Land Price Changes Research Articles

An Analysis of Causality between Population Changes, Money Supply and Land Price Changes

An Analysis of Causality between Population Changes, Money Supply and Land Price Changes

An Analysis of Causality between Population Changes, Money Supply and Land Price Changes

An Analysis of Causality between Population Changes, Money Supply and Land Price Changes

How will the combining of the elevation of rail lines with urban redevelopment reduce the north–south (east–west) disparity in the city? A case study of Kyoto-Osaka-Kobe conurbation, Japan

Railroads are generally the primary public transportation system connecting the region. However, when a railway crosses a city, it divides it into north-south (east-west), creating the front and rear sides of the city. In Japan, grade separation projects elevate the existing railway lines. The primary purpose is to relieve traffic congestion caused by railroad crossings. However, integrating the north–south axis has also been highlighted. In addition, creating a new centrality to station spheres in mature cities will be an essential guideline for the future formation of an urban structure centered on station spheres by transit-oriented development. This study focused on 12 cases in which an elevated railway line in the Kyoto-Osaka-Kobe conurbation of Japan was combined with an urban redevelopment project. We investigated changes in land use and land prices in the surrounding area. The study results confirmed that the disparity between the front and rear sides tended to shrink. In addition, based on the station's characteristics and area to be redeveloped, a policy for more effective integrated redevelopment and elevation projects was identified. The findings of this study will assist in reorganizing cities into a more sustainable urban structure by eliminating urban fragmentation centered on railway stations.

Analysis of Land Value Change in Genuk District

Genuk District is a district in Semarang City which is designated as an industrial area. The development of industrial estates can lead to increased urbanization. According to data from Central Agency on Statistics in 2020, the population in Genuk District has always increased from year to year. The increasing population causes the need for land to also increase. Land prices can also rise considering the need for land and factors from industrial development. On the other hand, Genuk District is prone to tidal flooding. The worst tidal floods in Genuk District occurred in Gebangsari, Genuk and Banjardowo Sub-District in the 2000s. Based on the problem, this research aims to map land prices temporally in 2014, 2019 and 2022 and analyze the distribution pattern of land value changes in Genuk District with the Local Moran’s I method. That method is used for analyze the pattern of land values in 2022 and the pattern of land price changes between 2019 and 2022. The method used in mapping land prices is based on a fair market land price approach and land valuation techniques using a mass valuation cost approach. The average land value zone in 2014 has a value of IDR 711,000 in 2019 has an average value of IDR 986,000 and in 2022 is IDR 1,599,000. According to the results of Local Moran’s I, the pattern land value change in 2019-2022 is different from the results of the land value pattern in 2022 for each category class. This shows that the high land value changes between 2019 to 2022 are not in the same location as the high land value in 2022.

Review of Shanghais Green City Policy A Discussion Based on Land Price Theory

This paper studies the impact of green city policy on land price change in Shanghai. We find that the displacement of industry zone will cause the land supply surplus in short run in moving out area, which will lead to the decrease of land price. In moving-in area, the price in long run and short run is completely opposite with moving out area. Land price theory is reviewed regarding its explanatory power in understanding the relation between change in price of land and external factors. The theory is utilized in reviewing of green city policy in Shanghai and its influence over the change in land price concerning industrial zones. While the green city policy is expected to have a number of positive effects on the city, including improving air quality, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and creating a more livable environment, it is found to have some negative effects, such as increasing the cost of living and reducing the amount of available land.

DETERMINANTS OF CHANGES IN AGRICULTURAL LAND PRICES AT REGIONAL LEVEL IN POLAND

The aim of the research was to identify factors determining changes in land prices and to indicate clusters of Polish voivodeships distinguished according to the adopted variables. Because of the specific features of the agricultural land market in Poland, the performed analyses accounted for the distinction in prices of agricultural land from the Agricultural Property Stock of the State Treasury and from private land trade. In view of the formal and legal regulations implemented in Poland, and the way changes in land prices are recorded, the analysis concerned the time period of 2013-2020, divided into two sub-periods: 2013-2016, and 2017-2020. One of the most significant considerations was the fact that there were two submarkets on the Polish agricultural land market, such as the farmland in private turnover and the farmland from the Agricultural Property Stock of the State Treasury. The highest differentiation of land prices between the voivodeships was due to the average monthly disposal income per capita from a family farm relative to the average monthly income per capita from being self-employed, and the total acreage of farmland sold from the State Treasury Stock.

Optimization house price prediction model using gradient boosted regression trees (GBRT) and xgboost algorithm

In this rapidly advancing technological era, the demand for the real estate industry has also increased, including in the field of house price prediction. House prices fluctuate every year due to several factors such as changes in land prices, location, year of construction, infrastructure developments, and other factors. Numerous studies have been conducted on this issue. However, the challenge lies in building a proven accurate and effective model for predicting house prices with the abundance of features present in the dataset. The objective of this research is to develop a predictive model that can accurately estimate house prices based on relevant features or variables. The researcher utilizes ensemble learning techniques, combining the Gradient Boosted Regression Trees (GBRT) and XGBoost algorithms. The dataset used in this article is titled "Ames Housing dataset" obtained from Kaggle. The predictive model is then evaluated using the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) method. The RMSE result from a previous study that used the combination of Lasso and XGBoost was 0.11260, while the RMSE result from this research is 0.00480. This indicates a decrease in the RMSE value, indicating a lower level of error in the model. It also means that the combination of GBRT and XGBoost algorithms successfully improves the prediction accuracy of the previous research model.

Residential Land Prices Changes and Tourism Development in Watukarung Village Pacitan Regency Within Local Communities Perspective

Tourism objects in Pacitan Regency are increasingly diverse and attract tourists from within and outside the region to visit. The price of residential land is one aspect that has also changed along with these developments. The phenomenon of changes in land prices also occurred in Watukarung Village. This study aims to analyze changes in the price of residential land and its relation to tourism developments that occurred in Watukarung Village based on the perceptions of the local community. The method used is qualitative with data collection techniques in the form of in-depth interviews. The data from the interviews were processed using data reduction techniques so that a unit of information was obtained which could then be analyzed descriptively qualitatively. The accuracy of the data obtained was tested using a data source triangulation technique that compared the results of one informant with another. The result shows that the development of tourism has attracted foreign tourists to come and buy residential land in Watukarung Village. The price of residential land by the beach was originally around IDR 300,000/m2 increase to IDR 1,000,000 to IDR 1,500,000/m2. Based on the perception of the local community, the significant increase in the price of residential land is closely related to the development of tourism that has taken place in Watukarung Village. However, there are also people who have the perception that rising residential land prices and tourism development have no direct relationship.
 Keywords : Land Prices; Settlements; Tourism Development
 
 Copyright (c) 2023 Geosfera Indonesia and Department of Geography Education, University of Jember
 This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share A like 4.0 International License

The impact of air pollution on urban land price and willingness to pay for clean air - Evidence from micro level land transactions in China

We investigate the impact of air pollution on land prices by combining Chinese micro level land transaction data and PM2.5 concentrations grid data, and evaluate the marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for clean air through the hedonic price model. The empirical results show that air quality improvement significantly increases the land unit price, and the MWTP value for clean air is estimated to be USD 32.08–33.13/m2 after controlling for variables related to both parcel characteristics and a series of facilities of general interest. Considering the differences in terms of different land use types and administrative levels of cities, the MWTP for clean air is found to exhibit significant heterogeneity both within and between cities. Specifically, the MWTP value of commercial and residential land is significantly higher than that of industrial land, and the value of ordinary prefecture-level cities is much lower than that of municipalities directly under the central government, cities specifically designated in the state plan and provincial capital cities. In addition, mechanism tests suggest that population mobility is a key channel through which changes in land prices reflect the value of clean air. This study provides a new idea for future use of hedonic price model to estimate willingness to pay for public goods such as clean air from the perspective of China's land transaction market, and also provides a reference for policy makers to formulate relevant policies.

Development of railway station plazas: Impact on land prices of surrounding areas

Improvement in the built environment is an essential component of transit-oriented development; however, the economic effects of such investments have not yet been fully understood because their investigation requires a suitable empirical case. Using the decentralized development of station plazas, this study identified the conditions under which plaza development raises the economic value of the surrounding areas. We empirically analyzed the impact of station plaza development on the land prices of 3870 properties in the surrounding areas at 181 of the 1556 stations in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area from 2000 to 2010, where station plazas were developed for the revitalization of station areas in a mature urban economy. Mahalanobis distance matching was applied to obtain the treatment effect, and the heterogeneity in the effects on the land price of properties by land-use pattern and geographical location was analyzed. The results showed that the properties benefited from station plaza development depending on the accessibility to and from the nearest station and the Tokyo Station (the central station) and their land-use patterns. The study found that there could be a redistributive effect in that the plaza development had positive effects on land price changes around the stations and negative effects in places far from the stations.

Is Macroprudential Policy Instrument Blunt? Empirical Analysis Based on Japan's Experience from the 1970s to the 1990s

AbstractMacroprudential instruments, especially sectoral instruments, are considered to be precise tools that work only in areas of concern. However, it has not yet been fully tested in practice whether they affect only the targeted sectors and do not have undesirable spillover effects on nontargeted sectors. To fill this gap, we empirically study the impact of an instrument called Quantitative Restriction (QR), a policy tool used in Japan in the 1990s to curb excessive land price rises by requiring banks to contain real estate lending. We use narrative records to construct QR shocks and estimate their impact using a factor‐augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR). Our findings are summarized as follows. First, contractionary QR shocks reduced not only real estate lending and land prices, but also lending to other industries, putting downward pressure on the macroeconomy and lowering bank solvency. Second, industry groups and banks with balance sheets that were more exposed to changes in land prices and real estate transactions responded greater to these shocks, illustrating the role of balance sheet composition in spillovers and the importance of choosing the right timing for implementation following these shocks, suggesting that there may have been leakages through these institutions. Third, some nonbank financial institutions that were not required to report the loan results to the authorities did not reduce their lending following these shocks, which accords with the view that there were leakages through these institutions.

Analysis of Land Price Changes Before and After Designation as Tsunami Disaster Alert Areas

Learning from the Great East Japan Earthquake, the Japanese government enacted the “Tsunami Disaster Prevention Community Development Law.” Following the law’s enactment, local prefectures could designate areas that required special preparation for tsunami disasters as “tsunami disaster alert areas.” However, more than 10 years after the law’s enactment, only about half of the prefectures with estimated tsunami inundation have designated disaster alert areas. One reason for this lack of progress is that it is difficult to reach a consensus owing to concerns regarding falling land prices caused by rumors. Thus, this study presents an empirical analysis of the impact of designating tsunami disaster alert areas on land prices. The difference in land prices between designated tsunami disaster alert areas and other areas is analyzed using the difference-in-difference and propensity score matching methods, using data on 26 prefectures. The eight prefectures in the “treatment group” were designated as tsunami disaster alert areas before 2018. The other prefectures are assigned to the “control group.” The results show a significant difference between designated tsunami disaster alert areas and other locations. The results are confirmed in kernel matching bandwidths of 0.06 for the entire sample, sample of only residential use, and sample of an estimated tsunami inundation depth below 2 m. Thus, this study concludes that before designating tsunami alert areas, local prefectures must carefully consider the impact of such designation on land prices.

Effects of planning regulations on housing and land markets: A system dynamics modeling approach

The effect of planning regulations on housing and land markets has been a long-lasting concern. The inherent complexities of incorporating regulations into models, including the heterogeneity of regulations and their temporal effect, have resulted in different approaches, and consensus has been elusive. Few studies have addressed the effect of regulations in a dynamic framework of the housing and land markets. In these studies, different regulations or the indices capturing their restrictiveness are assumed to have a linear additive effect along with the other factors. The results have been contradictory. This paper aims to model the dynamic effect of regulations by incorporating them in a causal rather than correlational form of relationships. To this end, we adopted the system dynamics approach to model the individual effect of three important types of regulation widely used in urban planning systems: maximum building density, minimum lot size, and urban growth boundary. We use the concept of optimum building density to integrate the housing market and the land market through the construction sector, providing clearer causal links among the related markets. To our knowledge this is the first use of this concept in a dynamic model. We ran the simulations (using hypothetical parameters) to analyze the effect of each regulation on housing and land price changes. The simulation results show that by imposing more restrictive UGBs, housing and land prices increase. A more restrictive MBD first results in a decrease in the land price and, then, due to its effect on the whole housing market, increases both housing and land prices. A more restrictive MLS has a short-term impact on land and housing prices, but it does not change long-run price levels. The common feature of the market under more restrictive forms of all three regulations is lower volatility.

고속도로 일반도로화 주변지역 활성화를 위한 지구단위계획의 실효성에 관한 연구

This study examines the effectiveness of the district unit plan established to revitalize the area around the Gyeongin Expressway as a general road. In detail, this study examines the number of building permits/reports within and outside the district unit plan area before and after the decision of the district unit plan in the area, and changes in official land prices were analyzed. It turns out that there was no significant difference in the number of building permits/reports in the target areas before and after the district unit planning. Despite the fact that the floor area ratio increased, many lots within the district unit planning area did not show a differentiated rate of increase compared to the lots that did not receive density relief within the district unit planning area or lots outside the district unit planning area, As urban regeneration becomes increasingly important, it is necessary to introduce the district unit plan for urban regeneration and the more practical and regenerative guideline.

Application of GIS in the Analysis of Urban Economic Migration

As an intuitive embodiment of the city’s comprehensive strength, urban competitiveness, combined with the theory of regional gravity center, makes a comparative analysis of the urban economic migration of urban competitiveness in different years, which helps to analyze the spatial and temporal development differences of regional cities, thus providing a new perspective for the analysis and research of urban competitiveness. In the market economy, land price plays an important role in optimizing the allocation and intensive use of urban land resources. Therefore, it is of great practical significance for the government to reasonably allocate urban land resources and standardize the order of land market to master the spatiotemporal change law of urban land price and study the driving mechanism of land price change. This paper analyzes the urban economic migration with the help of GIS technology and carries out research at the same time, analyzes the spatio-temporal change law of the form, analyzes the urban form measurement, expansion intensity and expansion speed, and explores the driving forces and constraints affecting the urban spatial form. From this, we can obtain the spatio-temporal trajectory of GIS in urban economic migration and evolution, and the analysis and research of this trajectory can understand the direction of regional economic development and the balance of development.

Urbanization effect of mega sporting events using sentinel-2 satellite images: The case of the pyeongchang olympics

This study attempts to understand the impact of mega sporting events on local economies by identifying and comparing the urbanization and economic effects of the 2018 Pyeongchang Winter Olympic Games. However, for an accurate evaluation of the effects of hosting the Winter Olympics, it is necessary to consider not only the ripple effect on the local economy but also the increased potential for urban growth from the expansion of social overhead capital. This study calculates the urbanization index and land cover ratio using Sentinel-2 satellite images to examine the urbanization from infrastructure construction for the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics. It additionally analyzes the changes in land price and tax revenue during this period to understand the economic effects of the Olympics, and verifies the correlation between urbanization and economic indicators. The study is unique in that it analyzes the impact of a national event on local communities using satellite image data and presents a comprehensive methodology to understand urban sustainability by monitoring urban changes.

POLA SPASIAL HARGA TANAH UNTUK PERENCANAAN STRATEGIS DALAM PERSPEKTIF PEMBANGUNAN BERKELANJUTAN (STUDI KASUS: KOTA BANDUNG, JAWA BARAT, INDONESIA)

Sustainable development goals are expected to be achieved by 2030. One of the goals of sustainable development is tobuild cities and settlements that are inclusive, safe, and resilient. Bandung as one of the cities with very rapid development growth during the last 10 years has experienced changes in land prices, which are also very fast. Land prices are proven to have a relationship with development in an area. The more complete public facilities, social facilities, and accesses in an area, the higher the price is. This study has determined the spatial pattern of land prices in Bandung using four spatial cluster analysis methods. It is found that the spatial pattern of land prices in Indonesia is clustered. The results of this spatial pattern can be used as the basis for strategic planning for Bandung, especially to serve areas that can still be developed into new development centers supported by environmental planning and sustainable development.

Identification of the geographical extent of an area benefiting from a transportation project: A generalized synthetic control

In evaluating the benefits of an infrastructure project, it is essential to consider who is benefiting from the project and where benefits are located. However, there is no established way to accurately determine the latter. To fill this methodological gap, this study proposes an approach for the ex-post identification of the geographical extent of an area benefiting from a transportation project based on a generalized synthetic control method. Specifically, it allows comparing multiple treatment units with their counterfactuals in a single run—changes in land prices (actual outcome) at each treated site are compared to the counterfactual outcome, and the individual (i.e., unit-level) treatment effect on the treated site is then estimated. This approach is empirically applied to a large-scale Japanese heavy railway, the Tsukuba Express line project. Our approach enables the detection of 1) the complicated spatial shape of benefit incidence; 2) negative spillovers; and 3) the increase in options (train routes), typically not considered in a benefit evaluation system based on the hedonic approach, but which can be capitalized into land prices.

지하철건설이 부동산시장에 미친 효과 분석 - 신분당선 건설이 양재역 주변의 토지 및 주택가격 변동을 중심으로 -

he data used in this study are the regional analysis results of the monthly land price change rate of the Bundang Line passing area from 1989 to 2014 provided by the Korea Appraisal Association, and the average individual publicly announced land price per ㎡ per year. In addition, the spatial scope of the study was limited to the station area around Gangnam-gu and Yangjae Station in Seoul. The results are summarized as follows. First, in the development of the subway line on the Sinbundang line, the rise in land price was different depending on the separation distance from the subway line. Second, the parallax ripple effect of subway development on land prices occurred chronologically according to the process of the subway development project. When comparing the rate of change in the average standard land price per square meter of Yangjae-dong at the time the subway development plan was announced (2002) and one year passed (2003), the annual increase rate was 20%. In view of this, it is true that the construction of the subway concentrates a large population and raises the land price of the surrounding area considerably. Of course, these population concentration phenomena can be said to be the result of expecting the convenience of a bridge.

Spatial patterns of land prices changing around toll gates (Cipali Toll Road case study)

Toll road construction has been carried out and has had an direct and indirect economic impact, which applies to Cipali Toll Road as well. High economic activities, growth of new facilities, and land use changes around this toll road are signs of new economic activities. New economic activity centers have triggered an increase in land prices in the surrounding area. The objective of this study is to determine the land use price changes along the Cipali Toll Road and understand the factors that influence it, namely the economic activity, distance from the toll road gate, land status, and land use. Data were collected by interviewing key informants from formal agencies and the communities as well. Using overlay technic between land price changes and factors that influence it, the result shows that land price changes did not happen in all areas around the toll road in the same way. Changes in land price also vary. The factor that influences land price changes is the distance from the toll road gate. This result was supported by Pearson Product Moment analysis. The conclusion of this study shows that land price changes in areas that have urban characteristics.