Changes In Local Weather Conditions Research Articles

The Effect of Local Weather Conditions on American Kestrel (Falco sparverius) Reproduction

ABSTRACT American Kestrel (Falco sparverius) populations have been declining in North America during recent decades and potential causes, including climate change, currently are under investigation. Many studies of migratory birds have demonstrated the effects of climate change, including changes in local weather conditions and the increase in extreme weather, but the relationship between local weather and kestrel ecology in the northeastern United States has received little attention. We examined the relationship of local weather conditions and kestrel breeding performance in northwestern New Jersey between 1996 and 2016. We also obtained temperature, rainfall, and snowfall data from weather stations within or adjacent to our study area. We did not detect significant changes in climate over the study period, but we did find significant associations between local weather conditions and kestrel breeding performance. Warmer temperatures during the breeding season were significantly correlated with earlier nesting, and early nesting had significant positive correlations with clutch size, hatching rate, nestling survival, and nesting success (raising at least one young to fledging). We did not detect a significant relationship between rainfall and nesting variables, but snowfall during autumn was strongly related to kestrel breeding performance the following year. Compared to years when there was no snowfall in our study area the preceding autumn, kestrels breeding in years following autumn snow had significantly smaller clutches, lower hatching rates, lower nestling survival rate, and lower nesting success. Kestrels in our region are partial migrants; first-year birds generally migrate to southern wintering grounds while older birds may remain in the region, presumably in response to local conditions. We suggest that substantial snow during autumn may drive a larger percentage of adults to migrate south, as indicated by the greater number of kestrels counted at representative autumn hawk watch sites during years with substantial autumn snow. Our study concludes that variations in local weather conditions throughout the year can affect the breeding performance of American Kestrels, whether or not they are associated with climate change.

Comparative Analysis of Maximum Power Point Tracking Algorithms for Standalone PV System Under Variable Weather Conditions

Renewable energy systems are becoming increasingly predominant in the current scenario, and Photovoltaic (PV) arrays are one of the most widely used renewable energy generation sources. The current-voltage characteristics of PV arrays are non-linear, necessitating the need for supervisory techniques in order to ensure that the array functions at maximum efficiency, which is performed by Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) techniques. These techniques are categorized into classical, intelligent and optimization algorithms. This paper performs a comparative analysis between five different MPPT techniques belonging to these categories – Perturb and Observe (P&O), Incremental Conductance (IC), Fuzzy Logic Control (FLC), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Cuckoo Search Algorithm (CSA). A standalone PV system interfaced with a Boost converter is simulated on MATLAB Simulink for the performance evaluation of the MPPT techniques. Solar energy is extremely susceptible to changes in local weather conditions, mainly variations in solar insolation levels. The designed system is tested against a varying insolation profile in order to examine the robustness of the MPPT techniques, with their operation efficiencies showcased.

How Would We Cycle Today If We Had the Weather of Tomorrow? An Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Bicycle Traffic

Bicycle usage is significantly affected by weather conditions. Climate change is, therefore, expected to have an impact on the volume of bicycle traffic, which is an important factor in the planning and design of bicycle infrastructures. To predict bicycle traffic in a changed climate in the city of Berlin, this paper compares a traditional statistical approach to three machine learning models. For this purpose, a cross-validation procedure is developed that evaluates model performance on the basis of prediction accuracy. XGBoost showed the best performance and is used for the prediction of bicycle counts. Our results indicate that we can expect an overall annual increase in bicycle traffic of 1–4% in the city of Berlin due to the changes in local weather conditions caused by global climate change. The biggest changes are expected to occur in the winter season with increases of 11–14% due to rising temperatures and only slight increases in precipitation.

Local weather conditions have complex effects on the growth of blue tit nestlings

Adverse weather conditions are expected to result in impaired nestling development in birds, but empirical studies have provided equivocal support for such a relationship. This may be because the negative effects of adverse weather conditions are masked by parental effects. Globally, ambient temperatures, rainfall levels and wind speeds are all expected to increase in a changing climate and so there is a need for a better understanding of the relationship between weather conditions and nestling growth. Here, we describe a correlative study that examined the relationships between local temperatures, rainfall levels and wind speeds and the growth of individual blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) nestlings in relation to their hatching order and sex. We found that changes in a range of morphological characters were negatively related to both temperature and wind speed, but positively related to rainfall. These patterns were further influenced by the hatching order of the nestlings but not by nestling sex. This suggests that the predicted changes in local weather conditions may have complex effects on nestling growth, but that parents may be able to mitigate the adverse effects via adaptive parental effects. We therefore conclude that local weather conditions have complex effects on avian growth and the implications for patterns of avian growth in a changing climate are discussed.

Climate Change and its Impact on Agricultural Productivity in India

Climate change has a serious impact on the availability of various resources on the earth especially water, which sustains life on this planet. Changes in the biosphere, biodiversity and natural resources are adversely affecting human health and quality of life. Throughout the 21stcentury, India is projected to experience warming above global level. India will also begin to experience more seasonal variation in temperature with more warming in the winters than summers. Longevity of heat waves across India has extended in recent years with warmer night temperatures and hotter days, and this trend is expected to continue. The average temperature change is predicted to be 2.33°C-4.78°C with a doubling in CO2 concentrations. These heat waves will lead to increased variability in summer monsoon precipitation, which will result in drastic effects on the agriculture sector in India. Climate models predict a gradual rise in carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and temperature across the globe. These models, however, are not very precise in predicting future changes in local weather conditions. Local weather conditions such as rain, temperature, sunshine and wind, in combination with locally adapted plant varieties, cropping systems, and soil conditions can maximize food production as long as plant diseases can be controlled.

Phenotypic plasticity in butterfly morphology in response to weather conditions during development

In seasonal environments, phenotypic plasticity in response to gradual changes in environmental variables may result in the production of discrete seasonal morphs. Production of the appropriate seasonal morph at the correct time relies on individuals interpreting environmental cues during their development. The speckled wood butterfly Pararge aegeria (L.) has previously been shown to have developmental and phenotypic plasticity across seasons and space (habitats). Here, we examine the developmental sensitivity of different seasonal cohorts of female P. aegeria to changes in local weather conditions over time (1989–1999) and determine how such temporal climatic variation affects adult phenotype development. We observed trait- and cohort-specific changes of adult phenotype development in response to local temporal changes in temperature and rainfall levels. We discuss our findings using current life-history theory and consider the potential for changes in local weather conditions to influence population variability in butterfly morphology and performance.

Temperature, rainfall and butterfly morphology: does life history theory match the observed pattern?

Butterfly distribution and abundance is known to be influenced by temperature and rainfall. What is not clear, however, is how life history and flight morphological traits are affected by changes in local weather conditions. During the period 1989–1999, we explored the effects of ambient temperature and rainfall during larval development on adult phenotypic traits (body mass, forewing loading, forewing surface area and forewing length) in a Swedish population of the speckled wood butterfly Pararge aegeria. As different seasonal cohorts correspond to different developmental pathways (larval hibernating, pupal hibernating and directly developing), we analysed these morphological time series relative to developmental pathway. Phenotypic variation in response to the temperature and rainfall levels experienced during larval development differed in both magnitude and direction depending on the developmental pathway, and hence seasonal cohort, examined (i.e. there was a pathway-specific response). We suggest that through its developmental flexibility P. aegeria may be able to adjust to variation in weather conditions over time. Other less flexible species, however, may not be so fortunately buffered. To truly estimate the impact of climate change on biodiversity more fine-scale, local studies are required that examine the mechanisms underlying the response of species to climate change.

Patterns of covariation among weather conditions, winter North Atlantic Oscillation index and reproductive traits in Mediterranean kestrels

Changes in local weather conditions may affect reproduction in birds. In this study, we evaluated how changes in both local weather and winter North Atlantic Oscillation (the NAO, an index of non-local climatic conditions) could explain variation in selected reproductive traits (laying date, clutch size, hatching and fledging success) in Mediterranean kestrels Falco tinnunculus over 10 years. Kestrels (1) delayed the laying date in rainier springs; (2) laid smaller clutches after warmer and rainier winters, independently from the laying date; (3) had higher hatching success after warmer and dry winters and in warmer and rainier springs; (4) had higher fledging success in warmer and rainier springs. Thus, changes in the weather and the winter NAO index affected reproductive decisions and reproductive success. Predicting the long-term effects of global warming on the viability of Mediterranean populations of kestrels and other birds of prey is difficult. Whether the reproduction of birds of prey will be positively or negatively affected by global warming will depend on the relative importance of changes in temperature and rainfall.

Seasonal weather effects on the common eider, a subarctic capital breeder, in Iceland over 55 years

Changes in bird populations and their phenology (i.e. timing of nesting and migration) are increasingly linked to global climatic changes, particularly at temperate and Arctic latitudes. These pat- terns arise from local- and regional-scale effects of weather on demography but long-term time-series data necessary to explore these relationships are rarely available. Colonies of the common eider Soma- teria mollissima are often monitored annually for nest-down harvesting. We use long-term data from 2 nesting colonies in northwest Iceland (Bildsey, Brei7afjor7ur: 29 yr and Laekur, Dyrafjor7ur: 55 yr) to examine the effects of weather conditions in each season on breeding numbers, arrival dates and clutch sizes. Numbers of nests in Bildsey increased following warm, wet winters and first nests were produced later following windy and wet winters at Laekur. In spring, windy conditions tended to be followed by earlier female arrivals at Bildsey. Warm, wet springs were positively correlated with larger clutch sizes at Laekur, and clutch sizes at Laekur decreased following especially wet and warm autumns. The over- all population trends vary among sites and are likely to be influenced by both climatic and management conditions. These findings indicate that the effects of global climatic changes will depend on the details of changes in local weather conditions within each season. The strong effects on nesting dates and clutch sizes suggest that accumulation of body reserves, which sustain females during incubation and into brood rearing, is a key mechanism that could determine how altered distribution and frequencies of depressions within each season will affect future numbers of this species.

The impact of climatic variation on the opportunity for sexual selection.

Many studies have demonstrated influences of climatic variation on a variety of ecological processes, however, its impact on the potent evolutionary force of sexual selection has largely been ignored. The intensity of sexual selection is a fundamental parameter in animal populations, which depends upon the degree of polygamy and will probably be influenced by the impact of local climatic variation upon 'environmental potential for polygamy'. Here, we provide evidence of a direct effect of local climatic variation on the intensity of sexual selection, by showing a clear correlation between local weather conditions and inter-annual changes in the degree of polygamy in a long-term study of colonially breeding grey seals (Halichoerus grypus). Our results show that changes in local weather conditions alter the annual proportion of males contributing to the effective population size (Ne) by up to 61%. Consequently, over the 'lifetime' of a cohort, a broader range of individuals will contribute genetically to the next generation if local weather conditions are variable. In the context of predicted future changes in climatic variation, these findings have broad implications for population genetics of socially structured animal systems through the major influence that the degree of polygamy has upon Ne.