In patients with triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC)-the subtype with the poorest prognosis among breast cancers-it is crucial to assess the response to the currently widely employed neoadjuvant treatment (NAT) approaches. This study investigates the correlation between baseline conventional ultrasound (US) and shear-wave elastography (SWE) indicators and the pathological response of TNBC following NAT, with a specific focus on assessing predictive capability in the baseline state. This retrospective analysis was conducted by extracting baseline US features and SWE parameters, categorizing patients based on postoperative pathological grading. A univariate analysis was employed to determine the relationship between ultrasound indicators and pathological reactions. Additionally, we employed a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and multivariate logistic regression methods to evaluate the predictive potential of the baseline US indicators. This study comprised 106 TNBC patients, with 30 (28.30%) in a nonmajor histological response (NMHR) group and 76 (71.70%) in a major histological response (MHR) group. Following the univariate analysis, we found that T staging, dmax values, volumes, margin changes, skin alterations (i.e., thickening and invasion), retromammary space invasions, and supraclavicular lymph node abnormalities were significantly associated with pathological efficacy (p < 0.05). Combining clinical information with either US or SWE independently yielded baseline predictive abilities, with AUCs of 0.816 and 0.734, respectively. Notably, the combined model demonstrated an improved AUC of 0.827, with an accuracy of 76.41%, a sensitivity of 90.47%, a specificity of 55.81%, and statistical significance (p < 0.01). The baseline US and SWE indicators for TNBC exhibited a strong relationship with NAT response, offering predictive insights before treatment initiation, to a considerable extent.