Greenhouse Gases In China Research Articles

Variations in Column Concentration of Greenhouse Gases in China and Their Response to the 2015–2016 El Niño Event

Variations in Column Concentration of Greenhouse Gases in China and Their Response to the 2015–2016 El Niño Event

A review of ozone-depleting substances and fluorinated greenhouse gases in China

A review of ozone-depleting substances and fluorinated greenhouse gases in China

Optimizing the rate of straw returning to balance trade-offs between carbon emission budget and rice yield in China

Rice paddies are a prominent contributor to greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions, accounting for 22 % of the overall agricultural methane (CH4) emissions. Although returning rice straw to the field can increase yield and soil organic carbon (SOC), the significant GHGs released during this process often negate these positive effects. Thus, understanding the impact of straw returning on the relationship between rice yield and GHGs is crucial for farming adaptation and climate change mitigation. This study aims to investigate the effects of varying straw returning rates on rice yield and GHGs in China and identify the optimal rates on a provincial scale. This study utilized county-level meteorological, soil, and field management data. The Dynamic Nitrogen and Carbon Model (DNDC) model was used to simulate the impacts on rice yield, GHGs, and SOC changes under different straw returning rates in China from 2010 to 2022, including no straw, 1/3, 2/3, and full straw returning. The results showed that 1/3, 2/3, and full straw incorporation increased rice yield per unit area by 1.07 %, 2.25 %, and 3.26 % for single rice cropping, 1.10 %, 2.24 %, and 3.52 % for early rice, and 1.92 %, 3.91 %, and 5.95 % for late rice, respectively. Compared with no straw returning, the total SOC content (0–50 cm) increased by 3.88 % (78.07 Tg), 7.75 % (156.09 Tg), and 11.65 % (234.62 Tg) under 1/3, 2/3, and full straw returning, respectively. However, the total GHGs were increased by 23.32 %, 43.50 %, and 61.48 % for 1/3, 2/3, and full straw incorporation compared to no straw returning. While the overall benefits of straw returning varied across regions, in certain areas like northeastern China, Xinjiang, and Yunnan, an increase in straw returning rates leads to a significant increase in yield with a relatively smaller increase in GHGs. This can be attributed to factors such as lower temperatures, decreased SOC, and lower soil pH, restricting CH4 production. Conversely, in regions with higher soil pH, such as north China and the Sichuan Basin, as well as in warmer southern areas, the increase in GHGs is quite pronounced. In summary, implementing straw returning significantly increases rice production and SOC but simultaneously increases GHGs. In China, the most widespread utilization of rice straw remains straw returning. We have summarized the average impact of straw returning on yield, SOC, and GHGs, and proposed straw returning rates tailored to the comprehensive benefits in different regions, to enhance the carbon sequestration and emission reduction rate of rice straw returning.

Health benefits of vehicle electrification through air pollution in Shanghai, China

Vehicle electrification has been recognized for its potential to reduce emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases in China. Several studies have estimated how national-level policies of electric vehicle (EV) adoption might bring very large environmental and public health benefits from improved air quality to China. However, large-scale adoption is very costly, some regions derive more benefits from large-scale EV adoption than others, and the benefits of replacing internal combustion engines in specific cities are less known. Therefore, it is important for policymakers to design incentives based on regional characteristics – especially for megacities like Shanghai – which typically suffer from worse air quality and where a larger population is exposed to emissions from vehicles. Over the past five years, Shanghai has offered substantial personal subsidies for passenger EVs to accelerate its electrification efforts. Still, it remains uncertain whether EV benefits justify the strength of incentives. The purpose of our study is to evaluate the health and climate benefits of replacing light-duty gasoline vehicles (ICEVs) with battery EVs in the city of Shanghai. We assess health impacts due to ICEV emissions of primary fine particulate matter, NOx, and volatile organic compounds, and to powerplant emissions of NOx and SO2 due to EV charging. We incorporate climate benefits from reduced greenhouse gas emissions based on existing research. We find that the benefit of replacing the average ICEV with an EV in Shanghai is US$6400 (2400-14,700), with health impacts of EVs about 20 times lower than the average ICEV. Larger benefits ensue if older ICEVs are replaced, but replacing newer China ICEVs also achieves positive health benefits. As Shanghai plans to stop providing personal subsidies for EV purchases in 2024, our results show that EVs achieve public health and climate benefits and can help inform policymaking strategies in Shanghai and other megacities.

Role of ESG investments in achieving COP-26 targets

This study aims to evaluate the relationship between Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) and the goals of COP-26 (reduction of greenhouse gas emissions) in China by applying the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing technique with annual data from to 1990–2021. The main findings confirmed that, in the long term, with a 1% improvement in ESG investment, GHG emissions of greenhouse gases in China will decrease by 0.0046%. Simultaneously, ESG had a negative and significant effect in the short term. With a 1% increase in this variable, China's greenhouse gas emissions will decrease by 1.391%. The recommended practical policies in this study are establishing an ESG-investing network (ESGIN), introduction and implementation of ESG investing law, improving digital ESG investing, and enhancing an ESG-oriented culture in business.

Analyzing multi-greenhouse gas mitigation of China using a general equilibrium model

Climate actions have focused on CO2 mitigation and only some studies of China consider non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), which account for nearly 18% of gross GHG emissions. The economy-wide impact of mitigation covering CO2 and non-CO2 GHGs in China, has not been comprehensively studied and we develop a multi-sector dynamic model to compare the impact of CO2-only mitigation with a multi-GHG mitigation policy that also price non-CO2 GHGs. We find that the multi-GHG approach significantly reduces the marginal abatement cost and economic loss to reach the same level of GHG emissions (measures as 100 year global warming potential) compared to a CO2-only scenario. By 2060, multi-gas mitigation can reduce the tax rate by 15.44% and improve real gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.41%. The aggregate gain brought by multi-GHG mitigation are robust to various pathways and but vary across periods and sectors.

An inversion model based on GEOS-Chem for estimating global and China's terrestrial carbon fluxes in 2019

The 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories added the method of assimilating atmospheric CO2 concentrations to invert carbon sources and sinks; however, many global carbon inversion models are not publicly available. In addition, our regional assimilation inversion system, CCMVS-R (China Carbon Monitoring, Verification and Supporting for Regional), needs a global carbon inversion model with higher assimilation efficiency to provide boundary conditions. Here, an inversion model based on the global atmospheric chemistry model GEOS-Chem and a more accurate and easier-to-implement ensemble square root Kalman filter (EnSRF) algorithm is constructed and used to infer global and China's carbon fluxes in 2019. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations from ObsPack sites and five additional CO2 observational sites from China's Greenhouse Gas Observation Network (CGHGNET) were used for data assimilation to improve the estimate. The inverted annual global terrestrial and oceanic carbon uptake is 2.12 and 2.53 Pg C per year, respectively, accounting for 21.1% and 25.1% of global fossil fuel CO2 emissions. The remaining 5.41 Pg C per year in the atmosphere is consistent with the global atmospheric CO2 growth rates of 5.44 Pg C per year reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), showing that the inversion model can provide a reasonable estimate of global-scale natural carbon sinks. The inverted terrestrial carbon sink of China is 0.37 Pg C per year, accounting for approximately 13% of China's fossil CO2 emissions.

Integrating the inter- and intra-annual dynamic features of capital into environmental footprint assessment: Revisiting China's greenhouse gas footprints, 1995-2015

Assessments of the displacement of pollution emissions or other resources through trade attribute local production to remote consumers, yielding environmental footprints for the respective regions. Recently, the previously neglected temporal dimension of capital goods—built up in the past and continuously serving production activities in the future—has received increasing attention in environmental footprint assessments. Based on an inter-annual dynamic capital-endogenised multi-regional input-output model, this study further integrates the intra-annual dynamic features of capital production and consumption. We quantify the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions embodied in China's capital consumption over the past two decades and assign this part of GHG emissions into finished goods and services over time. Our results show that China's GHG footprint in 2015 would be 7 Gt if capital-related GHG emissions were considered. This figure is 28% higher than the GHG footprints of China's final consumption estimated by conventional consumption-based accounting (CBA) and 41% lower than that of China's final demand estimated by conventional CBA. Overall, around 8% of GHG footprints would be overestimated if we do not consider the intra-annual dynamic feature of capital in the assessment. The inter-annual allocation shows that the capital-related GHGs of China's final consumption emitted on average in the last six years, which is still increasing owing to the long lifespans of capital assets. In light of the synergies among capital development, environmental sustainability, and human needs satisfaction, it is vital to uphold economic and environmental efficiency in capital development decision-making.

Potential biomethane production from crop residues in China: Contributions to carbon neutrality

The Chinese government has set an ambitious goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Realizing negative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will require technologies like anaerobic digestion to recover biomethane from organic biomass. As the world's main grain-producing country, China has abundant crop residues, >85% of which were utilized as fertilizer, fodder, industrial material, biofuel, and base material in 2019. However, the potential contribution of crop residues to energy and reduced GHG emissions following anaerobic digestion have been scarcely evaluated. Based on crop yield and the field residue index, the annual quantity of crop residues in China from 2000 to 2019 was estimated. The annual crop residue yield increased between 2003 and 2014, and then remained constant at ~970 × 106 t/a, with an estimated 495 × 106 t/a being available for biomethane production. This corresponded to a potential biomethane yield of 82.25 × 109 m3/a, which could have met 29.2% of the annual natural gas consumption and 2.25% of the annual energy consumption in China in 2018 and 2019, respectively. Furthermore, the estimated potential GHG emission reduction was 197 × 106 t/a (CO2 equivalent), representing ~2% of China's GHG emissions in 2019. Nevertheless, to reach the expected goal, some crucial technical and equipment-oriented research and development should be promoted to adapt to the characteristics of China's crop residues and regional environment. Moreover, governmental support policies on subsidies would be required for the development of the biomethane industry, which should prioritize northern regions with relatively high quantities of crop residues.

How will the greening policy contribute to China's greenhouse gas emission mitigation? A non-parametric forecast

On March 24, 2015, a political bureau meeting of the Communist Party of China Central Committee first proposed the political task of “greening” and placed unprecedented importance on the construction of an ecological civilization, aiming to guide China's economy and society toward green and low carbon development. This study aims to examine the impact of this “greening” policy on China's climate change mitigation. First, from an emissions reduction perspective, this study interprets greening as the process of constantly strengthening society's awareness and willingness regarding emissions reduction. Then, this study incorporates a carbon abatement willingness factor into a nonparametric model, and quantitatively simulates the impact of greening on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reduction in China. The results show that China can rapidly decrease its CO2 emissions in the early stages of greening. However, when greening passes a certain stage, it no longer affects CO2 emissions. Thus, the willingness to reduce emissions has a diminishing marginal effect on emissions reduction. Additionally, throughout the greening process, China is expected to reduce its CO2 emissions by 36.08%, or 3718.50 million tons. Finally, the impact of greening on China's CO2 emissions exhibits spatial variation, as its undeveloped western region can achieve greater CO2 emissions reductions by promoting greening. Base on the above results, corresponding policy implications are also provided at the end of this paper.

Analyzing the spatial network structure of agricultural greenhouse gases in China.

Investigating the regional correlation and factors affecting agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can help establish a regional mechanism for the synergistic reduction of emissions and produce chain-like reductions. Different from the traditional geographical relationship analysis framework, linear analysis ideas, we use social network analysis to discern the regional correlations in agricultural GHG emissions from a relational network viewpoint, clarify the network functions of each node, and explain agricultural GHG correlation from a spatial, economic, and technological viewpoint by nonparametric regression. The results indicate that (1) the emission network is stable and there is a relationship of control between regions, (2) Central China is the most important region in agricultural GHG networks; however, the importance of the northwest and southwest has increased; the northeast has remained relatively independent, (3) influencers are mainly concentrated in the middle of the Yangtze River and the northwest, while dependentors are concentrated in municipalities such as Beijing and Tianjin, and the coastal regions in the southeast, and (4) the interprovincial agricultural GHG correlation can be enhanced by shortening the spatial distance, strengthening economic ties, and increasing the diffusion of technology. Implementing a "leader-follower" strategy according to the role of each region and enhancing the intermediator's "conduit" role will ultimately lead to the formation of an interprovincial interactive and cooperative emission reduction mechanism.

Carbon emission assessment and control measures for coal mining in China

Coal is the most important primary energy in China. Although the proportion of coal in China's total energy consumption continues to decline it will still be the main energy in China for a long time in the future. As the largest contributor to China's greenhouse gas emissions, the energy conservation and emission reduction of coal industry will be the most critical step for China to cope with global climate change and solve environmental problems at present and in the future for a long time. The object of this study was coal mining in China. Life cycle assessment (LCA) was used to quantify carbon emissions in whole process of coal mining, including mining, ventilation, drainage, power consumption, transportation, and post-mining activities. The analysis result shows that the carbon emissions of producing tons of coal are 164.403 kg of carbon dioxide equivalent per ton. The analysis further emphasizes that the methane contributes the most, accounting for 62.21% of the total emissions, and plays an important role in the full life cycle of coal mining. Therefore, it presents a potential to mitigate the environmental impact of coal mining, and its main task is to recover and recycle methane. Based on the technical level, this study puts forward the low-carbon development countermeasures for coal enterprises. Then the technical system of methane emission control and utilization is constructed from three aspects: coal-bed methane development, gas extraction, and utilization and gas utilization. Finally, a trinity resource utilization system of coal mine gas is constructed. This study hopes to help practitioners to realize the importance of coal mine methane to the coal mining process. If the efficient resource utilization of methane be realized, it could not only save energy and reduce emissions in coal enterprises, but also promote the safety production of coal mines and improve the economic benefits of coal mines. It is also of great significance for optimizing China's energy structure, realizing low-carbon transformation, and safeguarding China's strategic energy security.

Research on the relationship between China's greenhouse gas emissions and industrial structure and economic growth from the perspective of energy consumption.

A comprehensive understanding of the relationships between greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and industrial structure and economic growth holds great significance for China to realize the development of a green economy. This paper calculates GHG emissions based on China's energy consumption, divides the industrial structure in detail, and uses the extended Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology model that is realized by PLS method and Tapio decoupling model to study the relationship of GHG emissions to industrial structure and economic growth. The results show that (1) China's total GHG emissions showed a year-on-year growth trend from 2000 to 2017. For CO2, CH4, and N2O, only N2O emission showed a significant downward trend, while CO2 and CH4 emissions showed a slow growth trend. (2) The proportions of added value of industry and construction are positively correlated with GHG emissions, while those of farming, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery; wholesale and retail trade; transport; and accommodation and catering are negatively correlated with GHG emissions. (3) China's GHG emissions and overall economic growth are in a decoupling state, but in the energy field, N2O emission reduction control has the best effect. Additionally, the overall economic growth of China's industrial sector and GHG emissions have experienced the process of decoupling-link-negative decoupling-link-decoupling. Graphical abstract.

Study on the impact of climate change in China

Global warming is not only an important problem in the survival and development of human beings, but also an urgent problem to be solved by the contemporary government. China is not only a big country in the world, but also ranks first in the world in total population, economic scale and economic growth rate. With the improvement of the national economic strength, China's greenhouse gas emissions are also increasing year by year, the ecological environment has been seriously damaged, leading to the rising of the environment at the same time is also facing severe environmental challenges and huge pressure to reduce emissions, so, How to deal with the problem of climate warming is particularly important in China.

Simulating the Potential Sequestration of Three Major Greenhouse Gases in China’s Natural Ecosystems

The greenhouse gases sequestrated by ecosystems are of great relevance to global carbon cycle and climate regulation. However, it is time-consuming and laborious to conduct sampling analysis, and it is also difficult to analyze the variation of potential sequestration of various ecosystems for greenhouse gases in China. This study used six 5-year periods of land use data for China between 1990 and 2015 to analyze the changes of three natural ecosystems (forest, grassland, and wetland). Correspondingly, the potential sequestration of the three ecosystems for three major greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide) during the 25 years were simulated through a greenhouse gas value (GHGV) model. The GHGV model was found to be a reliable alternative to calculating the carbon sequestration of natural ecosystems in China. The total greenhouse gas sequestration of China’s natural ecosystems remained at around 267 Pg CO2-equivalent; however, the greenhouse gas sequestration had decreased by 3.3 Pg CO2-equivalent between 1990 and 2015. Comparison of the simulation results of the GHGV model based on the localized parameters and the model default parameters revealed that the simulated potential sequestration of the greenhouse gases for forest and wetland ecosystems (but not the grassland ecosystem) were smaller when run with localized parameters than the model default parameters. Moreover, the carbon sequestration of natural ecosystems was greater than the amount of anthropogenic carbon emissions, but the potential sequestration of natural ecosystems for greenhouse gas has become increasingly limited. Our study reveals the model can act as an important supplement for assessing the potential sequestration of the greenhouse gases for ecosystems at a regional scale.

中国森林面积变化及其温室气体储量模拟研究

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 中国森林面积变化及其温室气体储量模拟研究 DOI: 10.5846/stxb201812312853 作者: 作者单位: 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目（41671425，41401504） Modeling greenhouse gas sequestration potential of forest change in China Author: Affiliation: Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:陆地生态系统承载的温室气体对全球碳循环及气候调节服务意义重大，森林生态系统是陆地生态系统的重要组成部分，量化森林对温室气体的储量有利于从生物地球化学角度研究全球变化问题。针对中国森林生态系统承载的温室气体在大尺度上无法有效量化的问题，基于2000与2010年两期土地利用数据和前人的相关研究，通过一个生态系统温室气体值模型，模拟得到中国森林生态系统承载的三大主要温室气体（CO2，CH4，N2O）的量。结果表明：（1）中国森林生态系统的面积从2000年的224.3×106 hm2略增到2010的224.6×106 hm2；其中落叶阔叶林、常绿阔叶林和针叶林的面积减少，而混交林与灌木林的面积增加；（2）对应地，2000和2010年中国森林的温室气体储量分别为154.03和154.37 Pg CO2当量，10年间增加了0.34 Pg CO2当量。其中，常绿针叶林、常绿阔叶林、落叶阔叶林在研究时段内的GHG储量减少，而混交林和灌木林增加。分区来看，温室气体储量增长较多的区域有华北、西北与西南地区，分别增长了0.13 Pg CO2、0.12 Pg CO2与0.15 Pg CO2当量。温室气体储量减少较明显的是东北地区，减少了约0.1 Pg CO2当量。本研究分别用本地化参数和模型自带参数，首次尝试对中国森林生态系统的GHG储量进行了模拟研究，并与他人的研究做了对比分析。研究同时发现，当前的相关研究存在很多不确定性，未来需要多源数据和方法提升精度，而模型模拟是一个重要的手段。 Abstract:Greenhouse gases carried by terrestrial ecosystems are of great significance to the global carbon cycle and climate regulation services. Forests are an important part of terrestrial ecosystems and quantifying the greenhouse gas sequestration potential of forests can analyze global change directly from a biogeochemical perspective. However, greenhouse gases carried by China's forests have not currently be effectively quantified on a large scale. In this study, based on land use data of 2000 and 2010, and previous studies on forest carbon storage, we simulated the sequestration potentials of three main greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O) in forests in China through a greenhouse gas value model. The results showed that:(1) China's forest area increased slightly from 2.243 million km2 in 2000 to 2.246 million km2 in 2010; among them, areas of deciduous broad-leaved, evergreen broad-leaved, and coniferous forests all decreased, whereas the areas of mixed and shrub forests increased; (2) correspondingly, the sequestration potential of greenhouse gas for China's forests was equivalent to 154.03 and 154.37 Pg CO2 in 2000 and 2010, respectively, increasing by about 0.34 Pg CO2 during our study period. The sequestration potential in evergreen coniferous, evergreen broad-leaved, and deciduous broad-leaved forests decreased during 2000-2010, whereas the sequestration potential in mixed and shrub forests increased. Regarding spatial patterns, sequestration potentials in North, Northwest, and Southwest China all increased largely, with an increase of 0.13, 0.12, and 0.15 Pg CO2, respectively. The sequestration potential in Northeast China was obviously decreased, with a reduction of about 0.1 Pg CO2. This study used the localization parameters and model's own parameters to simulate the sequestration potential of greenhouse gases in China's forests for the first time, and compared our simulated results with those from others research. This study also found that various definitions and data sources on forests had many problems. In the future, it is necessary to refine the model parameters within ecosystems under a unified framework and consider using multi-resource data to improve the accuracy of sequestration potential. Model simulation should be used as an important and effective study method. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献

Carbon Footprint of the Agricultural Sector in Qinghai Province, China

The agricultural sector has become an important emitter of greenhouse gases in China. The CO2 emissions in the western undeveloped region have attracted less attention than those in the eastern developed region in China. In this paper, the change in carbon footprint (CF) caused by agrochemical and agricultural energy inputs, the contributions of various inputs to the total carbon footprint (TCF), and the different changing trends between carbon intensity in output value (CV) and carbon intensity in area (CA) in Qinghai province were studied based on the data for agrochemical and energy inputs over 1995–2016. The change in TCF had a roughly stable period over 1995–1999, a slowly decreasing period over 2000–2007, and a rapidly increasing period over 2008–2016, which generally synchronize with the periods of before the Grain for Green Policy (GFGP), during the GFGP, and after the GFGP, respectively. The chemical nitrogen fertilizer and energy inputs were the principal factors influencing the TCF. The N fertilizer was the highest contributor to the TCF and contributed more to the relatively lower TCF during the GFGP in the study area. The relative CF caused by plastic film and diesel input in the study area increased faster than that in the whole country. The CV declined, with a mean of 0.022 kg carbon equivalent (CE)/Chinese Yuan (CNY), which was 55.59% of the mean CV in China over 1995–2016; inversely, the CA obviously rose after 2007, with a mean of 5.11 kg CE/ha, which was only 1.94% of the mean CA in China from 1995 to 2016. Compared with the whole country, Qinghai province generally had a higher rate of increase of carbon efficiency accompanied by a higher rate of increase of CA. The improvements of local agricultural activities should aim to keep a balance between higher carbon efficiency and lower CA in the study area.

Emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases from livestock in China during 2000–2015: Magnitude, trends and spatiotemporal patterns

Livestock production, an important source for non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs) including methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) in China, has changed remarkably over the past decades due to economic development and demand for livestock product. However, the variation of non-CO2 GHGs from China's livestock have not received sufficient attention in existing literature. Here, we examine the spatiotemporal patterns of emissions of CH4 and N2O from main livestock in China as well as their long-term trends during the period 2000–2015. Results suggest that the livestock sourced emissions of non-CO2 GHGs in China experienced three phases: a rapid increase from 2000 to 2006, followed by a sharp drop in 2007 and then a slow increase at a lower level from 2008 to 2015. The 2007 drop reflects the impact of macro-control policies on livestock development and extensive measures taken on livestock to control the flu outbreak that year, and the slower increase from 2008 to 2015 with respect to the period 2000–2006 reflects the changes in livestock categories and a general improvement in production efficiency. Spatiotemporal patterns demonstrate that traditional livestock provinces including Henan, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Yunnan and Hunan stood out as top six provinces in emission of non-CO2 GHGs in 2015. On the other hand, provinces like Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning and Xinjiang, identified as the emerging provinces, demonstrate the highest growth rates over the last decades. We find that different livestock categories dominated the difference in pattern of non-CO2 GHG emissions in both provinces with high emissions and those with high growth rates. Mitigation measures and policies suggestions should not only focus on high non-CO2 GHG emissions provinces, but also pay attention to the emerging new sources.

Medium-to-long-term coupled strategies for energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions reduction in Beijing (China)

China's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are projected to peak by 2030 and China makes great efforts to reach the peak as soon as possible. As the ‘frontier’ of Chinese Reform and Opening-up, Beijing has set a goal in 13th Five-Year Plan that local GHG emissions will peak by 2020. This research analyzes the situations of socio-economic development and energy consumption in Beijing and establishes LEAP-Beijing model for the medium-to-long-term prediction of GHG emissions. The energy demand module in LEAP model has six branches, including civilian sector, agriculture, industry, construction industry, transportation and service sector. The analysis and evaluation of their potentials to cut emissions and the difficulties to implement can help Beijing determine the development priority and take right measures to develop a low-carbon society. Four scenarios are set in LEAP-Beijing model, including Business-As-Usual scenario (BAU), Low-Carbon scenario (LC), Enhanced Low-Carbon scenario (ELC) and Peak-Reaching scenario (PR). These scenarios are applied to analyze the total amount of GHG emissions in Beijing and how the peak-reaching time varies due to the impacts of different policies.

Estimating air pollution transfer by interprovincial electricity transmissions: The case study of the Yangtze River Delta Region of China

Abstract Interprovincial electricity transmissions have profoundly affected the emission patterns of air pollutants and greenhouse gases in China. Here, we estimate the air pollution transfer by interprovincial electricity transmission, taking Yangtze River Delta Region (YRDR) of China as an example. The results show that the YRDR received 153.01 billion kWh of electricity from other regions in 2015, accounting for 13.06% of its total electricity consumption; these other regions mainly included Sichuan, Shanxi, Hubei, Henan and Fujian. Air pollutants emissions, including 20.50 kt of SO2, 22.40 kt of NOX, 4.30 kt of dust, and 39.23 Mt of CO2, were transferred to generation-side regions by electricity transmissions, of which 34% were transferred to Shanxi, 31% to Sichuan, and 29% to Hubei. Then, different schemes to achieve interregional compensation were explored and compared based on previous studies and a 2015 simulation scenario. Direct electricity purchasing can promote renewable energy development but is the most cost, while pollutants emission trading is a scheme to promote the establishment of a reliable and efficient market. It is suggested that integrated schemes will promote collaboration between generation regions and consumption regions to realize sustainable targets on both sides.