Changing Security Environment Research Articles

East Asia’s Alliance Dilemma: Public Perceptions of the Competing Risks of Extended Nuclear Deterrence

ABSTRACT Against the backdrop of a rapidly changing security environment in East Asia, regional actors have seen a surge in “nuclear anxiety”. Worries among citizens of US allies and partners about rising nuclear threats and nuclear proliferation risks critically shape US foreign policy in East Asia. This paper thus asks: What drives nuclear anxiety in East Asia? And how can the United States most effectively resolve it? We situate nuclear anxiety in the dynamics of abandonment and entrapment that exist between allied states, as well as in the unique regional security structure, or the hub-and-spoke system in East Asia. To better understand the implications of nuclear anxiety on regional nuclear policy, we analyze the results of an original survey conducted in June 2023 across Washington’s five allies and partners in East Asia: Australia, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. The survey results suggest the presence of the dynamics of both nuclear entrapment and abandonment among these regional actors, as well as mixed interests in indigenous nuclear programs. In addition, we demonstrate how citizens of East Asia evaluate possible policy options that could help Washington mitigate regional nuclear anxiety.

Evolution of the policy of the Republic of Finland regarding NATO membership (1994–2023)

ABSTRACT This article explores the evolution of Finland's policy regarding NATO membership from 1994 to 2023, delving into the strategic shifts and adaptations in response to changing regional and global security dynamics. The primary aim is to elucidate how Finland's unique strategic position, domestic considerations, and pre-existing security relationships influenced its pathway to NATO membership. Utilizing a methodological approach grounded in document analysis, the study scrutinizes official government reports, and treaties to trace Finland's journey toward NATO. The findings reveal a multi-phased approach in Finland's policy evolution. Conclusively, the study underscores Finland's strategic agility in adapting its foreign policy amidst changing security environments. This policy evolution, culminating in NATO membership, reflects Finland's response to regional geopolitical shifts and emerging security threats, highlighting the importance of strategic flexibility and alignment in national security policy. The article contributes to a broader understanding of small states' security strategies and alliance politics, offering valuable insights into Finland's unique experience and the dynamics of NATO expansion in the 21st century.

Development of mathematical models to support decision-making regarding the functioning of critical infrastructure in the industry of energy supply

The object of research is the energy supply company and the processes of generation and supply of electric energy. The paper examines the problems of building mathematical models for forecasting the operation of a critical infrastructure object in the conditions of a changing security environment, characterized by unpredictability, the presence of uncertainties of various types, the appearance of new threats, their combinations, changes in the form, duration, nature of their influence. In the work, the main attention is paid to the study of the functioning of critical infrastructure in the field of energy supply. Based on the study of the functioning of the energy company system, methods of dealing with uncertainties at the stage of data preparation for analysis and during the preliminary construction of models are presented, in particular, statistical and probabilistic approaches, modeling of the studied processes, alternative methods of estimating model parameters, etc. The complexity of preparing the input data set is related to the fact that it is necessary to ensure the representativeness and variability of the data sets, given that a significant number of factors must be included in the model according to the requirements of regulatory documents, which can lead to multicollinearity of the input variables. The paper proposes an analytical toolkit based on the use of mathematical models and their combinations, intended for use in specialized decision support systems. In the course of the research, a number of numerical experiments were conducted, in which the proposed methodology was worked out on the materials of the enterprise – the object of the critical infrastructure of the energy sector. SAS Energy Forecasting software was used to build the models. The best forecasting results are obtained using generalized linear models (GLM), in particular the GLM model in the form of ARIMAX (a moving average autoregressive model that includes an integrated trend component and external regressors). The proposals presented in the work will allow to increase the efficiency of the functioning of the energy sector, including the determination of the goals, tasks and benchmarks of its operation in regular mode for certain periods of time, as well as in the field of development of universal and special mechanisms for ensuring stability in the mode of response to threats and critical situations.

Non-Traditional Security Threats and NATO’s Response in the Contemporary Security Environment

Abstract This research paper emphasizes the importance of NATO’s adaptation to non-traditional threats in maintaining stability and security in the changing security environment. It highlights the need for NATO allies to prioritize the development of strategies and action plans that address emerging issues such as new technologies, energy security, climate change, hybrid threats, and cyber threats. The paper suggests that in order to effectively counter these non-traditional threats, NATO must remain current with the latest technological advancements. As such, the paper recommends that NATO allies develop new strategies and action plans without delay to counter these threats and ensure security. The relevance of NATO can only be ensured through its transformation and adaptation, which in turn makes its existence self-justified.

Bezpieczeństwo wschodniej granicy Polski wobec współczesnych zagrożeń transgranicznych

Modern threats are a multidimensional problem, in addition to the old and well-known, there are constantly new, dynamically changing security environments. The grounds for security threats are diverse and evolve along with the development of international relations, changes in the interests of the state and its position on the international arena. The aggressive, imperial policy of the Russian Federation is an example of this and contributes to instability in the region and seriously threatens the sovereignty of neighboring countries. Guaranteeing the security of the Polish border (especially the eastern – external of European Union) is a serious challenge and must be constantly adapted to the changing threats occurring in times of peace, crisis, and also in times of war. The author characterizes the contemporary security environment of Poland and the accompanying cross-border threats, presents the process of shaping the EU external border security system together with the current situation of the security management of the Polish state border. It also draws conclusions that the state border must still be in the center of interest of the state authorities and indicates that as a result of the current external threat to the state, there is a need to improve the cooperation of services and institutions responsible for the security of the state border in the national and international dimension.

The First Year of the Conflict in Ukraine: Political and Military Consequences for Central and Eastern Europe

The outcome of the conflict in Ukraine will bring fundamental political, military, economic and social consequences, and define global and regional balance of power and fate of number of international organizations, including European Union and NATO. The aim of this paper is to analyze political and military consequences of the first year of the conflict in Ukraine for countries of Central and Eastern Europe, including the Baltic States and further development of trans-Atlantic link for European security, including development of NATO Alliance until 2030. Fundamentally different threat perception in Russian Federation and in NATO, EU countries, and Ukraine led to the beginning of military action of Russian Federation against Ukraine in February 24, 2022. Since then, military conflict in Ukraine has evolved into full-scale war on terrain of Ukraine, and increasingly negative escalation of political, military and economic relationships between Russian Federation and NATO, EU and other actors, bringing parties to nuclear standoff. War in Ukraine has brought substantial political and military endurance test for NATO and European Union. The immediate political consequences of the first year of war in Ukraine have been outlined in NATO Summit in Madrid in summer of 2022 and in NATO Agenda 2030. Continuation of NATO Open Door Policy has led to invitation of Finland and Sweden to join the Alliance thus fundamentally changing security environment in Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltic Sea Region. The Summit also declared to strengthen military posture on the Eastern flank of the Alliance thus countering hypothetical military threat of Russian Federation to the Baltic States and Central and Eastern European states. From the pure military perspective- NATO has substantially increased military support of Ukraine via creation of decision-making platform of Ramstein format as well as increasing understanding of NATO members for need to spend more resources allocated to defense. On the other hand, European Union has granted status of candidate for Ukraine, as well as provided continuous economic and financial support for Ukraine. Moreover, European Union has staged continuous and increasing policy of economic sanctions towards Russian Federation. However, despite substantial increase of political and military coherence and coordination of efforts of NATO and EU countries after the first year of the war in Ukraine, there are mounting challenges and risks. Firstly, increasing economic challenges in EU and NATO member- states which, subsequently, can lead to fundamental political consequences thus leading to diminished political and military support to Ukraine. Secondly, potential challenges for further military support of Ukraine and NATO Open Door Policy. NATO members- Turkey and Hungary-have different point of view on the enlargement of the Alliance and support of Ukraine. Thirdly, global and regional attitudes towards war in Ukraine and, predominantly, Western coalition of support for Ukraine. People’s Republic of China, India, Africa, Central and Latin America, other global and regional actors are mostly neutral towards war in Ukraine thus avoiding political and economic confrontation with Russian Federation. Yet another fundamental challenge: NATO countries are continuing to provide Ukraine with increasingly effective and sophisticated weapon systems which can lead to direct military confrontation between Russian Federation and NATO/The United States in 2023. Taking into account previously mentioned risks and challenges, it is obvious that there are several scenarios of development of war in Ukraine ranging from complete military victory for Ukraine and, subsequently, for the West to complete military victory of Russian Federation in Ukraine via long-term warfare of attrition.

협력적 위기관리 경찰활동에 관한 탐색적 연구

To minimize the damage caused by natural and social disasters, the government will come up with a reform of the existing disaster safety management system. Establishing an organic system of cooperation between police, firefighting, and local governments to enhance the on-site response will be in the central issue of the reform. Furthermore, the rapid changes in security environment and the increased possibility of uncertain large disasters make it necessary to systematically enhance police activities at each stage of crisis management. In addition, a leadership approach centered on police activities and police management capabilities will be crucial for successful crisis management. By examining the crisis management system in the U.S. and Germany, this paper draws implications for the role of police in the crisis management system in South Korea and claims that cooperative police leadership is essential for that system. Moreover, this paper provides with a list of capabilities necessary for police activities in crisis management as a basis for the future development of police capabilities model for crisis management.

Changing Security Environment in East Asia and Its Implications on Japan’s Nuclear Policy

ABSTRACT The basic framework of Japan’s nuclear policy, consisting of four pillars, was established just before the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) was opened for signature in 1968. Since then, the security environment in modern Japan, surrounded by three nuclear-armed states (China, North Korea, and Russia) that are willing or not hesitant to change the status quo by force, has increasingly become more challenging. The new National Security Strategy of Japan made public in December 2022 states that “Japan’s security environment is as severe and complex as it has ever been since the end of World War II”. Despite this severe security environment, there is no indication of significant changes in the basic framework of Japan’s nuclear policy. However, with increasing discussions in the Japanese security community that the strike capability gap with China needs to be filled with nuclear weapons and that Japan should promote nuclear operational integration with the United States, Japan’s security policy may rely more on nuclear weapons, which could end up conflicting with Japan’s current nuclear disarmament policy, even while the basic framework as above remains the same, in particular unless and until the strike capability gap is addressed by fielding counterstrike capabilities. Such policy decisions should be made in a balanced manner so that these would not create a significant security dilemma and not increase the risk of military conflict in the region, in which case the possibility of escalation to the risk of nuclear weapons use cannot be ruled out.

Japan's foreign policy in the settlement of territorial disputes

Territorial disputes are a key element of Japanese security, directly aff ecting Tokyo's relations with all three of its closest neighbors: China, Russia and South Korea. Because of its complex history of repeated invasions as well as militaristic expansion, Japan has accumulated a tangled legacy of confl icts and disputes with its neighbors over the three contiguous territories, namely Senkaku, Dokdo, and the Kuril Islands, claiming or disputing sovereignty over them. The disputes discussed in the article are a direct result of Japan's involvement in World War II and the often ambiguous language used in treaties and other documents signed at the end of it. The article presents Tokyo's position based on Japanese documents and the positions of Beijing, Seoul and Moscow based on the Cairo Declaration, the Potsdam Declaration and the San Francisco Peace Treaty. The author illustrated her arguments with maps. During the analysis physiographic and historical approaches were used. The author's examination of these disputes provides a clear picture of how the changing security environment has aff ected the position of Japan and its neighbors over time. In the 2000s, Tokyo introduced a special term — territorial diplomacy "redogayko" which goal was international recognition of the legitimacy of Japanese sovereignty over disputed territories. The Ministry of Foreign Aff airs of Japan conducts an active policy to inform the world community about the rights of Tokyo to the Senkaku Islands, Takeshima, and the socalled "Northern Territories". During the analysis of the positions of the concerned countries the author concludes that Japan successfully defends the ownership of the Senkaku Islands, but so far has no proper results with Dokdo and the Kuril Islands. Russia's attitude to these disputes cannot be passive. First, Moscow is a direct party to one of them. Second, South Korea and China are basing their arguments on Japan's imperial past and, like Russia, on World War II documents.

Simulation of communication and transportation of the wounded in a medical facility

The current modern world, relationships between individuals and the rapidly changing security environment bring with it the possibility of various crisis phenomena. The latest international crisis phenomena are the global pandemic and the war conflict in Ukraine. The mentioned crisis situations also have an impact on the normal operations of organizations, which, however, must also relate to individual other crisis situations that can reach a level of preparedness for their occurrence.When an emergency occurs, it is important to ensure a timely and adequate response to its occurrence. Therefore, it is necessary to create internal guidelines which all employees of organisation must be familiar with. Employees need to be aware of their duties, responsibilities and procedures are for dealing with an emergency as part of prevention and education of employees to ensure required level of preparedness for dealing with an incident. The article is focused on trauma plan, which needs to be activated in a medical facility after emergence of a crisis phenomenon with a mass threat to people. In event such an emergency, two key factors must be met - communication and transport.

Economic coercion as a means of hybrid warfare: The South Caucasus as a focal point

The rapidly changing security environment has brought a plethora of non-military measures to the fore. These measures have completely changed the nature of hostilities by giving them a hybrid character. With regard to the South Caucasus region, the chasm among the political courses pursued by particular states makes the overall region more susceptible to diverse external threats of a political, economic, military and cultural nature. This paper focuses on the economic component of the hybrid warfare in the South Caucasus region. The issues are considered from a security point of view and not from an economic perspective. The vulnerabilities of particular nations in the region to economic coercion are highlighted in the paper and suggestions for improving them made. The authors underscore the regional unity in the South Caucasus as a prerequisite for eliminating or at least mitigating economic dependence and healing the “regional fracture” that has lasted for decades.

대한민국 육군사관학교 양성교육 변천 과정 분석

This study firstly identified the key subjects and contents of education of the Korea Military Academy(KMA) from 1946 to the present and analyzed by applying the elements of Samuel P. Huntington's military professionalization. The training process for cadets of the KMA can be divided into four periods. First, the introduction period of professionalization(1946-1950) continued its efforts to train elite officers as a regular Military Academy despite poor conditions for professionalization. However, due to the outbreak of the Korean War, these efforts were stopped and did not bear fruit. Second, the beginning of professionalization(1951-1960) was the first step toward professionalization when the regular four-year Military Academy was reopened during the Korean War. Although it began by imitating the system of the U.S. Military Academy(USMA), an educational system for military schools with military expertise as a beginner commander and national guardianship began to be established. Third, in the period of professionalization development(1961-1980), due to North Korea's frequent armed provocations and participation in the Vietnam War, graduates of the military history had the opportunity to participate in the war, and their experience factors were reflected in the military history curriculum. The spirit of sacrifice and patriotism shown by the graduates of the KMA served as an example for the cadets to establish a view of the state and life. Fourth, in the period of settlement(1981-present), various educational programs were implemented to establish new education courses to keep pace with the rapidly changing security environment, internationalization, and information age. As such, it can be seen that the training process of the KMA has gradually changed from simply training officers to systematic education for professionalization. Based on the results of future research, it will be possible to more clearly see the impact of each military academy's education on professionalization by comparing and analyzing the training education system of Naval and Air Force academies.

The ASEAN way and the changing security environment: navigating challenges to informality and centrality

As one of the more successful regional organisations in the world, ASEAN has been the driver of regional institution building in the Indo-Pacific. The key features in the ASEAN-led institutions are the informality of these arrangements and the stamp of the ASEAN way in regional processes dealing with security challenges. The article argues that despite changes in the strategic landscape with new challenges like the political crisis in Myanmar, an increasingly belligerent Chinese position on the South China Sea issue, heightened rivalry between the US and China, and a host of transborder non-traditional security threats, informality entrenched in ASEAN way remains the preferred modality in regional security governance. But while informality has had limited success in managing certain regional issues in the past, the pressure for ASEAN to recalibrate its informal processes and make the organization fit-for-purpose to deal with twenty-first century security challenges has become more urgent than ever.

Editorial: The Military

Editorial: The Military

The Increased Defection of North Koreans Following the Collapse of the Market Economy Due to the Kim Jong-Un Regime’s Military Reinforcement

Purpose: In this study, North Korea s recent military advancements including supersonic missile test launch and long-range missile test, and systematic, widespread and terrible human rights violations in North Korea including genocide, murder, enslavement, torture, detention, rape, forced abortion, sexual violence and discrimination based on politics, religion, race and gender, forced mobilization of residents, enforced disappearance, and inten-tional extension of starvation have been practiced, while the North Korean defectors have fled to South Korea every year in search of freedom, and the perception and attitude towards job satisfaction by gender and age have been analyzed for the police officers serving in the security police organization, which is recognized as the most closed police organization for police officers by age and gender. Based on which, it is intended to discuss policy measures to create an organization which can increase the job satisfaction of the security police with a new or-ganizational culture which matches the ever evolving military advancements in North Korea and the human rights crisis. Method: In this study, 100 police officers serving in the security department who have work experiences related to the North Korean defectors were surveyed based on the self-administration method by using the South Korean police officers as a group in 2020 in order to analyze the perception and attitude towards the job satisfaction based on gender and age targeting the police officers serving in the security police organization. Results: As a result of the analysis performed, across most of the questions with statistical significance for the gender of the security police managing the North Korean defectors due to the ever evolving military advance-ments in North Korea and the human rights crisis, the male security police officers turned out to have a relative more positive evaluation of the level of job satisfaction than the female police officers. Furthermore, in terms of age, the positive perception and attitude of the older age group is high across most of the questions, whereas the negative perception is relatively high for the age group in their 20s. Regarding the relationship between gender and age, it turned out that the males in their 50s and above and females in their 30s demonstrated the highest positive perception and attitude for the job satisfaction. Conclusion: In conclusion, first, the culture within the security police organization needs to be improved and will also need to be transformed into a security police organization which can fully demonstrate the potential and creativity of the security police through the fairness of personnel management. Second, it is very urgent to enact laws (rules) to ensure the organizational stability of the security police. Third, it is necessary to secure the equip-ment and professional manpower to acquire the security resources, and strengthen the specialized education. In order to be renewed as a new security police which responds to the rapidly changing security environment, the number of young security police officers needs to be increased, and the young police officers need to derive new ideas and be involved in collecting, analyzing, and producing information related to the various crimes (including multiple crimes) against the North Korean defectors toward becoming leaders on their own as they respond to police policies and decision-makers with the measures for the safe settlement of the North Korean defectors and crime prevention, whereby the job satisfaction of the security police will be further developed into a more progres-sive organizational culture.

The Perils of Estimating Disengagement Effects of Deadly Terrorist Attacks Utilizing Social Media Data

AbstractThis comment discusses the impact of social media rule enforcement protocols on research on online data sources. It argues that the conclusions of the article ‘Do Islamic State's Deadly Attacks Disengage, Deter, or Mobilize Supporters?’ concerning the recruitment effects of deadly attacks cannot be assumed to hold when considering the timing of Twitter account suspensions. It highlights four ways in which suspensions can confound evidence of demobilization despite the introduction of control variables and fixed-effects model specifications. All change the composition of the sample in four non-random ways. First, suspending connected Islamic State accounts may result in follower loss. Secondly, Twitter suspension procedures may be tied to account characteristics, such as follower accrual rates. Thirdly, suspended accounts that re-emerge introduce replication bias. Fourthly, account closure may reflect user movement to other platforms in response to changing security environments following deadly attacks. In conclusion, caution is advised when platform-introduced variation risks altering the sample composition in non-random ways.

Saltation Diffusion Penetration (SDP)

The purpose of this study is to summarize current terminology related to unconventional warfare. Based on extensive research, and on the experience gained over the past decades, the paper proposes a synthesized definition that is consistent with the philosophy of reinterpreting contemporary military conflicts. War, as part of human nature (N. Machiavelli) and as a social phenomenon has been marked by the constant development of strategies and technologies. If we trace the evolution of warfare in human history beginning with the bow and arrow, gunpowder and the cannon, through to the nuclear, laser and psychotronic weapons, we shall see that the only difference to counteracting lies in using the means and technologies for waging a war, which by no means changes its nature. It is purposeful organized violence utilizing the advances in science, engineering and technologies in order to counter other violence. And its ultimate goal has always been the achievement of external and internal political aims and distribution or allocation of resources. The main results obtained in this study can be summarized as follows—in the changing security environment, a result of globalization and the rapid development of communication technologies, facilitating the implementation of new forms and methods of destabilizing the target political regimes, understanding this security environment is a matter of political and social responsibility. The research method used in this paper is based on the so-called “Architectural Approach”, which is common for such cases and meets potential expectations.

Comparative Analysis of the Cyber Security Capabilities Maturity Models

Everything that is being done in the field of cybersecurity, cyber resilience and the fight against cybercrime can be focused on one term and that is the term cybersecurity capabilities. Cybersecurity capabilities demonstrate the ability to implement policies, standards, guidelines, and operational procedures for the security of information systems, networks, applications, and information. In turn, cybersecurity capabilities are a dynamic object that is built, maintained, developed, modified and adapted to the changing security environment. The dynamics of security capabilities require measuring the degree of their maturity and comparing them with the target levels. The article makes a comparative analysis of existing models for assessing the maturity of cybersecurity capabilities, thus creating an opportunity for a reasoned choice of such a method for the needs of specific assessment.

A versatile organisation: Mapping the military's core roles in a changing security environment

AbstractWhat roles are military institutions expected to play in today's rapidly changing security environment? How are they supposed to interact with the society they are tasked to protect? These questions have been posed by classical military sociologists as well as by a newer generation of scholars. Yet so far, a comprehensive mapping of the military's potential roles in contemporary society is missing. In this article we contribute to an update of this debate by providing a categorisation of the different roles and tasks that the military institution plays in current industrialised democratic states. We identify three core roles, each divided into subroles, by drawing on an extensive reading of 70 National White Papers and Security Strategies from 37 OECD member states: (collective) defence, collective security, and aid to the nation. We analyse how these roles and tasks influence recent configurations in civil-military relations. This study thereby contributes with: (1) a useful illustration of the military's shifting roles and tasks in contemporary society; (2) increased understandings of how the different roles impact civil-military relations and related to this; and (3) a practical starting point for further analyses of the military organisation's internal challenges related to its, at times, contradictory roles.

Air defense of the Baltic states. Looking toward the future

The article offers the discussion of the origins, current state and the future of air defence of the Baltic states. It tries to relate developments in the field of air defense to changes in security environment, and defence polices of the Baltic states. The article starts with a retrospection on origins and developments of air defence of the Baltic states before they joined NATO. Then it focuses on early years of integration with NATO Integrated Air Defense System and implications for air defence of the Baltic states related to changes in the security of the Euro-Atlantic region stemming from Russian aggressive actions. An assessment of current posture of air defence of the Baltic states serves as a starting point for the discussion on requirements for future developments, and predicting possible outcomes. The research uses unclassified, publicly available documents and analytical reports to provide background information for the discussion on the future of air defense of the Baltic states. The Baltic states are aware of the limitations of their air defense, and try to develop this capability within available resources. Changes to security environment after 2014 gave new impetus to the development of air defense of the Baltic states, both for the efforts undertaken by NATO and for national capability development.