Thermospheric Composition Changes Research Articles

Calibrating estimates of ionospheric long-term change

Abstract. Long-term reduction (∼20 km) in the height of the ionospheric F2 layer, hmF2, is predicted to result from increased levels of tropospheric greenhouse gases. Sufficiently long sequences of ionospheric data exist in order for us to investigate this long-term change, recorded by a global network of ionosondes. However, direct measurements of ionospheric-layer height with these instruments is not possible. As a result, most estimates of hmF2 rely on empirical formulae based on parameters routinely scaled from ionograms. Estimates of trends in hmF2 using these formulae show no global consensus. We present an analysis in which data from the Japanese ionosonde station at Kokubunji were used to estimate monthly median values of hmF2 using an empirical formula. These were then compared with direct measurements of the F2 layer height determined from incoherent-scatter measurements made at the Shigaraki MU Observatory, Japan. Our results reveal that the formula introduces diurnal, seasonal, and long-term biases in the estimates of hmF2 of ≈±10% (±25 km at an altitude of 250 km). These are of similar magnitude to layer height changes anticipated as a result of climate change. The biases in the formula can be explained by changes in thermospheric composition that simultaneously reduce the peak density of the F2 layer and modulate the underlying F1 layer ionization. The presence of an F1 layer is not accounted for in the empirical formula. We demonstrate that, for Kokobunji, the ratios of F2 / E and F2 / F1 critical frequencies are strongly controlled by changes in geomagnetic activity represented by the am index. Changes in thermospheric composition in response to geomagnetic activity have previously been shown to be highly localized. We conclude that localized changes in thermospheric composition modulate the F2 / E and F2 / F1 peak ratios, leading to differences in hmF2 trends. We further conclude that the influence of thermospheric composition on the underlying ionosphere needs to be accounted for in these empirical formulae if they are to be applied to studies of long-term ionospheric change.

A storm-time global electron density reconstruction model in three-dimensions based on artificial neural networks

We present results of a dedicated global storm-time model for the reconstruction of ionospheric electron density in three-dimensions. Using the storm criterion of |Dst|⩾50 nT and Kp⩾4, the model is constructed using a combination of radio occultation and ionosonde data during the periods of 2006–2021 and 2000–2020, respectively. From the ionosonde data, only the bottomside electron density profiles up to the maximum height of the F2 layer (hmF2) are considered. In addition to the selection of storm-time data only for the model development, we have investigated the inclusion of time history for the geomagnetic storm indicator Kp at 9 and 33 h in an attempt to take into account the delay of physical processes related to atmospheric gravity waves or traveling ionospheric disturbances and thermospheric composition changes which drive varying ionospheric storm effects during storm conditions. Based on incoherent scatter radar data and in comparison with the IRI 2020 model, the developed storm-time model provides foF2 modelling improvement of above 50% during the storm main phase over Millstone Hill (42.6°N, 71.5°W) and Tromsø (69.6°N, 19.2°E) for the storm periods of 3–6 November 2021 and 23–25 March 2023, respectively. Modelled results for Jicamarca (11.8°S, 77.2°W) show that the storm-time model estimates foF2 by an improvement of over 20% during the main phase of the 07–10 September 2017 storm period. As the ionospheric conditions return to quiet time levels, the IRI 2020 model perform better than the constructed storm -time model

The Ionospheric Dynamics of the African Sector Responding to a Severe Geomagnetic Storm; the Storm of 3–5 November 2021

AbstractThe sudden storm commencement (SSC) of 3 November 2021, a severe storm was detected through disturbances in magnetospheric and ring current systems at around 1942 UT. We used a daily variation of total electron content (TEC) from ground‐based GNSS stations, ionosonde parameters and modeled zonal and meridional wind velocities to study the ionospheric response over the African region by comparing storm and quiet time variations. The equatorial GNSS station of NKLG recorded initial positive storm effects around the time of SSC, of which these effects spread over the whole African region during the main phase with positive and negative storm effects during the main and recovery phases respectively. The two disturbances at the SSC and the main phase were caused by the penetrating electric field and traveling atmospheric disturbances respectively. The analysis of TIMED Global UltraViolet Imager images revealed storm time‐induced changes in thermospheric composition during the main phase which resulted in a differential ionospheric response with intense, moderate, and weak positive storm effects in northern, equatorial, and southern regions respectively. The horizontal magnetic field components show two signatures of prompt penetration electric field that suppressed the formation of the equatorial anomaly at SSC and enhanced positive storm effects in the equatorial region at the main phase, Therefore, the ionospheric response was due to the relative contributions of prompt penetration electric field effects and equatorward traveling disturbances which depended on storm onset time, past ionospheric state, and storm phase.

Impact of September 2019 Antarctic Sudden Stratospheric Warming on Mid-Latitude Ionosphere and Thermosphere Over North America and Europe.

Limited observational evidence indicates that ionospheric changes caused by Arctic sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) occur at middle latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. However, it is not known if a similar interhemispheric linkage is produced by Antarctic SSWs. Here we examine thermospheric and ionospheric anomalies observed in September 2019 at middle latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. We report persistent (at least 30 days) and strong (up to 80%–100%) positive anomalies in the daytime total electron content (TEC) and increases in the thermospheric O/N2 ratio in the western region of North America. However, central and eastern regions of North America experience moderate suppression of TEC reaching 20%–40% of the baseline. Different positive and negative anomalies are observed over the European sector. We hypothesize that regional differences in the TEC response could be related to modulation of thermospheric winds during SSWs, changes in thermospheric composition, and differences in declination angle.

Seasonal Variation of O/N2 on Different Pressure Levels From GUVI Limb Measurements

AbstractThe ratio of O number density to N2 number density (O/N2) is an important parameter to describe thermospheric composition changes and its effects on the ionosphere. Based on Global Ultraviolet Imager (GUVI) limb measurements, we investigate the seasonal behaviors of O/N2 volume density ratio on different constant pressure levels during geomagnetically quiet periods. The global O/N2 shows the prominent annual and semiannual variations with solar activity dependence. An empirical model considering the solar activity and annual/semiannual variations can reasonably reproduce the original O/N2. The modeled O/N2 captures the hemispheric asymmetry of the annual variations in both length and magnitude. Global maps of the seasonal harmonic components of the modeled O/N2 indicate the latitudinal and altitudinal dependence of O/N2 seasonal variations. The annual component dominates over the semiannual component at mid‐latitudes, but it is smaller than the semiannual component at low latitudes. In the Northern Hemisphere, and at low geomagnetic latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, the annual component peaks around December solstice at all altitudes, whereas at middle geomagnetic latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, it peaks around June solstice. The semiannual component peaks at the equinoxes in almost all regions over the globe at all altitudes. The annual and semiannual amplitudes both increase with altitude. In addition, O/N2 annual variations and solar activity dependence are more influenced by the thermal expansion and contraction.

The Effects of the Recurrent Storms on Fof2 at Ouagadougou Station during Solar Cycles 21-22

The present paper deals with the effect of recurrent activity on the foF2 diurnal variation at Ouagadougou station for solar cycles 21 and 22. The recurrent activity produces at daytime positive storm for all solar cycle phases. For all seasons, the recurrent activity causes positive storm during nighttime and has no effect during daytime. From this study, it emerges that a positive effect of the storm at this station may be explained by the thermospheric composition changes. Recurrent activity more occurs during the solar decreasing phase and during spring month. The storm strength shows solar cycle phase and seasonal dependence. The storm strength is the highest during the solar increasing phase and during summer months.

Understanding the Global Variability in Thermospheric Nitric Oxide Flux Using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs)

AbstractWe present the first‐ever global assessment of thermospheric nitric oxide infrared radiative flux (NOF) variability. NOF (W/m2) from 100‐ to 250‐km altitude is extracted from 13.7 years of data from the TIMED satellite, Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument, and decomposed into four empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and their amplitudes. We determine the strongest modes of NOF variability in the data set and develop a compact model of NOF. The first four EOFs account for 83% of the variability in the data. We illustrate the NOF model and discuss the geophysical associations of the EOFs. The first EOF represents 69% of the total variance and correlates strongly with Kp and solar shortwave flux, suggesting that geomagnetic activity and solar weather account for a large portion of NOF variability. EOF 2 shows annual and seasonal variations, possibly due to annual and seasonal thermospheric composition and temperature changes and may represent the chemical breathing mode of NOF. EOF 3 shows annual variations and correlates with solar energetic particle events and X‐flares. EOF 3 may represent winter time solar energetic particle event‐enhanced diurnal tide effects. EOF 4 suggests a meridional transport mechanism at the predawn and postdusk equator after strong storms. The EOF uncertainty is verified using cross‐validation analysis. Quantifying the spatial and temporal variabilities of NOF using eigenmodes will increase the understanding of how upper atmospheric nitric oxide cooling behaves and could increase the accuracy of future space weather and climate models.

The Modulation of the Quasi‐Two‐Day Wave on Total Electron Content as Revealed by BeiDou GEO and Meteor Radar Observations Over Central China

AbstractThe ground‐based total electron content (TEC) observations from BeiDou Geostationary Orbit (GEO) satellites provide more accurate temporal ionospheric variations nearly at the fixed ionospheric pierce points as compared with the non‐GEO TEC. BeiDou GEO TEC measurements during 2016, along with the horizontal wind observations from a collocated meteor radar, are utilized to quantitatively study the ionospheric response to the quasi‐two‐day wave (QTDW) in the neutral atmosphere at Meng Cheng (116.6°E, 33.3°N) over central China. The QTDW peaks during July with amplitudes of ~25–30 m/s for both zonal and meridional winds. It is suggested that the nonlinear interactions between the QTDW and tides and their influences on TEC are insignificant for this QTDW event. Nevertheless, the diurnal tide decreases by ~40–60% during the QTDW episode, which is most likely related to the change of background wind induced by the QTDW. Correspondingly, the 24 h oscillations in TEC decrease by ~18%. In addition, the wind perturbations of the QTDW can also possibly modulate the midlatitude electric dynamo and result in a quasi‐two‐day oscillation (QTDO) of ~1.2 total electron content unit (TECU), about ~10% of the background TEC. Our analysis also shows that the background TEC decreases by ~1 TECU (~8%) when the QTDW reaches maximum amplitude. This is probably related to the thermospheric composition changes (e.g., O and N2) induced by the QTDW dissipation.

Attribution of interminimum changes in global and hemispheric total electron content

AbstractWe use a new data product of electron column density (total electron content, or TEC) maps to estimate and attribute the interminimum changes (the differences between annual averages centered on the 2008 and 1996 solar minima) in TEC global and hemispheric averages (dividing the globe in three different ways). We attribute the observed changes to corresponding changes in solar and geomagnetic activity. The new TEC map product was constructed with temporally consistent processing, and it resolves some of the apparent inconsistencies of earlier studies. The estimated global average TEC interminimum change is −19.3% ± 1.0% (2σ uncertainty), of which −9.1% is attributable to the interminimum change in solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance (as represented by the F10.7 index), −2.2% is attributable to the change in geomagnetic activity (Kp index), and −9.3% remains unattributed. The hemispheric results are very similar to the global results, but the values tend to be slightly larger in the Southern Hemisphere, at low latitudes, and at night, compared to the opposing respective hemispheres. The interminimum changes and temporal variations of thermospheric mass density anomalies (i.e., the difference between the data and the empirical model) are very similar to those of the global and hemispheric TEC residuals, suggesting that they are driven by a common, globally distributed mechanism. Thermospheric composition changes and additional (unobserved) decreases in solar EUV irradiance are possible mechanisms behind the TEC and mass density unattributed changes; we estimate a plausible range of −6% to −13% for the solar EUV irradiance interminimum change.

Impact of semidiurnal tidal variability during SSWs on the mean state of the ionosphere and thermosphere

AbstractObservations from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) satellites reveal a global reduction in the zonal and diurnal mean F region peak electron density (NmF2) during sudden stratosphere warmings (SSWs). The present study investigates the source of the global NmF2 decrease by performing numerical experiments with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) thermosphere‐ionosphere‐electrodynamics general circulation model. The simulations reveal that the NmF2 reduction coincides with a depletion of thermospheric [O]/[N2], indicating that the NmF2 depletion is related to changes in thermospheric composition during SSWs. Numerical experiments further illustrate that the short‐term (∼10 day) enhancement of the migrating semidiurnal solar tide (SW2) during SSWs is the source of the variability in thermospheric composition. In particular, the enhancement of the SW2 during SSWs alters the lower thermosphere zonal mean circulation, leading to a reduction in atomic oxygen in the lower thermosphere. The atomic oxygen reduction propagates into the upper thermosphere through molecular diffusion, leading to a decrease in [O]/[N2] throughout the low‐ to middle‐latitude thermosphere. It is anticipated that the effects of the SW2 on the ionosphere and thermosphere investigated herein will be modulated by SSW related enhancements of the migrating semidiurnal lunar tide (M2). The magnitude of the combined impact of the SW2 and M2 on the ionosphere‐thermosphere mean state will depend on the relative phasing of the solar and lunar tides. The results demonstrate that in addition to modulating the low‐latitude electrodynamics, tidal variability during SSWs can significantly impact the mean state of the ionosphere and thermosphere.

The observation and simulation of ionospheric response to CIR/high‐speed streams‐induced geomagnetic activity on 4 April 2005

AbstractThe ionospheric response to corotating interaction region (CIR)‐induced geomagnetic activity on 4 April 2005 has been studied using in situ electron density measurements, ground GPS‐total electron content (TEC) observations, and numerical simulations of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Thermosphere‐Ionosphere‐Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE‐GCM). The case study resulted that the ionospheric positive response occurred from high to low latitudes. The positive effect at low latitudes could continue for 4 days, whereas at middle to high latitudes the disturbance mainly lasted only for 1 day. The modeled Ne and TEC from TIE‐GCM had a good agreement with those from observations. The simulation results showed that penetration electric fields were responsible for the daytime positive response during the initial and main phases of the geomagnetic storm, while neutral winds were responsible for the presunset positive effects. The long‐lasting positive storm effect during the storm recovery time at low latitudes was related to the thermospheric composition (O/N2) changes during the storm event.

The effects of March 20 2015 solar eclipse on the F2 layer in the mid-latitude

This paper studied the effects of solar eclipse of March 20, 2015 on the F2 layer in the mid-latitude. The diurnal changes in the NmF2 and hmF2 in mid-latitude stations during the spectacular event, as recorded by the ionosonde situated along the path of solar eclipse, which are within the obscuration percentage of 59–90% were investigated. The estimation of the percentage of solar ionizing radiation that remains unmasked during the eclipse window was carried out. The high uncertainty level (i.e. the error is ⩽±0.2), indicates that variation in electron density during eclipse window can be used as proxy parameter for solar ionizing radiation. The NmF2 decreased during the eclipse window, as a consequence of the variation in the local solar radiation. The variation of F2 plasma was dominated by diffusion mechanisms which determine the height at which the F2 peak formed and were related to the changes in thermospheric composition. The downward/upward movements of the plasma correspond with the drifting of the diffusion mechanisms and undergone a comparable variation with the solar ionizing radiation. Our result indicates that eclipse effects increase with increase in latitude and the time lag (the time delay ranges from 11 to 21min) decreases with increase in latitude.

Ionospheric response to the 2015 St. Patrick's Day storm: A global multi‐instrumental overview

AbstractWe present the first multi‐instrumental results on the ionospheric response to the geomagnetic storm of 17–18 March 2015 (the St. Patrick's Day storm) that was up to now the strongest in the 24th solar cycle (minimum SYM‐H value of −233 nT). The storm caused complex effects around the globe. The most dramatic positive ionospheric storm occurred at low latitudes in the morning (~100–150% enhancement) and postsunset (~80–100% enhancement) sectors. These significant vertical total electron content increases were observed in different local time sectors and at different universal time, but around the same area of the Eastern Pacific region, which indicates a regional impact of storm drivers. Our analysis revealed that this particular region was most concerned by the increase in the thermospheric O/N2 ratio. At midlatitudes, we observe inverse hemispheric asymmetries that occurred, despite the equinoctial period, in different longitudinal regions. In the European‐African sector, positive storm signatures were observed in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), whereas in the American sector, a large positive storm occurred in the Southern Hemisphere, while the NH experienced a negative storm. The observed asymmetries can be partly explained by the thermospheric composition changes and partly by the hemispherically different nondipolar portions of the geomagnetic field as well as by the IMF By component variations. At high latitudes, negative ionospheric storm effects were recorded in all longitudinal regions, especially the NH of the Asian sector was concerned. The negative storm phase developed globally on 18 March at the beginning of the recovery phase.

Effects of geomagnetic storm on low latitude ionospheric total electron content: A case study from Indian sector

The effect of geomagnetic storms on low latitude ionosphere has been investigated with the help of Global Positioning System Total Electron Content (GPS-TEC) data. The investigation has been done with the aid of TEC data from the Indian equatorial region, Port Blair (PBR) and equatorial ionization anomaly region, Agartala (AGR). During the geomagnetic storms on 24th April and 15th July 2012, significant enhancement up to 150% and depression up to 72% in VTEC is observed in comparison to the normal day variation. The variations in VTEC observed from equatorial to EIA latitudes during the storm period have been explained with the help of electro-dynamic effects (prompt penetration electric field (PPEF) and disturbance dynamo electric field (DDEF)) as well as mechanical effects (storm-induced equatorward neutral wind effect and thermospheric composition changes). The current study points to the fact that the electro-dynamic effect of geomagnetic storms around EIA region is more effective than at the lower latitude region. Drastic difference has been observed over equatorial region (positive storm impact) and EIA region (negative storm impact) around same longitude sector, during storm period on 24th April. This drastic change as observed in GPS-TEC on 24th April has been further confirmed by using the O/N2 ratio data from GUVI (Global Ultraviolet Imager) as well as VTEC map constructed from IGS data. The results presented in the paper are important for the application of satellite-based communication and navigational system.

Ionospheric response to CIR‐induced recurrent geomagnetic activity during the declining phase of solar cycle 23

AbstractThis paper presents an epoch analysis of global ionosphere responses to recurrent geomagnetic activity during 79 corotating interaction region (CIR) events from 2004 to 2009. The data used were GPS total electron content (TEC) data from the Madrigal Database at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Haystack Observatory and the electron density (Ne) data obtained from CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) observations. The results show that global ionosphere responses to CIR events have some common features. In high and middle latitudes, the total electron content (TEC) showed a significant positive response (increased electron densities) in the first epoch day. A negative TEC response occurred at high latitudes of the American sector following the positive response. The CHAMP Ne showed a daytime positive response in all latitudes and a nighttime negative response in the subauroral region. These negative TEC and Ne responses were found to be related to thermospheric composition (O/N2) changes during the storms. At all latitudes, the maximum of the TEC positive effect always occurred at 2–6 h after the CIR starting during local daytime and 10–18 h later for the CIR onset during local nighttime. Case studies indicate that the TEC and Ne positive response had a strong dependence on the southward component (Bz) of the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind speed. This suggests that penetration electric fields that were associated with changes in solar winds might play a significant role in the positive ionospheric response to storms. During the recovery time of the CIR‐produced geomagnetic activity, the TEC positive disturbance at low latitudes sometimes could last for 2–4 days, whereas at middle to high latitudes the disturbance lasted only for 1 day in most cases. A comparison of the ionospheric responses between the American, European and Asian sectors shows that the ionosphere response in the North American sector was stronger than that in the other two regions. The response of foF2 to the CIR events in middle to high latitudes showed a negative response for 2–3 days after the first epoch day. This is different from the response of TEC, which was mostly positive during the same period of time.

Long-term changes in thermospheric composition inferred from a spectral analysis of ionospheric F-region data

Abstract. A study of ionospheric data recorded at Slough/Chilton, UK, from 1935 to 2012, has revealed long-term changes in the relative strength of the annual and semi-annual variability in the ionospheric F2 layer critical frequencies. Comparing these results with data from the southern hemisphere station at Stanley in the Falkland Islands between 1945 and 2012 reveals a trend that appears to be anti-correlated with that at Chilton. The behaviour of foF2 is a function of thermospheric composition and so we argue that the observed long-term changes are driven by composition change. The ionospheric trends share some of their larger features with the trend in the variability of the aa geomagnetic index. Changes to the semi-annual/annual ratio in the Slough/Chilton and Stanley data may therefore be attributable to the variability in geomagnetic activity which controls the average latitudinal extent of the auroral ovals and subsequent thermospheric circulation patterns. Changes in ionospheric composition or thermospheric wind patterns are known to influence the height of the F2 layer at a given location. Long-term changes to the height of the F2 layer have been used to infer an ionospheric response to greenhouse warming. We suggest that our observations may influence such measurements and since the results appear to be dependent on geomagnetic longitude, this could explain why the long-term drifts observed in F2 layer height differ between locations.

Thermosphere and ionosphere response to subauroral polarization streams (SAPS): Model simulations

An empirical model of subauroral polarization streams (SAPS) has been incorporated into the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM). This SAPS driven TIEGCM is used to simulate the effect of SAPS on the global thermosphere and ionosphere during a moderate geomagnetically active period between day of year (DOY) 329 and 333 in 2008. Model results show: (1) SAPS caused an increase in global thermospheric temperature which became stronger with time. This neutral temperature increase was more significant in subauroral and auroral regions. Joule heating by the SAPS and the redistribution of this heat by dynamic processes were the primary mechanisms for the simulated global neutral temperature changes. (2) In the SAPS driven TIEGCM, the strong ion drag effect in the subauroral SAPS channel drove large changes in thermospheric winds. Zonal neutral winds had either an extra, separate channel of westward flow in the subauroral region in the afternoon‐midnight sector or a broad westward wind jet that merged with the regular duskside auroral westward zonal neutral wind driven by the high latitude convection pattern. The exact latitudinal profile of the zonal winds depended on local time. (3) The response of neutral temperature and wind to SAPS was more significant at higher altitudes and exhibited seasonal/hemispheric asymmetry. (4) The heating to the thermosphere by SAPS also resulted in changes in thermospheric composition with upwelling of molecular rich air in subauroral and auroral regions and downwelling of atomic oxygen rich air at other latitudes. These changes in thermospheric composition contributed to the deeper and more extended ionospheric electron density depletions in subauroral middle latitude regions, as well as electron density increases along the equatorward edge of the SAPS channel in the afternoon sector.

Ionospheric total electron content: Global and hemispheric climatology

[1] A new general linear model of the climatology of the ionosphere's total electron content (TEC) is described, accounting simultaneously for the influences of solar and geomagnetic activity, oscillations at four frequencies and a secular trend. The model captures more than 98% of the variance in the daily averaged, global TEC derived from GPS observations during the 16 years from 1995 to 2010, and enables the reconstruction of TEC variations since 1950. Solar EUV irradiance variations, the dominant ionospheric influence, directly increase TEC by as much as 40 TECU from solar activity minimum to maximum and produce additional 27-day fluctuations of as much as 15 TECU (in October 2003). Semiannual and annual oscillations in TEC are comparable in magnitude to the 27-day fluctuations, with (peak to valley) amplitudes that increase from a few TECU at low solar activity to ∼17 TECU during solar activity maximum. The phase and amplitude of the semiannual oscillation are identical in the northern and southern geographic hemispheres (and hence globally). In contrast, the annual oscillation is twice as large in the southern hemisphere (where it peaks in December–January) than in the northern hemisphere (where it peaks in April–May). Seasonal, semiannual and annual anomalies in TEC are direct effects of semiannual and annual oscillations produced by orbitally driven photoionization and thermospheric composition changes, not of corresponding oscillations in solar or geomagnetic activity. Geomagnetic influences on daily averaged global TEC are relatively modest, with the maximum effect a reduction of 11 TECU (in October 2003) and only 11 episodes in excess of 5 TECU depletions during the past 16 years.

Study of TEC changes during geomagnetic storms occurred near the crest of the equatorial ionospheric ionization anomaly in the Indian sector

GPS satellites data obtained at Bhopal (23.16° N, 77.36° E, geomagnetic latitude 14.23° N) India were analyzed to study the TEC changes during several geomagnetic storms (−300 nT < Dst < −50 nT) occurred in 2005–2007. We had segregated the storms according to the Dst value, i.e. moderate storms (−100 nT < Dst ⩽ −50 nT), strong storms (−150 nT < Dst < −100 nT), and severe storms (Dst less than −150 nT). Total of 21 geomagnetic storms (10 moderate, 9 strong, 2 severe) are considered for the present study. Deviation in vertical total electron content (VTEC) during the main phase of the storm was found to be associated with the prompt penetration of electric field originated due to the under-shielding and over-shielding conditions for almost all geomagnetic storms discussed in this paper. For most of the storms VTEC shows the positive percentage deviation during the main phase while it shows positive as well as the negative deviation during the recovery phase of the storms. The −80% deviation in VTEC was found for geomagnetic storm occurred on July 17, 2005 and the negative trend continued for recovery phase of the storm. This was mainly due to the thermospheric composition changes by Joule heating effect at auroral latitudes that generate electric field disturbance at low latitudes. Traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) were responsible for the formation of wave like nature in VTEC for the storms occurred on May 15, 2005, whereas it was not observed for storm occurred on August 24, 2005.

Auroral and thermospheric response to the 9 day periodic variations in the dayside reconnection rate in 2005

[1] In this paper we seek the means to forecast changes in thermospheric composition. In particular, we focus on a period where there was a strong 9 day periodicity in the high-latitude drivers, as this provides the best opportunity to explore our ability to determine the signature of the drivers that change the thermosphere. Using measurements from ACE and TIMED/GUVI in 2005, we establish a link among the dayside magnetic merging rate (MMR), auroral hemispheric power (HP), thermospheric neutral density, and temperature as all of them showed a clear 9 day variation. The magnitude of the 9 day variation in the thermospheric temperature increased from the equator (∣latitude∣ < 30) to the midlatitude (30 < ∣latitude∣ < 45) and reached its peak values at high latitudes (45 < ∣latitude∣ < 90). These observations confirm that changes in thermospheric composition are created locally at high latitude (i.e., in the auroral zone). These composition changes then expanded to lower latitudes due to the global thermosphere circulation. The correlation among the drivers (MMR and HP) and the thermospheric density/temperature provides an opportunity to establish a forecast relationship between solar wind and IMF measurements and thermospheric conditions. The 9 day periodic variation in HP and the thermosphere also leads to periodic variations in ionosphere electron density/conductance and field-aligned currents. All these changes strongly impact satellite drag, satellite surface charging, and radio frequency propagation.