Changes In Grain Production Research Articles

Evaluation of Food Security in North China Based on Food Production Level.

This paper focuses on county-level grain production and food security in North China; selects 17 indicators from both climatic conditions and human activities; applies yield fluctuation coefficients, spatial econometric modelling, the random forest method, and factor analysis to study the characteristics of grain production in North China and the influencing factors; and evaluates the situation of food security in North China based on grain production capacity. The following results were obtained: (1) The spatial and temporal changes in grain production located in North China from 2000 to 2020 are obvious. The grain output in North China from 2000 to 2020 maintains fluctuating growth at a rate of 0.38 × 1011 kg/10a. The east and south are the key areas for grain production in North China. Grain output was relatively stable except for 2003. with the cold spots of grain production being mainly in the northwestern area and the hot spots in the central and southern areas. (2) The changes in grain production in North China from 2000 to 2020 were less affected by climate and mainly influenced by human activity indicators. (3) As time progresses, the area of food shortage zones decreases in size, becoming evenly distributed and dispersed from the initial concentration in northern Hebei and most of Shanxi; the change in the supply-demand equilibrium zones is not obvious; and the area of surplus grain zones increases markedly in size, with a tendency to expand from the south and centre of the study area to the west and north. The grain production capacity of counties in the northwest and north is generally low, and even counties located in surplus grain areas have potential food security risks. However, in the east and south, due to their high grain production capacity, the per capita grain supply situation may be alleviated even in counties located in grain shortage areas. This study can deepen the understanding of the characteristics of food production in North China and enrich the research on food security. Analyses of factors influencing food production will improve a deeper understanding of food security. Food security evaluation based on food production capacity will contribute to a more precise and comprehensive understanding of the food security pattern in North China.

Concurrent response of tree growth and grain productivity to climate change: A case study from climatic transition zone in central China

Climate change affects the growth of regional vegetation; both trees and grain crops often change concurrently, such that the annual radial growth of trees shows consistent inter-annual variations with the total grain crop productivity. However, it remains unclear whether they exhibit concurrent responses to climate factors, and that there lacks of the study on long-term high-resolution variations of grain crops productivity. This paper employs a Pinus massoniana tree-ring series from the Tongbai Mountains to analyze the correlations between tree-ring chronology, local climate data and grain productivity indicators (i.e., total sown grain areas (TSA), total grain outputs (TGO), and average grain yield per hectare (YPH)) of Henan Province in central China. The results indicate that temperature in March and August was the main limiting factor on tree growth, and the best concurrent relationship with tree growth was TSA, which has a correlation of 0.747 (p < 0.001) during 1959–2020. Therefore, a 124-year TSA series in Henan Province was reconstructed using tree-ring data from the Tongbai Mountains, which reveals there were two distinct low periods of total grain sown area in the 1920 s-1930 s and 1980 s-2000 s. There are significant cycles of about 2.57a (p < 0.01), 2.89a (p < 0.05), and 10.95a (p < 0.1), indicating that vegetation growth might be affected by large-scale climate forcing, such as ENSO (2-7a cycle) and sunspot activity (11a cycle). Overall, this study outlines a new approach to understand long-term changes in grain production, which is conducive to grain management and socioeconomic sustainability.

Value of grain-growing sector within agro-industrial production: Structural changes and development trends

During the 20th and first quarter of the 21st century, there have been not only significant quantitative, but also structural changes in grain production close to some central applications of grain: food consumption, fodder consumption, industrial consumption, provision of seed production, foreign trade. Strategic planning of grain production in the country depends on many factors, including changes in grain production and processing technologies, widespread and accelerated integration of selective breeding results, multifactorial modeling of animal diets. The volume of consumption and the structure of cereals in the total volume of production is impacted by such processes as population growth, urbanization and changes in dietary preferences of modern people. One of the most important tasks in the development of the farming industry is to assess some possible prospects for the development of grain growing, with due account for new priorities to come up in the use of the entire biodiversity of cereals. Benchmark analysis of the ratio between the volumes of production, consumption and export-import of grain, rationale for the optimal characteristics of the grain-growing sector of the national economy, as an essential element of strategic potential, represent one of the fundamental interdisciplinary challenges facing modern science.

АНАЛИЗ ПЕРСПЕКТИВ РАЗВИТИЯ ПОТЕНЦИАЛА ЗЕРНОВОГО КОМПЛЕКСА ЧЕРЕЗ ПРИЗМУ СОВРЕМЕННЫХ ПРОБЛЕМ ЗЕМЛЕПОЛЬЗОВАНИЯ В АГРАРНОМ СЕКТОРЕ

The article is devoted to the problems of ensuring stability of the national grain market at the present stage of successful development of the agro-industrial complex of the country and increase in global threats and risks. The purpose of the study is to assess possibilities of achieving the set tasks and degree of implementation of the existing resource potential of the grain complex in conditions of imperfection of land relations in the agricultural sector of the economy. The information base was the data of Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, characterizing the dynamics of the development of grain production in the whole country for the period from pre-reform 1990 till 2020. They were also used to analyze changes in land use parameters in agriculture of the Russian Federation and in the context of federal districts for 2000–2019. Prerequisites and effectiveness of positive changes in grain production in recent years, allowing the country to occupy a leading position in the world grain market, are considered. Based on the analysis, it is concluded of the existing instability of grain yield level and bulk yield as well as the necessity to increase the acreage for meeting domestic needs and rising export supplies of products. Significant shortcomings of the existing model of land relations in the agricultural sector, which can be a deterrent to increasing the presence of our country in the world grain market, are shown. The realization of reproductive opportunities of the grain complex and, first of all, introduction of significant areas of unused land into turnover will contribute to the elimination of existing land use risks. At the same time, the most important institution-mechanism for solving these problems is the measures of the «State Program for Effective Involvement in the Turnover of Agricultural Land and the Development of the Reclamation Complex of the Russian Federation for 2022–2031».

Potential Influence of Climate Change on Grain Self‐Sufficiency at the Country Level Considering Adaptation Measures

AbstractIn recent decades, grain self‐sufficiency has been a key security issue for certain countries, such as Russia, China, India, and France. Climate change may affect agricultural production and possibly influence the grain self‐sufficiency of some countries, threatening their food security. This article provides an updated integrated assessment of the impact of climate change on grain self‐sufficiency at the country level. The study links climatic variables projected by global climate models to economic variables simulated by a global multiregion multisector economic model. Although climate change may considerably reduce land productivity, our simulation results show that climate change in the long term modestly impacts regional grain self‐sufficiency, as the direct effects on yield are largely canceled out by changes in grain production via adaptation measures taken by producers in response to market signals. Behavioral changes of consumers also contribute modestly to cancel out the adverse impact on land productivity. In the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the adverse impact of climate change on land productivity in 2100 may reach to 25% of the current level, but declines to 5% when changes in production and consumption are considered, thus indicating the role of long‐term adaptation by economic agents.

Tendencies of grain production and processing in the regions of Ukraine

The volumes and changes in grain production in the regions of Ukraine are analyzed. The grain production volumes are revealed to have increased by 11.11% in 2013-2018. Poltava, Vinnytsia and Chernihiv regions were the leaders among the regions, where they produced about 24.5% of the total grain in Ukraine. The paper determines that high levels of grain production have led to an oversaturation of the domestic market and increased exports of this product. At the same time, the volumes and growth rates of wheat or wheat-rye flour, which is the basis of deep processing, decreased. The production of this grain processing product is concentrated in Vinnytsia, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Khmelnytsky regions. In total, more than 50% of flour from the total production in Ukraine were produced in these regions in 2018. According to trends in grain production and its processing, regions of Ukraine are grouped into: regions with high levels of grain production and processing (Vinnytsia, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Khmelnytsky); regions with high levels of grain production and low volumes of its processing (Poltava, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Sumy, Odesa, Kirovohrad oblasts); regions with a tendency to increase the volumes of grain processing (Zhytomyr, Lviv and Volyn oblasts); regions that increase grain production, but the volume of its processing decreases (Ternopil, Kherson, Zaporizhia, Rivne and Ivano-Frankivsk and Mykolaiv); regions with a tendency to decrease the volume of grain production and processing (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zakarpattya and Chernivtsi regions. The ways of further development of these regions in terms of grain production and processing are suggested. The following measures will contribute to consolidation of positive trends in grain production: updating of technological support of grain production in order to reduce its cost and increase the opportunities for creating an ecological product that will be competitive in the world market; increase of elevator capacity, which will prevent the risk of losses due to poor storage of products.

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Agricultural Product Price Fluctuations on China’s Grain Yield

In recent years, food security, especially supply, has been an important issue in China’s agricultural production. The stability of grain prices is related to the stability and development of the grain market. Based on agricultural production data from 1970 to 2015, this paper explores the influence of agricultural product price fluctuation on grain production by using the cobweb theory and vector error correction (VEC) model. The results show that changes in grain production in China are affected by fluctuations in agricultural product prices, that the production change lags behind the price change, and that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between grain yield and agricultural product price. A Granger causality test shows that the change in agricultural product price is the Granger cause of grain yield change.

An integrated ecosystem service assessment in an artificial desert oasis of northwestern China

ABSTRACTSpatially explicit integrated assessment of ecosystem services is a new and important research field in landscape ecology. The objective of this paper was to develop an integrated process-based modeling method to simulate changes in multiple ecosystem services in 2000–2009 at pixel and regional scales in the Zhangye oasis of northwestern China. Six ecosystem service indicators were selected and quantified using process-based models, including net primary production (NPP), grain production, net oxygen production (NOP), carbon sequestration (CS), water conservation, and soil conservation. Analytical results were as follows: (1) At the oasis scale, NPP, NOP, CS, water conservation, and soil conservation decreased from 2000 to 2009, whereas grain production increased. (2) At the pixel scale, the spatial changes in NPP were similar to those in NOP and CS, but changes in grain production showed the opposite pattern. Water conservation and soil conservation showed somewhat unintuitive spatial patterns. (3) The impact of land-use forms on ecosystem services showed that grazing and township construction both had negative impacts on all services, but that nature conservation and wetland development had positive impacts on all services. This research showed that the integrated modeling can be proposed as an environmental decision-making tool in similar case studies.

Changes in Grain Production and the Optimal Spatial Allocation of Water Resources in China

Abstract: Changes in grain production are decomposed and compared among nine major Chinese river basins for the sake of optimal water allocation. The results show that water-deficient northern China, especially the Songliao River Basin and Huai River Basin, contributed the greatest share of the total grain increment from 1995 to 2010. The Songliao River Basin achieved increased grain output largely by expanding multiple cropping, while the Huai River Basin achieved it mainly by improving the yield per unit area. With increased reliance on expanding irrigation and multi-cropping, most northern basins have high levels of agricultural water consumption, despite the rising share of corn, a lower water intensive crop. In contrast, over the same period the warm and humid south, traditionally a major rice-growing area, mostly experienced a sharp decline in rice cropping area and the Southeast Rivers Basin even reduced multiple cropping indexes, contributing to decreased agricultural water consumption. Implicatio...

Spatial-Temporal Changes in Grain Production, Consumption and Driving Mechanism in China

The spatial-temporal patterns of grain production and consumption have an important influence on the effective national grain supply on condition of tight balance in the total grain amount in China. In this paper, we analyze the spatial-temporal patterns of grain production, consumption and the driving mechanism for their evolution processes in China. The results indicate that both gravity centers of grain production and consumption in China moved toward the northern and eastern regions, almost in the same direction. The coordination of grain production and consumption increased slightly from 1995 to 2007 but decreased from 2000 to 2007. There is a spatial difference between the major districts of output increase and the strong growth potential in grain consumption, which indicates an increasing difficulty in improving the regional coordination of grain production and consumption. The movement of the gravity center of grain production is significantly correlated with regional differences in grain production policy, different economic development models, and spatial disparity of land and water resource use. For grain consumption, the main driving factors include rapid urbanization, the upgrade of food consumption structure, and distribution of food industries.

Grain Production Driven by Variations in Farmland use in China: An Analysis of Security Patterns

Abstract: In China, the pattern of farmland use has been greatly changed due to the rapid development of the economy, since economic reform in 1978. Variations in available farmland, in terms of both quantity and quality, have brought about changes in grain production. This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal pattern of China' s level of farmland use for the period 1978 to 2004, and develops a “farmland—grain elasticity coefficient” (FGEC) to reflect the interrelationship between changes in farmland use and levels of grain production, using agricultural statistical data from local governments. The outcome of this study indicates that since 1978 the effect of farmland loss on grain security has been somewhat abated, due to increased investments and the subsequent improvements on farmland. Since the initiation of economic reform, China' s level of farmland use has been generally improved. These improvements are mainly due to rapid economic development and constitute a move across a gradient from the southeast...

China’s potential of grain production due to changes in agricultural land utilization in recent years

The changes in utilization of agricultural land have gradually grown into one of the major factors impacting grain output in China. This study explores the various components of agricultural production in China from the land utilization perspective, involving changes in grain production per unit area, multi-cropping index, and adjustment of agricultural structure. Compared with the record values, different research methodologies are used to analyze the po- tential of above three components. The results indicate that grain production potential of 65.68×10 9 kg was unexploited in 2006, in which 45.8×10 9 kg came from the restructuring in agriculture. So we can infer that the reduction of grain production in China could be primarily attributed to agricultural restructuring in recent years. So the productive poten- tial can be fully restored by increasing agricultural investment, or recovering agricultural structure in favorable condi- tions. So we can say that China's current condition of food security is good.

Changes in Grain Production, Mechanisms for Sale of Grain and Possible Effects on Grain Quality in Lithuania in the Period 1990-1999

Changes in Grain Production, Mechanisms for Sale of Grain and Possible Effects on Grain Quality in Lithuania in the Period 1990-1999

Grain-Stream Velocity Measurements

P grain damage is a common problem in the grain industry. The technological changes in grain production and harvesting, especially the recent shift to field shelling of corn, have added to this problem. Either field-shelled or artificially dried corn is often brittle and easily broken. With the repeated handling common in commercial marketing channels, breakage of the brittle grain frequently is extensive enough to lower its value. A study was conductedi to determine the cause and extent of grain damage by various commercial handling techniques (4)*. In the course of this study, it appeared that velocity was a common denominator of grain breakage. The project was extended to include the measurement of grain velocities produced by the handling methods tested, and to correlate these with grain breakage. High-speed photography was used to measure grain velocity. Reported in this paper are the stream velocities measured for yellow corn, yellow soybeans, and hard, red winter wheat in freefall drop and when handled by a grain thrower and a bucket elevator.