Changes In Socioeconomic Variables Research Articles

Urbanization in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area 1900–2020: Urban Dynamics and Driving Factors

The variability of urban growth in the Mexico City conurbation reflects the complexity of changes and uncertainty experienced in many urban areas. The goal of this project is to identify how the urban expansion of the Mexico City conurbation reflects the changes in socioeconomic variables of the region over recent decades. The authors first spatially quantified the rate of urban growth from 1990 to 2020 using Landsat data and then identified the socioeconomic variables associated with this urban expansion. Results showed a progressive loss in vegetated land and an increase in urban land. The population’s access to roads and the marginalization index had the highest positive correlation with the observed urban growth. Although these variables were highly correlated with each other, access to roads was not found to be a variable of importance for projecting urban growth. Finally, two distinct zones of urban growth were determined using cluster statistics; the first showed no growth, which corresponded with more established, older municipalities closer to the city centre, and the second zone had significant growth, which corresponded to municipalities away from the centre, coinciding with urban decentralization and new lifestyle patterns. The identification of urban growth zones and socioeconomic variables associated with that growth will assist with effective planning, infrastructure development, and resource management.

Toward a more comprehensive shift‐share analysis: An illustration using regional data

AbstractShift‐share analysis has been extensively used to investigate the different drivers of changes in socioeconomic variables in both spatial and non‐spatial contexts. This paper presents a comprehensive shift‐share formulation that, by considering all the possible interactions between the geographical and sectoral variables that interplay in a non‐spatial context, accounts for the intrinsic conditions of the regions that could affect the regional changes when spatial influences are not detected. The proposed technique is illustrated by analyzing the growth of industrial gross value added in the Spanish provinces between 2015 and 2019. Our results show the relevance of the intrinsic effects: the advantages (disadvantages) of the industrial sector within each province and the regional dynamism are important factors to explain the industrial changes in the Spanish regions. These findings provide evidence for the use of the comprehensive shift‐share as a tool that contribute to the regional analysis by identifying the characteristics of vulnerable regions that require further attention to avoid or lessen the effects of low economic growth.

Una propuesta de modelo para explicar la confianza de los empresarios en la economía costarricense

Este articulo propone un modelo para identificar como distintas variables economicas, sociales y politicas inciden en la confianza que los empresarios tienen hacia la economia costarricense. El objetivo del modelo es determinar si los empresarios costarricenses se comportan como agentes racionales, desde una perspectiva de racionalidad realista. Se concluye que la confianza de los empresarios costarricenses hacia la economia del pais se relaciona con cambios en variables socioeconomicas, por lo que estos parece que si se pueden comportar como agentes racionales.

Reaping socio-economic blessings of flowing water: evidence from hydropower initiatives of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

More than 76% of the total budget of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is allocated to renewable and non-renewable energy initiatives. This paper elucidates socioeconomic impacts of three hydropower projects of CPEC named as Suki Kinari, Karot and Kohala Hydropower Projects. Primary data on selected socioeconomic variables (SVs) was collected from respondents of the areas where these projects are located. Data was analysed statistically to ascertain existing trends before construction of these projects. Changes in socioeconomic variables (SVs) after construction of these projects were calculated using Khewa's Model. To get representative equations of trends, digital analysis of data was carried out using computer assisted quantitative data analysis software (CAQDAS). After this, socioeconomic indexes (SEIs) of households were calculated before and after construction of these projects using Newton-Leibniz Integration Process (NLIP). Results indicated that there is a substantial increase in socioeconomic status of the households after construction of these hydropower projects.

Reaping socio-economic blessings of flowing water: evidence from hydropower initiatives of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

More than 76% of the total budget of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is allocated to renewable and non-renewable energy initiatives. This paper elucidates socioeconomic impacts of three hydropower projects of CPEC named as Suki Kinari, Karot and Kohala Hydropower Projects. Primary data on selected socioeconomic variables (SVs) was collected from respondents of the areas where these projects are located. Data was analysed statistically to ascertain existing trends before construction of these projects. Changes in socioeconomic variables (SVs) after construction of these projects were calculated using Khewa's Model. To get representative equations of trends, digital analysis of data was carried out using computer assisted quantitative data analysis software (CAQDAS). After this, socioeconomic indexes (SEIs) of households were calculated before and after construction of these projects using Newton-Leibniz Integration Process (NLIP). Results indicated that there is a substantial increase in socioeconomic status of the households after construction of these hydropower projects.

Modelling the impact of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on river microbial water quality.

Microbial surface water quality is important, as it is related to health risk when the population is exposed through drinking, recreation or consumption of irrigated vegetables. The microbial surface water quality is expected to change with socio-economic development and climate change. This study explores the combined impacts of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on microbial water quality using a coupled hydrodynamic and water quality model (MIKE21FM-ECOLab). The model was applied to simulate the baseline (2014-2015) and future (2040s and 2090s) faecal indicator bacteria (FIB: E. coli and enterococci) concentrations in the Betna river in Bangladesh. The scenarios comprise changes in socio-economic variables (e.g. population, urbanization, land use, sanitation and sewage treatment) and climate variables (temperature, precipitation and sea-level rise). Scenarios have been developed building on the most recent Shared Socio-economic Pathways: SSP1 and SSP3 and Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in a matrix. An uncontrolled future results in a deterioration of the microbial water quality (+75% by the 2090s) due to socio-economic changes, such as higher population growth, and changes in rainfall patterns. However, microbial water quality improves under a sustainable scenario with improved sewage treatment (-98% by the 2090s). Contaminant loads were more influenced by changes in socio-economic factors than by climatic change. To our knowledge, this is the first study that combines climate change and socio-economic development scenarios to simulate the future microbial water quality of a river. This approach can also be used to assess future consequences for health risks.

Deforestation since independence: a quantitative assessment of four decades of land-cover change in Malawi

Land cover has changed rapidly across the tropics over the past century; however, detailed historical information describing the extent and possible drivers of such change is widely lacking. Here, we constructed a history of land-cover change at the district level in Malawi over a 37-year period from 1972 to 2009, the immediate post-colonial phase. Overall, there was a loss of 12 760 km2 (36%) of original forested area but also 11 161 km2 of new forest establishment, resulting in a relatively modest overall net loss of 1 599 km2 (5%). We correlated changes in deforestation and forest establishment with changes in socio-economic variables derived from spatially explicit data from the same time period. Deforestation was positively correlated with (in order of influence) changes in male school attendance, sex ratio, population density, hospital bed numbers, protected areas and dependency rate, but negatively correlated with changes in cattle density; forest establishment broadly showed the inverse relationships with the same variables. Although direct drivers of deforestation are well known for Malawi and much of Africa, the significance of socio-economic variables within this study can help to understand the underlying social pressures behind such drivers. In particular, development, population pressure and demographic factors are important predictors of deforestation rate within our study area.

An Existential-Humanistic View of Personality Change: Co-Occurring Changes with Psychological Well-Being in a 10Year Cohort Study.

Increasingly, psychological research has indicated that an individual’s personality changes across the lifespan. We aim to better understand personality change by examining if personality change is linked to striving towards fulfilment, as suggested by existential–humanistic theories of personality dynamics. Using the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study, a cohort of 4,733 mid-life individuals across 10 years, we show that personality change was significantly associated with change in existential well-being, represented by psychological well-being (PWB). Moreover, personality change was more strongly related to change in PWB than changes in other well-being indicators such as depression, hostility and life satisfaction. Personality changed to a similar degree and explained greater variation in our well-being measures than changes in socioeconomic variables. The findings indicate personality change is necessary for the holistic development of an individual, supporting a greater need to understand personality change and increasing room for use of personality measures as indicators of well-being and policy making.

The economy, crime and time: An analysis of recorded property crime in England & Wales 1961–2006

We seek to determine whether one of the unanticipated side-effects of social and economic changes associated with the adoption of neoliberal and monetarist economics during the 1970s/1980s was rising crime rates. Undertaking time series analysis of social and economic determinants of property crime (using official statistics on recorded crime for England and Wales from 1961 to 2006) we develop a model of the effect of changes in socio-economic variables (unemployment, inequality, welfare spending and incarceration) on property crime rates. We find that while three of these had significant effects on change in the property crime rate, income inequality did not. We conclude with a discussion of the extent to which neoliberal economic and welfare (and later criminal justice) policies can be held to have influenced the property crime rate since the early 1980s and what this tells us about the social and economic determinants of crime at the macro-level.

Stall in fertility decline in Eastern African countries: regional analysis of patterns, determinants and implications

We use data from the Demographic and Health Surveys to examine the patterns of stall in fertility decline in four Eastern African countries. Contrary to patterns of fertility transition in Africa that cut across various socio-economic and geographical groups within countries, we find strong selectivity of fertility stall across different groups and regions in all four countries. In both Kenya and Tanzania where fertility decline has stalled at the national level, it continued to decline among the most educated women and in some regions. While fertility has remained at pre-transition level in Uganda over the past 20 years, there are signs of decline with specific groups of women (especially the most educated, urban and those in the Eastern region) taking the lead. For Zimbabwe, although fertility has continued to decline at the national level, stall is observed among women with less than secondary education and those in some of the regions. We link these intra-country variations to differential changes in socio-economic variables, family planning programme environment and reproductive behaviour models. The results suggest that declines in contraceptive use, increases in unmet need for family planning, increasing preferences for larger families, and increases in adolescent fertility were consistently associated with stalls in subgroup fertility across all four countries. These results are consistent with models that emphasize the role of declines in national and international commitments to family planning programmes in the premature stall in sub-Saharan fertility transition.

Assessment of the fish demand pattern of households in Imo State, Nigeria

This study analyzes fish consumption patterns of households in Imo State, Nigeria using data from household budget survey conducted between December 2003 and December 2004. The Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS) was employed to investigate the economic and demographic effects on the demand for three types of fish. Prices were adjusted for quality, and the demographic translation method was used to incorporate the demographic variables. Result showed that the demand for fresh fish, dried fish and iced fish were 0.09kg, 0.17kg and 0.34kg per day respectively. The estimated demand elasticities indicate that an increase in the expenditure on fish will change the structure of fish consumption in favor of fresh fish and dried fish, and against iced fish. Socio- demographic characteristics, education, age, sex and food consumed away from home significantly influence the pattern of fish demand. Because changes in socioeconomic variables are realized very slowly, their impact should be considered in long run planning. Animal Production Research Advances Vol. 2(1) 2006: 23-27

Fertilizer adoption by small-scale farmers in Nakuru District, Kenya

This study identifies the socio-economic factors responsible for fertilizer adoption in Nakuru District, Kenya. Data for the study were obtained from a cross section of the farmers by using a multi-stage random sampling technique to purposively select both adopters and non-adopters of fertilizers. The probit model was employed to analyse the data via the maximum likelihood estimation technique. In addition, by making use of changes in stimulus level due to changes in socioeconomic variables, the effect of different policy options on fertilizer adoption was explored.