Charlson’s Comorbidity Index Research Articles

Predictors of mortality for blunt trauma patients in intensive care: A retrospective cohort study

Background: Major trauma places substantial demand on critical care services, is a leading cause of death in under 40-year-olds and causes significant morbidity and mortality across all age groups. Various factors influence patient outcome and predefining these could allow prognostication. The aim of this study was to identify predictors of mortality from major trauma in intensive care. Methods: This was a retrospective study of adult trauma patients admitted to general intensive care between January 2018 and December 2019. We assessed the impact on mortality of patient demographics, patterns of injury, injury scores (Glasgow Coma Score (GCS), Charlson’s comorbidity index (CCI), Acute Physiology and Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Injury Severity Score (ISS) and Probability of Survival Score (Ps19)), number of surgeries and mechanism of injury using logistic regression. Results: A total of 414 patients were included with a median age of 54 years (IQR 34–72). Overall mortality was 18.6%. The most common mechanism of injury was traffic collision (46%). Non-survivors were older, had higher ISS scores with lower GCS on admission and probability of survival scores. Factors independently predictive of mortality were increasing age (OR 1.06, p <0.001) and GCS <15 on admission (OR 7.21, p <0.001). Ps19 was the best predictor of mortality (p <0.001 for each score category), with an AUROC of 0.90. Conclusions: The significant mortality predictors were age, fall from <2 metres, injury of head or limbs, GCS <15 and Ps19. Contrary to previous studies CCI and APACHE II did not significantly predict mortality. Although Ps19 was found to be the best current prognostic score, trauma prognostication would benefit from a single validated scoring system incorporating both physiological variables and injury patterns.

Development and Evaluation of a Novel Population Needs-Based Sub-Segmentation Model (NBSSM) in Singapore

Background: Population segmentation models are often used to stratify people into groups for care or services planning purposes. These are typically disease-specific or utilisation-based, and target high-risk patient groups. Singapore’s National Health Group (NHG) has developed a River of Life (RoL) segmentation approach stratifying its population into five segments, namely, Living Well, Living with Illness, Crisis and Complex Care, Living with Frailty and Leaving Well. Building on this approach, Yishun Health (YH), a Regional Population Health System under NHG caring for more than 300,000 residents in Northern Singapore, developed the Needs-Based Sub-Segmentation Model (NBSSM) to further stratify Yishun Zone residents who are living with illness and frailty using additional biological, psychological and social criteria. We evaluated the NBSSM’s ability to stratify residents into distinct risk-groups based on a set of person-centred outcomes.
 Methods: Yishun Zone residents with chronic illness and/or frailty were first identified to generate ‘Living with Illness’ and ‘Living with Frailty’ groups. These residents were further segmented into 10 sub-segments representing different needs and complexity levels, based on biological complexity i.e. number and severity of chronic diseases, as well as presence or absence of psychosocial criteria i.e. presence of mental illness and social issues.
 To evaluate the NBSSM, we studied its ability to stratify residents into distinct risk-groups using Charlson’s Comorbidity Index (CCI) scores as well as person-centred outcomes such as healthcare utilisation, and healthcare cost. Statistical distinction between NBSSM segments based on the above outcomes was also tested. Data from a Population Health Survey being conducted by YH, which included health behaviours and more detailed mental and social needs data, will next be integrated into the NBSSM to forecast the needs under each sub-segments to enable services planning for segment-specific interventions. 
 Results: All 314,522 Yishun Zone residents were included for RoL segmentation, of which 53,653 residents known to YH were further sub-segmented by the NBSSM according to their biopsychosocial needs. CCI, healthcare utilisation (i.e. number of Emergency Department visits, Specialised Outpatient Clinic visits, admissions and annual bed-days), and annual total healthcare cost were found to be statistically different across the NBSSM segments (p<0.05). Residents with presence of mental health and social issues had significantly higher risk of healthcare utilization and cost.
 
 Discussion & Conclusion: Using only data that was readily available data in our electronic medical record system, the NBSSM was able to augment NHG RoL segmentation and effectively sub-segment the Yishun Zone resident population into mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive groups with similar magnitude of risk of health needs and outcomes. 
 NBSSM enables development of more targeted and aligned clinical governance and leadership of segment-specific interventions through clearer assignment of segment-specific accountability for population outcomes. Integrating comprehensive needs assessment data from the YH Population Health Survey will enable more coherent health system and services planning. 
 In conclusion, needs-based segmentation models are more person-centred than disease-specified or utilization-only segmentation models. NBSSM enhances our health system’s system transformation and service planning capabilities to direct targeted interventions to meet needs and improve population health outcomes.

SIE/Sies/GITMO Criteria in Elderly Patients with Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML): Useful Also in the New Drug Era? a Multicentric Real-Life Study By the Hematological Network Rete Ematologica Lombarda (REL)

Introduction: In elderly acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients (pts) the debate about the use of intensive chemotherapy (iC) as opposed to non-intensive therapy (niT) or best supportive care (BSC) is a hot topic, particularly after the introduction of venetoclax (VEN) use. Age, comorbidities, functional impairment, therapy benefits and risks, pts preferences, and AML features influence this choice. The SIE/SIES/GITMO (“fitness”) criteria (Ferrara, 2013) are a valuable and comprehensive tool, but a revalidation is needed in the light of the new treatment options. Methods: Within the Rete Ematologica Lombarda (REL), we evaluated 1) the concordance between “fitness” of pts, and the type of treatment they actually received, 2) the overall survival (OS) according to the “fitness”, to the prognostic European Leukemianet (ELN17) stratification and to the treatment received, and 3) the presence of other parameters, as Charlsons Comorbidity Index (CCI), potentially useful in therapy decision. Pts were classified as fit to iC (FIT), unfit to iC (UNFIT), or unfit even to niT (FRAIL), as defined by the SIE/SIES/GITMO criteria. Results: From Jan 20 to Dec 22, 503 AML pts (53% de-novo), with a median age of 76 years (y) (range, 65-93) were diagnosed consecutively at 11 Hematology Units. According to “fitness” criteria, 25% of pts were FIT, 61% UNFIT, and 14% FRAIL (Table1). Median age was significantly lower in FIT pts (70 y), as compared to UNFIT (78 y) and FRAIL (79 y) (p <0.0001). Overall, the concordance between “fitness criteria” and the treatment actually received by pts was 75.9% (71% in FIT, 76% in UNFIT and 84% in FRAIL). After a median follow-up of 12 months (m), median OS of the whole population was 7.4 m. Median OS of FIT, UNFIT and FRAIL pts was 13.7, 7.2 and 1.4m, respectively (p <0.0001, Fig 1a). According to physicians' decision, 18% of pts received iC, 55% niT, mainly hypomethylating agents (HMA: azacytidine or decitabine) + VEN, and 27% BSC. Median OS was 17m, 10.2m, 1.4m in iC, niT and BSC pts, respectively (p<0.0001, Fig 1b). According to ELN17, evaluable in 73% of pts, 19% were favorable (fav), 20% intermediate (int) and 61% adverse (adv), without differences into “fitness” groups. Median OS was significantly worse in ELN adv than in ELN fav and int (p: 0.001 and p: 0.002, respectively, Fig 1c). In FIT pts, median OS was 17m with iC and 11.4m with niT (VEN-HMA) (p: 0.3). The use of iC was associated with younger age (median age: 69 in iC vs 73 y in niT, p<0.0001), lower CCI (CCI< 2: 88.5% in iC vs 64% in niT, p: 0.0032) and not significantly with better ELN risk (ELN adv 49% in iC pts vs 70% in niT, p: 0.07). The use of iC or niT did not affect remission rate (64% vs 71%) nor OS in different ELN risk groups. In UNFIT pts, median OS was 14m with niT and 3.8m with BSC pts (p<0.0001). The use of niT compared to BSC was associated with younger age (median 77 vs 81 y; p<0.0001), not adv ELN risk (41% vs 7%, p: 0.0001), lower ECOG performance status (PS) and CCI (PS<2: 81% vs 65%, p: 0.0001; CCI<2: 66% vs 50%, p: 0.038). In UNFIT pts treated with VEN-HMA median OS was 11m vs 7.3m with HMA only (p: 0.019). The use of VEN-HMA rather than HMA only was associated with younger age (median: 76 vs 80 y; p: 0.0045), better PS and CCI (PS<2: 94% vs 84%, p: 0.026; CCI<2: 68% vs 50%, p: 0.008). ELN risk distribution was similar. In non-adv risk pts, OS was 17m with VEN-HMA, significantly better compared to HMA only (7m) (p: 0.03) as well as to adv risk pts treated with VEN-HMA (p: 0.0017). Age >82y, number of comorbidities, lack of caregiver were the most frequent reasons for the physician's preference for HMA therapy over VEN-HMA. InFRAIL pts, median OS was 2.9 m with niT and 1.1m with BSC pts (p: 0.04). The use of niT was associated with a relatively better PS and younger age (<73 y). At multivariable analysis, ELN fav and iC favorably affected survival, whereas a FRAIL fitness status, PS>2, and CCI>2 proved to be independent adverse prognostic factors. Conclusion: Fitness stratification of SIE/SIES/GITMO correlated to pts's survival and were useful in the decision-making approach of treatment also in the new drugs era. Within the “fitness” categories, age, CCI and particularly ELN risk, had an impact on the choice of the type of induction therapy, in FIT pts (iC vs niT) without changing the outcome, while in UNFIT pts an under-treatment worsened OS. These preliminary data should be implemented with a longer follow-up and a larger sample size.

Outcomes of elderly peritoneal dialysis patients: 65–74 years old versus ≥ 75 years old

Objective To analyze the clinical data of elderly patients with peritoneal dialysis (PD) and compare patient and technique survival rates between Group 1 (65–74 years old) and Group 2 (≥75 years old). Methods This retrospective study enrolled 296 elderly patients (≥65 years old) on maintenance PD who were admitted to the Peritoneal Dialysis Center of the Second Hospital of Soochow University. The patients were categorized by outcome into ongoing PD, changed to hemodialysis, renal recovery dialysis stopped, or death groups. The patients were divided into Group 1 (65–74 years old) and Group 2 (≥75 years old). Patient survival and technique survival rates were calculated by the Kaplan–Meier method. Factors associated with patient survival were analyzed using the Cox regression model. Results There were 176 (59.5%) subjects in Group 1 and 120 (40.5%) subjects in Group 2. The primary causes of death were cardiovascular events, peritonitis, and other infections. The patient survival rates at 1, 3, and 5 years were 91.2%, 68.0%, and 51.3% in Group 1 and 76.8%, 37.5%, and 17.6% in Group 2 (p < 0.001, HR 0.387, 95% CI 0.282–0.530). There was no statistically significant difference in the technique survival rate between the two groups (p = 0.54). Conclusion The elderly PD patients in this cohort mostly died from cardiovascular events, with a higher patient survival rate in Group 1 and similar technique survival in both groups. Older age, lower prealbumin, higher creatinine, not being on activated vitamin D, and high Charlson’s comorbidity index (CCI) score were independent risk factors for death.

Predictors of mortality for major trauma patients in intensive care: A retrospective cohort study

Background: Major trauma places substantial demand on critical care services, is a leading cause of death in under 40-year-olds and causes significant morbidity and mortality across all age groups. Various factors influence patient outcome and predefining these could allow prognostication. The aim of this study was to identify predictors of mortality from major trauma in intensive care. Methods: This was a retrospective study of adult trauma patients admitted to general intensive care between January 2018 and December 2019. We assessed the impact on mortality of patient demographics, patterns of injury, injury scores (Glasgow Coma Score (GCS), Charlson’s comorbidity index (CCI), Acute Physiology and Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Injury Severity Score (ISS) and Probability of Survival Score (Ps19)), number of surgeries and mechanism of injury using logistic regression. Results: A total of 414 patients were included with a median age of 54 years (IQR 34–72). Overall mortality was 18.6%. The most common mechanism of injury was traffic collision (46%). Non-survivors were older, had higher ISS scores with lower GCS on admission and probability of survival scores. Factors independently predictive of mortality were increasing age (OR 1.06, p &lt;0.001) and GCS &lt;15 on admission (OR 7.21, p &lt;0.001). Ps19 was the best predictor of mortality (p &lt;0.001 for each score category), with an AUROC of 0.90. Conclusions: The significant mortality predictors were age, fall from &lt;2 metres, injury of head or limbs, GCS &lt;15 and Ps19. Contrary to previous studies CCI and APACHE II did not significantly predict mortality. Although Ps19 was found to be the best current prognostic score, trauma prognostication would benefit from a single validated scoring system incorporating both physiological variables and injury patterns.

PO-05-163 INCIDENCE AND RHYTHM PRESENTATION OF IN-HOSPITAL VERSUS OUT-OF-HOSPITAL SUDDEN CARDIAC ARREST AND PREDICTORS OF READMISSION AT 90 DAYS

Sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) may culminate in sudden cardiac death (SCD) if resuscitation efforts are unsuccessful or absent. The pathogenesis and system of care for in-hospital and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA and OHCA) are different. We sought to determine predictors of readmission in these patients presenting with SCA and surviving to discharge. All patients >18 years of age presenting with sudden cardiac arrest from 2016-2019 were included. Data were abstracted using the International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision-Clinical Modification from the Nationwide Readmissions Database (NRD). Patient demographics, presence of comorbidities, presenting rhythm, and predictors of readmission were evaluated. Out of 51,998,206 admissions between 2016 to 2019, 35,050 (0.07%) presented with SCA. IHCA was commoner than OHCA [21,347 (60.9%) vs 13,703 (39.1%)]. Patients presenting with OHCA were younger [67 vs 69 years, p <0.0001] and had overall lower systemic comorbidities [Charlson’s comorbidity index (CCI) – OHCA: 2.0 (1.0-3.0) vs IHCA: 2.0 (1.0-4.0) points, P<0.0001]. Pulseless electrical activity (PEA) was the predominant presenting rhythm overall but much higher in the OHCA group [overall: 68.6%, IHCA: 51.5% vs OHCA: 95.4%, p<0.0001]. Ventricular arrhythmia (VA) [ventricular tachycardia (VT), ventricular fibrillation (VF)] were commoner in IHCA as compared to OHCA [OHCA: 2,878 (29.9%) vs IHCA: 6,761 (70.1%), p<0.0001]. Of the patients getting admitted with SCA, 26,080 (74.41%) died at the first admission, with a higher mortality in the OHCA group [IHCA 15,690 (73.5% mortality) vs OHCA 10,390 (75.82% mortality), p<0.0001]. At 90-day follow-up, a much higher percentage of the OHCA group had PEA as compared to IHCA [OHCA: 3,012 (90.9%) vs. IHCA: 2,573 (45.5%), p<0.0001] similar to the first admission. Young age predicted higher readmissions in the IHCA group whereas the presence of diabetes mellitus and renal diseases predicted higher readmission rates in both the groups (P<0.0001). PEA was the predominant presenting rhythm irrespective of the type of cardiac arrest (IHCA or OHCA) at the first admission as well as at readmission. Younger patients (<60 years) with IHCA were more likely to get readmitted, which is alarming and needs a proper evaluation of this cohort to prevent recurrences and reduce mortality among sudden cardiac arrest survivors.

Preliminary Outcome and Quality of Life among Geriatric Head and Neck Cancer (GHNC) Patients Treated with Institutional Nimorad (Nimotuzumab-Modulated Radiotherapy) Protocol

<h3>Purpose/Objective(s)</h3> Treatment for geriatric head and neck squamous carcinomas (GHNC) remain challenging due to multiple patient and treatment related factors. We analyzed radical intent treatment for GHNC with modulated arc therapy (VMAT) and concurrent Nimotuzumab (Nim) as part of prospectively maintained database NIMORAD (Nimotuzumab-modulated radiotherapy) for early clinical outcome and toxicity. <h3>Materials/Methods</h3> 30 (M:25, F:5) patients of biopsy proven locally advanced squamous cell carcinomas staged by whole body PETCT scan (stage III-IVB) were analyzed. All were above 70 years (Range: 70-88 years) and received uniform treatment with VMAT (66-70 Gy/33 fractions) and Inj Nim 200mg weekly for 6 cycles. Cisplatin ineligibility was in terms of age>70, multiple comorbidities, deranged kidney or hearing functions. Patients more than 80 years were selected for NIMORAD only if baseline G8 screening score was 14 or more. All the cases were discussed in Institutional GHNCC (Geriatric head neck cancer clinic). Institutional comprehensive geriatric assessment was followed with G8 scoring, activities of daily living (ADL) by Katz index, nutritional scoring by subjective global assessment (SGA) and co-morbidity scoring with Charlsons comorbidity index (CCI). Primary analysis was related to survival (disease free survival, local control and overall survival) and toxicity. First surveillance PETCT was between 10-14 weeks post treatment. The toxicities were graded as per CTCAE version 3.0. Follow up was every 3 months with 2^nd surveillance PETCT 6-8 months depending on 1^st response. Statistical analyses were carried out using statistical software. <h3>Results</h3> Median follow-up, age and G8 screening score were 18 months, 77 years and 13 respectively. 83.3% patients were male and 60% had oropharyngeal primaries with 10% HPV positive. At 1^st follow up complete response (CR) at primary site was 85% on both FOL and PETCT. Till last follow up 60% had complete response, 16% had loco-regional failure and 2% distant metastases. Nine patients died till last follow up and 5 were lost to follow up. All P16 positive patients (3) had loco-regional and distant control till last follow up. The acute grade 2 mucositis and dysphagia were 70% and 90% respectively with 30% grade 3 dysphagia. Long term tube dependency rates were 10% mostly beyond 80 years. 20% had hematological grade 2 plus toxicity and 10% had skin rash due to Nim. The other notable adverse events were grade 3 trismus, osteoradionecrosis and aspiration pneumonia between 2-5%. Median Katz index was 5, SGA and CCI were higher for hospitalized patients. <h3>Conclusion</h3> This single Institution NIMORAD protocol for GHNC shows promising clinical results with no additional toxicity profile. This can be an option for improved disease control in locally advanced GHNC. Future large cohort prospective documentation with longer follow up is warranted.

Frailty's Prevalence and the Association with Aging-Related Health Conditions in Chinese Community Dwelling Elderly.

In this paper, we have investigated the frailty's prevalence and the association with aging-related health conditions in Chinese community dwelling elderly aged ≥60 years in Lianyungang City of China. In this regard, participants were 1,072 adults aged ≥60 years from Houhe Community of Lianyungang City of China. All the enrolled participants were tested for following parameters: (1) the related risk factors of frailty: including economic status, personal health, understanding and communication skills, and mental and psychological status; (2) aging-related health conditions related to frailty: Charlson's comorbidity index (CCI), Mini Nutritional Assessment Short Form (MNA-SF), Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), and Generalized Anxiety Disorder 7-item (GAD-7); (3) body composition, physical strength, and function testing: appendicular skeletal muscle mass index (ASMI), grip strength, five-repetition sit-to-stand test, 6 m walking speed, and strength assistance rise-climb-fall (SARC-F); (4) assessment of the degree and severity of frailty: physical frailty phenotype (PFP), Morse fall scale (MFS), and activities of daily living (ADL). The frailty's prevalence among the elderly aged ≥60 years in the community of Lianyungang City was 13.8%, 55.4% were prefrail, and 30.8% were robust. The independent risk factors of frailty were age, appendicular skeletal muscle mass index, sarcopenia, education, nutrition, and strength assistance rise-climb-fall (P < 0.05). Aging-related health conditions were associated with frailty, including sarcopenia, nutrition, and falls. However, mental and psychological statuses were not significantly associated with frailty.

EPIDEMIOLOGY AND CLINICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF CARDIOVASCULAR DYSFUNCTION IN CRITICALLY ILL COVID-19 PATIENTS: A PROSPECTIVE COHORT STUDY

Background:Early reports indicate that cardiac involvement can commonly occur in COVID-19 patients. This prospective observational study aimed to evaluate myocardial dysfunction in critically ill COVID-19 patients. Methods:Forty adult patients with confirmed COVID-19 disease admitted to the intensive care unit of a tertiary care hospital were included, following which demographic, baseline laboratory and serial echocardiography was done on days 1, 3, 5 &amp; 7 to assess global or regional wall motion abnormality, left ventricular function [ejection fraction (LVEF), E/e) and right ventricular function [tricuspid annular plane excursion (TAPSE), tricuspid regurgitation (TR) jet)]. Any new onset ECG changes were also noted. Results:Patients (n=40) had median (IQR) age of 51.5 (38.5- 63.5) and median (IQR) SOFA score of 5.5 (5- 7). Median (IQR) P/F ratio of the included patients at the time of recruitment was 250 (180- 300) and median (IQR) Charlsons comorbidity index was 2 (1- 4). Proportion (95% CI) of patients died during hospital stay was 15 (7.1- 29.1) %. We found that, on day 1, 25% patients had mild to moderate LV dysfunction. Although LVEF was statistically higher in patients receiving mechanical ventilation, LVEF, E/e, TAPSE and TR jet did not change significantly from base line till day 7, in both mechanically ventilated and nonventilated patients, or in survivors and non-survivors. However, LVEF correlated with PaO2/FiO2 ratio (P/F) ratio at day 3 (rho= 0.46, p=0.003), 5 (rho= 0.47, p=0.002) and 7 (rho= 0.41, p=0.01), whereas TR jet with correlated inversely wit P/F ratio at day 1 (rho= -0.39, p=0.01) and 3 (rho= -0.39, p=0.01). Conclusion: Our study highlights that although P/F ratio correlated with both left ventricular and right function, the dynamics of both left ventricular and right ventricular function was non- progressive in both mechanically ventilated and as well as spontaneously breathing patients, and similar in both survivors and non survivors.

Prediction of Mortality in Older Hospitalized Patients after Discharge as Determined by Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment.

Several dimensional impairments regarding Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) have been shown to be associated with the prognosis of older patients. The purpose of this study is to investigate mortality prediction factors based upon clinical characteristics and test in CGA, and then subsequently develop a prediction model to classify both short- and long-term mortality risk in hospitalized older patients after discharge. A total of 1565 older patients with a median age of 81 years (74.0–86.0) were consecutively enrolled. The CGA, which included assessment of clinical, cognitive, functional, nutritional, and social parameters during hospitalization, as well as clinical information on each patient was recorded. Within the one-year follow up period, 110 patients (7.0%) had died. Using simple Cox regression analysis, it was shown that a patient’s Length of Stay (LOS), previous hospitalization history, admission Barthel Index (BI) score, Instrumental Activity of Daily Living (IADL) score, Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) score, and Charlson’s Comorbidity Index (CCI) score were all associated with one-year mortality after discharge. When these parameters were dichotomized, we discovered that those who were aged ≥90 years, had a LOS ≥ 12 days, an MNA score < 17, a CCI ≥ 2, and a previous admission history were all independently associated with one-year mortality using multiple cox regression analyses. By applying individual scores to these risk factors, the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) was 0.691 with a cut-off value score ≧ 3 for one year mortality, 0.801 for within 30-day mortality, and 0.748 for within 90-day mortality. It is suggested that older hospitalized patients with varying risks of mortality may be stratified by a prediction model, with tailored planning being subsequently implemented.

Experience of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography with side-viewing duodenoscope in patients with previous gastric surgery.

Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) with conventional side-viewing duodenoscope can be challenging and unsuccessful at altered anatomy in the gastrointestinal tract. This study aimed to evaluate our experience with ERCP in patients with previous gastric surgery. Patients on whom ERCP was performed from January 2017 to August 2021 and who had previous gastric surgery were included into the study. Age, sex, comorbidity, Charlson's Comorbidity Index (CCI), ERCP indication, previous gastric surgery (indication, type of resection and reconstruction), history of cholecystectomy, and MRCP results were evaluated retrospectively. The results were compared as successful ERCP (SERCP) or unsuccessful ERCP (USERCP). Also, odds ratio ERCP failure was also evaluated. Forty-three patients were included into study. Mean age was 68.8 ± 13.6 years. The most common sex was female (51.2%). The most common ERCP indication was choledocholithiasis with 44.2%, gastric surgery indication was peptic ulcer with 72.1%, gastric resection was subtotal with 67.4%, and reconstruction was gastrojejunostomy with 58.1%. The success rate of ERCP was 44.2%. Mean CCI was 4.16 ± 2.28. Only malignancy history was significantly higher in the USERCP group (p= 0.026). Male sex, non-choledocholithiasis indication, history of malignancy, CCI> 4, total gastrectomy, Roux-NY (RNY) reconstruction, history of cholecystectomy, and intercalarily to the bile duct dilatation in MRCP were likelihood for USERCP. While history of malignancy and cholecystectomy were the only significant factor for unsuccessful ERCP, male sex, total gastrectomy, RNY anastomosis result in a higher likelihood of ERCP failure in patients with previous gastric surgery. Alternative devices to side-viewing duodenoscope will increase success in selected patients.

Gabapentin and Opioids Utilization in Patients With Diabetic Neuropathy Enrolled in Medicare (2012–2016): A Cohort Study

This retrospective cohort study describes the utilization of opioids and gabapentin among patients with diabetic neuropathy who were gabapentin and opioid naïve, and assesses predictors of concomitant use of opioids and gabapentin. Using Medicare claims data (2012–2016), 22 037 patients were identified, of whom 23.42% (N = 5161) initiated opioids without concomitant gabapentin, 4.56% (N = 1004) initiated gabapentin without concomitant opioids, and 3.87% (N = 852) had concomitant use of gabapentin and opioids 12 months following their index date (date of earliest diagnosis). Concomitant gabapentin and opioid use were more common for lower doses of both drugs and for 15 days or more cumulatively. Compared to individuals aged 65–74, those aged 75–84 (OR: .759; 95% CI: 0.653–.882) or ≥ 85 years (OR: .586, 95% CI: 0.462–.743) had lower odds of concomitant use. People residing in the Northeast had lower odds of concomitant use, compared to those residing in the South (OR: .646 95% CI: 0.535–.779). Females compared to males (OR: 1.185, 95% CI: 1.027–1.367), people with higher Charlson’s Comorbidity Index (CCI) scores (OR: 1.085, 95% CI: 1.037–1.135) or those having anxiety (OR: 1.462, 95% CI: 1.131–1.889) had higher odds of concomitant use. Concomitant prescriptions of opioids and gabapentin were more common for longer durations, indicating the need for interventions aimed at minimizing this prescribing practice.

Associations of Clinical Characteristics and Intestinal Flora Imbalance in Stable Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Patients and the Construction of an Early Warning Model.

ObjectiveEstablish a simple predictive model and scoring rule that is suitable for clinical medical staff in respiratory departments to assess intestinal flora imbalance occurrence in stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients.MethodsFrom January 1, 2019, to December 31, 2020, COPD patients (195 cases) – who attended the Outpatient Department, Respiratory and Critical Care, Yixing Hospital, Jiangsu University – were enrolled in a cross-sectional study. Based on stool examination results, patients were divided into experimental (41 cases) and control (154 cases) groups. Single-factor and logistic regression analyses were performed with the baseline data of the two groups to obtain a new predictive model, which was further simplified.ResultsFive predictive factors composed the model: body mass index (BMI), serum albumin (ALB), Charlson’s Comorbidity Index (CCI), gastrointestinal symptom score (GSRs), and Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) classification. The model to predict intestinal flora imbalance in stable COPD patients had an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.953 [95% CI (0.924, 0.982)]. After simplifying the scoring rules, the AUC was 0.767 [95% CI (0.676, 0.858)].ConclusionIn the current study, we obtained a model that could effectively predict intestinal flora imbalance risk in stable COPD patients, being suitable for implementation in early treatments to improve the prognosis. Moreover, all indicators can be easily and simply obtained.

Abstract 14411: Predictors of Delirium Among Hospitalized Older Adults With Cardiovascular Disease

Introduction: Delirium is an acute confusional state typically seen in patients admitted to the hospital that can affect mentation, cause agitation, and complicate inpatient stays. The number of older adults with cardiovascular diseases is rapidly increasing. When admitted to the hospital, the elderly are at increased risk of developing delirium. Hypothesis: We hypothesized that there will be predictors that are associated with delirium among older adults who were hospitalized in acute care units with cardiovascular disease. Methods: A retrospective chart review was conducted on patients initially admitted to the coronary care unit (CCU) and cardiac intermediate care unit (CIMU) of a major metropolitan hospital between January 2019 and December 2019. Patients under the age of 65 were excluded. The remaining patients were analyzed with logistic multivariable regression and odds ratios were calculated for factors associated with developing delirium, adjusting for patient characteristics including Charlson’s Comorbidity Index (CCI) and admission reasons. Results: A total of 327 patients with a mean age of 75.6 years were analyzed. Of those patients, 227 (69.4%) had a CCI score of 4 or less. There were no significant associations with development of delirium at any CCI score compared to a score of 0; however, certain admission reasons were significantly associated with delirium, including needing a coronary artery bypass graft and minimally invasive valve repair (Table 1). Conclusions: Several different admission diagnoses were significantly associated with increased odds of delirium. Although CCI scores were not significantly associated with the development of delirium during the hospitalization, other risk factors such as age, reason for admission, and procedures performed may have stronger associations. The current study will be a foundation to develop a more patient-centered strategy to prevent and manage delirium in the growing elderly population.

NCOG-09. PREDICTIVE GERIATRIC FACTORS IN ELDERLY PATIENTS TREATED FOR IDH-MUTANT HIGH-GRADE GLIOMAS: A FRENCH POLA NETWORK STUDY

Abstract We aimed to describe the characteristics, patterns of care and predictive geriatric factors of elderly patients with IDH-mutant (IDHm) high-grade gliomas (HGG) included in the French POLA network, dedicated to HGG (including 68% of IDHm HGG). For IDHm HGG patients over the age of 70 years, geriatric features were collected: G8 score items (appetite, weight loss, mobility, neuropsychological disorders, body mass index, medications, self-rated health, age), Activities and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (ADL, IADL) scores, Charlson’s comorbidity Index (CCI) and biological markers. Out of the 1433 HGG patients included in the POLA Network, 119 (8.3%) occurred in patients ≥ 70 years. Among them, 39 presented with IDHm HGG. Of these 39 patients, estimated G8 score was ≤ 14/17 for 16 patients (64%), ADL score was &amp;lt; 6 for 33.3%, IADL score was &amp;lt; 4 for 47% and CCI was ≥ 5 for 72%. Regarding treatment feasibility, 6 of the 19 patients treated by temozolomide prematurely discontinued chemotherapy including 2 for toxicity and 4 for progression. Five of the 10 patients treated by PCV prematurely discontinued chemotherapy, all for toxicity. In multivariate analysis, loss of mobility (p=0.018; p=0.008), severe neuropsychological disorders (p=0.005; p=0.047), body mass index &amp;lt; 21 kg/m2 (p=0.002; p=0.006) and ADL score &amp;lt; 6 (p=0.002; p=0.01) were significantly predictive of poor PFS and OS. Then we generated a specific brain geriatric score including these four items with a sensibility, specificity and AUC for long term survivor (≥ 48 months) of 100%, 83% and 0.948 respectively. Using a cutoff of &amp;lt; 10/13, this score was significantly correlated to PFS and OS (p&amp;lt; 0.001 both). In conclusion, geriatric predictive factors may contribute to the elderly management improvement: the brain geriatric score must now be validated in a prospective independent cohort including IDHm and IDHwt elderly patients.

Short- and Long-Term Outcomes of Catheter-Directed Thrombolysis versus Pulmonary Artery Embolectomy in Pulmonary Embolism: A National Population-Based Study

Objectives: This study aimed to compare the short-term and long-term follow-up outcomes of catheter-directed thrombolysis (CDT) with those of pulmonary artery embolectomy (PAE) for patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) included in a nationwide cohort. Background: Data allowing direct comparisons between CDT and PAE are lacking in the literature, and the optimal management of high-risk and intermediate-risk PE is still debated. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted with data for 2001 through 2013 collected from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD). Patients who were first admitted for PE and treated with either CDT or PAE were included and compared. In-hospital outcomes included in-hospital death and safety (bleeding and cardiac arrhythmias) outcomes. Follow-up outcomes included all-cause mortality and recurrent PE during the 1- and 2-year follow-up periods and through the last follow-up. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) based on the propensity score was used to minimize possible selection bias, including indices for multimorbidity such as the Charlson’s Comorbidity Index (CCI) and HAS-BLED scores. Results: A total of 389 patients treated between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2013, were identified; 169 underwent CDT and 220 underwent PAE. After IPTW, there were no significant differences in in-hospital mortality (18.2% vs 21.3%; odds ratio 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.70–1.62) or the incidence of safety outcomes between the CDT and PAE groups. The risks of all-cause mortality (30% vs 29.5%; hazard ratio 1.16, 95% CI: 0.89–1.53), recurrent PE (7.2% vs 8.7%; subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] 0.68, 95% CI: 0.39–1.21) and new-onset pulmonary hypertension (SHR 0.25, 95% CI: 0.05–1.32) were also not significantly different between the CDT and PAE groups at 2 years of follow-up. Subgroup analysis indicated that PAE may be associated with a more favorable 2-year mortality in patients <65 years old, patients with CCI scores of <3, patients with HAS-BLED scores of 1 to 2, and patients without cardiogenic shock (all P for interaction <.05). Conclusions: In patients with PE who required reperfusion therapy, CDT and PAE resulted in similar in-hospital and long-term all-cause mortality rates and long-term rates of recurrent PE. Bleeding risks were also comparable in the 2 groups.

Role of comorbidity in assessment of long-term prognosis after myocardial infarction

The aim of the study. To compare different methods for assessing comorbidity in terms of its long-term predictive value after myocardial infarction (MI).Materials and methods. The analysis included 1176 patients with MI who were consecutively admitted to the hospital. The incidence of STsegment elevation MI was 60%; every second patient underwent endovascular intervention. All patients underwent an analysis of the severity of comorbidity according to the CIRS system (Cumulative lllness Rating Scale), according to the CCI (the Charlson’s comorbidity index), the CDS scale of chronic diseases (Chronic Disease Score), as well as according to their own model ‘K9’ (patent RU2734993C1 dated 10.27.2020) based on the summation of nine diseases: type 2 diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, atrial fibrillation, anemia, stroke, arterial hypertension, obesity, peripheral atherosclerosis, thrombocytopenia.Results. Long-term mortality was 12.1 %. In Cox regression analysis of long-term survival after MI, the K9 model showed the best operational characteristics with a p &lt; 0.00001 level. In multivariate analysis, when comorbidity data were added to GRACE, an increase in the χ2 value for GARCE + CCI and GRACE + K9 to 102.5 and 99.3, respectively, and the values of the area under the ROC curve to 0.78 (0.74–0, 82) and 0.77 (0.72–0.81), respectively. Regardless of the initial level of risk assessed by the GRACE scale, severe comorbidity (four or more diseases according to the K9) significantly increased the relative risk of mortality. In patients with severe comorbidity, the predictive value of the GRACE scale was the lowest.Conclusions. Among the analyzed methods of assessing comorbidity, only CCI and its own K9 scale have an acceptable predictive value, allowing better adaptation of the GRACE scale for stratification of the long-term risk of death after MI. At the same time ‘K9’, based on the summation of nine previously described diseases, is much more convenient than CCI in practical application

Percutaneous cholecystostomy results of 136 acute cholecystitis patients: A retrospective cohort study

Background/Aim: Percutaneous cholecystostomy (PC) is an alternative procedure to surgery in selected patients with acute cholecystitis (AC). This study aimed to review the clinical and surgical results of patients who underwent percutaneous cholecystostomy. Methods: The records of patients who underwent PC for AC were evaluated for age, gender, comorbidities, survey, catheterization timing, complications, control, removal timing, operation type, interval time, pathology, C-reactive protein (CRP) level and white blood cell count (WBC), ultrasonography (USG) and computed tomography (CT) results. Results: One hundred and thirty-six AC patients who underwent PC were included in the study. The median age was 73 (32-96) years and 57.3% of the patients were male. Out of the 136, 106 (78%) had an American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification score of 3 or 4. The median Charlson’s comorbidity index (CCI) score was 5 (0-13). The median timing of catheterization was 23 (20-144) hours and length of hospital stay (LOS) was 3 (1-25) days. Dislocation was the most common complication of PC, and 7.4% (n=10) had recurrent AC. The median time until tube removal was 26.5 (1-238) days. Among all, 41.2% (n=56) of the patients underwent interval cholecystectomy, which equates to 76.8% of the those performed laparoscopically. The median time until the operation was 100 (1-264) days. Chronic cholecystitis was the most common pathology of cholecystectomy after PC. Bacterial bile cultures were analyzed in 36 of the patients and showed positive results in 66.7%, with no overall effect on the outcome. Nine patients (6.6%) died. Conclusion: The importance of PC in AC increased with the Covid19 pandemic. PC was performed especially for old patients with ASA ≥3, and CCI ≥5 due to lower complication and recurrence rates. PC could be the final treatment for selected AC patients. Interval cholecystectomies performed after 8 weeks had a shorter LOS and a lower rate of complication.

Independent Predictors of Mortality Among Patients With NAFLD Hospitalized With COVID-19 Infection.

The impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic among patients with chronic liver disease is unknown. Given the high prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), we determined the predictors of mortality and hospital resource use among patients with NAFLD admitted with COVID‐19 by using electronic medical records data for adult patients with COVID‐19 hospitalized in a multihospital health system who were discharged between March and December 2020. NAFLD was diagnosed by imaging or liver biopsy without other liver diseases. Charlson’s comorbidity index (CCI) and Elixhauser comorbidity index (ECI) scores were calculated. In the study sample, among the 4,835 patients hospitalized for COVID‐19, 553 had NAFLD (age: 55 ± 16 years, 51% male, 17% White, 11% Black, 58% Hispanic, 8% Asian, 5% from congregated living, 58% obese, 15% morbid obesity [body mass index ≥ 40], 51% type 2 diabetes, 63% hypertension, mean [SD] baseline CCI of 3.9 [3.2], and baseline ECI of 13.4 [11.3]). On admission, patients with NAFLD had more respiratory symptoms, higher body temperature and heart rate, higher alanine aminotransferase and aspartate aminotransferase than non‐NAFLD controls (n = 2,736; P < 0.05). Of the patients with NAFLD infected with COVID‐19, 3.9% experienced acute liver injury. The NAFLD group had significantly longer length of stay, intensive care unit use, and mechanical ventilation, with a crude inpatient mortality rate of 11%. In multivariate analysis, independent predictors of inpatient mortality among patients with NAFLD infected with COVID‐19 were older age, morbid obesity, ECI score ≥ 11, higher Fibrosis‐4 Index (FIB‐4) score, and oxygen saturation <90% (all P < 0.05), but not sex, race/ethnicity, or any individual comorbidity (all P > 0.05). Conclusion: Patients with NAFLD infected with COVID‐19 tend to be sicker on admission and require more hospital resource use. Independent predictors of mortality included higher FIB‐4 and multimorbidity scores, morbid obesity, older age, and hypoxemia on admission.

MO533WHICH PARAMETERS BEST PREDICT POSITIVE COVID-19 STATUS FOLLOWING HIP FRACTURE FOR PATIENTS LIVING WITH CKD?

Background and AimsPatients living with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at greater susceptibility of sustaining hip fractures compared to those without CKD due to higher falls risk. Post-trauma clinical outcomes for patients living with CKD are exacerbated by frailty, co-morbidities and sarcopenia. Patients living with CKD may require lengthy hospitalization following hip fracture, considering the additional indications for extensive treatment and rehabilitation. A long hospital stay may bring greater risks of contracting COVID-19, given the magnitude of this current global pandemic. Complications from COVID-19 significantly increase mortality risks for older patients living with CKD after acute trauma, as a considerable proportion will have a poor baseline health and functional status. Our study aims to determine the most useful clinical and laboratory assessment tools to predict for a positive COVID-19 status following hospitalization with hip fracture in patients living with CKD.MethodPatients with CKDG3b-5 admitted from home to a tertiary hospital in North West UK with hip fracture between Feb and Dec 2020 were included. Each patient included in this study received at least one COVID-19 nasopharyngeal swab during their hospitalization. Parameters assessed on hospital admission for each patient included Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), Charlson’s Co-morbidity Index (CCI), Chronic Kidney Disease Frailty Index Laboratory Score (CKD FI-LAB), Estimated VO2 Peak, Karnofsky Performance Status Scale, Sernbo Score, Nottingham Hip Fracture Score, ASA Physical Status Classification System Score and Abbreviated Mental Test Score. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were performed to evaluate the ability of individual parameters to predict for a positive COVID-19 status following hip fracture in patients living with CKD. Events of 30-day mortality were recorded.Results92 patients met study inclusion criteria. The mean age was 84.6±7.8 years and the female:male ratio was 1.6:1. 7 patients (7.6%) were on long-term dialysis and the mean eGFR amongst non-dialysis patients was 36.5±13.8 ml/min/1.73m2. The median length of hospitalization was 17 days. 22 patients (23.9%) tested positive for COVID-19. Area under a Curve (AUC) values from ROC analyses are shown in Table 1. The difference in 30-day mortality rate between patients who tested positive for COVID-19 and those who tested negative was +6.8% (p<0.001).ConclusionFrailty and co-morbidity assessment tools (CFS, CCI and CKD FI-LAB) displayed the best predictive ability for positive COVID-19 status following hip fracture in patients living with CKD. A continuous, holistic multi-disciplinary team approach during hospitalization for comprehensive geriatric assessment and optimization of medical co-morbidities may improve outcomes, in anticipation of a potential lengthy hospital stay. To improve prognosis, research efforts should continue to explore avenues on reducing COVID-19 rates within this patient population.MO533 Table 1:AUC values to predict for positive COVID-19 status following hip fracture in patients living with CKDPredictorAUC Value95% ClClinical Frailty Scale0.940.87-1.00Charlson’s Co-morbidity Index0.920.86-0.99Chronic Kidney Disease Frailty Index Laboratory Score0.880.81-0.95Estimated VO2 Peak0.860.79-0.92Karnofsky Performance Status Scale0.840.77-0.91Sernbo Score0.800.74-0.87Nottingham Hip Fracture Score0.770.70-0.84ASA Physical Status Classification System Score0.740.67-0.81Abbreviated Mental Test Score0.650.58-0.72