Change Risk Perceptions Research Articles

Trends and Collaborations in Livestock Extension Research: A Bibliometric Analysis (2015-2024)

This study employs bibliometric analysis to investigate trends in livestock extension research from January 2015 to June 2024, utilizing data sourced from the dimension.ai database. The analysis encompasses a comprehensive review of publication trends, research categories, influential journals, collaborative networks among authors, and the impact of seminal studies. The findings reveal a notable increase of 51.55 per cent in scholarly interest and publications over the years, indicating growing attention towards enhancing livestock productivity, sustainability, and socio-economic outcomes. Key research domains such as agricultural, veterinary, and food sciences emerge as predominant areas of focus, with significant contributions observed in interdisciplinary fields like environmental sciences and human geography. Network analyses using tools like VOSviewer highlight robust collaborative relationships among researchers, identifying central figures and clusters that drive collaborative research efforts in livestock extension. The study also identified “Climate change vulnerability, adaptation and risk perceptions at farm level in Punjab, Pakistan” published in 2016, with nearly 294 citations as top-cited article and other affiliations, emphasizing their pivotal roles in advancing knowledge and practices within the field. Overall, this bibliometric analysis provides valuable insights into the evolving landscape of livestock extension research, demonstrating how such analytical approaches contribute to understanding research trends, fostering interdisciplinary collaborations, and guiding future research directions in agricultural sciences.

Modelling associations between mortality salience, environmental concerns, and climate change risk perception in the context of the pandemic

The pandemic and climate change are mortality salience triggers. Environmental issues, attitudes, and climate change risk perceptions were hypothesised to impact how individuals perceived the threat of COVID-19 and climate change during the pandemic. The study explored: 1.) the associations between seeing a link between COVID-19 and climate change and environmental concerns; 2.) the associations between mortality salience and environmental concerns; 3.) the associations between feeling less worried during the pandemic and environmental concerns; and 4.) what these associations tell us about the relationship between mortality salience, the perceived link between COVID-19 and climate change, and feeling less worried during the pandemic. A sample of 665 respondents was achieved from an online survey in 2021. The results of the multiple regression analysis and structural equation modelling showed that environmental issues, attitudes and perceptions, time spent in nature, and climate change risk perception played a role in the extent to which individuals perceived COVID-19 as an indicator of climate change threats, whether mortality salience was made conscious, and whether there was distancing of concern about climate change and social issues during the pandemic. The study makes an important contribution to understanding psychological processes that are activated during disasters that trigger mortality salience, and how this is impacted by the human-nature nexus, and climate change risk perception.

Perceptual saturation in deterrence: Examining the nonlinear relationships between arrest rate signal and perceptions of risk and reward

PurposeExamining the functional form of the relationships between arrest rate signal and perceptions of risk and reward among active young offenders previously adjudicated of a serious offense. MethodsGeneralized additive mixed models were used to analyze data from 745 individuals in the Pathways to Desistance study. ResultsIncreasing arrest rate had a positive but diminishing nonlinear effect on risk and a negative but approximately linear effect on rewards. A saturation point was observed in the influence of arrest rate on perceptions of risk, where further increases in arrest rate did not correspond to appreciable changes in perceptions of risk. ConclusionsThe findings suggest a potential upper limit to the effectiveness of increased arrest rate in deterring crime through increasing risk perceptions and underscore the need for policy strategies beyond increasing experienced punishment certainty. However, the findings also highlight potential methodological concerns of using arrest rate as a predictor of perceptions, especially among a sample with large variation in offending frequencies. Research should account for the nonlinearity between punishment and perceived risk and reward, especially in samples with heterogeneous offending experience.

The Link Between Climate Change Risk Perception, Strategy, and Performance: A Risk-Based Approach

The Link Between Climate Change Risk Perception, Strategy, and Performance: A Risk-Based Approach

Climate Change and Health Risk Perceptions of Arkansas Small Farmers through the Application of the Health Belief Model.

Climate change poses health risks to Arkansas small farmers. Farmers face an increased risk of heat-related illnesses (e.g., heat exhaustion, cerebral vascular accidents, and cardiovascular issues) and work-related injuries, death, and mental health conditions due to climate change. This cross-sectional survey employed the health belief model (HBM) as its theoretical framework. This study aimed to assess the health status of small farmers, climate change beliefs, adaptive agricultural practices, and the perceived effects of climate change on health. Study data were collected using non-probability sampling methods from small farmers (n = 72) with a gross farm income of < USD 250,000. The study findings show that 93% of participants reported good-excellent health, 69% believe the climate is changing and getting warmer, 58.3% believe people are responsible for the changes in our climate, and 75% believe the changing climate impacts farmers. Among the HBM predictive variables, participants reported self-efficacy (50%), perceived susceptibility (48.6%), and perceived severity (43%). Only 16.7% of farmers reported believing they have all the information needed to prepare for climate-related health impacts. This study suggests small farmers have protective factors and adaptive capacity, including health status, income, and education levels, but believe they lack the information necessary to protect their health from climate change.

Climate change in Tigray, Ethiopia: Assessing impacts on smallholders’ risk perception and food security

Amidst the ongoing global climate change crisis, characterized by unpredictable weather patterns and increasing environmental shocks, farming communities are among the most vulnerable. This vulnerability is particularly evident in Tigray, Ethiopia. This study, which investigates the incidence of climate change and its variability in relation to risk perception and food security of farming communities in Tigray, has significant implications for future action. It uses climate and the Living Standards Measurement Study panel data. A multi-method analytical procedure is employed to assess changes in temperature and rainfall, understand farmers’ climate change risk perception, and signify the welfare effects of droughts on farmers. The study finds significant warming trends, particularly increasing warming nights, and variable but increasing rainfall trends. Farmers do perceive climate change as a reality (85.53%) and a threat to their welfare (23%). Cooperation, diversification, irrigation, wealth, drought, and access to services were identified as drivers of this risk perception. Similarly, the study found drought is a significant driver of food insecurity. Other variables associated with food security status substantially are wealth, head marital status, and non-farm participation. It concludes that climate change is a reality and a perceived risk in Tigray. It poses a threat to the lives and livelihoods of its farming communities. It is recommended that farm households’ adaptive capacity be enhanced through improved livelihood options, promotion of cooperation, development of irrigation schemes, and increased access to weather and climate information.

Understanding the role of hope in climate change risk perception: a cross-sectional study

Italy is experiencing the negative effects of climate change, which is causing considerable damage. Evidence of the damage is increasing citizens’ concern about climate change. According to many researchers, investigating the factors that drive and shape risk perception of climate change is of paramount importance to predicting public willingness to help combat it. Recently, the Climate Change Risk Perception model (CCRPM) was validated, showing its efficacy. However, the CCRPM does not consider some psychological variables related to people’s confidence that climate change can be mitigated. The purpose of the present study is to replicate CCRPM in the Italian context and to shed light on whether the addition of the Climate Change Hope variable can improve the explanatory power of this model. Results indicate that the CCRPM explains 49% of the variance of climate change risk perception and the addition of Climate Change Hope improves the model. Knowledge of impacts of climate change, social norms, value orientations, affect, and personal experience with extreme weather events were all identified as significant predictors. Affective and social norms factors explained significantly more variance in risk perception than other variables. These results suggest that climate change risk perception is a complex and multidimensional construct and that risk communicators should take an integrative approach by stimulating citizens’ affective and experiential processing mechanisms.

A Longitudinal Examination of HIV Risk Perception Accuracy among Sexual Minority Men with History of Childhood Sexual Abuse.

Men who have sex with men (MSM) with history of childhood sexual abuse (CSA) are at high risk for HIV acquisition. One reason is posttraumatic responses compromise ability to accurately appraise risk for danger/vulnerability. Health behavior change models and related interventions assume risk perception can be changed in an enduring manner. Given paucity of studies examining how risk perception changes or sustains over time post-intervention, this underlying assumption is not confirmed. Among this particularly high-risk group who struggle with perceiving risk due to trauma-related cognitions, it may be accuracy of risk perception is fluid. The study primarily aimed to examine accuracy of HIV risk perception over time post-HIV prevention behavioral intervention. Leveraging data from a larger RCT, N = 190 MSM in Boston, MA and Miami, FL USA completed a psychosocial baseline assessment, an intervention aimed to increase awareness of personal HIV risk level, then four follow-up assessments three months apart for a year. Linear mixed effect models were used to examine the degree to which accuracy of HIV risk perception (vs. traditional construct of risk perception with no information about accuracy) predicts sex risk behavior over time delineated by between-person (trait level) and within-person (state level) effects. Majority (92%) of participants fluctuated in HIV risk accuracy over time post-intervention. Within-person risk accuracy (one's accuracy at any given timepoint) predicted sex risk behavior (condomless sex not protected by adherent PrEP) over time, but not between-person (one's average of accuracy). Findings have implications for intervention and counseling related to specific HIV prevention strategies.

Vested Interest Theory as a Framework for Understanding Anthropogenic Climate Change Risk Perceptions

ABSTRACT Climate change due to anthropogenic activities is contributing to the systematic warming of Earth. A warming planet represents an existential threat to humanity, contributing to the increased frequency and magnitude of multiple natural hazards. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) notes that time is running out to create meaningful change to avert climate-related consequences. This research posits Vested Interest Theory (VIT) as a potentially useful framework for assessing attitudes and risk perceptions associated with anthropogenic climate change (ACC). Vested Interest Theory mediates the attitude-behavior relationship where highly vested individuals are more likely to behave in attitudinally-consistent ways. Vestedness is conceptualized as five distinct and observable variables: salience, certainty, immediacy, self-efficacy, and response-efficacy. To test VIT’s efficacy in this context, a survey was conducted with participants crowdsourced from Amazon’s Mechanical Turk platform (N = 1053). Participants responded to items designed to measure their individual vestedness in ACC consequences, risk perceptions, and behavioral intentions. This initial investigation shows that VIT’s constituent variables predict consequential amounts of observed variance in critical variables including risk perception, perceived event severity, and behavioral intentions related to ACC hazard mitigation. The results support the use of VIT as a framework for understanding attitude-behavior relationships associated with ACC mitigation. Based on these findings, we argue that VIT can also serve as a valuable message design framework to motivate ACC-related mitigation actions.

Stimulating the posterior parietal cortex reduces self-reported risk-taking propensity in people with tobacco use disorder

Previous research has identified a replicable role for the posterior parietal cortex (PPC) in risk behaviors, but it is unclear whether this relationship is causal. Here, we used a targeted neuromodulation protocol leveraging a single-session of 10-Hz rTMS to the PPC versus a control region in the visual cortex (V5), as well as two active comparison regions [superior frontal gyrus (SFG), dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC)] (within-person, randomized order), to examine within-session changes in a comprehensive measure of self-reported risk-taking propensity (the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking or DOSPERT scale). Individuals with tobacco use disorder were selected as sample participants who present with clinically relevant risk-taking propensity (N = 50; 14 women, mean [SE] age=33.1 [1.04] years). Results indicated that stimulating the PPC (versus V5) resulted in trend-level reductions in self-reported risk-taking propensity (region-by-time interaction, P = 0.065). A similar pattern emerged comparing PPC stimulation to effects of stimulating either the DLPFC (P = 0.080) or SFG (P = 0.032). PPC-related reductions in risk-taking propensity were domain general and potentially driven by changes in risk perception rather than perceptions of expected benefits of risk-taking. These findings support a possible causal role of the PPC in risk behaviors that warrants further consideration for therapeutic indications in conditions like tobacco use disorder.

The media-psychological model of environmental risk perception

The article presents the results of a theoretical analysis on the topic of media-psychological aspects of the perception of environmental risks and the presentation of the author's media psychological model of the impact of media messages on the perception of environmental risks. The presented model examines the processes and stages involved in the initial encounter with environmental risk messages in the media and the further outcomes of their processing which can manifest in information-seeking behaviour. According to the presented model, changes in risk perception are considered a series of stages initiated by attention to information and can continue when information-seeking behaviour is triggered. The main models relied on by the author of this study are the Limited Capacity Model of Motivated Mediated Message Processing to describe media message processing and the Risk Information Search and Processing Model to describe aspects of information-seeking behaviour. Several additional communication models dedicated to the consideration of information behaviour and processing of media messages were also used to describe the processes of mass media influence on the perception of environmental risks. Thus, dual models of information processing and persuasive communication are also considered, including the Heuristic-Systematic Model and the Elaboration Likelihood Model, as well as additional theories examining information-seeking behaviour: the Theory of Motivated Information Management and the Planned Risk Information Seeking Model

Association between ocean literacy and climate change mitigation efforts in the Republic of Korea

Promoting ocean literacy can lead to numerous benefits, such as improved marine ecosystem comprehension, responsible environmental behavior, and support for marine conservation policies. However, past research focused on the contribution of ocean literacy to the public’s support for marine policy and management, failing to expand the concept to broader issues like climate change. This study aims to assess people’s ocean literacy and its association with climate change mitigation behaviors, using a nationally representative survey that collected 2000 responses in the Republic of Korea in November 2022. The results provide evidence that people with a better understanding of the ocean are more likely to follow recommendations for climate change mitigation, including reducing disposable products, using public transportation, and using eco-friendly products. This association was robust against varying levels of climate change risk perception. These findings imply that promoting public ocean literacy can be an effective strategy for encouraging people to engage in efforts to mitigate climate change in their daily lives.

Extreme weather experience and climate change risk perceptions: The roles of partisanship and climate change cause attribution

Climate change risk perceptions are crucial in influencing individuals' behavioral changes and shaping policy preferences for climate change mitigation. Experience of recent extreme weather events may enhance people's awareness of climate change and thus alter their attitudes toward climate change. This study examines the correlations between extreme weather experience and climate change risk perceptions using Australia's most recent representative national survey data (2020 Australian Survey of Social Attitudes). The results demonstrate that the positive effect of extreme weather experience on climate change risk perceptions, both to the World and to Australia, became nonsignificant when all variables were controlled. Notably, extreme weather experiences amplified the perceptions of climate change risk among individuals without party affiliations, but they did not affect those with solid party affiliations, neither with the National-Liberal Coalition nor Labor or the Greens. Furthermore, the impact of extreme weather experiences on climate change risk perceptions is not direct but primarily indirect through individuals' cause attribution of climate change. This paper provides valuable insights into the linkage mechanism between extreme weather experience and climate change risk perceptions.

Incorporating Cardiovascular Risk Assessment into Adolescent Reproductive Health and Primary Care Visits

Study ObjectiveThis study aimed to evaluate the usability and feasibility of incorporating a cardiovascular risk assessment tool into adolescent reproductive health and primary care visits. Design, Setting, and ParticipantsWe recruited 60 young women ages 13-21 years to complete the HerHeart web-tool in 2 adolescent clinics in Atlanta, GA.Main Outcome Measures: Participants rated the tool's usability via the Website Analysis and Measurement Inventory (WAMMI, range 0-95) and their perceived 10-year and lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) on a visual analog scale (range 0-10). Participants’ perceived risk, blood pressure, and body mass index were measured at baseline and 3 months after enrollment. Health care providers (HCP, n = 5) completed the WAMMI to determine the usability and feasibility of incorporating the HerHeart tool into clinical practice. ResultsAdolescent participants and HCPs rated the tool's usability highly on the WAMMI with a median of 79 (interquartile range [IQR] 65, 84) and 76 (IQR 71, 84). At the baseline visit, participants’ median perceived 10-year risk of a heart attack was 1 (IQR 0, 3), and perceived lifetime risk was 2 (IQR 0, 4). Immediately after engaging with the tool, participants’ median perceived 10-year risk was 2 (IQR 1, 4.3), and perceived lifetime risk was 3 (IQR 1.8, 6). Thirty-one participants chose to set a behavior change goal, and 12 participants returned for follow-up. Clinical metrics were similar at the baseline and follow-up visits. ConclusionHerHeart is acceptable to young women and demonstrates potential for changing risk perception and improving health habits to reduce risk of CVD. Future research should focus on improving retention in studies to promote cardiovascular health within reproductive health clinics.

Parameter estimation in behavioral epidemic models with endogenous societal risk-response.

Behavioral epidemic models incorporating endogenous societal risk-response, where changes in risk perceptions prompt adjustments in contact rates, are crucial for predicting pandemic trajectories. Accurate parameter estimation in these models is vital for validation and precise projections. However, few studies have examined the problem of identifiability in models where disease and behavior parameters must be jointly estimated. To address this gap, we conduct simulation experiments to assess the effect on parameter estimation accuracy of a) delayed risk response, b) neglecting behavioral response in model structure, and c) integrating disease and public behavior data. Our findings reveal systematic biases in estimating behavior parameters even with comprehensive and accurate disease data and a well-structured simulation model when data are limited to the first wave. This is due to the significant delay between evolving risks and societal reactions, corresponding to the duration of a pandemic wave. Moreover, we demonstrate that conventional SEIR models, which disregard behavioral changes, may fit well in the early stages of a pandemic but exhibit significant errors after the initial peak. Furthermore, early on, relatively small data samples of public behavior, such as mobility, can significantly improve estimation accuracy. However, the marginal benefits decline as the pandemic progresses. These results highlight the challenges associated with the joint estimation of disease and behavior parameters in a behavioral epidemic model.

Analyzing road user risk perception among Indian drivers on varying curve geometry: A structural equation modeling approach

Driver risk perception ability depends on how they perceive and interpret information from different sources to safely and comfortably operate their vehicles based on the highway features ahead. The present study is divided into two parts to review these aspects: (a) identifying the factors that influence driver risk-taking behavior, and (b) evaluating the soundness of the identified factors by comparing them with quantitative risk perception. For that, 1075 user perception data were collected using a developed questionnaire form through face-to-face interviews. A questionnaire form consists of a total of 33 questions/variables. After applying the factor reduction techniques, namely principal component analysis, the most significant variables (19 questions/variables) influencing the user’s perception are identified. Then, considering these significant variables, five separate risk perception models were developed using the Structural Equation Modeling technique for five varying curve geometries. The results revealed that the user’s risk perception changes for the same user for varying curve geometry. It is also identified that male drivers have more risky behavior (lower risk perception) than female drivers. Besides, Garrett’s ranking technique is also adopted to rank the user risk perception for the varying curve geometry to identify the dangerous curves by assigning the rank. Lastly, to check the feasibility of the results, the risk perception score is also compared with the quantitative risk score. Based on the study results, it is concluded that the study findings will be helpful for highway planners and authorities to introduce some safety measures to alert users of the potential hazards on the roadside and increase their capacity for taking risks on complex curves; hence, the likelihood of crashes can be minimized.

DIY your captures when everything else fails: Description of an artisanal dart launcher with an assessment of the medium‐term response in a primate

AbstractWhen our dart guns failed in Morocco, we devised an artisanal pressurised air launcher to replace them. The effective shooting range was between 12 and 20 m, which made it possible to capture wild Barbary macaques (Macaca sylvanus), from groups that would not allow for a closer approach or enter any trap. To assess the effect of that method of capture, we monitored the groups on foot before and after the captures. We looked for evidence of a change in risk perception after the captures. We did not uncover any such evidence in the step lengths, turning angles, home range area, frequency of rest while on the ground or frequency of social interactions. We conclude that for the study animals, being captured with our artisanal dart launcher, had a similar effect to being darted with a professional gun, and we intend this note as an inspiration to other field operators finding themselves in a similar predicament.

Exploring risk-scapes in Oklahoma: institutional trust, environmental justice, climate change, and infrastructure

PurposeAcross the USA, local municipalities and providers struggle to reliably supply water and electricity when faced with severe weather events induced by climate change. Previous research suggests those at higher risk for experiencing the detrimental effects of climate change have higher climate-related concerns. Additionally, research demonstrates variation in trust in institutions and perceptions of environmental justice along racial lines, which can influence concern for access to resources. Informed by this research, the authors ask two questions: how do Oklahomans’ trust in institutions, environmental justice perceptions and global climate change risk perceptions differ based on race, and how do these factors influence concern for water and electrical infrastructure? The purpose of this study is to better understand Oklahomans’ trust in information from institutions, environmental justice perceptions, global climate change risk perceptions and concern for water and electrical infrastructure.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses a series of nested regression models to analyze the survey responses of 2,687 Oklahoman adults. The data were pulled from Wave 3 of the Oklahoma Meso-scale Integrated Socio-geographic Network survey, which is part of the National Science Foundation EPSCoR S3OK project.FindingsThe findings demonstrate the complex interplay of riskscapes – or risk landscapes – that encompass institutional trust, perceptions of environmental justice, climate change and infrastructure in Oklahoma. The authors find evidence that education and income are better predictors of institutional trust and environmental justice than race among our respondents. Political ideology emerges as a significant predictor across all hypotheses.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the understanding of complex dynamics involving race, perceptions of environmental justice, trust in information from institutions, risk perceptions of climate change and concerns for water and electrical infrastructure in Oklahoma.

Pre- and post-pandemic risk perceptions and worries.

The present study is a cross-sectional investigation of worry and risk perceptions regarding various hazards and destinations, measured before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Questionnaire data were collected from tourists in Norway during the summer seasons of 2012 (N = 2,669), 2019 (N = 1,666), and 2022 (N = 956), and from a representative sample of Norwegians in 2020 (N = 1,003). The results show a general decline in the level of worry and risk perceptions post-pandemic compared to those pre-pandemic, with the exception of infectious diseases, whose perceived risk slightly increased in 2022. The results highlight the importance of employing cross-sectional or longitudinal data to investigate changes in risk perceptions over time. The findings also indicate that pessimistic predictions of a continued decline in tourism appear to be unwarranted.

Consumers' risk perception, market demand, and firm innovation: Evidence from China.

Major product safety incidents often cause widespread concern among consumers, and these product safety incidents will stimulate consumers' psychology, change their risk perception, and affect the demand for products and services of risk consumers. The change in consumer demand will eventually lead to a change in firm innovation decisions. Using Chinese firm-level data, this paper employs the news reporting of the Bawang event as a quasi-natural experiment to study the impact of risk perception changes on innovation. The empirical results of this study show that increasing consumers' risk perception caused by the negative news coverage of defective products motivates firms to increase their innovation. The effects are heterogeneous, where firms with private ownership and in developed regions are more likely to increase innovation activities. This study suggests that the relationship between consumers' risk perception and firm innovation is primarily driven by market demand. Moreover, the positive effects of risk perception on innovation are more prominent for downstream firms and those having a smaller technological distance.