Changes In Public Debt Research Articles

STATE DEBT MANAGEMENT POLICY IMPROVEMENT PROSPECTS

This article describes the economic importance and necessity of public debt in developing the national economy. The scientific approaches of economists to the effective management of state internal and debt have been researched and conclusions have been drawn. In recent years, the trends of changes in public debt in the Republic of Uzbekistan have been analyzed. Findings on the implementation of the public debt management strategy and its main directions are based. A scientific proposal and practical recommendations on improving the mechanism of efficient management and distribution of state debts have been developed.

ASSESSMENT OF PUBLIC DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE STRUCTURE OF PUBLIC SPENDING AND INTERTEMPORAL CONSUMER BEHAVIOR

The paper estimates the sustainability of public debt in developing countries from 1990 to 2021 drawing on fiscal response function. The author proposes the modification of the Ramsey model that considers both saving behavior of the population and the structure of government spending in terms of their influence on fiscal policy effects. The findings are tested on the example of developing countries including the Russian Federation. We verify the model's conclusions in two stages. At the first stage, based on indicators of government expenditures’ structure and savings rate, we identify country clusters using the k-means method. At the second stage, for a certain groups of countries, we econometrically estimate the so-called fiscal response function, that is, the reaction of primary budget balance to debt accumulation in the previous period. We make estimates for panel data using a fixed effects model, as well as the generalized method of moments for a dynamic panel. Based on the estimates obtained, for a group of countries similar to Russia in terms of savings rates and the share of productive expenditures in the total share of government expenditures, there is a significant positive coefficient of the reaction of the primary budget balance to changes in public debt in the previous period. Thus, fiscal sustainability is achieved for the selected group of countries at the federal level during the period under review. However, risks at a regional level may, if events develop unfavorably, have a shock effect on the federal budget that requires an additional analysis of regional debt sustainability.

Determinants of Uganda’s Debt Sustainability: The Public Debt Dynamics Model in Perspective

To investigate Uganda's debt sustainability determinants. The fundamental framework for this study is the public debt dynamics model, which looks at connections between changes in public debt and important macroeconomic factors such as real GDP, primary balance, currency rate, real interest rate, and trade openness. While acknowledging the significance of the primary variables identified by Mupunga and Le Roux, our empirical analysis of a country's debt dynamics extends beyond these factors. Additional considerations include the incorporation of controls such as the production gap and the non-interest current account balance. Tailored to Uganda's economic context, our comprehensive empirical model aims to provide a nuanced understanding of the diverse determinants influencing debt dynamics in the region. The major conclusions indicate that the Primary Balance, Real Interest Rate, and Real Effective Exchange Rate all positively and significantly affect the debt ratio, suggesting that fiscal surplus, low-interest rates, and currency appreciation are favorable to debt reduction and sustainability. The paper also finds that the debt ratio is negatively and significantly influenced by the Current Account Balance, indicating that trade surplus is beneficial for debt management. The paper further finds that the debt ratio is not significantly influenced by GDP growth, suggesting that economic growth may not have a strong effect on debt dynamics in Uganda. Given the significant impact of the "Primary Balance" on the "Debt-to-GDP ratio in the long run, policymakers should prioritize maintaining a fiscal surplus and prudent fiscal management. Implementing measures to enhance revenue generation, control government expenditures, and reduce budget deficits can contribute to reducing the debt burden and ensuring long-term debt sustainability. To keep the debt-to-GDP ratio in good shape, fiscal policies and long-term restraint are crucial.

Regime-based debt sustainability analysis: Evidence from euro area economies

This paper empirically studies non-linearities in debt sustainability analysis by resorting to the modern estimation technique of panel smooth transition regression (PSTR). We assess euro area debt sustainability by analysing the reaction of the primary balance to changes in public debt, relative to GDP respectively, in annual frequency from 2000–2019 in a panel framework. The PSTR allows to estimate the existence of a threshold in the behaviour of the reaction function, refrains from the country-wise perspective and applies a regime-switching model to detect non-linearities. Data is segregated into different regimes endogenously via a logistic regression. Our results show that there are two different regimes in the euro area: a high and a low debt regime. The estimated reaction coefficient for the low debt regime is statistically insignificant, whereas it is positive and statistically significant for the high debt regime. Further, for a sub-sample of highly indebted economies we find a statistically significant negative (positive) reaction coefficient for the low (high) debt regime.

Public debt and welfare in a quantitative Schumpeterian growth model with incomplete markets

This paper quantifies the welfare effects of counterfactual public debt policies using an endogenous growth model with incomplete markets. The economy features public debt, Schumpeterian growth, infinitely-lived agents, uninsurable income risk, and discount factor heterogeneity. Two versions of the model are specified, one with households holding equity in the group of innovating firms. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy to match the degree of wealth inequality, the share of R&D expenditure in GDP, the firms’ exit rate, the average growth rate, and other standard long-run targets. When comparing balanced growth paths, I find large welfare gains in equilibria characterized by governments accumulating public wealth. The result is robust to the mechanism used to generate a highly concentrated wealth (i.e., preference heterogeneity or “superstar” income shocks). Welfare effects decompositions show that level effects and growth effects reinforce each other. The responses of both the intermediate goods and their market conditions are key in explaining the large level effects. The version of the model without equity is computationally easier to solve, allowing to consider transitional dynamics. Taking into account the dynamic adjustment to the new long-run equilibrium, I show that the transitional welfare costs are not large enough to change the sign of the welfare effects stemming from a change in public debt. I find that eliminating public debt would lead to a 0.8% increase in welfare, while moving to a debt/GDP ratio of 100% would entail a welfare loss of 0.5%. A decomposition analysis shows that growth accounts for approximately 50% of the overall welfare effects.

The Interaction between Policy Mix in Lebanon: Applications of the Nonlinear and Linear ARDL Models

This study investigates the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies in Lebanon over the period 2001 to 2019 by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model introduced by Pesaran et al. (2001) and Shin et al. (2014) respectively in order to examine simultaneously the short- and long-run symmetric and possible asymmetric interactions between fiscal and monetary tools in Lebanon. The fiscal and monetary rules employed in this study are inspired from Leeper (1991, 2016 and 2018). Based on NARDL and ARDL fiscal and monetary reaction functions, Lebanese fiscal authority acts independently indicating a fiscal dominance. This situation obliged the BDL to neglect its main goal of maintaining price stability in order to support fiscal deficit by creating seigniorage revenue to balance the government accounts which in turns has led to an acceleration of inflation rates even in case of monetary contraction. The fiscal responsiveness to changes in public debt is extremely weak in Lebanon, and even is negative, and this is due to the high levels of public debt (174.3% of GDP in 2019). The empirical results indicate also that while the linear approach provides evidences of the interaction between the fiscal and monetary policies, the nonlinear approach provides more important evidences to determine in which direction this cooperation or conflict occurs between policy mix. Moreover, this paper provides new evidences of the absence of fiscal and monetary discipline rules followed by the fiscal and monetary authorities, which indicates that the policymakers in Lebanon were managing the financial and monetary policies without any specific plan or program and without any future vision or even a framework that allows these policies to be evaluated.

Debt to the Penny and US Dollar Index: a lead-lag relationship of the US economy under impacts of the Covid-19 outbreak

PurposeThis study investigates the interactions between the US daily public debt and currency power under impacts of the Covid-19 crisis.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) modeling to explore the interactions between daily changes in the US Debt to the Penny and the US Dollar Index. The data sets are from April 01, 1993, to May 27, 2022, in which noticeable points include the Covid-19 outbreak (January 01, 2020) and the US vaccination campaign commencement (December 14, 2020).FindingsThe authors find that the daily change in public debt positively affects the USD index return, and the past performance of currency power significantly mitigates the Debt to the Penny. Due to the Covid-19 outbreak, the impact of public debt on currency power becomes negative. This effect remains unchanged after the pandemic. These findings indicate that policy-makers could feasibly obtain both the budget stability and currency power objectives in pursuit of either public debt sustainability or power of currency. However, such policies should be considered that public debt could be a negative influencer during crisis periods.Originality/valueThe authors propose a pioneering approach to explore the relationship between leading and lagging indicators of an economy as characterized by their daily data sets. In accordance, empirical findings of this study inspire future research in relation to public debt and its connections with several economic indicators.Peer reviewThe peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-08-2022-0581

Debt decomposition and the role of inflation: A security level analysis for India

To study India's debt dynamics, we assemble a novel data-set on Indian public debt with consistently defined aggregate annual components from 1951 to 2018, and Centre-State security level data from 2000 to 2018. Based on aggregate debt data, we quantify the contribution of inflation, real GDP growth, nominal interest rates and primary deficit/surplus towards India's debt-dynamics. We find that inflation is an important component in financing India's government debt historically. From the security level data, using the Hall-Sargent methodology, we find that nominal returns on the marketable and non-marketable portions of the Centre's debt account for the highest contribution towards changes in public debt. Our paper helps inform the debate on the adoption of flexible inflation targeting in India.

Analysis of Australia’s Fiscal Vulnerability to Crisis

Fiscal vulnerability, like a contagion, poses a threat to financial sector stability, which can lead towards sovereign default. This study aimed to assess fiscal vulnerability to crisis by investigating the Australian economy’s gross public debt, net public debt, and net financial liabilities. We used a threshold regression model and compared results with the baseline deficit–debt framework of analysis. The results of the base model suggested that the economy is fiscally sustainable, and that the primary surplus remains unaffected by increasing levels of public debt. In contrast, the threshold regression model indicated that the increasing level of debt has eroded primary surplus below the threshold level of 30.89% of public debt to GDP. These results need further investigation. Therefore, we modified our basic threshold model to capture budget deficit and surplus as a threshold in response to changes in public debt. The results from the sequential threshold regression model using the debt to GDP ratio and primary budget surplus identifying the periods of 1991, 1992, 2008, 2009, 2011 and 2019 as times of likely vulnerability to fiscal crisis. The overall results confirmed that the primary surplus remained sustainable over the estimated threshold level of public debt in all other sample periods and these findings persisted across alternative measures of public debt.

THEORY AND PRACTICE OF RUSSIAN PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT

The article considers the approaches to public debt management in Russia, describes the time requirements for the use of various tools. The paper evaluates the dynamics of changes in public debt and its transformation, which consists in the transition from external to internal borrowing. The author denotes problems in the field of underfunding of budget expenditures in connection with the coronavirus pandemic. The study considers all known theories of public debt management and presents the mechanism of their implementation and their impact on the state of public finances. The author makes a summary of the necessary approaches and solutions in the field of borrowing and debt servicing. The paper also presents the direction of changes in the legislation in the field of setting service limits and the total amount of borrowing.

Public debt and economic growth: panel data evidence for Asian countries

This study examines the relationship between public debt on both short and long-run economic growth, in a panel of selected Asian countries for the period of 1980–2012. We employ several econometrics methods: pooled mean group, mean group, dynamic fixed effects and also allow for common correlated effects. The impact of a change in public debt is also analysed using asymmetric panel ARDL method. Our results indicate that an increase in government debt is negatively associated with economic growth in both the short and long-run.

THE MECHANISM OF FISCAL POLICY

The purpose of this article is to study fiscal policy, which is one of the methods of regulating the country's macroeconomic policy. Theoretical approaches of scientists to the definition of the term "fiscal policy" are investigated. The contents and principles of the functioning of the mechanism of fiscal policy are disclosed. Method. Theoretical approaches to the definition of mechanisms and discrete components of the fiscal policy of the state and its criteria characteristics have been developed. The research has been based on the use of a systematic approach to the consideration of fiscal phenomena, on the fundamental principles of economic theory, systems theory, theory of finance, theory of taxes, etc. Results. It is observed that the budget deficit and the national debt are closely linked: the increase in the budget deficit leads to an increase in the national debt. But the absolute magnitude of the budget deficit, and therefore of the public debt, does not provide enough information for economic analysis. It is necessary to know what processes the budget deficit is serving, what changes in the reproduction cycle it reflects. It is also very important to measure changes in public debt in relation to changes in GDP. In addition, the tax burden is increasing as a result of these changes. Value/originality. It is determined that along with the expected changes in the methodology of calculation and procedure of tax payment, taxpayers are also concerned about the question of changing the tariff grid by the total amount of taxes due in absolute terms and in relation to the volume and resultant indicators of production activity (revenue, profit). An innovative tariff policy has been proposed and opportunities for using non-traditional agricultural insurance products have been revealed. Recommendations to improve the fiscal policy of the state have been made. The conceptual platform for harmonizing the mechanism of fiscal policy regarding economic entities is substantiated.

Equity Market Performance and Public Debt: An Empirical Investigation

ABSTRACTWhile the empirical relationship between public debt and economic growth has been well-researched, there is a gap in terms of understanding the relationship between equity market performance and public debt. Based on propositions derived from a theoretical model and using a quarterly unbalanced panel dataset of 56 economies in the period 1995–2017, we examine this nexus by first estimating a threshold value of public debt above which equity market performance is adversely affected by a change in public debt. After that, the dynamics of equity market performance and change in public debt are examined. We estimate the threshold level to be approximately 17.97 percent of GDP. The short-run and long-run multipliers of a one-percent increase in public debt on equity market returns are 11.57–37.59 and 27.51–78.72 percentage points. These dynamics appear to be different between the economies that are below and above the estimated debt threshold.

Fiscal Reaction Functions and Public Debt Sustainability in Nigeria: An Error Correction Mechanism Approach

The pervasiveness and persistent spiral of public debt in the country provide needed insights to determine the tendency for achieving sustainable debt. This, essentially, spurs the study to examine the responsiveness of Nigeria’s fiscal authorities to rising debt accumulation. As such, the study employs conventional unit root and cointegration approaches to estimate the fiscal reaction functions used in the study. Findings suggest that the existence of equilibrium relationship, in the models estimated, signals the fulfillment of the necessary condition for achieving debt sustainability. However, the sufficient condition for a sustainable public debt could not be met; this is evident in the negative response of government primary balances to changes in public debt in the long run. These findings readily affirm that government’s fiscal behaviour is not in tandem with the tenet of the intertemporal budget constraint as fiscal authorities could not generate enough surpluses in reaction to public debt increases. Therefore, there is threat to the feasibility of ensuring a sustainable public debt, importantly, as fiscal pressures and excesses still remain endemic issues. The study concludes that the fiscal operations of Nigerian government cannot sufficiently allow for a sustainable debt; hence, consistent running of this fiscal stance could either spur harsh adjustment measures in the long run or result to insolvency and default.

О БЮДЖЕТНОЙ УСТОЙЧИВОСТИ РЕГИОНОВ

The objective of this work is to examine fiscal sustainability of the Russian regions by means of Bohn test based on the idea that strictly positive and statistically significant reaction of the primary budget balance to changes in public debt is a sufficient condition for fiscal sustainability. To that end we assembled panel data covering 81 subjects (regions) of the Russian Federation for 2006–2017, examined descriptive statistics and used LSDV method to estimate the two-way fixed effects model. Descriptive statistics show that in regional finance large and frequent deficit prevailed over long-term surplus for reasons rooted in fiscal relations between the federal government and regional authorities. The test revealed negative and statistically significant reaction of the primary balance to regional debt, which casts doubt on the ability of regional authorities to pursue sustainable fiscal policies. Their fiscal problems, however, do not boil down to official default on financial and expenditure commitments because the federal center provides generous financial support to the regions and absorbs much of their cost of financing through the system of soft budget constraints cultivated at both levels of government. The ultimate creditor is all tax-paying Russia and, if tax revenues are not enough, the holders of Russia’s public debt.

Fiscal convergence and sustainability in the European Union

This paper analyzes fiscal convergence and sustainability in the European Union using data on government debt, revenues, and expenditures. Absolute fiscal divergence is present in the EU, especially after the sovereign debt crisis. However, we find evidence of fiscal club convergence when clubs are endogenously determined. Club convergence is important for the EU because there is no single fiscal policy and member states’ policies are heterogeneous. Endogenous clubs do not share the usual geographical, political, or development similarities. Fiscal policy in the EU is found to be unsustainable, but it is countercyclical. We use a policy response function where the primary surplus is a function of public debt and the output gap. The primary surplus does not respond to changes in public debt, and this is considered to be unsustainable. However, it increases in expansions and decreases in recessions thus being countercyclical. The countercyclical primary surplus is important for smoothing business cycles.

ASSESSMENT OF THE LINK BETWEEN MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS AND TAX REVENUES OF THE COUNTRY

In any country, the tax system acts as the basis of the economic system. In Poland, the process of improving the tax system is constantly underway. It is aimed at unification with world norms and standards and depends on the strategic directions of the national economic development. Since the opportunities for implementation of the country's strategic development programmes depend on the level of the state income and the main indicators of national development are macroeconomic indicators, the purpose of the paper is to study the relationship between the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and tax revenues of the country. In the research study there were used some general scientific and special methods, such as: systematic method (in the research study of taxes in the structure of budget revenues); comparison, grouping, analysis and synthesis, statistical method (in analysing the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and the volume of tax revenues in the budget of Poland); method of logical generalisation (for the formation of conclusions). The research used data exclusively from the official statistical sources of the Main Statistics Office of Poland, the National Bank of Poland, the Ministry of Finance of Poland. The paper identifies the importance of tax revenues in the revenue part of the budget, analyzes the growth rates of taxes and macroeconomic indicators, establishes a correlation and a regression relationship between gross domestic product, public debt, balance of trade, volume of gold reserves and total tax revenues, and also outlines the level of efficiency of the Polish tax system on the basis of the coefficient of tax elasticity. The results of the research study showed that tax revenues are sensitive to changes in the growth of gross domestic product, as well as changes in public debt, exports and imports, gold and foreign exchange reserves. All the above should take into account the country while being in the budget planning and forecasting process.

Analysing the Theoretical and Empirical Foundations of Public Debt Dynamics in Zimbabwe

This paper provides an analysis of the theoretical and empirical foundations of public debt dynamics in Zimbabwe. The analysis was undertaken by applying the debt dynamics equation that enables estimating the required primary balance, building on the government inter-temporal budget constraint to infer the factors that influence public debt, as well as to ascertain specific policy issues required to ensure a sustainable public debt structure. The results show that debt dynamics in Zimbabwe are largely composed of huge stock flow adjustments to finance social and political related expenditures. Results also indicate that the output gap had a significant influence on public debt dynamics in Zimbabwe. As such, the results underscore the need for prudent debt management to guard against unexpected changes in public debt, which are not explained by fundamentals. The major policy implication from the study is the need to minimize the interest rate growth differential and to implement growth enhancing fiscal policies to ensure a sustainable long term public debt position.

Public Finances and Inflation: The Case of Spain

We empirically explore the influence of inflation on fiscal variables in the short, medium and long run, for the case of the Spanish economy, in particular to draw policy lessons for the design of the ongoing process of rebalancing of fiscal accounts. We focus on this topic through the lenses of: (i) the government budget constraint, to assess the influence of inflation on changes in public debt; (ii) accounting decompositions of nominal revenue and expenditure items into their real and price parts; (iii) a large-scale macroeconometric model that contains a detailed fiscal policy block; and (iv) a long-run accounting model on pension expenditure.

Creative accounting and electoral motives: Evidence from OECD countries

Using an unbalanced panel of 27 OECD countries over the period 1970–2011, I examine whether electoral motives influenced creative accounting. Governments engage in “below-the-line” operations, such as transactions in financial assets, that do not show up in the deficit figures but give rise to changes in debt. I use the difference between the change in public debt and the deficit (stock-flow adjustment) to measure creative accounting. The results suggest that governments strategically engaged in creative accounting before regular elections so as to sugarcoat the budget balance. I also provide an overview of government interventions that gave rise to large stock-flow adjustments.