Changes In Incarceration Research Articles

Moved to Vote: The Long-Run Effects of Neighborhoods on Political Participation

Abstract How does one's childhood neighborhood shape political engagement later in life? We study voting rates of children who were displaced by public housing demolitions and moved to higher opportunity areas using housing vouchers. Those displaced during childhood had 11% (2 pp) higher participation in the 2016 Presidential election and were 10% (2.9 pp) more likely to vote in any general election. We argue that the results are unlikely to be driven by changes in incarceration or parental outcomes but rather by political socialization or improvements in education and earnings. These results suggest that housing assistance programs may reduce inequality in political participation.

Mental health and parenting demands among grandparent caregivers of young U.S. children

Substance abuse epidemics and changes in incarceration and foster care policies have recently placed more young children in grandparent custody. Grandmothers bear much of this caregiving responsibility. Our objective was to compare grandparent caregivers of preschool-aged children (grandparent(s) only or in multigenerational households) to parent caregivers, by caregiver sex, in their mental health, available emotional support, and capacity to manage parenting demands. Using U.S. National Survey of Children’s Health data (2016–2019), we used survey-weighted logistic regression models adjusted for socio-demographic confounders and conducted sub-group analyses by caregiver sex. Among 30,046 families with a child aged 1–5 years, 776 (4.1%) were grandparent-only, 817 (3.3%) multigenerational, 28,453 (92.7) parent-headed (weighted percentages). Most caregivers (78.7%) were in Excellent/Very Good mental health, but grandfathers in grandparent-only households were less so. Despite being more likely to parent alone, caregivers in grandparent-only households had about twice the odds of having a source of emotional support (adjusted prevalence odds ratio [aPOR] = 2.07; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12, 3.83). Grandmothers, in particular, had greater odds of handling day-to-day parenting demands (aPOR = 2.40, 95% CI 1.35, 4.27) and of reporting rarely/never feeling angry with the child in their care (aPOR = 2.77, 95% CI 1.53, 5.01), compared to mothers in parent households. Caregivers in multigenerational households displayed no differences as compared to parents except for grandfathers in multigenerational households who were more likely often bothered by the child. Despite increasing demands on grandparents, they generally reported faring as well as or better than parent caregivers, especially grandmothers. Their prior experience and social support may make them resilient.

Diversion in the Criminal Justice System

AbstractThis article provides the first causal estimates on the popular, cost-saving practice of diversion in the criminal justice system, an intervention that provides offenders with a second chance to avoid a criminal record. We exploit two natural experiments in Harris County, Texas where first-time felony defendants faced abrupt changes in the probability of diversion. Using administrative data and regression discontinuity methods, we find robust evidence across both experiments that diversion cuts reoffending rates in half and grows quarterly employment rates by nearly 50% over 10 years. The change in trajectory persists even 20 years out and is concentrated among young black men. An investigation of mechanisms strongly suggests that stigma associated with a felony conviction plays a key role in generating these results. Other possible mechanisms including changes in incarceration, other universal adjustments in policy or practice, and differences in criminal processing are ruled out empirically.

Moved to Vote: The Long-Run Effects of Neighborhoods on Political Participation

How does one's childhood neighborhood shape political engagement later in life? We leverage a natural experiment that moved children out of disadvantaged neighborhoods to study effects on their voting behavior more than a decade later. Using linked administrative data, we find that children who were displaced by public housing demolitions and moved using housing vouchers are 12 percent (3.3 percentage points) more likely to vote in adulthood, relative to their non-displaced peers. We argue that this result is unlikely to be driven by changes in incarceration or in their parents' outcomes, but rather by improvements in education and labor market outcomes, and perhaps by socialization. These results suggest that, in addition to reducing economic inequality, housing assistance programs that improve one's childhood neighborhood may be a useful tool in reducing inequality in political participation.

The Effect of District Attorneys on Local Criminal Justice Outcomes

n the United States, elected district attorneys' offices prosecute over 85% of all felony cases, but we know little about their effect on local criminal justice outcomes. Using a newly-collected dataset of district attorney elections, I show that the a Republican district attorney leads to a 6-8% increase in new prison admissions and new sentenced months per capita in the four years following their election. Effects are disproportionately driven by changes in incarceration for drug offenses. These results show that the identity of local district attorneys is an important determinant of incarceration rates.

INCARCERATION AND POPULATION HEALTH IN WEALTHY DEMOCRACIES*

Everywhere you look, incarceration seems to be doing harm. Research has implicated incarceration not only in worse outcomes for individuals, their families, and their communities but also in growing inequality. Yet incarceration may not always harm society—even if it does harm those who experience it. To consider this possibility, I build an argument demonstrating how the macro‐level consequences of incarceration may be distinctively harmful in the United States, focusing on the incarceration–health relationship as one indicator of a broader phenomenon. I then test my hypothesis by using an unbalanced panel data set including 21 developed democracies (N = 414) and a series of ordinary least‐squares models predicting three measures of population health as a function of incarceration. Models including only a main effect of incarceration demonstrate an inverse association between changes in incarceration and changes in population health. Models including an incarceration by U.S. interaction, however, indicate that the population health consequences of changes in incarceration are far worse in the United States than elsewhere. Taken together, the results indicate that the United States is exceptional for both its rate of incarceration and its effects of incarceration, although it is unclear what drives this exceptionalism in effects.

Race and Incarceration in an Aging Cohort of Vietnam Veterans in Treatment for Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD)

Cross sectional studies have addressed the incarceration of Vietnam veterans with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), but no studies have examined changes in incarceration as they age. This study examines patterns of incarceration among Vietnam veterans treated in specialized veterans affairs (VA) intensive PTSD programs over time. Data was drawn from admission data from the initial episode of treatment of Caucasian and African American Vietnam veterans entering VA specialized intensive PTSD programs between 1993 and 2011 (N = 31,707). Bivariate correlations and logistic regression were used to examine associations among race and incarceration over time and the potentially confounding influence of demographic and clinical covariates on this relationship. Rates of reported incarceration declined from 63 to 43%. Over time, African American veterans were 34% more likely than Caucasian veterans to have a lifetime history of incarceration while interaction analysis showed steeper declines for Caucasians than African Americans. Rates of incarceration among these Vietnam veterans declined as they aged. Furthermore, African American veterans were substantially more likely than Caucasian veterans to have been incarcerated and showed less decline as the cohort aged. While reduced, needs for clinical PTSD services remain among aging combat veterans.

Male Incarceration, the Marriage Market, and Female Outcomes

This paper studies how rising male incarceration has affected women through its effect on the marriage market. Variation in marriage-market shocks arising from incarceration is isolated using two facts: the tendency of people to marry within marriage markets defined by the interaction of race, location, and age and the fact that increases in incarceration have been very different across these three characteristics. Using a variety of estimation strategies, including difference and fixed effects models and TSLS models in which we use policy parameters to instrument for within-marriage market changes in incarceration, we find evidence that is, on the whole, consistent with the implications of the standard marriage-market model. In particular, higher male imprisonment appears to have lowered the likelihood that women marry, modestly reduced the quality of their spouses when they do marry, and shifted the gains from marriage away from women and toward men. The evidence suggests that women in affected markets have increased their schooling and labor supply in response to these changes.