Chilean Subduction Zone Research Articles

Investigation of Co‐Seismic Ionospheric Perturbations Generated by Shallow Earthquakes in the Chile Subduction Zone

AbstractThe Chile subduction zone is known to host megathrust earthquakes. This study investigates the near‐field co‐seismic ionospheric perturbations (CIP) associated with recent large to great, shallow depth (22–25 km) earthquakes that occurred in the Chile subduction zone. These earthquakes are (a) 16 September 2015, Mw 8.3 (EQ1) (b) 03 April 2014, Mw 7.7 (EQ2) (c) 01 April 2014, Mw 8.2 (EQ3) (d) 02 January 2011, Mw 7.1 (EQ4), and (e) 27 February 2010, Mw 8.8 (EQ5). Using the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measured total electron content (TEC), we found that despite the lower magnitude of EQ3 than EQ1 and EQ5, the CIP observed during EQ3 had higher amplitudes than that of EQ5 and EQ1. The amplitude of CIP also depends on non‐seismic parameters in addition to the concerning earthquake magnitude. The comparison of relative CIP amplitudes, in light of the non‐seismic parameters of the geomagnetic field and satellite geometry indicates that background electron density (due to different local times of earthquake occurrence) might contributed to CIP amplitudes. We believe that this thorough analysis leads to a better understanding of non‐seismic factors that can largely influence the CIP amplitudes apart from the earthquake magnitudes.

Along-strike forearc and subducted upper slab structure beneath north Chile: Slow slip implications

We evaluate the lateral variation of the lithospheric structure beneath the forearc of the North Chile subduction zone along strike, extending from Iquique to Valparaiso, to understand a possible seismic structure that hosts deep slow earthquakes by comparing the deep slow slip areas around 60 km depth, using receiver function and inversion method. Relative differences are investigated in seismic velocities around the plate interface, especially underlying the mantle wedge, the upper part of the subducted oceanic crust, and the oceanic mantle along the subduction strike. We estimate and compare the thickness and velocity of subducted oceanic crust, slab top, subducted oceanic Moho, continental Moho, and wedge mantle velocity beneath the seismic stations. The oceanic crustal thickness range from ∼5 to 10 km respectively, and the oceanic Moho depth is ∼40 km–∼90 km. It was observed that the disparities in velocities were more pronounced near the south of the Iquique zone (18°S-25°S), with high subducting oceanic crust velocities. These discrepancies in velocities could be regarded as the presence of fluids from subducted ridges and seamounts, which might alter seismicity in the area, including slow slip.

Detection of slow slip events along the southern Peru - northern Chile subduction zone

Detections of slow slip events (SSEs) are now common along most plate boundary fault systems at the global scale. However, no such event has been described in the south Peru - north Chile subduction zone so far, except for the early preparatory phase of the 2014 Iquique earthquake. We use geodetic template matching on GNSS-derived time series of surface motion in Northern Chile to extract SSEs hidden within the geodetic noise. We detect 33 events with durations ranging from 9 to 40 days and magnitudes from Mw 5.6 to 6.2. The moment released by these aseismic events seems to scale with the cube of their duration, suggesting a dynamic comparable to that of earthquakes. We compare the distribution of SSEs with the distribution of coupling along the megathrust derived using Bayesian inference on GNSS- and InSAR-derived interseismic velocities. From this comparison, we obtain that most SSEs occur in regions of intermediate coupling where the megathrust transitions from locked to creeping or where geometrical complexities of the interplate region have been proposed. We finally discuss the potential role of fluids as a triggering mechanism for SSEs in the area.

Non‐Linear Vertical Land Motion of Coastal Chile and the Antarctic Peninsula Inferred From Combining Satellite Altimetry, Tide Gauge and GPS Data

AbstractWe developed an enhanced Kalman‐based approach to quantify abrupt changes and significant non‐linearity in vertical land motion (VLM) along the coast of Chile and the Antarctic Peninsula using a combination of multi‐mission satellite altimetry (ALT), tide gauge (TG), and GPS data starting from the early 1990s. The data reveal the spatial variability of co‐seismic and post‐seismic subsidence at TGs along the Chilean subduction zone in response to the Mw8.8 Maule 2010, Mw8.1 Iquique 2014, and Mw8.3 Illapel 2015 earthquakes that are not retrievable from the interpolation of sparse GPS observations across space and time. In the Antarctic Peninsula, where continuous GPS data do not commence until ∼1998, the approach provides new insight into the ∼2002 change in VLM at the TGs of +5.3 ± 2.2 mm/yr (Palmer) and +3.5 ± 2.8 mm/yr (Vernadsky) due to the onset of ice‐mass loss following the Larsen‐B Ice Shelf breakup. We used these data to constrain viscoelastic Earth model parameters for the northern Antarctic Peninsula, obtaining a preferred lithosphere thickness of 115 km and upper mantle viscosity of 0.9 × 1018 Pa s. Our estimates of regionally‐correlated ALT systematic errors are small, typically between ∼±0.5–2.5 mm/yr over single‐mission time scales. These are consistent with competing orbit differences and the relative errors apparent in ALT crossovers. This study demonstrates that, with careful tuning, the ALT‐TG technique can provide improved temporal and spatial sampling of VLM, yielding new constraints on geodynamic models and assisting sea‐level change studies in otherwise data sparse regions and periods.

Different earthquake nucleation conditions revealed by stress drop and b-value mapping in the northern Chilean subduction zone

Stress drop is an earthquake property indicative for the characteristic relation of slip to fault dimension. It is furthermore affected by fault strength, fault topography, the presence of fluids, rupture size, slip, and velocity. In this article, the stress drop image of an entire subduction zone, namely for the seismically highly active northernmost part of Chile, is combined with mapped b-values and their corresponding magnitude distribution in order to better constrain the conditions under which earthquakes of different provenances may nucleate. The underlying recent earthquake catalog contains over 180,000 events, covering 15 years of seismicity, from which more than 50,000 stress drop estimates were computed. Their spatial average segments the subduction zone into different parts, i.e., average stress drop between seismotectonic areas is different, although this difference is small compared to the natural scatter of stress drop values. By considering stress drop variations, b-value map, magnitude distribution, and thermal models, candidate earthquake nucleation mechanisms are identified which can explain the observed distributions. This is done for two exemplary regions: (1) The plate interface, where principally lower stress drop events are found, while at the same time a high spatial heterogeneity of stress drop values is observed. This indicates relatively smooth or lubricated rupture surfaces, and locally it suggests the existence of alternating regions controlled by strong asperities, weaker material, or creep. (2) The highly active intermediate depth (ID) seismicity region, where the variation of stress drop and b-value point to a gradual change of nucleation mechanism from dehydration embrittlement at the top of the ID cloud, over dehydration driven stress transfer in its central part, to thermal runaway shear mechanisms at its bottom. In both cases, the combination of stress drop and b-value distribution helps to better understand the origin and the differences of the observed seismicity.

Diatoms in earthquake and tsunami reconstruction along the Chilean subduction zone: valuable proxies of a paleoseismologist’s toolkit

Diatoms in earthquake and tsunami reconstruction along the Chilean subduction zone: valuable proxies of a paleoseismologist’s toolkit

Past large earthquakes influence future strong ground motion: Example of the Chilean subduction zone

Past large earthquakes influence future strong ground motion: Example of the Chilean subduction zone

Influence of the Plan Structural Symmetry on the Non-Linear Seismic Response of Framed Reinforced Concrete Buildings

Seismic-resistant design incorporates measures to ensure that structures perform adequately under specific limit states, focusing on seismic forces derived from both the equivalent static and spectral modal methods. This study examined buildings on slopes in densely built urban areas, a common scenario in Latin American cities with high seismic risks. The adjustment of high-rise buildings to sloping terrains induces structural asymmetry, leading to plan and elevation irregularities that significantly impact their seismic response. This paper explores the asymmetry in medium-height reinforced concrete frame buildings on variable inclines (0°, 15°, 30°, and 45°) and its effect on their nonlinear response, assessed via displacements, rotations, and damage. Synthetic accelerograms matched with Chile’s high seismic hazard design spectrum, scaled for different performance states and seismic records from the Chilean subduction zone, were applied. The findings highlight structural asymmetry’s role in influencing nonlinear response parameters such as ductility, transient interstory drifts, and roof rotations, and uncover element demand distributions surpassing conventional analysis and in earthquake-resistant design expectations.

Seismic cycle controlled by subduction geometry: novel 3-D quasi-dynamic model of Central Chile megathrust

SUMMARY Subduction earthquakes show complex spatial and temporal rupture patterns, exhibiting events of varied sizes, which rupture distinct or overlapping fault segments. Elucidating first-order controlling conditions of rupture segmentation and return periods of large earthquakes is therefore critical for seismic and tsunami hazard estimations. The Chilean subduction zone frequently hosts several Mw > 8 earthquakes, with heterogeneous recurrence rates and locations. Here, we implement 3-D quasi-dynamic rate and state frictional models to investigate the role of plate interface geometry on the distribution of interseismic coupling and coseismic ruptures in Central Chile. First, we develop synthetic-parametric models that show how dip and strike variations may increase the probabilities to produce partial seismic barriers, which tend to avoid the production of large earthquake ruptures and modulate rupture lengths. Then, we simulate the subduction seismic cycle processes on Central Chile (25°S–38°S), imposing depth-dependent frictional properties on a realistic non-planar 3-D subduction interface geometry. Similar to results obtained for synthetic-parametric models, after 5000 yr of simulation, regions with abrupt dip or strike changes increase the probabilities of stopping coseismic propagation of simulated Mw 8.0–9.0 earthquakes. Our simulated earthquake sequences on the Central Chile subduction zone delimit rupture areas that match geometrical interface features and historical earthquakes, results that point to the crucial role of fault interface geometry on seismic cycle segmentation along strike.

Erratum to Complex Crustal Deformation Controlled by the 3D Geometry of the Chile Subduction Zone

<i>Erratum to</i> Complex Crustal Deformation Controlled by the 3D Geometry of the Chile Subduction Zone

A Comprehensive Stress Drop Map From Trench to Depth in the Northern Chilean Subduction Zone

AbstractWe compute stress drops for earthquakes in Northern Chile recorded between 2007 and 2021. By applying two analysis techniques, (a) the spectral ratio (SR) method and (b) the spectral decomposition (SDC) method, a stress drop map for the subduction zone consisting of 51,510 stress drop values is produced. We build an extended set of empirical Green’s functions (EGF) for the SR method by systematic template matching. Outputs are used to compare with results from the SDC approach, where we apply cell‐wise obtained global EGF's to compensate for the structural heterogeneity of the subduction zone. We find a good consistency of results of the two methods. The increased spatial coverage and quantity of stress drop estimates from the SDC method facilitate a consistent stress drop mapping of the different seismotectonic domains. Albeit only small differences of median stress drop, strike‐perpendicular depth sections clearly reveal systematic variations, with earthquakes at different seismotectonic locations exhibiting distinct values. In particular, interface seismicity is characterized by the lowest observed median value, whereas upper plate earthquakes show noticeably higher stress drop values. Intermediate depth earthquakes show comparatively high average stress drop and a rather strong depth‐dependent increase of median stress drop. Additionally, we observe spatio‐temporal variability of stress drops related to the occurrence of the two megathrust earthquakes in the study region. The presented study is the first coherent large scale 3D stress drop mapping of the Northern Chilean subduction zone. It provides an important component for further detailed analysis of the physics of earthquake ruptures.

Real‐Time Fault Tracking and Ground Motion Prediction for Large Earthquakes With HR‐GNSS and Deep Learning

AbstractEarthquake early warning (EEW) systems aim to forecast the shaking intensity rapidly after an earthquake occurs and send warnings to affected areas before the onset of strong shaking. The system relies on rapid and accurate estimation of earthquake source parameters. However, it is known that source estimation for large ruptures in real‐time is challenging, and it often leads to magnitude underestimation. In a previous study, we showed that machine learning, HR‐GNSS, and realistic rupture synthetics can be used to reliably predict earthquake magnitude. This model, called Machine‐Learning Assessed Rapid Geodetic Earthquake model (M‐LARGE), can rapidly forecast large earthquake magnitudes with an accuracy of 99%. Here, we expand M‐LARGE to predict centroid location and fault size, enabling the construction of the fault rupture extent for forecasting shaking intensity using existing ground motion models. We test our model in the Chilean Subduction Zone with thousands of simulated and five real large earthquakes. The result achieves an average warning time of 40.5 s for shaking intensity MMI4+, surpassing the 34 s obtained by a similar GNSS EEW model. Our approach addresses a critical gap in existing EEW systems for large earthquakes by demonstrating real‐time fault tracking feasibility without saturation issues. This capability leads to timely and accurate ground motion forecasts and can support other methods, enhancing the overall effectiveness of EEW systems. Additionally, the ability to predict source parameters for real Chilean earthquakes implies that synthetic data, governed by our understanding of earthquake scaling, is consistent with the actual rupture processes.

Double distance dependence in high-frequency ground motion along the plate boundary in Northern Chile

In subduction zones, the forearc crust transitions from a highly fractured wedge near the trench to a less fractured basement near the volcanic arc. Here we study the role of wedge integrity on the frequency content of strong ground motion produced by subduction earthquakes in Northern Chile. Our data includes aftershocks from the 2014 Mw 8.1 Iquique earthquake and intermediate-depth seismicity, including the 2005 Mw 7.6 Tarapacá earthquake. We focus on the S-wave spectral decay parameter κ obtained from strong ground motion in the frequency band 2−40Hz, paying particular attention to how κ varies with hypocentral distance. We report two distinct trends of κ versus hypocentral distance. One trend applies to events near the trench, where we observe a rapid increase of κ with hypocentral distance. Another trend applies to events near the bottom of the megathrust and greater depths, where we observe a relatively slow increase of κ with hypocentral distance. We interpret this difference as resulting from a heterogeneous tectonic structure with lateral variations in anelastic attenuation (i.e., attenuation seems stronger in the fractured wedge near the trench). Our results improve our understanding of the role of high-frequency ground motion in seismic hazard analysis near the Chilean coastline. In addition, our results stress the need for a better characterization of anelastic attenuation in the Chilean subduction zone, specially close to the highly fractured wedge near the trench.

Complex Crustal Deformation Controlled by the 3D Geometry of the Chile Subduction Zone

ABSTRACT The Chilean subduction zone hosts Mw&amp;gt;8 earthquakes, which could trigger earthquakes on crustal faults located along the plate margin. Using synthetic earthquakes from a quasi-dynamic boundary element method model, we obtain traction fields and perform a slip tendency analysis to obtain synthetic faults, which we compare with existing potentially seismogenic crustal faults. With our results, we find geometric patterns of the highest slip tendency planes with deformations induced by synthetic subduction events, such that north of the rupture area of each event, correlate with normal N20°W–50°W/N60°SW fault planes, and to the south, correlate with normal N30°E–80°E/N60°NW faults planes. These observations agree with observed fault traces in central and northern Chile, and past observations of crustal fault reactivation.

Earthquake swarms along the Chilean subduction zone, 2003–2020

SUMMARY We search for earthquake swarms along the Chilean subduction, from −18° to −39° of latitude, 2003–2020 by developing an objective, model-based method that detects potential swarms as anomalous changes in earthquake rate. A set of 16 swarms is obtained after careful inspection of the candidate swarms; this assessment allows to reject cases for which model errors, rather than ‘true’ anomalous rate changes, are likely the cause of the detection. Averaging the activity over these 16 episodes, we find indirect evidence for a mostly aseismic driving mechanism, and a mean aseismic to seismic ratio estimated to range between 40 and 90 when using the seismicity rate as a proxy for slip. All the swarms are found in the 20–50 km depth range with the notable exception of one 60–100-km-deep swarm that occurs several days after the 2010 Maule earthquake and downdip of it. The dominant depth range (20–50 km) is in agreement with previous studies that suggest this range to be a transition zone from the shallower, locked part of the subduction, to the freely slipping interface at greater depth and intraslab earthquake activity. The swarms can be separated into three spatial groups, two of which being related to a subducting oceanic ridge. This structural control by fluid-rich geological features is modulated by stress control, that is swarms cluster in time with intermediate to large ruptures, both prior and following them, pointing to a close interplay between seismic slip and aseismic deformation in specific, well separated segments of the Chilean subduction.

Revisiting the 2015Mw = 8.3 Illapel earthquake: unveiling complex fault slip properties using Bayesian inversion

SUMMARYThe 2015 moment magnitude Mw = 8.3 Illapel earthquake is the largest mega-thrust earthquake that has been recorded along the Chilean subduction zone since the 2010 Mw = 8.8 Maule earthquake. Previous studies indicate a rupture propagation from the hypocentre to shallower parts of the fault, with a maximum slip varying from 10 to 16 m. The amount of shallow slip differs dramatically between rupture models with some results showing almost no slip at the trench and other models with significant slip at shallow depth. In this work, we revisit this event by combining a comprehensive data set including continuous and survey GNSS data corrected for post-seismic and aftershock signals, ascending and descending InSAR images of the Sentinel-1A satellite, tsunami data along with high-rate GPS, and doubly integrated strong-motion waveforms. We follow a Bayesian approach, in which the solution is an ensemble of models. The kinematic inversion is done using the cascading capability of the AlTar algorithm, allowing us to first get a static solution before integrating seismic data in a joint model. In addition, we explore a new approach to account for forward problem uncertainties using a second-order perturbation approach. Results show a rupture with two main slip patches, with significant slip at shallow depth. During the rupture propagation, we observe two regions that are encircled by the rupture, with no significant slip, westward of the hypocentre. These encircling effects have been previously suggested by back-projection results but have not been observed in finite-fault slip models. We propose that the encircled regions correspond to zones where the yield stress largely exceeds the initial stress or where fracture energy is too large to be ruptured during the Illapel earthquake. These asperities may potentially break in the future and probably already broke in the past.

Rapid Source Characterization of the Maule Earthquake Using Prompt Elasto‐Gravity Signals

AbstractThe recently identified Prompt Elasto‐Gravity Signals (PEGS), generated by large earthquakes, propagate at the speed of light and are sensitive to the earthquake magnitude and focal mechanism. These characteristics make PEGS potentially very advantageous for tsunami early warning, which relies on fast and accurate estimation of the magnitude of large offshore earthquakes. PEGS‐based early warning does not suffer from the problem of magnitude estimation saturation, that P‐wave based early warning algorithms have, and could be faster than Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS)‐based systems while not requiring a priori assumptions on slip distribution. We use a deep learning model called PEGSNet to evaluate the possibility to estimate in real time the evolution of the magnitude of big earthquakes in the tsunamigenic zone of Chile. The model is a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) trained on a database of synthetic PEGS—simulated for an exhaustive set of possible earthquakes distributed along the Chilean subduction zone—augmented with empirical noise. The approach is multi‐station and leverages the information recorded by the seismic network to estimate as fast as possible the magnitude and location of an ongoing earthquake. Our results indicate that PEGSNet could have estimated that the magnitude of the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake was above 8.7, 90 s after origin time. Our offline simulations using real data and noise recordings further support the instantaneous tracking of the source time function of the earthquake and show that deploying seismic stations in optimal locations could improve the performance of the algorithm.

Imaging the source region of recent megathrust earthquakes along the Chile subduction zone: A summary of results from recent experiments

In addition to the largest documented earthquake, the Mw 9.5 Valdivia earthquake of 1960, the Chilean subduction zone has experienced three great (>Mw 8) earthquakes since 2010 for which detailed models of deformation prior to, during and after the earthquake are available. The 1960 and 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake affected the south-central Chilean margin, where the trench is sediment filled, whereas the 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique and 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel earthquakes occurred farther north where there is little sediment in the trench. We summarize recent results from three marine seismological projects designed to elucidate the impact that geologic structure may have had on slip during these events. Because analysis of these datasets is ongoing, this report should be considered as an interim summary rather than a comprehensive synthesis. None-the-less, some patterns can be discerned. That we can resolve 5 m of margin uplift by differencing swath bathymetric data highlights the value of obtaining ground truth marine geophysical data from potential seismic gaps. Controlled source seismic imaging indicates that subduction of nearly all incoming sediment in the sediment-filled section of the trench is a widespread characteristic of the subduction zone segment that ruptured in the two largest events and is likely a generalizable characteristic that can be used to anticipate whether a subduction zone is likely to rupture in great tsunamigenic earthquakes. While this is not a new idea, our data provide additional insights into plate boundary evolution at depth in this scenario. We also find that subduction of anomalously rough basement topography ∼2 million years ago may have led to indentation, large scale internal deformation, and erosion of the overlying wedge north of the 2010 rupture zone and that the process of wedge recovery may have resulted in an abrupt offset along strike of the plate boundary that served as a barrier to slip propagation in 2010. In general, structures generating wedge disruption may no longer be detectable following their subduction deep beneath the forearc wedge, but their passage can be inferred from residual structures mapped within the wedge, and their impact on slip during large earthquakes may be long lasting. We anticipate that further analysis of the data from these experiments, and from future experiments that build on these results, will further elucidate the relationship between geologic structure and slip such that images of subsurface structure become an additional tool in the toolbox of observations used to evaluate future hazard.

Impact of the Iquique Ridge on structure and deformation of the north Chilean subduction zone

The subduction of seamounts and basement ridges affects the structure, morphology, and physical state of a convergent margin. To evaluate their impact on the seismo-tectonic setting of the subduction zone and the tectonic development of the lower subducting and upper overriding plate, it is essential to know the precise location of subducted topographic features under the marine forearc. Offshore Northern Chile, the Iquique Ridge represents a broad zone of complex and heterogeneous structure of variable width on the oceanic Nazca Plate, which complicates attempts to project it beneath the forearc of the Chilean subduction zone. Here we use a state-of-the-art seismic reflection data processing approach to map structures related to ridge subduction under the marine forearc with unprecedented accuracy and resolution and evaluate their impact on the deformation of both the plate boundary and the upper plate. We show that significant ridge-related topography is currently subducting south of 20.5 °S and that the combined effect of horst and graben subduction with subduction of Iquique ridge-related thickened and elevated crust causes an upward bulging of the entire upper plate from the plate interface up to the seafloor as well as the presence of kilometer-scale anticlinal structures observed in multibeam bathymetric data that are approximately aligned with horsts seaward of the trench. In the area affected by the subducting ridge, a frontal prism is absent, which may relate to frontal subduction erosion caused by the excess lower plate topography. In contrast farther towards the north, where only isolated seamounts subduct, a small frontal prism and a slope/apron sediment cover down to 3000 m water depth are found.

Seismic and aseismic slip during the 2006 Copiapó swarm in North-Central Chile

Earthquake swarms commonly occur along the Chilean subduction zone, witnessing fast seismic and slow aseismic slip behavior at the plate interface. However, the largest seismic swarms observed in Chile, particularly in the Copiapó-Atacama region, remain poorly documented, and the underlying processes have yet to be understood. Here, we perform seismological and geodetic analyses to investigate the 2006 Copiapó swarm, which developed in April and May 2006. The swarm began on April 19, with a magnitude Ml 5.3 earthquake. During the nine following days, we observe a migration of seismicity along the plate interface, the occurrence of doublets events, and a potential slow slip event in the GPS time series at site Copiapó. Then, on April 30, a first earthquake with Mw 6.6 occurred at 15 km depth at the plate contact. It likely triggered a second earthquake of magnitude Mw 6.5, which occurred 144 min later, 10 km northwest of the first earthquake. Using InSAR, we determined the slip distribution associated with these two earthquakes and detailed the postseismic slip they triggered in the next days and weeks. This “postseismic” phase appears to be predominantly aseismic, while the moment released during the “coseismic” phase is comparable to other seismic crises that occurred in Atacama. Although we did not find a larger seismic and aseismic ratio than in other swarms in South America, we suggest a similar mechanism of slow deformation as a driver of seismicity during seismic swarms. Finally, we propose that the slow and fast behavior of the 2006 Copiapó swarm is a consequence of the subduction of the Copiapó Ridge seamounts, which affects both the plate interface and the overriding plate by inducing complex interactions between seismic and aseismic processes.