Changes In External Forcing Research Articles

Beyond SWOT: A New Approach to Strategic Planning

Abstract: This article argues that the traditional SWOT analysis framework that has long been used by organizations for strategic planning is no longer sufficient in today's dynamic business environment. While SWOT provided value in the past by examining internal strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats, numerous studies have shown it has important limitations. A key critique is that SWOT focuses too narrowly on internal factors rather than understanding changing external forces. It also lacks structure to prioritize issues and typically does not translate cleanly into actionable strategies. Given these limitations, the article proposes that organizations should supplement or replace SWOT analysis with the PESTLE framework. PESTLE systematically analyzes the political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental macro-level factors impacting industries. It facilitates ongoing scanning of trends rather than a static snapshot. The article demonstrates how PESTLE analysis provides richer strategic context through examples in the tourism and healthcare industries. Making this transition allows organizations to develop more robust, resilient strategies aligned with dynamic macro environmental conditions.

Mass evolution of the Antarctic Peninsula over the last 2 decades from a joint Bayesian inversion

Abstract. The Antarctic Peninsula has become an increasingly important component of the Antarctic Ice Sheet mass budget over the last 2 decades, with mass losses generally increasing. However, due to the challenges presented by the topography and geometry of the region, there remain large variations in mass balance estimates from conventional approaches and in assessing the relative contribution of individual ice sheet processes. Here, we use a regionally optimized Bayesian hierarchical model joint inversion approach that combines data from multiple altimetry studies (ENVISAT, ICESat, CryoSat-2 swath), gravimetry (GRACE and GRACE-FO), and localized DEM differencing observations to solve for annual mass trends and their attribution to individual driving processes for the period 2003–2019. This is first time that such localized observations have been assimilated directly to estimate mass balance as part of a wider-scale regional assessment. The region experienced a mass imbalance rate of -19±1.1 Gt yr−1 between 2003 and 2019, predominantly driven by accelerations in ice dynamic mass losses in the first decade and sustained thereafter. Inter-annual variability is driven by surface processes, particularly in 2016 due to increased precipitation driven by an extreme El Niño, which temporarily returned the sector back to a state of positive mass balance. In the West Palmer Land and the English Coast regions, surface processes are a greater contributor to mass loss than ice dynamics in the early part of the 2010s. Our results show good agreement with conventional and other combination approaches, improving confidence in the robustness of mass trend estimates, and in turn, understanding of the region's response to changes in external forcing.

Manipulation planning under changing external forces

This paper presents a planner that enables robots to manipulate objects under changing external forces. Particularly, we focus on the scenario where a human applies a sequence of forceful operations, e.g. cutting and drilling, on an object that is held by a robot. The planner produces an efficient manipulation plan by choosing stable grasps on the object, by intelligently deciding when the robot should change its grasp on the object as the external forces change, and by choosing subsequent grasps such that they minimize the number of regrasps required in the long-term. Furthermore, as it switches from one grasp to the other, the planner solves the bimanual regrasping in the air by using an alternating sequence of bimanual and unimanual grasps. We also present a conic formulation to address force uncertainties inherent in human-applied external forces, using which the planner can robustly assess the stability of a grasp configuration without sacrificing planning efficiency. We provide a planner implementation on a dual-arm robot and present a variety of simulated and real human-robot experiments to show the performance of our planner.

Solving the Manufacturing Cell Design Problem Using Human Behavior-Based Algorithm Supported by Autonomous Search

The manufacturing Cell Design Problem (MCDP) is a classical optimization problem that finds application in lines of manufacture. The problem consist in distributing machines in cells, where the parts processed by each machine travels in the production process in such a way that productivity is improved. To solve the MCDP we employ a novel metaheuristic, which is inspired by actions, attitudes, and conducts that people normally have in life, named Human behavior-based optimization (HBBO). An individual try to evolve in life by trying his best in order to be a better human being with a brilliant future, successful at life, and be an example for others. We couple the HBBO with Autonomous Search (AS), which allows the modification of internal components of our approach when exposed to changing external forces and opportunities. We compare our HBBO-AS with the classic HBBO and an implementation using IRace, which is a software package that allows us to automatize the configuration of an algorithm through automatic configuration procedures. Additionally, in order to test the competitiveness of our results, we compare with other algorithms proved to perform well solving the MCDP. We illustrate experimental results, where the proposed approach is able to obtain interesting performance and robustness in the 125 well-known instances of the MCDP.

Innovation, Entrepreneurial Orientation, and the Survival of the 21st Century Tech Organization

The tech markets demand ever-increasing levels of productivity, quality, and innovation to stay competitive. Research has shown that the types of organizations that survive and thrive in such environments have more of an entrepreneurial orientation. That means they embrace long-term, goal-oriented management and an organic organizational structure that is able to respond faster to changing external forces.

Multidecadal Trajectory of Riverine Nitrogen and Phosphorus Dynamics in Rural Catchments

AbstractThe long‐term evolution of nutrient dynamics in rivers under changing external forcings, termed hereafter trajectory, is influenced by local human activities and regional climatic variations. Here we investigate nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) dynamics in seven mesoscale agricultural catchments (median size 800 km2) of western France from seasonal to multidecadal time scales (1970–2016). Results show that, in these catchments dominated by shallow groundwater, long‐term nitrate exports responded to variations of the agricultural N surplus with time lags of approximately 10 years. Presence of legacy N storage, related to the catchments' denitrification capacity, was found to increase response times. In contrast, P trends were predominantly controlled by decreasing point source emissions during the study period, and P dynamics were influenced by in‐stream retention/remobilization processes that hampered precise quantification of land‐to‐river diffuse transport processes. Occurrence of interannual climate variations during three 5‐ to 10‐year dry‐wet cycles, influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation, affected N and P dynamics with persistent interannual hysteresis patterns among catchment and years. Thus, water quality assessment programs should cover at least five years to decipher the effect of mitigation measures from climate variations.

Implikacije razvoja savremenih tehnologija na sektor turizma Republike Srbije

Tourism is often defined as an economic sector that deals with innovation and production of tourism products and services. It is a very complex economic sector, since tourism products and stakeholders are constantly changing due to changing external forces. Therefore, development and progress of information and communication technology have had an enormous impact on tourism as well as on other sectors of the economy associated with it. Over the years, the use of modern technology in tourism has been expanded to provide a wider range of products and services to tourists all over the world, and is a key determinant of competitiveness in this sector. The subject of this paper is a look at the implications of modern technology for the tourism sector of the Republic of Serbia and the ways in which it contributes to increasing competitiveness. The analysis relies on the World Economic Forum methodology for the presentation of competitiveness of the travel and tourism sector, namely the Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index. The aim of the paper is to examine the degree of contribution of ICT readiness pillar to the competitiveness of the tourism sector in the Republic of Serbia.

What Should Oral Health Professionals Know in 2040: Executive Summary.

The "Advancing Dental Education in the 21st Century" project assesses current status and trends to prepare for the future. Section 3 of the project asks what knowledge and skills should dental and advanced dental education learners have to provide dental care in 2040 and how should educators be preparing them. This executive summary of five background articles in this section focuses on predoctoral education, advanced dental education, the provision of medical services within dental practice, the incorporation of oral health services into primary care and medical practice, and interprofessional education and practice. The changing environment and external forces are presented along with their implications for advancing dental education. These forces include changes in population characteristics (e.g., demographics, disease prevalence, health disparities, consumerism), treatment needs and modalities, care delivery, science and technology, educational methods, and medical and dental integration. Future oral health professionals (OHPs) will care for more diverse patient populations, older patients with complex medical and dental needs, and relatively dentally healthy younger cohorts who require fewer complex restorative and prosthodontic treatments. Increasing integration of medical and oral health education and patient care will require OHPs to have more medical knowledge and to practice in intra- and interprofessional teams. OHPs increasingly will be providing patient-centered care as employees in large group practices, health care settings, and safety net clinics with expanded types of OHPs and improved materials and technology. Educators need to implement innovative curricula and educational methods to prepare for and adapt to the disruptive changes that lie ahead.

Are muscle activation patterns altered during shod and barefoot running with a forefoot footfall pattern?

ABSTRACTThis study aimed to investigate the activation of lower limb muscles during barefoot and shod running with forefoot or rearfoot footfall patterns. Nine habitually shod runners were asked to run straight for 20 m at self-selected speed. Ground reaction forces and thigh and shank muscle surface electromyographic (EMG) were recorded. EMG outcomes (EMG intensity [iEMG], latency between muscle activation and ground reaction force, latency between muscle pairs and co-activation index between muscle pairs) were compared across condition (shod and barefoot), running cycle epochs (pre-strike, strike, propulsion) and footfall (rearfoot and forefoot) by ANOVA. Condition affected iEMG at pre-strike epoch. Forefoot and rearfoot strike patterns induced different EMG activation time patterns affecting co-activation index for pairs of thigh and shank muscles. All these timing changes suggest that wearing shoes or not is less important for muscle activation than the way runners strike the foot on the ground. In conclusion, the guidance for changing external forces applied on lower limbs should be pointed to the question of rearfoot or forefoot footfall patterns.

Termini of calving glaciers as self-organized critical systems

Calving margins are highly sensitive to changes in climate and glacier terminus geometry. Numerical modelling suggests that calving glacier termini are self-organized critical systems that are fluctuating between states of advance and retreat. Over the next century, one of the largest contributions to sea level rise will come from ice sheets and glaciers calving ice into the ocean1. Factors controlling the rapid and nonlinear variations in calving fluxes are poorly understood, and therefore difficult to include in prognostic climate-forced land-ice models. Here we analyse globally distributed calving data sets from Svalbard, Alaska (USA), Greenland and Antarctica in combination with simulations from a first-principles, particle-based numerical calving model to investigate the size and inter-event time of calving events. We find that calving events triggered by the brittle fracture of glacier ice are governed by the same power-law distributions as avalanches in the canonical Abelian sandpile model2. This similarity suggests that calving termini behave as self-organized critical systems that readily flip between states of sub-critical advance and super-critical retreat in response to changes in climate and geometric conditions. Observations of sudden ice-shelf collapse and tidewater glacier retreat in response to gradual warming of their environment3 are consistent with a system fluctuating around its critical point in response to changing external forcing. We propose that self-organized criticality provides a yet unexplored framework for investigations into calving and projections of sea level rise.

The coupled atmosphere–chemistry–ocean model SOCOL-MPIOM

Abstract. The newly developed atmosphere–ocean–chemistry–climate model SOCOL-MPIOM is presented by demonstrating the influence of chemistry–climate interactions on the climate state and the variability. Therefore, we compare pre-industrial control simulations with (CHEM) and without (NOCHEM) interactive chemistry. In general, the influence of the chemistry on the mean state and the variability is small and mainly restricted to the stratosphere and mesosphere. The atmospheric dynamics mainly differ in polar regions, with slightly stronger polar vortices in the austral and boreal winter, respectively. The strengthening of the vortex is related to larger stratospheric temperature gradients, which are attributed to a parameterisation of the absorption of ozone and oxygen in different wavelength intervals, which is considered in the version with interactive chemistry only. A second reason for the temperature differences between CHEM and NOCHEM is related to diurnal variations in the ozone concentrations in the higher atmosphere, which are missing in NOCHEM. Furthermore, stratospheric water vapour concentrations substantially differ between the two experiments, but their effect on temperature is small. In both setups, the simulated intensity and variability of the northern polar vortex is inside the range of present-day observations. Additionally, the performance of SOCOL-MPIOM under changing external forcings is assessed for the period 1600–2000 using an ensemble of simulations. In the industrial period from 1850 onward SOCOL-MPIOM overestimates the global mean surface air temperature increase in comparison to observational data sets. Sensitivity simulations show that this overestimation can be attributed to a combination of factors: the solar forcing reconstruction, the simulated ozone changes, and incomplete aerosol effects and land use changes.

Dansgaard–Oeschger events: bifurcation points in the climate system

Abstract. Dansgaard–Oeschger events are a prominent mode of variability in the records of the last glacial cycle. Various prototype models have been proposed to explain these rapid climate fluctuations, and no agreement has emerged on which may be the more correct for describing the palaeoclimatic signal. In this work, we assess the bimodality of the system, reconstructing the topology of the multi-dimensional attractor over which the climate system evolves. We use high-resolution ice core isotope data to investigate the statistical properties of the climate fluctuations in the period before the onset of the abrupt change. We show that Dansgaard–Oeschger events have weak early warning signals if the ensemble of events is considered. We find that the statistics are consistent with the switches between two different climate equilibrium states in response to a changing external forcing (e.g. solar, ice sheets), either forcing directly the transition or pacing it through stochastic resonance. These findings are most consistent with a model that associates Dansgaard–Oeschger with changing boundary conditions, and with the presence of a bifurcation point.

The climate in the Baltic Sea region during the last millennium simulated with a regional climate model

Abstract. Variability and long-term climate change in the Baltic Sea region is investigated for the pre-industrial period of the last millennium. For the first time dynamical downscaling covering the complete millennium is conducted with a regional climate model in this area. As a result of changing external forcing conditions, the model simulation shows warm conditions in the first centuries followed by a gradual cooling until ca. 1700 before temperature increases in the last centuries. This long-term evolution, with a Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and a Little Ice Age (LIA), is in broad agreement with proxy-based reconstructions. However, the timing of warm and cold events is not captured at all times. We show that the regional response to the global climate anomalies is to a strong degree modified by the large-scale circulation in the model. In particular, we find that a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) simulated during MCA contributes to enhancing winter temperatures and precipitation in the region while a negative NAO index in the LIA reduces them. In a second step, the regional ocean model (RCO-SCOBI) is used to investigate the impact of atmospheric changes onto the Baltic Sea for two 100 yr time slices representing the MCA and the LIA. Besides the warming of the Baltic Sea, the water becomes fresher at all levels during the MCA. This is induced by increased runoff and stronger westerly winds. Moreover, the oxygen concentrations in the deep layers are slightly reduced during the MCA. Additional sensitivity studies are conducted to investigate the impact of even higher temperatures and increased nutrient loads. The presented experiments suggest that changing nutrient loads may be more important determining oxygen depletion than changes in temperature or dynamic feedbacks.

THE IMPACT OF ENVIRONMENTAL UNCERTAINTY DIMENSIONS ON ORGANISATIONAL INNOVATIVENESS: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON SMEs

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of factors of environmental uncertainty on the innovativeness of small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Innovativeness is widely accepted as an important characteristic for firm competitiveness and it has been studied by both researchers as well as business managers. Environmental uncertainty is a measure of the complexity of changing external forces faced by an organisation and it crucially impacts the responses of organisations in order to stay competitive. Based on approaches in existing literature, this study conceptualises environmental uncertainty comprised three separate dimensions — competitive intensity, market/demand turbulence, technological turbulence. Data for the study were collected from 156 SMEs in Turkey. SMEs are regarded as an important ingredient in the economic growth of nations and especially so in developing nations such as Turkey. The findings of the study reveal that market/demand turbulence and technological turbulence have a positive effect on the innovativeness of SMEs. Interestingly and contrary to popular belief, competitive intensity was not found to have significant effect on an SME's innovativeness. The implication of the results from this research is that the degree of organisational innovativeness for SMEs tends to increase and therefore should be supported in environments with greater technological and market/demand turbulence. This research makes an important contribution to the developing body of innovation literature and provides directions for managers and researchers in influencing innovativeness of firms.

A Simple Empirical Model for Decadal Climate Prediction

Abstract Decadal climate prediction is a challenging aspect of climate research. It has been and will be tackled by various modeling groups. This study proposes a simple empirical forecasting system for the near-surface temperature that can be used as a benchmark for climate predictions obtained from atmosphere–ocean GCMs (AOGCMs). It is assumed that the temperature time series can be decomposed into components related to external forcing and internal variability. The considered external forcing consists of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Separation of the two components is achieved by using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) twentieth-century integrations. Temperature anomalies due to changing external forcing are described by a linear regression onto the forcing. The future evolution of the external forcing that is needed for predictions is approximated by a linear extrapolation of the forcing prior to the initial time. Temperature anomalies owing to the internal variability are described by an autoregressive model. An evaluation of hindcast experiments shows that the empirical model has a cross-validated correlation skill of 0.84 and a cross-validated rms error of 0.12 K in hindcasting global-mean temperature anomalies 10 years ahead.

WE-C-203-01: Workforce Study Report

The AAPM has been engaged in a wide‐ranging study with the Center for Health Workforce Studies at the School of Public Health, University at Albany, New York to assess the impact of changing internal and external environmental forces on the medical physics workforce. The major objectives of the research conducted during 2009–2010 are to: 1. Analyze the roles, responsibilities, education, and career paths of medical physicists. 2. Identify financial and other factors which might affect the establishment and maintenance of accredited residency programs that will be required in 2014 for the training of medical physicists seeking certification by the American Board of Radiology (ABR). 3. Develop accurate projections of the future supply and demand for medical physicists. 4. Suggest strategic options for the AAPM and other stakeholders to assure an appropriate supply of adequately trained and qualified medical physicists. The investigation has included an extensive review of historical data pertaining to medical physicists, interviews with professional stakeholders, a survey of currently practicing U.S. medical physicists and comprehensive modeling activities to better understand the implications of the new ABR education and training requirements. In this Workshop we describe the various methodologies used to acquire workforce‐related data and present conclusions derived from the analyses. This information should facilitate the development of effective strategies to address impending supply and demand issues for the medical physics profession. Research sponsored by the American Association of Physicists in Medicine

Review of the formulation of present‐generation stratospheric chemistry‐climate models and associated external forcings

The goal of the Chemistry‐Climate Model Validation (CCMVal) activity is to improve understanding of chemistry‐climate models (CCMs) through process‐oriented evaluation and to provide reliable projections of stratospheric ozone and its impact on climate. An appreciation of the details of model formulations is essential for understanding how models respond to the changing external forcings of greenhouse gases and ozone‐depleting substances, and hence for understanding the ozone and climate forecasts produced by the models participating in this activity. Here we introduce and review the models used for the second round (CCMVal‐2) of this intercomparison, regarding the implementation of chemical, transport, radiative, and dynamical processes in these models. In particular, we review the advantages and problems associated with approaches used to model processes of relevance to stratospheric dynamics and chemistry. Furthermore, we state the definitions of the reference simulations performed, and describe the forcing data used in these simulations. We identify some developments in chemistry‐climate modeling that make models more physically based or more comprehensive, including the introduction of an interactive ocean, online photolysis, troposphere‐stratosphere chemistry, and non‐orographic gravity‐wave deposition as linked to tropospheric convection. The relatively new developments indicate that stratospheric CCM modeling is becoming more consistent with our physically based understanding of the atmosphere.

Possible effects of climate change on estuarine nutrient fluxes: a case study in the highly nutrified Schelde estuary (Belgium, The Netherlands)

Global change models predict effects of climate change on hydrological regimes at the continental scale in Europe. The aim of this study was to gain a better understanding of the possible effect of changing external forcing conditions on the functioning of estuarine ecosystems. In densely populated areas, anthropogenic nutrient enrichment and consequent alteration of nutrient biogeochemical cycles have already had a big impact on these ecosystems. The average yearly discharge of the upper Schelde estuary increased nearly threefold over the period 1996–2000, from 28 m 3 s −1 in 1996 to 73 m 3 s −1 in 2000. The continuously rising discharge conditions over the five-year period were used as a reference situation for possible future effects of climate on ecological functioning through increase of discharge. At high discharges, nutrient (NH 4 +, NO 3 −, dissolved silica and PO 4 3−) concentrations in the tidal fresh- and brackish water showed a decrease of up to 50% while total discharged nutrient loadings increased up to 100%. Opposite effects of increasing discharge on NH 4 +, NO 3 − and dissolved silica concentrations in summer and winter, resulted in the flattening out of seasonal cycles for these nutrients. Under high discharge conditions, silica uptake by diatom communities was lowered. Dissolved silica loadings to the coastal area increased concurrently with total silica loadings upstream. Salt intrusion to the marine parts of the estuary decreased. This resulted in a downstream shift of the salinity gradient, with lower salinity observed near the mouth. As a result, TDIN, NO 3 − and dissolved silica concentrations doubled at the mouth of the estuary.

Possible effects of climate change on estuarine nutrient fluxes: a case study in the highly nutrified Schelde estuary (Belgium, The Netherlands)

Global change models predict effects of climate change on hydrological regimes at the continental scale in Europe. The aim of this study was to gain a better understanding of the possible effect of changing external forcing conditions on the functioning of estuarine ecosystems. In densely populated areas, anthropogenic nutrient enrichment and consequent alteration of nutrient biogeochemical cycles have already had a big impact on these ecosystems. The average yearly discharge of the upper Schelde estuary increased nearly threefold over the period 1996–2000, from 28 m3 s−1 in 1996 to 73 m3 s−1 in 2000. The continuously rising discharge conditions over the five-year period were used as a reference situation for possible future effects of climate on ecological functioning through increase of discharge. At high discharges, nutrient (NH4+, NO3−, dissolved silica and PO43−) concentrations in the tidal fresh- and brackish water showed a decrease of up to 50% while total discharged nutrient loadings increased up to 100%. Opposite effects of increasing discharge on NH4+, NO3− and dissolved silica concentrations in summer and winter, resulted in the flattening out of seasonal cycles for these nutrients. Under high discharge conditions, silica uptake by diatom communities was lowered. Dissolved silica loadings to the coastal area increased concurrently with total silica loadings upstream. Salt intrusion to the marine parts of the estuary decreased. This resulted in a downstream shift of the salinity gradient, with lower salinity observed near the mouth. As a result, TDIN, NO3− and dissolved silica concentrations doubled at the mouth of the estuary.

Assessing the Relative Roles of Initial and Boundary Conditions in Interannual to Decadal Climate Predictability

The relative importance of initial conditions and boundary conditions in interannual to decadal climate predictability is addressed. A simple framework is developed in which (i) ensembles of climate model simulations with changing external forcing can be measured against climatology to get an estimate of the timescale on which changing boundary conditions can provide predictive skill, and (ii) the rate of spread of ensembles of simulations with small perturbations to the initial conditions can be measured against climatology to assess the timescale at which the information in the initial conditions is degraded by chaotic error growth. A preliminary test of the method on a limited number of climate model simulations is presented.