Changes In Climatic Suitability Research Articles

Assessing Changes in Climatic Suitability for Sesame Cultivation in China (1978–2019) Based on Fuzzy Mathematics

Sesame is one of the important oil seed crops grown for the high-quality oil. Its growth, development, and yield are significantly affected by the changing climate conditions. Evaluating the sesame climatic suitability is crucial to optimize sesame cultivation patterns and planting distribution, and to aid strategic decision making for future agricultural adaptation. Based on agricultural climatic suitability theory and the fuzzy mathematics method, in this study, we established the temperature, precipitation, sunshine, and comprehensive suitability model. Then, we assessed the spatial distribution and chronological changes in climatic suitability under two periods, 1978–1998 (earlier 21 years) and 1999–2019 (latter 21 years). The results showed that compared with the meteorological data in the earlier 21 years, the mean temperature during the sesame-growing season in the latter 21 years increased from 24.48 °C to 25.05 °C, and the cumulative precipitation increased from 744.38 mm to 754.81 mm; however, the sunshine hours decreased from 6.05 h to 5.55 h. Temperature, precipitation, sunshine, and comprehensive suitability during the sesame-growing season in the main sesame-producing areas of China all had a downward trend. The distribution of temperature and comprehensive suitability in the north is higher than that in the south, while the precipitation and sunshine suitability had an uneven distribution. The area of high-temperature suitability and high-precipitation suitability increased from 43.45 × 106 ha to 46.34 × 106 ha and from 3.20 × 106 ha to 7.97 × 106 ha, respectively, whereas the area of high-sunshine suitability decreased from 4.04 × 106 ha to 2.09 × 106 ha. The climate change was more beneficial to sesame cultivation in northeast Anhui where the area of high climatic suitability clearly expanded, and in eastern Jiangxi where the area of the general climatic suitability increased. In contrast, it is worth noting that the area of high climatic suitability in northern Henan decreased and the area of low climatic suitability in Hubei increased. Our results have important implications for improving agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change.

The role of genotypic and climatic variation at the range edge: A case study in winegrapes.

Changes in habitat suitability due to climate change are causing range shifts, with new habitat potentially available at cold range edges. We must predict these range shifts, but forecasters have limited knowledge of how genetic differences in plant physiological tolerances influence range shifts. Here, we focus on a major determinant of species ranges-physiological tolerance to extreme cold-to ask how warming over recent decades and genetic variation shape expansion across complex landscapes. We examined how genotypes vary in maximum cold tolerance from 9 years of cold hardiness data across 18 genotypes from 13 sites, using winegrapes (Vitis vinifera subsp. vinifera) as a case study. Combining a Bayesian hierarchical dose-response model with gridded climate data, we then project changes in climatic suitability near winegrapes' current cold range-edge between 1949 and 2016. Plants increased maximum cold hardiness non-linearly with decreasing air temperature (maximum cold hardiness: -23.6°C), but with substantial (by 2°C) variation across genotypes. Our results suggest, since the 1980s, decreasing freeze injury risk has made conditions more favorable for all genotypes at the cold range-edge, but conditions remained more favorable for more cold hardy genotypes and in warmer areas. There was substantial spatial variation in habitat suitability, with the majority of suitably warm habitat located in a narrow north-south oriented strip. We highlight the importance of genotypic differences in physiological tolerances when assessing range shift potential with climate change. Habitat improvements were unevenly distributed over the spatially complex landscape, though, emphasizing the importance of dispersal in range expansion.

Climate change threatens the future viability of translocated populations

AbstractAimThe dynamic nature of climate change diminishes the effectiveness of static approaches to nature conservation. Areas that were once suitable for species may no longer be suitable, and areas that are suitable now, may be unsuitable in the future. Despite increasing global awareness of the threats posed by climate change, it remains poorly accounted for in conservation programmes, such as translocation. In this study, we project changes in climate suitability for populations of ectothermic species that have been successfully established through translocation efforts.LocationBiogeographical realms: Australasia, Holarctic, Palearctic and Nearctic.MethodsWe use species distribution models (SDMs) to project changes in macroclimatic suitability across 65 translocation recipient sites involving 38 ectothermic species. We consider optimistic (SSP126) and pessimistic (SSP370) scenarios of climate change for five general circulation models spanning three time horizons from 2021–2040 up to 2061–2080.ResultsOur models predict that at least 74% of recipient sites are projected to decline in climate suitability, regardless of the SSP scenario or time horizon. While recipient site suitability, scaled from 0 to 1 (low–high), was typically very high (>0.75, 39% of sites) under baseline climate conditions (1960–2010), models project a marked shift towards low suitability climates (<0.25, 40% of sites) by the middle of the century (2041–2060) onwards under the more pessimistic scenario. Relative to species' ranges, recipient sites located closer to the equator are projected to experience the most significant declines in suitability.Main ConclusionsOur results call for greater consideration of spatiotemporal factors during the recipient site selection process, so that translocated populations are more strategically placed for long‐term persistence under climate change.

Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability

Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species’ ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species’ traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species’ range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species’ ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.

Predicting potential range shifts using climatic time series and niche models: A Neotropical montane shrew's case

Ecological niche models (ENMs) can forecast species' potential range shifts by transferring a model to a future climatic scenario. However, this approximation does not identify whether range shifts have occurred in species' distributional limits in the last several decades. Given ongoing anthropogenic climate change, changes in distributional limits are expected to occur (poleward and upslope for several montane species). Here, I use a climatic time series to predict potential changes in distributional limits in response to climate change over the last four decades, using the Mexican small-eared shrew (Cryptotis mexicanus), a montane cloud-forest species, as an example. I transferred the ENM (tuned to optimize complexity) to a series of thirty-year bioclimatic periods between 1979 and 2019 created with monthly precipitation and temperature data. I detected trends in suitability and bioclimatic variables using a Mann-Kendall test and identified which variables could be driving the suitability changes in distributional limits. The detected extent and direction of suitability trends do not suggest the uniform pole-ward or upslope shifts expected under warming conditions. Comparisons between suitability and variable trends suggest that precipitation, not temperature, plays a stronger role in explaining changes in climatic suitability for C. mexicanus. Where precipitation decreased, there was suitability loss, while in areas where precipitation increased, suitability gain was observed. These analyses illustrate how incorporating time-series climatic data into ENMs can aid in understanding if species are already responding to changes in climate. Here, the potential response of C. mexicanus to climate change varies across its distribution and therefore the species' range shifts may not necessarily follow expected general patterns. These findings should be verified with field data. More generally, using the valuable climatic information of the last several decades should be incorporated into studies that determine potential range shifts under recent or future climatic conditions.

Decoupling of species and plant communities of the U.S. Southwest: A CCSM4 climate scenario example

AbstractClimate change is predicted to alter the current climate suitability under which plant species and communities occur. Predictions of change have focused on individual species or entire communities, but theory indicates plants will not respond uniformly to climate change within or between communities. We developed models of the current climate suitability (the baseline) of 66 plant species characteristic of 29 plant communities of the arid Southwest, made predictions of climate suitability for the species under two climate change scenarios for the years 2041–2060 (Community Climate System Model version 1.4 [CCSM4] global climate model [GCM], Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios), and calculated changes in suitability between the future scenarios and baseline for each species. Climate change exposure for the entire community was then evaluated as the composite change of the predicted future climate suitability of the communities' characteristic species. Loss of 25% or more of favorable climate suitability was predicted for 39 (RCP4.5) and 51 (RCP8.5) species within their communities. The proportion of the study area with all species in a community having unfavorable suitability was 17.9% (RCP4.5) and 21.3% (RCP8.5) compared to 6.2% for baseline. We show that suitable climates for species within a plant community are not expected to be a single community‐wide trajectory, but rather changes in climate suitability will be unique to the species and not experienced uniformly across the extant communities. This decoupling of plant species within their traditional plant communities may lead to a cascade of unanticipated ecological responses and unprecedented challenges to resource management. Our study results can inform hypotheses of the future successional track of plant communities, characteristic species, and the decisions resource managers must make for management.

Threatened Fabaceae taxa in coastal East Africa: Current and future modelled distributions and conservation priorities

• Global climate change causes an increasing threat to coastal species,with the potential extinction of a lot of legume species. • We modelled the distribution of eleven legume taxa at local scales using environmental variables. • The selected legume taxa ecological niches are influenced mainly by mean diurnal range temperature, precipitation of the coldest quarter, and elevation. • Irrespective of the climate change scenario, B. mombassae, C. lukei , and S. speciosa were observed to be most vulnerable to climate change. Predicting the responses of threatened tropical plant species to global climate change has been considered to be critical for assessing changes in species distribution and evaluating their conservation status. In reflecting on the vast species richness, East Africa has long been recognised as a hotspot of biodiversity, but very little is known about the vulnerability of the endemic plant diversity to anthropogenic introduced climate changes. This study evaluated the potential impacts of global climate change on plant species ranges in coastal East Africa by predicting the extent and direction of projected changes in climatic suitability. Specifically, we employed species distribution modelling in MaxEnt to identify species experiencing the highest threat of range declines. To do so, we evaluated climatic suitability for eleven legume species using one global climate model and two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios for present and future climates. The findings indicated that the mean AUC and TSS values of the focal taxa ranged from 0.818 to 0.992 and from 0.780 to 0.851, respectively, indicating that the MaxEnt model's prediction accuracy was good or exceptional. Occupancy and abundance of nine species were positively associated with low elevations, high relative humidity, and warmer temperatures in the coastal regions. Regardless of species, precipitation of the warmest quarter and mean temperature of the wettest quarter exhibited a minor impact on the distribution. Furthermore, the probable distribution regions of these species ranged from 77,270 km 2 to 282,297 km 2 . To our knowledge, this study is the first to appraise the distribution of threatened species within Fabaceae in coastal East Africa. The current findings provide a critical assessment framework for the conservation and management of Fabaceae in the region.

Spatial and interdecadal differences in climatic suitability for winter wheat in China from 1985 to 2014.

The evident climate jump after 2000 in China may have greatly influenced the production of winter wheat, which is one of the nation's major grain crops. To evaluate the impacts of climate change on winter wheat production and identify the climatic factors primarily responsible, we used daily meteorological data from 2244 stations and integrated indicators to examine the decadal changes in the potential plantable zone (PPZ), growth periods, and climatic suitability for winter wheat in China from 1985 to 1999 and from 2000 to 2014. The results showed the following: (1) The PPZ has decreased by approximately 9%, and the main reason may be the increased frequency of extreme cold events in northern China from 2000 to 2014. (2) In most of the PPZ, the suitable sowing date has been delayed, the potential maturity date has advanced, and total days during the potential growing season have significantly decreased because of the increasing temperature. (3) The suitable area and optimal area of winter wheat have significantly decreased by 9% and 13%, respectively. The changes in climatic suitability are affected by both temperature and radiation in the north, whereas the impact is more from precipitation in the south. The climate may be changing in a direction unsuitable for winter wheat. As global warming and climate extremes intensify in the future, winter wheat production may become more challenging, and adequate measures should be adopted to guarantee reliable and high yields.

Changes in the climate suitability and growth rates of trees in eastern North America

According to the ‘fitness‐suitability' hypothesis, ongoing changes in climate are expected to affect habitat suitability and hence species' fitness. In trees, differences in fitness may manifest as changes in growth rates, which will alter carbon uptake. Using tree‐ring data, we calculated > 1.5 million annual stem growth rate estimates (standardized for tree size) for 15 677 trees representing 37 species from 558 populations throughout eastern North America. We used collections data and species distribution models to estimate each population's climatic suitability from 1900 to 2010. We then assessed the relationships between growth, suitability and time using linear mixed‐effects models. We found that stem growth rates decreased significantly through time independent of changes in climate suitability and that relationships between growth rates and climate suitability were highly variable across species. Contrary to expectations, we found that growth rates were negatively correlated with species' climate suitability, a relationship that was consistent over time for gymnosperms and became more negative through time for angiosperms. These results may suggest that stem growth rates are not a good proxy for fitness and/or that unidentified factors may be slowing tree growth and outweighing any potential benefits of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Regardless of the cause, this finding indicates that we should not count on the increased growth of eastern North American trees to help offset anthropogenic carbon emissions.

Glacial vicariance and oceanic circulation shape population structure of the coastal legume Derris trifoliata in the Indo-West Pacific.

The phylogeography of coastal plant species is shaped by contemporary and historical biogeographic processes. In this study, we aim to decipher the phylogeography of Derris trifoliata, a woody legume of relatively recent origin and wide distribution, in coastal areas in the Indo-West Pacific (IWP) region. Genetic diversity and population structure were assessed by analyzing six nuclear and three chloroplast DNA sequences from 30 populations across the species' range. Phylogeography was inferred by estimating gene flow, divergence time, historical population size changes, and historical habitat suitability using paleoclimatic niche modeling. High genetic diversity was observed at the species level. The populations of three oceanic regions included in this study (i.e., Indian Ocean, South China Sea, and Pacific Ocean) formed distinct clades and likely diverged during the late Pleistocene. Potential barriers to gene flow were identified, including the Sunda and Sahul shelves, geographic distance, and current patterns of oceanic circulation. Analysis of changes in population size supported the bottleneck model, which was strengthened by estimates of habitat suitability across paleoclimatic conditions. The once widespread distribution of D. trifoliata was fragmented by changes in climatic suitability and biogeographic barriers that arose following sea-level changes during the Pleistocene. In addition, contemporary patterns of oceanic circulation and geographic distance between populations appear to maintain genetic differentiation across its distribution in the IWP.

Changes in climate suitability for oil-tea (C. oleifera Abel) production in China under historical and future climate conditions

Defining climate suitability zones accurately can provide supporting information for locating regions for crops with a long period of return on investment such as oil-tea (C. oleifera). The objective of this study was to evaluate changes in suitability for a typical oil-tea species (Abel) under climate change conditions in China. Based on correlation analysis, annual mean temperature, mean temperature in July, annual rainfall, and annual sunshine hours were identified as the factors impacting production suitability. A modified bioclimatic method was verified using extensively collected crop occurrence data. Changes in climate suitability under two different historical periods (1961–1990, 1991–2020) and under two future climate change periods (2021–2050, 2051–2100) using 28 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios were then investigated. Results showed that: (1) The modified method well described the main climatic features of the actual production regions; 96.3% of the dominant production regions and 92.4% of the main production regions were located in the regions classified as most suitable and suitable; (2) Historical climate change has caused the northern and southern production boundaries to move northward by 130 and 70 km, respectively, and the east-central part of the study region has degraded to the suitable classification; (3) Under RCP 4.5, the regional pattern of suitability did not change much, while under RCP 8.5, the area of the most suitable region was reduced by up to 66%; (4) Suitability varied greatly between different GCMs, especially under RCP 8.5. Our results showed that historical climate change had negative impacts in some of the most suitable regions, and that future climate change will have negative impacts on more regions. To maintain future healthy development of production, significant efforts should be devoted to breeding heat and drought-resistant varieties and to improving management practices.

Assessing Pathways of Climate Change Effects in SpaDES: An Application to Boreal Landbirds of Northwest Territories Canada

Distributions of landbirds in Canadian northern forests are expected to be affected by climate change, but it remains unclear which pathways are responsible for projected climate effects. Determining whether climate change acts indirectly through changing fire regimes and/or vegetation dynamics, or directly through changes in climatic suitability may allow land managers to address negative trajectories via forest management. We used SpaDES, a novel toolkit built in R that facilitates the implementation of simulation models from different areas of knowledge to develop a simulation experiment for a study area comprising 50 million ha in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Our factorial experiment was designed to contrast climate effects pathways on 64 landbird species using climate-sensitive and non-climate sensitive models for tree growth and mortality, wildfire, and landbirds. Climate-change effects were predicted to increase suitable habitat for 73% of species, resulting in average net gain of 7.49 million ha across species. We observed higher species turnover in the northeastern, south-central (species loss), and western regions (species gain). Importantly, we found that most of the predicted differences in net area of occupancy across models were attributed to direct climate effects rather than simulated vegetation change, despite a similar relative importance of vegetation and climate variables in landbird models. Even with close to a doubling of annual area burned by 2100, and a 600 kg/ha increase in aboveground tree biomass predicted in this region, differences in landbird net occupancy across models attributed to climate-driven forest growth were very small, likely resulting from differences in the pace of vegetation and climate changes, or vegetation lags. The effect of vegetation lags (i.e., differences from climatic equilibrium) varied across species, resulting in a wide range of changes in landbird distribution, and consequently predicted occupancy, due to climate effects. These findings suggest that hybrid approaches using statistical models and landscape simulation tools could improve wildlife forecasts when future uncoupling of vegetation and climate is anticipated. This study lays some of the methodological groundwork for ecological adaptive management using the new platform SpaDES, which allows for iterative forecasting, mixing of modeling paradigms, and tightening connections between data, parameterization, and simulation.

Assessing changes in climate suitability and yields of maize and sorghum crops over Kenya in the twenty-first century

Assessing changes in climate suitability and yields of maize and sorghum crops over Kenya in the twenty-first century

Invasion status and impacts of parthenium weed (Parthenium hysterophorus) in West-Central region of Bhutan

Parthenium weed (Parthenium hysterophorus L.) is an invasive alien plant species that is spreading rapidly all over the world. With globalization and climate change, it will continue to spread, posing threats to agriculture, biodiversity and the environment. To determine its invasion and impacts in Bhutan, an investigation was undertaken in West-Central Bhutan using a questionnaire survey, complemented by MaxEnt modelling. Most farmers (19–30%) recall having seen parthenium for the last 11–15 years, or more. Infestations of parthenium differed significantly (P < 0.05) across three districts for dryland, orchards, fallow land and pastures, but not in rice fields and on roadsides. The most intensely invaded land types were fallow land, pastures, and roadsides, with farmers perceiving it as ‘somewhat common’(score ~ 3) and ‘common’ (score ~ 4) weed. Farmers’ perceptions of the invasiveness of parthenium weed were high at 77% (Wangdue), 80% (Punakha), and 88% (Tsirang), considering it as at least ‘somewhat invasive’, or higher. Only 13–25% of respondents scored the weed as ‘highly invasive’. Parthenium invasion significantly (P < 0.01 to 0.001) escalated the cost of production, reduced fodder quality, supressed native species and caused allergies to the locals in the study districts. Further, MaxEnt modelling of parthenium distribution was undertaken, using the parthenium presence-only data and bioclimatic variables, under 2 CO2 emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), i.e. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and 8.5). The projections showed discernible spatial changes in climate suitability over 2070, mostly in the mid- and high-altitude zones, indicating aggressive incursion into Bhutan’s important agro-ecological landscapes. The findings, highlight the urgent need to initiate parthenium management strategies for food production and natural resources.

Changing Climate Suitability for Dominant Eucalyptus Species May Affect Future Fuel Loads and Flammability in Tasmania

Fire management is becoming increasingly relevant in our changing climate as fire frequency and intensity increases both on a global scale and locally in Tasmania. The distribution of fuel across the landscape has significant impacts on fire regimes, influencing connectivity and flammability of fuel load. Remote sensing techniques are often used to assess current fuel loads, but projections of future fuel distributions are necessary for longer term planning of fire management. Eucalyptus species are an important, dominant component of many Tasmanian forests, influencing fuel load and flammability. We modelled the current and future climate suitability for two Eucalyptus species (E. delegatensis and E. obliqua), using a suite of species distribution models (SDMs) and global climate models (GCMs) for mid (2041–2060) and end of century (2061–2080) time periods. The implications these changes may have for the distribution of these important fuel species in the future are discussed. All GCMs projected notable changes in potential distribution, with both species contracting substantially in some areas and E. obliqua also exhibiting considerable expansions in the west of Tasmania. On average, suitability for E. delegatensis expanded by 5% ± 1.8% (1658 km2), contracted by 67% ± 22.7% (24,591 km2) and remained unchanged in 26% ± 7.8% (8783 km2) by the end of the century. For E. obliqua suitability expanded by a much greater 17% ± 6.3% (24,398 km2), contracted by slightly less at 55% ± 16.8% (81,098 km2) and remained unchanged in 45% ± 16.8% (63,474 km2) by the end of the century. These changes in climate suitability have the potential to cause changes in the composition and structure of Tasmania’s forests, impacting fuel loads. However, the two species exhibited different responses, reflecting their current distributions and suggesting that generalisations regarding species’ responses to changing climates are not appropriate, even where the species are closely related. These results suggest that future fuel loads and flammability at the landscape scale may change, requiring longitudinal, flexible and adaptive future fire management. Assessing the specific effects of distributional changes and the mechanisms driving different responses to climate change are highlighted as further research opportunities.

The differential genetic signatures related to climatic landscapes for jaguars and pumas on a continental scale

Modern and paleoclimate changes may have altered species dynamics by shifting species' niche suitability over space and time. We analyze whether the current genetic structure and isolation of the two large American felids, jaguar (Panthera onca) and puma (Puma concolor), are mediated by changes in climatic suitability and connection routes over modern and paleoclimatic landscapes. We estimate species distribution under 5 climatic landscapes (modern, Holocene, last maximum glaciations [LMG], average suitability, and climatic instability) and correlate them with individuals' genetic isolation through causal modeling on a resemblance matrix. Both species exhibit genetic isolation patterns correlated with LMG climatic suitability, suggesting that these areas may have worked as "allele refuges." However, the jaguar showed higher vulnerability to climate changes, responding to modern climatic suitability and connection routes, whereas the puma showed a continuous and gradual transition of genetic variation. Despite differential responsiveness to climate change, both species are subjected to the climatic effects on genetic configuration, which may make them susceptible to future climatic changes, since these are progressing faster and with higher intensity than changes in the paleoclimate. Thus, the effects of climatic changes should be considered in the design of conservation strategies to ensure evolutionary and demographic processes mediated by gene flow for both species.

Clearing up the Crystal Ball: Understanding Uncertainty in Future Climate Suitability Projections for Amphibians

Amphibian populations are threatened globally, and one of the hypotheses for these declines is climate change. Species distribution models are frequently used to predict changes in suitable habitat as a result of changing climates; however, these projections can be heavily influenced by choice of modeling approach. To evaluate global predictions for amphibians, we conducted a literature review of studies that utilize correlative species distribution models to project changes in climate suitability under various climate change scenarios. We paid particular attention to the use of model selection in choosing among candidate species distribution models (SDMs) so as to control for overparameterization of SDMs. In addition, we conducted a case study with three species of Slender Salamanders (Batrachoseps) to further investigate the impact of differences in modeling decisions on projected amphibian climate suitability. We found 83 studies (including the present case study) in which projections of future climate suitability were made for amphibian species. Of those studies, 36 included estimates of percent change in climate suitability and thus were included in our meta-analysis. These studies included projections for over 1000 species or species complexes, with the majority being Anurans (86%), and encompassed five continents with the most representation in South America, Europe, and North America. Across these studies, average projected change in climate suitability ranged from －70% to 167%, and these projected changes varied with dispersal assumptions representative concentration pathway (RCP) used, the projection year, and taxonomic order. Only three of the 36 studies reported the use of Akaike information criterion (AIC)-based model selection to choose a best-fit SDM. However, our case study demonstrated that predicted change in climate suitability varied whether the best-fit or default SDM was used for projections. Further, this result varied among species (ΔAIC = 0), suggesting that the impact of overparameterization differs across species. Our results illustrate that there is a pressing need to project climate suitability across more species and more geographic regions. In addition, we may need to revisit projections for previously investigated species to evaluate additional climate scenarios and whether overparameterization may have influenced projections. Our ability to accurately model future changes in climate suitability will be essential for successful conservation and management plans for amphibians.

Habitat availability explains variation in climate-driven range shifts across multiple taxonomic groups

Range shifting is vital for species persistence, but there is little consensus on why individual species vary so greatly in the rates at which their ranges have shifted in response to recent climate warming. Here, using 40 years of distribution data for 291 species from 13 invertebrate taxa in Britain, we show that interactions between habitat availability and exposure to climate change at the range margins explain up to half of the variation in rates of range shift. Habitat generalists expanded faster than more specialised species, but this intrinsic trait explains less of the variation in range shifts than habitat availability, which additionally depends on extrinsic factors that may be rare or widespread at the range margin. Similarly, while climate change likely underlies polewards expansions, we find that more of the between-species variation is explained by differences in habitat availability than by changes in climatic suitability. A model that includes both habitat and climate, and their statistical interaction, explains the most variation in range shifts. We conclude that climate-change vulnerability assessments should focus as much on future habitat availability as on climate sensitivity and exposure, with the expectation that habitat restoration and protection will substantially improve species’ abilities to respond to uncertain future climates.

Potential impact of climate change on whiteflies and implications for the spread of vectored viruses

Whiteflies (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) are important insect pests causing serious damage to plants and transmitting hundreds of plant viruses. Climate change is expected to influence life history and trophic interactions among plants, whiteflies and their natural enemies. Here, we review the potential impacts of climate change on whiteflies and the likely consequences for agricultural systems. This review concludes that while climatic stress tends to negatively affect life history traits, the effects differ with the tolerance of the whiteflies and the amount of stress experienced. Whiteflies also differ in their adaptability. Better adapted species will likely experience increased distribution and abundance provided their tolerance limits are not exceeded, while species with lower tolerance and adaptation limits will suffer reduced fitness, which will have overall effects on their distribution and abundance in space and time. The majority of methods used to control whiteflies will still be useful especially if complementary methods are combined for maximum efficacy. Parasitism and predation rates of whitefly natural enemies could increase with temperature within the optimum ranges of the natural enemies, although life history traits and population growth potential are generally maximised below 30 °C. Changes in climatic suitability modifying the distribution and abundance of whiteflies, and environmental suitability for plant viruses, will likely affect epidemics of viral diseases. Greater efforts are required to improve understanding of the complex effects of climate change on multi-species and multi-trophic interactions in the agro-ecological systems inhabited by whiteflies, and to use this new knowledge to develop robust and climate-smart management strategies.

How can climate change affect the potential distribution of common genet Genetta genetta (Linnaeus 1758) in Europe?

The common genet Genetta genetta is a carnivore of African origin introduced in Europe at least 13 centuries ago. Its distribution, located in the southwest of the continent, is chiefly constrained by climatic factors. With this premise, and taking into account the existing climate change projections, our goal was to assess possible changes in climatic suitability for common genet in Europe in the future. The maximum entropy statistical method was used to evaluate the potential effects of two greenhouse gas scenarios-low and high emissions-of an average ensemble of six different global circulation models. Projections showed that a large increase in climatically suitable habitat for common genet in continental Europe is likely in the next decades. In this way, the species range may expand within Europe to the east and north. The fact that the common genet may be favoured in a scenario of temperature increase is compatible with the origin of the species associated with hotter climates in Africa. However, despite these results, bioclimatic models do not represent the complete biotic and ecological niche of the species (e.g. competition, predation or dispersal ability), and a full understanding of potential future expansions should include factors that also determine the presence of the species at finer local scales. Bearing this in mind, we have to interpret our results as a first step towards the potential for species distribution change in the near future, but further work should incorporate environmental variability beyond climate in future projection assessments.