Changes In Vertical Velocity Research Articles

The Impact of an Antarctic Circumpolar Current Meander on Air‐Sea Interaction and Water Subduction

AbstractStanding meanders along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) have been shown to be regions of elevated eddy variability, meridional heat transport, and vertical exchange. In this study, we investigate the influence of a standing meander south of Australia on air‐sea heat fluxes, upper ocean structure, and subduction in the 1/10° ACCESS‐OM2 ocean‐sea ice model forced by the JRA55 atmospheric reanalysis. We track the model's Subantarctic and Polar Fronts based on their jet and water mass structure, and produce composites of thermodynamical and dynamical properties of the meander in relaxed and flexed states. The standing meander induces trough‐to‐crest variations in surface heat flux, mixed layer depth (MLD), wind stress curl, vertical velocity, and subduction. At the crests, the ocean loses heat and the mixed layer is deeper; at the troughs, the ocean gains heat and the mixed layer is shallower. Wind stress curl, vertical velocity, and subduction change sign on entering and exiting crests and troughs. Vertical velocity due to the curvature of the meander is an order of magnitude larger than Ekman vertical velocity. The poleward excursion of Polar Front meander crests extends subduction to Antarctic Intermediate Water density classes. Finally, flexing of the meander enhances both air‐sea exchange and vertical velocity. The results show that standing meanders of the ACC influence the distribution and magnitude of air‐sea fluxes of heat and momentum and exchange between the surface and interior ocean.

Projected changes in extreme daily precipitation linked to changes in precipitable water and vertical velocity in CMIP6 models

Understanding the drivers of precipitation and their changes in a non-stationary climate is crucial for effective climate adaptation and water resource management, as it helps us anticipate and respond to shifting precipitation patterns and their impacts. Here, analysing simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) we show that the conditional probability of extreme daily precipitation given joint extremes of two drivers (precipitable water and vertical velocity) will be stable in a 3 °C warmer future. Consistent with earlier work, we find that the near-global increase in precipitable water (thermodynamic influence) is the baseline for changes in extreme precipitation, which are modulated by changes in vertical velocity (dynamic influence). Thus, in regions where vertical velocity increases, the effect of the two drivers is additive and their changes contribute to an increase in extreme precipitation. The changes of the two drivers are opposite where vertical velocity decreases, resulting in only small increases in extreme precipitation or even a decrease. Furthermore, we reveal that there are moderate changes in the dependence between the drivers, which are larger over the ocean than over landmasses, but they contribute only little to the overall changes in extreme precipitation. We conclude that the use of two very simple drivers that are readily available from climate models can be of great utility for evaluating precipitation extremes in models and understanding their projected changes.

The combined influence of west Pacific subtropical high and tropical cyclones over the northwest Pacific on Indian summer monsoon rainfall

AbstractWe examined the interrelationship between the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), the west Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western north Pacific (WNP) Ocean during the peak monsoon season in 1951–2019. When WNP TCs are inactive (active), there is a noticeable 10° westward (eastward) shift observed along with intensification (weakening) of the WPSH. The WPSH and WNP TC activities are divided into four categories—an eastward shift of WPSH with active TCs (EA) and inactive TCs (EI), and a westward shift of WPSH with active TCs (WA) and inactive TCs (WI)—in order to investigate the combined influence of the WPSH and WNP TCs on ISMR during non‐El Niño–Southern Oscillation (non‐ENSO), El Niño, and La Niña phases. In the EA non‐ENSO cases, a surplus (deficit) rainfall was noticed over central (southern peninsular) India as a result of moisture convergence (low convective available potential energy, abnormal moisture divergence and downdraft); however, the rainfall is above normal over the Indian subcontinent. During the EI non‐ENSO case, an excess (deficit) regional rainfall activity was observed over east‐central India and parts of north India (southern peninsular India) through regional changes in atmospheric circulations and midtropospheric vertical velocity. In contrast, in WI (WA) non‐ENSO cases, the majority of India (southern peninsular and northeast India) experiences excessive precipitation while east‐central India (east and west central India) undergoes a deficit rainfall. This pattern is consistent with the spatial distribution of moisture flux convergence, convective available potential energy, and midtropospheric vertical velocity. In the case of non‐ENSO, the westward shift of the WPSH associated with inactive TCs is one of the favourable conditions for ISMR. In general, the effect of an eastward (westward) shift of the WPSH along with more (less) TCs during the non‐ENSO case is favourable to ISMR. On the other hand, rainfall patterns during ENSO are significantly associated with the circulation changes teleconnected to El Niño and La Niña conditions.

Kilometer-scale global warming simulations and active sensors reveal changes in tropical deep convection

Changes in tropical deep convection with global warming are a leading source of uncertainty for future climate projections. A comparison of the responses of active sensor measurements of cloud ice to interannual variability and next-generation global storm-resolving model (also known as k-scale models) simulations to global warming shows similar changes for events with the highest column-integrated ice. The changes reveal that the ice loading decreases outside the most active convection but increases at a rate of several percent per Kelvin surface warming in the most active convection. Disentangling thermodynamic and vertical velocity changes shows that the ice signal is strongly modulated by structural changes of the vertical wind field towards an intensification of strong convective updrafts with warming, suggesting that changes in ice loading are strongly influenced by changes in convective velocities, as well as a path toward extracting information about convective velocities from observations.

Overburden 4D seismic analysis: Influence of stress and pore-pressure changes accounting for elastic contrast between a reservoir and its anisotropic surrounding rocks

Time-lapse (4D) seismic data analysis is widely used to monitor producing hydrocarbon or CO2 storage reservoirs and their surroundings. The influence of potentially significant undrained pore-pressure changes around depleting (or injected) reservoirs appears to be neglected in most previous studies. The 4D seismic response in the overburden depends on the stress changes and strains induced by the reservoir. These alterations may challenge stable infill drilling and well integrity. We have used anisotropic static elastic moduli from laboratory measurements for two different field shales to predict stress changes and strains in the surroundings of a depleting reservoir through geomechanical modeling. These mechanical changes are used to quantify undrained pore-pressure changes using anisotropic poroelastic theory constrained with Skempton parameters. Finally, an empirical rock-physics model quantifies the impact of these poroelastic changes on vertical velocity changes and time strains. This model explicitly quantifies the individual contributions to vertical velocity changes from undrained pore pressure, mean stress, and shear stress above (and below) the depleting reservoir. We find that a stiffer surrounding rock exhibits significantly larger vertical time strains and time shifts in the overburden as compared with softer surrounding rocks because of promoted arching. Undrained overburden pore-pressure changes significantly contribute to overburden velocity changes and time shifts. Ignoring anisotropy in the Skempton parameters can lead to overestimating the overburden undrained pore pressure and time shifts after reservoir depletion. The anisotropy in static stiffnesses significantly impacts the dynamic changes in the vertical direction, and the dynamic changes are particularly pronounced in the vicinity of the reservoir. We find how a tailored rock-physics model can link 4D seismic data and geomechanics to separate stress, strain, and pore-pressure changes — all essential for optimizing drilling and production.

Research on path planning for autonomous vehicle based on Frenet system

Autonomous vehicles drive according to the expected trajectory to achieve horizontal and longitudinal control of the vehicle. Therefore, the research on path planning is of great significance. This paper mainly analyzes the road behavior of the car, studies the five-fold polynomial algorithm model, simulates the path trajectory of different behavior, and analyzes the rate of change of lateral and vertical velocity and lateral and vertical acceleration under different behaviors, to get the car prediction time. Using the optimal control theory, the linear space expression is established to study the variation of transverse velocity, transverse velocity and transverse deflection angle, and the expression of the system to achieve the steady-state response is given. The simulation results are compared and analyzed to find out the optimal path of different scenes and different driving behaviors, which provides theoretical basis for real vehicle debugging.

Influence of mesoscale eddies on the cross-shelf phosphate transport of the Kuroshio Current northeast of Taiwan: A modeling study

The Kuroshio Current flows northeastward along the East China Sea (ECS) shelf break, carrying a large amount of nutrients, and is thus an important source of nutrients for the ECS. The mainstream and transport of the Kuroshio Current are significantly affected by mesoscale eddies. However, the influence of mesoscale eddies on the Kuroshio nutrient input into the ECS is unknown. We add constructed cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies to a hydrodynamic model to explore the influence of mesoscale eddies on cross-shelf Kuroshio phosphate input into the ECS. This model suitably reproduces the fate of mesoscale eddies and the variation in the Kuroshio Current during eddy-current interactions. The simulation results reveal that during the strong interaction between the Kuroshio Current and mesoscale eddy east of Taiwan, the cyclonic eddy reduces the on-shelf phosphate flux, while the anticyclonic eddy increases the Kuroshio phosphate input to the ECS. When the anticyclonic eddy moves to the Okinawa Trough, it reduces the Kuroshio phosphate input into the ECS.These basic features are not sensitive to the initial latitude of the eddy center east of Taiwan. The change in cross-shelf phosphate flux is caused by the changes in cross-shelf velocity and phosphate concentration along the shelf. Momentum balance analyses suggest that the change in cross-shelf velocity is mainly caused by the change in the pressure gradient term due to eddy-induced changes in sea surface height in the horizontal direction and isotherm tilting in the vertical direction. The advection-diffusion equation analysis shows that the change in phosphate concentration along the shelf is attributed to changes in the upper horizontal advection and lower vertical advection of phosphate, which are induced by the upper phosphate change and vertical velocity change along the shelf, respectively. This study has important implications for the possible response of the ECS ecosystem to mesoscale eddies that are partly triggered by enhanced typhoons east of Taiwan under global warming.

Increase in Intraseasonal Rainfall Driven by the Arabian Sea Warming in Recent Decades

AbstractIntraseasonal oscillation (ISO) is the dominant variability during the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). In this study, it is found that ISOs accompanying intraseasonal rainfall are substantially enhanced over the northeastern Arabian Sea (AS) in the past three decades. The rise in rainfall agrees with the variation in moisture loading. The strengthening of the wind convergence in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) triggers the changes in vertical velocity, intensifying the advection of background moisture by the intraseasonal vertical velocity, which contributes the most to intensified moisture supply over the northeastern AS. In addition, the faster warming of the AS and the increasing cyclonic vorticity associated with the poleward movement of the summer mean low‐level jet are responsible for the increasing trend in PBL convergence. This recent intensified intraseasonal rainfall over the AS has contributed to the trend in the mean and extremes over the central‐western parts of the Indian subcontinent.

Decreased Upward Vertical Movement for Fastballs After Ulnar Collateral Ligament Reconstruction in Major League Baseball Pitchers

PurposeTo analyze the velocity and movement of the 4-seam fastball, curve, and slider thrown before and after ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction (UCLR) in Major League Baseball pitchers using PITCHf/x data.MethodsVelocity and movement data of the 4-seam fastball, curve, and slider were collected for 3 time frames (12-24 months before the date of UCLR as an uninjured baseline, 12-24 months after the date of UCLR, and 24-36 months after the date of UCLR). Pitchers were separated into 3 age groups (<26, 26 to 31, and >31 years). A paired t-test for means was used to assess mean differences between 2 time periods and a generalized linear model, with time-dependent covariance structure and age group as a covariate, was used to determine differences across time. All analyses were performed using SAS, version 9.4.ResultsVertical movement of the 4-seam fastball decreased in the 24 to 36 months’ postoperative time frame, compared with 12 to 24 months’ preoperatively (9.46 to 9.14 inches, P = .032). Movement decreases in the 4-seam fastball were not age-related. Velocity did not significantly change for any pitch and movement did not change for the slider or curve pitches.ConclusionsFollowing UCLR, Major League Baseball pitchers experienced no changes in horizontal or vertical movement or velocity of the curve or slider in either time frame. Decreased upward vertical movement of the fastball occurred after UCLR at final follow-up, but no change was observed in velocity. Similar trends in pitch movement and velocity effects were observed regardless of age.Level of EvidenceIV, case series.

Why has Precipitation Increased in the Last 120 Years in Norway?

AbstractWe use a data set with daily precipitation observations from 55 homogeneity‐tested stations in Norway from 1900 to 2019 available from MET‐Norway. These observations show that precipitation in Norway has increased by 19% since 1900. Notably, over half of the overall increase occurred within the decade of 1980–1990 and is happening across all precipitation rates. To examine possible mechanisms behind the precipitation increase, we use a diagnostic model to separate the effects of changes in vertical velocity, temperature and relative humidity. We use daily vertical velocity, near‐surface temperature and relative humidity from two reanalysis products, ERA‐20C and 20th Century Reanalysis. The model‐based precipitation correlates significantly with the observed precipitation on an annual timescale (r &gt; 0.9), as well as captures the trend in all reanalysis products. The diagnostic model indicates that the variability in vertical velocity chiefly determines the interannual variability and long‐term trend. The trend in vertical velocities contributes to more than 80% of the total modeled trend in precipitation between 1900 and 2019. However, over the last two decades (1995–2015), changes in temperature and relative humidity are the main contributors to the modeled trend in precipitation.

Future changes in extreme precipitation over the San Francisco Bay Area: Dependence on atmospheric river and extratropical cyclone events

Extreme precipitation poses a major challenge for local governments, including the City and County of San Francisco, California, as flooding can damage and destroy infrastructure and property. As the climate continues to warm, reliable future precipitation projections are needed to provide the best possible information to decision makers. However, future changes in the magnitude of extreme precipitation are uncertain, as current state-of-the-art global climate models are typically run at relatively coarse horizontal resolutions that require the use of convective parameterization and have difficulty simulating observed extreme rainfall rates. Here, we performed ensembles of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations to investigate how five historically impactful extreme precipitation events over the San Francisco Bay Area could change if similar events occurred in future climates. We found that changes in storm-total precipitation depend strongly on storm type. Precipitation associated with an atmospheric river (AR) accompanied by an extratropical cyclone (ETC) is projected to increase at a rate exceeding (by up to 1.5 times) the theoretical Clausius Clapeyron scaling of 6–7% per °C warming. On the other hand, future precipitation changes are weak or negative for events characterized by an AR only, despite increases in precipitable water and integrated vapor transport that are similar to those of the co-occurring AR and ETC events. The differences in the sign of future precipitation change between AR-only events and co-occurring AR and ETC events is instead linked with changes in mid-tropospheric vertical velocity. Given that the majority of observed ARs are associated with an ETC, this research has important implications for future precipitation impacts over the Bay Area, as it indicates that storm-total precipitation associated with the most common type of storm event may increase by up to 26–37% in 2100 relative to historical.

Wake Vortex Effects due to Horizontal Crossing at Any Angle

The effects of wake crossing at any horizontal angle, airspeed, and altitude are considered, focusing on crossing at cruise speeds at altitudes close to the tropopause. The roll effect is considered in two cases: 1) specification of the aileron deflection as a function of time that exactly compensates for the rolling moment induced on the crossing aircraft by the wake of the leading aircraft so that the crossing aircraft is undisturbed; and 2) in the case when the available roll control power is not sufficient to compensate completely for the wake induced rolling moment, the resulting roll rate and bank angle of the crossing aircraft are calculated as a function of time. The distinction between the two cases is made by a safe separating distance or safe separating time: beyond which, roll compensation 1) is possible; and below which, rolling motion 2) is unavoidable. Besides the roll acceleration, roll rate, and bank angle for the roll axis, the effects of wake crossing are also considered for the vertical axis, including the load factor, vertical velocity, and altitude change. The theory applies to any pair of aircraft and indicates the dependence on aircraft parameters, flight, and atmospheric conditions.

Estimation of peak vertical velocity and relative load changes by subjective measures in weightlifting movements.

To investigate the ability of the OMNI-RES (0–10) scale to estimate velocity and loading changes during sets to failure in the hang power clean (HPC) exercise. Eleven recreationally resistance-trained males (28.5 ± 3.5 years) with an average one-repetition maximum (1RM) value of 1.1 ± 0.07 kg body mass-1 in HPC, were assessed on five separate days with 48 hours of rest between sessions. After determining the 1RM value, participants performed four sets to self-determined failure with the following relative loading ranges: 60% < 70%, 70 < 80%, 80 < 90% and > 90%. The peak vertical velocity (PVV), and Rating of Perceived Exertion (RPE) were measured for every repetition of each set. The RPE expressed after the first repetition (RPE-1) and when the highest value of PVV was achieved during the set (RPE-max) were similar and significantly lower than the RPE associated with a 5% (RPE-5%) and 10% (RPE-10%) drop in PVV. In addition, the RPE produced at failure was similar to RPE-5% only for the heaviest range (≥ 90%). Furthermore, RPE-1 was useful to distinguish loading zones between the four assessed ranges (60 < 70%, vs. 70 < 80%, vs. 80 < 90%, vs. ≥ 90%). The RPE seems to be useful to identify PVV changes (maximal, 5% and 10% drop) during continuous sets to self-determined failure and to distinguish 10% loading zone increments, from 60 to 100% of 1RM in the HPC exercise.

A climatology of trade-wind cumulus cold pools and their link to mesoscale cloud organization

Abstract. We present a climatology of trade cumulus cold pools and their associated changes in surface weather, vertical velocity and cloudiness based on more than 10 years of in situ and remote sensing data from the Barbados Cloud Observatory. Cold pools are identified by abrupt drops in surface temperature, and the mesoscale organization pattern is classified by a neural network algorithm based on Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 16 (GOES-16) Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) infrared images. We find cold pools to be ubiquitous in the winter trades – they are present about 7.8 % of the time and occur on 73 % of days. Cold pools with stronger temperature drops (ΔT) are associated with deeper clouds, stronger precipitation, downdrafts and humidity drops, stronger wind gusts and updrafts at the onset of their front, and larger cloud cover compared to weaker cold pools, which agrees well with the conceptual picture of cold pools. The rain duration in the front is the best predictor of ΔT and explains 36 % of its variability. The mesoscale organization pattern has a strong influence on the occurrence frequency of cold pools. Fish has the largest cold-pool fraction (12.8 % of the time), followed by Flowers and Gravel (9.9 % and 7.2 %) and lastly Sugar (1.6 %). Fish cold pools are also significantly stronger and longer-lasting compared to the other patterns, while Gravel cold pools are associated with significantly stronger updrafts and deeper cloud-top height maxima. The diel cycle of the occurrence frequency of Gravel, Flowers, and Fish can explain a large fraction of the diel cycle in the cold-pool occurrence as well as the pronounced extension of the diel cycle of shallow convection into the early afternoon by cold pools. Overall, we find cold-pool periods to be ∼ 90 % cloudier relative to the average winter trades. Also, the wake of cold pools is characterized by above-average cloudiness, suggesting that mesoscale arcs enclosing broad clear-sky areas are an exception. A better understanding of how cold pools interact with and shape their environment could therefore be valuable to understand cloud cover variability in the trades.

Varied midlatitude shortwave cloud radiative responses to Southern Hemisphere circulation shifts

AbstractChanges in midlatitude clouds as a result of shifts in general circulation patterns are widely thought to be a potential source of radiative feedbacks onto the climate system. Previous work has suggested that two general circulation shifts anticipated to occur in a warming climate, poleward shifts in the midlatitude jet streams and a poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation, are associated with differing effects on midlatitude clouds. This study examines two dynamical cloud‐controlling factors, mid‐tropospheric vertical velocity, and the estimated inversion strength (EIS) of the marine boundary layer temperature inversion, to explain why poleward shifts in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude jet and Hadley cell edge have varying shortwave cloud‐radiative responses at midlatitudes. Changes in vertical velocity and EIS occur further equatorward for poleward shifts in the Hadley cell edge than they do for poleward shifts of the midlatitude jet. Because the sensitivity of shortwave cloud radiative effects (SWCRE) to variations in vertical velocity and EIS is a function of latitude, the SWCRE anomalies associated with jet and Hadley cell shifts differ. The dynamical changes associated with a poleward jet shift occur further poleward in a regime where the sensitivities of SWCRE to changes in vertical velocity and EIS balance, leading to a near‐net zero change in SWCRE in midlatitudes with a poleward jet shift. Conversely, the dynamical changes associated with Hadley cell expansion occur further equatorward at a latitude where the sensitivity of SWCRE is more strongly associated with changes in mid‐tropospheric vertical velocity, leading to a net shortwave cloud radiative warming effect in midlatitudes.

A conveyor belt experimental setup to study the internal dynamics of granular avalanches

This paper shows how a conveyor belt setup can be used to study the dynamics of stationary granular flows. To visualise the flow within the granular bulk and, in particular, determine its composition and the velocity field, we used the refractive index matching (RIM) technique combined with particle tracking velocimetry and coarse-graining algorithms. Implementing RIM posed varied technical, design and construction difficulties. To test the experimental setup and go beyond a mere proof of concept, we carried out granular flow experiments involving monodisperse and bidisperse borosilicate glass beads. These flows resulted in stationary avalanches with distinct regions whose structures were classified as: (i) a convective-bulged front, (ii) a compact-layered tail and, between them, (iii) a breaking size-segregation wave structure. We found that the bulk strain rate, represented by its tensor invariants, varied significantly between the identified flow structures, and their values supported the observed avalanche characteristics. The flow velocity fields’ interpolated profiles adjusted well to a Bagnold-like profile, although a considerable basal velocity slip was measured. We calculated a segregation flux using recent developments in particle-size segregation theory. Along with vertical velocity changes and high expansion rates, segregation fluxes were markedly higher at the avalanche’s leading edge, suggesting a connection between flow rheology and grain segregation. The experimental conveyor belt’s results showed the potential for further theoretical developments in rheology and segregation-coupled models.Graphic

Understanding model diversity in future precipitation projections for South America

Precipitation patterns are expected to change in the future climate, affecting humans through a number of factors. Global climate models (GCM) are our best tools for projecting large-scale changes in climate, but they cannot make reliable projections locally. To abate this problem, we have downscaled three GCMs with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to 50 km horizontal resolution over South America, and 10 km resolution for central Chile, Peru and southern Brazil. Historical simulations for years 1996–2005 generally compare well to precipitation observations and reanalyses. Future simulations for central Chile show reductions in annual precipitation and increases in the number of dry days at the end-of-the-century for a high greenhouse gas emission scenario, regardless of resolution and GCM boundary conditions used. However, future projections for Peru and southern Brazil are more uncertain, and simulations show that increasing the model resolution can switch the sign of precipitation projections. Differences in future precipitation changes between global/regional and high resolution (10 km) are only mildly influenced by the orography resolution, but linked to the convection parameterization, reflected in very different changes in dry static energy flux divergence, vertical velocity and boundary layer height. Our findings imply that using results directly from GCMs, and even from coarse-resolution (50 km) regional models, may give incorrect conclusions about regional-scale precipitation projections. While climate modelling at convection-permitting scales is computationally costly, we show that coarse-resolution regional simulations using a scale-aware convection parameterization, instead of a more conventional scheme, better mirror fine-resolution precipitation projections.

Precipitation Simulation from the Cumulus Convection Parameterization Schemes Based on the WRF Model in the Weihe River Basin, china

Two cumulus convection parameterization schemes, i.e., Kain-Fritsch (K-F) and Grell-3 based on the V4.1.2 Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, were used to simulate the summer precipitation in the Weihe River Basin using hourly precipitation data at the resolution of 5 km and 2 km. the precipitation experiment results at different resolution were compared and analyzed. The root square error and correlation coefficient were used to verify and evaluate the simulation results. The results show that in K-F and Grell-3, the two cumulus model simulations with a resolution of 5 km can explain the spatial distribution pattern of precipitation and the diurnal variation process, and the experimental simulation results are consistent with the actual observations. The summer precipitation simulation in June, July, and August is highly sensitive to the two cumulus parameter schemes of K-F and Grell-3. The simulated precipitation value is higher than the actual value, and the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of K-F and Grell-3 schemes are 5.49-13.29 and 5.69-10.88, respectively. In terms of precipitation simulation, Grell-3 scheme is better than K-F scheme, especially in areas with heavy rainfall. When the resolution is increased to 2 km, the regions with heavy precipitation can be displayed more finely. The influence of water vapor flux and vertical velocity changes on precipitation in the Weihe River is analyzed from two aspects, i.e., water conditions and atmospheric instability. From the simulation results by the K-F scheme, the vertical velocity fluctuations are unstable and strong in the convective area, and the convective rainfall is relatively high. From the simulation results by Grell-3, the vertical velocity is large and increased rapidly, which is conducive to the generation of large-scale heavy precipitation. Both schemes are very sensitive to the simulation of water vapor transport and vertical velocity. This study provides a basis for the research on the adaptability of regional precipitation simulation.

Variations in Flash Flood–Producing Storm Characteristics Associated with Changes in Vertical Velocity in a Future Climate in the Mississippi River Basin

AbstractThe Mississippi River basin (MRB) is a flash flood hotspot receiving the most frequent flash floods and highest average rainfall accumulation of any region in the United States. Given the destruction flash floods cause in the current climate in the MRB, it is critical to understand how they will change in a future, warmer climate in order to prepare for these impacts. Recent work utilizing convection-permitting climate simulations to analyze future precipitation changes in flash flood–producing storms in the United States shows that the MRB experiences the greatest future increase in flash flood rainfall. This result motivates the goal of the present study to better understand the changes to precipitation characteristics and vertical velocity in flash flood–producing storms in the MRB. Specifically, the variations in flash flood–producing storm characteristics related to changes in vertical velocity in the MRB are examined by identifying 484 historical flash flood–producing storms from 2002 and 2013 and studying how they change in a future climate using 4-km convection-permitting simulations under a pseudo–global warming framework. In a future climate, precipitation and runoff increase by 17% and 32%, respectively, in flash flood–producing storms in the MRB. While rainfall increases in all flash flood–producing storms due to similar increases in moisture, it increases the most in storms with the strongest vertical velocity, suggesting that storm dynamics might modulate future changes in rainfall. These results are necessary to predict and prepare for the multifaceted impacts of climate change on flash flood–producing storms in order to create more resilient communities.

Impacts of aerosols produced by biomass burning on the stratocumulus‐to‐cumulus transition in the equatorial Atlantic

AbstractThe impact of aerosols produced by biomass burning on the stratocumulus‐to‐cumulus transition (SCT) in the equatorial Atlantic is studied using satellite‐based and reanalysis data for the month of June. The month of June is highlighted because it represents monsoon onset as well as the largest sea surface temperature gradient in the summer, which is the peak season of tropical African biomass burning. Boundary layer deepening and increasing temperatures put the location of the SCT within the Gulf of Guinea. Satellite retrievals indicate that the bulk of aerosols occur near 1,500 m in altitude, either above or below the boundary layer depending on latitudinal position. Changes in smoke loading over the Gulf of Guinea due to greater transport from southern Africa leads to increases in low‐level cloud cover above cloud decks and decreases when mixed within the boundary layer. Further south, we find significant changes to temperature, cloud top height, tropospheric stability and moisture availability near maximum aerosol loading. In addition, changes in vertical velocity during dirty conditions further reinforce changes in tropospheric stability. These effects combine to shorten the SCT in space during increased aerosol loading episodes.