Changes In Circulation Patterns Research Articles

Arctic climate response to European radiative forcing: a deep learning study on circulation pattern changes

Abstract. Heterogeneous radiative forcing in mid-latitudes, such as that exerted by aerosols, has been found to affect the Arctic climate, though the mechanisms remain debated. In this study, we leverage deep learning (DL) techniques to explore the complex response of the Arctic climate system to local radiative forcing over Europe. We conducted sensitivity experiments using the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2) coupled with atmosphere–ocean–land-surface components. Large-scale circulation patterns can mediate the impact of the forcing on Arctic climate dynamics. We employed a DL-based clustering approach to classify large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. To enhance the analysis of how these patterns impact the Arctic climate, the poleward moist static energy transport (PMSET) associated with the atmospheric circulation patterns was incorporated as an additional similarity metric in the clustering process. Furthermore, we developed a novel method to analyze the circulation patterns' contributions to various climatic parameter anomalies. Our findings indicate that the negative radiative forcing over Europe alters existing circulation patterns and their occurrence frequency without introducing new ones. Specifically, our analysis revealed that while the regional radiative forcing alters the occurrence frequencies of the circulation patterns, these changes are not the primary drivers of the forcing's impact on the Arctic parameters. Instead, it is the shifts in the mean spatial characteristics of the atmospheric circulation patterns, induced by the forcing, that predominantly determine the effects on the Arctic climate. Our methodology facilitates the uncovering of complex, nonlinear interactions within the climate system, capturing nuances that are often obscured in broader seasonal anomaly analyses. This approach enables a deeper understanding of the dynamics driving observed climatic anomalies and their links to specific atmospheric circulation patterns.

Oceanographic monitoring in Hornsund fjord, Svalbard

Abstract. Several climate-driven processes take place in the Arctic fjords. These include ice–ocean interactions, biodiversity and ocean circulation pattern changes, and coastal erosion phenomena. Conducting long-term oceanographic monitoring in the Arctic fjords is, therefore, essential for better understanding and predicting global environmental shifts. Here we address this issue by introducing a new hydrographic dataset from Hornsund, a fjord located in the southwestern part of the Svalbard archipelago. Hydrographic properties have been monitored with vertical temperature, salinity and depth profiles in several locations across the Hornsund fjord from 2015 to 2023. From 2016 onward, dissolved oxygen and turbidity data are available for the majority of casts. The dataset contributes to the so far infrequent observations, especially in spring and autumn, and extends the observations, typically concentrated in the central fjord, to the areas adjacent to the tidewater glaciers. Because sediment discharge from glaciers and land is an inseparable part of the glacier–ocean interactions, the suspended sediment concentration in the water column and the daily sedimentation rate adjacent to the tidewater glaciers are monitored with regular water sampling and bottom-moored sediment traps. Here we present the planning and execution of the monitoring campaign from the collection of the data to the postprocessing methods. All datasets are publicly available in the repositories referred to in the “Data availability” section of this paper.

Cocirculation and coinfection of multiple respiratory viruses during autumn and winter seasons of 2023 in Beijing, China: A retrospective study.

China experienced severe epidemics of multiple respiratory pathogens in 2023 after lifting "Zero-COVID" policy. The present study aims to investigate the changing circulation and infection patterns of respiratory pathogens in 2023. The 160 436 laboratory results of influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) from February 2020 to December 2023, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from June 2020 to December 2023, Mycoplasma pneumoniae, adenovirus, and human rhinovirus from January 2023 to December 2023 were analyzed. We observed the alternating epidemics of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza A virus (IAV), as well as the out-of-season epidemic of RSV during the spring and summer of 2023. Cocirculation of multiple respiratory pathogens was observed during the autumn and winter of 2023. The susceptible age range of RSV in this winter epidemic (10.5, interquartile range [IQR]: 5-30) was significantly higher than previously (4, IQR: 3-34). The coinfection rate of IAV and RSV in this winter epidemic (0.695%) was significantly higher than that of the last cocirculation period (0.027%) (p < 0.001). Similar trend was also found in the coinfection of IAV and SARS-CoV-2. The present study observed the cocirculation of multiple respiratory pathogens, changing age range of susceptible population, and increasing coinfection rates during the autumn and winter of 2023, in Beijing, China.

Gulf of Mexico larval dispersal: Combining concurrent sampling, behavioral, and hydrodynamic data to inform end-to-end modeling efforts through a Lagrangian dispersal model

We developed a Lagrangian larval dispersal model to estimate trajectories for eleven fish taxa inhabiting the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Dispersal models are at family level resolution for Scaridae, Lutjanidae, Scombridae, Labridae, Ophichthidae, and Ophidiidae, at genus level resolution for Hemanthias, and at species level resolution for Trachurus lathami, Decapterus punctatus, Katsuwonus pelamis, and Euthynnus alleteratus. Hydrodynamics are provided by the West Florida Coastal Ocean Model (WFCOM). Larval samples are from the spring and fall SEAMAP ichthyoplankton surveys from 2007 to 2011. The Lagrangian model was run backwards/forwards in time from the sampling event to estimate spawning/settlement locations. Results were used to update larval dispersal dynamics in the GOM Atlantis ‘end-to-end’ ecosystem model for twelve functional groups. We compare dispersal and non-dispersal scenarios in the Gulf of Mexico Atlantis model and find differences in stock abundance and distribution of fish. This highlights that the abundance and distribution of fishery resources are sensitive to changing circulation patterns. This work takes an interdisciplinary approach to understanding larval dynamics and their impacts on ecosystems at the intersection of predictive statistical modeling, hydrodynamic modeling, and ecosystem modeling.

A Lagrangian Analysis of the Sources of Rainfall Over the Horn of Africa Drylands

AbstractThe Horn of Africa drylands (HAD) are among the most vulnerable regions to hydroclimatic extremes. The two rainfall seasons—long and short rains—exhibit high intraseasonal and interannual variability. Accurately simulating the long and short rains has proven to be a significant challenge for the current generation of weather and climate models, revealing key gaps in our understanding of the drivers of rainfall in the region. In contrast to existing climate modeling and observation‐based studies, here we analyze the HAD rainfall from an observationally‐constrained Lagrangian perspective. We quantify and map the region's major oceanic and terrestrial sources of moisture. Specifically, our results show that the Arabian Sea (through its influence on the northeast monsoon circulation) and the southern Indian Ocean (via the Somali low‐level jet) contribute ∼80% of the HAD rainfall. We see that moisture contributions from land sources are very low at the beginning of each season, but supply up to ∼20% from the second month onwards, that is, when the oceanic‐origin rainfall has already increased water availability over land. Further, our findings suggest that the interannual variability in the long and short rains is driven by changes in circulation patterns and regional thermodynamic processes rather than changes in ocean evaporation. Our results can be used to better evaluate, and potentially improve, numerical weather prediction and climate models, and have important implications for (sub‐)seasonal forecasts and long‐term projections of the HAD rainfall.

The Role of the Circulation Patterns in Projected Changes in Spring and Summer Precipitation Extremes in the U.S. Midwest

Abstract Recent studies suggest springtime wet extremes and summertime dry extremes will occur more frequently in the U.S. Midwest, potentially leading to devastating agricultural consequences. To understand the role of circulation patterns in the projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes, the k-means clustering approach is applied to the large-ensemble experiments of Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2-LE), and ensemble projections of CMIP6. We identify two key atmospheric circulation patterns that are associated with the extremely wet spring and extremely dry summer in the U.S. Midwest. The springtime wet extremes are typically linked to baroclinic waves with a northward shift of the North American westerly jet and positive anomalies in sea level pressure over the western Atlantic, which favor the development of the Great Plains low-level jet. The summertime dry extremes are associated with the development of an anomalous ridge with suppressed storm tracks over the central United States. The projected increase in springtime wet extremes and summertime dry extremes can be attributed to significantly more frequent occurrences of the associated atmospheric regimes. Particularly, the intensity of wet extremes is expected to increase mainly due to the enhanced moisture flux from the Gulf of Mexico. The moisture budget analysis suggests that the precipitation extremes are mainly associated with the dynamic component of atmospheric circulation. CESM2-LE and CMIP6 exhibit good agreement in the projected changes in circulation patterns and precipitation extremes. Our results explain the mechanism of the projected changes in the Midwest seasonal precipitation and highlight the contribution of circulation patterns to hydroclimatic extremes.

Can Marine Hydrothermal Vents Be Used as Natural Laboratories to Study Global Change Effects on Zooplankton in a Future Ocean?

It is claimed that oceanic hydrothermal vents (HVs), particularly the shallow water ones, offer particular advantages to better understand the effects of future climate and other global change on oceanic biota. Marine hydrothermal vents (HVs) are extreme oceanic environments that are similar to projected climate changes of the earth system ocean (e.g., changes of circulation patterns, elevated temperature, low pH, increased turbidity, increased bioavailability of toxic compounds. Studies on hydrothermal vent organisms may fill knowledge gaps of environmental and evolutionary adaptations to this extreme oceanic environment. In the present contribution we evaluate whether hydrothermal vents can be used as natural laboratories for a better understanding of zooplankton ecology under a global change scenario.

Recent changes in circulation patterns and their opposing impact on extreme precipitation at the west coast of Norway

Understanding recent and future changes of extreme precipitation is essential for climate change adaptation. Here, we use 3800 extreme precipitation events produced by an ensemble seasonal prediction system. The ensemble represents the climate from 1981 to 2018 and we analyse 3-day maximum precipitation events in September–October–November for the west coast of Norway. Two dominant atmospheric patterns, described by an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, are related to the results of the extreme value statistics. The principal components of the second and third mode of EOFs have significant trends over the last 40 years, but with an opposing impact on the return values of extreme precipitation. This explains the observed stationarity of extreme precipitation over recent decades at the west coast of Norway, which was also found in previous studies. The second mode of EOFs also shows a relation to the sea-ice coverage in the Barents and Kara Seas, which suggests a connection between the decline of sea-ice to the changes in the atmospheric pattern.

Features and Evolution of Autumn Weather Regimes in the Southeast China

Autumn is the transitional season when the atmospheric circulation pattern changes from summer to winter. The temperature and precipitation in Southeastern China in autumn are significantly influenced by the change in circulation patterns, and both show significant uniqueness. The clustering method can be used to observe the changes of circulation patterns in detail and to observe and analyze the transition from warm to cold seasons from a detailed view of the daily circulation pattern perspective. This method may have important research implications on how to study the generation and dissipation of extreme weather events. The Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) method is used to a 500 hPa geopotential height and 850 hPa wind and sea level pressure for 1981–2020 to identify the characteristic weather patterns (WTs) in autumn (September–November) over Southeastern China. Characteristics of the captured WTs are also analyzed in terms of the distribution characteristics of weather patterns, occurrence frequency, typical progression, precipitation and extreme precipitation (EP), temperature and extreme high temperature (EHT), and the relationship with atmospheric teleconnection. Nine WTs were identified in autumn, which represents a series of weather situations consisting of troughs and ridges. On this basis, these WTs were used to carry out the differentiation of seasonal differences between early and late autumn. The maximum mean and extreme precipitation occur in several early season patterns (WT1, WT2, WT4, and WT7). It is highly likely that extremely high temperatures occur in the WT1 and WT2 patterns. The most common progression between WTs is WT7−WT1−WT2−WT4 in the early season. This seasonality allows us to distinguish between early and late seasons based on daily weather types. A preliminary trend analysis suggests that patterns in the early season occur more frequently and last longer in the early season, and patterns in the late season occur less frequently and later. That is, the longer cool season pattern is shifting to the shorter warm season pattern. In addition, the persistence of both cool and warm patterns increased during 2001–2020 relative to 1981–2000, and the risk of both flooding and drought occurrence is on the rise.

Tracking the impacts of precipitation phase changes through the hydrologic cycle in snowy regions: From precipitation to reservoir storage

Cool season precipitation plays a critical role in regional water resource management in the western United States. Throughout the twenty-first century, regional precipitation will be impacted by rising temperatures and changing circulation patterns. Changes to precipitation magnitude remain challenging to project; however, precipitation phase is largely dependent on temperature, and temperature predictions from global climate models are generally in agreement. To understand the implications of this dependence, we investigate projected patterns in changing precipitation phase for mountain areas of the western United States over the twenty-first century and how shifts from snow to rain may impact runoff. We downscale two bias-corrected global climate models for historical and end-century decades with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model to estimate precipitation phase and spatial patterns at high spatial resolution (9 km). For future decades, we use the RCP 8.5 scenario, which may be considered a very high baseline emissions scenario to quantify snow season differences over major mountain chains in the western U.S. Under this scenario, the average annual snowfall fraction over the Sierra Nevada decreases by &amp;gt;45% by the end of the century. In contrast, for the colder Rocky Mountains, the snowfall fraction decreases by 29%. Streamflow peaks in basins draining the Sierra Nevada are projected to arrive nearly a month earlier by the end of the century. By coupling WRF with a water resources model, we estimate that California reservoirs will shift towards earlier maximum storage by 1–2 months, suggesting that water management strategies will need to adapt to changes in streamflow magnitude and timing.

Attribution of surface ozone to NOx and volatile organic compound sources during two different high ozone events

Abstract. Increased tropospheric ozone (O3) and high temperatures affect human health during heat waves. Here, we perform a source attribution that considers separately the formation of German surface ozone from emitted NOx and volatile organic compound (VOC) precursors during two peak ozone events that took place in 2015 and 2018 which were associated with elevated temperatures. Results showed that peak ozone concentrations can be primarily attributed to nearby emissions of anthropogenic NOx (from Germany and immediately neighboring countries) and biogenic VOC. Outside of these high ozone episodes, baseline ozone concentrations are attributed primarily to long-range transport, with ozone due to remote anthropogenic NOx emissions and methane oxidation adding to the tropospheric ozone background. We show that a significant contribution to modeled O3 coming from German NOx or VOC emissions occurs mostly in southern Germany, emphasizing that the production of ozone depends on the local interplay between NOx and VOC precursors. Shipping activities in the Baltic and North seas have a large impact on ozone predicted in coastal areas, yet a small amount of ozone from these sources can also be seen far inland, showing the importance of transported ozone on pollution levels. We have also shown that changes in circulation patterns during the peak O3 episodes observed in Germany during the 2015 and 2018 heat waves can affect the contribution of different NOx emission sources to total O3; thus, the possible influence of multiple upwind source regions should be accounted for when mitigation strategies are designed. Our study also highlights the good correlation between ozone coming from German biogenic VOC emissions and total ozone, although the diurnal variation in the ozone coming from biogenic sources is not dominated by the diurnal variation in biogenic emissions, and the peaks of ozone from biogenic sources are disconnected from local emission peaks. This suggests that the formation of O3 from local German biogenic VOC emissions is not the sole factor that influences the ozone formation, and other meteorological and chemical processes affect the diel variation of ozone with a biogenic origin. Overall, this study helps to demonstrate the importance of a source attribution method to understand the sources of O3 in Germany and can be a useful tool that will help to design effective mitigation strategies.

Increased aerosol concentrations in the High Arctic attributable to changing atmospheric transport patterns

The Arctic environment has changed profoundly in recent decades. Aerosol particles are involved in numerous feedback mechanisms in the Arctic, e.g., aerosol-cloud/radiation interactions, which have important climatic implications. To understand changes in different Arctic aerosol types and number concentrations, we have performed a trend analysis of particle number size distributions, their properties, and their associated air mass history at Villum Research Station, northeastern Greenland, from 2010 to 2018. We found that, during spring, the total/ultrafine mode number concentration and the time air masses spent over the open ocean is significantly increasing, which can be ascribed to transport patterns changing to more frequent arrival from the ice-free Greenland Sea. We found that, during summer, the total/ultrafine mode number concentration, the occurrence of the Nucleation cluster (i.e. newly formed particles from gas to particle conversion), and the time air masses spent over the open ocean is significantly increasing. This can also be attributed to changing transport patterns, here with air masses arriving more frequently from Baffin Bay. Finally, we found that, during autumn, the ultrafine number concentration and the occurrence of the Pristine cluster (i.e. clean, natural Arctic background conditions) is significantly increasing, which is likely due to increasing amounts of accumulated precipitation along the trajectory path and decreasing time air masses spent above the mixed layer, respectively. Our results demonstrate that changing circulation and precipitation patterns are the factors predominantly affecting the trends in aerosol particle number concentrations and the occurrence of different aerosol types in northeastern Greenland.

Stratospheric ozone trends for 1984–2021 in the SAGE II–OSIRIS–SAGE III/ISS composite dataset

Abstract. After decades of depletion in the 20th century, near-global ozone now shows clear signs of recovery in the upper stratosphere. The ozone column, however, has remained largely constant since the turn of the century, mainly due to the evolution of lower stratospheric ozone. In the tropical lower stratosphere, ozone is expected to decrease as a consequence of enhanced upwelling driven by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, and this is consistent with observations. There is recent evidence, however, that mid-latitude ozone continues to decrease as well, contrary to model predictions. These changes are likely related to dynamical variability, but the impact of changing circulation patterns on stratospheric ozone is not well understood. Here we use merged measurements from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II), the Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imaging System (OSIRIS), and SAGE III on the International Space Station (SAGE III/ISS) to quantify ozone trends in the 2000–2021 period. We implement a sampling correction for the OSIRIS and SAGE III/ISS datasets and assess trend significance, taking into account the temporal differences with respect to Aura Microwave Limb Sounder data. We show that ozone has increased by 2 %–6 % in the upper and 1 %–3 % in the middle stratosphere since 2000, while lower stratospheric ozone has decreased by similar amounts. These decreases are significant in the tropics (&gt;95 % confidence) but not necessarily at mid-latitudes (&gt;80 % confidence). In the upper and middle stratosphere, changes since 2010 have pointed to hemispheric asymmetries in ozone recovery. Significant positive trends are present in the Southern Hemisphere, while ozone at northern mid-latitudes has remained largely unchanged in the last decade. These differences might be related to asymmetries and long-term variability in the Brewer–Dobson circulation. Circulation changes impact ozone in the lower stratosphere even more. In tropopause-relative coordinates, most of the negative trends in the tropics lose significance, highlighting the impacts of a warming troposphere and increasing tropopause altitudes.

Saharan Dust Deposition in Central Europe in 2016—A Representative Year of the Increased North African Dust Removal Over the Last Decade

Changes in circulation patterns associated with climate change have led to an increase in the frequency and intensity of Saharan dust events (SDEs) in the Carpathian Basin. The annual number of dust events was 4.2 on average between 1979 and 2010, while in the period of 2011–2018, it has increased to 10.3. This study presents a quantitative assessment of wet deposition of dust particles to Lake Balaton (Central Europe) with mineralogical and particle size distribution measurements. In addition to a comprehensive, systematic SDE identification process, rainwater samples were collected in 2016, and the particles on the filters were characterised using a range of analytical techniques. The atmospheric transport of particulates and moisture was evaluated using HYSPLIT Lagrangian trajectory model. XRD measurements revealed that during these events, the major minerals were quartz, kaolinite and 10-Å phyllosilicates. In addition, mineralogical source markers of arid dust (palygorskite and smectite) were also identified in majority of the analysed samples. Based on the results, wet deposition fluxes of dust particles were estimated for the region. 2016 was a typical and representative year for the decade, with twelve identified dust episodes. The synoptic patterns of the events fit well with the typical meteorological character of the North African dust intrusions with enhanced atmospheric meridionality described earlier. From the twelve episodes of 2016, seven were depositional events when wet deposition could be observed at ground level. Dust material of five episodes was analysed in detail, while particles of the two February wet deposition episodes were only granulometrically characterised. General uncertainties that hinder the characterisation of mineral dust in climate models were also observed in the granulometric and dust flux data of the sampled material. The particle size of the deposited dust was coarser than the upper cut-off level of grain size of the models. In addition, the discrepancies between measured and simulated deposition values clearly demonstrated the incorrect representation of dust flux in numerical simulations (partly due to inaccurate grain size data in the models).

A case study of paleoenvironmental interactions during the Miocene Climate Optimum in southwestern Paratethys

The marine system of the Mediterranean-Paratethys region in the Middle Miocene was influenced by the global climatic changes corresponding to the Miocene Climate Optimum. The latter was characterized by global warming of deep oceanic waters succeeded by a decrease of wind activity and ocean water circulation together with a decline in oceanic productivity. This study provides a detailed paleoenvironmental and depositional history of the Middle Miocene deposits from Mt. Požeška Gora (the east part of Croatia). Stable carbon and oxygen isotope data with foraminiferal fauna coupled together with palynological data indicate both seasonal and long-term changes in surface water temperatures, nutrient contents, and salinity. Furthermore, it was possible to determine two phases of Middle Miocene flooding in the studied marine system: (a) a shallow, high nutrient marginal sea strongly affected by freshwater inputs corresponding to the thermal maximum and periods with enhanced precipitation during the Miocene Climate Optimum, and (b) a younger deeper marginal sea with a developed seasonal stratification, rather intermediate nutrient availability and reduced fresh-water inputs. Based on the microbiostratigraphy and strontium isotope stratigraphy (87Sr/86Sr) coupled with previously published high-precision geochronology, the timing of the first and second flooding can be correlated with the Langhian age - ≤15.4 Ma and 14.6 Ma, respectively Possibly, the properties of the surficial waters that were described as a part of the flooding phases in individual time intervals can indicate changes in circulation patterns as a result of potential influence of the open-sea water masses.

Moisture transport and water vapour budget over the Sahara Desert

AbstractPrevious studies documented that near‐surface temperatures over the Sahara and Arabian deserts have been amplified in a warming climate, which is termed desert amplification (DA). DA has been linked possibly to the large‐scale greenhouse effects associated with increasing water vapour. With very limited moisture availability over the driest desert, two key questions unanswered are the desert moisture sources and the relative contributions of thermodynamic and dynamic processes to the changes in moisture transport. In this study, the atmospheric water vapour budget over the Sahara Desert from 1981–2020 is analysed to address these two questions. Results indicate that the water vapour content over the Sahara Desert has increased significantly since 1981, primarily during the boreal summer and in the lower to middle troposphere. The water vapour budget analysis indicates that in the boreal summer, most of the added moisture is transported into the Sahara Desert through the intensifying northerly inflow across the northern boundary of the desert, while the other boundaries are all export channels. The northerly inward moisture transport is associated with the ridge in the lower troposphere and the Saharan high above the lower troposphere. Further analysis indicates that both dynamic and thermodynamic factors contribute to the increase of the inward moisture flux at the northern boundary, while the associated interannual variability is dominated by the dynamic component related to the circulation pattern changes. The changes of the circulation pattern in the lower troposphere are manifested as the westward extension of the low over the Arabian Peninsula and as the strengthening of the Saharan high above the lower troposphere, both contributing to the increase of the northerly inward moisture transport.

Variability in the meridional overturning circulation at 32°S in the Pacific Ocean diagnosed by inverse box models

The meridional circulation and transport at 32°S in the Pacific Ocean in 1992 and 2017 are compared with analogous data from 2003 and 2009 computed by Hernández-Guerra and Talley (2016). The hydrographic data come from the GO-SHIP database and an inverse box model has been applied with similar constraints as in Hernández-Guerra and Talley (2016). In 1992, 2003 and 2017 the pattern of the overturning streamfunction and circulation are similar, but in 2009 the pattern of the circulation changes in the whole water column. The horizontal distribution of mass transports at all depths in 1992 and 2017 resembles the familiar shape of the “classical gyre” also observed in 2003 and is notably different to the “bowed gyre” found in 2009. The hydrographic data have been compared with data obtained from the numerical modelling outputs of ECCO, SOSE, GLORYS, and MOM. Results show that none of these models properly represents the “bowed gyre” circulation in 2009, and this change in circulation pattern was not observed during the entire length of model simulations. Additionally, the East Australian Current in the western boundary presents higher mass transport in the hydrographic data than in any numerical modelling output. Its poleward mass transport ranges from −35.1 ± 2.0 Sv in 1992 to −54.3 ± 2.6 Sv in 2003. Conversely, the Peru-Chile Current is well represented in models and presents an equatorward mass transport from 2.3 ± 0.8 Sv in 2009 to 4.4 ± 1.0 Sv in 1992. Furthermore, the Peru-Chile Undercurrent presents a more intense poleward mass transport in 2009 (−3.8 ± 1.2 Sv). In addition, the temperature and freshwater transports in 1992 (0.42 ± 0.12 PW and 0.26 ± 0.08 Sv), 2003 (0.38 ± 0.12 PW and 0.25 ± 0.02 Sv), and 2017 (0.42 ± 0.12 PW and 0.34 ± 0.08 Sv) are similar, but significantly different from those in 2009 (0.16 ± 0.12 PW and 0.50 ± 0.03 Sv, respectively). To clarify the causes of these different circulation schemes, a linear Rossby wave model is adopted, which includes the wind-stress curl variability as remote forcing and the response to sea surface height changes along 30°S.

Seasonal circulation regimes in the North Atlantic: Towards a new seasonality

AbstractEuropean climate variability is shaped by atmospheric dynamics over the North Atlantic and local processes. Better understanding their future seasonality is essential to anticipate changes in weather conditions for human and natural systems. We explore atmospheric seasonality over 1979–2017 and 1979–2100 with seasonal circulation regimes (SCRs), by clustering year‐round daily fields of Z500 from the ERA‐Interim reanalysis and 12 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models (historical and RCP8.5 runs). The spatial and temporal variability of SCR structures and associated patterns of surface air temperature are investigated. Climate models have biases but reproduce structures and evolutions of SCRs similar to the reanalysis over 1979–2017: decreasing frequency of winter conditions (starting later and ending earlier in the year) and the opposite for summer conditions. These changes are stronger over 1979–2100 than over 1979–2017, associated with a large increase of North Atlantic seasonal mean Z500 and temperature. When using more SCRs (more freedom in definition of seasonality), the changes over 1979–2100 correspond to a long‐term swap between SCRs, resulting in similar structures (annual cycle and spatial patterns) relative to the evolution of seasonal mean Z500 and temperature. To understand whether the evolution of SCRs is linked to uniform warming, or to changes in circulation patterns, we remove the calendar trend in the Z500 regional average to define SCRs based on detrended data (d‐SCRs). The temporal properties of d‐SCRs appear almost constant whereas their spatial patterns change, indicating that the calendar Z500 regional trend drives the evolutions of SCRs, and that changing spatial patterns in d‐SCRs account for the heterogeneity of this trend. Our study suggests that historical winter conditions will continue to decrease in the future while historical summer conditions continue to increase. However, it also suggests that the spatial and temporal patterns of SCRs would remain similar, relatively to the year‐round Z500 increase.

Determination of Long-Term (1993–2019) Sea Level Rise Trends Around the Korean Peninsula Using Ocean Tide-Corrected, Multi-Mission Satellite Altimetry Data

It is vital to improve estimations of long-term trends in global and regional sea level rise to help mitigate and adapt to climate change. Satellite altimetry data have been widely used for this purpose; however, data collected in regions with strong tidalmotions often suffer from significant aliasing effects unless they are sufficiently corrected using accurate ocean tide models.Long-term trends estimated from altimetry data are often also considerably affected by regional circulation changes, and by artificial effects arising from inconsistencies between different satellite missions. Here, we focused on two regions with high (&amp;gt;5 mm⋅yr–1) rates of long-term linear trend in sea level rise (LTSLR) around the Korean Peninsula (KP). We addressed the impacts of tidal correction and mission inconsistency in satellite altimetry data, and discussed the potential impacts of circulation changes on LTSLR. Because the LTSLR estimation is affected by the aliasing effects of altimetry data when the tidal motions are not corrected sufficiently, yet the correction depends on the performance of ocean tide models, we employed eight ocean tide models to correct altimetry data for comparison and validated the results against observations from 13 tide gauge (TG) stations around the KP. We also estimated LTSLR from 1993 to 2019 using annual mean sea level anomalies (SLAs) from two satellite (two-sat) and all 21 satellite (all-sat) missions, with corrections for ocean tides. The TPXO9 model showed the most reasonable spatial LTSLR rate pattern (∼3 mm⋅yr–1), with the smallest difference from TG observations. It performed best near the west coast where the tidal range was the largest and when using two-sat data, because of inconsistencies in all-sat altimetry data. In contrast, off the east coast, where the impact of tidal correction is negligible, the high (∼7 mm⋅yr–1) LTSLR rates were robust regardless of ocean tide models and altimetry missions, potentially driven by long-term changes in regional circulation. Our results highlight the importance of tidal correction and mission inconsistency for improving LTSLR estimations around the KP. They also have significant implications for determining regional sea level rise under changing circulation patterns, within and beyond the region.

Research on the Characteristics and Influence Factors of Autumn Continuous Rain in Qinghai Province

Using daily precipitation data of national meteorological stations in Qinghai Province and reanalysis data, the main patterns of autumn continuous rain (ACR) are extracted, and key SST areas and circulation factors are searched for to analyze the possible effects on the seasonal and sub-seasonal predictability of ACR in Qinghai Province. The factors with strong precursors mainly include sea surface temperature (SST), Arctic vortex, and subtropical high. The influence of oceanic factors on ACR is relatively independent, while there is an interaction between atmospheric circulation factors. The precursors in spring are from the equatorial east-central Pacific for the main pattern with consistent precipitation distribution, and the Indian Ocean for the pattern with “saddle type” distribution. SST anomalies from the Pacific and Indian Oceans force different circulation patterns that can enhance meridional circulation over Europe-Asia and lead to different precipitation pattern of ACR. The signals from the Arctic vortex and subtropical high in June to July are indicative for ACR. The southward, westward and strong Arctic vortex, together with the south-westward extension of subtropical high over the Atlantic and Pacific can promote more ACR in Qinghai Province. Under the SST forcing and configuration of high and low latitude circulation, the meridional circulation continues to be weak, and the latitudinal circulation to be enhanced over the Eurasia in the early period, and the circulation pattern changes from type-W to type-C, which lead to positive anomaly of ACR in Qinghai Province.