Changes In Long-term Interest Rates Research Articles

Measuring Interest Rate Risk Management by Financial Institutions

Financial intermediaries manage myriad interest rate risk exposures. We propose a new method to measure financial intermediaries' residual interest rate risk using high-frequency financial market data. Our method exploits all available high-frequency information and is valid under extremely weak assumptions. Applying the method to U.S. life insurers, we find their interest rate risk management strategies are generally effective. However, life insurers are more sensitive to changes in long-term interest rates than property and casualty insurers. We show that the term premium helps to explain the difference in sensitivities between the two types of insurer.

Spillover Effects in the Presence of Structural Breaks, Persistence and Conditioned Heteroscedasticity

The intention of this article is to develop an instrument to overcome the limitations caused by traditional analyses and present a combined STR — Smooth Transition Regression model (EGARCH, STRIGARCH, and STR-FIEGARCH) to analyze the contagion effects of the 2008 financial crisis. The proposed instrument will aid the analysis of contagion and the impact of changes in long-term interest rates on the returns of international stock indices and forecasting, with special emphasis on the effects caused by structural breaks, persistence, and conditioned heteroscedasticity. The methodology begins with unit root tests with one and two structural breaks. In the second step, the asymmetry will be analyzed considering the STR models, which will determine the asymmetry relationship between interest rates and the long term, so that in a later step, these asymmetries will be used in the composition of a volatility estimation model, being based on the ARCH models: (i) EGARCH and (ii) FIEGARCH. This study provides a useful instrument based on modeling techniques to make the decision-making process more efficient and objective, providing a choice of instruments that assess the effect of changes in interest rates on stock market indices when influenced by falls, with structural data and better forecasting performance. The results show that the developed mixture models obtained better performance in predicting the effect or impact of changes in interest rates on stock market indices when influenced by structural breaks. STR and the ARCH family are useful instruments that make the decision-making process clearer and more objective when choosing instruments that assess the spillover effect of long-term interest rates on the profitability of international financial indices.

The effect of financial, macroeconomic and sentimental factors on stock market volatility

The aim of this paper is to find economic factors that could be helpful in explaining the market’s shifts between periods of prosperity and crisis. The study took into account the main stock indices from developed markets of the USA, Germany and Great Britain, and from two emerging markets, i.e. Poland and Turkey. The analysis confirms the existence of two different states of volatility in these markets, namely the state with a positive returns’ mean and low volatility, and the state with a negative or insignificant mean and high volatility. The Markov-switching model with a dynamic probability matrix was applied in the study. The subject of the analysis was the impact of domestic and global factors, such as VIX and TED spread, oil prices, sentiment indices (ZEW), and macroeconomic indices (unemployment, longterm interest rate, CPI), on the probability of switching between the states. The authors concluded that in all the examined countries, changes in long-term interest rates have an influence on market returns. However, the direction of this impact is different for developed and emerging markets. As regards developed markets, high prices of oil, 10-year bonds, and the ZEW index can suggest a high probability of the countries remaining in the first state, whereas an increase in the VIX index and the TED spread significantly reduces the probability of staying in this state. The other studied factors proved to be rather local in nature.

Modelling Stock Returns and Risk Management in the Shipping Industry

We estimate the impact of macroeconomic risk factors on shipping stock returns, using a quantile regression (QR) model. We regress the excess return of a portfolio for the container, dry bulk, chemical/gas, oil tanker, and diversified shipping sectors on the world market portfolio excess return, volatility index, and changes in the oil price, exchange rate, and interest rate. The sensitivities of stock returns to the risk factors differ across quantiles and shipping segments and are found to be significant for the volatility index, world market portfolio return, exchange rate, and changes in long-term interest rate with variation over quantiles. This provides evidence of asymmetric and heterogeneous dependence between stock returns and certain macroeconomic risk variables. The results of the study also suggest that standard OLS regression is inadequate to uncover the risk-return relation.

Varying interest rate sensitivity of different property sectors: cross-country evidence from REITs

PurposeRecognising that different property sectors have distinct risk-return characteristics, this paper assesses whether changes in the level and volatility of short- and long-term interest rates differentially affected excess returns of sector-specific Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in the Pacific Rim region between July 2006 and December 2018. The strategic property risk management implications for sector-specific REITs are also identified.Design/methodology/approachDaily excess returns between July 2006 and December 2018 are used to analyse the sensitivity in the level and volatility of interest rates for REITs among office, retail, industrial, residential and specialty REITs across the USA, Japan, Australia and Singapore. The generalised autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic in the mean (GARCH-M) methodology is employed to assess the linkage between interest rates and excess returns of sector-specific REITs.FindingsCompared with diversified REITs, sector-specific REITs were less sensitive to short- and long-term interest rate changes across the USA, Japan, Australia and Singapore between July 2006 and December 2018. Of sector-specific REITs, retail and residential REITs were susceptible to interest rate movements over the full study period. On the other hand, office and specialty REITs were generally less sensitive to changes in the level and volatility of short- and long-term interest rate series across all markets in the Pacific Rim region. However, the interest rate sensitivity of industrial REITs was somewhat mixed. This sector was sensitive to interest rate movements, but no comparable evidence was found since the onset of GFC.Practical implicationsThe insignificant exposure to interest rate risk of sector-specific REITs may imply that they have a stronger interest rate risk aversion and greater hedging benefits than their diversified counterparts, particularly for office and specialty REITs. The results support the existence of REIT specialisation value in the Pacific Rim region from the interest rate risk management perspective. This is particularly valuable to international property investors constructing and managing portfolios with REITs in the region. Property investors are advised to be aware of the disparities in the magnitude and direction of sensitivity to the interest rate level and volatility of REITs across different property sectors and various markets in the Pacific Rim region. This study is expected to enhance property investors' understanding of interest rate risk management for different property types of REITs in local, regional and international investment portfolios.Originality/valueThe study is the first to assess the interest rate sensitivity of REITs across different property sectors and various markets in the Pacific Rim region. More importantly, this is the first paper to offer empirical evidence on the existence of specialisation value in the Pacific Rim REIT markets from the aspect of interest rate sensitivity. This research may enhance property investors' understanding of the varying interest rate sensitivity of different property types of REITs across the USA, Japan, Australia and Singapore.

Corporate Profits and Investment in Light of Institutional and Stock Market Turmoil: New Evidence from the Warsaw Stock Exchange

: Using a new quarterly panel of corporate, institutional, and macroeconomic data, we investigate the impact of economic property rights, stock market returns and stock market realized volatility as well as macroeconomic controls on corporate profitability and investment capacities for a sample of 238 firms quoted on the Warsaw Stock Exchange between 2007–2015. The obtained results indicated that both economic property rights and equity market realized volatility impacted firm profits and investment capacities in a negative fashion. Furthermore, we identified detrimental effects of domestic economic growth and global crisis, both of which dwarfed the beneficial effects of firm size and stock returns in the period under consideration. Given Polish public companies limited international engagement, they were isolated from long-term interest rate changes in the euro area. On the other hand, the domestic banking sector and foreign direct investment flows appear to have mitigated Polish firms’ business performance and growth.

Indian Stock Market and Macroeconomic Variables: An Empirical Investigation Based on BSE SENSEX

This paper primarily studies the predictive ability of macroeconomic variables and financial ratios for Indian stock returns based on BSE SENSEX at the level of monthly data covering the period April 1996 to December 2018 using both in-sample and out-of-sample tests of predictive ability. Following this procedure, out of a total of 13 variables, this study found the following six macro variables viz., inflation rate, change in the nominal exchange rate, NASDAQ composite return, foreign direct investment and changes in long-term interest rate and the government fiscal deficit some of which has significant predictive ability for returns. Empirically results show both the inflation rate and change in the nominal exchange rate and the contemporaneous values of NASDAQ composite return and price-earnings ratio to have significant effects for returns on BSE SENSEX. Cointegration tests have also been carried out and found long-run statistical equilibrium among BSE SENSEX and the macro variables at level values.

Assessment of asymmetric effects on exchange market pressure: Empirical evidence from emerging countries

In this study, structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models are used to analyze the asymmetric effects of external and internal economic factors on the exchange market pressure index (EMPI) in the Czech Republic, Iceland, Poland, and Russia. Along with the forecast error variance decompositions (FEVDs) of the SVAR models and slope-based asymmetry tests suggesting that there may be asymmetric effects on EMPI, impulse response functions (IRFs) of SVAR models for the Czech Republic and Poland indicated that improvements in the current account balance will reduce the exchange market pressure (EMP), whereas deterioration of the current account balance may create a more serious speculative attack potential in Iceland and Poland, due to the high ratio of debt to GDP. Changes in inflation may have significant asymmetric effects on the EMP; more precisely, it was found that high inflation and the interest rate environment will increase the pressure on the exchange rate in all four economies. My findings indicate that decreases in inflation rates did not reduce the EMPI in Iceland and Russia, whereas the decline in interest rates did not constitute the necessary environment for capital inflows in any of the four countries. It is also implied that, due to the changes in long-term interest rates, the formation of the expectation of depreciation of the home currency is easier than the formation of the expectation of appreciation. Furthermore, I reveal that credit conditions in the United States of America (USA) could affect global crisis expectations and thus have asymmetrical effects.

What determines the gold inflation relation in the long-run?

PurposeThe author aims to examine the long-run dynamic relation between gold price and inflation in the Indian context from 1982 to 2015. The author measures inflation using consumer price index and wholesale price index (WPI). However, this study focuses on the long-run dynamic relation between gold price–WPI inflation.Design/methodology/approachThe author uses Johansen’s cointegration technique (Johansen, 1991); single equation error correction model based on Pesaran et al. (2001) and Kanioura and Turner (2005); and the Saikkonen and Lütkepohl (2000) approach. The author also uses a time-varying regression framework in level form based on Kalman filter to examine the dynamic nature of gold–WPI relation.FindingsThe author finds no evidence of cointegration between gold and WPI. However, The author reports a significant dynamic relation between gold and inflation using a Kalman filter framework, and the comovement between these variables has in fact increased in the past decade. The results further indicate that variation in gold’s sensitivity to inflation can be explained by real effective exchange rate which supports the notion of using gold as an alternative to paper currency. Moreover, the WPI beta of gold is found to be predicted by both short- and long-term interest rate changes highlighting the monetary value of gold as a valuable asset.Practical implicationsFrom an emerging economy point of view, the results have implications for policy makers, particularly the central banks. The results of this paper caution the Reserve Bank of India against increasing its gold holdings as a reserve asset presuming that gold would preserve its purchasing power parity, at the same time providing a hedge against inflation.Originality/valueTo the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study to examine the gold price–inflation relation in the Indian market for such a long period of time. More importantly, the study shows that the changes in gold’s long-term sensitivity to WPI can be forecast using fundamental variables like interest rates.

US REITs' Returns Sensitivity to Interest Rates after the Global Financial Crisis

Purpose: This paper investigates whether US REITs’ returns have been sensitive to the monetary policy introduced after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. Design/methodology/approach: For the period from 1995 to 2015, we tested the correlation between US REITs’ returns and interest rates, since the central banks commonly use interest rates as a tool to implement their policy. Then, using three sub-periods, we observed how the sensitivity of US REITs to interest rates changed according to the different economic environments. Using two risk factors — the stock market and the changes in long-term interest rates — we created a multifactor model based around the classical CAPM (Sharpe, 1964) and an elaboration of intertemporal CAPM (Merton, 1973). Findings: We found that the stock market was statistically significant for all subperiods considered, and changes in long-term interest rates were statistically significant only for the subperiod 2009–2015. We also found that an increase in 10-year US Treasuries’ yields corresponded to a decrease in US REITs’ market returns. Practical implications: Our findings confirm the sensitivity of US REITs’ performance under post-crisis monetary policy and suggest that the monetary policy has been successful in sensitizing the real estate market and improving its performance after lowering interest rates. Originality/value: The paper provides a further evidence of the sensitivity of indirect real estate investment to interest rates variation during a period of economic turmoil.

Risk assessment and stock market volatility in the Eurozone: 1986-2014

This paper studies the stock market return's volatility in the Eurozone as an input for evaluating the market risk. Stock market returns are endogenously determined by long-term interest rate changes and so is the return's conditional variance. The conditional variance is the time-dependent variance of the underlying variable. In other words, it is the variance of the returns measured at each moment t, so it changes through time depending on the specific market structure at each time observation. Thus, a multivariate EGARCH model is proposed to capture the complex nature of this network. By network, in this context, we mean the chain of stock exchanges that co-move and interact in such a way that a shock in one of them propagates up to the other ones (contagion). Previous studies provide evidence that the Eurozone stock exchanges are deeply integrated. The results indicate that asymmetry and leverage effects exist along with fat tails and endogeneity. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting tests provide clear evidence that the multivariate EGARCH model performs better than the univariate counterpart to predict the behavior of returns both before and after the 2008 crisis.

Long-Run UIP Holds Even in the Short Run

The failure of uncovered interest rate parity to explain short-term interest rate movements is well documented. We show that short-term changes in long-term interest rates do help to explain short-term exchange rate movements. The relationship gets stronger over our sample period, as the liquidity of the exchange rate market increases. We also show that controlling for time-varying exchange rate risk also helps to improve the fit of the relationship.

The impact of public debt on the long-term interest rates in the euro area member countries during 2003-2010

The main aim of the article is to analyze the relationship between public debt and the real, long-term interest rates in the euro area member countries during 2003-2010. The first part dealt with theoretical analysis and the most important results of empirical studies concerning the relationship between public debt and the real, long-term interest rates. In the next part of article, there were examined the relationships between public debt and the real, long-term interest rates in the euro area countries by using the Vector Autoregression Model (VAR). There were estimated elasticity coefficients of the real, long-term interest rates to public debt and measured the impact strength of public debt to changes in the real, long-term interest rate in the euro area member countries using the impulse response function. This was followed by decomposition of the real, long-term interest rate to estimate the impact of public debt and the real, long-term interest rate changes on the volatility of the real, long-term interest rate in the euro area member countries.

The Term Structure of Interest Rates across Frequencies

This paper tests the expectations hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of interest rates in US data, using spectral regression techniques that allow us to consider different frequency bands. We find a positive relation between the term spread and the change in the long-term interest rate in a frequency band of 6 months to 4 years, whereas the relation is negative at higher and lower frequencies. We confirm that the variance of term premia relative to expected changes in long-term interest rates dominates at high and low frequencies, leading the EH to be rejected in those bands but not in the intermediate frequency band. JEL Classification: C22, E43

Interest rate and bank stock returns asymmetry: Evidence from U.S. banks

We use the multivariate extension of Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic (EGARCH) of Nelson, Econometrica, 59: 347–370, 1991 to test for spillover effects and examine the extent of asymmetries between short- and long-term interest rates and portfolios of money center, large, and medium-size banks in the U.S. Our results indicate the existence of price and volatility spillovers from short- and long-term interest rates to the three bank portfolios. We also provide evidence of response asymmetries for the portfolios of money center and large banks, suggesting that money center and large banks are more sensitive to negative than positive short- and long-term interest rate changes.

The Determinants of Household Credit in Spain

This paper estimates a single-equation model to analyse the main explanatory factors behind changes in Spanish household credit, considering that the behaviour of its determinants is exogenous. According to the evidence reported, household borrowing is determined in the long run by real spending, gross wealth and the repayment term for outstanding credits, which have a positive influence, and by the cost of loans and the unemployment rate, the effect of which is of a negative sign. Developments in the short run are influenced by changes in long-term interest rates and in employment. The evidence offered suggests that, in general terms, the financing received by households over the period analysed is in line with what may be inferred from its determinants; however, the high volume of debt incurred entails greater exposure of the sector to unexpected changes in its income, in its wealth or in the cost of borrowing, especially in a setting in which floating-rate loans are increasingly significant.

Yield Curve Conundrum

Shape of Yield Curve and Industry Group Performance It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will end the current tightening cycle early in 2006. Federal Reserve actions have a direct influence on short-term interest rates, which in turn may impact long-term rates. Long-term interest rates are influenced by (1) investors' expectation of future interest rates, (2) the risk premium demanded to hold long-term bonds, and (3) supply and demand for long-term Treasuries. We attempt to understand the impact of changes in the yield curve on the S&P 500 industry groups' performance. Monetary Policy and Equity Performance We analyzed the impact of changes in monetary policy on the equity markets. We observed industry group performance during periods of tightening and easing monetary policy from 1961 through 2005. We also looked at the changes in long-term interest rates versus the first 100-basis-point move in the Fed Funds target rate during easing and tightening periods.

Reading the Minds of Investors: An Empirical Term Structure Model for Policy Analysis

Building on the recent macro finance literature, this paper develops an empirical term structure model in which investors' judgmental forecasts of macro variables play an important role. The model allows for a limited form of time-variation in the dynamics describing the behavior of short-term interest rates and macro variables. As a result, changes in economic forecasts over time reflect the influence of both economic shocks and perceived changes in economic structure. The latter, in particular, are shown to be important in explaining the evolution of the yield curve over time. An interest rate accounting framework based on the model is applied in parsing changes in long-term interest rates into portions associated with changes in term premiums and changes in expected future short-rates. The changes in expected future short rates are then further decomposed into portions attributable to changes in the expected future paths for inflation, the unemployment rate, and GDP growth and also to a fourth factor interpreted as changes in the of monetary policy. The model results indicate that changes in long-term interest rates, on average, have been about equal parts changes in term premia and changes in expected future short rates. Changes in expected future short rates seem to be driven largely by changes in the stance of monetary policy and in the outlook for inflation while the estimated influence of changes in the outlook for the unemployment rate and GDP growth is more muted.

Reading the Minds of Investors: An Empirical Term Structure Model for Policy Analysis

Building on the recent macro finance literature, this paper develops an empirical term structure model in which investors' judgmental forecasts of macro variables play an important role. The model allows for a limited form of time-variation in the dynamics describing the behavior of short-term interest rates and macro variables. As a result, changes in economic forecasts over time reflect the influence of both economic shocks and perceived changes in economic structure. The latter, in particular, are shown to be important in explaining the evolution of the yield curve over time. An interest rate accounting framework based on the model is applied in parsing changes in long-term interest rates into portions associated with changes in term premiums and changes in expected future short-rates. The changes in expected future short rates are then further decomposed into portions attributable to changes in the expected future paths for inflation, the unemployment rate, and GDP growth and also to a fourth factor interpreted as changes in the "stance of monetary policy." The model results indicate that changes in long-term interest rates, on average, have been about equal parts changes in term premia and changes in expected future short rates. Changes in expected future short rates seem to be driven largely by changes in the stance of monetary policy and in the outlook for inflation while the estimated influence of changes in the outlook for the unemployment rate and GDP growth is more muted.

Empirical evidence of a positive inflation premium being incorporated into stock prices

This study demonstrates that in contrast to prior research findings on short-term stock returns, long-term stock returns are positively correlated with inflation. In addition, within the context of a more complete explanatory model, long-term stock returns are found to be negatively related to changes in long-term interest rates and negatively related to beginning price to earnings ratios. The significance of these variables in explaining almost all the time series variation in long-term stock returns demonstrates that changes in stock values are well explained by theory.