Changes In Habitat Suitability Research Articles

Environmental and Biogeographic Drivers behind Alpine Plant Thermal Tolerance and Genetic Variation.

In alpine ecosystems, elevation broadly functions as a steep thermal gradient, with plant communities exposed to regular fluctuations in hot and cold temperatures. These conditions lead to selective filtering, potentially contributing to species-level variation in thermal tolerance and population-level genetic divergence. Few studies have explored the breadth of alpine plant thermal tolerances across a thermal gradient or the underlying genetic variation thereof. We measured photosystem heat (Tcrit-hot) and cold (Tcrit-cold) thresholds of ten Australian alpine species across elevation gradients and characterised their neutral genetic variation. To reveal the biogeographical drivers of present-day genetic signatures, we also reconstructed temporal changes in habitat suitability across potential distributional ranges. We found intraspecific variation in thermal thresholds, but this was not associated with elevation, nor underpinned by genetic differentiation on a local scale. Instead, regional population differentiation and considerable homozygosity within populations may, in part, be driven by distributional contractions, long-term persistence, and migrations following habitat suitability. Our habitat suitability models suggest that cool-climate-distributed alpine plants may be threatened by a warming climate. Yet, the observed wide thermal tolerances did not reflect this vulnerability. Conservation efforts should seek to understand variations in species-level thermal tolerance across alpine microclimates.

Fire suppression and land-use strategies drive future dynamics of an invasive plant in a fire-prone mountain area under climate change

Woody invasive alien species can have profound impacts on ecosystem processes and functions, including fire regulation, which can significantly affect landscape resilience. Acacia dealbata, a widespread invasive alien plant in the Iberian Peninsula, holds well-known fire-adaptation traits (e.g., massive soil seed banks and heat-stimulated seed germination). In this study, we assess to what extent fire suppression and land-use strategies could affect the potential distribution of A. dealbata in a fire-prone transboundary protected mountain area of Portugal and Spain, using Habitat Suitability Models. Specifically, we predicted changes in habitat suitability for A. dealbata between years 2010 and 2050. We explored the potential impacts of two land-use strategies ('Business-as-usual' or 'High Nature Value farmlands') combined with three levels of fire suppression effectiveness using the biomod2 package in R. We also considered the potential effects of two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Our modeling approach demonstrated a strong capacity to predict habitat suitability using either climate or land-cover information alone (AUC climate = 0.947; AUC LC = 0.957). According to climate-based models, A. dealbata thrives under conditions characterized by higher precipitation seasonality, higher precipitation in the warmest month, and higher minimum temperature in the coldest month. Regarding land cover, A. dealbata thrives mainly in landscapes dominated by urban areas and evergreen forest plantations. Our models forecasted that habitat suitability by 2050 could either increase or decrease depending on the specific combinations of fire suppression, land-use, and climate scenarios. Thus, a combination of business-as-usual and fire-exclusion strategies would enhance habitat suitability for the species. Conversely, management promoting High Nature Value farmlands would decrease the available suitable habitat, particularly under low fire suppression efforts. These findings suggest that promoting sustainable farming activities could impede the spread of A. dealbata by reducing habitat availability, while strategies aiming at fire-exclusion could facilitate its expansion, likely by enabling establishment and large seed production. This study highlights the complex interplay between fire-prone invasive species, fire and land-use strategies, and climate change; and thus the need to consider the interactions between land-use and fire management to promote invasive species control and landscape resilience.

Assessing the efficiency of bird habitat conservation strategies in farmland ecosystems

Land use changes negatively impact agroecosystems, where the loss of wildlife habitats is increasingly threatening global biodiversity. Ecological conservation strategies that seek to reduce habitat destruction are important and strongly rely on understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of land use change. In recent years, an expert-based approach using the Analytic Network Process (ANP) has been applied commonly to wildlife habitat assessment, and the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-s) model is a well-known simulation tool used to predict land use dynamics. Although their effectiveness has been proven widely, existing studies have yet to integrate the two approaches into ecological modeling for conserving bird habitats under the influence of land use changes. Thus, there is a notable research gap regarding the potential synergies of the ANP and CLUE-s models to evaluate the spatial nonstationarity between bird habitats and land use patterns. In this study, we integrated use of the ANP to identify suitable habitats for birds on farmland with the CLUE-s model to predict future changes in habitat suitability by 2035. Our study aims to evaluate the efficiency of various conservation strategies for bird habitat in farmland ecosystems within the Zhuoshui River basin in Taiwan. We formulated conservation strategies to protect areas of farmland based on their relative suitability as bird habitats. The research findings reveal a significant reduction of farmland habitats coinciding with expanding built-up areas and forests, while designating farmland areas for conservation purposes effectively ensures the maintenance of bird habitats amidst these transformations. Conserving highly suitable farmland habitats (those whose suitability values ranked at or above the 75th percentile) presents the most effective strategy to mitigate the impacts of land use change on bird habitats. Under this strategy, changes in farmland habitats lead to a notable decrease of 16.4 % in low and very low suitability, whereas farmland habitats with moderate and high suitability significantly expand by 879.8 % and 225.9 %, respectively. Farmland habitats characterized by high suitability are concentrated in the western region of the Zhuoshui River basin, accounting for 2289 hectares. These findings underscore the magnitude of habitat loss resulting from land use changes outside conserved areas. Our research emphasizes the importance of implementing conservation strategies for bird habitats, providing policymakers with a framework to manage farmland ecosystems effectively.

Improving species distribution forecasts by measuring and communicating uncertainty: An invasive species case study.

Forecasting invasion risk under future climate conditions is critical for the effective management of invasive species, and species distribution models (SDMs) are key tools for doing so. However, SDM-based forecasts are uncertain, especially when correlative statistical models extrapolate to nonanalog environmental domains, such as future climate conditions. Different assumptions about the functional form of the temperature-suitability relationship can impact predicted habitat suitability under novel conditions. Hence, methods to understand the sources of uncertainty are critical when applying SDMs. Here, we use high-resolution predictions of lake water temperatures to project changes in habitat suitability under future climate conditions for an invasive macrophyte (Myriophyllym spicatum). Future suitability was predicted using five global circulation models and three statistical models that assumed different species-temperature functional responses. The suitability of lakes for M. spicatum was overall predicted to increase under future climate conditions, but the magnitude and direction of change in suitability varied greatly among lakes. Variability was most pronounced for lakes under nonanalog temperature conditions, indicating that predictions for these lakes remained highly uncertain. Integrating predictions from SDMs that differ in their species-environment response function, while explicitly quantifying uncertainty across analog and nonanalog domains, can provide a more robust and useful approach to forecasting invasive species distribution under climate change.

Predicting the effect of climate change on the geographic distribution of the endemic Fritillaria aurea in Türkiye

Fritillaria aurea is a rare, high altitude, endemic, and bulbous plant species in Türkiye. Although it is classified as least concern according to IUCN criteria, the species has a narrow distribution. This study utilized ensemble modeling to forecast potential future changes in suitable habitats for F. aurea by two Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs: SSP 1-2.6 and 5-8.5). These pathways were constructed using two General Circulation Models (GCMs) and covered the years 2035, 2055, and 2085. The results showed that the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio8), and precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18) have the largest influence on the potential species distribution. The ensemble model predicted that the highly suitable habitats of F. aurea would contract under all future SSP scenarios and it would lose almost all of its potential highly suitable distribution areas by the end of the century. The remained population of F. aurea could possibly harbour in only minor areas of the North Anatolian Mountains in the north and Taurus Mountains in the south. The results of the study could contribute to establishing conservation strategies and natural resource management policies for F. aurea against the potential impacts of climate change. The highly suitable habitats under pessimistic scenarios at the end of this century projected by the present study can be determined as protected areas for the species.

Habitat suitability and connectivity modelling predict a latitudinal-driven expansion in the Mediterranean basin for a historically introduced reptile

Species introductions outside their native ranges, often driven by trade and other anthropogenic activities, present significant ecological challenges. Reptiles, frequently traded as pets for their attractiveness, are particularly susceptible to such introductions, leading to shifts in distribution patterns and potential ecological impacts. The common chameleon (Chamaeleo chamaeleon), which has been historically introduced in several European countries, is such an example, yet no overall assessments are available to date for this species. In this study, we used ecological niche models to assess habitat suitability for the common chameleon in the Mediterranean basin for current and future scenarios. Concurrently, circuit theory techniques were employed to evaluate habitat connectivity in two historically introduced areas. We identified areas of high habitat suitability and dispersal corridors in introduced regions. Our results reveal a latitudinal gradient in habitat suitability changes, with the species facing both expansion and decline in different parts of its range, depending on the ecozone considered. Severe declines are noted in southeastern Spain, Tunisia, and Israel, while habitat suitability increases westwards in Portugal, Morocco, and Southern Italy. These insights contribute to a better understanding of the common chameleon’s ecological dynamics, providing a foundation for targeted management and conservation efforts. Our study highlights the importance of integrating ecological niche modelling and circuit theory techniques to predict habitat suitability and identify critical dispersal corridors for effective conservation strategies. Considering the ongoing challenges posed by human-mediated dispersals for the common chameleon, our research establishes a foundation for future studies to enhance our understanding of this elusive species.

Future climate-induced distribution shifts in a sexually dimorphic key predator of the Southern Ocean.

The response to climate change in highly dimorphic species can be hindered by differences between sexes in habitat preferences and movement patterns. The Antarctic fur seal, Arctocephalus gazella, is the most abundant pinniped in the Southern Hemisphere, and one of the main consumers of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, in the Southern Ocean. However, the populations breeding in the Atlantic Southern Ocean are decreasing, partly due to global warming. Male and female Antarctic fur seals differ greatly in body size and foraging ecology, and little is known about their sex-specific responses to climate change. We used satellite tracking data and Earth System Models to predict changes in habitat suitability for male and female Antarctic fur seals from the Western Antarctic Peninsula under different climate change scenarios. Under the most extreme scenario (SSP5-8.5; global average temperature +4.4°C projected by 2100), suitable habitat patches will shift southward during the non-breeding season, leading to a minor overall habitat loss. The impact will be more pronounced for females than for males. The reduction of winter foraging grounds might decrease the survival of post-weaned females, reducing recruitment and jeopardizing population viability. During the breeding season, when males fast on land, suitable foraging grounds for females off the South Shetland Islands will remain largely unmodified, and new ones will emerge in the Bellingshausen Sea. As Antarctic fur seals are income breeders, the foraging grounds of females should be reasonably close to the breeding colony. As a result, the new suitable foraging grounds will be useful for females only if nearby beaches currently covered by sea ice emerge by the end of the century. Furthermore, the colonization of these new, ice-free breeding locations might be limited by strong female philopatry. These results should be considered when managing the fisheries of Antarctic krill in the Southern Ocean.

A species distribution model of the giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera: Worldwide changes and a focus on the Southeast Pacific.

Worldwide climate-driven shifts in the distribution of species is of special concern when it involves habitat-forming species. In the coastal environment, large Laminarian algae-kelps-form key coastal ecosystems that support complex and diverse food webs. Among kelps, Macrocystis pyrifera is the most widely distributed habitat-forming species and provides essential ecosystem services. This study aimed to establish the main drivers of future distributional changes on a global scale and use them to predict future habitat suitability. Using species distribution models (SDM), we examined the changes in global distribution of M. pyrifera under different emission scenarios with a focus on the Southeast Pacific shores. To constrain the drivers of our simulations to the most important factors controlling kelp forest distribution across spatial scales, we explored a suite of environmental variables and validated the predictions derived from the SDMs. Minimum sea surface temperature was the single most important variable explaining the global distribution of suitable habitat for M. pyrifera. Under different climate change scenarios, we always observed a decrease of suitable habitat at low latitudes, while an increase was detected in other regions, mostly at high latitudes. Along the Southeast Pacific, we observed an upper range contraction of -17.08° S of latitude for 2090-2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario, implying a loss of habitat suitability throughout the coast of Peru and poleward to -27.83° S in Chile. Along the area of Northern Chile where a complete habitat loss is predicted by our model, natural stands are under heavy exploitation. The loss of habitat suitability will take place worldwide: Significant impacts on marine biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are likely. Furthermore, changes in habitat suitability are a harbinger of massive impacts in the socio-ecological systems of the Southeast Pacific.

Mountain greening and rising temperatures erode habitats of ironwort (Sideritis), an important natural medicinal resource

Societal Impact StatementNative medicinal plants contribute essential health benefits to populations globally, constituting a major natural resource that human societies rely on. Being an integral part of terrestrial biodiversity, medicinal plants are detrimentally affected by ongoing climate and land‐use change, yet comprehensive studies on the risk that extinction will pose to medicinal biodiversity are lacking. Responding to ongoing scientific calls for conserving medicinal biodiversity, this study provides an integrated assessment of the impacts of environmental change on ironwort (Sideritis), a group of closely related endemic plants of great cultural significance as local medicinal resources in the Balkan Mountains.Summary Mountain habitats harbour unique biodiversity and provide vital resources for human well‐being, including natural medicinal resources, yet they are amongst the environments most impacted by global change. While there is ample evidence of recent rapid climate and land‐use change on mountain ecosystems, the impacts of these processes on the habitats of culturally important medicinal plants are still poorly understood. Here, we assess the potential loss of mountain habitats for medicinal plant resources over the past four decades using the culturally important ironwort, a group of endemic medicinal plants of the Balkan Mountains extensively used by local human populations and the pharmaceutical industry for treating cough and cold and gastrointestinal disorders. We used information collected from major European natural history museums to guide extensive field campaigns across 15 separate mountain ranges. We integrate field data with thousands of satellite images, station‐validated climate reanalysis data and habitat suitability modelling. We finally used machine learning to assess the relative roles of climate and vegetation rates of change in driving rates of habitat suitability change. We show that rising temperatures and ‘mountain greening’ erode the habitats of ironwort at alarming rates. About 50% of the total habitat area across all considered mountain ranges shows a significant decline in habitat suitability. These past trends will most likely continue in the future and could lead to widespread local extinction of the species and other medicinal plants that share similar ecological preferences, threatening their future contributions to societal well‐being.

Research on the Changes in Distribution and Habitat Suitability of the Chinese Red Panda Population

The study of the dynamics of species habitat is of great significance for maintaining or adjusting the current habitat protection management strategy. However, the current research on the Chinese red panda’s habitat is limited to the analysis of a single period, which makes it difficult to quantify the changes in its habitat on a temporal scale and greatly hinders the formulation of the overall protection and management strategies that are to be used for the Chinese red panda. This study simulated habitat suitability at different temporal scales to quantify the trend of changes in habitat quality and analyzed the reasons for the changes in habitat suitability in certain regions. The results showed that the overall suitability of the Chinese red panda’s habitat increased and that the area of suitable habitats expanded. Suitable Chinese red panda habitats in the mountains of Qionglai (1662.73 km2), Daxiangling (230.30 km2), Xiaoxiangling (549.47 km2), and Liangshan (50.39 km2) increased by a total of 2452.89 km2. The suitability of habitats in the central part of the Liangshan Mountains has declined significantly, which is positively correlated with changes in temperature seasonality (BIO4, R = 0.18) and negatively correlated with changes in annual average temperature (BIO1, R = −0.03) as well as changes in the proportion of farmland (FARMLAND, R = −0.14). The local extinction of isolated populations of Chinese red pandas in the Minshan Mountains is the main factor leading to their distribution retreat rather than a decrease in habitat quality. The research results help us to provide a scientific basis for the formulation of conservation and management strategies for Chinese red pandas at different scales.

From the mountains to the sea: Rethinking Mediterranean glacial refugia as dynamic entities

AbstractAimGlacial refugia are areas of primary importance for the evolution and conservation of biodiversity. Yet, their geographic location remains loosely defined even in intensively studied areas, preventing a thorough understanding of their role in the spatiotemporal biodiversity dynamics. With this study, we aim to locate the major glacial refugia within the biodiversity hotspot of the Italian peninsula, to understand the processes that warranted the long‐term persistence of biodiversity in the face of climate changes.LocationItalian peninsula.TaxonTerrestrial vertebrates.MethodsWe calibrated species distribution models (SDM) for 22 lineages of terrestrial vertebrates endemic to the Italian peninsula and projected the SDMs to the last‐glacial maximum conditions. Then, we combined single‐lineage projections to investigate the location and spatiotemporal dynamics of multi‐species glacial refugia.ResultsMulti‐species refugia were mostly found in coastal areas that have been flooded by the post‐glacial marine transgressions, and that are currently below the sea level. Indeed, we identified six major areas acting as glacial refugia, mainly located outside the current coastline in the southern part of the peninsula and along the western coast. These areas were close to previously inferred locations of glacial refugia and genetic diversity hotspots, but none coincided with them.ConclusionsResults from this study outline glacial refugia as highly dynamic units. Most of the identified refugial areas have been lost by post‐glacial sea‐level rise. Accordingly, species persistence through the Late Pleistocene was not granted by long‐term environmental stability, but by the opportunity to shift species' distributions along altitudinal gradients, following changes in climate and habitat suitability. Notably, our results decouple glacial refugia from hotspots of genetic diversity. Thus, the current location of a hotspot should not be taken as evidence for the occurrence of a glacial refugium in that location—even though a refugium is likely to be located somewhere nearby.

Assessment of Climate Change and Land Use/Land Cover Effects on Aralia elata Habitat Suitability in Northeastern China

Climate change and land use/land cover (LULC) change have received widespread attention as the two main factors contributing to the shrinking of plant habitats. However, the different effects of these factors on understory economic tree species are not clear. This is not conducive to the conservation and exploitation of forest resources. Here, we used species distribution modeling to predict the extent to which climate change and LULC change will affect changes in suitable habitats for A. elata under different scenarios in the future. The results showed the suitable habitat to be located in the Changbai Mountain Range in northeast China. The current area is 110,962 km2. The main variables that affect the suitable habitat are annual precipitation, LULC, slope, and mean diurnal range. The percentage contributions are 31.2%, 16.8%, 12.8%, and 12.3%, respectively. In the 2070s, the area of high-quality (moderately and highly) suitable habitat was reduced by an average of 6.05% when climate alone changed, and by an average of 10.21% when land use alone changed. When both factors changed together, there was an average decrease of 9.69%. When climate change and land use change acted together, the shrinking area of suitable habitat did not suddenly increase. These findings help to identify potentially suitable habitats for A. elata and to carry out conservation and exploitation efforts to ensure sustainability.

Northeast Atlantic elasmobranch community on the move: Functional reorganization in response to climate change.

While spatial distribution shifts have been documented in many marine fishes under global change, the responses of elasmobranchs have rarely been studied, which may have led to an underestimation of their potential additional threats. Given their irreplaceable role in ecosystems and their high extinction risk, we used a 24-year time series (1997-2020) of scientific bottom trawl surveys to examine the effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of nine elasmobranch species within Northeast Atlantic waters. Using a hierarchical modeling of species communities, belonging to the joint species distribution models, we found that suitable habitats for four species increased on average by a factor of 1.6 and, for six species, shifted north-eastwards and/or to deeper waters over the past two decades. By integrating species traits, we showed changes in habitat suitability led to changes in the elasmobranchs trait composition. Moreover, communities shifted to deeper waters and their mean trophic level decreased. We also note an increase in the mean community size at maturity concurrent with a decrease in fecundity. Because skates and sharks are functionally unique and dangerously vulnerable to both climate change and fishing, we advocate for urgent considerations of species traits in management measures. Their use would make it better to identify species whose loss could have irreversible impacts in face of the myriad of anthropogenic threats.

The role of genotypic and climatic variation at the range edge: A case study in winegrapes.

Changes in habitat suitability due to climate change are causing range shifts, with new habitat potentially available at cold range edges. We must predict these range shifts, but forecasters have limited knowledge of how genetic differences in plant physiological tolerances influence range shifts. Here, we focus on a major determinant of species ranges-physiological tolerance to extreme cold-to ask how warming over recent decades and genetic variation shape expansion across complex landscapes. We examined how genotypes vary in maximum cold tolerance from 9 years of cold hardiness data across 18 genotypes from 13 sites, using winegrapes (Vitis vinifera subsp. vinifera) as a case study. Combining a Bayesian hierarchical dose-response model with gridded climate data, we then project changes in climatic suitability near winegrapes' current cold range-edge between 1949 and 2016. Plants increased maximum cold hardiness non-linearly with decreasing air temperature (maximum cold hardiness: -23.6°C), but with substantial (by 2°C) variation across genotypes. Our results suggest, since the 1980s, decreasing freeze injury risk has made conditions more favorable for all genotypes at the cold range-edge, but conditions remained more favorable for more cold hardy genotypes and in warmer areas. There was substantial spatial variation in habitat suitability, with the majority of suitably warm habitat located in a narrow north-south oriented strip. We highlight the importance of genotypic differences in physiological tolerances when assessing range shift potential with climate change. Habitat improvements were unevenly distributed over the spatially complex landscape, though, emphasizing the importance of dispersal in range expansion.

Impacts of livestock grazing on blue‐eared pheasants (Crossoptilon auritum) survival in subalpine forests of Southwest China

AbstractThe degradation and fragmentation of natural habitats, driven largely by anthropogenic activities such as grazing, represent growing concerns in environmental conservation. We examined the impact of grazing activities on the survival of the blue‐eared pheasant Crossoptilon auritum, a ground‐nesting bird endemic to subalpine forests. Using camera‐trapping and artificial nest experiments, we compared two sites in Sichuan, China: Wanglang (high grazing intensity) and Jiuzhaigou (no grazing) national nature reserves. The study, conducted from 2017 to 2021, evaluated habitat suitability changes for these pheasants and examined the impact of grazing on nesting success by conducting a nest predation experiment. The results of our study showed that (1) since the significant increase of free‐ranging livestock post‐2014, the area of most suitable and moderately suitable habitats for blue‐eared pheasants in Wanglang decreased by 14.28% (net loss 15.12 km2); (2) predominant natural predators of the pheasant, such as yellow‐throated martens (Martes flavigula) and leopard cats (Prionailurus bengalensis), were mostly observed to be spatially distant from livestock; (3) the pheasant's nesting failure rate was 2.18 times higher in Wanglang than in Jiuzhaigou; (4) high‐intensity livestock disturbance correlated with decreased food resources for pheasants, yet resulted in an increased abundance of Coleopteran insects. These results illustrate a complex dynamic: Although forest pheasants, such as the blue‐eared pheasant, may initially benefit from the presence of livestock through increased predator refuge and access to specific food resources, they ultimately face greater risks. These include a significant increase in nest failure rates and remarkable habitat loss and degradation. In light of these results, we advocate for strict control and management of grazing activities inside reserves. Additionally, we recommend the implementation of a systematic monitoring program that focuses on the population dynamics and habitat use of endangered pheasants in Southwest China.

Predicted changes in habitat suitability for human schistosomiasis intermediate host snails for modelled future climatic conditions in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Introduction: Climate change alters environmental and climatic conditions, leading to expansion or contraction and possible shifts in the geographical distribution of vectors that transmit diseases. Bulinus globosus and Biomphalaria pfeifferi are the intermediate host snails for human schistosomiasis in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province, South Africa.Methods: Using the Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, we modelled the current and future distribution of human schistosomiasis intermediate host snails in KZN using two representation concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the year 2085. Thirteen and ten bioclimatic variables from AFRICLIM were used to model the habitat suitability for B. globosus and B. pfeifferi, respectively. The Jack-knife test was used to evaluate the importance of each bioclimatic variable.Results: Mean temperature warmest quarter (BIO10, 37.6%), the number of dry months (dm, 32.6%), mean diurnal range in temperature (BIO2, 10.8%), isothermality (BIO3, 6.7%) were identified as the top four bioclimatic variables with significant contribution to the model for predicting the habitat suitability for B. globosus. Annual moisture index (mi, 34%), mean temperature warmest quarter (BIO10, 21.5%), isothermality (BIO3, 20.5%), and number of dry months (dm, 7%) were identified as the four important variables for the habitat suitability of B. pfeifferi. Area under the curve for the receiving operating characteristics was used to evaluate the performance of the model. The MaxEnt model obtained high AUC values of 0.791 and 0.896 for B. globosus and B. pfeifferi, respectively. Possible changes in the habitat suitability for B. globosus and B. pfeifferi were observed in the maps developed, indicating shrinkage and shifts in the habitat suitability of B. pfeifferi as 65.1% and 59.7% of the current suitable habitats may become unsuitable in the future under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Conversely, an expansion in suitable habitats for B. globosus was predicted to be 32.4% and 69.3% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, with some currently unsuitable habitats becoming suitable in the future.Discussion: These habitat suitability predictions for human schistosomiasis intermediate host snails in KZN can be used as a reference for implementing long-term effective preventive and control strategies for schistosomiasis.

Analysis of the Potential Range of Mountain Pine-Broadleaf Ecotone Forests and Its Changes under Moderate and Strong Climate Change in the 21st Century.

Climatic changes have a significant impact on the composition and distribution of forests, especially on ecotone ones. In the Southern Ural, pine-broadleaf ecotone forests were widespread during the early Holocene time, but now have persisted as relic plant communities. This study aimed to analyze the current potential range and to model changes in habitat suitability of relic pine-broadleaf ecotone forests of the suballiance Tilio-Pinenion under scenarios of moderate (RCP4.5) and strong (RCP8.5) climate change. For modelling, we used MaxEnt software with the predictors being climate variables from CHELSA Bioclim, the global digital soil mapping system SoilGrids and the digital elevation model. In the Southern and Middle Urals, climate change is expected to increase the areas with suitable habitat conditions of these forests by the middle of the 21st century and decrease them in the second half of the century. By the middle of the 21st century, the eastern range boundary of these forests will shift eastward due to the penetration of broad-leaved tree species into coniferous forests of the Southern Ural. In the second half of the century, on the contrary, it is expected that climate aridization will again shift the potential range border of these forests to the west due to their gradual replacement by hemiboreal coniferous forests. The relationship between the floristic composition of pine-broadleaf forests and habitat suitability was identified. In low and medium habitat suitability, pine-broadleaf forests contain more nemoral species characteristic of deciduous forests of the temperate zone, and can be replaced by broadleaf forests after thinning and removal of pine. In the Volga Upland, suitable habitats are occupied by pine-broadleaf forests of the vicariant suballiance Querco robori-Tilienion cordatae. Projected climatic changes will have a significant impact on these ecotone forests, which remained completely unaltered for a long time.

Simulation and analysis of red-crowned crane habitat suitability using maximum entropy and information entropy models

The red-crowned crane (Grus japonensis) is a rare waterfowl species that is sensitive to environmental changes in its habitat selection; as such it effectively reflects the variation in wetland landscapes. Therefore, analysis of the habitat suitability for the red-crowned crane can be used to determine the species requirements and to predict its potential habitat distribution, thereby providing a basis for the protection of wetlands and endangered species. In this study, the Landsat satellite remote sensing data of Zhalong Wetland from 1996 to 2019 were used to simulate the nest coordinates of red-crowned cranes using a binary logistic model and to simulate the distribution of suitable habitat via a maximum entropy model. Moreover, an information entropy model was used to examine the yearly changes in habitat suitability and the underlying mechanisms and influencing factors. These two entropy models were combined to simulate the habitat suitability distribution and variation with high accuracy, determine the contribution rates of influencing factors, and provide data for analyzing interannual changes. The following results were obtained. First, the habitat suitability was highest in the center, core area and decreased towards the periphery of Zhalong Wetland. Second, the habitat suitability increased in some regions in the south, decreased in some areas in the north, and remained unchanged in the majority of the peripheral regions. Third, habitat suitability was primarily impacted by landscape patterns, distances to rivers and ditches, and vegetation. Red-crowned cranes preferred to reside far from human disturbance in wetlands near rivers with reeds (Phragmites australis) as the dominant species.

Climate change impacts the risk of invasion of eucalypt pests in Brazil

Abstract Identifying areas at high risk of invasion is considered an important step for prioritization of phytosanitary measures to prevent biological invasions. Because climate change is likely to affect species' habitat suitability, ideally this should be considered in invasion risk assessments. We evaluated whether climate change affects habitat suitability and invasion risk of eight potentially invasive Eucalyptus pests in Brazil: Eucalyptolyma maideni, Mnesampela privata, Ophelimus maskelli, Orgyia postica, Paropsis atomaria, Paropsisterna beata, Paropsisterna cloelia and Trachymela sloanei. The shifts in the distribution range varied depending on the species, year and climate change scenario. While a decrease in the distribution range was predicted for four species, an increase was predicted for two species. Moreover, a decrease and/or increase in distribution depending on the climate change scenario was predicted for two species. Increases in invasion risk were predicted in major Eucalyptus‐producing areas near international airports and high cargo volume seaports. Our study provides an important contribution to knowledge on the effects of climate change on the distribution of eight potentially invasive Eucalyptus pests and reinforces the need to consider the changes in species' habitat suitability in invasion risk assessments.

Areas of spatial overlap between common bottlenose dolphin, recreational boating, and small-scale fishery: management insights from modelling exercises.

Sustainable management requires spatial mapping of both species distribution and human activities to identify potential risk of conflict. The common bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) is a priority species of the European Union Habitat Directive, thus, to promote its conservation, the understanding of habitat use and distribution, as well as the identification and spatial trend of the human activities which may directly affect populations traits, is pivotal. A MaxEnt modeling approach was applied to predict the seasonal (from April to September) habitat use of a small population of bottlenose dolphins in the north-western Sardinia (Mediterranean Sea) in relation to environmental variables and the likelihoods of boat and fishing net presence. Then, the overlapping areas between dolphin, fishing net and boat presence were identified to provide insights for the marine spatial management of this area. Three of the main factors influencing the seasonal distribution of bottlenose dolphins in the area are directly (boating and fishing) or indirectly (ocean warming) related to human activities. Furthermore, almost half of the most suitable area for dolphins overlapped with areas used by fishing and boating. Finally, relying on fishing distribution models, we also shed light on the potential impact of fishing on the Posidonia oceanica beds, a protected habitat, which received higher fishing efforts than other habitat types. Modelling the spatial patterns of anthropogenic activities was fundamental to understand the ecological impacts both on cetacean habitat use and protected habitats. A greater research effort is suggested to detect potential changes in dolphin habitat suitability, also in relation to ocean warming, to assess dolphin bycatch and the status of target fish species, and to evaluate sensitive habitats conditions, such as the Posidonia oceanica meadow.