Changes In Consumer Expenditure Research Articles

Evaluation of the Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Consumer Spending in Turkey by Structural Break Analysis

The purpose of this study is to investigate and evaluate the impact of the global Covid-19 crisis on consumer spending tendencies in Turkey. The data of the study, which are weekly data, consists of the "Debit Card and Credit Card Expenditure" amounts of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) for the period 6/3/2015–5/8/2022. Changes in consumer expenditures during the Covid-19 pandemic process were examined with the help of structural break tests. The main contribution of this article subsists in an empirical study to examine structural breaks in Turkey using personal debit and credit card disaggregated total expenditure data during the Covid-19 period. According to the research findings; the change observed at the beginning of the Covid-19 period in card expenditures is less than the change observed at the end of the period. With the end of the pandemic, an upward breakout was observed in most of the expenditure items.

Weighting bias and inflation in the time of COVID-19: evidence from Swiss transaction data

Sharp changes in consumer expenditure may bias inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using public data from debit card transactions, I quantify these changes in consumer spending, update CPI basket weights and construct an alternative price index to measure the effect of the COVID-induced weighting bias on the Swiss consumer price index. I find that inflation was higher during the lock-down than suggested by CPI inflation. The annual inflation rate of the COVID price index was −0.4% by April 2020, compared to −1.1% of the equivalent CPI. Persistent “low-touch” consumer behavior can further lead to inflation being underestimated by more than a quarter of a percentage point until the end of 2020.

Measurement of the Cost-of-Living Index in the Easi Model: Evidence from the Japanese Expenditure Data

In this study, I measure the change in the cost-of-living index in Japan over approximately 20 years using newly developed demand system model. I find that the cost-of-living index, itself, was shifted upward by price changes, despite the existence of a protracted deflation in Japan. This implies an increase in consumer surplus along with changes in consumer expenditures, prices, and demographics. Further, I find that the substitution effect in the cost-of-living index is so large that the increase in consumer surplus depends on it. That is, consumers substitute greatly for crossprice goods in the face of price changes.

Beyond Engel's law - A cross-country analysis

Engel's law is known to be extraordinarily consistent across time and space. To substantiate the distinction between necessities and luxuries, already Ernst Engel (1895) approached a behaviorally founded comprehensive assessment of structural changes in consumer expenditures. To build upon Engel's legacy and to complement the scarce empirical literature, a behavioral approach is applied. It is conjectured that differences in satiation patterns of universally-shared needs translate, on the aggregate level, into different shapes of Engel curves and thus also into different income elasticities of demand. Utilizing nonparametric regression techniques, it is explored whether and which expenditure categories change systematically with rising income. In line with the theoretical expectations, a number of empirical regularities in consumer expenditure patterns can be identified that go well beyond Engel's law.

고령친화식품산업의 성장과 규모 전망 -건강기능식품과 특수용도식품을 중심으로-

본 연구에서는 향후 고령친화식품의 중심적인 상품군이 될 건강기능식품과 특수용도식품의 시장규모에 대한 예측을 시도하였다. 건강기능식품과 특수용도식품 중 고령친화와 관련된 시장의 범위를 설정하고 현황에 대해서 분석한 후 향후 전망에 대해서 예측하였는데, 경제성장과 민간소비지출의 변화 그리고 이에 따른 노령인구의 경제력 변화, 의료보험 및 연금저축의 변화 등을 반영하였다. 한편 관련기업들을 대상으로 한 설문조사 결과를 활용하는 한편, 노인인구의 변화 및 주요 만성질환의 발병률을 분석하여 예측에 반영하였다. 결과를 보면 2010년부터 2025년까지 건강기능식품과 특수용도식품 중 고령친화와 관련된 부문의 연평균 성장률은 최소 4.54%에서 최대 8.32%로 예측되었으며, 시장규모 예측치는 모형과 예측방식에 따라 2025년에 최소 7,073억원에서 최대 10,976억원으로 나타났다. 향후 고령친화제품의 수요는 고령인구의 증가와 보험급여 확대 등으로 크게 성장할 것으로 예상되는 반면에, 기업들은 수요의 변화를 관망하고 있는 상황으로 판단된다. 따라서 이는 자칫 수요에 비하여 부족한 공급 문제를 야기시킬 수 있다. 따라서 정부의 R&D에 대한 적극적인 지원, 고령친화식품에 대한 표준화 및 인증제 실시, 관련산업의 DB구축 등이 필요한 상황이다. The purpose of this study is to predict the economic size of foods-for-elderly market, which will be valuable information for establishing related policy and backup system. After setting the scope of related industry, detailed information for current market situation was investigated and a systematic forecast for market changes in the future was performed. Economic growth, changes in consumer expenditure and economic status of the elderly, current subscription of medical insurance and saving for pension were reflected. In addition, a survey toward related firms was completed and changes in aged population and incidence of chronic disease in the elderly were taken into account. Results show that the annual growth rate of the market was predicted to be the minimum 4.54% through the maximum 8.32% from 2010 to 2025 and its market size was forecasted to be the minimum 7,073 ten million won through the maximum 10,976 ten million won. It is expected that the market of foods-for-elderly will grow rapidly with development of foods technology and fast increase of aged population. Especially, growth of health functional foods and foods for special dietary uses for elderly will be distinguished. However, it seems that related firms are on the hedge, watching current trend of the related industry. This may results in insufficient supply against the demand. Therefore, policy for foods-for-elderly should be introduced and systematically administered, including R&D support, standardization and authentication for foods-for-elderly, construction of related database system.

Beyond Engel’s Law - Pursuing an Engelian Approach to Welfare: A Cross Country Analysis

Engel’s law is known to be extraordinarily consistent across time and space. Accordingly, it has been widely used to determine poverty. However, also among the poorest, a certain amount of non food spending is necessary. To substantiate the distinction between necessities and luxuries, already Ernst Engel (1895) approached a behaviorally founded comprehensive assessment of structural changes in consumer expenditures. To build upon Engel’s legacy and to complement the scare empirical literature, a behavioral approach is applied. It is conjectured that differences in satiation patterns of universally shared needs translate, on the aggregate level, into different shapes of Engel curves and thus also into different income elasticities of demand. Utilizing a nonparametric regression technique, it is explored whether and which expenditure categories change systematically with rising income. In line with the theoretical expectations, a number of empirical regularities in consumer expenditure patterns can be identified that go well beyond Engel’s law.

Long-term effects of eliminating illegal logging on the world forest industries, trade, and inventory

We assessed the impact on the world forest sector of a progressive elimination of illegal logging. The analysis compared predictions from 2007 to 2020, with and without a gradual reduction of illegally logged industrial roundwood from 2007 to 2011. A large part of the curtailment of timber supply due to the stoppage of illegal logging would be compensated by increased legal production incited by higher prices. As a result, without illegal logging the world annual production of industrial roundwood would decrease by no more than 1%, even though it would decrease by up to 8% in developing countries. World prices would rise by 1.5 to 3.5% for industrial roundwood and by 0.5 to 2% for processed products, depending on the assumption on illegal logging rates. World consumer expenditures for wood products and producer revenues would rise by 1 to 2% without illegal logging. World value added in forest industries would remain the same. However, the changes in consumer expenditures would be more than double the changes in producer revenues in countries dependent on illegally logged timber of domestic or foreign origin such as Indonesia and China. Symmetrically, changes in producer revenues would be almost twice the changes in consumer expenditures in countries with little illegal logging and efficient industries, such as Canada, Germany and the United States. Value added in forest industries would decrease most in countries with heavy illegal logging (12% in Indonesia and up to 9% in Brazil), and it would increase most in Germany, Canada (4%), and the United States (2%). Without illegal logging, the world forest inventory would increase slightly, as the increase in developing countries would more than compensate the decrease in developed countries.

Orderly Marketing in Agriculture Revisited

This paper presents a model of economic behavior that explicates the phenomenon known as “orderly marketing,” which was a main objective of the Marketing Orders agricultural program introduced early in the New Deal. Recent analyses of marketing orders start with an implicit assumption that there is no market failure—thus, that price regulation can cause only deviations from the first-best market solution. However, historical evidence suggests that disorderly marketing might refer to a kind of market imperfection. In the model presented here, a monopsonist processor sets a price to be paid, and an aggregate quantity to be purchased. In some states of the world, some farmers are excluded from the market. In other words, nonprice rationing can occur, and changes in consumer expenditure for the final product are absorbed by the processor rather than passed along to the farmer. The classified price and pooling provisions of federal orders can lead to a Pareto improvement in welfare.

Modelling rental change across key retail investment markets in Britain

Models of the commercial property market have become increasingly sophisticated in recent years. However, the retail sector and, more specifically, analysis of retail markets at the local level, have been comparatively neglected. This paper makes inroads into this gap in property research. Retail rental change at the local level is explored, focusing on consumer expenditure as the key determinant of change. The appropriateness of proxy variables is investigated and the mechanisms of rental change are examined. This highlights issues and difficulties unique to local level analysis. Following this, the relationship between rental change and underlying changes in consumer expenditure is investigated. The stability of a panel model of rental change is examined, with differences in market functioning identified across diverse groups of key local retail investment markets. These differences highlight the re‐emergence of northern markets during both the economic decline and recovery phases of the last decade of the 20th century. Rental levels in larger and smaller markets are also seen to respond to changes in consumer expenditure to significantly different degrees, in periods of both decline and recovery.

Assessment and management of risks arising from exposure to cadmium in fertilisers — II

A preliminary, illustrative human health risk assessment of exposure to cadmium in phosphate fertilisers was performed using typical UK data and a protocol previously developed for application by individual Member States in the European Union. The risk assessment indicated that the for the most pessimistic population exposures characterised by both extreme (97th percentile) cereal and potato consumption and high susceptibility to cadmium uptake, the estimated dose was under the WHO Provisional Tolerable Weekly Intake (PTWI) for fertiliser cadmium concentrations ranging from 15 to 100 mg Cd/kg P 2O 5 applied over 100 years. However, the low margin of safety for high risk groups and the uncertainties inherent in the overall risk assessment suggested that a prudent risk management strategy would involve maintenance of low levels of cadmium in fertilisers and/or conditions that permitted low accumulation of cadmium in soils. On this basis, two main risk reduction measures were developed and assessed: (a) imposition of limits on cadmium concentration in fertilisers; and (b) imposition of charges on levels of cadmium in phosphate fertilisers. An assessment of the economic impact of these risk reduction measures indicated that, at all price elasticities, the most significant impact in terms of changes in demand and changes in consumer expenditure on phosphate fertilisers will be seen with cadmium charges where no thresholds are defined. The impact on the consumer (i.e. farmer) will be an increase in spending of approximately US $4000 per year, which is considered significant, accompanied by a decrease in demand above 20%. If a threshold is set at 60 mg Cd/kg P 2O 5, the impact is significantly reduced, but stays relatively high compared to the other options. The analysis also indicates that the use of low-cadmium rock is the low cost option. At a likely rock price increase of approximately 5% and assuming a likely price elasticity of −0.2, the yearly costs to farmers will be approximately US $82 which is considered a minimal impact. In the worst case scenario (elasticity of −0.6 and a 10% increase in rock prices), the increase in spending by farmers will be of 3.9% or US $221 which is also considered to represent a minimal impact. At similar price elasticities, the use of decadmation technologies is predicted to be more costly than the use of low-cadmium rock but this option can still be considered as having a minimal impact on the consumer (increase in expenditure of 1.9–13.3% or US $106–748).

Free Trade and Wage Inequality in an Advanced Economy

This paper develops a formal model for examining the impact of free trade on the wage inequality in the Northern economy and the sensitivity of wage inequality indices to changes in causal factors within a general equilibrium setting. The model has three types of labor: sector-specific high-skilled, mobile unskilled and immobile unskilled labor. Thus, three types of wage inequality indices are derived. Selected comparative statics for changes in consumer expenditure shares, biased technological changes, changes in relative endowments are provided.

Monetary Estimates of the Underground Economy: A Critical Evaluation

Recent estimates of the size of the underground economy in Canada run from roughly 3 to 22 percent of GDP. This study finds that a more critical scrutiny of the monetary techniques used can narrow the range of uncertainty. Various monetary methodologies have been applied to Canada, most recently by Mirus, Smith and Karoleff (1994). The most plausible one from the viewpoint of economic theory is Tanzi's (1983) variant of the currency-ratio approach, which predicts currency demand based on tax rates. It is used in the present study. Granger causality testing for the one-year lagged effect of the change in tax rates on growth in currency implies that the probability of the tax rate being non-causal is 0.0000. Tanzi's methodology, which has been followed by other Canadian researchers, expresses currency as a fraction of some other monetary variable. In fact, M2 is an inappropriate scale variable, as currency is used for transactions purposes, whereas M2 contains substantial amounts that represent long-term wealth accumulation. A better alternative, first used for Canada by Spiro (1993), is consumer expenditure. Advances in financial technology are unlikely to be correlated with changes in consumer expenditure, implying that the estimated coefficient on consumer expenditure would be more likely to be unbiased. U.S. studies, such as Dotsey (1988), have also found that consumer expenditure or retail sales work better as the scale variable than personal income or total GDP.

The Tax Man Cometh: Consumer Spending and Tax Payments

Do high tax payments lower consumer spending? Traditional models view consumer spending as a function of disposable income. Any change in tax payments therefore directly affects disposable personal income, resulting in changes in consumer expenditures.

Potential effects on rural economies of conversion to sustainable farming systems

AbstractConversions from conventional to sustainable farming systems could affect local rural economies either positively or negatively, by several means: changes in income of agricultural households; backward linkages to input supply firms; forward linkages to transportation, processing, and marketing firms; and changes in consumer expenditures by agricultural and other households. We estimated these effects for five local rural economies in South Dakota, representing different agroclimatic and population settlement patterns. Whole-farm economic models of case study conventional and sustainable farms in each area were used to estimate differences in input purchase and marketing patterns. We found declines in on-farm personal income (returns to farm labor and management) in four of the five case comparisons under a conversion to sustainable farming systems if organic price premiums are ignored; we found increases in three of five cases if applicable organic premiums are included. In all five study areas, total off-farm personal income drops in the portions of local economies connected to farming through backward linkages. It also drops in four of the five study areas in the portions of local economies connected through forward linkages if organic premiums are ignored (all five if organic premiums are included). However, net forward linkage effects are usually much smaller than net backward linkage effects, and on-farm personal income effects are substantially greater than either backward or forward off-farm linkage effects in most cases. The total (on-and off-farm) personal income effect of converting to sustainable systems is positive in only one area without organic premiums, and in one additional area with premiums. The ratio of total to on-farm personal income effects within local economies, considering only first round effects on backward- and forward-linked firms, averages 1.2 without organic premiums, or 0.6 with them. Taking account of more complete multiplier effects, which also consider changes in consumer expenditures and changes in expenditures for supplies by backward- and forward-linked firms, the average is 1.8 without organic premiums, or 0.8 with them. With more time for changes in sustainable production techniques and in the structure of farms and the rural economy, the overall economic effects of conversions to sustainable farming are likely to be more positive than our estimates.