This study aimed to assess the effects of ripening at refrigeration and ambient temperatures on physic-chemical and microbiological parameters of artisanal Minas cheeses (made from raw milk) and to model the kinetics of lactic acid bacteria – LAB, Escherichia coli – Ec, and coagulase-positive staphylococci – Sa along the ripening. Cheese pH, acidity, and moisture, fat, and protein contents were quantified, as well as LAB, Ec, and Sa concentrations. Richards and simplified Lotka-Volterra models were used to describe the microbial kinetic data. The fits were assessed by statistical indices, and the Monte-Carlo method was applied to identifiability analysis. Cheese moisture was reduced along the ripening, increasing protein concentration and acidity values. Cheese pH showed a reduction followed by an increase. LAB concentration increased to the stationary phase after a few days; Ec and Sa concentrations increased and then decreased due to interactions with LAB and low moisture content. Mathematical models successfully described the kinetics of LAB, Ec, and Sa in cheese throughout ripening. Most parameters were not correlated to each other and were estimated with narrow confidence intervals.
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