Changes In Frequency Of Occurrence Research Articles

Comparative Toxicology of Syringe Exchange and Post-Mortem Blood Samples in the District of Columbia: Trends and Affinity Analysis.

This cross-sectional analysis aimed to understand the similarities and differences between drugs detected in syringes collected from syringe service providers in the District of Columbia and fatal overdose deaths captured by the State Unintentional Drug Overdose Reporting System. Substance exposures for these fatal and non-fatal drug use outcomes have not been previously compared. Substance distributions were examined and a paired significance test was used to compare changes over time. Affinity analysis was employed to reveal substance co-occurrences. Between September, 2020-2022, 1,118 post-mortem blood samples and 3,646 syringes were processed, with fatal overdoses increasing 24.1%. Polysubstance use was more commonly found in post-mortem blood (82.5%) than syringe exchange samples (48.6%). Of samples containing opioids, 94.8% of blood samples and 86.3% of syringes contained fentanyl, fentanyl analogs, or fentanyl precursors/metabolites. Post-mortem blood samples had double the frequency of co-occurring stimulants and opioids (43.9%) as syringe exchange samples (21.8%). Major changes in occurrence frequency over time were found for opioid and stimulant exposure in both groups, especially in the increased occurrence of fluorofentanyl (>400%), methamphetamine (>90%), and xylazine (>60%) while the incidence of fentanyl, heroin, and metabolite morphine declined. These results indicate that while fatal use and syringe exchange populations have distinct substance exposures which may contribute to differences in mortality rate, their substance distributions have similar change magnitudes. This study highlights the utility of using multiple data sources to provide a comprehensive description of drug use patterns and discusses the limitations in reporting data from each source.

On the linkage between future Arctic sea ice retreat, Euro-Atlantic circulation regimes and temperature extremes over Europe

Abstract. The question to what extent Arctic sea ice loss is able to affect atmospheric dynamics and climate extremes over mid-latitudes still remains a highly debated topic. In this study we investigate model experiments from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) and compare experiments with future sea ice loss prescribed over the entire Arctic, as well as only locally over the Barents and Kara seas, with a present-day reference experiment. The first step is to perform a regime analysis and analyze the change in occurrence frequencies of five computed Euro-Atlantic winter circulation regimes. Forced by future Arctic sea ice conditions, most models show more frequent occurrences of a Scandinavian blocking pattern in at least 1 winter month, whereas there is an overall disagreement between individual models on the sign of frequency changes of two regimes that, respectively, resemble the negative and positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Focusing on the ECHAM6 PAMIP experiments, we subsequently employ a framework of conditional extreme-event attribution. It demonstrates how detected regime frequency changes can be used to decompose sea-ice-induced frequency changes of European temperature extremes into two different contributions: one “changed-regime” term that is related to dynamical changes in regime occurrence frequencies and another more thermodynamically motivated “fixed-regime” contribution that is related to increased surface temperatures during a specific circulation regime. We show how the overall fixed-regime warming effect and also an increased Scandinavian blocking pattern frequency under future sea ice reductions can equally contribute to and shape the overall response signal of European cold extremes in midwinter. We also demonstrate how a decreased occurrence frequency of an anticyclonic regime over the eastern Atlantic dynamically counteracts the fixed-regime warming response and results in no significant changes in overall January warm-extreme occurrences. However, when compared to other characteristics of future climate change, such as the thermodynamical impact of globally increased sea surface temperatures, the effects of Arctic sea ice loss on European temperature extremes are of secondary relevance.

Woody encroachment happens via intensification, not extensification, of species ranges in an African savanna.

Widespread woody encroachment is a prominent concern for savanna systems as it is often accompanied by losses in productivity and biodiversity. Extensive ecosystem-level work has advanced our understanding of its causes and consequences. However, there is still debate over whether local management can override regional and global drivers of woody encroachment, and it remains largely unknown how encroachment influences woody community assemblages. Here, we examined species-level changes in woody plant distributions and size structure from the late 1980s to the late 2000s based on spatially intensive ground-based surveys across Kruger National Park, South Africa. This study region spans broad gradients in rainfall, soil texture, fire frequency, elephant density, and other topographic variables. Species-level changes in frequency of occurrence and size class proportion reflected widespread woody encroachment primarily by Dichrostachys cinerea and Combretum apiculatum, and a loss of large trees mostly of Sclerocarya birrea and Acacia nigrescens. Environmental variables determining woody species distributions across Kruger varied among species but did not change substantially between two sampling times, indicating that woody encroachers were thickening within their existing ranges. Overall, more areas across Kruger were found to have an increased number of common woody species through time, which indicated an increase in stem density. These areas were generally associated with decreasing fire frequency and rainfall but increasing elephant density. Our results suggest that woody encroachment is a widespread but highly variable trend across landscapes in Kruger National Park and potentially reflects an erosion of local heterogeneity in woody community assemblages. Many savanna managers, including in Kruger, aim to manage for heterogeneity in order to promote biodiversity, where homogenization of vegetation structure counters this specific goal. Increasing fire frequency has some potential as a local intervention. However, many common species increased in commonness even under near-constant disturbance conditions, which likely limits the potential for managing woody encroachment in the face of drivers beyond the scope of local control. Regular field sampling coupled with targeted fire management will enable more accurate monitoring of the rate of encroachment intensification.

Long-term study of Borrelia and Babesia prevalence and co-infection in Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor recticulatus ticks removed from humans in Poland, 2016\u20132019

BackgroundLyme borreliosis (LB) is the most common vector-borne disease in Europe. Monitoring changes in the prevalence of different Borrelia species in ticks may be an important indicator of risk assessment and of differences in pathogenicity in humans. The objective of our study was to assess the prevalence, co-infection and distribution of Borrelia and Babesia species in ticks removed from humans in a large sample collected during a study period of 4 years.MethodsThe ticks were collected throughout Poland from March to November over 4-year period from 2016 to 2019. All ticks (n = 1953) were morphologically identified in terms of species and developmental stage. Molecular screening for Borrelia and Babesia by amplification of the flagellin gene (flaB) or 18S rRNA marker was performed. Pathogen identity was confirmed by Sanger sequencing or PCR–restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis.ResultsThe ticks removed from humans in Poland during this study belonged to two species: Ixodes ricinus (97%) and Dermacentor reticulatus (3%). High Borrelia prevalence (25.3%), including B. miyamotoi (8.4%), was confirmed in Ixodes ricinus ticks removed from humans, as was the change in frequency of occurrence of Borrelia species during the 4-year study. Despite Babesia prevalence being relatively low (1.3%), the majority of tested isolates are considered to be pathogenic to humans. Babesia infection was observed more frequently among Borrelia-positive ticks (2.7%) than among ticks uninfected with Borrelia (0.8%). The most frequent dual co-infections were between Borrelia afzelii and Babesia microti. The presence of Borrelia was also confirmed in D. reticulatus (12.7%); however the role of these ticks in spirochete transmission to susceptible hosts is still unclear.ConclusionsAlthough the overall risk of developing LB after a tick bite is low in Europe, knowledge of the prevalence and distribution of Borrelia and Babesia species in ticks might be an important indicator of the risk of both these tick-borne diseases.Graphical abstract

Declines in occurrence of plants characteristic for a nutrient-poor meadow habitat are partly explained by their responses to nutrient addition and competition.

Species losses and local extinctions are alarmingly common, frequently as a consequence of habitat destruction. Nevertheless, many intact habitats also face species losses, most likely due to environmental changes. However, the exact drivers, and why they affect some species more than others in apparently intact habitats, are still poorly understood. Addressing these questions requires data on changes in occurrence frequency of many species, and comparisons of the responses of those species to experimental manipulations of the environment. Here, we use historic (1911) and contemporary (2017) data on the presence–absence of 42 plant species in 14 seemingly intact Molinia meadows around Lower Lake Constance to quantify changes in occurrence frequency. Then, we performed a common‐garden experiment to test whether occurrence frequencies in 1911 and changes therein by 2017 could be explained by responses of the 42 species to nutrient addition and competition with the acquisitive generalist grass Poa pratensis. Within the 14 still intact Molinia meadows, 36 of the 42 species had declined since 1911. As expected, nutrient addition generally led to increased biomass production of the 42 target species, and competition with P. pratensis had a negative effect. The latter was stronger at high nutrient availability. The more frequent species were in 1911 and the more they declined in frequency between 1911 and 2017, the less above‐ground biomass they produced in our experiment. Competition with P. pratensis magnified this effect. Our work highlights that environmental change can contribute to local extinction of species in otherwise intact habitat remnants. Specifically, we showed that increased nutrient availability negatively affected formerly widespread Molinia‐meadow species in competition with P. pratensis. Our study thus identified a likely mechanism for the decline in occurrence frequency of species in the remaining Molinia meadows.

La Sal Daisy,Erigeron mancus,Density and Associated Species from Treeline Ecotone and Alpine Habitats

The La Sal daisy, Erigeron mancus, is endemic to treeline ecotone and alpine meadow habitats of the La Sal Mountains in Utah, an insular, laccolithic mountain range on the Colorado Plateau in southeastern Utah. From 2009 to 2011 we established elevational transects through upper spruce-fir forest, treeline ecotone, and alpine meadow habitats on Laurel Ridge in the Middle Mountain group of the La Sal Mountains to measure (1) periodic changes in E. mancus population density, (2) changes in the elevation of the E. mancus population centroid, (3) changes in patch size occupied by E. mancus, and (4) changes in frequency of occurrence in herbaceous plant species associated with E. mancus along these transects. We measured both E. mancus density and vascular plant species composition within 1-m × 1-m square frames in mid-July, near peak alpine plant flowering time. The E. mancus population density on Mt. Laurel ridge did not significantly change from 2009 to 2015, but the species was most abundant in alpine meadow habitat for both years. Changes in patch width, centroid elevation, and frequency of occurrence of 30 associated plant species were also not statistically significant. Like E. mancus, most species show changes in frequency of occurrence between upper spruce-fir forest, treeline ecotone, and alpine meadow habitats. Individual plants of E. mancus are probably long-lived perennials, so changes in population density and distribution due to global warming are expected to be gradual and/or have an unknown lag time. Although there is no evidence of ongoing change in the Laurel Ridge population of E. mancus, having this information will provide a solid statistical basis for determining significant future changes.

Implementing a Comprehensive Unit-Based Safety Program (CUSP) to Enhance a Culture of Patient Safety and Improve Medication Safety in a Regional Home Care Program.

To determine whether a Comprehensive Unit-based Safety Program could be used to enhance a culture of patient safety and improve medication safety at 1 pilot site. The Canadian Patient Safety Culture Survey tool was used to assess the culture of patient safety and drill down on the key factors contributing to medication errors. Based on staff input and site improvement team investigations, solutions were developed to address medication safety issues. The main outcome measure was pre-/postintervention Canadian Patient Safety Culture scores. Change in frequency of occurrence reporting and staff's overall project experience were also measured. Overall perceptions of patient safety culture improved from 70% preintervention to 76.8% postintervention, representing a 9.7% change. Volume of occurrence reporting showed a marked increase postintervention. The project was well received by staff, with 84% rating their experience as "Good" to "Excellent." Finally 100% of participants reported that they learned something new and that this information could be applied to improve their day-to-day work. Implementing a Comprehensive Unit-based Safety Program improved staff's perceptions of patient safety, contributing to improved medication safety. To our knowledge, this is the first application of Comprehensive Unit-based Safety Program to successfully enhance patient safety in the home care setting.

Changes in Antimicrobial Susceptibility Pattern of Blood Isolates at a University Hospital in the Kyungnam area during 2005-2014

Objectives Blood culture is a one of the most important procedure for diagnosis and treatment of infectious disease, but distribution of pathogenic species and the antimicrobial susceptibility can be vary from pathogen, individual trait, regional or environmental features. In this study, we investigated the changes in frequency of occurrence and antimicrobial susceptibility pattern of blood isolates from 2005 to 2014. Methods Data of blood isolates from Kosin Gospel Hospital during 2005 to 2014 were analyzed retrospectively. Blood isolates were cultured for 5 days using BACTEC Plus Aerobic/F and BACTEC lytic/10 Anaerobic/F. Identification and antimicrobial susceptibility test was performed using VITEK 1 system, VITEK 2 XL, PHOENIX 100 and conventional method. Results 9,847 isolates were identified during 10 years. Among the isolates aerobic or falcutative anaerobic bacteria were isolated in 99.5% specimens, anaerobic were 0.1%, and fugi were 0.4%. Most commonly isolated bacteria were coagulase-negative Staphylococcus (CoNS) followed by Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus and Klebsiella pneumoniae. Candida parapsilosis were most frequently isolated among fungi. The proportion of S. aureus, A. baumannii and E. faecium were increased, while Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Streptococcus pneumoniae decreased over decennium. Imipenem resistant K. pneumoniae were identified. Vancomycin resistant E. faecium and imipenem resistant A. baumannii were increased (7.1% in 2005 to 12.3% in 2014, 0% in 2005 to 55.6% in 2014, respectively). Conclusions Over the last 10 year, CoNS were the most frequently isolated pathogen. Imipenem resistant K. pneumoniae was emerged. Vancomycin resistant E. faecium and imipenem resistant A. baumannii increased during this period.

CHANGES IN FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE OF YEARLY PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN THE LUBLIN REGION IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE 20TH CENTURY

The aim of this paper is to characterise changes in frequency of occurrence of anomalous yearly sums of atmospheric precipitation in the Lublin region in the period 1951–2000. In the second half of the 20th century negative precipitation anomaly occurred in a larger number of stations than the positive anomaly. Particularly strong anomalies were observed in two decades (1951–1960 and 1981–1990). However, during two following decades (1961–1970 and 1971–1980) the positive anomaly occurred in more stations.

A Data-Driven Method to Identify (Correlated) Changes in Chronological Corpora

In this paper, an exploratory data-driven method is presented that extracts word-types from diachronic corpora that have undergone the most pronounced change in frequency of occurrence in a given period of time. Combined with statistical methods from time series analysis, the method is able to find meaningful patterns and relationships in diachronic corpora, an idea that is still uncommon in linguistics. This indicates that the approach can facilitate an improved understanding of diachronic processes.

Influence of Model Biases on Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Frequency of Occurrence*

Abstract The influence of model biases on projected future changes in the frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclones (FOCs) was investigated using a new empirical statistical method. Assessments were made of present-day (1979–2003) simulations and future (2075–99) projections, using atmospheric general circulation models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The models project significant decreases in global-total FOCs by approximately 6%–40%; however, model biases introduce an uncertainty of approximately 10% in the total future changes. The influence of biases depends on the model physics rather than model resolutions and emission scenarios. In general, the biases result in overestimates of projected future changes in basin-total FOCs in the north Indian Ocean (by +18%) and South Atlantic Ocean (+143%) and underestimates in the western North Pacific Ocean (−27%), eastern North Pacific Ocean (−29%), and North Atlantic Ocean (−53%). The calibration of model performance using the smaller bias influence appears crucial to deriving meaningful signals in future FOC projections. To obtain more reliable projections, ensemble averages were calculated using the models less influence by model biases. Results indicate marked decreases in projected FOCs in the basins of the Southern Hemisphere, Bay of Bengal, western North Pacific Ocean, eastern North Pacific, and Caribbean Sea and increases in the Arabian Sea and the subtropical central Pacific Ocean.

Frequency of deep convective clouds in the tropical zone from 10 years of AIRS data

Abstract. Deep convective clouds (DCCs) have been widely studied because of their association with heavy precipitation and severe weather events. Changes in the properties of DCCs are likely in a changing climate. Ten years of data collected by Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) allow us to identify decadal trends in frequency of occurrence of DCCs over land and ocean. In the past, DCCs have been identified in the thermal infrared by three methods: (1) thresholds based on the absolute value of an atmospheric window channel brightness temperature; (2) thresholds based on the difference between the brightness temperature in an atmospheric window channel and the brightness temperature centered on a strong water vapor absorption line; and (3) a threshold using the difference between the window channel brightness temperature and the tropopause temperature based on climatology. Simultaneous observations of these infrared identified DCCs with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit–Humidity Sounder for Brazil (AMSU-HSB) using 183 GHz water channels provide a statistical correlation with microwave deep convection and overshooting convection. In the past 10 years, the frequency of occurrence of DCCs has decreased for the tropical ocean, while it has increased for tropical land. The area of the tropical zone associated with DCCs is typically much less than 1%. We find that the least frequent, more extreme DCCs show the largest trend in frequency of occurrence, increasing over land and decreasing over ocean. The trends for land and ocean closely balance, such that the DCC frequency changed at an insignificant rate for the entire tropical zone. This pattern of essentially zero trend for the tropical zone, but opposite land/ocean trends, is consistent with measurements of global precipitation. The changes in frequency of occurrence of the DCCs are correlated with the Niño34 index, which defines the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the east-central Pacific. This is also consistent with patterns seen in global precipitation. This suggests that the observed changes in the frequency are part of a decadal variability characterized by shifts in the main tropical circulation patterns, which does not fully balance in the 10-year AIRS data record. The regional correlations and anti-correlations of the DCC frequency anomaly with the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) provide a new perspective for the regional analysis of past events, since the SST anomaly in the Nino34 region is available in the form of the extended MEI from 1871.

Grazing Method Effect on Topographical Vegetation Characteristics and Livestock Performance in the Nebraska Sandhills

A study was conducted on upland range in the Nebraska Sandhills to determine differences in plant species frequency of occurrence and standing crop at various topographic positions on pastures grazed with short-duration grazing (SDG) and deferred-rotation grazing (DRG). Pastures within each grazing treatment were grazed at comparable stocking rates (SDG = 1.84 animal unit months (AUM) · ha−1; DRG = 1.94 AUM · ha−1) by cow–calf pairs from 1999 to 2005 and cow–calf pairs and spayed heifers from 2006 to 2008. Plant frequency of occurrence data were collected from permanently marked transects prior to, midway through, and at the conclusion of the study (1998, 2003, and 2008, respectively) and standing crop data were collected annually from 2001 to 2008 at four topographic positions (dune top, interdune, north slope, and south slope). Livestock performance data were collected during the last 3yr of the study (2006 to 2008). Positive change in frequency of occurrence of prairie sandreed (Calamovilfa longifolia [Hook.] Scribn.) was 42% greater on DRG pastures than SDG after 10yr. Total live standing crop did not differ between DRG and SDG except in 2001 when standing crop was 23% greater on DRG pastures. Standing crop of forbs and sedge was variable between grazing methods on interdune topographic positions depending on year. Average daily gain of spayed heifers (0.84± kg · d−1 SE) did not differ between SDG and DRG. Overall, SDG was not superior to a less intensively managed grazing method (i.e., DRG) in terms of vegetation characteristics and livestock performance.

Temporal changes in occurrence frequency of bowel sounds both in fasting state and after eating

Food evaluation technology that takes into account the constitutional predisposition and health of an individual's digestive system should aid in the development of value-added foods for patients and people who require health care. Based on the assumption that the degree of bowel activity changes depending on each individual's constitutional predisposition, health, and tolerance of the consumed foods, we investigated bowel sounds as an index of bowel activity. We have developed a method for investigating changes in bowel activity by performing long-term continuous recording of bowel sounds and observing changes in the occurrence frequency of bowel sounds per unit of time. In order to obtain basic data, we made recordings of eight healthy adults. We observed that bowel sounds continued even after the most recently consumed food had been nearly completely digested. In addition, we found that the occurrence frequency of bowel sounds of normal intensity (stethoscope audible) did not synchronize with that of minimal intensity (amplifier audible) in the fasting state. In contrast, the former did synchronize with the latter during digestion.

Changes in rice disasters across China in recent decades and the meteorological and agronomic causes

Both climate extremes and agricultural disasters have been reported to increase in recent decades; however, so far, we have little idea on the characteristics of agricultural disasters changes, as well as their meteorological and agronomic causes. Here, using the observed records on rice disasters at agro-meteorological stations across China and the meteorological indexes, we investigated the temporal and spatial changes of major rice disasters occurrence frequency and their relationships to climate change, climate extremes and agronomic practices from 1991 to 2009. We presented the temporal and spatial changes in occurrence frequency of major rice disasters, including droughts, floods, heat stress, chilling damage, insects and diseases, during the warmer period of 2000–2009, in comparison with the period of 1991–2000, based on both the observed records and the meteorological indexes. The results showed that changes in rice disasters could be largely ascribed to changes in climate extremes in recent decades. Floods, insects and diseases occurred more frequently at earlier growth stages; in contrast, chilling damage occurred more frequently at later growth stages in southwestern China during the period of 2000–2009, in comparison with the period of 1991–2000. Our findings highlighted the options should be taken timely and scientifically to reduce the disasters and to cope with ongoing climate change, based on the characteristics of agricultural disasters changes in recent decades.

Epiphytic lichen communities in chestnut stands in Central-North Italy

AbstractChestnut forest ecosystems represent an important component of the European Mediterranean basin and the Southern Alps landscape. Despite the good knowledge acquired in the phytosanitary and cultural aspects of chestnut, there is still a lack of data on the relationships between chestnut and epiphytes. We have investigated the changes in frequency of occurrence and species composition of lichen assemblages against the main site characteristics and environmental variables in chestnut woods along a bioclimatic and geographical gradient in Central-North Italy.The study has highlighted a geographic gradient from the Western Alps to the Northern Apennines. We recorded a total of 152 taxa, only 49 of which occurring in all the bioclimatic zones. The distribution of lichen communities in chestnut stands is mainly associated with increasing precipitation and decreasing temperature, thus confirming the prevailing influence of macroclimatic factors on epiphytic lichens. The species composition statistically differs also in stands differently managed (orchards vs. coppices).Chestnut woods host interesting communities, with rare species related to Lobarion, and can represent a good habitat for threatened epiphytic species.

The themes, institutions, and people of medical education research 1988–2010: content analysis of abstracts from six journals

The present study aimed at providing an overview of the most common themes of research into medical education. Changes in frequency of occurrence of these themes over time and differences between US and European journals were studied. The most productive institutions and researchers in the field were examined. A content analysis was carried out on 10,168 abstracts extracted from the six most influential journals in medical education published since 1988. Twenty-nine major themes were identified, of which student assessment, clinical and communication skills, clinical clerkships, and problem-based learning were the most prominent ones. Some of these themes, such as multiple-choice examinations or computer-assisted instruction seemed to have had their day, whereas other topics, such as the study of clinical clerkships, clinical reasoning, and scholarship in education were on their way up. Medical education research turned out to be a thoroughly international affair to which both US and European research centers contribute. The medical education literature shows an overwhelming emphasis on the preparation of medical students for professional practice. Moreover, the emphasis is very much on the individual student; most research seems to have been conducted with a psychological perspective in mind. It is argued that medical education research would profit from broadening its scope, including sociological, economical, ecological, and system perspectives. These perspectives might bring answers to new questions relevant to the quality of medical education. It is suggested that medical education is in need of moving beyond the conventional effectiveness-driven research approach to a more theory- and discovery-driven approach.

Future Change of Western North Pacific Typhoons: Projections by a 20-km-Mesh Global Atmospheric Model*

Abstract Projected future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B emission scenario were investigated using a 20-km-mesh, very-high-resolution Meteorological Research Institute (MRI)–Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) atmospheric general circulation model. The present-day (1979–2003) simulation yielded reasonably realistic climatology and interannual variability for TC genesis frequency and tracks. The future (2075–99) projection indicates (i) a significant reduction (by about 23%) in both TC genesis number and frequency of occurrence primarily during the late part of the year (September–December), (ii) an eastward shift in the positions of the two prevailing northward-recurving TC tracks during the peak TC season (July–October), and (iii) a significant reduction (by 44%) in TC frequency approaching coastal regions of Southeast Asia. The changes in occurrence frequency are due in part to changes in large-scale steering flows, but they are due mainly to changes in the locations of TC genesis; fewer TCs will form in the western portion of the WNP (west of 145°E), whereas more storms will form in the southeastern quadrant of the WNP (10°–20°N, 145°–160°E). Analysis of the genesis potential index reveals that the reduced TC genesis in the western WNP is due mainly to in situ weakening of large-scale ascent and decreasing midtropospheric relative humidity, which are associated with the enhanced descent of the tropical overturning circulation. The analysis also indicates that enhanced TC genesis in the southeastern WNP is due to increased low-level cyclonic vorticity and reduced vertical wind shear. These changes appear to be critically dependent on the spatial pattern of future sea surface temperature; therefore, it is necessary to conduct ensemble projections with a range of SST spatial patterns to understand the degree and distribution of uncertainty in future projections.

Constraining uncertainty in regional hydrologic impacts of climate change: Nonstationarity in downscaling

Regional impacts of climate change remain subject to large uncertainties accumulating from various sources, including those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios, and downscaling methods. Objective constraints to reduce the uncertainty in regional predictions have proven elusive. In most studies to date the nature of the downscaling relationship (DSR) used for such regional predictions has been assumed to remain unchanged in a future climate. However, studies have shown that climate change may manifest in terms of changes in frequencies of occurrence of the leading modes of variability, and hence, stationarity of DSRs is not really a valid assumption in regional climate impact assessment. This work presents an uncertainty modeling framework where, in addition to GCM and scenario uncertainty, uncertainty in the nature of the DSR is explored by linking downscaling with changes in frequencies of such modes of natural variability. Future projections of the regional hydrologic variable obtained by training a conditional random field (CRF) model on each natural cluster are combined using the weighted Dempster‐Shafer (D‐S) theory of evidence combination. Each projection is weighted with the future projected frequency of occurrence of that cluster (“cluster linking”) and scaled by the GCM performance with respect to the associated cluster for the present period (“frequency scaling”). The D‐S theory was chosen for its ability to express beliefs in some hypotheses, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The methodology is tested for predicting monsoon streamflow of the Mahanadi River at Hirakud Reservoir in Orissa, India. The results show an increasing probability of extreme, severe, and moderate droughts due to climate change. Significantly improved agreement between GCM predictions owing to cluster linking and frequency scaling is seen, suggesting that by linking regional impacts to natural regime frequencies, uncertainty in regional predictions can be realistically quantified. Additionally, by using a measure of GCM performance in simulating natural regimes, this uncertainty can be effectively constrained.

Changes in Frequency of Occurrence of Yearly Precipitation Anomalies in the Lublin Region in the Second Half of the 20th Century

Abstract The aim of this paper is to characterise changes in frequency of occurrence of anomalous yearly sums of atmospheric precipitation in the Lublin region in the period 1951-2000. In the second half of the 20th century negative precipitation anomaly occurred in a larger number of stations than the positive anomaly. Particularly strong anomalies were observed in two decades (1951-1960 and 1981-1990). However, during two following decades (1961-1970 and 1971-1980) the positive anomaly occurred in more stations.