Changes In Moisture Sources Research Articles

Seasonal Variations and Controls on Triple Oxygen and Hydrogen Isotopes in Precipitation—A Case Study From Monitoring in Southwest China

AbstractPrecipitation δ18O has offered valuable insights into the evolution of the Asian monsoon. Recent researches focusing on precipitation Δ′17O has enhanced our understanding by offering new perspectives beyond those of δ18O, revealing insights into vapor sources and continental recycling. Nevertheless, there remains a lack of interannual triple oxygen isotope data, particularly in the Asian monsoon region. In this study, we analyzed the triple oxygen isotopes and hydrogen isotopes in monthly precipitation samples collected from Chongqing in Southwest China between 2019 and 2022 A.D. Seasonal variations in δD, δ18O, δ17O, and d‐excess values were observed, with lower values during the rainy season and higher values during the dry season, highlighting the impact of changes in moisture sources and local meteorological conditions on seasonal shifts in δD, δ18O, and δ17O. While, mean Δ′17O values were higher in rainy season and lower in dry season. Notably, during rainy season, there is a negative correlation between monthly Δ′17O values and the RH of the vapor source area, as well as a positive correlation with d‐excess. Recalculated Δ′17O values based on RH of oceanic moisture source, are higher than the measured values for this period, indicating the contribution of terrigenous moisture to precipitation in SW China. Precipitation Δ′17O values provide a more precise reflection of changes in moisture source, continental recycling, and evapotranspiration processes that drive water cycling compared Integrating modeling works in future will facilitate the use of precipitation Δ′17O values to quantify the impact of different moisture source on precipitation.

Transmission characteristics and the factors influencing stable oxygen isotopes in precipitation, soil water, and drip water in Remi Cave, Western Hunan, China

Understanding the modern transport processes of δ18O between different waters in cave systems can provide a basis for the paleoenvironmental interpretation of records of stalagmite δ18O. We conducted monthly in-situ monitoring of local precipitation, soil water at three different soil depths, five drip water sites and environmental parameters in Remi cave, Western Hunan Province, Central China, from December 2020 to January 2024. During the monitoring period, due to differences in geological structure and ventilation effect at different locations within the cave, cave air temperature and relative humidity gradually remained constant from the cave entrance to the deep parts of the cave. On intra-annual timescales, precipitation δ18Op were depleted in the wet season and enriched in the dry season, which were mainly controlled by changes in moisture sources, upstream convective activity, and rainout effects. With the increasing thickness of the soil layer above the cave, soil water δ18Osoil gradually became negative and leveled off, possibly because shallow soil water responded sensitively to local year-round precipitation, accompanied by surface evaporation. While, deep soil water with more negative δ18O, may be mainly replenished by heavy precipitation during the wet season, but the effect of water retained in the soil from preceding years couldn’t be excluded and would be needed to verify by conducting more monitoring studies on the variation of δ18Osoil covering the long period. The mean δ18O values of drip water at sites D1 and D2 near the cave entrance were heavier than that of shallow soil water and precipitation, possibly due to evaporation from the thin overlying soil layer, together with ventilation effect. There were seasonal variations of δ18Od values at site D5 in the deep parts of the cave, which may be associated with the seasonal variation of drip rate at this site. Due to the smoothing effect of soil layer and epikarst zone, there were no seasonality in δ18Od values at sites D3 and D4, in the middle and deep parts of the cave. The mean δ18Od at these two sites were lighter than amount-weighted annual mean δ18Op, and close to the deep δ18Osoil and the wet-season amount-weighted mean δ18Op values. This suggests that the thick soil layer overlying the cave raises the precipitation threshold, causing these sites to be mainly recharged by heavy rainfall in the wet season. Therefore, the δ18O of stalagmites growing under these drip sites may mainly inherit the wet-season δ18Op signal. The short monitoring period of this study (three years) and the lack of modern calcite δ18O data, mean that caution is need in interpreting stalagmite δ18O on a timescale longer than that of this study.

Changes in moisture sources contributed to the onset and development of the 2017-2019 southeast Australian drought

In 2017-2019 southeast Australia experienced one of its most severe droughts since 1900. Rainfall over the region encompassing the Murray-Darling Basin was consistently below average for three consecutive cool seasons, an unprecedented event on record. A strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole event has been previously suggested to have intensified the conditions of the drought in 2019, however the state of the climate drivers cannot fully explain the onset and development of this drought. In this study, we adopt a different approach to investigate processes other than remote climate drivers that may have triggered the drought. Using a Lagrangian model to identify moisture sources to the Murray Darling Basin, we show that local processes were crucial in explaining the onset and development of the drought. We identify the oceanic and terrestrial sources of atmospheric moisture over the Murray Darling Basin and show for the first time a significant decline in rainfall moisture supply from the Tasman Sea in 2017 and 2018. We further show that anomalous atmospheric circulation transported the expected moisture northward toward the Maritime Continent. Our results provide an explanation for the moisture and rainfall deficit that caused the 2017-19 southeast Australian drought. Understanding the processes that led to the 2017-2019 drought is an important step towards improved predictions and planning for future multi-year droughts in Australia.

Spring tropical cyclones modulate near-surface isotopic compositions of atmospheric water vapour in Kathmandu, Nepal

Abstract. While westerlies are recognized as a significant moisture transport in Nepal during the pre-monsoon season, precipitation is also attributed to moisture from cyclones originating in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) or the Arabian Sea (AS). Tropical cyclones exhibit negative isotopic values in both precipitation and atmospheric water vapour; however, the factors influencing isotopic fractionation during tropical cyclones remain poorly understood. We present the results of continuous measurements of the isotopic composition of atmospheric water vapour (δ18Ov, δDv, and d-excessv) in Kathmandu from 7 May to 7 June 2021 during two pre-monsoon cyclones: cyclone Tauktae, formed over the Arabian Sea, and cyclone Yaas, formed over the Bay of Bengal. Our study reveals that tropical cyclones originating from the BoB and the AS during the pre-monsoon season modulate isotopic signals of near-surface atmospheric water vapour in Nepal. Comparing conditions before and after, we observed a significant depletion of δ18Ov and δDv during both cyclones, attributed to changes in moisture sources (local vs. marine). Convective activity plays a pivotal role in the variability of δ18Ov and δDv during both cyclones, confirmed by the spatial variations of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and regional precipitation during both cyclones. We also found a significant negative correlation between δ18Ov and/or δDv and rainfall amount along the trajectories during cyclone Tauktae, probably resulting from integrated upstream processes linked to the earlier Rayleigh distillation of water vapour via rainfall rather than local rainfall. The decrease in δ18Ov and/or δDv during cyclone Yaas is associated with the intensified convection and moisture convergence at the measurement site, while the lower cloud top temperatures (CTTs) and lower cloud top pressure (CTP) during intense convection contribute to higher d-excessv values during the final stage of cyclone Yaas. This characteristic is missing during cyclone Tauktae. Our results shed light on key processes governing the isotopic composition of atmospheric water vapour in Kathmandu with implications for the monsoon moisture transport and paleoclimate reconstructions of tropical cyclone activity.

Deciphering stable water isotope records of firn cores from a strongly maritime, high-accumulation site on the Antarctic Peninsula

Abstract Stable water isotope records of six firn cores retrieved from two adjacent plateaus on the northern Antarctic Peninsula between 2014 and 2016 are presented and investigated for their connections with firn-core glacio-chemical data, meteorological records and modelling results. Average annual accumulation rates of 2500 kg m−2 a−1 largely reduce the modification of isotopic signals in the snowpack by post-depositional processes, allowing excellent signal preservation in space and time. Comparison of firn-core and ECHAM6-wiso modelled δ18O and d-excess records reveals a large agreement on annual and sub-annual scales, suggesting firn-core stable water isotopes to be representative of specific synoptic situations. The six firn cores exhibit highly similar isotopic patterns in the overlapping period (2013), which seem to be related to temporal changes in moisture sources rather than local near-surface air temperatures. Backward trajectories calculated with the HYSPLIT model suggest that prominent δ18O minima in 2013 associated with elevated sea salt concentrations are related to long-range moisture transport dominated by westerly winds during positive SAM phases. In contrast, a broad δ18O maximum in the same year accompanied by increased concentrations of black carbon and mineral dust corresponds to the advection of more locally derived moisture with northerly flow components (South America) when the SAM is negative.

A Precipitation Isotopic Response in 2014–2015 to Moisture Transport Changes in the Central Himalayas

AbstractThe impact of moisture transport and sources on precipitation stable isotopes (δ18O and d‐excess) in the central Himalayas are crucial to understanding the climatic archives. However, this is still unclear due to the lack of in‐situ observations. Here we present measurements of stable isotopes in precipitation at two stations (Yadong and Pali) in the central Himalayas during 2014–2015. Combined with simulations from the dispersion model FLEXPART, we investigate effects on precipitation stable isotopes related to changes in moisture sources and convections in the region, and possible influence by El Niño. Our results suggest that the moisture supplies related to evaporation over northeastern India and moisture losses related to convective activities over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Bangladesh region play important roles in changes in δ18O and d‐excess in precipitation in the Yadong Valley. Outgoing longwave radiation and moisture flux divergence analysis further confirm that the contribution from continental evaporation dominates the moisture supply in the central Himalayas with a lesser contribution from convection over the BoB during the 2015 monsoon season compared with 2014. A change in the altitude effect is observed in 2015, which is more significant than the temperature and precipitation amount effect during the observation period. These findings provide valuable insights into climatic interpretations of paleo‐isotopic archives with an isotopic response to changes in moisture transport to the central Himalayas.

Quantifying source effects based on rainwater δ18O from 10-year monitoring records in Southwest China

The stable isotopic composition of rainwater (δ18Op and δDp) has been considered an effective proxy in studying atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle processes. However, the linkage between variabilities in moisture sources and δ18Op remains poorly understood in Southwest China. Here, we utilized three long-term (10-year) δ18Op records (Beibei, Furong, and Yangkou stations) in Chongqing, Southwest China, from 2010 to 2019 A.D., integrated with a cluster analysis based on the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) to quantitatively demonstrate the close remote coupling of moisture sources and δ18Op on seasonal and interannual timescales. The clustering calculation results indicated that the percentage initial moisture source proportions of the westerlies and Asian summer monsoon have changed significantly at seasonal and interannual timescales, leading to the significant variation in δ18Op in Southwest China. Domination of westerlies and inland moisture contribution resulted in the positive δ18Op excursion in the dry season (November, December, January–April) while prevailing oceanic moisture led to the negative δ18Op excursions in the rainy season (May–October). On the interannual scale, δ18Op and d-excess exhibited a persistent positive/high trend, which is consistent with a decrease/increase in water vapor contributions from the ocean/westerly sources. Furthermore, δ18Op showed a good correlation with the Indian Ocean Dipole index, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and the South Asian monsoon index, indicating that large-scale circulation patterns may affect regional δ18Op through their influence on moisture transport and convective activity in the source region. The long-term observation confirmed changes in moisture sources largely depend on the Westerly and Indian monsoon dynamics controlled by ocean-atmosphere circulation, supporting the effects of moisture sources on the rainwater isotopic composition.

Relative Contribution of Moisture Transport during TC-Active and TC-Inactive Periods to the Precipitation in Henan Province of North China: Mean State and an Extreme Event

Abstract A Lagrangian model—the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT)—is used to quantify changes in moisture sources and paths for precipitation over North China’s Henan Province associated with tropical cyclone (TC) over the western North Pacific (WNP) during July–August of 1979–2021. During TC-active periods, an anomalous cyclone over the WNP enhances southeasterly and reduces southwesterly moisture transport to Henan. Accordingly, compared to TC-inactive periods, moisture contributions from the Pacific Ocean (PO), eastern China (EC), and the local area (Local) are significantly enhanced by 48.32% (16.73% versus 11.28%), 20.42% (9.44% versus 7.84%), and 2.89% (4.91% versus 4.77%), respectively, while moisture contributions from the Indian Ocean (IO), Southwestern China (SWC), Eurasia (EA), and the South China Sea (SCS) are significantly reduced by −31.90% (8.61% versus 12.64%), −16.27% (4.60% versus 5.50%), −8.81% (19.10% versus 20.95%), and −6.92% (12.18% versus 13.09%). Furthermore, the moisture transport for a catastrophic extreme rainfall event during 17–22 July (“21⋅7” event) influenced by Typhoon Infa is investigated. Compared to the mean state during TC-active periods, the moisture contribution from the PO was substantially increased by 126.32% (37.87% versus 16.73%), while that from IO significantly decreased by −98.26% (0.15% versus 8.61%) during the “21⋅7” event. Analyses with a bootstrap resampling method show that moisture contributions from the PO fall outside the +6σ range, for both the TC-active and TC-inactive probability distributions. Thus, the “21⋅7” event is rare and extreme in terms of the moisture contribution from the PO, with the occurrence probability being less than 1 in 1 million times. Significance Statement Henan, one of the most populated provinces in China, experienced a catastrophic extreme precipitation event in July 2021 (the “21⋅7” event), coinciding with the activity of a tropical cyclone (TC) over the western North Pacific, which helps establish the moisture channel. Using a Lagrangian model, we provide a better understanding of how moisture transport changes associated with TC for the mean state of 1979–2021, and reveal how extreme is the moisture transport for the “21⋅7” event with the bootstrap technique. It is found that during active TC periods, the moisture contribution from the Pacific Ocean (the Indian Ocean) is significantly enhanced (reduced). For every 1 000 000 six-day events, less than one instance like the “21⋅7” event should be expected.

Changes in Moisture Sources of Atmospheric Rivers Landfalling the Iberian Peninsula With WRF‐FLEXPART

AbstractThis paper makes use of a combination of FLEXPART‐WRF simulations forced with ERA5 and the CESM2 model—incorporated in the CMIP6 project—to infer a series of changes over the present century in the behavior of the landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) arriving to the Iberian Peninsula. In addition, future changes in the intensity and position of their main moisture sources are studied. In overall terms, there is a noticeable increase in the amount of moisture transported by ARs in the study region, particularly accentuated by the end of the century. However, no significant changes in the number of events are observed. A northward shift of both the mean position of the ARs as well as their main sources of moisture is also detected, particularly for the end of the century, and in the summer and fall months. In relation to the latter, an increase in the contribution of moisture contribution is also observed, quantitatively compatible with Clausius‐Clapeyron amplification.

Weak precipitation δ2H response to large Holocene hydroclimate changes in eastern North America

In eastern North America, annual precipitation increased by >40% over the Holocene, largely in response to melting of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The change substantially raised lake levels and transformed conifer-dominated ecosystems into mesic deciduous forests. δ2H values of terrestrially derived leaf-wax n-alkanes can facilitate diagnoses of the climate dynamics involved by reconstructing δ2H values of mean annual precipitation (δ2HMAP). However, competing influences on δ2HMAP values in the mid-latitudes, such as changes in moisture sources and in the seasonal distribution of precipitation, can generate confounding effects. To test δ2HMAP sensitivity to potential changes associated with the final Holocene phases of deglaciation in eastern North America, we used 14 fossil-pollen records to reconstruct monthly precipitation changes and to model δ2HMAP values during the Holocene. The pollen-inferred precipitation increased by 100–200 mm during both cold and warm seasons, but modeled δ2HMAP values changed by only ∼10‰, because isotopically-heavy summer precipitation increased by nearly as much as the cold-season isotopically-light winter precipitation. Three new leaf wax n-C29-alkane (δ2HC29) records spanning the Holocene from Vermont, Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts closely follow modeled δ2HMAP trends and confirm only a small decline in δ2HMAP values over the Holocene. Because the shifts in precipitation seasonality accurately predict the n-alkane records, changes in moisture sources or pathways appear to play only a minor role in the regional δ2HMAP history despite the effects of deglaciation on atmospheric circulation. Soil evaporation also did not significantly alter δ2HC29 values from the values predicted using the pollen-derived reconstructions. The results affirm that δ2HC29 values faithfully detected anticipated isotopic changes in δ2HMAP values, but that important paleoclimate events may not always yield strong changes in δ2HMAP values.

Interdecadal to Centennial Climate Variability Surrounding the 8.2 ka Event in North China Revealed Through an Annually Resolved Speleothem Record From Beijing

AbstractThe 8.2 ka event has been extensively studied, whereas its structure is ambiguous in North China. Here we present a high‐resolution (∼1 year) δ18O record from annual laminated speleothem from Beijing to characterize the detailed variability across this event in North China. Our record indicates a dry 8.2 ka event spanning 8.254–8.107 ka BP with a two‐stage structure superimposed by three prominent high δ18O excursions. The identical structure of speleothem δ18O records between North and central China during the event suggests a common forcing/response in East China, whereas the progressively increased offset between their average values may reflect changes in moisture source or rainout effect. A close comparison with the Greenland ice core records suggests a strong linear response of the Asian summer monsoon to the North Atlantic climate changes across the early and middle stages of the event, but a different mechanism in the termination processes.

Isotope composition of daily precipitation from 2019 to 2020 in Sanming, southeastern China

Introduction: Many studies in southeastern China (SEC) have used stable isotope (δD and δ18O) records from natural archives (e.g., stalagmites, tree-ring cellulose, sediments) to reconstruct past East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) climate. However, the interpretation of the meanings of isotope variation in these records has not been fully resolved, and the key to solve this problem is to clarify the referential meaning of modern precipitation isotopes.Methods: In this study, we collected daily precipitation from January 2019 to December 2020 in Sanming to clarify the characteristics of isotope variations and their controlling factors during different seasonal periods [e.g., non-summer monsoon (NSM) and summer monsoon (SM)] in SEC.Results and Discussion: Our results show that the precipitation δ18O (δ18Op) and d-excess values in the SM season (−12.94‰–0.15‰, −4.05‰–21.01‰) were more light than those in the NSM season (−6.91‰–4.37‰, 0.85‰–30.38‰). Combining the findings of backward trajectory and averaged outgoing longwave radiation analyses, the seasonal variation of precipitation isotopes is believed to be determined by a shift in water vapor sources and the intensity of upstream atmospheric convection during water vapor transportation. The consistent variation between the isotope values and convective intensity over the South China Sea in the dragon boat rainy period highlights that δ18Op has the potential to respond rapidly to the upstream convective intensity and can serve as a substitute method for investigating the complicated East Asian summer monsoon system. Therefore, the results of this study imply that the stable isotopes in precipitation and related paleoclimate proxies may not reflect the signal of temperature or precipitation alone but rather reflect changes in moisture sources and upstream convective intensity.

Projected Changes in the East Asian Hydrological Cycle for Different Levels of Future Global Warming

Recent decades have shown significant changes to the hydrological cycle over East Asia (EA), and further changes are expected due to future global warming. This study evaluates projected seasonal changes in the EA hydrological cycle using simulations that are 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C and 3.0 ∘C warmer than pre-industrial, from the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) Global Ocean Mixed Layer model version 2.0 (GOML2.0), compared against present-day conditions. The moisture sources of the warming-induced precipitation changes are identified over five hydrologically unique regions within EA. Precipitation over EA increases with warming (except over southeastern EA in the spring and autumn) due to the intensified hydrological cycle. The projected seasonal changes in the hydrological cycle are usually nonlinear, with the rate of change between 1.5 ∘C and 2.0 ∘C larger than the rate of change between 2.0 ∘C and 3.0 ∘C of warming. The warming-induced precipitation increases are mainly associated with an increase in remote moisture convergence rather than local moisture recycling, except over the Tibetan Plateau. Decomposition of the changes in moisture sources by direction and flux component indicate that changes from the west are dominated by changes to moisture and changes from the north are more circulation driven. The changes from the south are moisture driven over southern EA and driven by moisture and circulation change over northern EA. Our results highlight the regionally and seasonally diverse projected changes to the EA hydrological cycle due to global warming, which will be useful for region-specific climate mitigation policies and the implementation of seasonally varying adaptation methods.

Analysis of Kenya’s Atmospheric Moisture Sources and Sinks

Abstract Achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is contingent on understanding the potential interactions among human and natural systems. In Kenya, the goal of conserving and expanding forest cover to achieve SDG 15 “Life on Land” may be related to other SDGs because it plays a role in regulating some aspects of Kenyan precipitation. We present a 40-yr analysis of the sources of precipitation in Kenya and the fate of the evaporation that arises from within Kenya. Using MERRA-2 climate reanalysis and the Water Accounting Model 2 layers, we examine the annual and seasonal changes in moisture sources and sinks. We find that most of Kenya’s precipitation originates as oceanic evaporation but that 10% of its precipitation originates as evaporation within Kenya. This internal recycling is concentrated in the mountainous and forested Kenyan highlands, with some locations recycling more than 15% of evaporation to Kenyan precipitation. We also find that 75% of Kenyan evaporation falls as precipitation elsewhere over land, including 10% in Kenya, 25% in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and around 5% falling in Tanzania and Uganda. Further, we find a positive relationship between increasing rates of moisture recycling and fractional forest cover within Kenya. By beginning to understand both the seasonal and biophysical interactions taking place, we may begin to understand the types of leverage points that exist for integrated atmospheric water cycle management. These findings have broader implications for disentangling environmental management and conservation and have relevance for large-scale discussions about sustainable development.

Southern Baffin Island mean annual precipitation isotopes modulated by summer and autumn moisture source changes during the past 5800 years

ABSTRACTPaleo water isotope records can elucidate how the Arctic water cycle responded to past climate changes. We analyze the hydrogen isotope composition (δ2H) of plant‐derived n‐alkanoic acids (waxes) from Lake Qaupat, Baffin Island, Nunavut, Canada, to assess moisture sources and seasonality during the past 5.8 ka. We compare this record to a sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA)‐inferred vascular plant record from the same lake, aiming to overcome the uncertainty of plant community impacts on leaf waxes. As the sedaDNA record reveals a stable plant community after the colonization of Betula sp. at 6.1 ka, we interpret plant wax δ2H values to reflect climate, specifically mean annual precipitation δ2H. However, the distributions of n‐alkanoic acid homologs suggest that aquatic mosses, which are not represented in the sedaDNA record, may become more abundant towards the present. Therefore, we cannot exclude the possibility that changes in the plant community cause changes in the plant wax δ2H record, particularly long‐chain waxes, which become less abundant through this record. We find that Lake Qaupat mid‐chain plant wax δ2H is enriched coincident with high Labrador Sea summer surface temperature, which suggests that local moisture sources in summer and early autumn have the greatest impact on precipitation isotopes in this region.

Isotopic analysis to quantify the role of the Indian monsoon on water resources of selected river basins in the Himalayas

AbstractWestern disturbances (WDs) and Indian summer monsoon (ISM) led precipitation play a central role in the Himalayan water budget. Estimating their contributions to water resource is although a challenging but essential for hydrologic understanding and effective water resource management. In this study, we used stable water isotope data of precipitation and surface waters to estimate the contribution of ISM and WDs to the water resources in three mountainous river basins ‐ Indus, Bhagirathi and Teesta river basins of western, central and Eastern Himalayas. The study reveals distinct seasonality in isotope characteristics of precipitation and surface waters in each river basin is due to changes in moisture source, hydrometeorology and relief. Despite steady spatial variance in the slope and intercept of regression lines from the Teesta to Indus and the Bhagirathi river basins, the slope and intercept are close to the global meteoric water line and reported local meteoric water line of other regions in the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau. The two‐component end‐member mixing method using d‐excess as tracer were used to estimate the contribution from ISM and WD led precipitation to surface water in aforementioned river basins. The results suggest that the influence of the ISM on the water resources is high (>72% to annual river flow) in Teesta river basin (eastern Himalayas), while as the WDs led precipitation is dominantly contributing (>70% average annual river flow) to the surface waters in the Indus river basin (western Himalayas). The contribution of ISM and WD led precipitation in Bhagirathi river basin is 60% and 40%, respectively. The findings demonstrate that the unusual changes in the ISM and WD moisture dynamics have the potential to affect the economy and food security of the region, which is dependent on the availability of water resources. The obtained results are of assistance to policy makers/mangers to make use of the information for better understanding hydrologic response amid unusual behaviour of the dual monsoon system over the region.

Imprint of the Pacific Walker Circulation in Global Precipitation δ18O

AbstractCharacterizing variability in the global water cycle is fundamental to predicting impacts of future climate change; understanding the role of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) in the regional expression of global water cycle changes is critical to understanding this variability. Water isotopes are ideal tracers of the role of the PWC in global water cycling because they retain information about circulation-dependent processes including moisture source, transport, and delivery. We collated publicly available measurements of precipitation δ18O (δ18OP) and used novel data processing techniques to synthesize long (34 yr), globally distributed composite records from temporally discontinuous δ18OP measurements. We investigated relationships between global-scale δ18OP variability and PWC strength, as well as other possible drivers of global δ18OP variability—including El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global mean temperature—and used isotope-enabled climate model simulations to assess potential biases arising from uneven geographical distribution of the observations or our data processing methodology. Covariability underlying the δ18OP composites is more strongly correlated with the PWC (r = 0.74) than any other index of climate variability tested. We propose that the PWC imprint in global δ18OP arises from multiple complementary processes, including PWC-related changes in moisture source and transport length, and a PWC- or ENSO-driven “amount effect” in tropical regions. The clear PWC imprint in global δ18OP implies a strong PWC influence on the regional expression of global water cycle variability on interannual to decadal time scales, and hence that uncertainty in the future state of the PWC translates to uncertainties in future changes in the global water cycle.

Paleohydrological dynamics in the Western Mediterranean during the last glacial cycle

The transitional regions between the low and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are highly vulnerable to future climate change yet most of the current climate models usually diverge in their projections. To better understand the dynamics in these regions, the reconstruction of past hydrological fluctuations and precipitation patterns is of paramount importance to accurately constrain present and future climate scenarios. In this study, we investigated paleohydrological dynamics in the western Mediterranean region, a transitional zone between low-mid latitudes and Atlantic - Mediterranean realms. We reconstruct precipitation and moisture source changes during the last ~35 ka in order to propose the potential mechanisms driving these oscillations. To do so, we use hydrogen isotopes from sedimentary leaf waxes, more specifically the C31 n-alkane homologue, and a precipitation proxy based on previously published pollen data from a sedimentary core (Padul-15-05) in southern Iberia (Padul wetland ~37° N). With this combination we disentangle the coupled effect of precipitation amount and source on the hydrogen isotopic signature of the studied C31 n-alkane record. Our results show three main periods characterized by different precipitation patterns. Low precipitation, mainly linked to a significant contribution from an isotopically-enriched Mediterranean precipitation source, occurred from ~30 to ~15.5 ka BP and during the last ~5 ka, whereas enhanced precipitation with a predominant isotopically-depleted Atlantic precipitation source prevailed from ~15.5 to ~5 ka BP. This latter stage is here defined as the Western Mediterranean Humid Period (WMHP). In addition, some occasional millennial-scale opposite precipitation patterns can be observed during these climatically distinct periods. These changes in the source of precipitation were likely coupled to a shift in the main rainy season from winter, when Atlantic precipitation prevailed, to late winter-early spring, when the contribution of Mediterranean moisture is higher. Comparison between the studied mid-latitude terrestrial Padul-15-05 core and a low-latitude marine record offshore of northwestern Africa shows clear long-term synchronous responses of both western Mediterranean precipitation and western African monsoon systems to northern Hemisphere atmospheric dynamics, ultimately controlled by orbital forcing and ice-sheets fluctuations.

Interannual oxygen isotope variability in Indian summer monsoon precipitation reflects changes in moisture sources

The primary influences on the spatio-temporal variability of oxygen isotope compositions in precipitation over the Indian summer monsoon domain are inadequately constrained by the limited observational record. Consequently, the climatic significance of isotopic signatures of precipitation preserved in proxy archives from the region remains unclear. Here we present simulations with an isotope-enabled climate model (IsoGSM2) with the moisture-tagging capability to investigate the role of relative contributions of moisture from oceanic and terrestrial sources to the interannual variability in oxygen isotope composition in summer monsoon rainfall. During weak monsoon years, the moisture contribution from the Arabian Sea dominates precipitation over the Indian subcontinent while the remote oceanic and terrestrial sources have a greater influence during strong monsoon years. We suggest that changes in monsoon circulation, moisture source, and precipitation intensity are interrelated and that speleothem oxygen isotope records from the region can potentially help reconstruct interannual to decadal monsoon rainfall variability.

A tale of shifting relations: East Asian summer and winter monsoon variability during the Holocene

Understanding the dynamics between the East Asian summer (EASM) and winter monsoon (EAWM) is needed to predict their variability under future global warming scenarios. Here, we investigate the relationship between EASM and EAWM as well as the mechanisms driving their variability during the last 10,000 years by stacking marine and terrestrial (non-speleothem) proxy records from the East Asian realm. This provides a regional and proxy independent signal for both monsoonal systems. The respective signal was subsequently analysed using a linear regression model. We find that the phase relationship between EASM and EAWM is not time-constant and significantly depends on orbital configuration changes. In addition, changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation, Arctic sea-ice coverage, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Sun Spot numbers contributed to millennial scale changes in the EASM and EAWM during the Holocene. We also argue that the bulk signal of monsoonal activity captured by the stacked non-speleothem proxy records supports the previously argued bias of speleothem climatic archives to moisture source changes and/or seasonality.