13.50%; females: 1.47%) of smoking-related cancer cases, 7.06% (males: 11.49%; females: 1.00%) of cancer cases related to alcohol consumption and 8.22% (males: 7.91%; females: 8.52%) of overweight/obesity-related cancer cases were estimated to be avoidable during 2021-2050. Other scenarios, with more moderate goals in the exposure prevalence of smoking, alcohol use and overweight/obesity were also found to be associated with substantial reductions in the future cancer burden. Our results suggested that a substantial number of future cancer cases could be avoided in Chinese adults by reducing the prevalence of smoking, alcohol consumption and overweight/obesity. National Science & Technology Fundamental Resources Investigation Program of China; Sanming Project of Medicine in Shenzhen.

Spatio-temporal pattern, matching level and prediction of ageing and medical resources in China

ObjectivePopulation ageing, as a hot issue in global development, increases the burden of medical resources in society. This study aims to assess the current spatiotemporal evolution and interaction between population ageing and medical resources in mainland China; evaluate the matching level of medical resources to population ageing; and forecast future trends of ageing, medical resources, and the indicator of ageing-resources (IAR).MethodsData on ageing (EPR) and medical resources (NHI, NBHI, and NHTP) were obtained from China Health Statistics Yearbook and China Statistical Yearbook (2011–2020). We employed spatial autocorrelation to examine the spatial–temporal distribution trends and analyzed the spatio-temporal interaction using a Bayesian spatio-temporal effect model. The IAR, an improved evaluation indicator, was used to measure the matching level of medical resources to population ageing with kernel density analysis for visualization. Finally, an ETS-DNN model was used to forecast the trends in population ageing, medical resources, and their matching level over the next decade.ResultsThe study found that China's ageing population and medical resources are growing annually, yet distribution is uneven across districts. There is a spatio-temporal interaction effect between ageing and medical resources, with higher levels of both in Eastern China and lower levels in Western China. The IAR is relatively high in Northwest, North China, and the Yangtze River Delta, but showed a declining trend in North China and the Yangtze River Delta. The hybrid model (ETS-DNN) gained an R2 of 0.9719, and the predicted median IAR for 2030 (0.99) across 31 regions was higher than the median IAR for 2020 (0.93).ConclusionThis study analyzes the relationship between population ageing and medical resources, revealing a spatio-temporal interaction between them. The IAR evaluation indicator highlights the need to address ageing population challenges and cultivate a competent health workforce. The ETS-DNN forecasts indicate higher concentrations of both medical resources and ageing populations in eastern China, emphasizing the need for region-specific ageing security systems and health service industries. The findings provide valuable policy insights for addressing a hyper-aged society in the future.