China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset Research Articles

The contrasting interannual variation and mechanism of the first rainy season precipitation before and after the South China Sea summer monsoon onset

The first rainy season (FRS) is usually considered as a whole when its precipitation variability and the underlying mechanism are discussed. This strategy does not consider the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset occurring within the FRS, which implies an abrupt change in nature and, thereby, the possible characteristics and mechanism of precipitation. To overcome this deficiency, this study divides the FRS into two stages before and after the SCSSM onset, revisits their interannual precipitation variability, and finds remarkable differences in the two FRS stages. During the FRS stage before the SCSSM onset, enhanced precipitation is accompanied by an anticyclone centered on the Indian Peninsula and extending further eastward to the Philippines, active synoptic-scale disturbances in the upstream regions of South China and an anomalous anticyclone in the mid-latitudes of East Asia. This configuration reinforces the warm-moisture air transportation from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea and cold air invasion from the mid-latitude regions to South China. It shapes the pattern of initial ascending motions over South China by both dynamical and thermal forcing. During the FRS stage after the SCSSM onset, in contrast, enhanced precipitation is accompanied by an anomalous anticyclone in the western North Pacific and the mid-latitude Silk Road pattern. This configuration reinforces warm-moisture air transportation from the tropical Western Pacific and cold air from the northwest direction to South China and shapes the initial ascending motion mainly by thermal forcing. The interannual precipitation variability is tied to a tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) dipole for the FRS period before the SCSSM onset but not after. Such a difference is possibly due to the changes in the basic thermal-dynamical state of the atmosphere near the Maritime Continent and the tropical Northwestern Pacific and their different responses to the SST forcing before and after the SCSSM onset.

Climatological Madden-Julian Oscillation during boreal spring leads to abrupt Australian monsoon retreat and Asian monsoon onsets

Abrupt monsoon onsets/retreats are indispensable targets for climate prediction and future projection, but the origins of their abruptness remain elusive. This study establishes the existence of three climatological Madden-Julian Oscillation (CMJO) episodes contributing to the rapid Australian summer monsoon retreat in mid-March, the South China Sea (or East Asian) summer monsoon onset in mid-May, and the Indian summer monsoon onset in early June. The CMJO displays a dynamically coherent convection-circulation structure resembling its transitionary counterpart, demonstrating its robustness as a convectively coupled circulation system and the tendency of the transient MJOs’ phase-lock to the annual cycle. The CMJO is inactive during the boreal winter due to destructive year-to-year modulations of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. We hypothesize that the interaction between atmospheric internal variability (MJO) and the insolation-forced slow annual cycle generates the sudden monsoon withdrawal/onset during the boreal spring. Understanding the factors determining the timing and location of the MJO’s phase-locking and its variability is vital for monsoon forecasting and climate projection.

Interdecadal delay of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset after 2010

Interdecadal delay of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset after 2010

Prediction of South China Sea summer monsoon onset in the CAMS‐CSM climate forecast system

AbstractBased on a set of hindcast experiments from 2011 to 2020, the prediction skills of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science Climate System Model (CAMS‐CSM) climate forecast system (CFS) on the abrupt changes and characteristic processes associated with the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) establishment are evaluated. We studied predictions for three different lead times, that is, LT1‐30, LT31‐60 and LT61‐90. The CAMS‐CSM CFS captures the climatological SCSSM onset date at all lead times, while the prediction skill of the SCSSM onset index decreases with the increasing lead times. The features of abrupt changes and characteristic processes related to the SCSSM establishment can be generally reproduced in the predictions, but different biases exist at three lead times. Besides, the CAMS‐CSM CFS provides higher skill on the transition of the zonal wind shear (ZWS) than that of meridional temperature difference (MTG). The transition date of MTG can only be accurately predicted at LT1‐30, indicating the limited ability of predicting temperature. Further results confirm that the CFS cannot well capture the eastward withdrawal of the western North Pacific subtropical high on late onset years, thereby leading a poorer prediction skill than early onset years. In addition, skillful prediction on the eastward extension of westerlies from the equatorial Indian Ocean to SCS also contributes to increase predictability of SCSSM onset.

A statistical study on promoting effects of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal on the South China Sea summer monsoon onset

AbstractThe onset date of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM) and the generation time of the first tropical cyclone (TC) over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during late April and early June were significantly correlated with a correlation coefficient of 0.58 during 1979–2020. The composite analysis found that under the impact of BoB TCs, an enhanced southwesterly low‐level flow transported abundant moisture from the BoB to the northern SCS. Besides, the diabatic heating related to TC convection stimulated an anticyclonic anomaly in the upper troposphere over the southern Tibetan Plateau, which was conducive to the enhancement and expansion of the South Asian high (SAH) over the Indo‐China Peninsula. The stronger easterly outflows from the eastern periphery of the SAH overlapped with low‐level water vapor convergence over the northern SCS, enhancing the development of monsoon convection. Thus, more condensation heating warmed the tropospheric atmosphere and reversed the meridional temperature gradient over the SCS, implying the SCSSM onset.

10–30‐day moist static energy evolutions related to the persistent heavy rainfall event in different stages of flood season over South China

AbstractIn this study, the flood season in South China (SC) was divided into three stages: two first rainy seasons (FRSs) around the South China Sea summer monsoon onset and one second rainy season when Typhoon prevails, denoted as FRS1, FRS2, and SRS, respectively, and then we diagnosed the moist static energy (MSE) budget associated with the 10–30‐day persistent heavy rainfall (PHR) over SC during these periods. The results indicate that there are great differences in the recharge of PHR‐related MSE in different stages of the flood season in SC: The FRS1 MSE associated with PHR moves southeastward from midlatitude; the large MSE is maintained in SC during the FRS2; during the SRS, the MSE perturbation propagates from the tropical western North Pacific to SC. From the perspective of the local MSE budget in SC, meridional and zonal advection play a key role in the maximum MSE change in the FRS1; the FRS2 and SRS MSE tendency is mainly determined by zonal advection and meridional advection, respectively. In contrast, the 10–30‐day propagating perturbation of MSE changes during both the FRS1 and FRS2 are mainly affected by the zonal advection, while the meridional circulation is dominant in the SRS. The cumulative contribution of external forcing (including radiation and surface heat fluxes) during the SRS to the propagation of PHR‐related MSE perturbation can reach more than 30%, and the closer to the land, the stronger the external forcing. During the FRS (including FRS1 and FRS2), however, the external forcing contributes little, even negatively.

Influences of MJO-induced Tropical Cyclones on the Circulation-Convection Inconsistency for the 2021 South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

Influences of MJO-induced Tropical Cyclones on the Circulation-Convection Inconsistency for the 2021 South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

Response of sea surface heat fluxes to the South China Sea summer monsoon onset in 2021

By using the ship-based data collected over the South China Sea during the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) in 2021, the characteristics of near-surface meteorological conditions, surface heat budget, and atmospheric boundary layer structure are analyzed. We found that near-surface air temperature (relative humidity) decreased significantly during the developed monsoon period, while near-surface wind speed showed an obvious increase trend from the pre-monsoon period to the developed monsoon period. The significant reduction of solar radiation due to cloud cover led to the reverse of oceanic heat flux direction from downward to upward. The sea surface sensible and latent heat fluxes were restrained after the SCSSM onset. The atmospheric boundary layer height presented a positive (negative) correlation with near-surface air temperature (humidity). In addition, the vertical profiles of wind speed, virtual potential temperature, and air humidity revealed that: after monsoon onset, (i) the atmospheric circulation within the atmospheric boundary layer accelerated, with a strong low-level jet located below 500-m height; (ii) there was a strong inversion layer below 500-m height, especially at 1300 and 1900 local time (LT); (iii) the atmospheric humidity in low-level raised significantly.

Close Linkage of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset and Extreme Rainfall in May over Southeast Asia: Role of the Synoptic-Scale Systems

Abstract Based on multiple datasets and methods, this study reveals a close relation between the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset and the occurrence frequency of extreme rainfall over Southeast Asia (including the Indochina Peninsula, Hainan Island, and the Philippines) in May. Specifically, an early SCSSM onset tends to be accompanied by a higher chance of extreme rainfall over Southeast Asia, while a late SCSSM onset is likely to coincide with less heavy rainfall in May. It is suggested that the amplitude of tropical synoptic-scale systems may play an important role in the linkage between the SCSSM onset and the extreme rainfall over Southeast Asia. Accompanying an early SCSSM onset, anomalous cyclonic circulation appears over the SCS and Philippine Sea, which tends to increase the quantity of midtroposphere moisture via moisture advection and Ekman pumping. Besides, the barotropic energy conversion (from mean kinetic to eddy kinetic energy) associated with this anomalous cyclone will facilitate the development of the synoptic-scale systems. The vertical easterly wind shear accompanying an early SCSSM onset will confine the synoptic-scale wave train to the lower troposphere, which is also favorable for its growth. Once these synoptic-scale systems develop, the baroclinic process (from eddy available potential energy to eddy kinetic energy) will further promote their development. As such, the intensity of synoptic-scale systems is much stronger in early than late SCSSM onset years. The increased moisture and vigorous synoptic-scale systems further lead to an increase in the occurrence of extreme rainfall over Southeast Asia.

Sub-seasonal Prediction of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2

Sub-seasonal Prediction of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2

The Weakening Relationship between ENSO and the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset in Recent Decades

The Weakening Relationship between ENSO and the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset in Recent Decades

Relative Roles of Intraseasonal and Above-seasonal Components in the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

Relative Roles of Intraseasonal and Above-seasonal Components in the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

Response of Sea Surface Energy Fluxes To the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset in 2021

Response of Sea Surface Energy Fluxes To the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset in 2021

Subseasonal Predictability of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset With the ECMWF S2S Forecasting System

AbstractAccurate forecasting of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset is critical for water resource management in the rainy season across East Asia. The present work evaluates the skill of the ECMWF subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) forecasting system in predicting SCSSM onset dates using a hindcast experiment. The model provides accurate predictions of the SCSSM onset date 10 days in advance. The predictability mainly arises from the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the northern Indian Ocean and central‐eastern tropical Pacific, which usually coincides with moderate and extreme decaying El Niño, thus creating windows of opportunity for SCSSM onset forecasting. The model can reasonably reproduce the SCSSM‐related SSTA and its induced atmospheric teleconnections. However, when anomalous Ural blocking influences the mid‐high latitudes, the ECMWF model forecasts of the SCSSM onset are trapped in the synoptic timescale because of the limited ability of the model to consider blocking in forecasting.

Roles of synoptic‐scale waves and intraseasonal oscillations in the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon

AbstractThe maintenance period (20 days after the onset day) of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset is investigated in this paper, the main focus of which is the roles of synoptic‐scale (2–10‐day period) waves (SSWs) relative to those of 10–20‐day and 30–60‐day intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs). The results reveal that the eddy kinetic energy (EKE)‐based SSW intensity displays a greater amplitude and closer relationship with the SCSSM onset date (correlation coefficient: −0.50) than either ISO during the SCSSM onset maintenance period, indicating that frequent synoptic‐scale processes play an important role in the SCSSM onset. Regression analyses based on the original EKE‐based wave intensity further reveal that SSW‐related horizontal wind anomalies show significant cyclonic anomalies over the SCS, with westerlies occupying the central and southern SCS. Moreover, SSW‐induced low‐pressure systems, including negative outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies, low‐level convergence and weakening of the 500 hPa height field, are observed over the SCS and maintain the SCSSM onset. A three‐dimensional EKE diagnosis is conducted to investigate the relative contributions of SSWs and both ISOs. The results demonstrate that the SSW‐related horizontal barotropic EKE conversion and EKE conversion from eddy available potential energy cooperate to contribute more than the two ISOs to the dynamic processes during the maintenance stage of the SCSSM onset.

Impact of Pacific Decadal Oscillation on interannual relationship between El Niño and South China Sea summer monsoon onset

AbstractIn this study, we investigate impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the interannual relationship between the El Niño and South China Sea summer monsoon onset (SCSSMO) using observations and community atmosphere model (CAM) simulations. We find that the interannual relationship between El Niño and SCSSMO during 1948–2019 has significant decadal variation, namely, this variation is consistent with PDO phase change. Specifically, a high El Niño‐SCSSMO correlation appears during the positive PDO phase from the mid‐1970s to the mid‐1990s; in contrast, no significant correlation exists during the negative PDO phase from the mid‐1950s to the mid‐1970s and also from the 2000s to the 2010s. Further analyses suggest that the PDO‐related sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the western North Pacific (WNP), rather than in the North Pacific, modulate the El Niño‐SCSSMO relationship. The SSTAs in the WNP can prolong the existence of the anomalous WNP anticyclone (WNPAC) from the El Niño mature winter to the following May, and the corresponding western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is stronger and extends further westward, thus causing a late SCSSMO during the positive PDO phase. In contrast, the WNPAC disappears and the WPSH withdraws earlier in May during the negative PDO phase, inducing an early onset of the SCSSM. The observed PDO's impact on the interannual relationship between the El Niño and SCSSMO is confirmed by CAM simulations.

Impacts of the Wave Train along the Asian Jet on the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

The South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset signifies the commencement of large-scale summer monsoon over East Asia and the western North Pacific (WNP). Previous studies on the influencing factors of the SCSSM onset mainly focus on the tropical systems, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study reveals that the wave train along the Asian jet could act as an extratropical factor to modulate the SCSSM onset, and it is largely independent of ENSO. The SCSSM onset tends to be earlier during the positive phase of the wave train (featured by northerly anomalies over Central Iran plateau and eastern China, southerly anomalies over Arabian Peninsula, eastern Indian subcontinent, and eastern Bonin islands). The wave train affects the SCSSM onset mainly via modulating the WNP subtropical high. The wave train during the positive phase can induce negative geopotential height anomalies in the mid-troposphere and anomalous cyclones in the lower-troposphere over the SCS and the Philippine Sea, leading to the weakening of the WNP subtropical high. Specifically, the anomalous ascending motions associated with the low-level cyclone are favorable for the increased rainfall over the SCS, and the anomalous westerly on the south of the anomalous cyclone is conducive to the transition of the zonal wind (from easterly to westerly). The above circulation anomalies associated with the positive phase of the wave train provide a favorable environment for the advanced SCSSM onset.

Interdecadal Change in the Relationship Between the Bay of Bengal Summer Monsoon and South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

The interdecadal change of the BOBSM–SCSSM relationship around the late 1970s is investigated in this paper. We found that the correlation between the BOBSM and SCSSM is 0.22 in 1958–1979, while it is 0.66 in 1980–2018. Further analyses showed that the strength of the South Asian High (SAH) at upper troposphere circulation experiences an interdecadal enhancement around the late 1970s; meanwhile its meridional shift exhibits a wider range in the second subperiod. Both the interdecadal change of the strength and meridional shift of the SAH contribute to a closer relationship of the BOBSM and SCSSM through modulating the divergent field at upper troposphere. As for the external forcing, the basin warming of the Indian Ocean after the late 1970s may serve as a relatively primary factor, which could induce a consistent background flow that may favor a closer BOBSM–SCSSM relationship in the second period. It is noted that the Indian Ocean warming is related to high pressure anomaly widely lying to the south of 20°N at upper troposphere, accompanied by the low pressure anomaly center to the north of 20°N. And this kind of upper-level circulation may result in strong westerly anomaly at the domain where the pressure gradient is large and then modulate the onset of the BOBSM and SCSSM in 1980–2018 through changing the upper-level divergent field. Besides, the low troposphere circulation associated with Indian Ocean warming is featured by the zonal-elongated high pressure anomaly spanning from the BOB and SCS to the northwest Pacific. The above coupling of the upper and lower troposphere, as a larger-scale consistent background flow controls the BOB and SCS, can modulate the interannual variation of the BOBSM and SCSSM synchronously and contributes to the closer relationship of the BOBSM and SCSSM in the second subperiod.

Interdecadal Change of the Winter-Spring Tropospheric Temperature Over Asia and its Impact on the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

The interdecadal change of the winter-spring tropospheric temperature over Asia and its impact on the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset are investigated in this study. The SCSSM onset experiences a significant advance around the mid-1990s, which is attributed to the positive interdecadal anomaly of meridional temperature gradient in the mid-upper troposphere in May over the South China Sea monsoon region. This positive interdecadal anomaly can be traced back to the previous winter and spring, mainly associated with the mid-upper tropospheric warming in the East Asian subtropics. During the interdecadal anomalous seasonal evolution of the East Asian subtropical mid-upper tropospheric temperature, advection of the warm temperature anomaly by climatological mean wind overtakes the effects of anomalous adiabatic cooling and diabatic cooling, leading to a net interdecadal seasonal warming in winter. In spring, the adiabatic heating caused by the interdecadal anomalous subsidence flow cannot offset the effects of interdecadal anomalous cold advection and diabatic cooling, resulting in a net interdecadal seasonal cooling. However, the interdecadal seasonal cooling in spring is not strong enough to offset the interdecadal seasonal warming in winter, preserving an interdecadal mid-upper tropospheric warming over the subtropical East Asia in late spring. This interdecadal warming provides a favorable condition for the interdecadal advance of the SCSSM onset. Both observational analyses and numerical experiments suggest that the interdecadal change of atmospheric thermodynamic processes in winter−spring is related to the interdecadal warming in the tropical western Pacific. The enhanced convection and condensation heating over the regions from the South China Sea to the Philippines, forced by the tropical western Pacific warming, stimulates an anomalous anticyclone in the upper troposphere and warming in the whole troposphere over the subtropical East Asia.

Seasonal Forecast of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset Disturbed by Cold Tongue La Niña in the Past Decade

It has been suggested that a warm (cold) ENSO event in winter is mostly followed by a late (early) onset of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM) in spring. Our results show this positive relationship, which is mainly determined by their phase correlation, has been broken under recent rapid global warming since 2011, due to the disturbance of cold tongue (CT) La Nina events. Different from its canonical counterpart, a CT La Nina event is characterized by surface meridional wind divergences in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, which can delay the SCSSM onset by enhanced convections in the warming Indian Ocean and the western subtropical Pacific. Owing to the increased Indian-western Pacific warming and the prevalent CT La Nina events, empirical seasonal forecasting of SCSSM onset based on ENSO may be challenged in the future.